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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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10年美债收益率跌破5%,那么5%无风险收益率对美股与黄金的吸血会变弱吗? 我觉得核心逻辑还是要看Brent价格能否回归下行趋势,油价不跌,市场预期Fed加息+保持更久的高利率,加上美股Q3财报季市场估值调整,会有更多的资金买入10Y与30Y 那么资金会持续的去买10Y吗?这要看收益率划不划算,市场可以接受多少收益 5%附近是足够具备吸引力,但是到4.6% 4.5%附近呢?大通胀时代,我并不觉得市场可以接受更低的收益率去买入美债, 站在美国政策者的视角,长债收益率被压下来算是暂时解除了债市的风险,但是美股也是支柱,不能让美股尤其是科技企业长期顶着高利率发展,那么唯一的办法就是尽快调整政策 那么记下来11月之后的动态会非常关键,能否解决伊朗问题,能否压制Brent价格下跌,如果可以赶在12月前完成,那么缓冲一下12月可以鸽派加息甚至不加息,然后继续保持高利率通过数据调整让市场回归降息周期! 结合前文对于黄金的判断,如果在12月加息前后,黄金守住3950美元,那么就算稳住趋势继续看涨!#10月FOMC临近,美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数?
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
The stronger the energy prices, the weaker the gold. In the macro environment, gold is not losing to Brent but rather to the expectation of a stronger and more persistent high interest rate by the Fed due to inflation concerns.
The stronger the energy prices, the weaker gold becomes. In the macro environment, gold is not losing to Brent but rather to the expectation of a tougher and more persistent high interest rate policy by the Fed driven by inflation concerns. In terms of asset returns, both gold and U.S. stocks face the same awkward situation when confronted with a 5% risk-free rate—why hold gold or stocks when you can hold 5% risk-free U.S. Treasuries! It must be said that the 5% yield on U.S. Treasuries is a shock to all assets. I remember writing an article last year that when the U.S. faces economic and financial crises, deliberately creating localized global geopolitical or economic crises will enhance the dollar's siphoning effect on global capital. #Middle East energy risks are heating up, and international oil prices remain high. Now, there are already two existing geopolitical crises, and the resulting high energy prices have increased the risk exposure of European debt, which indeed supports the dollar's siphoning effect! Next, after the bond market sell-off crisis is resolved, will the U.S. start adjusting policy to resume rate cuts and stimulate a bull market in stocks? I think the probability is high! As for gold, is it worth buying? Around $4000 is indeed very attractive. If you want to be more cautious, you can wait a bit longer to see if this gold decline breaks the new low of $3950. If it breaks, expect further declines; if it does not break the new low and quickly rebounds above $4000, an upward trend can be expected! Of course, macro variables still need to be considered here, especially whether Brent can return to a downward trend!

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