The biggest recent impact on the market has to be the midterm elections, which will directly affect the US stock market and
$BTC
trends!
The probability of the Democrats regaining control of both chambers is far ahead, and the market has already priced in this expectation!
The key focus now is whether the Senate's control can be clearly determined by the morning of November 4th. The baseline scenario is the Democrats taking the Senate; the bigger trade on expectation divergence is if the Republicans hold the Senate.
Scenario 1: Democrats take both the House and Senate, currently the highest probability at about 71%.
Note here: a Democratic sweep of Congress mainly benefits clean energy, photovoltaics, and energy storage sectors. For AI infrastructure stocks like MU, SNDK, STX, VRT, and CEG, this mostly means short-term valuation and regulatory sentiment shocks. The AI capital expenditure trend will not end immediately because of one election.
Scenario 2: Democrats take the House, Republicans hold the Senate, current probability about 24%, which I also consider the most favorable outcome for market stability.
Historically, the market tends to like this "neither side can mess with the other" structure. According to Morgan Stanley statistics, under a Republican president with a divided Congress, the S&P 500's average historical gain one year after midterms is about 23%, but this can only be used as historical reference and not directly applied!
Scenario 3: Republicans hold both the House and Senate, probability only about 6%, but this is the most unexpected result with the greatest market impact.
Since the market has heavily priced in a Democratic victory, if Republicans hold both chambers, financials, energy, AI, and crypto sectors may see a rapid catch-up rally.
Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more
