SOL at $110, are you going to buy the dip?
On-chain active addresses surged to 1.88 million, a 13-month high, stablecoin supply broke through $15 billion — yet the price dropped from 123 to 110 in a week, and ETFs are still seeing a net outflow of $22 million. The price is falling, but the chain is busier than ever. Is this a golden pit where the main players are quietly accumulating, or a trap where institutions are offloading amid the hype?
Let's look at the surface first: SOL perpetual contracts on Binance are around $110, down 2%-4% in 24 hours, daily range 105.7-112.8. Market cap is $65 billion, ranked 7th, contract open interest around 900 million, long-short ratio 1.8, funding rate near zero. Mainstream public chains are retracing, not a small coin crash.
But the candlestick tells you one thing: from the October 2 high of 123.8, it dropped about 12%, price stuck 7% below the 20-day moving average, daily RSI 36-47 — neutral to weak, not yet extremely oversold. 110 is not a new starting point, but a midpoint after losing 120.
First point: The busier the chain, the more the price falls — this is not a contradiction, it's a signal.
On October 9, independent active addresses were about 1.88 million, a 13-month high. Network growth has doubled since early September. Stablecoin supply exceeds $15 billion, spot DEX daily volume is $2.2 billion, fees over $10 million per day.
Price is falling, but the chain is still busy.
What you see is "strong fundamentals, price oversold." Let me give you another interpretation: on-chain heat is the afterglow of the previous rally, not the engine for the next one.
New highs in active addresses don’t mean new money is coming to buy the dip — it could just be old players frequently rotating, farming volume, airdrop hunters running away. What really matters is not who is using the chain, but who is buying the coin.
The painful truth: ETFs are running away. In early October, the US spot SOL ETF had a net outflow of about $22 million, giving back all the inflows from September. Fidelity’s FSOL application is still in progress, but that’s a future story, not this week’s buying.
Second point: Institutions are building, but money isn’t flowing in.
Jump Crypto staked another 4.54 million SOL via the Firedancer wallet, worth about $50 million, client deployment is increasing. Securitize launched tokenized stocks of Apple, Nvidia, Tesla on Solana.
Sounds impressive? Staking is not buying. Staking locks existing coins to earn interest, not scooping up from the market. Institutions are "building," but not "buying" — these are two different things.
More intense: September’s cumulative DEX volume exceeded $3 trillion, but TVL shrank with the coin price. Stablecoin supply didn’t withdraw, meaning US dollar capital hasn’t left, but SOL-denominated assets are shrinking — in plain terms: the coin price fell, on-chain asset nominal value fell, but users remain.
This is not a crash, it’s a gradual, frog-in-warm-water style deleveraging.
Third point: Macro environment is harsh, SOL is the top victim of high beta.
Bitcoin fell from $86,000+ in early October to $82,000-$83,000, dominance rising to 59%-60%. The Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% in September, minutes were hawkish, rate cuts are nowhere in sight.
Fear & Greed Index at 59 — still greedy, not surrendering.
What does this mean? The bottom hasn’t arrived yet. The real bottom is when the fear index drops to 10-20, the whole network curses, communities go silent, no one talks about coins. Now it’s a pullback in the greed zone, the main players still have room to sell.
On October 8, SOL dropped from 117 to 108, following BTC’s deleveraging rhythm. SOL is a high-beta chain: BTC falls 1%, SOL falls 3%; BTC sideways, SOL slowly declines. This isn’t trash, it’s its DNA.
Long-short showdown, judge for yourself:
On one side:
Active addresses at 1.88 million, a 13-month high, real on-chain activity
Stablecoin supply over $15 billion, US dollar capital hasn’t left the chain
Jump staked 4.54 million SOL, Firedancer progressing
Tokenized stocks launched, RWA narrative accelerating
Down 62% from ATH 293, valuation extremely compressed
On the other side:
ETF net outflow of $22 million, institutional funds withdrawing
Fed hawkish, rates at 3.75%-4.00%
BTC dominance rising, altcoins drained
Fear & Greed at 59 still greedy, no surrender yet
Technical bearish alignment, 110 is just a relay point
Key level 110, life-or-death line at 105.7.
Strong support: 105.7 (today’s low) → break to 100 → then 95.8 (30-day low)
Current zone: 109-111 (the 110 you see is here, a rebound relay, not confirmed buying)
Near-term resistance: 112.5-113 (today’s high, failure to reclaim means continuation down)
Strong resistance: 116-120 (October 7-8 break zone + 20-day MA 118)
No volume to reclaim 120, all rebounds are just corrections, not reversals.
Trading strategy
Short-term long:
Wait for 106-107 pullback to hold, then 1-hour reclaim above 109.5 before entering. Stop loss below 104.8, first target 112.5, second target 116. Entering directly at 110? 112.5 above is a wall, risk-reward not enough.
Breakout long:
4-hour volume close above 113.5, then target 117-120. Stop loss below 109. No volume fake breakout, no follow.
Short-term short:
112.5-114 resistance, volume insufficient, light position for pullback, stop loss above 115.5, target 107/106. 110 already away from today’s low, not suitable to chase shorts.
Swing:
Mid-term logic is active addresses, stablecoins, Firedancer. But ETFs still outflowing. More comfortable position is 106 low volume stabilization, or daily close back above 120. If 105.7 daily close breaks, mid-term bulls pause, wait for 100 or even 96 to reassess.
Only if ETF net inflow resumes + price stabilizes above 116, can this retracement be considered a consolidation before the main rise.
SOL now is like ETH in early 2024 —
ETF approved, institutions bought, price still fell. Everyone called it "trash," then doubled months later.
But one difference: ETH’s fear index was already down to 20 then, SOL’s is still 59 now.
The busier the chain, the more the price falls. You think it’s oversold, but actually the main players are rotating.
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