#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
CPI has already exploded, tonight's PPI is the second test of inflation
Yesterday's CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, exceeding expectations, directly pushing the October rate hike probability to 52.9% and the year-end rate hike probability to 94.3%. PPI is upstream production inflation, representing whether costs will continue to be passed on to the consumer side. It is tonight's second confirmation of inflation and directly determines whether this round of decline will continue to ferment.
There are three scenarios to observe market reactions:
1. PPI (including core PPI) rises beyond expectations (bearish)
Upstream costs continue to rise, the market will believe inflation is very sticky, and the CPI rebound is not a short-term disturbance caused by oil prices. Rate hike expectations continue to rise, US Treasury yields and the US dollar strengthen again. BTC and ETH continue to be under pressure, ETH will fall more, altcoin selling pressure intensifies, long leverage continues to liquidate, and panic spreads.
2. PPI meets expectations (neutral to slightly bearish)
Data does not further amplify inflation, but there is no cooling signal either. The market will maintain the current rate hike pricing, and the market will most likely oscillate and bottom out. Short-term volatility is small, funds continue to wait and see, rebound strength is weak, and it is difficult to achieve sustained recovery.
3. PPI is significantly below expectations (bullish rebound)
Upstream production prices fall back, indicating this round of CPI rebound is only a one-time energy disturbance, and inflation has not spread continuously. Rate hike expectations will slightly decline, US Treasury yields will fall. BTC and ETH will see a recovery rebound, ETH has stronger elasticity, but it is only emotional repair, not a trend reversal, and the market will remain cautious.
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