Fear index at 26, long-short struggle at the 76K defense line
BTC near 78,000, ETH near 2,280. Fear and greed index at 26, firmly holding the fear zone.
Funds and on-chain: BTC ETF net outflow of 399 million (BlackRock outflow of 405 million), ETH outflow of 140 million. BlackRock-related addresses transferred 724 million BTC and ETH to Coinbase, ETF redemption pressure has shifted on-chain.
Leverage structure is dangerous: 24h liquidations at 367 million, longs account for 288 million. The most dangerous is that despite price drops, longs are aggressively adding positions (Binance long-short ratio rose to 2.73). Below 75,900 and 75,100 there is a large concentration of long liquidations, which are very likely to be swept.
Macro: This week features midterm elections, non-farm payrolls, etc., setting the tone for a December rate hike. Any rebound before the event can only be considered a correction.
Key levels:
BTC: Core support at 76,300-76,500 below; a break targets the 75,900 liquidation zone; resistance above at 78,500.
ETH: Mid-term support at 2,170-2,200 below; resistance at 2,390 above.
In short: Funds are withdrawing, longs add more as prices fall, rebound quality is poor. Do not chase longs; wait for BTC to stabilize at 76,300 or break above 78,500 before lightly trying longs. Control positions before macro events are finalized.
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