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The U.S. midterm elections are on November 3rd. Historically, stocks generally perform poorly before midterm elections. Since 1950, the U.S. stock market has risen in the year following midterm elections. Currently, QQQ short positions are close to $80 billion, and the market is mostly cautious! A market reversal is very likely on November 4th or 5th! The more short positions there are, the greater the subsequent rise in the U.S. stock market will be! My personal view is that the market will stabilize on November 4th and surge on the 5th and 6th!To be honest, I used to easily interpret a decrease in company cash as a negative signal and rushed to set the market direction. Only after stumbling over this kind of judgment pitfall did I understand that without considering the purpose of the funds, the more eye-catching the headline, the more likely it is to mislead me.
As of the week ending November 1, deployable USD cash in the Strategy dropped from $242 million to $133 million, a 45.3% decrease, with preferred stock buybacks exceeding Bitcoin ($BTC) purchase volume. There is also an independent reserve of $4.79 billion intended to pay preferred stock dividends and debt interest.
I see this as a change in capital allocation, not directly equivalent to a lack of funds: buybacks occupy capital but do not mean all cash is used to buy coins; the independent reserve has other uses and cannot be counted as ammo ready to buy coins at any time. This reminds me of the atmosphere when news breaks and everyone rushes to bet on direction—ordinary people are most prone to rigidly translate company treasury changes into short-term price moves.
Now I follow two rules: first, clarify the capital scope; second, do not leverage based on a single piece of news. Staying alive is more important than rushing to answer.Price hasn't changed, but the position is gone
$SOXL opening price 81.6, $SKHY opening price 156.9.
Both prices are still at the original level, but the position is gone first.
How is this number calculated: 26 million wasn't lost all at once.
It was seven entries and exits combined, losing a little each time.
The price returned to the starting point, but the principal didn't come back.
Here's the problem: going back and forth in the same direction.
Chasing when it rises, cutting losses when it falls, then chasing again when it rises.
Each round pays a fee and slippage.
After seven rounds, the price is still the same price.
What's missing in the account is 26 million.
He will enter again in the next round, and the price will most likely still be this price.
#美股与金银同步大跌，避险资金流向分化
#$SOXL $SKHY 如果特朗普阵营在中期选举中失利，币圈和未来经济会发生什么变化？ 先明确一个关键背景：2026年美国举行的是中期选举，核心是国会席位的重新分配，并不是特朗普再次竞选总统。因此，我们真正需要关注的是共和党能否继续掌控国会，尤其是如果失去众议院，甚至参众两院都失去多数席位，未来美国政策会发生哪些变化。 先说核心结论：对加密市场而言，最直接的影响是政策预期、监管环境以及相关立法进程。至于币价是否会大幅下跌，美国经济是否会受到冲击，还需要结合选举结果与市场预期之间的差异，以及后续资金流向和政策变化综合判断。 仅凭共和党失去国会多数这一结果，就断言币圈必然暴跌、美国经济必然走弱，显然过于片面。 一、共和党失利，对加密市场有什么影响？ 首先受到影响的，很可能是市场此前建立起来的政策预期。 如果选举前有大量资金押注共和党继续掌控国会，并期待美国加密货币相关政策进一步放宽、立法加速推进，那么一旦选举结果明显低于预期，部分资金就可能重新评估持仓。 此前建立在政策利好预期上的估值溢价，也可能随之收缩。 这种情况下，短期出现获利了结和资金流出并不意外，尤其是那些高度依赖政治支持、监管放松预期以及市场情绪推动的Most people might take this kind of news as positive, but I’m used to hitting the brakes first. On the other hand, returning to normal and becoming stronger are two different things.
Liquid Network stated on X that Bitcoin reserves have been fully restored, and all LBTC has regained 1:1 BTC backing; weeks ago, BTC and LBTC redemption had already resumed. I prefer to see this as credit repair rather than a growth signal.
There are two reasons: 1:1 reserves answer whether there is sufficient backing, but it doesn’t equal the redemption experience—users still need to transfer assets through participating redemption service providers. Another is that users can run nodes to verify the federation reserve proof and also view the public dashboard; if they only read announcements without verification, then these transparency tools are not truly utilized. This is the other side I’m more concerned about.
Do you think restoring 1:1 backing is enough to rebuild trust, or should the redemption experience and ongoing verification also be considered? I welcome those with opposing views to debate.I see a reduction in issuance and usually calculate two things first: how much dilution is reduced and how much incentive must be sacrificed. Tightening supply can improve odds, but it doesn't automatically increase the probability of a price rise.
NEAR governance has approved a plan to lower the issuance cap to 1.6%, with the reduction scheduled over 24 months, which will reduce staking rewards. However, it still requires Security Council approval and validators to adopt the corresponding protocol upgrade before it can officially take effect.
I view this as a conditional positive for $NEAR holders. Governance approval brings the implementation closer than the proposal stage, but it cannot yet be counted as effective. If demand remains stable, reducing dilution helps improve holding expectations; if the reward decrease weakens validators' willingness to participate, then the security cost must be reassessed. For stakers, it's not just about the reduction in issuance but also the net effect after reward shrinkage.
I prefer to wait until both execution and incentives are clear. Facing this issuance reduction, do you value the odds after implementation more, or the odds priced in advance?Brothers, SNDK has dropped to 1096, and even a blockbuster earnings report can't stop the AI theme from fading
$SNDK $1,096
SNDK closed Monday with a sharp drop of 6.59% to 1075.08, with an intraday low of 1067.40; 1096 is basically the level after the post-market rebound. From the June peak of 2354, the pullback has exceeded 54%.
The core of the sell-off is no longer the earnings report. SNDK has fallen more than 35% cumulatively in October, making it the second worst-performing stock in the tech sector. The market is re-pricing whether AI capital expenditure can maintain this pace; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is overall cutting valuations, and SNDK, as a pure NAND play, has fallen the hardest.
The earnings numbers are solid. Q1 revenue was 11.03 billion, a year-over-year surge of 378%, with adjusted EPS of 49.51, both beating expectations. Data center revenue was 4.8 billion, up 61% quarter-over-quarter. The problem lies in growth: this quarter's revenue increased only 23% quarter-over-quarter, compared to 51% last quarter, and the contribution from price increases dropped from two-thirds to about 40%.
Analyst price targets are still sky-high. Among 25 covering analysts, most have buy ratings, with an average target price of $2029, implying about 89% upside. Morgan Stanley maintains a $1750 target, believing cloud demand can offset the decline in the consumer segment.
Technically, 1067 is Monday's intraday low and a key short-term level to watch. Before the November 20 stock split takes effect, the market is still debating whether the 85% gross margin is a ceiling.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The question I struggled with for half a year was answered by the King of Bhutan with a single decree: Is Bitcoin considered money or not? They didn't just issue a statement; they specifically established a new central bank, legally allowing it to hold Bitcoin, and even incorporated it into the national monetary system and reserve assets. In other words, on this country's ledger, BTC is no longer a speculative asset but a reserve item.
What’s most worth pondering about this matter is not the purchase volume, but the sequence. Previously, sovereign states encountering Bitcoin mostly first tacitly permitted it, then piloted it, and only finally discussed compliance. Bhutan directly transformed the most conservative institution—the central bank—into a container capable of holding Bitcoin. The container was built first; whether to fill it and how much to fill it with is the next step.
This is completely different from an ETF. An ETF is a passive channel; money flowing in and out is recorded on the market, visible the next day after selling. Central bank holdings are asset-side allocations, rarely moved for years, and won’t be cut just because of price drops. The psychology of holders is entirely different: one looks at performance rankings, the other at national credit.
For $BTC, this is a narrative-level plus. It won’t push the price up in the short term, but it clears the path for "states can legally hold it." Once this path is cleared, a second country will follow suit. Assets like $ETH still have to wait in line for regulatory classification for now.#AppleQ4iPhone18Outlook
Apple Q4 beat is done - 7.55M vol says YES won. But stock flat +0.06%. Why?
Q4 had first iPhone 18 Pro sales, yet community says component orders cut 15%. Beat last quarter, weak next quarter.
Real focus is outlook, not beat. New CEO rumor adds fear. iPhone 18 was AI iPhone - if demand soft, Apple needs new story.
Lesson: Beat doesn't matter if future is weak.
What did you think guys!!Did SanDisk break a cardinal rule?
It dropped so hard!
The earnings report was explosive, profits surged, yet the stock price plummeted like a kite with a broken string, falling from 1387 all the way down to 1096, cutting a third off in just half a month.
Many people were completely confused—how could the stock crash so much with such strong performance?
Actually, the real blow is hidden in its Japanese joint venture brother, Kioxia.
Kioxia's latest guidance revealed that after a previous surge, NAND flash memory prices might "stay flat" next quarter.
The logic of trading storage stocks has never been about how high the current price is, but about the speed of price increases.
Once growth peaks, even if profits continue, investors will not hesitate to flip the table.
Adding to this macro blow, although the Federal Reserve didn’t raise rates in October, the probability of a rate hike in December has soared above 70%, basically shattering any expectations of a rate cut.
High interest rates act like a pump, squeezing the breath out of these highly valued AI concept stocks.
Goldman Sachs data is even harsher—hedge funds have been frantically selling AI stocks for five consecutive days, wiping out all this year’s profits.
The combination of a tough macro environment and weak fundamentals has created a deep pit.
I entered a long position at 1176.4, now floating at nearly a 70% loss, but honestly, aside from a quick heartbeat when I first checked, I’m not panicking at all.
This drop is a double whammy of sentiment and valuation; a good company isn’t necessarily a good stock immediately.
But in this market, as long as your trump card is still in hand and you haven’t been forcibly kicked off the table, just wait for the panic selling to wash out.
Macro conditions always turn eventually, and the space lost to the drop will be returned sooner or later.
$BTC
$ETH
$SNDK
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ The U.S. midterm elections are voting today, and the results will be out tomorrow morning Beijing time. The prediction markets have almost finished voting on behalf of the voters: On Kalshi, the probability of the Democrats taking the Senate rose to 74% on Monday, the highest since the market opened; both platforms for the House of Representatives are between 92% and 94%, and the probability of winning both chambers is also 74%. In polls by The New York Times and Siena, the Democrats lead in seven swing states, including Kansas, which hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and Kalshi gives it 63%.
Last Thursday, Morgan Stanley calculated that during Republican presidential terms, when Congress is divided after midterms, the S&P 500 averages a 23% increase over the following year, while the Democrats winning both chambers only yields 16% for the S&P 500. $QQQ
The variable is the power in Congress. If either chamber changes hands, the Democrats gain subpoena power and are already pursuing donations from the White House banquet hall, with names including Cisco, Salesforce, Kraken, Apple, and Nvidia, each donating $25 million. The purse strings also fall under Congress's control; the "Build Back Better" Act plans to cut $911 billion in Medicaid by 2034, and Molina gets 75% of its premium income from this.
Winning both chambers is already priced in; the surprise would be the Republicans holding the Senate. That roughly 22% probability of divided government, if realized, according to Morgan Stanley's old data, is not bad for the market. If the Democrats win both chambers, Medicaid stocks and companies close to Trump will be hit first. Coinbase was just downgraded by Morgan Stanley to a $120 target price. With the new Congress in place, crypto regulations will likely be renegotiated, so even after voting, there is no relief. $BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ TRUMP dropped over 10%, but the position in the just-ended hour rebounded. OKX spot price at 09:10 is about $1.587, down about 10.03% in 24 hours. From 08:00 to 09:00, the price fell from $1.602 to $1.588, while the perpetual position value rose from about $15.98 million to $16.15 million.
I am more focused on the positions increasing during the decline. However, the rise in positions does not reveal the long or short direction. The spot trading volume in that hour was about $246,000, only 0.61 times the average of the previous 12 full hours, so this single hour alone cannot indicate increased selling pressure.
If the price continues to fall, positions keep increasing, and spot trading volume also significantly expands, I will reassess whether the decline is accelerating. If positions fall back, this rebound will just be a brief fluctuation.
$TRUMP Apple beat, but fell ~3% after hours. Not buying the dip yet.
Q4 revenue $114.5B, +12%.
EPS $2.10 vs $1.99 expected.
iPhone $57.6B, +17%.
Only 8 days of iPhone 18 Pro in there.
But Dec-quarter margin guide is 45-46%.
It was 47.9%. Memory costs bite.
I think the beat was priced in.
Margin is the new story.
Just watching.
Holds $328? Dip gets bought.
Back above $338? Fear was overdone.
Margin scare, or holiday iPhone rally?
$AAPL $MU
#USStocks #Earnings#非农来袭，12月加息会否生变？
Brothers, Dallas Fed President Logan dropped a harsh statement last night: "The Fed still needs to raise rates at least twice, totaling 50 basis points." She added sharply that don't expect skipping a meeting to change the endgame; the current policy rate is far from truly restrictive.
She is not fighting alone. The October FOMC vote was 10 to 2, with two officials demanding an immediate rate hike on the spot. Barkin and Mouselim also called for "early and gradual" tightening. CME pricing for a December rate hike has already surged above 70%.
What does this mean? The market game has changed. Now the worry is not "whether to hike in December," but "it won't be over after the hike." The risk-free rate is being pushed higher continuously, putting pressure on overvalued tech stocks and crypto assets alike. $BTC $ETH $SOL ETH and SOL Diverge: One Continues Weakness, the Other Clears Major Overhead Selling Pressure
Inside the market, capital battles are unfolding with completely different scripts. Ethereum has yet to escape its weak quagmire, while Solana has completed a long-suppressed bearish clearing event.
The weak tone of $ETH remains clear. Until it successfully holds above $2300, we have no sufficient reason to conclude the downtrend has ended. The on-chain NUPL indicator is at 0.0073, nearly touching the market breakeven line. Early ICO holders continue to sell and exit, continuously applying selling pressure. Interestingly, whale funds are quietly positioning around the $2200 range, with daily cumulative Ethereum purchases exceeding $100 million. Compared to chasing a brief spike rebound, layering positions at key support levels offers a much more comfortable risk-reward ratio.
$SOL has a bullish factor easily overlooked by retail investors: Nasdaq-listed company SkyAI has liquidated all its SOL holdings, realizing about $223.8 million. The large corporate selling pressure long hanging over SOL has thus been lifted. However, the price is still consolidating near $94. The $92.34 level is the core support baseline for this short-term rebound; if this point breaks, downside risk will increase again.
NEAR, AAVE, and UNI Each Hide Risk Signals
NEAR is currently priced around $3.87, having entered oversold territory on the daily chart, but the overall structure has not issued a clear bottoming signal. This looks more like a brief pause in a downtrend rather than a trend reversal. Short-term support is at $3.79, with resistance at $4.35. A noteworthy on-chain move: a whale closed NEAR long positions, realizing $4.43 million in profits, then positioned short on AAVE and BNB. Smart money has already made its judgment.
The current market state is a choppy bottoming process, not a strong upward push. Although Bitcoin shows initial signs of bottoming, many altcoins are still experiencing capital outflows. Blindly chasing short-term rebounds at this stage risks getting stuck halfway up. A safer approach is to follow whale behavior and wait for prices to reach key support zones before gradually positioning. Next, closely watch nonfarm payroll data and U.S. stock market sentiment; the market’s true reversal signal has yet to arrive.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 #Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值 $BTC #AMD Earnings Preview: HeliosAI System Commercialization Progress
Hidden Highlights in AMD's Earnings: AI Computing Power Business is Growing Bigger, Can Helios Bring New Profit Surprises?
AMD's data center revenue for Q2 2026 reached $6.7 billion, a year-over-year increase of 107%. The company previously forecasted Q3 revenue at about $13 billion, with a variance of $300 million, and a non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 56%.
This means the market already has high expectations for this earnings report.
The significance of Helios lies in AMD's attempt to enhance the overall value of its AI business.
But there is a key issue here: scale growth does not equal synchronized profit growth.
AI servers require a large number of advanced chips, memory, network equipment, and cooling systems. After production scales up, supply chain costs, product mix, and delivery efficiency will all impact the final profit.
Therefore, I believe this earnings report should not only be judged by whether revenue exceeds expectations but also by gross margin, data center business performance, and management's outlook for the next quarter.
A positive signal from AMD is that AI infrastructure is gradually moving toward actual deployment, and industry demand continues to expand.
As long as the commercialization process can continue to advance, profit growth has the opportunity to follow revenue growth.
What do investors fear most? It's not that a company temporarily runs slow, but that the market has already priced in the next ten years' achievements into today's stock price. Stay optimistic, but also leave some room for valuation to cool down. $AMD Yesterday, the short position on $ETH really gave me a hard time, but today I finally caught a wave of decline! Earlier, the long hedge on $BTC took a small hit; sensing the rebound was off, I closed it first. After $BTC surged to 78831, it really couldn't hold and dropped all the way back near 76,000! $ETH was quite strong yesterday, touching 2318, but today it fell straight back to around 2250. The short position I held finally saw a pullback! I said yesterday, this market lacks not news, but truly willing funds to chase prices! Now both coins have fallen back below the 4-hour short-term moving average. That previous rebound struggled for a long time but still couldn't break out! Oil prices also show a clear pullback, the US dollar and Treasury yields have weakened somewhat, yet tech stocks remain under pressure, and $BTC and $ETH continue to fall. The US midterm elections start voting tonight; has the market preemptively reduced risk exposure? I think it's possible, but we can't blame all the declines on the elections! I'm still bearish now, holding the $ETH short position, but I don't plan to blindly add at low levels! For $BTC, I'm watching if 76260 can hold; for $ETH, around 2230, with a further target at the previous low of 2172. After enduring so long to reach profits, I can't afford to pay tuition again!Good morning, $BTC is also doing well
Currently still regarded as a minor pullback within an upward structure
Just need to be cautious, as it may enter a longer period of consolidation
See the chart for market analysis, I have already found similar past sentiment for reference and simulation$GPRO
This GPRO candlestick pulled up 10.5% in one hour. Intraday, it touched a high of 1.1284 from 0.9288, currently at 1.0893, about 3% off the peak.
I checked around the news quickly but found no matching updates on the underlying stock, only the price increase. GPRO is the stock token for GoPro; these kinds of markets are naturally thin, so moves like this are mostly driven by market orders.
Looking at the liquidity pool makes it clear. GPRO contracts have a 24-hour trading volume of $1.08 million, while the neighboring XSNDK has $4.8 million. With this depth, throwing in a few tens of thousands of USDT can create a wick like the one above.
The fee rate is -0.0004%, effectively zero. Neither bulls nor bears are willing to pay for positions; this isn’t leverage-driven but caused by someone sweeping the thin order book with market orders.
I’m staying away from this ticket. It’s not bearish sentiment; it’s just hard to get in and out. When it really comes time to exit, the depth for taking over positions might not be enough to avoid slippage. The hype is real, but the money might not be.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ $BTC
Wintermute says 76800 is the next key support for Bitcoin. Looking at the chart, this level was just touched twelve hours ago at 76620, then after sweeping it, it bounced back to 77200.
What concerns me is something else. Fidelity Digital Assets moved 1722 BTC into several new wallets, which at the current price amounts to $132 million. When custodians move coins, the usual rule is to interpret it as selling pressure first.
But the market didn’t cooperate. The 24-hour low is 76620, now at 77200, sitting 400 points above support. Contract open interest climbed from 2.61 billion in the morning to 2.629 billion, no decrease. The funding rate is still hanging at the baseline of +0.01%, neither positive nor negative.
If there was going to be a dump, the funding rate would turn negative first, and open interest would drop first; neither has happened. The people moving the coins are either not selling or if they sold, someone else is absorbing it.
I’m holding no shorts; I won’t chase at this level. Below 76800 is where I recognize the real zone; this recent rise and fall has nothing to do with me.
#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展
Is AMD about to take off? Helios AI commercialization enters a critical phase, watch for three key signals in this earnings report!
At the hottest time in the AI industry, AMD has chosen a route worth watching: not just selling chips, but selling complete computing power systems.
Helios is an important representative of this route.
In my view, the three most important signals to watch in this AMD earnings report are:
First, commercialization delivery. Helios has entered mass production, and next we need to observe actual shipments, customer deployments, and delivery speed. Whether the product can enter customer data centers on time is more important than how impressive it looks at the launch event.
Second, customer demand. The involvement of partners like OpenAI, Meta, and Microsoft opens up a larger commercial imagination space for AMD. Whether future orders can continue to expand will determine Helios's growth potential.
Third, software ecosystem. Whether ROCm can continuously improve the development experience, model adaptation, and operational efficiency directly affects whether customers are willing to use the AMD platform long-term.
AMD's opportunity lies in the continuous growth of AI computing power demand, while large customers also want more supplier choices. As long as product performance, cost, and software experience form a competitive edge, AMD has the chance to gain more market share.
Of course, Nvidia's ecosystem advantage remains formidable, and AMD also needs to prove its strength with actual performance.
$AMD The heatmap colors do not represent the number of longs and shorts, and I think this is the easiest detail to overlook. Many people look at the chart to find out which side has more people; on the contrary, I am more cautious about this kind of intuition.
First, the colors reflect aggregated data, which cannot infer the advantage in the number of people; second, the payment intervals across platforms differ, and fee percentages cannot be directly compared either. My judgment: if the criteria are not aligned, the more intuitive the chart, the easier it is to be misleading. Do you think the heatmap can serve as a substitute indicator for the number of longs and shorts? Opposing opinions are welcome for debate.On one side, the passive channel is still offloading shares, while on the other, Strategy has scooped up 811 BTC into the treasury—about $65.5 million, with an average price of around $80,846, bringing total holdings to 849,327 BTC.
ETF outflows and listed companies exchanging newly issued shares for spot assets are not the same group of players; the misaligned timing is the real signal, so don’t just sum it up as "institutions are all running."
Buying in ≠ bottom confirmation. Source: Company 8-K + media summaries, confidence level moderately high. Do you trust "continuous buying" more, or "buying finished but still needing financing"?
$BTC #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？
$BTC $ETH The core of this midterm election is the battle for control of both chambers of Congress, which will directly change the scope for advancing U.S. fiscal, regulatory, and industrial policies, thereby affecting the pricing of major asset classes such as U.S. debt, the dollar, gold, and BTC. The market mainly focuses on three possible outcomes.
✅ Scenario 1: Divided Congress (market baseline expectation)
Each party controls one chamber, making large-scale fiscal stimulus, tax cuts, or tax hikes difficult to pass. Subsequent debt ceiling and budget negotiations are likely to drag on, with little chance for major policy moves.
👉 Market reaction: Expectations for fiscal expansion cool down, pressure on U.S. Treasury yields to rise weakens, benefiting gold; risk assets tend to fluctuate without a clear trend. New crypto regulations are also unlikely to be implemented quickly.
✅ Scenario 2: Republicans control both chambers
Fiscal stimulus, tax cuts, and relaxed industrial regulations are easier to advance, raising expectations for deficit expansion and bringing inflation risks back, leading to a repricing of Federal Reserve rate hike expectations.
👉 Market reaction: U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen, gold comes under pressure; relatively favorable for U.S. tech stocks and AI, BTC is likely to follow risk asset volatility in the short term.
📌 Reference price levels
Gold: support at 3900, resistance at 4020
BTC: support at 76000, resistance at 81000
👉 Trading strategy
Elections are expectation-driven events; focus on whether the outcome aligns with prior market forecasts. Avoid heavy positions before results. After results are announced, first observe the direction of U.S. debt and dollar correlations, then wait for market signals to confirm, strictly control position size, and set stop losses…Let me first do a straightforward calculation: if stocks are put on-chain, and trading becomes more convenient but voting remains cumbersome, the practicality will be compromised. The NYSE has chosen Broadridge to support on-chain shareholder voting, allowing token holders to participate via wallets, broker interfaces, or ProxyVote; the proposed trading venue still awaits regulatory approval.
I think this is a positive infrastructure development rather than a reason for speculation. First, multiple access points are expected to lower the operational barriers to voting participation; second, connecting shareholder rights is more useful than just improving trading convenience. But having a voting solution doesn’t mean the trading venue has been approved—these two calculations should not be mixed.
Between stability and risk, I choose stability: first watch the approval progress and actual user experience, and don’t rush to treat new features as mature services. If it were you, would you wait for regulatory approval and service launch before participating, or would you be willing to try wallet voting early after compliance opens up? Last night, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index in the US stock market dropped 3.3%. I thought Asia could catch a break, but this morning South Korea took over directly: KOSPI opened down 3%, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both falling over 4%—the entire index dragged down by the semiconductor sector.
Some people backstage are still using the argument "memory shortage until 2028, the strongest fundamentals globally" to prepare for bottom-fishing in memory stocks. I don't deny the fundamentals, but what's being hit now is never the fundamentals; it's the financing pipeline that fuels the AI chain. When that pipeline tightens, no matter how strong the story is, valuations have to take a hit first.
The crack has spread from the US to Asia; this is no longer just a sentiment issue in a single market, but a collective loosening among a class of trades. My stance hasn't changed: at this point, being bearish feels more comfortable than bullish. The heroes who catch the falling knife are often the first to have their accounts wrecked.#美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ This is not only a political contest deciding control of Congress but also a critical juncture affecting subsequent fiscal, legislative, and crypto industry fate. This election will renew all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats, with results directly determining future policy direction and regulatory agenda.
This round of elections sees unprecedented crypto industry investment, aiming to push the CLARITY Act into law and define regulatory boundaries between the CFTC and SEC. Crypto-related political action committees have invested about $206 million, lobbying lawmakers vigorously to secure a friendly regulatory framework.
Two scenarios to distinguish: If Republicans hold both chambers, expectations for crypto legislation advance, benefiting BTC; if Democrats regain one or both chambers, regulatory tightening expectations rise, making bill progress harder and likely suppressing the market.
November brings a cluster of macro data: CPI and nonfarm payrolls released simultaneously, combined with Fed rate expectations, multiple variables resonate. Currently, BTC is trading in a narrow range, with funds waiting and watching for the shoe to drop.
Historically, after three midterm elections, BTC has entered a bottoming phase, though the bottom realization cycle shortens each time. Technically, assuming this round is wave four of correction, after the election settles and bearish factors clear, there is a chance to start wave five upward, with the first target at 90000.
But waves are just projections, not certainties. Election results below expectations or a rebound in US Treasury yields could break this bullish scenario.
Key focus: Congress control results, subsequent statements on the CLARITY Act, US Treasury yields, and ETF fund flows. Here's a strange thing: when the coin price drops, everyone looks for reasons, but the answer lies in a number no one watches—the total market cap of stablecoins. It dropped from 270.3 billion to 263.4 billion in one month, with 6.9 billion USD withdrawn.
In plain language: the casino chips have decreased by a round. With fewer chips but the same number of players at the table, every bet is more likely to flip the table. That's why $BTC rises for two days and falls for three, and every rebound falls short.
What does a bull market look like? It's when new chips are brought in truckloads. Now, chips are being taken out truckload by truckload, and this has been going on for over a month without stopping.
Someone asked if it's time to bottom-fish. I don't know, I only know that when chips decrease, catching the falling knife requires more patience.Historically, after every U.S. midterm election, $BTC has experienced a decline.
And the next midterm election is tomorrow.
Will history repeat itself this time? 👀#Palantir Financial Report Outlook: Can High Growth Support a High Valuation? No matter how good the earnings report is, it can't drive the stock price up; when it rises too high, institutions will cash out and harvest profits.
Have you noticed that whenever there's good news, someone sells off immediately?
Google, Intel, and SanDisk all had revenue growth, yet their stocks still fell. As long as performance doesn't exceed expectations, it's punished directly. The market's appetite was fed too much by previous gains, so even if the earnings meet the target, the stock price may not rise.
It's not that the fundamentals are bad, but expectations are too high, so when good news comes out, everyone takes the opportunity to take profits.
AI and technology are still developing, but risks need to be watched; sentiment in the US stock market has already weakened. High-volatility assets like BTC and ETH are also easily used for this, and altcoins will fall even more sharply.
Rather than looking at earnings data, it's better to watch capital flows.
Now ordinary good news is no longer effective; the market is not speculating on earnings growth but on capital flows. Let's first look at a number that's easy to overlook: the total market cap of stablecoins, which has dropped from $270.3 billion on October 1st to $263.4 billion. In just over a month, $6.9 billion has left this market. This isn't a single-day spike; it's a continuous gentle downward slope.
Why is this more important than the candlestick chart? Because the stablecoin market cap roughly equals the cash available on exchanges. When it rises, it means money is flowing in from outside; when it falls, it means someone has exchanged for fiat and left. Price is the result; stablecoin market cap is closer to the cause.
Analyst CW8900 puts it plainly: bull markets usually come with capital inflows, but now inflows have stopped, and there has been a continuous net outflow for over a month, while $BTC is in a bearish phase. When these two things overlap, the nature changes — it's not high-level oscillation or turnover, but a shrinking capital pool.
The mechanism is also easy to understand. When the pool shrinks, the same buy orders can push prices higher, but the same sell orders create deeper dips. So rebounds in this phase tend to be quick and shallow because there is no new money to take over. A true reversal usually doesn't start with a big bullish candle but with the stablecoin market cap stopping its decline and then rising continuously for several weeks — that's when the money is truly coming back.
One point worth considering: losing $6.9 billion out of a $270 billion pool isn't a large magnitude, but the direction hasn't changed for a month. The destructive power of a trend lies not in magnitude but in persistence. Instead of focusing on daily charts, it's better to check this stablecoin curve weekly to see when $BTC can rise.Be patient with dollar-cost averaging, it's time to go all in.
To be honest, still considering the Nasdaq 100 as the "best global asset" is somewhat path-dependent. The Nasdaq is essentially an AI cluster, with a few tech giants occupying an increasingly large weight in the index. Its valuation already factors in the most optimistic growth expectations for the next few years. AI capital expenditure has entered a crazy burn phase, and if profit realization falls even slightly short of expectations, both valuation and earnings forecasts could be hit hard.
Looking at the A-shares market, the real industrial advantages are becoming clearer: a complete industrial chain, manufacturing scale, engineer dividends, plus continuous upgrades in industries like new energy, robotics, semiconductors, computing power, and high-end manufacturing. Many assets have undergone years of valuation digestion, and market expectations remain relatively low, which actually provides room for a double boost of profit improvement plus valuation re-rating.
The Nasdaq has great companies but is too expensive with overly optimistic expectations; A-shares have increasingly strong industries but valuations have not fully caught up yet. One is overdrawing the future, the other is waiting for revaluation. At this point, I’d rather bet on the revaluation of Chinese assets than take the last baton for the Nasdaq. [Cheer][Cheer][Cheer]BTC is currently trading around $77,000, down 1.4% in 24 hours, struggling near $78,000 trying to recover. Technically, it shows both oversold conditions and divergence. The daily RSI is at 38.97, sellers still dominate, but the 4-hour MACD has formed a golden cross, indicating improving buying momentum, though both lines remain below the zero axis. The first resistance to break above is $78,219; surpassing this level could open space toward $79,485 and $80,508. On the downside, $77,761 and $76,460 are two progressively stronger supports. Looking at a longer timeframe, the 50-week moving average at $75,728 has held for seven consecutive weeks, which is the last evidence that the bull market structure has not yet collapsed. The news is the real driver behind this round of decline. The Binance hack on October 29, involving about $6.3 billion, slammed BTC from above $80,000 down to $76,173, with over $1.5 billion liquidated in the derivatives market. Then on October 30, spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $643 million in a single day, the largest since June; BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for $233 million, and no product recorded net inflows that day. The Fed's hawkish stance and cooling rate cut expectations have raised risk-free yields, directly increasing the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin. The daily close direction at $78,219 is more worth watching than the 4-hour golden cross. The hack is a clear factor, ETFs are withdrawing, and the 50-week moving average is the bulls' last anchor—if it holds, there is still room for oversold recovery; a daily close below $77,761 means $76,460 is the next real test.$ZEC This morning I compared BTC and ZEC side by side: both are falling, but the ways they fall are completely different. One still has people adding in, the other has fewer and fewer. I'll set ETH and SOL aside for now and discuss them after this.
First, look at BTC: around 76811, down 1.91% in one day, position size 53.886 billion, with a 1.52% increase in position size in one day; liquidations of 91.57 million in one day, the highest among the four, yet the position size did not decrease but increased. The liquidated positions were taken over by others, this is called turnover.
Now look at ZEC: around 1136, down 8.02% in one day, more than four times BTC's drop; position size only 2.33 billion, down 3.75% in one day; liquidations of 14.52 million in one day, about one-sixth of BTC's. Not many people were liquidated, people are withdrawing on their own, this is called ebb.
The cost basis on both sides is similar: BTC's capital cost is 0.0109%, ZEC's is 0.0101%, leverage is equally expensive; the divergence is not in cost but in staying or leaving. ETH and SOL are in the middle: ETH down 0.94%, most resistant to the drop, but position size decreased by 0.90%; SOL down 2.66%, position size still increased by 0.62%. The whole network longs vs shorts is 49.11 to 50.89, all four positions are close to the ground in one hour, and the market hasn't decided yet.
My rating is straightforward: if you want to take over, stand on BTC's side, there's still money to catch on the dip; for ZEC, before its daily position turns positive, I treat any rebound as a chance to reduce positions, not a bottom-fishing signal. With this comparison laid out, don't pick the wrong side.Last night I was watching the market until almost midnight, and the screen suddenly went quiet for a moment, then BTC went to test the 77,273 level again. Has this dip really ended? At that moment, I was staring at the candlestick chart, and my heart actually skipped a beat. BTC touched around 77,442 again, down 0.89% in 24 hours, with a high of 78,867 and a low of 77,273. The 4-hour long-short ratio rose from 2.29 to 2.40, with open interest contracts at 2.603 billion USD. The numbers don't look big, but there's a story in the structure: in the past 4 hours, longs were liquidated by 1.92 million USD, while shorts only exploded by 346,000 USD. This is not a simple shakeout, but more like a targeted squeeze, with leveraged longs pushed to the most uncomfortable position. What concerns me more is that after the new low, even 77,601 was not reclaimed. This detail is more important than the drop itself. It shows that the bottom-fishing hands are slowing down, tentative buying is not decisive, and market sentiment is sliding from "rushing to catch the rebound" to "let's wait and see." The fear is not screaming but silent, and this kind of emotion is often more wearing. ETH is unusually quiet. At 2,269, it only dropped 0.04% in 24 hours, with a high of 2,318 and a low of 2,248. Neither up nor down has strength, as if waiting for BTC to give direction. With ETH not moving, altcoins lack a backbone, and risk appetite is hard to truly open up. At this time, funds prefer to hide in certainty rather than bet on volatility. The bullish path is actually clear: after the long liquidation, if BTC can stand firm above 77,601 again, short covering will bring a period of recovery, the m$ZEC $ZEC Update Day 15: Only 3% left to the liquidation line
Yesterday the post still showed an unrealized loss of $390,000, but this morning it has turned into an unrealized loss of $2,350,000. $ZEC has dropped from yesterday's high of $1,284 down to around $1,151 now, a 24-hour drop of about 5.5%.
Based on the position opened on October 20: the cross margin position of 15,000 coins has an unrealized loss of about $990,000, the isolated margin position of 14,800 coins has an unrealized loss of about $1,360,000, totaling an unrealized loss of about $2,350,000. Compared to the peak unrealized profit of $3,550,000 on the 11th, it has retraced about $5,900,000.
More critically, the isolated margin liquidation price is about $1,120, and the current price is less than 3% above it. The last time it approached 6%, the post reached a series high of 22,200; this time it directly hit 3%.
Assuming the position has not changed since opening, actual position changes have not yet been confirmed. The NU7 upgrade is imminent (around November 5), and the position, liquidation, and upgrade lines are converging at the same point.今天（11 月 3 日）美国中期选举投票，35 个参议员席位和全部 435 个众议员席位改选。币圈为什么要在意？因为 CLARITY Act（加密市场结构法案）的命运，今晚见分晓。 1. 参议院归谁：银行委员会主席换不换 现在参议院 53:47（共和党:民主党），民主党需净增 4 席才能翻盘。这直接决定参议院银行委员会主席：共和党保住→Tim Scott 连任，对行业友好；民主党翻盘→Elizabeth Warren 上台，她是坚定的加密怀疑派，一直主导反对 CLARITY。这是今晚对币圈最直接的一个变量。 2. CLARITY 法案：60 票门槛才是真正的墙 众议院版本去年 7 月已过（294:134），参议院银行委员会今年 5 月也过了（15:9），但 9 月 15 日参议院程序投票 49:50，没达到 60 票门槛。关键点：60 票这个门槛不随多数党改变——共和党需净增 7 席、民主党需净增 13 席，谁都够不着。所以看的不是谁赢，而是赢完之后两党愿不愿意跨党合作；明年 1 月 3 日前不过，法案作废重来。 3. 几个关键参议员选战 Texas（Paxton vs TalaricBinance's net outflow has risen to $5.8 billion, yet BTC has bucked the trend with a 0.48% increase. Is this a recovery after the bank run, or has the market lost sensitivity to risk? 1. News. According to public reports, after Binance resumed withdrawals, the net outflow scale rose to about $5.8 billion. Other reports indicate that THORChain suspended some swaps due to block reorganization issues, slowing hacker fund transfers. Price-wise, BTC is at $78,355.7, up 0.48% in 24 hours but still down 2.58% over the past week, with a 20-day low of $76,265.2. Exchange incidents continue to impact funds, on-chain activity, and market dynamics. 2. Fund impact. The latest single-day net inflow for BTC ETFs is $34.7 million, with a 5-day net inflow of $413.8 million and a 10-day net inflow of $176.9 million. The US Dollar Index stands at 101.92, up 0.04% intraday, and gold is up 0.42%. ETFs have not turned to outflows, indicating that allocation funds have not yet withdrawn; however, the single-day inflow has noticeably narrowed, so risk appetite has not fully recovered. 3. BTC implications. Net outflow itself does not mean Binance is insolvent; it may also represent users withdrawing coins back to self-custody. What is truly concerning is whether compensation, reserves, and on-chain recovery can form a closed loop. The price rising amid the event indicates that the most panic-driven selling has temporarily passed; however, the weekly chart remains negative, suggesting this is more of a risk-priced recovery rather than confirmation of a new trend. 4. Observation indicators. I will be watching four indicators next: first, whether Binance's net outflow continues to expand; second, the single-day net inflow of BTC ETFsBrothers, the midterm elections are tomorrow
Here is Bitcoin's performance after the last 3 midterm elections, scaled to today's price:
2014: dropped 48% within 71 days → about $40,500
2018: dropped 51% within 39 days → about $38,400
2022: dropped 15% within 13 days → about $66,300
These lows were all bear market bottoms
One year after the election: +24% / +45% / +92%Storage results release, can the sector see a recovery?
The fundamentals remain strong (shortage + high profits + locked production capacity), but stock prices have already priced in concerns about the cycle. This round of intensive performance verification confirms the current prosperity but has not completely dispelled the "peak" trading sentiment. The sector has room for an oversold rebound, but the sustainability and strength depend on subsequent price guidance, AI spending data, and risk appetite, rather than the quarterly performance itself. Operationally, it is necessary to distinguish between leading original manufacturers and mid-to-lower stream elasticity, and be wary of amplified volatility.
The above is an objective summary based on public information and does not constitute investment advice. The market is highly volatile; it is recommended to make independent judgments based on your own risk tolerance.$BTC The US midterm elections vote today, with results gradually coming out tomorrow morning Taipei time. Looking at the OKX daily chart, the BTC volatility on the “day after vote counting” for the past 4 US elections:
· 2018 midterms: 1.6%, only 0.6 times the usual
· 2020 election: 5.5%, 1.5 times
· 2022 midterms: 16.6%, 5.8 times, but that day was the FTX crash, not the election
· 2024 election: 10.2%, 3.2 times
Large fluctuations caused by the election itself only appear in presidential election years; for the two midterms, one was quieter than usual, the other was a black swan hitting the date.
Currently BTC is about 77,150, with a 30-day average daily volatility of 2.4%, only about 1% above the October low of 76,265. If it scans the previous low tomorrow morning, it is more likely due to leverage being liquidated rather than the election changing the trend.
Midterm elections are noise; 76,265 is the signal.
Not investment advice | Data: OKX BTC-USDT daily (UTC), sample only 4 times #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ If you treat this round of decline merely as a "whale panic," you might miss what really needs attention. Is your position moving based on emotion or according to rules? The alarm didn’t go off at 3 a.m., but the dollar-cost averaging bot quietly made a purchase for me. Waking up to see the transaction record was quite a fascinating moment. 400 USDG, average price $77,512.8, accumulating 0.00516043 BTC. The amount isn’t large, but it records a decision not driven by emotion. 🌙 What's interesting is how quickly human sentiment changes. When it was 85K, everyone was talking about 150K; after dropping to 77K, voices shouting 50K reemerged. The price only moved one notch, but the narrative completely changed, indicating that what’s trading now isn’t fundamentals but emotions and position comfort levels. From the sector strength perspective, BTC often serves as the first line of defense at this stage: if it falls, altcoins fall faster; if it holds steady, capital dares to look back at ETH and thematic tokens. So I’m not rushing to judge the direction; I’m first checking if the risk management line has been breached. The bullish path is that after panic selling clears, BTC stabilizes first, risk appetite gradually returns, ETH follows, and altcoins have the soil for rotation. The bearish risk is that if the 77K area is just a relay rather than a buffer, and high-leverage longs continue to be liquidated, the altcoin catch-down drop will be duller and longer than expected. My approach hasn’t changed: no contracts, no chasing emotions, no changing plans because of a single bearish candle. The meaning of dollar-cost averaging has never been to buy at the lowest, but to keep decisions from being swayed by 3 a.m. panic $CORE 🚨 The hard fork recovery is complete, but trust restoration has only just begun.
On November 2nd, the Core network recovered 68,146,177.22 CORE from three attacker addresses through a hard fork, accounting for about 70.22% of the involved assets. The key points are: no transaction rollbacks, no additional issuance, and no change in total supply. This restraint in handling is more telling than the amount recovered.
However, the incident involved about 97,045,600 CORE, with approximately 28,899,400 still pending recovery; exchange-frozen assets are still being pursued, and recovered funds have not yet been distributed to users. Beyond the numbers, the market cares more about whether the process is verifiable.
I judge that short-term sentiment will be soothed by the "70% recovery," but mid-term trust depends on three things: whether the remaining assets can continue to be recovered; whether b14g's user refund plan is fair and transparent; and whether CoreDAO's ecosystem support, responsibility boundaries, and funding sources are clearly explained.
So my first reaction is not to celebrate, but to see if the commitments can be fulfilled. Crises amplify the ecosystem's weaknesses and expose the quality of governance. What do you think, which better restores confidence: asset recovery or transparent communication?
Personal opinion, not investment advice, DYOR. #美国中期选举在即，哪些结果值得关注？ #苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单 【LSK burns 105 million tokens in one year, even abandoning its own public chain. Can this transformation succeed?】
Lisk has completely changed its track this time. On November 2nd, Lisk Chain officially shut down, and about 5.2397 million LSK tokens remaining will be burned. Along with the 100 million tokens burned in September, the total supply has been reduced by over 105 million tokens, bringing the total $LSK supply down to 300 million, with the inflation rate dropping to zero.
Lisk has given up continuing to operate its own Layer 2 and is shifting to enterprise financial services, attempting to integrate accounts, fiat and stablecoin payments, approvals, and portfolio management into one platform. LSK has also transformed from an original ecosystem token into a platform loyalty token, planned to be used for enterprise rewards and platform fee payments starting in 2027.
The reduction in supply certainly helps improve token scarcity, but 5.23 million tokens only account for about 1.75% of the total supply. What truly determines LSK's future value is whether the new business can generate sustainable revenue and whether that revenue can translate into real token demand. Burning solves the supply issue, but enterprise clients and actual usage are the demand issues. If the new platform fails to take off, no matter how scarce the token is, it will just be a token that nobody needs.Binance has released the latest snapshot of its zero-knowledge reserve proof, allowing users to independently verify a 1:1 backing of assets including BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, etc.; assets lost in the previous record-breaking hack have been replenished to about 95%. Source: The Block.
In simple terms, this is about closing the trust gap, not new positive news. PoR lets users check the underlying accounts themselves, and the replenishment to 95% indicates the funding gap has been largely filled, significantly reducing the likelihood of a bank-run style withdrawal. For BNB, this feels more like stopping the bleeding rather than a catalyst.
Two scenarios to observe: one is when the remaining gap will be fully replenished, and the other is whether PoR snapshots can be updated frequently rather than released only on special occasions. Which do you care more about—the progress of gap replenishment, or the frequency of snapshot updates? Tom Lee suggested in an interview that the current sell-off in the AI sector has most likely reached the bottom area. His core logic is that the current AI track is supply-constrained rather than suffering from overcapacity, and the industry's long-term demand framework has not been disrupted.
An interesting observation: even with consecutive negative shocks, risk assets have not continued to break down, indicating that marginal selling pressure has been continuously released. However, he also specifically warned that the bottom area itself is full of uncertainty and should not be simply understood as an immediate reversal; there is still the possibility of repeated downward probes.
In my view, this is more a judgment on sentiment and chip distribution levels. Whether a rebound can ultimately occur depends on two things: first, earnings fulfillment on the financial report side, and second, the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations. If inflation rises again and rate cut expectations are delayed, even if chips are cleared, the rebound space will be suppressed.
Currently, it is not suitable to directly heavily bet on a reversal. You can wait for two confirmation signals: the sector no longer follows negative news to hit new lows, and funds begin to flow back into leading stocks. The bottom game has a low tolerance for errors; it is better to wait for the turning point confirmation than to bottom fish prematurely and gamble on the lowest point.#BTC continues to face pressure, with capital and market trends diverging
During the hour around 1 AM Beijing time, SOL perpetual contracts dropped from 93.38 to 91.52, and BTC also dipped. This was less than a day before the US midterm election voting.
I just reviewed the OKEx forced liquidation orders; almost all liquidations in that hour were longs: about 67 BTC, 2,525 ETH, and 25,600 SOL, with shorts only a small fraction. The long liquidations for these three coins in that hour exceeded the total of the previous 12 hours combined.
At first, I thought it was due to election news. But no news came out; it was just a timing coincidence, so don’t blame the election for this.
The drop wasn’t actually large, BTC’s decline was less than 1%. The forced liquidations clustered in one hour indicate many were holding leveraged positions waiting for a result, but since nothing happened, the longs got shaken out first.
In the next two days, news will only get denser. If you want to bet on the outcome, don’t set your liquidation price too close to last night’s low; reduce your leverage by one level first.
Last night, BTC’s lowest hourly close was 76,667. If it breaks below that before the vote count is out, I’ll admit I underestimated this post.Can $AMD's earnings report turn the tide and save the current tech stock downturn?
The entire semiconductor sector is currently in a slump. After Intel's earnings shock, memory and AI chips have collectively faced sell-offs. The market is pinning its hopes on the upcoming AMD earnings report, expecting it to reverse the sector's decline. However, relying on a single earnings report to directly "save the market" is very challenging.
✅ Positive factors that could boost confidence
The market's core focus is on the commercial rollout of the Helios rack-level AI system. AMD has secured gigawatt-level deployment orders from top clients like OpenAI, Meta, Anthropic, and Azure. Institutions expect the earnings report to confirm AI chip revenue growth and Helios shipment progress. If revenue, gross margin, and next quarter guidance all significantly exceed expectations, AMD and the entire AI chip sector could see a short-term rebound after hours, repairing the current extremely pessimistic market sentiment.
⚠️ Core constraints making it difficult to truly save the market
1. On the macro level, the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations are the underlying factor suppressing growth stock valuations. A single company's earnings report is unlikely to change the systemic pressure caused by U.S. Treasury yields and rate hike expectations.
2. Sector confidence has already been damaged. Intel's earnings shock has made investors more cautious about semiconductor earnings guidance. Even if AMD's data is impressive, it is difficult to directly reverse the downward trend of the entire memory and chip sector.
3. Expectations have already been priced in. If guidance only slightly meets expectations and does not reach the market's most optimistic forecasts, a "good news sell-off" with a spike and subsequent fall is likely.【Palantir Revenue Surges 96%, Commercial Revenue Surpasses Government Orders for the First Time】
$xPLTR Q3 revenue reached $2.313 billion, a year-over-year increase of 96%, with GAAP earnings per share of $0.44. U.S. commercial revenue hit $984 million, surpassing government business revenue of $953 million for the first time. The market previously viewed it as a software company reliant on government and military contracts, but now enterprise clients are becoming the new growth engine.
The underlying logic is that enterprises are starting to move AI from chat tools into actual business operations. Palantir's AIP platform can connect internal enterprise data, AI models, and business processes, enabling AI to truly participate in production, supply chain, and decision-making. U.S. commercial revenue has grown nearly 30% quarter-over-quarter for two consecutive quarters, with an adjusted operating margin of 62%, indicating strong monetization capability. The full-year revenue guidance has also been raised to above $8.53 billion.
A detail in the earnings report: the growth rate of total contract value for U.S. commercial orders dropped from over 153% last quarter to 11%, and some large orders now have shorter durations than before. Despite impressive revenue, the cooling order growth is also why the stock price fell nearly 3% in after-hours trading following the earnings release.
I remain optimistic about Palantir's long-term AI commercialization capabilities. The market's current valuation already includes very high growth expectations; what needs to be proven next is whether enterprise orders can continue to expand.
#Palantir财报前瞻：高增长能否支撑高估值