tvbee
tvbee
✦数据分析+宏观+投研 ✦人肉码字、人肉图表、非AI内容 ✦100%文章原创、拒绝人云亦云🦅 ✦PANews、Foresightnews、AIcoin等媒体专栏作者 ✦也是韭菜，分析能力大于交易水平，不撸毛
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With all due respect!
If Iran has nuclear weapons and controls the Strait of Hormuz, do you think Iran would allow oil prices to drop?
So would the Democrats allow Iran to dilute enriched uranium domestically?
Even Khamenei himself said that switching to the Democrats wouldn’t change the US attitude toward Iran.
Brother Feng has always wanted to buy Chevron $CVX and has started building a position this time. I don’t think a ceasefire is certain, and even if it happens, it will be difficult in the short term.
tvbee
History often rhymes, Trump lost both chambers, is it a rebound or a reversal?
┈➤ Why did Trump lose?
History is rhyming; this is not Trump's first midterm election, but in 2018 he only lost the House of Representatives while still holding the Senate.
In the past 30 years, the only time both chambers changed party control simultaneously was in 2006 under George W. Bush. This might not be a coincidence, as in 2003 Bush was engaged in the Iraq war.
Trump provoking conflict with Iran is a reason.
┈➤ Rebound or reversal?
First, I don't think there will be an immediate reversal. Looking at the previous chart, after midterm elections, unless the controlling party in both chambers remains unchanged, historically there is no immediate big market rally.
Fortunately, the simultaneous "change of control" in both chambers happened in 2006, not 2018. After the 2018 midterms, there was a further significant drop, while 2006 was mainly a sideways shakeout.
Second, although the midterms changed the composition of both chambers, the president is still Trump. The previously approved temporary budget runs until the end of December; what Trump's subsequent budget proposals will be remains to be seen.
Third, do both chambers have the ability to stop Trump's actions against Iran? If they do, can it be done in the short term? If done quickly, will the CPI drop in the short term?
Therefore, my subjective judgment is: politically, there may still be some friction time between the two chambers and Trump. If fast, the market could improve in Q1 next year; if slow, then Q2.
History often rhymes, Trump lost both chambers, is it a rebound or a reversal?
┈➤ Why did Trump lose?
History is rhyming; this is not Trump's first midterm election, but in 2018 he only lost the House of Representatives while still holding the Senate.
In the past 30 years, the only time both chambers changed party control simultaneously was in 2006 under George W. Bush. This might not be a coincidence, as in 2003 Bush was engaged in the Iraq war.
Trump provoking conflict with Iran is a reason.
┈➤ Rebound or reversal?
First, I don't think there will be an immediate reversal. Looking at the previous chart, after midterm elections, unless the controlling party in both chambers remains unchanged, historically there is no immediate big market rally.
Fortunately, the simultaneous "change of control" in both chambers happened in 2006, not 2018. After the 2018 midterms, there was a further significant drop, while 2006 was mainly a sideways shakeout.
Second, although the midterms changed the composition of both chambers, the president is still Trump. The previously approved temporary budget runs until the end of December; what Trump's subsequent budget proposals will be remains to be seen.
Third, do both chambers have the ability to stop Trump's actions against Iran? If they do, can it be done in the short term? If done quickly, will the CPI drop in the short term?
Therefore, my subjective judgment is: politically, there may still be some friction time between the two chambers and Trump. If fast, the market could improve in Q1 next year; if slow, then Q2.
tvbee
You can't help but believe it! The U.S. stock market tends to decline before the midterm elections, so what happens after the midterm elections?
┈➤ The stock market is very likely to fall before the midterm elections
Looking at the past 30 years of history, including 8 midterm elections this year, only before the 2014 midterm elections did the U.S. stock market not decline, but the Nasdaq 100 still had a sharp dip in October.
You can see that although the overall trend of the U.S. stock market in the past 30 years is upward, major drops or significant corrections are more likely to occur around the midterm elections.
So, is the current decline in the U.S. stock market due to the midterm elections? Or is it the bursting of the AI bubble?
┈➤ What about after the midterm elections?
In 1998, when the majority party in both houses remained unchanged, the U.S. stock market took off directly.
In 2006, when the majority party in both houses changed simultaneously, the market fluctuated sideways for 4 to 5 months (during which the S&P first rose moderately) before going up.
In the other 5 instances, one majority party remained unchanged while the other changed. Except for 2010, the U.S. stock market generally adjusted for two to three months after the midterm elections and then rose.
┈➤ What about this year?
But it is basically certain that the Republican Party will at least lose the House of Representatives, so the U.S. stock market is unlikely to start rising immediately after the midterm elections.
Overall, Feng Brother believes that starting from Q2 next year, things will gradually improve with more certainty, but not necessarily before then.
The pessimistic scenario is another two months of decline; the optimistic scenario is consolidation.
As for crypto, don't try to force it. As long as there is no major liquidity black swan event, BTC will fall but will not experience an especially exaggerated drop.
The Democratic Party won both chambers, but do you think it's over?
Senate seats are 54:44, with 2 seats still undecided.
House seats are 222:138, with 75 seats still undecided.
However, don't forget that the significance of legislators and the president is different.
For the presidential election, 270 votes to 268 votes or 370 votes to 168 votes might not make much difference; it's the same president taking office.
But the two chambers' legislators are different. Take the House of Representatives as an example: currently, the results are 222 seats for the Democrats, 138 for the Republicans, and 75 seats undecided. Two extreme scenarios, 297:138 and 222:213, are different because the vote margin between the two parties affects decision-making in the House.
Take the recently discussed "Crypto Clarity Act" as an example. The Democrats are not very supportive of this bill. If the Democrats have 222 seats to the Republicans' 213, then after moderate amendments, the "Crypto Clarity Act" still has a chance to pass in the House. But if it's 297:138, the probability of the "Crypto Clarity Act" passing might be relatively slim.
This is the suspense that still exists in the midterm elections. The Republicans lost both chambers, but the suspense lies in how much they lost by. This is also very important!
You can't help but believe it! The U.S. stock market tends to decline before the midterm elections, so what happens after the midterm elections?
┈➤ The stock market is very likely to fall before the midterm elections
Looking at the past 30 years of history, including 8 midterm elections this year, only before the 2014 midterm elections did the U.S. stock market not decline, but the Nasdaq 100 still had a sharp dip in October.
You can see that although the overall trend of the U.S. stock market in the past 30 years is upward, major drops or significant corrections are more likely to occur around the midterm elections.
So, is the current decline in the U.S. stock market due to the midterm elections? Or is it the bursting of the AI bubble?
┈➤ What about after the midterm elections?
In 1998, when the majority party in both houses remained unchanged, the U.S. stock market took off directly.
In 2006, when the majority party in both houses changed simultaneously, the market fluctuated sideways for 4 to 5 months (during which the S&P first rose moderately) before going up.
In the other 5 instances, one majority party remained unchanged while the other changed. Except for 2010, the U.S. stock market generally adjusted for two to three months after the midterm elections and then rose.
┈➤ What about this year?
But it is basically certain that the Republican Party will at least lose the House of Representatives, so the U.S. stock market is unlikely to start rising immediately after the midterm elections.
Overall, Feng Brother believes that starting from Q2 next year, things will gradually improve with more certainty, but not necessarily before then.
The pessimistic scenario is another two months of decline; the optimistic scenario is consolidation.
As for crypto, don't try to force it. As long as there is no major liquidity black swan event, BTC will fall but will not experience an especially exaggerated drop.
Have the US and Iran made concessions on the nuclear issue and frozen assets? Beware of a possible reversal.
The core disagreement between the two sides is Iran's enriched uranium.
Trump would never allow Iran to dilute this enriched uranium domestically.
On the surface, Trump wants a better deal than Obama’s original one, where Iran handed over the enriched uranium to a third party, namely Russia. If Iran is allowed to dilute it domestically, where would Trump save face? Even if it is handed over to a third country again, Trump would still lose face.
In essence, Iran has relatively advanced centrifuges; if it dilutes the enriched uranium domestically, it can re-enrich it anytime using the centrifuges. In this case, Iran does not have nuclear weapons but effectively has quasi-nuclear weapons.
Therefore, Trump will not concede on this issue. And Iran, which controls the Strait of Hormuz, would not be willing to hand over the enriched uranium. Remember, Iran did not control the strait in 2005.
On the other hand, in 2005 Iran handed over enriched uranium, and Russia, in exchange, gave Iran a large amount of uranium powder. Now with Iran’s advanced centrifuges, giving uranium powder to Iran may no longer be appropriate.
It might be related to the midterm elections; both sides are creating a peaceful atmosphere, but beware of a reversal.
The negative impact of the hacker incident should be mostly over for now, but the trend is still not ideal.
The USDCNY exchange rate has rebounded to 6.67, but the price for USDT withdrawals has dropped to around 6.61. There is a clear outflow of USDT funds.
The only good news is that USDC funds are flowing in, possibly indicating a shift of funds from USDT to USDC.
The total market cap of USDT+USDC is still declining.
Next, all eyes are on the midterm elections.
Given the current environment, whether it's US stocks or crypto,
isn't it better to focus mainly on spot trading?
In the mid to long term, history shows that the year after the midterm elections has a very high probability of US stock market gains, and crypto is also in a phase of transitioning from bear to bull.
On the contrary, aren't there still plenty of short-term disturbances like hackers, midterm elections, US-Iran relations, and oil prices?
Everyone knows that wealth is sought in risk, that's true.
But what about the second half?
Wealth is sought in risk, but also lost in risk!
When seeking, one in ten succeeds; when losing, nine in ten fail!
Can't stop laughing, I found another piece of evidence that AI has no bubble.
The perspective from the US stock market guru is super interesting: Walmart and many consumer sector stocks have price-to-earnings ratios clearly higher than AI stocks. So where exactly is the bubble?
Brother Feng put the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 on a logarithmic scale, drawing a single line, which clearly shows the difference!
A logarithmic scale assumes growth is exponential; after taking the log,
removing the exponential effect, stock prices in 2000 were still accelerating upward, which really was a bubble.
But currently, after removing the exponential effect, growth is basically linear.
So, the US stock market is indeed growing exponentially now, but does that necessarily mean there is a bubble?
Also, during the 2000 internet bubble, the Nasdaq 100 clearly outperformed the S&P 500. During the 2008 real estate bubble, the S&P 500 outperformed the Nasdaq 100.
Currently, the gap between these two indices is relatively small. Actually, in 2021, there was a period when the Nasdaq 100's gains exceeded the S&P 500, and there was indeed a small bubble then, but with interest rate hikes, the rally returned to normal.
So, is there a bubble in AI now?
$QQQ $SPX
I don't understand why so many people hope that BTC and ETH would freeze hacker funds directly like centralized stablecoins.
Isn't the decentralization of BTC and ETH their true charm?
The whole world being decentralized is unrealistic and unnecessary.
But if the whole world is centralized, what's the point?
Centralization and decentralization are like rice and dishes; they taste better together.
It may gradually improve after Q2 next year.
Oil prices were basically normal in Q1 this year, surged in Q2, and were slightly lower overall in Q3 compared to Q2.
The CPI/PCE annual rate will continue to rise in Q1 next year, but after Q2, unless oil prices rise further, the overall inflation rate should not increase.
Trump and Iran probably won't push oil prices higher. The quantity of oil exported from the Middle East has decreased, but because of the higher oil prices, demand will also decrease. Theoretically, oil prices should reach a relative balance under a new supply-demand relationship. (It will also fluctuate with US-Iran relations, but it shouldn't rise to a higher range.)
Of course, because there are some differences between real oil prices and financial product prices, plus statistical errors, there may occasionally be price spikes, but not surges, and the overall trend will not continue to rise.
There may be one interest rate hike in Q1 next year, or possibly none.
Q2 to Q3 should enter an observation phase, and there probably won't be further rate hikes.
To be honest, the US stock market is uncertain. Brother Feng suspects this AI boom is due to the massive monetary easing in 2020-2021, which provided liquidity support for AI technology development. Under the current environment, AI stock prices might wait for industrial development. But it shouldn't be as exaggerated as in 2000, unless there's another 9/11.
But after more than a year of suppression, crypto theoretically shouldn't perform too badly.
Big market moves still depend on monetary easing, but as long as US Treasury bonds don't crash, crypto might have a small rally. Of course, this is a phased judgment and we need to proceed cautiously.
