In just two days, BTC spot ETF has shifted from net inflows to net outflows, totaling 773.5 million outflows, with almost all funds that came in last week withdrawn. This is not retail investors emotionally dumping, but institutional buying retreating.
During the same period, long-term holding addresses reduced their BTC holdings by over 50,000 coins, and institutions have also paused buying. Interestingly, BTC and gold are weakening simultaneously; currently, everyone prefers holding cash, not just a simple sector rotation.
This round cannot be called a panic sell-off; it looks more like the market actively deleveraging. Institutions are reducing allocations, old coins are changing hands, and previous bottom-support expectations have disappeared. These three factors combined mean the resistance above will be greater than expected.
ETF outflows are slowing, large holders are reducing less, the Federal Reserve is signaling a relatively moderate stance, BTC is holding support, and ETH has a chance to catch up with a rebound.
Funds continue to flow out, large holders keep selling, gold and BTC fall in sync, market liquidity tightens, and rebounds are opportunities to reduce positions.
Key signals to watch going forward include whether ETF flows can turn from negative to positive, whether the rate of reduction by long-term holding addresses slows down, and whether the ETH/BTC ratio can stabilize.
Be cautious of continued outflows combined with price breakdowns, security incidents triggering market trust crises, and the market falling instead of rising after decisions are implemented.
At this stage, prioritize risk control and don’t rush to chase rebounds. Subsequent ETF fund flows and the K-line after the FOMC decision will tell us whether this adjustment is just a short pause or if the market rhythm has fundamentally changed. $BTC$ETH
