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This is a long-term fan benefit post: #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切
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OKX Growth Academy | Curated Guide Collection
Getting Started ➊ If you were "recommended" here, first read this 🔗https://oyidl.net/ul/ACkbC01 ➋ Complete Guide to Scam Prevention in Crypto 🔗https://oyidl.net/ul/BmEpi6n ➌ Explore the OKX APP 🔗https://oyidl.me/ul/Fckjid1 Spot Trading ➊ Understand the coins you buy 🔗https://oyidl.net/ul/WHmwagq ➋ Why sometimes you can't beat time 🔗https://oyidl.me/ul/N0xEL4O ➌ From placing orders, position management to exit 🔗https://oyidl.me/ul/2ilRBXE Futures Trading ➊ Are you earning coins or money 🔗https://oyidl.net/ul/LWFgdPq ➋ Besides candlesticks, what else to watch 🔗https://oyidl.net/ul/fbGRWMV ➌ Correct understanding of profit and loss 🔗https://oyidl.net/ul/anam6xp ❹ Cross-margin mode: how to use, who it's suitable for 🔗https://oyidl.net/ul/1LjdiYF Daily Futures Tip ➊ Latest price, index price, mark price 🔗https://oyidl.net/ul/nsf1UdH
🔎 <Term Explanation> Performance 🆚 Performance Guidance｜Confused?
#AMD data center revenue nearly doubled, revenue and guidance both exceeded expectations
#Apple Q4 revenue exceeded expectations, next quarter gross margin guidance under pressure
—— They look very similar, but one looks at the past, the other looks to the future.
📊 Performance (Results) looks back
Refers to the company's achieved operating results, such as revenue, net profit, EPS, gross margin for the just-ended quarter.
👉🏻 Answers: How did the company actually perform during this past period?
🔭 Performance Guidance looks forward
Refers to the company's management expectations for operating and financial performance over a future period, commonly next quarter or full year revenue, EPS, margins, CapEx, etc. The company may provide specific numbers, ranges, or trend assessments.
👉🏻 Answers: How does the company expect to perform going forward?
👀 Whether it’s performance or guidance, it needs to be viewed in the context of market expectations: Did past results exceed expectations? Does future outlook meet market anticipation?
▪️ Both performance and guidance exceed expectations
▪️ Performance exceeds expectations, guidance falls short
▪️ Performance falls short, guidance exceeds expectations
▪️ Both performance and guidance fall short
⚠️ Meeting expectations does not necessarily mean the stock price won’t react. The market often focuses on the "gap between actual results and prior expectations." If prior expectations were already very high, merely meeting expectations may lack new positive surprises.
🔎 #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
The U.S. president serves a 4-year term, and halfway through the presidential term, the U.S. holds a nationwide congressional election, known as the midterm election.
🗳️ Midterm elections do not elect the president but do reelect:
▪️ House of Representatives: all 435 seats are up for election
▪️ Senate: about 1/3 of the 100 seats are up for election
👉🏻 House members serve 2-year terms, with all seats up for election every two years; Senators serve 6-year terms with staggered elections, about 1/3 of seats contested every two years.
🌟 Election results can change the majority party makeup of both chambers of Congress:
U.S. federal legislation usually requires approval from both the House and Senate⬇︎
• If the president's party controls the majority in both chambers, some policy agendas are generally easier to advance;
• If control of Congress changes, or a "divided government" forms, the policy advancement and negotiation environment may also change.
🌟 In this midterm election, political action committees (PACs) related to the crypto industry have invested heavily in congressional elections, with the three major industry super PACs spending about $170 million, reflecting the industry's focus on future digital asset legislation and regulatory environment.
🧐 What the market truly cares about is not "who wins and whether BTC will rise or fall," but rather:
Election results → changes in congressional power structure → possible changes in legislative environment for fiscal, tax, financial, and digital asset policies → market reassessment of future policy expectations
OKX Orbit
📅 What are the important dates in November?
📌 Highlights this month: #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ Non-farm payrolls and CPI reports come in quick succession, AI earnings and crypto events happen simultaneously. All key dates to watch this month are organized in 👉 "November Financial Calendar"
Bookmark the calendar first, so you can focus on market expectations and the latest developments before key dates arrive.
🧐 Which event are you most interested in this November? Feel free to share in the comments below ⬇︎ (Download to get the original image)
📌 Comparison｜CPI & PCE — Both are inflation indicators, but what’s the difference?
▪️ CPI (Consumer Price Index) mainly tracks the price changes of a basket of goods and services purchased by consumers, such as food, housing, gasoline, transportation, etc., which is closer to the intuitive feeling of "how much more expensive living costs have become."
▪️ PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) also measures changes in consumer prices but covers a broader range and uses different weights and calculation methods, allowing it to more flexibly reflect changes in consumer spending patterns. #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高
❓ Why does the market look at both?
Because their statistical scope, weights, and calculation methods differ, the inflation levels they reflect for the same round of price changes may not be exactly the same.
📌 For example:
Suppose beef prices rise significantly, and some consumers start buying less beef and switch to chicken.
➡️ CPI is less flexible in reflecting such short-term changes in consumption habits, so the impact of beef price increases will still be more noticeably reflected in the data.
➡️ PCE adjusts the weights of different consumption items more flexibly and reflects the shift from beef to chicken more promptly.
Therefore, the market often looks at CPI first, then waits for PCE to further observe inflation trends. If the two sets of data diverge, other data such as employment and wages are also considered for further judgment.
💡 Simply put:
CPI → More intuitive observation of the price changes consumers face
PCE → Observes consumer prices from a broader scope and more flexibly reflects changes in consumption structure
Both are inflation indicators, but their statistical scope, weights, and calculation methods are not exactly the same.
🔎 <Term Explanation> PCE 🆚 Core PCE
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高
Looking at US inflation, what is the difference between PCE and CPI? — PCE, or Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, is also used to observe changes in consumer prices, but differs from CPI in terms of statistical scope and consumption weights.
❓ Why look at PCE if we already have CPI?
Compared to CPI, PCE covers a broader range of consumer expenditures and its weights adjust according to actual consumer spending patterns. For example, if the price of a certain product rises, consumers may switch to other products, and PCE more flexibly reflects this change in actual purchasing behavior.
Both CPI and PCE are published monthly, reporting price changes from the previous month. Usually, CPI is released earlier and PCE later, so the market observes inflation changes through these two sets of data sequentially.
❓ What is Core PCE?
Similar to Core CPI, Core PCE excludes volatile food and energy prices, focusing more on observing relatively persistent inflation trends.
❓ Why does the market pay special attention to PCE?
The Federal Reserve’s long-term 2% inflation target is measured by the PCE price index, so the market watches changes in PCE and Core PCE to judge whether inflation trends are shifting and to further anticipate future interest rate paths.
🌟 Both CPI and PCE track inflation but use different statistical methods; PCE covers a wider range and adjusts weights more flexibly. The PCE price index is also the indicator used by the Federal Reserve for its 2% long-term inflation target.
🔎 <Term Explanation> Federal Reserve Dot Plot
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 After the FOMC announces its interest rate decision, the market sometimes closely watches a chart filled with "small dots" — the Federal Reserve Dot Plot.
👉🏻 The Dot Plot shows individual FOMC participants' judgments on the appropriate level of the federal funds rate in the future. Each dot represents one participant's forecast of the year-end interest rate level for a given year: the higher the dot, the higher the expected rate; the lower the dot, the lower the expected rate.
❓ How to read the Dot Plot?
❶ Where is the median: The market often uses this to observe participants' overall judgment on future interest rate levels.
❷ How it changes compared to last time: An overall upward shift means participants believe the appropriate future rate level is higher; an overall downward shift means it is lower.
❸ How different years change: You can observe how participants think interest rates might evolve over the next few years.
📌 For example:
Suppose the FOMC keeps rates unchanged at this meeting, but the latest Dot Plot shows the median year-end rate forecast is higher than before.
This means that although "no rate hike this time," participants have raised their judgment of the appropriate future rate level, and the market may still readjust future rate expectations, further impacting U.S. Treasuries, the U.S. dollar, U.S. stocks, and assets like BTC.
⚠️ Note: The Dot Plot is not a "rate hike/cut schedule." It reflects participants' judgments based on the current economic situation and will be adjusted in the future as inflation, employment, and other data change.
OKX成长学院
🔎 <Term Explanation> FOMC Interest Rate Decision
“#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 ”
“What signals did the FOMC statement send?”
👉🏻 FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is the core decision-making body of the Federal Reserve for monetary policy. It usually holds 8 regular meetings annually to assess inflation, employment, and economic conditions, and decides on monetary policy including the federal funds target rate range.
❓ What impact does the FOMC have on the market? How to interpret it?
❶ First, look at the interest rate decision: changes in rates affect market funding costs and risk appetite, potentially transmitting to risk assets like BTC, ETH.
Rate hike → Tightening policy, curbing inflation
Rate cut → Loosening policy, supporting economy and employment
No change → No rate adjustment for now, but does not mean future policy direction is fixed
❷ Then, check if it meets expectations: the market often prices in rate hike or cut expectations in advance.
If the outcome is fully anticipated, the decision’s impact may be limited;
If the actual decision deviates significantly from expectations, market volatility may be more pronounced.
❸ Finally, look at future policy signals:
What signals are released through policy statements, economic forecasts, and the chair’s remarks? The market will reassess whether rate hikes will continue, when cuts might occur, or if high rates will persist longer.
💡 When analyzing the FOMC, don’t just focus on “rate hike or cut,” but also on “whether it meets expectations” and “what the next steps are planned to be”~
🔎 <Term Explanation> Federal Funds Rate
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
Everyone talks about “Fed rate hikes,” but what rate is the Federal Reserve actually raising?
The “rate hike/cut” here doesn’t directly refer to deposit or mortgage rates, but rather to the FOMC raising or lowering the target range for the Federal Funds Rate.
👉🏻 The Federal Funds Rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions in the U.S. lend overnight funds to each other. The Fed uses monetary policy tools to guide the actual rate to stay within the target range set by the FOMC.
📌 For example:
If the FOMC raises the target range from 4.25%–4.50% to 4.50%–4.75%, this is what we commonly call:
“The Fed raising rates by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage points).”
❓ Why is an “interbank overnight rate” so important?
Because it sits at the core of the U.S. short-term interest rate system. Changes in the target range affect other short-term market rates and financing costs, which then transmit to broader financial conditions and may impact the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, as well as assets like BTC and ETH.
💡 Understanding the Federal Funds Rate means understanding what the “Fed rate hikes/cuts” are really adjusting. It doesn’t directly set all market rates but transmits through this core short-term rate to the wider financial markets.
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OKX成长学院
🔎 <Term Explanation> FOMC Interest Rate Decision
“#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 ”
“What signals did the FOMC statement send?”
👉🏻 FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is the core decision-making body of the Federal Reserve for monetary policy. It usually holds 8 regular meetings annually to assess inflation, employment, and economic conditions, and decides on monetary policy including the federal funds target rate range.
❓ What impact does the FOMC have on the market? How to interpret it?
❶ First, look at the interest rate decision: changes in rates affect market funding costs and risk appetite, potentially transmitting to risk assets like BTC, ETH.
Rate hike → Tightening policy, curbing inflation
Rate cut → Loosening policy, supporting economy and employment
No change → No rate adjustment for now, but does not mean future policy direction is fixed
❷ Then, check if it meets expectations: the market often prices in rate hike or cut expectations in advance.
If the outcome is fully anticipated, the decision’s impact may be limited;
If the actual decision deviates significantly from expectations, market volatility may be more pronounced.
❸ Finally, look at future policy signals:
What signals are released through policy statements, economic forecasts, and the chair’s remarks? The market will reassess whether rate hikes will continue, when cuts might occur, or if high rates will persist longer.
💡 When analyzing the FOMC, don’t just focus on “rate hike or cut,” but also on “whether it meets expectations” and “what the next steps are planned to be”~
🔎 <Term Explanation> Financial Report Metric: How to Understand ARR?
ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) Annual Recurring Revenue
👉🏻 It is a common business metric used by SaaS, cloud services, and subscription-based companies to observe the annualized scale of current recurring revenue. Suppose a software company has 100,000 paying customers, each paying 1,000 yuan per year, then the ARR is about 100 million yuan.
📍ARR and revenue metrics observe from different perspectives:
Revenue → Looks at how much income has been recognized over a period
ARR → Looks at the scale of current recurring business annualized
✅ Therefore, when a company announces an ARR of 1 billion USD, it does not mean that 1 billion USD revenue has been recognized this year, nor does it mean 1 billion USD profit has been earned.
👀 When encountering the ARR metric, we should look at:
❶ Growth: How much has ARR grown year-over-year? Is the recurring business accelerating or slowing down?
❷ Source: Is growth coming from new customers or increased purchases from existing customers?
❸ Quality: How are customer renewals and churn? Can the recurring business be sustained?
❹ Definition: Different companies may have different definitions and calculation methods for ARR, so confirm the specific definition when comparing across companies
💡 ARR is more like a metric to observe "how large the current recurring business scale has grown" rather than revenue or profit already realized.
💡 Friendly reminder, OKX Prophet Season 3 is in full swing, post with financial report topics to earn XP👉🏻#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
🔎 <Term Explanation> FCF (Free Cash Flow)
— The amount of cash a company has left for further use after generating cash from operating activities and deducting necessary investments such as capital expenditures (CapEx).
🔢 Suppose a company generates 10 billion yuan in cash from operating activities and invests 4 billion yuan in building data centers and purchasing equipment, then the free cash flow is approximately 6 billion yuan.
🧐 High profits do not necessarily mean high free cash flow.
To maintain or expand future operating capacity, a company needs to invest funds in purchasing equipment, building factories, or data centers. After completing these capital investments, if the company can still continuously generate FCF, it has more room for debt repayment, buybacks, dividends, acquisitions, further investments, or reserves.
👀 Does a decline in FCF mean the company’s operations are worsening?
Not necessarily. Suppose a tech company’s operating cash flow keeps growing, but it is simultaneously building AI data centers and purchasing GPUs on a large scale. If the increase in CapEx exceeds the growth in operating cash flow, FCF may still decline.
💡 So when observing changes in FCF, you can break it down further: is it the operating cash flow that changed, or the CapEx?
👉🏻 Operating cash flow weakening continuously → pay attention to whether the company’s own cash-generating ability is declining
👉🏻 Significant increase in CapEx → further assess whether long-term investments can bring sufficient returns
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🔎 <Term Explanation> CapEx｜Where is the company's money going as it spends big on expansion?
"Tech giants raise full-year capital expenditure forecasts"
"AI infrastructure investments continue to increase"
👉🏻 CapEx (Capital Expenditures) refers to the funds a company invests to purchase, build, or upgrade assets for long-term use, aiming to maintain or expand future operational capacity.
🏗️ Common CapEx examples:
Tech companies → building data centers, purchasing servers and GPUs
Chip companies → building wafer fabs, buying production equipment
Manufacturing enterprises → buying machinery, constructing factories
......
👀 Key points to watch in CapEx changes:
❶ Where the investment goes: data centers, GPUs, factories, or other long-term assets?
❷ Why the change: business expansion, maintaining current operations, or changes in investment pace?
❸ Whether it can generate returns: can it translate into more revenue, profit, and cash flow in the future?
❹ Whether cash flow can support it: does continuous investment put pressure on the company’s financial condition?
💡 Therefore, changes in CapEx are not simply good or bad. What matters is where the company is spending money, why the changes occur, and whether these investments can bring sufficient returns in the future.
💡 Friendly reminder, OKX Prophet Q3 is in full swing, post with earnings topics to earn XP👉🏻#MetaQ3营收超预期，法律费用与AI支出承压
