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#今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ CPI met expectations, and the market chose the most boring outcome The data is out. Overall CPI annual rate is 3.4%, core CPI annual rate is 2.5%, month-on-month 0.1%. Not too high, not too low, neither cold nor hot, right in the middle of expectations. The market waited a week, only to get a "nothing changed" number. $XAU didn’t break above 4417, $BTC didn’t crash below 63800. Both bulls and bears were holding their breath waiting for CPI to give direction, but the data came out and both sides were left empty-handed. What does a CPI that meets expectations mean? It means the September rate hike expectations won’t heat up significantly, nor cool down significantly. CME data shows the probability of keeping rates unchanged is about 52%, and the probability of a 25 basis point hike is about 48%—a near 50-50 split, same as before the data. The day nonfarm payrolls turned negative, half the table was flipped; CPI didn’t flip the other half, nor did it set the table straight. The market continues sideways, waiting for the next data. Bitcoin is still oscillating between 63500-65000. Gold is grinding around 4400. ETH is hovering near 1900. Direction? No direction. The only change is: the sideways period will be extended. CPI didn’t provide direction, so the market can only keep waiting—waiting for PPI, waiting for retail sales, waiting for the next Fed statement. Positions remain. No movement. After waiting a month for data, the market chose the most boring answer. So, keep waiting.