OKX Macro Pulse
OKX Macro Pulse
聚焦全球宏观经济、政策动态及市场热点，持续关注可能影响加密市场的重要事件。
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The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for October recorded 55.5, higher than the market expectation of 54.6, exceeding expectations by 0.9 points, and up 1 point from the previous value of 54.5 in September. The index continues to operate above the 50-point threshold, exceeding it by 5.5 points, indicating ongoing expansion in manufacturing activity. Looking at the trend over recent months, the index was 53.3 in June, rose to 55.6 in July, then slightly declined for two consecutive months in August and September to 54.6 and 54.5 respectively. The October data ended the downward trend and rose again, just 0.1 points below the July high of 55.6, marking the second highest in the past four months. The data exceeded market expectations, showing that the momentum of manufacturing expansion has strengthened compared to the end of the third quarter.
The US core PCE price index rose 3.1% year-on-year in September, accelerating by 0.1 percentage points from the previous 3%, in line with market expectations. The overall PCE price index increased 3.6% year-on-year, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous 3.4%, also meeting expectations. As the Federal Reserve's most closely watched inflation indicator, the rebound in core PCE shows that underlying inflationary pressures excluding food and energy prices have not dissipated, while the broader PCE increase indicates that energy or food prices have contributed more to overall inflation. The simultaneous acceleration of both indicators, without deviating from market expectations, suggests a temporary halt in the downward trend of inflation, with the policy target still some distance away. This combination may lead the Federal Reserve to be more cautious when assessing the pace of future rate cuts, requiring observation of data in the coming months to determine whether this acceleration is a short-term disturbance or a trend reversal.
The Federal Reserve FOMC voted 10 to 2 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75%-4%, with two dissenting members favoring a 1/4 percentage point increase. The statement said economic activity is expanding strongly, employment and labor force growth are basically in sync, but inflation remains high. The committee will determine the appropriate policy stance based on subsequent information to promote inflation returning to the 2% target. This meeting did not release an economic forecast summary or dot plot. The future policy path still depends on upcoming economic data. #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布
