Woke up in the middle of the night, grabbed my phone to check the market, and instantly lost all sleepiness. The screen was full of dreadful red, and even the usual cries of losses in the group chat had stopped 😔. The Binance incident combined with the tech stock crash shattered the last defense line of the bulls.
Looking at the current prices, it's extremely brutal: BTC fell below 78,000, dipped to 76,400, now at 77,500, shrinking over 5%. In 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $1.47 billion, with longs accounting for 87%, and over 240,000 people wiped out. ETH broke through 2,200, now at 2,224, down nearly 6%; SOL is the worst, dropping below 100 then straight to 94, plunging nearly 8%.
The entire network's long leverage was violently cleared, but interestingly, while everyone was panic-selling to close positions, the data tells a different story: BTC spot ETFs are seeing net inflows, BlackRock gained $12.8 million in a single day, and institutional futures positions haven't withdrawn; in contrast, ETH ETFs have seen nearly $150 million outflows in October. Retail investors are cutting losses, institutions are picking and choosing—two different decks at the same table.
Macro is the real killer. The Fed is holding steady, but the probability of a rate hike in December has soared to 86%, and risk assets are collectively taking hits. The target is leverage; without macro easing, the fundamentals can't support prices.
So I won't follow the crowd to cut losses, nor catch falling knives. BTC's 75k-76k is the lifeline, ETH's 2300 is the hard 200-day EMA defense line, and SOL's 100 has become a ceiling. Closing confirmation is far more important than piercing through. Until conditions are met, I'll keep sleeping 😉. #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高
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