$HYPE 【This ID's Viewpoint】
HYPE has fallen steadily from the high of 95.267, dipping to 82.613 before staging a corrective rebound. Currently, it is oscillating back and forth near a secondary minor consolidation zone. This rebound is merely a breather after the decline; the price has not retraced to the previous major purple consolidation zone, indicating limited bullish momentum. The overall major trend remains weak.
Entry: Attempt a short if the price fails to sustain a breakout above the minor consolidation zone.
Stop Loss: Set above the recent rebound minor high.
Chan Theory Structure:
On the 30-minute timeframe, after reaching 95.267, there was a strong downward leg that broke below the previous major purple consolidation zone, hitting a low of 82.613. Subsequently, a secondary purple rebound minor consolidation zone formed, representing a typical corrective oscillation within a downtrend. The price has consistently failed to touch the lower boundary of the upper major consolidation zone. The momentum of the secondary rebound is gradually fading. As long as the price cannot break upward out of this minor consolidation zone, the downtrend structure remains intact.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation:
During the prior downward sell-off phase, bearish candles showed increased volume, indicating concentrated selling pressure. However, during this rebound and oscillation phase, volume fails to expand on upward moves; each rally candle shows decreasing volume, while volume on pullback bearish candles does not significantly shrink. This suggests weak buying interest from bottom-fishing funds, with more short-term funds engaging in back-and-forth trading. The selling pressure above remains tangible.
Key Observation:
Focus on this secondary minor consolidation zone. Only a volume-backed breakout above this zone signals a chance for strength reversal; if the price breaks down below the lower boundary of this minor consolidation zone, a new downward leg is highly likely to begin.
