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币圈八爺
币圈八爺
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这篇文章其实在表达一个意思:钱回来了,胆还没回来😶 我们先看一组好看的数。BTC现货4小时流入3936万,合约回了1.27亿;ETH现货合约4小时也在往里进;SOL更猛,24小时现货合约双双翻正。 可再看看盘面:钱回流大半天,价格却一点没给面子,还在关口下方磨,越磨越蔫。绿的是数字,红的是K线,这俩对不上,回来的就不是追涨的钱,是回补的钱:空头平一点、抄底接一点,没人往上抬价。 仓位结构也一样拧巴:按人头数,看空的占大多数;按仓位算,最重的那批反而在接。人没回来,仓位先回来,这叫试探,不叫进攻。 再看长周期:BTC 30天合约净流出78.2亿,ETH 86.4亿,撤退的队伍长得多。SOL现货有人接,可30天合约还流出20.5亿,杠杆不回来,反弹没腿。ZEC那边仓位还在悄悄加,我多看一眼,不追。 后面还有数据周压着:信心数据、FOMC、GDP和PCE排着队。这种时候的回流,先按避险回补算,不按反转算。 后续盯一件事:24小时口径什么时候翻正,价格什么时候放量收回跌破的关口。两样一起来,我第一个认错改口;只来一样,那就是反弹,仓位照旧轻着走。
Kidt
Kidt
Today, focus on recovery, not reversal. Short-term funds are starting to flow back, but the mid-term retreat is not over yet. BTC spot net inflow over 4 hours is $39.36 million, contract net inflow is $127 million. Over 24 hours, spot net outflow is $34.95 million, contract net outflow is $118 million. The 30-day contract net outflow has expanded to $7.82 billion. There is short-term fund replenishment, but mid-term selling pressure remains. ETH spot net inflow over 4 hours is $24.24 million, contract net inflow is $56.19 million. Over 24 hours, spot net outflow is $45.33 million, contract net outflow is $105 million. The 30-day contract net outflow is $8.64 billion, with a retreat scale exceeding BTC, indicating an overall weaker structure. SOL spot and contract net inflows over 24 hours are $9.86 million and $10.58 million respectively, showing clear short-term strength. The 30-day contract still has a net outflow of $2.05 billion, indicating spot buyers are present, but long-term leveraged funds have not returned yet. BTC and ETH show short-term recovery, SOL is relatively strong. The 4-hour inflow has appeared, but the 24-hour and 30-day fund structures have not truly reversed. Currently, it is best to hold light positions and observe, avoid going long.

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