Post

Thursday, October 29, 2026, Q4, Issue 111 Aspirin Data Scientist's Perspective on Cycle Analysis The September PCE, to be released tonight at 8:30, is a critical turning point for the market over the next month or so. My judgment is that the data is more likely to be hot; if so, BTC will first drop for a while, then bounce once before the election, and after the election, face the last drop of Q4, with the low point roughly between mid-November and December 10. If the data is cold, this bearish scenario might be invalid. 01 Where the scenario stands On October 26, BTC's second weekly candle closed below 83,000, confirming that this breakout was basically a false breakout. Last night, the Federal Reserve held steady, but its stance was more hawkish than the market expected. The vote was 10 to 2, with two members directly advocating a rate hike. The probability of a rate hike in December rose from 36% to about 78% within a month. Next, all eyes are on tonight's PCE. The market expects 3.6%, last month was 3.4%. The PPI year-on-year has already jumped to 6.35%, so I believe the probability of hot data is about 60-70%. On the market, BTC surged to 81,700 after the rate decision but was pushed back, now hovering around 79,800. ETH is weaker, having already broken the 2,328 support. 02 If PCE is hot Once the data is out, long-term interest rates will likely rise first. BTC will probably return to around 78,000, which is the 100-day moving average. ETH may break below 2,283 and see levels around 2,200. On the afternoon of October 30, there is a large-scale options expiration, which