Friends watching the market in the early morning are probably breaking out in a cold sweat. After the sharp drop, the market has entered a phase of both long and short liquidation and repair. Although the leverage clearing is nearing its end, the trend reversal still needs confirmation. Liquidity is extremely poor in the early morning, making extreme spikes likely.
BTC: Current price around 77,200, the market is under extreme pressure. $104 million liquidated in 24 hours, with longs accounting for $83 million, a long squeeze. The support at 76,500 is the short-term cost line for holders and the critical long-short lifeline; resistance is at 77,800. Strategy: If 76,100 holds, lightly try going long; if broken, look towards 74,000. Strictly avoid chasing the rally to prevent false breakouts.
ETH: Current price around 2,229, showing extreme weakness. $77.49 million liquidated in 24 hours, longs $50.19 million, longs stubbornly holding on. Smart money long-short ratio is only 27.9%, shorts hold absolute advantage. 2,200 is the psychological defense line; if lost, look to 2,150; rebound between 2,280-2,300 is an escape zone, definitely not a point to add positions.
SOL: Current price around 95, retail investors are being crushed. $10.75 million liquidated in 24 hours, longs $8.22 million. 4-hour long-short ratio is as high as 3.71, retail investors stubbornly adding positions, heavy overhead resistance above, prone to downward spikes to shake out positions. Strategy: Short when rebound is resisted at 96.5-97.0, defend above 98, target 93.5; only consider reversal if it holds above 100.
Summary: Leverage has been mostly cleared, the cost-effectiveness of short chasing has declined, but the $3.2 billion unfrozen assets remain a looming threat. Avoid frequent operations in the early morning, do not chase shorts or catch longs, wait for BTC’s 76,500 battle result before taking action.
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