The stronger the energy prices, the weaker the gold. In the macro environment, gold is not losing to Brent but rather to the expectation of a stronger and more persistent high interest rate by the Fed due to inflation concerns.
The stronger the energy prices, the weaker gold becomes. In the macro environment, gold is not losing to Brent but rather to the expectation of a tougher and more persistent high interest rate policy by the Fed driven by inflation concerns. In terms of asset returns, both gold and U.S. stocks face the same awkward situation when confronted with a 5% risk-free rate—why hold gold or stocks when you can hold 5% risk-free U.S. Treasuries! It must be said that the 5% yield on U.S. Treasuries is a shock to all assets. I remember writing an article last year that when the U.S. faces economic and financial crises, deliberately creating localized global geopolitical or economic crises will enhance the dollar's siphoning effect on global capital. #Middle East energy risks are heating up, and international oil prices remain high. Now, there are already two existing geopolitical crises, and the resulting high energy prices have increased the risk exposure of European debt, which indeed supports the dollar's siphoning effect! Next, after the bond market sell-off crisis is resolved, will the U.S. start adjusting policy to resume rate cuts and stimulate a bull market in stocks? I think the probability is high! As for gold, is it worth buying? Around $4000 is indeed very attractive. If you want to be more cautious, you can wait a bit longer to see if this gold decline breaks the new low of $3950. If it breaks, expect further declines; if it does not break the new low and quickly rebounds above $4000, an upward trend can be expected! Of course, macro variables still need to be considered here, especially whether Brent can return to a downward trend!
Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more