0xNPC(100xLog)
0xNPC(100xLog)
Don't catch a falling knife
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$BTC Scenario Simulation (Next 4–8 Weeks)
Strong scenario (probability 30–35%):
Spot ETF funds continue to flow in, BTC daily prices have closed above $80,000 and broken through $82,931, breaking the bear market structure. Market sentiment has turned bullish across the board, with targets set at $90,000–$100,000; challenging the ATH within the year is not impossible. Triggers: Substantive progress of the CLARITY Act, the Fed sending dovish signals, and weekly net inflows of ETFs remain high.
Baseline scenario (45–50% probability):
The price is oscillating in the $70,000–$80,000 range to digest this round of gains, testing the effectiveness of the $71,500 (200-day moving average) and the $68,749–$69,061 support zone. If it can hold above $66,885, it is expected to be strong in the medium term; If it falls below it, a return to the $61,500–$64,000 range should be observed.
Vulnerable scenario (probability 15–20%):
The rebound met resistance at $80,000–$83,000, with long positions taking profits combined with macro bearishness, causing the price to quickly fall below $66,885, testing $61,500–$62,500 or even $58,000. If $58,000 is breached, the head and shoulders top structure will restart, with an extreme measurement target of $41,266. Triggers: regulatory bills stalled, Fed hawkish action beyond expectations, long-term yields surging again.
