(This is only the personal opinion of the sweeper monk and does not constitute a basis for trading decisions; please judge risks independently.)
Gold on the 4-hour chart currently shows a very clear downtrend line. Yesterday, it rebounded multiple times at the 4015 support line I indicated, but ultimately broke down overnight. Currently, 4000 is also facing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Overall, the trend is weak. The priority is to short on rebounds rather than to buy on dips, but once stabilized, buying on dips offers better cost performance than shorting on rebounds.
Today, it may test the support strength between 3975-3988. If the support holds, a rebound will start forming a W double bottom, and bulls will launch a new offensive, targeting the 4000/4035 area; if it holds above 4035, next week will test resistance at 4080/4100.
Conversely, if 3975 breaks directly, the downside space opens, and bears will test the yearly low at 3942.
Before breaking above 4100, it cannot be confirmed whether 3975 is the low of this cycle, so our long positions at 3981 were uniformly reduced at 4035 and 4060.
Today, I will first hold a short position at 4013, targeting 3990/3985. Then, in the 3975-3985 area, if there is a stabilization signal, I will lightly position for a long, betting on gold forming a W bottom and starting a rebound; if it breaks down, I will follow the trend accordingly.
If it rebounds first to the 4035 line, I will position for a high short, betting on 4000/3980.
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