The HBM trade is becoming a capacity allocation story, not just an AI demand story.
When memory inventory gets this tight, chipmakers face a choice: prioritize high margin HBM or supply conventional DRAM. That competition can push memory prices higher, but it also makes supply normalization the biggest risk to the trade.
SK Hynix has the advantage today, but Samsung's progress shows that leadership is not guaranteed.
#SamsungQ3ProfitOutlook
ARRIWYKS
#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings
#Hynix Cloud +AI HBM4 Cloud = Minnesflaskhals nu, inte GPU
HBM-marknaden $38B→$58B +52% 26E, $85B 27E. SK = 62% HBM-andel, *∼70% av NVDA Vera Rubin HBM4* (TrendForce) vs 50% uppskattat. 16 staplar = 576GB/stapel vs HBM3E 8Gb → 2x BW.
Varför optimistisk: Lager <10 dagar (första gången någonsin). Wafers 150-200k/mån 3-4x Micron, 50% → HBM4 = DDR5 pressat → Q4 DRAM +10-15% NAND +15-20%. JPM ser 20%
*Risker:* Samsung $8,7B HBM Q3 > SK $7,6B första gången*
*OKX-spel: Lång HBM hävstång, kort PC DDR.*
Ansvarsfriskrivning: OKX Orbit-innehåll tillhandahålls endast i informationssyfte. Läs mer
