Postaus

After Jackson Hole, I think the labor market has suddenly become much more important. Warsh described employment conditions as broadly consistent with full employment, pointing to the 4.1% unemployment rate and relatively low jobless claims. That gives the Fed more room to stay focused on inflation for now. But this week’s jobs data could test that view. Economists are looking for roughly 50K–55K new payrolls in August, with unemployment expected to remain around 4.1%. After July’s weak payroll number, another disappointing report could make the Fed’s tougher stance harder to maintain. Personally, I think the unemployment rate matters more than the headline payroll number this time. Job creation can look weak simply because labor-force growth is slowing. But if unemployment starts climbing together with weaker hiring, that would tell a much more concerning story. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh $BTC