October 30, 2026, Issue 112 Aspirin Data Scientist's Perspective on Cycle Analysis On Wednesday night, news broke of a Binance hack involving about $6.3 billion in funds, with approximately $3 billion frozen, and all deposits and withdrawals suspended. The entire network saw liquidations exceeding $1.5 billion overnight. Based on past experience, a negative event of this magnitude is enough to trigger a long bearish candlestick. However, Bitcoin's lowest point only dropped to 76,642, just landing on the 21-week moving average at 76,612, almost exactly. This event itself is a piece of data. It indicates that the current sell-off is not yet panic selling; there are buyers at the market bottom. But it does not prove that the bottom has been reached, because a true cycle low is usually accompanied by a concentrated release of volume, which did not happen this time. In this issue, I put together all the clues from the past two weeks: cycle timing, on-chain cost, moving average structure, macro rhythm, and finally present what I believe is the most probable path along with the corresponding strategy. 01 Where we stand in the cycle The high point of this round was 126,000 on October 6, 2025, and a low of 57,700 appeared in July this year. Starting from the bear market bottom in November 2022, today marks day 1,439. The previous two cycles saw lows on days 1,432 and 1,436 respectively, so from a timing perspective, the low window has opened. Another timing pattern comes from the midterm election year. Historically, the fourth-quarter lows in midterm election years generally occur after the election. This year's election is on November 3, which means the window is very likely to fall in mid-November

Thursday, October 29, 2026, Q4, Issue 111 Aspirin Data Scientist's Perspective on Cycle Analysis The September PCE, to be released tonight at 8:30, is the turning point for the market over the next month or so. My judgment is that the data is more likely to be hot; if so, BTC will first drop for a while, then bounce once before the election, and after the election, face the last drop of Q4, with the low point roughly between mid-November and December 10. If the data is cold, this bearish scenario may be invalid. 01 Where the scenario stands On October 26, BTC's second weekly candle closed below 83,000, confirming that this breakout was basically a false breakout. Last night, the Fed held steady, but its stance was more hawkish than the market expected; the vote was 10 to 2, with two members directly advocating a rate hike. The probability of a rate hike in December rose from 36% to about 78% within a month. Next, all eyes are on tonight's PCE. The market expects 3.6%, last month was 3.4%. The PPI year-on-year has already jumped to 6.35%, so I believe the probability of hot data is about 60-70%. On the market, BTC surged to 81,700 after the rate decision but was pushed back, now hovering around 79,800. ETH is weaker, having already broken the 2,328 support. 02 If PCE is hot Once the data is out, long-term interest rates will likely rise first, and BTC will probably return to around 78,000, which is the 100-day moving average. ETH may break below 2,283, possibly reaching around 2,200. On the afternoon of October 30, there is a large-scale options expiration, which

October 26, 2026 · Monday Fourth Quarter · Issue 110 Aspirin · Cycle Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective At 8 a.m. this morning, BTC's second weekly candle closed below 83,000. My judgment is clear: this breakout is a false breakout, and there will be one last drop in Q4. BTC's low point will appear around December 10, near 60,000, just before or after the Federal Reserve's rate decision; gold will bottom and rebound before BTC, while silver is the weakest. Below is the full script, timeline, and key levels. 01｜Why is the false breakout confirmed? 83,000 is the May high. One weekly candle closing below this can be considered a pullback; two consecutive ones confirm falsification. The current price is about 80,000, and the daily chart has also broken below the 50-day moving average (around 81,700). Historically, several false breakouts cleared quickly. In 2015 and 2020, it took only two to three weeks from the second weekly candle break to the bottom. So the upcoming move will not be a slow decline but a concentrated, rapid drop. Another signal: Nasdaq, S&P, Dow Jones, ETH, and altcoin total market cap have all retested the bull market support zone; BTC is the last one not yet tested. I don't think it will be an exception. 02｜Macro is pushing in the same direction The Federal Reserve will hold steady this week, with the market pricing in about 94%, so the real focus is the wording about December in the statement. If the September PCE is hotter than expected, the market will confirm: there will be another rate hike in December. The 10-year US Treasury yield is now about 4.99%; I believe it will return to 5.3% then; Brent crude oil original

October 17, 2026 · Saturday · Q4 · Issue 109 Aspirin · Cycle Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective Long time no update. After these days of analysis and review, I believe: According to the four-year cycle pattern, BTC has indeed entered the bear market bottom time window, which will last until late November. However, this round's price does not match historical patterns, so this window may not bring new lows. In the next week or two, just watch the weekly close at $83,000. Before it gives an answer, I won't bet on direction, only prepare trading strategies for two possible outcomes in advance. 01｜The time window has already opened There are two common measures to estimate the bear market bottom time. The first is counting from the bull market peak. The previous three rounds took 406 days, 363 days, and 376 days respectively from peak to bottom. This round's peak was on October 6, 2025, so the window is from October 4 to November 16, 2026. Today is the 376th day after the peak. The second is counting backward from the next halving. The previous three lows appeared 542 days, 513 days, and 516 days before the halving. The next halving is around April 2028, so counting back, the window is from October 16 to November 24. The two measures overlap from mid-October to mid-November. If counting from the November 2022 low, the previous two rounds bottomed on the 1432nd and 1436th days respectively, which converts to October 23 to 27 for this round, also within this period. These patterns are not