Prices have risen, but money is relocating
Looking again at the money. $ETH holdings saw a net outflow of 669 million USD over 7 days; on 10/09, the day of the sell-off, 397 million USD fled in a single day, and on 10/13 another 271 million USD exited. The strange thing is that on 10/13 the price rose 4%, yet money was flowing out: the rise was not driven by new long entries, but by shorts buying back to close positions and exiting themselves. The rebound from covering shorts is quick but weak; whether it can upgrade to a true rally depends on whether new money takes over after breaking through the 2,586 level. The daily average funding rate is 0.0006%, roughly zero; longs are not crowded, so the upward space is what shorts have given up.
Earnings reports opening, CPI on the way
A quick note on external movements. On Monday, the Dow Jones rose 0.38%, while the S&P and Nasdaq were flat or slightly down; A-shares declined on low volume, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.43% at 3,797, and the ChiNext index pressed down 2.61%; Hong Kong futures also remained flat overnight. The world is waiting for two events: earnings reports from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi, and Wells Fargo on 10/13, and the CPI release on 10/14. Cleveland Fed's Harnack is still calling for rates to keep rising, the hawkish tone remains. The crypto market itself is not doing well either; spot ETFs saw outflows last week, after absorbing 1.7 billion USD in late September, activity has basically stalled, and sentiment remains in the fear zone. Don't pretend to be a hero in front of the data wall; keep positions low and hold half overnight before the CPI release.
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