诸葛投研✊
诸葛投研✊
17年进圈，9年web3老玩家，券商原持牌投顾。合约爆过仓，现在只玩主流币现货，向段永平看齐。
37Following
1.7Kfollowers
Feed
Livestream
Feed
This drop in $ETH has even triggered the ancient whales to come out. Early this morning, the whales made a big bottom-fishing move, with an average buy-in price of 2248, and the first wave bought up 2221 ETH.
So although ETH is currently stuck in a descending channel, with the price below all short-term moving averages and the price having fallen below the 2250 bullish lifeline, there's no need to panic. The faith in ETH as a major coin is strong; when it hits the bottom, buyers will step in, and when the market turns, it will rise quickly.
Just like $BTC today, after breaking below the 7-day and 25-day moving averages yesterday, it has been oscillating around 76,000 today. Of course, large-scale bulls haven't entered the market yet, so the bears still dominate over the bulls.
ETHSpot
+4.35 USDT
+24.20%In the market, when some people get cut, others get to eat meat. Today, these three memes each have their own script driving their rise. Some friends asked me if they can follow along, so let's first talk about why they are rising:
$ARB The community just passed a staking proposal, locking 100 million ARB into the staking mechanism, which effectively removes part of the circulating supply. Institutions recognize this kind of circulating supply reduction as a positive, not just pure sentiment. But it’s still lingering at a low level; there’s a gap between the proposal and the price realization. Small spot positions can be laid in ambush, but don’t chase high expecting a reversal.
$PEPE Justin Sun has become its largest individual holder, with on-chain value showing over 50 million USD. The celebrity effect ignited it instantly, combined with a technical rebound from previous overselling. I think this is currently purely sentiment-driven, and once the sentiment fades, it’s easy to see a sharp pullback. You can buy a little as a lottery ticket position.
$DOOD The token of the veteran NFT blue-chip Doodles surged strongly today, relying on IP consensus and capital rotation, but without fundamental catalysts. It’s purely NFT sector rotation arbitrage, with extreme volatility, suitable for quick in-and-out trades, not for long-term holding.
Each coin’s reason for rising is different: ARB locks circulating supply, PEPE trades on celebrity hype, DOOD trades on IP rotation.
I myself have been liquidated before on meme coins, and since then I treat memes as observation objects, not positions. Now I only focus on mainstream spot holdings; for these kinds, just analyze and watch the show, and decide how to act on your own.
Yesterday, the US stock market experienced an epic crash, triggering a wave of panic! The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index suffered its worst single-day drop since March 2020. The reason behind this sell-off lies in Washington:
Funds are preemptively trading on AI regulatory expectations, with the Democratic Party taking control of both chambers, signaling a clear tightening of policies. However, I believe the US will not outright ban AI or voluntarily give up its global AI leadership.
But the panic still caused a major shakeup in the US stock market:
$xNVDA, the core stock of the entire AI rally, dropped over 9%, losing more than 400 billion in market value in one day. Although it wasn't the worst performer, its valuation relies heavily on continuous capacity expansion, and with the main narrative weakening, it was the first to be hit.
$xTSLA, the worst performer among the seven giants, fell over 10%. Elon Musk tends to favor relaxed AI regulations, but with the Democrats controlling Congress, the discount for upcoming regulatory investigations and policy tightening is already reflected in the stock price.
$xSNDK is an extreme example of this industry chain sell-off, plunging 22%. Storage is a consumable for AI servers, and with capital expenditure expectations downgraded, it often suffers the hardest hits.
In my view, this is the first round of repricing at the AI policy inflection point, not an ordinary pullback. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index breaking down means the market is selling future narratives, not current earnings. What happens after a stock market crash? History tells us: the market will eventually recover. #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅
The crypto space is not short of burn announcements; you can tell just by looking on-chain. Among BNB, HYPE, and UNI, who is really moving chips out? Why is UNI rising against the trend?
$BNB's burn mechanism is solidly implemented, with 37 rounds totaling 1.646 million tokens burned, and the target reduced to 100 million tokens. However, daily active users dropped 14% after the trust shock; 700 is the key defense level, and only if it doesn't break can there be a chance for recovery.
$HYPE has strict burn and buyback rules, and reserve earnings are still increasing. But the FDV valuation is pushed to 99 times, and the positive news is already priced in; it's not recommended to chase above 83.
$UNI actually increased burn volume on the day of the market crash, burning 62,000 tokens yesterday, more than twice the median of the past 30 days, with a cumulative burn of 113.8 million tokens. But the counter-trend volume increase seems more like fees rising with volatility rather than an independent positive factor; don't get ahead of the price before it follows the burn.
Don't just look at burns; only those who can continuously take chips off the market and lock them up can truly sustain a premium.
Hahahahaha, Teacher Cang has also entered $BTC. I said it's a big positive, who agrees, who disagrees?
I strongly suggest Teacher Cang avoid contracts, or else you'll have to go back to your old job 🤐
BTCSpot
+160.4 USDT
+6.43%That post-election rebound didn't even last a day. Last night, US tech stocks collapsed, and the just-emerging crypto recovery was immediately pushed back down. Today, let's talk about why this rebound died so quickly.
$BTC dropped from 81,000 to 76,000 in one hour. On the surface, it looks like a correction, but in reality, it was a chain liquidation of longs. In 24 hours, the entire network liquidated 1.09 billion, 87% of which were longs, about 950 million forcibly closed, 210,000 people liquidated. The 75,000–75,400 range is a dense liquidation zone; 73,000 is the first line of defense; 79,000 is today's biggest pain point with 2.7 billion options expiring.
$ETH fell the hardest among the three, breaking below 2,250 back to pre-election lows, with about 209 million USD liquidated in 24 hours. The largest single liquidation happened at a neighboring exchange, worth 10.9364 million USD. Although ETFs still saw inflows of 148 million on Thursday, prices kept falling. The buyers were shorts covering, not institutions.
$SOL dropped to around 90, but after Alpenglow, active addresses still posted 1.88 million, and adoption hasn't stopped, so this is a macro overkill. The drop is a liquidity event, not a fundamental problem. It might lead the rally after the non-farm payroll data is released.
This rebound was supported by shorts covering; once the longs were liquidated, it collapsed. The next data-driven volatility should be Friday's non-farm payrolls.
Woke up from a sleep, and the group chat exploded again. This time, it's not just the crypto circle; even the US stock market took a heavy hit!
The most direct trigger was: in the midterm elections, the Democratic Party took control of both the House and Senate and the Texas governor. The new governor promised during the campaign to suspend data center approvals. Goldman Sachs calculated that Texas alone accounts for a quarter of all data center expansions in the US.
Previously, the core story behind the AI rally was that computing power could expand infinitely. Now that expansion expectations are being suppressed, the underlying logic supporting the AI rally is shaken, and computing power and semiconductor stocks were hit first.
The crypto market also fell along with it. Many mining companies have long transformed into AI data centers, and many institutions hold AI computing power stocks and crypto assets in the same portfolio. When funds flee computing power stocks, they prioritize selling the most liquid $BTC and $ETH. This time, the billion-level liquidations were mostly long positions, representing a leveraged stampede that amplified the decline, not new negative news.
In my view, this restrictive policy still needs to go through procedures and legal battles, but the market has already priced in this negative news in advance, representing a preemptive sell-off. #美中期选举后AI监管分歧引发行情波动
$BTC hasn't been happy for even 2 days, and now it has dropped back again 😂 #非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？
This morning I was discussing how the whale accounts on Hyperliquid are stubborn, saying their $BTC long positions are 498 million, but the shorts are more than double, with 902 million in short orders.
They said this batch of big players has piled up huge short orders below 80,000, so if the rebound continues with volume, it would be ready fuel for a short squeeze.
Turns out I was the clown 🤡, only happy for one day, the unrealized gains have dropped back again.
Of course, this is normal, after all, the spot ETFs of BTC and $ETH have had net outflows in the past 3 days. Especially BTC, which has had a net outflow of 1.157 billion USD. And yesterday's rebound volume was insufficient, and it didn't bring back institutional buying, so it was inherently fragile.
Whatever, anyway I still have 40% of my position with orders at 75,000 yesterday that didn't get filled. I’ll just take this drop as an opportunity to keep bottom fishing.
+225.53 USDT
+10.78%Snapshot at Nov 05, 2026, 23:03
$XSONY Sony's earnings report superficially shows profits exceeding expectations, but there is a crucial change: console hardware sales are declining, and the profit focus has shifted to software and subscription services. #索尼Q2营业利润增长45%，上调全年业绩指引
This quarter's Sony earnings report is impressive, with revenue and operating profit both rising about 30% quarter-over-quarter. This growth is not due to currency effects; the core driver is the gaming business. The gaming segment's profits have grown significantly, with the profit model shifting to subscription services and in-house developed games. The user base is stable, and with GTA6 about to launch, the market has expectations for future earnings in this area.
The music business is growing steadily, serving as a stable foundation that continues to contribute profits. The company has also raised its performance targets and increased dividends, which is a solid way to reward shareholders. However, there are risks to watch: rising storage chip prices are an industry-wide issue. Apple has already warned of this risk, and next year the increased costs will squeeze future profit margins.
Many people focus on the volatility of token markets, but that is just small-scale speculation. The real pricing is still determined by the US stock market. The fundamentals of the earnings report are good, so I think the market will likely open higher tonight. However, whether the market can hold depends on whether the pressure from chip costs outweighs the positive expectations brought by GTA6.
Sony's core value now lies in its IP and subscription cash flow, not in gaming hardware. If you want to participate in this opportunity, don't chase the emotional highs at the market open.
Once Circle's Q3 earnings report was released, the stock price surged pre-market and then fell back. My view is simple: the reason this market outperformed expectations is driven by the token issuance narrative, not stablecoins. #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49%
Regarding the earnings report, here are answers to the three most concerned questions:
1. Did revenue really increase?
Yes, it reached a new quarterly high of 865 million. However, 182 million of that was one-time income from selling their own ARC tokens. Excluding this, the core business revenue actually declined.
2. Is there a problem with USDC itself?
The coin is normal. On-chain transaction volume has grown nearly 50% over the past year, and about 80% of all market transactions use USDC; after the incident next door, there was still a net inflow of 2.5 billion within 24 hours, so it remains relatively stable. But circulation volume is stagnant, and market share has been eroded. People use it as cash to spend, not as an asset for investment.
3. Will it rise or fall next?
USDC will always be one dollar, so asking about rise or fall is meaningless. The real question is CRCL: a company that lives off interest hitting a rate cut cycle, and in Q4 still has to give concessions to the competitor next door. The stock price has already been cut in half from its peak. This earnings report has no major negative news, but also no new narrative. I lean towards a volatile bottoming process.
Friends holding USDC now don’t need to panic; buying CRCL at 70-80 is also a good position. The project is still running, but the previous story of easy money printing has ended.
