陈桂林谈交易

X账号名称：陈桂林

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1. Boomerang Some viewpoints and decisions often require a certain amount of time to verify whether they are correct; So, I know you're anxious, but really, don't be; because looking too anxious is unappealing, like you're about to lose money. Only being calm and composed looks like making money. I have to say, time has validated my value, and likewise, it has validated the value of my followers; you could say that those who have been following Guilin for a long time are basically a high-quality group on this Simplified Chinese X platform. If they can also deduce Guilin's tactics and strategies from Guilin X's writings, then they can be considered masters among masters. 2. Still not popping the champagne, but not far off We don't brag, just state facts. Recently, during this phase, Guilin's 100% clear viewpoints are as follows (in chronological order): 1. At the end of July, bottom-fished storage, clearly stating storage was just a rebound, not a reversal; after the rebound, it would still fall; absolute focus returned to the original family (forget it, skipping details, July is too far back, let's just talk about September since old followers know I bottom-fished the coin's low point). 2. Late September, clearly stated the crypto market might enter a high-difficulty mode (unexpectedly, crypto wasn't difficult at all; the difficulty was in other markets outside crypto). The corresponding strategy was to hold spot positions steady to endure drawdowns, stop trading in the tactical positions to prevent erosion, and made two tactical moves to control spot drawdowns, which were only slightly higher than Bitcoin's. 3. Late October, believed the correction might be nearing its end (vaguely correct, because this correctness is never a single point but a time period, a range). Posted that several things needed close observation: ① Oil price decline (clearly oil price was going to fall) ② Midterm election results finalized (who wins doesn't matter, the main thing is it ends) ③ APEC meeting (not started yet) All of these are gradually being confirmed one by one. After comprehensive observation, the clear conclusion is: crypto remains the relatively most worthwhile market to invest time, energy, and money in at this stage. First, no touching gold, silver, or oil; then clearly no semiconductors; and clearly the capital scale doesn't allow me to touch big tech (Google). As for US stocks, they were never in my trading scope. (This is a strategic choice) Think about it, the overall market hasn't been good for over a month, but as long as you avoid gold, silver, oil, and semiconductors, and stay only in crypto, although you are also experiencing drawdowns, how much less money have you lost? How much less energy has been eroded? Answering one question: why no shorting? I am currently trading a large-scale uptrend since the 57th (probably referring to a date or level). In this large-scale uptrend, I won't trade minor pullbacks; the scale is too small, and the effort and psychological battle invested won't be proportional to the returns; Could shorting make money? I believe it definitely could, but if making this small money affects the overall mid-term strategy, it would be a loss greater than the gain. This is called being penny-wise and pound-foolish. 3. What to expect next The crypto market's movement has validated my prediction: at this stage, crypto remains the relatively strong market among all global markets. The others don't matter; it's just cycles. If they go bearish first, then they go bearish first. Overall, it follows the big environment (Nasdaq, S&P, US stocks), but locally relatively stronger. No need to look mid-term; if I didn't expect a rise, I would have sold my spot positions long ago; Short-term, it's about whether it can break through 81,500, how it breaks through 81,500, and what kind of pullback it makes after breaking through; if all these meet expectations, then this could be the start of the next large-scale uptrend. Currently, it looks very strong. Still E Guard. ethereum:native

Chen Guilin's Trading Notes October 31, 2026 (October Summary) I. Summary The overall approach since late September has been to watch more and act less, and October continued with this approach throughout the month; What I commend myself for this time is that my execution matched my words—I didn’t just say I wouldn’t trade but secretly open positions; The result was: with a high allocation in high-volatility assets, I achieved: BTC drawdown < portfolio drawdown < ETH drawdown. II. Main Strategy 1. In crypto, I maintain the view that BTC’s overall uptrend since 57 (thousand) is not over, so the principle is not to exit, but in difficult market conditions, avoid reckless moves and control drawdowns when possible (hedging, doing T). 2. Contraction: Previously, I traded many assets outside crypto, including Intel, LITE, QCOM, COHR, gold, silver, crude oil, etc. Initially, I was trading while withdrawing. After a stop loss on LITE, all flexible positions stopped operating; seeing crypto relatively strong, I shrank all positions to crypto, kept an eye on other markets but did not trade. III. Market View 1. As mentioned before, AI adjustments affect not only semiconductors but even giants like Google can move 10% intraday. I said they would drag the Nasdaq down, and with Nasdaq down, BTC and crypto cannot rally alone. Moreover, crude oil is still rising, gold and silver are still falling; the overall market environment is extremely harsh. Under these conditions, BTC maintaining its current state is already strong. 2. Currently (see Chart 1), the Nasdaq correction has three parts (ABC). The third part’s decline is nearly a 1:1 ratio with the first part and has reached the daily SMA200 line. If you believe the US stock market is entering a major bear, this line can be seen as the bull-bear boundary. If you believe the market won’t enter a major bear, then the false break below this line is a giveaway opportunity. 3. My personal view is that the market is full of opportunities (golden chances), but unfortunately gold itself has fallen sharply, so bottom fishing requires thorough research. What I want to say is: the strong get stronger. At least crypto has remained very resilient while the global financial markets have been adjusting. When the overall environment improves, BTC-led crypto will only perform stronger. Therefore, I will continue to focus on crypto for the foreseeable future. After all, real traders have limited energy and even more limited capital; what the market has taught us recently is that diversification can spread risk but also spread losses. The hotter the market was before, the more terrifying the crash will be. All we can do is what we can: respect the market, reduce leverage in difficult conditions, avoid frequent trading, try to mitigate risk (which can never be fully avoided), lie low, and wait for the spring after the winter.