The market already expected the Fed to hold rates steady. What matters now is whether December brings another surprise.
BTC is trading around a critical zone between $80K and $81.5K. A move back above $82K with solid volume would be a better sign of recovery. Without that confirmation, it's too early to call this a trend reversal.
ETH is still struggling below $2,400, with continued ETF outflows adding pressure.
#OctFOMCDecisionDueSoon
牛马掘金
October's decision to hold steady was almost a foregone conclusion, but the real knife is hidden in Waller's wording — the probability of a rate hike in December has soared to 84%.
$BTC: $80,920. Risk was "reduced" ahead of the meeting, briefly dropping below 80,000 to $79,800. The $80,000-$81,500 range is the cost basis for ETF holders and treasury companies, forming the first psychological support wall; above $82,000 is the previous resistance turned support level, and without a volume breakout, any rebound is just a correction, not a reversal.
$ETH: $2,353. $2,400 is the key intraday round number and also the previous top-to-bottom conversion level. ETH ETFs have seen net outflows for the fourth consecutive week, totaling $220.7 million. Staking yields lack appeal in a high risk-free rate environment, casting doubt on the sustainability of the rebound.
$SOL: $102. $100 is a barely held defensive line, pressured before the meeting. Historical data shows that after the September rate hike, SOL rebounded 18.7% within 7 days, showing much greater elasticity than BTC and ETH — but the premise is "uncertainty eliminated," not "uncertainty escalated."
Summary: The decision itself will not bring direction. Any hint from Waller at the press conference about a December rate hike is the real variable determining whether BTC can hold $80,000 and SOL can hold $100. Holding steady is known; the wording is unknown.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布
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