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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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其实这场关于俄乌战争的会谈,没有俄罗斯代表参加,本质上就是特朗普拉着欧洲盟友做背书,让乌克兰暂时服软,换取俄罗斯的能源出口 特朗普:小泽,忍一忍,我现在需要大鹅,我需要先从中东问题上走出来,不然大家都不好过 欧洲盟友:没关系,忍一忍,搞定伊朗我们在帮你对抗大鹅 小泽:为什么最后受伤的总是我? 看似是商量,实则乌克兰在这个环境中能有多少自主选择的权利呢?#美俄达成柴油供应安排,霍尔木兹风险仍未解
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
Sino-Russian cooperation? In reality, it's just drinking poison to quench thirst!
Russia's agreement to export diesel to the US is actually a diplomatic and political tactic, forcing the US to alienate the Ukrainian people. Trump understands this, but to address the impact of current energy prices on the midterm elections, he is willing to sacrifice Ukraine's interests. As for Russia, while exporting crude oil seems to help the US, it is actually a temporary fix and can secure more funding to suppress Ukraine. As for Iran, Iran would not say much if it increased some material and military aid #美俄达成柴油供应安排, the risk in Hormuz remains unresolved. In terms of energy data, last week was a series of optimistic energy export figures, but this week they have started to worsen. As I said last week, improving energy flows in the data may not truly solve the real problems. Currently, according to the Financial Times, after Iran expanded its energy transport restrictions to the entire Persian Gulf this week, the data has worsened again, recovering from 74% before the war last week to 58%. If Iran continues to harass the Persian Gulf, Energy export remains an issue. On the other hand, many people say that energy exports from the Gulf of Mexico could replace the Middle East. In theory, yes, but more time is needed to increase energy production capacity. As of Reuters, the risk of energy transportation costs has spread globally. Currently, transportation costs from the Gulf of Mexico to China have increased by 300% compared to mid-August. In fact, the energy supply side cannot be changed, which is not good for the current situation between the US and Iran. For us investors, what we hope for is oil prices returning to normal and easing the burden on the global economy and finance

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