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麋鹿乱撞🦌
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刚早餐后看盘，多头再次倒在宏观黎明前。24小时全网爆仓5.49亿美元，多单占4.66亿（超85%），BTC和ETH分别清算1.76亿与1.61亿。杠杆先亡。BTC现报80400，本周110亿期权到期，最大痛点78000。卖方反复击穿82000，80000成关键防守，失守看77000，收复82000才算企稳。清算地图显示，跌破76764触发7.7亿多单清算，突破84240引爆7.87亿空单，价格夹在两片雷区。ETH现报2357，仅剩EMA120在2336支撑，下方BOLL下轨2299是硬防线。2239是清算密集区，触及将触发5.8亿多单清算，上方2464对应5.26亿空单清算。SOL现报102，100.35是前低，102.7至105.7堆着密集清算区，空头仓位3.76亿。100.35是真破位点，往上105触发空头回补，99.5至100.5是短线支撑。宏观才是真正引爆器，27至28日美联储议息，29日GDP与PCE落地。凌晨的上涨可能被当晚通胀数据逆转。风控上杠杆压至5倍内，风险不超1%。紧盯三大收盘价：BTC80000、ETH的2299、SOL的100.35。宏观落地前保本比抢反弹重要。
麋鹿乱撞🦌
On October 26, the market maintained weak volatility on the eve of a macro nuclear bomb. BTC is currently at 80500, with short-term moving averages all pressing above the price; resistance turns at 82614, and a daily close below 81000 targets 77876. The 80000 level is a key threshold, with support between 79200 and 79800. A large number of liquidation points accumulate between 81700 and 83300, making rebounds prone to triggering long liquidations.
ETH is currently priced at 2376, below the 2385 support. Once it breaks 2245, mainstream exchanges will trigger $561 million long liquidations. A certain whale's $214 million long liquidation zone is near 2313, concentrating downside risk. The downside target is 2200.
SOL is weakly hovering around 102, with moving averages converging. 100.35 is the previous low, with support between 99.5 and 100.5. A dense liquidation zone accumulates between 102.7 and 105.7, with short positions totaling $376 million, making rebounds likely to face selling pressure. If 100 closes below, the thin liquidity below may cause sharp spikes.
Macro factors are the real trigger. Having just experienced $837 million in liquidations and ETF outflows, focus is locked on the rate decisions on the 27th to 28th and the core PCE on the 29th. The probability of a rate hike in December has risen to 76%, putting pressure on risk assets.
Risk control: leverage is kept within 5x, with risk not exceeding 1%. Keep a close eye on three key closing prices: BTC at 81000, ETH at 2245, and SOL at 100; breaking these levels will worsen conditions. Before the PCE release, preserving capital is more important than chasing rebounds.
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