Web山大王
Web山大王
长期关注 Crypto、AI、美股与宏观趋势。 相信 BTC 是数字黄金，也相信市场与万物皆有周期。坚持以价值发现为锚、以周期思维应对波动；OKB Holder，长期主义践行者。 专属社群已开启，点击右上角「群聊」即可加入。群内定期分享市场观点、交易策略与福利活动，期待与你一起交流、洞见周期。
2KFollowing
3.8Kfollowers
Feed
Livestream
Feed
Everyone in the group is closely watching Friday's nonfarm payroll data, with much discussion. The next step for the Federal Reserve—whether to continue raising interest rates or hold steady 🤔️—has become the most focused topic right now.
$BTC has just strongly broken through 80,000 from around 75,000, currently fluctuating near 80,500. There is still strong resistance at 82,000 above; if it cannot hold above that, there remains a short-term risk of a pullback.
$ETH is performing even stronger, rallying directly from over 2,200 to around 2,420. Resistance above is near 2,450; only after breaking through can higher targets be considered. Support below is around 2,400. The increase is clearly greater than Bitcoin's, but the overall trend still follows the broader market.
More important than the employment numbers is the reaction of U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index after the nonfarm data.
#非农在即，就业数据能否强化12月加息预期？
The veteran privacy coin $ZEC has been quite active recently.🙄️
The current price is around $1300-1320, up about 6-9% in the last 24 hours. Today it peaked at about $1347-1350 and dropped to around $1159, showing significant volatility.
Its market cap has surged into the top ten, roughly $22 billion. The most important event is the major NU7 upgrade around November 5th. Block time was cut from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, making transaction confirmations three times faster!
It has now become a mainstream investment product for institutions! Definitely impressive!
On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, Bitcoin has already started to stir. The October non-farm employment data will be released this Friday, and the market is watching to see if it will influence the Fed's subsequent policy path?🤔️
If the employment data is weak, expectations for rate cuts will rise, making it easier for funds to flow into crypto assets. If the data is too strong, interest rate pressure will increase, which may cause risk assets to face short-term pressure.
$BTC has strongly rebounded from the 75,000 low to above 80,000, with key support holding. Currently, the 82,000-85,000 range above is a clear resistance.
$ETH is performing even stronger, surging past 2,400 in one go, with a short-term rebound much stronger than Bitcoin. The real highlight is the non-farm data this Friday.
Regardless of the outcome, as long as you control risk well when trading contracts, there is an opportunity to profit. Haha😄
A sharp surge in the early session directly rebounded to near today's high, market sentiment quickly warmed up, and market activity noticeably increased.😄
The heavy-hitting non-farm payroll data is about to be released, which often quickly changes overall market sentiment.
$BTC is currently in the 76,500-78,000 range. Key support below is around 76,500; if broken, it may further decline. Resistance above is first seen at 78,000.
$ETH has relatively larger volatility, with a trend basically synchronized with BTC, currently around 2,250-2,300. Resistance above is quite dense, with obvious pressure in the 2,300-2,350 range. Whether it can effectively break through still depends on BTC's performance.
Fundamental news still needs close attention. After the employment data is released, the market direction may quickly switch. Some coins may rise along, while others could be directly hammered down.🤔️
During important data releases, it is still recommended to operate mainstream coins with low leverage for more prudence.
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期
The market has been steadily declining for several days, and watching the account shrink continuously really messes with you. 😮💨 Tossing and turning at night, unable to sleep, and during the day, not daring to open the market easily — that feeling of helplessness, those who understand, understand. 🤷
This week's focus is entirely on the non-farm payroll data. Only 29,000 new jobs were added in September, far below expectations, showing a clear slowdown in employment. The market's expectation for October is roughly in the 60,000-80,000 range. If it continues to be weak, the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates will significantly ease, and funds will more easily flow into risk assets.
$BTC is currently fluctuating around 76,000-78,000. Although there was a slight rebound after breaking below 77,000, it is still suppressed below the key moving average, and the RSI is also at a low level. The short-term weak trend has been ongoing.
$ETH is consolidating around $2,250, with support at $2,200 holding for now, and considerable resistance near $2,300 above. It is highly correlated with Bitcoin, and before the non-farm data is released, it will most likely continue to oscillate and consolidate.
Waiting for the actual non-farm data to come out before judging the direction is a more prudent approach. Take it slow; after all, the market never lacks opportunities.
Wednesday's minor non-farm payrolls and Friday's major non-farm payrolls are coming fiercely, and the Federal Reserve's December meeting has become the year-end focus!
Everyone in the group is discussing whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates in December? 🤔️ Currently, the market has pushed the probability of a rate hike to 70% to 80%. Whether subsequent employment data can reverse expectations is a key factor.
$BTC is currently trading in the $76,000–$77,000 range. The $76,000 level below is an important defense point; once broken, downward pressure will significantly increase. On the upside, it needs to effectively hold above $78,000–$80,000 for bulls to have further room.
$ETH is fluctuating around $2,250, with $2,200 as a key support level. Its movement heavily depends on Bitcoin's direction. Moreover, the fear and greed index has fallen back to 26, indicating that market funds' risk-averse sentiment is clearly heating up.
Year-end macro data and policy expectations continue to fiercely contend, and the overall trend remains very unclear.
In contract trading, there are opportunities to profit whether prices rise or fall; it all depends on whether you can grasp the market rhythm and control risks! Wishing everyone smooth trading!
#美国10月非农前瞻：就业增长或牵动12月加息预期
The crypto market has really been nerve-wracking these past few days. 😓 Binance was hacked for over 6 billion USD, and the market immediately panicked!
$BTC has now dropped to around 76,000, breaking short-term previous support with a clear increase in trading volume, causing a wave of long liquidations one after another. Below, first watch if 75,000 can hold; if it breaks, it could fall to 70,000.
After $ETH broke below 2200, its rebound has been very weak, with larger drops and volatility than Bitcoin, poor liquidity, and heavier short-term pressure. The 2200-2250 range above has become strong resistance, overall sentiment is panic, and the rebound strength is weakening.
It's best not to trade blindly now; wait for support to hold before considering action. The market is currently volatile and unpredictable, with no bottom in sight!
Let's see if the non-farm payroll data can boost the market a bit!
The new week has just started, and everyone is clearly on edge. We just caught a breather last Friday, but this Friday night the non-farm payrolls are coming again, and the market will collectively tense up once more!😞
If the non-farm numbers are higher, it means the US economy is still quite strong, and the Federal Reserve will be more confident in maintaining high interest rates or delaying rate cuts. The smaller the numbers, the stronger the signal of a soft economy, and expectations for rate cuts will rise, which is relatively friendly to risk assets.
$BTC is currently around seventy to eighty thousand. The low point caused by the Binance fund theft has seen a small rebound, but the price is still below the short-term moving averages, and the trading volume hasn't significantly increased—typical of a wait-and-see state.
$ETH is around 2300 USD, with a weaker rebound than Bitcoin and more obvious short-term resistance. Overall, it is still in a recovery phase; whether the real trend has strengthened still needs a few more days of observation.
This week's focus is the non-farm payrolls on Friday. If the data unexpectedly comes out strong, the dollar and interest rate expectations may rise again, short-term pressure will return, and Bitcoin continuing to test lower levels is not impossible?🤔️
The probability of another rate hike in December has surged to over 70%! 😓 It's basically set in stone.
At last month's meeting, 10 people agreed to hold steady for now, but surprisingly, 2 people demanded an immediate hike on the spot. Logan from the Dallas Fed even said there should be at least two more hikes, each by 0.25 points. The Fed folks are really ruthless!
$BTC is fluctuating around $77,000-$78,000. It fell sharply throughout October, sliding down from over $80,000, breaking the previous support range, showing clear short-term weakness. But the resistance at the $80,000 level is quite strong, making a rebound difficult.
$ETH is now around $2,250. It also dropped more in October, with funds clearly rotating back to Bitcoin. The key support is near $2,200, and the resistance band between $2,300-$2,350 is quite strong, making a breakout equally challenging.
There are strong expectations for rate hikes and the October non-farm payroll data is about to be released. The short term is already suffocated by rate hike expectations!
Let's see if the non-farm data can provide a clear direction once it's out.
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧
Institutional funds have been particularly unstable recently; they are optimistic today but may turn hostile tomorrow. Sometimes they rush in wildly, and other times they are eager to sell off, making ordinary people nervous as well.😮💨
In October, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $516 million for the whole month, a stark contrast to the $2.648 billion net inflow in September. In September, everyone was enthusiastically rushing in, but October was volatile, ultimately turning the monthly ledger from positive to negative.
$BTC is fluctuating around $77,000. After breaking previous support, momentum has clearly weakened. There is still resistance above, and if the support below doesn't hold, it may test lower levels again.
$ETH has dropped to around $2,260, weakening alongside Bitcoin, with limited short-term rebound strength. Coupled with continuous large ETF outflows, exchange hacks, and overlapping macro interest rate hike expectations, the entire crypto market is under considerable pressure.
This fully illustrates that institutional funds are currently engaged in intense short-term speculation, and large capital's confidence in Bitcoin is beginning to waver.
Hopefully, in the last two months of the year, we will see the market everyone is looking forward to. Wishing everyone a happy weekend!
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧
