TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人
宏观 × 美股 × Crypto 交易员 拆解美联储、战争与全球资金流 提前捕捉 美股 / 原油 / BTC / 金银 / 风险资产拐点 和读者一起看金融风暴 🌪 推特同名TraderS | 缺德道人，账号TraderS18
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Trend after the midterm elections
A bit of discomfort and diarrhea due to the change in environment, so I won't go out this afternoon. I just happen to have time to carefully summarize the results of this election. Trump was flipped blue in six states, with Texas and South Carolina suffering the most notable defeats. Especially Texas, as the stronghold of rednecks, losing really broke the morale of Trump supporters. However, the good news is that his base still exists, but the numbers are not enough to help him win the presidential election. His previous victory was largely due to the "one divine shot" that attracted centrist voters and led to a landslide win. Moreover, if you look closely, Trump also used his influence to help the Republican Party win the primaries in Texas and South Carolina. So even if there is internal division, it is still controllable. The party candidates will still rely on Trump’s support in the 2028 presidential election. This morning’s big drop was probably the market pricing in the previously unpriced South Carolina Senate race. For the market, the short-term uncertainty has disappeared, and the bad news has been fully priced in, so after the results came out, the market rebounded across the board. But in the medium to long term, issues like the debt ceiling, government shutdown, and data centers will soon return to the table. Before that, the Shenzhen APEC meeting in mid to late November might bring some positive sentiment or news. Although statistics show that the U.S. stock market must rise within 12 months after the election, this may be more meaningful for long-term spot holders and less so for those used to short-term trading in the crypto space. After all, you can’t guarantee no liquidation in between. But in the short term, prices of various assets are attractive enough—Bitcoin, gold, and big tech stocks are basically in a state where you can blindly buy and still make a profit. So I recently
Although the market looks so rotten right now, looking on the bright side, it's a rare opportunity to pick up cheap, bloodied chips in the golden pit. Actually, the US stock market isn't really collapsing yet; if it truly collapsed, that might be better, giving Powell a good excuse to switch from raising interest rates to cutting them. With today's drop, the probability of a rate hike in December has dropped by 5 points #英特尔Q4业绩指引低于预期，股价大跌 $INTC $AMZN
Although there was the theft incident today, the market focus is undoubtedly still on US stocks AI, especially after Amazon and Intel's earnings reports caused such a severe drop that the original AI narrative now seems unsustainable. This bottomless money-burning pit has made the market very pessimistic, and it seems difficult to stop the decline without a new narrative.
In fact, at the latest since Q2, the market has stopped rewarding the money-burning game of low income and high expenditure. From a long-term cycle perspective, the September rebound was actually just the aftershock of the July decline. If there were still illusions about the AI bubble before, this drop undoubtedly proves that the AI hype has peaked.
When Anthropic goes public next month, it may coincide with a period of market liquidity and confidence recovery, but Anthropic's massive cash burn will likely offset any possible macro improvements, making people somewhat pessimistic again.
The current AI craze has caused hardware prices to soar, storage prices to surge, which in turn has increased costs across the entire industry chain. Amazon raised its Q2 capex citing storage costs, Samsung's mobile and home appliance division lost 800 billion KRW due to storage price hikes, and Intel's PC revenue dropped by 5%.
Against the backdrop of terminal revenue insufficient to support this bottomless money-burning, an invisible upper limit on stock prices has actually been drawn.
Returning to Bitcoin, there was probably already demand for further decline, compounded by the US stock market crash and the theft catalyst, today's drop can be seen as an acceleration, but from another perspective, with such a big negative event only pushing it down to 76k, isn't that quite strong? #加密行业协同守护资产安全
Although there was the theft incident today, the market focus is undoubtedly still on the US stock market, especially after Amazon and Intel's earnings reports caused such a sharp drop, making the original AI narrative seem unsustainable. This bottomless money-burning pit has made the market very pessimistic, and without a new narrative, it will be hard to stop the decline.
Actually, at the latest from Q2, the market has stopped rewarding the money-burning game of low income and high expenditure. From a long-term cycle perspective, the September rebound was actually just an aftershock of the July decline. If there were still illusions about the AI bubble before, this drop undoubtedly proves that the AI hype has peaked.
When Anthropic goes public next month, it may coincide with a period of market liquidity and confidence recovery, but Anthropic's massive cash burn will likely offset any possible macro improvements, making people somewhat pessimistic again.
The current AI hype has caused hardware prices to surge, storage prices to rise sharply, increasing costs across the entire industry chain. Amazon raised its Q2 capex citing storage costs, Samsung's mobile and home appliance division lost 800 billion KRW due to storage price increases, and Intel's PC revenue dropped by 5%.
Against the backdrop of terminal revenue insufficient to support this bottomless money-burning, an invisible stock price ceiling has actually been drawn.
Returning to Bitcoin, there was probably already demand for further decline, compounded by the US stock market sell-off and the theft catalyst, today's drop can be seen as an acceleration. But from another perspective, with such a big negative, it only dropped to 76k, isn't that still quite strong? #英特尔Q4业绩指引低于预期，股价大跌 $AMZN $INTC
The PCE data will be released at 8:30 PM. From an intuitive perspective, this data doesn't look optimistic. For specifics, you can refer to the CPI and PPI data from two weeks ago, both leaning hawkish and hot narratives. After all, high oil prices have persisted for so long, especially diesel prices which affect the US logistics industry and eventually pass through to consumer goods, making it really hard to suppress.
However, thanks to the previous high CPI and PPI data that have already caused two waves of market shocks, as long as today's third wave isn't too extreme, the market can actually withstand it. It might even turn a disaster into a blessing if it's not ridiculously bad.
Currently, the market expects September core PCE to be 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year; overall PCE to be 0.5% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year. Against the backdrop of high oil prices, as long as the final published value is less than or equal to expectations, it's a victory (provided they aren't playing decimal rounding games).
If the PCE data is unexpectedly mild and dovish, the possible breakthrough point might occur in the handling of the airline ticket weighting coefficient conversion. In any case, when the data is released, you can quickly check whether the core monthly rate is 0.2% or 0.3% to judge the heat level. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温
Didn't stay up late to watch the FOMC and Waller's press conference. After waking up, I quickly checked various indicators:
1. The 2-year/5-year US Treasury yields dropped significantly after Waller's speech.
2. The December CME rate hike probability is 78.4%, not much different from before the meeting, which is somewhat disappointing.
3. Oil prices had a bearish candle at 3:30, which might be the main reason for the late rally in the US stock market.
4. Microsoft rose due to after-hours earnings, while Google plunged 10%.
5. Waller's speech itself didn't have much new content, still the usual talk about reducing guidance and information disclosure. However, the institutional move starting next year to gradually reduce the number of rate votes in the eight FOMC meetings is quite important. I don't see this as a strong signal; it only happens when there are fewer cards left to play, pushing responsibility to the market to reduce their own embarrassment. In a strong power-up cycle, those with more influence wouldn't try to hide themselves. This move to conceal weakness is the real reason.
6. There were still two dissenting votes in this rate decision—Cook and Harker. This is the Fed's latest way in nearly half a year, after scrapping forward guidance and dot plots, to express attitude and break consensus. The message this time is still relatively hawkish.
7. The best thing said in this press conference was Waller mentioning that amid global turmoil, inflation expectations are moving in the right direction.
Overall, this press conference was neither impressive nor disappointing; the market's rise or fall will mainly depend on corporate earnings.
BTC is still weak, being tightly suppressed by the 20-day EMA. The gains from following Hynix's rebound during the day have all been given back. It seems we at least have to wait for the FOMC to hold rates steady or for other positive news on Thursday or Friday to drive a rally. After all, storage is still the main driver of the rebound, so BTC rising later is normal.
Fortunately, BTC ETFs saw net inflows of 110.3 million and 176 million USD on Monday and Tuesday respectively. Although this is only about one-third of the outflows from last Thursday and Friday, it still counts as timely braking. Having buyers stepping in is one of the prerequisites for bottoming here.
ETH doesn't need much separate discussion. As a more volatile version of BTC's trend, it’s unlikely to have an independent rally before BTC breaks through and holds. We can only say that when the big bull run comes, ETH’s gains will definitely be larger than BTC’s, but the start time is unknown.
Finally, from a pure market perspective, both BTC and ETH have returned to the recent box support bottom. If the Fed at 2:30 PM turns dovish, we might see a rebound. $BTC $ETH #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布
No need to gamble on no rate hike in October anymore; the probability of a rate hike in December is still high at 76.3%. According to the usual Fed style, they will first bring down this probability to eliminate the market's consensus expectation, then start hyping the December rate hike again around mid to late November to pull this probability back up #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布
SK Hynix's earnings report today was quite good, marking a strong start. Revenue reached 104 trillion KRW, with an operating profit margin of 80%. The overall average selling price of DRAM rose nearly 30% quarter-over-quarter, NAND increased about 25%, and the price hikes combined with a higher proportion of premium products jointly drove profitability. If Samsung and SanDisk's upcoming earnings reports follow this trend, we can expect a solid rebound cycle in the market.
The number of long-term contract customers increased from about 10 to 14, with typical contract durations of 5 years, and some customers are negotiating extensions. This covers over 50% of total capacity through 2027–28, maintaining a similar ratio in the mid-term. Including volumes under negotiation, it can even be considered that DRAM and HBM volumes are "effectively sold out" through 2029. Additionally, price and volume negotiations for 2027 HBM with major customers have been completed.
The full-year shareholder return plan is about 100 trillion KRW, which includes the 40 trillion KRW buyback announced in August and recently completed; this is not an additional 100 trillion KRW buyback today, but the figure is eye-catching enough for news headlines.
This earnings report shows NAND pricing remains strong, and enterprise SSD demand is improving the product mix. This weakens concerns that "SanDisk is about to face a simultaneous downturn in demand across the entire industry."
In the future, after SanDisk's stock price rebounds to a high level, SK Hynix's expansion of high-end NAND and enterprise SSD supply can also be interpreted as competitive pressure on SanDisk.
$SKHYNIX $SKHY $SNDK #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元
Generally, this kind of giant IPO usually first involves thematic hype before the bloodletting. Based on $SPCX's experience, the decline will start at the latest one week before the IPO.
From SpaceX's S-1 filing (May 20) to pricing (June 11), the early period was thematic speculation, and the last week was the squeeze.
Mapping this to Anthropic: before November 9 is the thematic period, from November 10 to pricing (the week before Thanksgiving) is the bloodletting period, with the peak 3 to 5 trading days before pricing. The midterm elections from November 3 to the roadshow on November 10 only have 4 trading days and are sandwiched by the big non-farm payroll data on November 6. Between this week and the midterm elections, it is more likely to be a pricing anchor rather than bloodletting.
At the same time, Anthropic's S-1 is possibly positive for this week's Microsoft/Google/Amazon earnings reports. The logic is that Anthropic's expenses are evidence of the necessity of capital expenditures by cloud providers. The primary funds raised from the IPO will ultimately flow back into the revenues of these three companies and chip manufacturers, so this bloodletting is a drain on the overall market but a transfusion for cloud providers. However, this returns to the paradoxical "left foot stepping on right foot" spiral ascent ladder cloud mode, raising the question of whether the market can still (pretend to) accept it.
Before SPCX's opening week, the crypto market once lost 180 billion in market cap. Anthropic might have a similar effect this time, meaning for short-term swing traders, if there is a rebound in early November, they should exit quickly to avoid risk and re-enter after the market stabilizes.
