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牛牛Btc【互动版】
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$BTC 为什么一直跌？别只盯着K线，真正的变数在宏观！
接着上一篇聊，最近市场最需要关注的，不只是BTC能不能守住78000，而是两件事美国中期选举带来的政策不确定性，以及美联储接下来的利率信号。
先说中期选举。这件事对币圈的影响，不是选举当天涨还是跌，而是后续政策预期会不会发生变化。特朗普政府对加密行业相对友好的政策取向，一旦面临国会权力格局变化，市场就可能重新评估相关政策的延续性。
再看利率。真正需要盯的，不只是这次加不加息，而是美联储接下来释放什么信号。
市场通常会提前交易预期。如果官员讲话偏鹰，强调通胀仍有压力，市场可能重新评估未来利率路径，高风险资产就容易受到冲击；反过来，如果政策表态没有预期中那么强硬，也可能给市场带来喘息机会。
把这两件事放在一起看，我对BTC短线仍然偏谨慎。78000是第一道观察位，失守后重点关注75000，极端情况下再看72000。但这些都是条件成立后的风险推演，不是提前断言价格一定会到。#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
牛牛Btc【互动版】
$BTC intraday rebound can't even hold above 81000! Is it really heading towards 75000, or even 72000 next?
Brothers, here's the conclusion first: In the short term, I remain cautious; the medium-term adjustment risk hasn't been fully released yet, but over a longer cycle, I still lean bullish, with a strategy focused on waiting for low entry opportunities.
Why do I keep reminding everyone not to rush to bottom-fish?
Since mid-October, I have believed BTC needs a more thorough pullback. Previously, a lot of capital entered above 80000, and the more unanimous the market sentiment, the more we need to guard against a rapid sell-off that flushes out those without proper risk control.
Now BTC has returned near 79000 again, indicating short-term bulls are still under pressure. But I think this doesn't directly mean the bull market is over; the key is whether the support below can hold. Next, focus closely on three levels: 78000: the first line of defense. This is an important starting area from the previous rally; if it can stabilize here, there's still a chance for a rebound.
75000: the next observation level. If 78000 is effectively broken and the rebound can't recover it, be wary of the price seeking support further down.
72000: the extreme pullback reference area. This is a level to watch under risk scenarios, but it doesn't mean the price will definitely fall here.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
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