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U.S. tech stocks are discounted, and cryptocurrencies share the same fate
"Discount" refers to the valuation digestion of tech stocks, while cryptocurrencies are undergoing a "liquidity test." In the short term, cryptocurrencies will still "breathe and share fate" with tech stocks, with even greater volatility; in the medium to long term, institutionalization (ETFs, compliance) is building a bottom line for them, but the era of huge profits has shifted to "selective assets."
Key observation indicators: Nasdaq 100 index trend, 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows, and AI monetization earnings reports from major tech giants (NVIDIA/Microsoft).
Scenario analysis
Optimistic (risk appetite rises): If AI investment returns are validated and the Federal Reserve shifts to easing, liquidity will flow back in, and Bitcoin is expected to challenge previous highs or even reach the $120,000–$170,000 range, ushering in a second wave of institutional-driven growth in the crypto market.
Pessimistic (liquidity crisis): If tech stock sell-offs evolve into systemic deleveraging, Bitcoin could drop to the $50,000–$65,000 range, and altcoins may face a clearance-style decline of over 80%.#苹果新CEO迎来iPhone18首份成绩单
Apple Q4 Earnings Preview: Likely Slightly Above Expectations, But Guidance Is Key
Apple will release its fiscal 2026 Q4 results after market close on November 2. Wall Street consensus: revenue around $113 billion (about +10% year-over-year), EPS about $1.98-2.00. The company previously guided revenue growth of 9%-11%, basically in line with expectations.
Historical data favors Apple—multiple past quarters have consistently beaten estimates. Double-digit growth in iPhone and resilience in services business are expected to support a slight beat, but supply chain constraints, rising memory costs, and the new CEO's first earnings call mean the market is more focused on holiday season guidance.
Numbers will likely meet expectations, but the real tone will come from management's outlook for the December quarter.
$AAPL$One detail often overlooked: a certain platform's user compensation fund is not held in U, but reserved in $BTC. To actually compensate, BTC must first be sold to convert into U, which means about 18,000 BTC (approximately $2.4 billion) could become potential selling pressure inventory. Although the hacker incident did not directly crash BTC, the panic sentiment combined with this "overhanging chip" creates significant pressure.
BTC's technicals have shown fatigue: the price is close to the 30-day low of 77,430, RSI is only 36.5, and MA7/20/30/60 are all pressing from above, with the bearish arrangement not yet reversed.
On the other hand, $ZEC has instead taken on the narrative of privacy and self-custody, with Grayscale Trust seeing net inflows for 8 consecutive days; the price stands above MA7/30/60, up 11% in 7 days, RSI at 51.8 is neutral, and the current price of 1,276 still has room to reach the 30-day high of 1,372.
$XRP is the weakest: the hacker-controlled XRP wallet still holds 290 million coins not transferred out, equivalent to a long-term looming sell-off risk, and Ripple's self-rescue efforts have little direct impact on the coin price. Technically, 1.2487 is close to the 30-day low, RSI 37.9, and all five moving averages 1.2932, 1.3124, 1.3581, 1.3961, 1.3294 are suppressing from above, down 16% in 30 days, the worst performance.
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #加密行业协同守护资产安全 Before the December decision, BTC first watches the data closely 👀
My observation order: economic data > official statements. Inflation and employment are hard indicators; speeches are more about managing expectations.
September core PCE year-on-year at 3.1% indicates inflation stickiness remains; Musalem is somewhat hawkish, but individual voices cannot be directly equated with December actions. The key upcoming data are November 6th Nonfarm Payrolls and November 10th CPI. If both employment and inflation remain strong, tightening expectations may swing back, putting pressure on BTC's rebound; if data cools down, policy pressure eases, but weakening employment could also trigger growth concerns, so don't automatically translate "weak data" as "bullish" 😅.
Looking at the chart, BTC has yet to effectively reclaim the 24-hour rolling high near 78802 after the rebound. If data cools and price stands above and holds on a retest, the recovery is more credible; if it breaks below the low near 76265 and the bounce is weak, short-term recovery should be put on hold 📉.
My approach: don't short just because of a hawkish speech, nor go long on a single data point; wait for the numbers to land and see if rate expectations and price confirm each other in the same direction ✅.What I care about most is not the anniversary, but the phrase in the material: "Small businesses still face the impact of inflation and rising costs." The white paper is celebrating its 18th anniversary, and discussions about Bitcoin's original intention to replace the traditional financial system and repeated financial bailouts have resurfaced. I think this is more like a demand reminder and cannot be directly counted as a price boost for $BTC.
If I were to write it as a strategy, I would set a rule: if the pressure from inflation and operating costs persists, put the "demand for alternative currency" on the watchlist, but do not directly trigger price judgments. After learning quantitative analysis, I am a bit afraid of taking a story that sounds reasonable as an effective signal.🤖
The advantage of this rule is that it shifts attention from the anniversary back to the real pain points. My speculation is that if small businesses' dissatisfaction with the existing system deepens, alternative solutions may gain more attention. But the loophole is also obvious: complaining about high costs does not equal willingness to bear price volatility; paying attention to Bitcoin does not equal using it for payments. There is still a gap between sentiment and actual usage.
So I would rather add a confirmation condition of "actual usage" to the rule, rather than just the volume of discussion. If you were to write this condition yourself, would you choose whether merchants accept Bitcoin payments, or whether they continue to use it after acceptance? Which one better filters out the noise brought by anniversary topics?#AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 A one-day drop of 10.88%, a one-month drop of 17.5%, the stock price of $504.80 directly hit the lowest point within the month — Intel's earnings report triggered both the PC slump and server supply squeeze, and AMD took the hit as well. The November 3 earnings report has the market focused on the commercialization progress of the Helios AI system, but Seeking Alpha bluntly states that most of the bull market logic is already priced in. Highlights: First, whether Helios commercialization can deliver better-than-expected order signals; second, whether the weak PC demand revealed by Intel's guidance will transmit to AMD; third, whether the valuation has become more attractive after the big drop. The bulls and bears are clearly divided: bulls say AI chip demand still exists and the pullback is an opportunity; bears say Intel has already laid out the industry's problems, and the high valuation cannot hold. My view: this drop is industry sentiment contagion, not AMD's own problem, but bottom-fishing before earnings requires courage, guidance is more important than numbers. Volatility? A 10% single-day drop says it all. Will you bet on a rebound before the earnings or wait until after November 3 to act? Not investment advice DYOR #AMD财报前瞻：HeliosAI系统商业化进展 💻 Breaking down the input by code review: Glassnode reports that the US spot Ethereum ETF has seen net outflows for 23 consecutive trading days, setting the longest record since its launch. Traditional investors who made large purchases in August and September are currently showing weaker demand.
My judgment: This is somewhat bearish for $ETH's capital flow, but directly concluding that "Ethereum is unwanted" has a logical flaw. Continuous net outflows indicate that buying support from this channel is weakening; however, consecutive days do not equal the scale of outflows. The data lacks amounts, so we cannot judge the selling pressure solely based on the record. ETFs are only part of the demand and cannot represent the entire market.
If it were me, I would adjust the evaluation logic to simultaneously consider the net outflow amount, the proportion relative to the fund size, and cross-verify with on-chain demand, rather than rushing to a conclusion. Please help me review: when judging this round of weak demand, which data would you prioritize supplementing? Are there any loopholes in my logic?Core PCE matching expectations is actually bad news: inflation remains pinned high, cooling down rate cut expectations 😮💨. The 10-to-2 vote split reveals public Fed internal divisions, with over 80% betting on a December rate hike; prolonged high interest rates have become a dull knife 🔪 hanging over risk assets. What funds fear is not a single rate hike, but the endless high rates, prompting a repricing of risk.
$BTC broke below 80,000, dropping over 5% in a day; ETF funds are stampeding out—this is not an ordinary shakeout. Heavy trapped positions above, no new macro liquidity, long-term spot holdings can be steady, but don’t rush to bottom-fish short-term 🙅. If shorting short-term, always carry a stop loss; don’t hold short positions as long-term shareholders—no stop loss is just handing chips to the market.
$ETH remains weak with sharper declines; the ecosystem lacks new narratives, and funds continue to withdraw. Don’t get itchy just because of the big drop; if Bitcoin tests new lows again, Ethereum’s catch-up drop will be even harsher—don’t catch flying knives 🩸.
$XAUT’s gold logic is stronger: high inflation, US bond yields hard to fall, compounded geopolitical disturbances, with safe-haven and central bank buying support, resilience is clearly stronger than in crypto ✨. Don’t use short-term emotions to trap long-term logic.
The rate cut trade is over; we have entered a defensive positional battle against high interest rate risks 🛡️.Suddenly, 500 million XRP appeared on the table, valued at about 626 million USD. Many people's first reaction upon seeing the word "unlock" is to panic sell, but this matter needs to be analyzed carefully.
First, look at the chips. 500 million tokens, 626 million USD, this is not a small amount. It's equivalent to releasing a batch of coins outside the original pool that can turn into sell orders at any time. The quantity itself is fixed; the uncertainty lies in when they will move.
Next, consider the mechanism. Unlocking does not equal selling; it only turns locked coins into "movable" coins. What really determines the price is where these coins go next: into exchanges, into market makers' inventories, or remain in cold wallets. So what we often see is not a crash on the day of unlocking, but sporadic, unclear sources of selling pressure appearing on the order book over time.
Then there's the time difference. Unlocking is an instantaneous action; digestion is a slow process. The market's biggest fear is never the known 500 million coins, but whether they will be sold all at once on the same day. This uncertainty usually weighs on the price more than the selling pressure itself.
My judgment is: short-term bearish, but no need to panic. For a coin with the scale of $XRP, 500 million won't crash the market all at once; it's more likely to grind downward gradually. The real observation point is not today, but whether the exchange balances rise significantly in the next few days.
Here's a question for you: if most of these coins eventually return to cold wallets, then does this "negative" event actually become a window for others to buy at a low price?🔥 The better SNDK's earnings report looks, the more bearish I become! Can AI storage continue to celebrate?
This time, I choose to stand against the market and bet on a short-term pullback for SNDK.
🔵 Performance: Revenue grew 378% year-over-year, with strong results and future guidance. AI storage demand remains hot, but the problem is that these positives may have already been priced into the stock.
🔴 Expectation fulfillment: When everyone expects an outperform, simply having excellent results may no longer be enough. If future guidance does not exceed expectations again, it is easy for positive news to be taken as a sell signal.
🟡 Industry cycle: The storage industry is cyclical. Currently, more attention should be paid to supply expansion, product prices, and future orders, not just single-quarter profits.
🟢 Market sentiment: AI hardware sectors like optical communication and storage are pulling back simultaneously, and sector funds are starting to diverge. For SNDK to strengthen independently, stronger capital support is needed.
My judgment: I am more cautious about the risk of profit-taking at high levels in the short term, but this does not mean I am bearish on the long-term development of AI storage.
⚠️ Risk reminder: A good earnings report does not guarantee a stock price increase, and positive news being realized does not necessarily mean a drop. Contrarian trading also requires strict stop-loss discipline!
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 $BTC $ETH $HYPE Let's first calculate the cost of capital: PT market liquidity has dried up, and Morpho's borrowing rate has risen to about 40%; if the strategy's returns can't cover the borrowing costs, then no matter how good the book profits look, it's all for nothing. A market supported by reUSD saw available liquidity exhausted within two hours. As of October 31, the interest rates in four tracked markets have fallen back to about 9% to 13%.
I think this is somewhat bearish for PT strategies that rely on borrowing. The key issue isn't how high the interest rates spike, but whether the capital can keep circulating. Liquidity shortages push up borrowing costs and squeeze profit margins; although rates have fallen, you can't judge liquidity recovery solely based on this—cheap borrowing and actually being able to borrow are two different things.
My choice is still to play it safe: first look at available liquidity, then calculate the interest spread, and don't rush to treat the decline as an opportunity. Facing this kind of PT lending market, would you play it safe and wait for liquidity to recover, or are you willing to take the risk of interest rates jumping up again?SKHY Today's key focus isn't the price, but the volume bar at 06:00.
Throughout the weekend, it hovered between 149.14 and 150.93, a range of 1.79, fluctuating 1.2% — a price in a vacuum, not forming a pattern.
But at 06:00, a volume of 2,858 contracts (compared to 195 the previous hour and 202 the hour before, more than tenfold) surged to 150.59, closing at 149.98, 0.05 lower than the open.
No one was scrambling to accumulate in the vacuum; this spike tested above 150.6, then was pushed back — there were more sell orders above than expected.
Current price is 149.77, with MA20 at 150.04 pressing down by 0.27.
The real pricing starts at the 21:30 open; orders now are queued:
Close above 150.93 with volume (≥3000) → pull back to 150.5~150.7 to go long, stop loss at 149.80, target 152.50, risk-reward 2.4.
Close below 149.14 with volume (≥3000) → rebound to 149.5~149.7 to go short, stop loss at 150.30, target 147.35, risk-reward 3.2.
No trades between 149.14 and 150.93; 1.79 range is too tight for stop loss.
$SKHY
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk) #Federal Reserve officials signal rate hikes, December expectations still divided
Brother Maji's $ETH long positions were all liquidated, and he added funds to open more longs.
His $ETH longs were fully liquidated yesterday due to the drop caused by the Bn hack.
Yesterday afternoon, he deposited 250,000 USDC to continue going long, and currently has long positions worth $58.8 million, including ETH, HYPE, and BTC.
As usual, the leverage is quite high, so the liquidation price for this ETH position is very close: at $2161, just $86 away from the current price.
He has been heavily betting on Hyperliquid (hype) for nearly a year and a half, with a trading volume reaching $15.86 billion. He has lost a total of $37.05 million. #IREN矿企转型AI云服务，GPU交付进展待揭晓
Brothers, IREN is about to submit its report. The real game here isn't the orders, but whether those orders can turn into cash flow without relying on additional issuance.
Clear card: The first 50MW liquid-cooled cluster of Microsoft's $9.7 billion order has been delivered, AI cloud revenue has surpassed mining for the first time, earning the "face" of the transformation.
Hidden card in financing: FY27 capital expenditure is as high as $25-30 billion. The $3.6 billion GPU financing for the Microsoft project has achieved investment grade, but how to fill the huge remaining gap? The stock price has retreated 68% from its peak, and the market is pricing in "dilution from additional issuance."
Market: Bitcoin current price about 77,400, support at 76,500, resistance at 78,000.
Operation: If holding a position, stop loss strictly below 76,000; if no position, wait for a pullback to 76,500 with reduced volume and stabilization before watching.
Old Mo says: Delivery only proves the ability to "build," not the ability to "build without dilution." After the financial report, focus on financing details, it's more useful than focusing on revenue! $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC smashed through the 80,000 mark, dipping as low as around 77,000, down about 4% intraday; $ETH lost the 2250 level; $SOL was pressed down to 95.📉 A few days ago, some people asked me: with the stock market hitting new highs and the crypto market sideways, is a catch-up rally coming? My answer remains the same: don’t mistake sideways movement for a buildup.😅
Once this AI trading cycle turns, crypto is no longer a “safe haven” but the peripheral nerve of risk assets. Tech stocks pull back, the semiconductor index weakens, and crypto leverage amplifies volatility first. The so-called “decoupling” and “digital gold” are mostly illusions during times of ample liquidity; when deleveraging really happens, it’s not narratives that matter, but whose collateral can withstand the pressure better.🧊
The question now isn’t "dare to buy the dip," but "is the liquidity still retreating?"💧 Quick hands might catch a rebound, but slow hands are better off waiting for sentiment and leverage to be fully cleansed. Will you catch the knife on the left side, or wait for confirmation on the right?🤔Star Xu openly said something that many people find awkward to hear: Don't use security as a marketing gimmick.
From Bybit and Bitget to this recent hot wallet breach, the problem often isn't the private keys themselves, but the permissions and operational access. What he wants is that during those critical minutes of an incident, teams can notify each other and jointly monitor suspicious addresses, rather than each writing their own PR statements.
Do you trust slogans like "We've never been hacked," or do you trust a system that can freeze dirty money through collaboration? Moscow Exchange has set the opening day as December 1: BTC, ETH, USDT will enter the stock market trading session, Moscow time approximately 6:50 to 23:50, with order book plus swaps, using the existing stock market infrastructure. Sales Director Boris Blokhin said this to reporters at the SmartLab meeting on October 31, and the original text was issued by RIA Novosti. Non-qualified investors have an annual limit of 300,000 rubles, with custody handled through digital depository. CoinGecko spot BTC is about $77,450 (snapshot around 08:06 Beijing time).
This is more like a small window opened by the domestic regulatory channel, not a sudden increase in global buying demand. The limit is roughly equivalent to about three thousand dollars, and self-custody wallets are not allowed to be mentioned. Opponents would say: under the sanctions environment, this local pilot has limited impact on on-chain circulation and USD pricing.
If after one week from the opening on December 1, verifiable order book depth cannot be delivered, or if the opening day is postponed again, then treat this as a policy progress indicator rather than new external buying demand already in place.
$BTC
#Bitcoin #MoscowExchangeTRX dropped nearly 10% in 24 hours, but the perpetual negative funding rate has already retreated from extreme levels.
OKEx spot at 08:08 is about 0.30286, down 9.6% in 24 hours, with a low of 0.30006 and a trading volume of approximately $59.85 million. The perpetual funding rate settled at -0.8522% on October 30 at 08:00, and has narrowed to -0.1091% today at 08:00. The negative funding rate still exists, meaning this round of shorts still need to pay longs.
My judgment is that the imbalance on the contract side has eased somewhat, but the spot price is still less than 1% above the 24-hour low. The funding rate's retreat cannot prove that the price has stopped falling; rushing to guess a rebound just because shorts pay less per contract unit easily overlooks this point.
I am more focused on the price near 0.30006 and the next funding rate settlement. If the price breaks the low again and the negative funding rate expands again, the judgment of easing must be withdrawn.
$TRX $ZEC ZEC This chart is quite interesting.
The bears really dug their own hole this time. A whale opened short positions worth over 200 million, with a position almost three times that of the bulls.
The average entry price was at 1261. Now that the price has risen, these big players are collectively facing unrealized losses.
The bears are now holding on stubbornly. As long as the bulls push the price up further to trigger forced liquidations, it could quickly turn into a stampede short squeeze.
This kind of setup doesn't need any positive news to rally; it's all bears losing money and fueling the move.
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇$LSK LSK is really ruthless this time, cutting the total supply from 400 million to 300 million, slashing a quarter in one move.
Even the DAO has exited, which means the biggest dumping machine overhead has been directly unplugged.
Take a look at the contract order book, there are still a bunch of shorts holding on with deeply negative fees, stubbornly resisting.
The spot circulating supply has sharply dropped, yet the shorts have to pay interest every day to hold their positions. When these people lose enough to hit stop-loss and are forced to liquidate in a stampede, all the upward momentum will be fuel they provide.
#LSK
$LSK
👇$LSK LSK directly slashed a quarter of the total supply, completely clearing the historical selling pressure this time.
All cards are on the table, and the most surreal thing is that the bears in the market are still stubborn. Look at Binance's perpetual contracts, with an annualized negative interest rate of 1669%, yet they still hold short positions stubbornly, ranking first on the crowded list.
The spot price stubbornly refuses to drop, and the bears bleed money every day. In this extreme negative fee rate scenario, the top is full of fragile clearing accounts that can break with just a poke. With a little buying pressure, the short squeeze liquidation stampede becomes ready-made fuel for a rally.
#LSK
$LSK
👇November 3rd: The biggest variable this week is not the capital flow
The Federal Reserve held steady on October 28th at 3.75%–4%, but the vote was 10:2, with two wanting a rate hike; after the meeting, the pricing for a 25bp hike in December briefly surged to 85%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield also broke 5%.
Then on November 3rd, the midterm elections. Bloomberg's numbers are very interesting:
Republicans hold both chambers → BTC year-end median 90,800
Democrats take both chambers → 76,450
Split control → 84,100
Kalshi shows Democrats have a 91% chance to control the House and 64% to control the Senate. Which is the market pricing in? You can tell by the premium; it’s already pricing in the worse scenario.
I won’t open new positions before the election. Volatility will return, but the direction is given by the event, not my guess. Three price levels are more useful than my single candlestick
Bitwise's framework is now the most practical:
82,000: The average cost zone for ETF investors, with dense trapped positions above, acting as resistance
77,600: True Market Mean, the overall breakeven line for capital gains and losses
74,800: The short-term holder cost baseline; breaking below this triggers underwater panic
Glassnode adds: About 4 million BTC are cost-stacked between 85,000–118,000, all representing sell pressure from unlocking positions. So if 85,000 is not reclaimed, talking about a reversal is premature.The basis dropped to 5%, and the arbitrage funds left
The annualized basis of CME Bitcoin futures for near and far months dropped to 5.11% on October 28 (it was 10.48% the previous day). A year ago, this level was 17%.
The basis is the "buy spot + short futures" batch of quant money's meal ticket. When the meal ticket is not enough to cover funding and fees, they close positions and leave — and this portion of funds used to be the most stable spot buyers outside of ETFs.
CME open interest fell from above 21 billion to below 10 billion, while Binance remained steady around 11 billion. The institutional spot vacuum cleaner has been turned off.Numb
Really numb!
Institutions' ETFs are frantically accumulating, while we are frantically cutting losses.
The panic index has dropped to 30, with over a billion liquidations across the network, all from long positions cutting losses at the bottom.
But guess what the institutions are doing?
BTC ETFs had a net inflow of $135 million in one day, quietly taking over 1,600 BTC.
And what about ETH ETFs? In October, they cumulatively withdrew nearly $1.32 billion, setting a historical record.
Got it?
Institutions are bottom-fishing BTC and are frantically abandoning ETH.
Meanwhile, we retail investors are still foolishly waiting for Ethereum to return to 3000, still feeling sorry for those spot holdings that have crashed badly.
Yesterday, a huge whale forcefully cut 36,000 ETH long positions, losing $38 million in one go just to avoid being completely liquidated.
They lost $38 million, accepted it, and ran.
What about you? You lost a few thousand USDT and are still asking in the group chat, "Can I hold on to die?"
This is the most disgusting part of this market:
Smart money has long chosen the direction, even at the cost of cutting losses to survive;
While retail investors are still holding onto those bloodied chips, fantasizing about miracles.
Stop asking where the bottom is.
Institutions won’t pump the price unless they’ve cleaned out your ETH.
Did you cut losses today?
Or are you still waiting for that nonexistent "big rebound"?
Be honest in the comments.
The above is just my personal review and does not constitute any trading advice.
$BTC $ETH Options Market: $110K Gamma Cliff
On October 30, a wave of $11 billion worth of Bitcoin options expired, accounting for about one-third of Deribit's open interest. 70% of the Gamma in this batch is concentrated in the $75K–$82K range.
What does this mean? Market makers' hedging positions will amplify volatility within this range: if it breaks down, they sell along; if it goes up, they buy along. $80K is not support, it's a spring.
Looking at the positions: the batch expiring on October 31 has a Put/Call ratio of 1.22, with the maximum pain point at $79K; the most active are the November 13 $74K Put and the November 1 $75K Put. Funds are buying insurance, not betting on a rise. The "ammo" in exchanges is running low
Another overlooked line: exchange stablecoin reserves.
According to CryptoQuant, the balance of ERC-20 stablecoins on exchanges has dropped to 60.62 billion, at the 1st percentile historically — down from about 80 billion at the start of the year. Binance alone fell from 43.2 billion to 41.1 billion, losing 6.3 billion since April.
This is the "ammo depot" ready to enter the market at any time. Ammo is shrinking; prices can still hold sideways not because of strong buying, but because sellers are also exhausted.
Even more interesting is USDT: in mid-October, it shrank nearly 1 billion in market value over 5 days. From early July to October 1, 19 platforms saw a net withdrawal of 4.6 billion USDT balances, only partially offset by 1.9 billion replenished by USDC/RLUSD. This is not a token swap, but an exit from the market.BTC today (November 1) fluctuated narrowly around 77,400–77,700 USD, with a slight 24-hour increase of about 0.5%–1%, ranging approximately 76,300–77,800 USD. This represents stabilization at a low level after a sharp drop, rather than a trend reversal.
The background involves multiple negative factors stacking up: On October 29, Binance disclosed a security incident involving about 6.3 billion USD, the largest in crypto history, triggering concentrated leverage liquidation; on October 30, about 11 billion USD worth of BTC options expired, amplifying volatility. In the past 24 hours, about 427 million USD worth of liquidations occurred across the network, with longs accounting for over 70%, and BTC single-asset liquidations about 142 million USD, indicating passive leverage liquidation rather than active selling.
The funding side remains cautious: On October 30, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 643 million USD, the largest single-day outflow since June, with BlackRock's IBIT alone seeing 234 million USD outflow; for the entire October, ETFs turned to a net outflow of about 516 million USD. The Fear & Greed Index is around 30, in the "Fear" zone, compared to 51 a week ago. BTC dropped about 3.9% in the past 7 days and about 8.4% in the past 30 days, with the mid-term structure still weak.
Key levels: Support at 77,000 / 76,300 / 75,000; resistance at 79,300 / 81,400–82,000; only a firm break above 82,000 can be considered a recovery.Coinbase Premium: Hasn't turned positive throughout October
This is what I care about the most.
Coinbase–Binance Bitcoin premium index, October 24th −0.1353%, has been negative for 31 consecutive days; October 25th −0.1259%, the 33rd day; the monthly average −0.093%, three times that of September, and on October 24th it once dropped to −0.146%, the deepest since June.
To translate: The price Americans are willing to pay has consistently been lower than that of overseas retail investors. On the Coinbase side are institutions, advisors, and authorized ETF participants; on the Binance side are global retail investors. The domestic US spot buying has not caught a breath all month.
If the premium doesn't turn positive, I won't add a satoshi to spot.ETH ETF: Bleeding for 5 consecutive weeks, this is no longer a correction
ETH is even colder here.
October 30 −155.7 million, net outflow for the 5th consecutive day; nearly 431 million in the past 5 days, nearly 1.6 billion in the past 30 days. The total monthly outflow has surged to over 1.32 billion, just less than 100 million short of the single-month record of 1.42 billion set in November 2025.
Breaking it down more clearly: ETHA alone ran nearly 500 million from October 26–30, and the inflow to FETH is nowhere near enough to fill that. IBIT can't stand alone; this time the vote was 12:0 against.
The rebound on October 27 looked impressive: +176 million, with IBIT taking 151.5 million alone, accounting for 86%, FBTC added 24.5 million, and the remaining 10 products all had zero.
This kind of "one company carrying the load" inflow is most feared not for a drop, but for the lack of a second company to follow.
Comparing to the 30th: all 12 products had negative net flows, even BTCW, usually used for hedging, was redeemed. The same batch of money only bought IBIT when entering, but sold off the entire market when exiting — indicating a reduction in risk exposure, not a product switch.A week wasted: bought in over 4 days, then sold out in 1 day
Looking at the last week of October in detail:
26th +110.3 million, 27th +176 million, 28th +137.3 million, 29th +17.1 million — four consecutive days of net inflow, totaling 440.7 million.
Then on the 30th, in just one day: −643.2 million. According to SoSoValue metrics, none of the 12 products had net inflow; IBIT −234 million, FBTC −201 million, ARKB −130 million.
What was accumulated over four days was lost 1.46 times in one day. This isn’t "profit-taking," it’s a collective withdrawal confirming the failure of a quick rebound.
My first reaction as a spot trader: don’t catch that needle. Wait until it swallows the bearish candle on the 30th before discussing the trend.Let me share something I only recently realized: why do our positions here shake when there's a lawsuit in the US?
Because "who exactly regulates crypto derivatives" hasn't been firmly decided. The federal CFTC claims exclusive jurisdiction, but several states question why it should be them. Now the CFTC is giving up and plans to take it to the Supreme Court, arguing that state-level actions harm market integrity.
Sounds distant, but in plain terms: the more chaotic the rules, the fewer market makers dare to participate, the wider the spreads, and the easier it is to trigger stop losses. When $BTC drops with a long lower wick, all the stop losses hit are from small positions.
Before the ruling comes out, don't max out your leverage. Hold onto your $ETH, don't increase your bets based on rumors. "Bottom Grinding Diary: Why Does the Rebound Always Fall Short?"
The crypto market is really a bit "low on power" ⚡(｡•́︿•̀｡). After Bitcoin and Ethereum dropped, they didn’t rebound properly. The reason isn’t a single negative factor but a combination of macro headwinds and capital outflows.
The Federal Reserve’s tone is hawkish, pushing back the timing of rate cuts. Long-term US Treasury yields are rising, naturally suppressing valuations of volatile assets like crypto; when tech stocks weaken, market risk appetite drops another notch (＞﹏＜). On the other hand, spot ETFs continue to see net outflows, with no sign of institutional incremental buying, leaving no hands to support the bottom.
After prices break key support levels, leveraged longs are forcefully liquidated in a chain reaction, intensifying selling pressure; meanwhile, trapped positions above are dense, so every small rebound easily hits sell-to-break-even orders and gets pushed back down (´･_･`). Sentiment is cautious, and bottom-fishing funds only dare to watch.
ETH is even more volatile and usually under more pressure than BTC. In the short term, it’s highly likely to continue grinding sideways at the bottom. The focus is on US Treasury yields and ETF capital flows ( •̀ ω •́ )✧.
$BTC $ETH
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 Brothers, SNDK's earnings report exploded but the stock dropped 13%, is the 1152 level panic or an overreaction?
$SNDK $1,152
SNDK closed down sharply by 13.47% to 1150.89 on Friday, with an intraday low of 1115.16. From the June peak of 2354, the pullback has exceeded 50%.
The earnings numbers are crushing. Q1 revenue was 11.03 billion, a year-over-year surge of 378%, adjusted EPS 49.51, both beating expectations. Data center revenue was 4.8 billion, nearly 17 times higher year-over-year. Gross margin was 85.1%, and the company also announced an 8-for-1 stock split effective November 19.
But the market voted with its feet, and the reasons lie in two details. First, Edge business revenue was 5.83 billion, below analysts' expected 6.07 billion. Second, consumer revenue dropped 29% quarter-over-quarter to 397 million; aside from data center, other businesses are shrinking.
Analysts' target prices are still lofty. Among 25 covering analysts, most recommend buy, with an average target price of $2105, implying about 83% upside. Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its target to $2200 but maintained a buy rating.
Technically, 1115 was Friday's intraday low and is a key short-term level to watch.
Let's discuss in the comments: the earnings report was explosive but the stock price halved, is this an overreaction?👇
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧
#闪迪业绩超预期并宣布拆股，股价跌逾13% There is something most people will scroll past, but it could determine the direction of the US derivatives market for the next six months: the CFTC is preparing to take the dispute over derivatives jurisdiction to the Supreme Court.
The background is not complicated. US derivatives trading has long been exclusively regulated by the CFTC under a unified federal framework. Now some states do not recognize this arrangement and want to regulate under their own state laws. Michael Selig put it bluntly: challenges at the state level threaten market integrity.
What the market fears most is never strictness, but disorder. For the same contract, if the federal government says yes but a certain state says no, exchanges will face dozens of incompatible rule sets, and compliance costs will ultimately be passed on to spreads and funding rates. Once liquidity is fragmented, everyone holding positions gets hurt.
Therefore, the CFTC is proactively escalating the issue, essentially aiming to use a lawsuit to eliminate uncertainty. Rules remain unchanged before the ruling, and exchanges operate as usual; after the ruling, either there will be a nationwide set of rules or each state will issue its own licenses. The former is a prerequisite for crypto derivatives to be accepted by mainstream capital, while the latter would turn the US market into a patchwork.
In the short term, this is just another regulatory news item. In the medium term, it will determine the shape of the US derivatives market in the coming years. The institutional holding structure of $BTC and the depth of $ETH options will ultimately follow this set of rules.
One question remains: if the states win, will crypto derivatives become a business of applying for licenses state by state? At that time, the US will no longer be one market, but fifty.Profits look great, but the pullback is more real: Don't just watch the hype in the Strategy earnings report (￣▽￣)
Strategy's Q3 net profit hit a new single-quarter high, with digital asset income definitely stealing the spotlight. But under the new FASB rules, BTC is accounted for at fair value, and with the Q3 coin price still above 85,000, this profit looks more like "valuation-based" rather than "realized from selling coins" (๑•́ ₃ •̀๑).
The key is the timing difference: The report covers Q3, but BTC has now slipped to around 77,000. If the price doesn't quickly recover, Q4 could very likely record a large paper loss. Paper wealth is fragile and can vanish with a breeze (｡•́︿•̀｡).
The actions are more worth watching: In Q3, only 334 BTC were added, but nearly 200 million was spent on repurchasing preferred shares. Previously, debt was issued to buy coins; now, debt is being repaid to reduce leverage. Management clearly knows that the 12% fixed dividend is painful when coin prices fall (•̀ᴗ•́)و.
The market isn't cooperating either: BTC is around 77,100, with resistance at 78,000 above and support at 76,500 below. The earnings report can't save current liquidity (￣▽￣).
Practical moves: Those holding positions should set risk control lines below 76,000; those without positions shouldn't rush to bottom-fish—wait for volume to shrink and stabilize near 76,500 before considering. Past profits are not a safety net now; don't bet on them as the current bottom (￣▽￣)ノ
$BTC
#StrategyQ3净利润创单季新高，数字资产收益贡献显著 Crypto markets are drifting into the weekend without a crash — and without any appetite to attack. That combination is more revealing than a sharp selloff. Latest PMI data showed manufacturing at 49.3%, back in contraction territory, with demand-side benefits exhausted and sentiment broadly cautious. Only high-end manufacturing held a slight expansion, a clear structural split. That macro softness is now meeting a market already running on empty. The contradiction sits at the center of the tape:Hedge funds have also started to protect profits and year-end bonuses.
According to Morgan Stanley data, hedge funds have cumulatively reduced active positions by about 8%, marking the largest de-grossing (reducing total position exposure) since 2016, directly piercing through the lows of the past decade.
Goldman Sachs data shows that TMT hedge funds lost about 12% in October, with losses mainly concentrated in crowded tech stocks.
The recent sharp sell-off over the past week or two is likely driven by this round of concentrated position reductions. To preserve profits from the first half of the year, funds are selling longs, covering shorts, and simultaneously reducing total position exposure. After all, stocks like Intel, with a market cap in the hundreds of billions, can drop 30% in a single day, which has scared everyone a bit.
The more tech stocks fall, the greater the volatility and risk control pressure, triggering more position reductions, ultimately forming a chain reaction stampede that amplifies the declines of crowded names like Amazon, Google, and Intel $AMZN $GOOGL $INTC 📌10.30 Crash Day｜Cathie Wood vs White-Haired Serenity Thought Comparison
Both faced tech stock sell-offs, but two trading systems are completely different:
✅Cathie Wood (ARK): Diversified innovation across multiple sectors
Realized profits in pharmaceuticals, increased positions in gene sequencing and crypto finance;
Logic: Rebalance after a big drop, layout multiple disruptive technology sectors, not relying on a single market.
On the day ARKG fell nearly 7%, volatility came from a basket of highly elastic growth stocks.
✅White-Haired Serenity: Highly concentrated bet on AI upstream
Core heavy position in AAOI optical modules, supported by Micron, LITE, AXT, RDDT and other computing power supply chains;
Logic: Long-term capacity shortage, short-term valuation cuts ≠ fundamentals worsening, big drop seen as a bottom-fishing window.
Cost: AAOI dropped 12.8% in one day, monthly drawdown of 13.59 million, concentrated holdings have very strong drawdown explosiveness.
💡Core divergence:
Cathie Wood bets on multiple technological revolutions, diversifying to prevent collapse of a single sector;
Serenity bets on AI computing power cycle supply-demand mismatch, focusing on upstream bottleneck alpha.
⚠️Note: For review only, not investment advice #美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 #加密行业协同守护资产安全 #BTC持续震荡，后续走势受多重因素影响 $ZEC The current market pricing is overwhelmingly betting on the Democrats sweeping both chambers, with a 70% probability almost fully priced in. This highly consistent consensus itself is the biggest source of risk.
If the Democrats do take both chambers, it would be a positive realization. The script of buying the rumor and selling the fact is likely to replay — funds have already positioned ahead of the result, and after the event, there will be a lack of new buying momentum to follow through. The tech and storage sectors are prone to spike and then fall back, even experiencing sharp needle-like drops. This pattern is common in the crypto market; the fuller the expectation, the heavier the selling pressure after realization.
But if the result deviates from the mainstream expectation, for example, if the Republicans take one chamber, that would be a busted expectation. The current pricing is based on the assumption of a Democratic sweep; once this premise is broken, funds will need to reprice policy paths, regulatory expectations, and fiscal directions, causing very volatile swings. The crypto market is especially sensitive to political winds, and marginal changes in regulatory attitudes can trigger chain reactions.
My view is: don’t bet on the outcome, bet on the volatility. In any scenario, short-term volatility will increase. Rather than betting on direction, it’s better to control position size, keep sufficient margin, and wait for the dust to settle before making trend judgments. The most dangerous moment in the market is often not the news itself, but when everyone thinks they already know the answer.
$BTC $ETH $LIT Never short it with high leverage, or you'll just be fuel; the trading volume is all wash trading.The liquidations in the past 12 hours are not large, but the structures of BTC, ETH, and SOL are completely different. The market has shifted from a one-sided long squeeze to a back-and-forth clearing between longs and shorts.
The total market liquidation is $25.99 million, with longs at $13.65 million and shorts at $12.35 million, nearly a 50/50 split. Compared to $126.94 million in the past 24 hours, this indicates that the concentrated deleveraging phase has slowed down, but it does not mean the risk is over.
BTC liquidations amount to $2.77 million, with shorts at $2.16 million and longs at $606,000, shorts accounting for about 78%. Those chasing shorts at low levels are starting to lose, and there is short-term momentum for a rebound. However, until $78,000 is firmly held, it can only be seen as an oversold correction.
ETH liquidations total $2.78 million, with shorts reaching $2.49 million and longs only $292,000. Nearly 90% are shorts, indicating that ETH's rebound has inflicted the most damage on the bears. As long as $2,200 holds, it may still test $2,280–$2,300 later, but it is not suitable to chase the rally before a breakout.
SOL liquidations are $322,000, with longs at $166,700 and shorts at $155,300, almost evenly matched. The current $94 is short-term support, and $100 remains the main resistance.
Chasing shorts now is uncomfortable, but the reversal is not confirmed either. With low liquidity over the weekend, double-sided liquidation is most likely. Light positions and waiting for direction are safer than forcing bets.The truth about "zero downtime": Core's underlying consensus remains intact, but the "money printer" once went out of control—Why can't BTC hash power protect the code?
The recent validator reward vulnerability incident in Core is easily misunderstood: the network continuously produced blocks, and the underlying Satoshi Plus consensus chain was not broken, ultimately achieving zero downtime during the founding team's handover phase. This proves that the block production layer, which selects validators weighted by Bitcoin hash power, can operate smoothly; however, the reward code that determines the CORE token release rules had a logical flaw, equivalent to the on-chain "money printer" briefly going out of control. Approximately 255 million future block rewards were prematurely released. After a hard fork reclaimed 186 million tokens, about 69 million had already flowed into external wallets and cannot be recovered. This is the key boundary of BTC hash power protection: Bitcoin miners' hash power serves to participate in scoring validator election weights to decide who can become block-producing nodes, ensuring the network is difficult for malicious nodes to arbitrarily tamper with transaction history; but miners themselves do not verify Core's internal token reward distribution logic. BTC hash power can only solve "who can produce blocks" but cannot audit the business code rules of "how many CORE rewards should be issued after block production." Protocol-level reward logic bugs are beyond the protective scope of Bitcoin hash power. The project's subsequent completion of the founding contributors' resignation and the handover of block production rights to 31 independent validators addresses the block production operator issue but cannot automatically fix the design shortcomings of the protocol incentive code. BTC hash power endorsement can raise the threshold for validator misconduct Institutional funds' "counterattack": ETF turning positive, is it a frontrunner move or a bull trap?
ETF data for October 21 has been released, truly eye-catching. Just a few days ago, there was a frantic retreat, but today $BTC (net inflow of 40.8 million), $ETH (29.4 million), and $SOL suddenly synchronized into inflows. Combined with the current high-level market oscillation, this wave of capital return is quite meaningful.
Objectively looking at this data set:
$BTC has a net inflow of 513 million over the past 7 days, showing a clear improvement in capital support, but psychological resistance levels above (such as around 85,000) still exist, and breaking through requires sustained incremental inflows.
$ETH's single-day inflow of 29.4 million ended the consecutive decline, but there is still a net outflow of 680 million over 30 days, indicating that the mid-term trapped positions are still being digested, and the support test near 2,500 has just begun.
$SOL is similar, turning positive in a single day but with a small volume; if there is not enough turnover around the resistance zone near 110, it can easily become a short-term capital withdrawal point.
The core suspense now is the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on October 28. Before the macro shoe drops, institutions may be making short-term defensive replenishments. The reference weight of single-day ETF data should be discounted; sustainability is the hard truth.
How many days do you think this capital return can last?
For market record only, not investment advice.
#英特尔Q4指引不及预期，股价暴跌近30%
#加密行业协同守护资产安全
#美联储官员释放加息信号，12月预期仍存分歧 Back then, when Ethereum faced a delisting crisis, could CORE become the second Ethereum?
First, let's clarify the facts: In the 2016 The DAO hacker incident, the tokens facing delisting were the application-layer DAO tokens; the underlying ETH never faced a delisting crisis on mainstream exchanges. The root of the crisis was solely the vulnerability in The DAO contract. Ethereum's underlying consensus remained intact. The hard fork decision was the result of multi-party negotiations among miners, nodes, and token holders. The vast majority of computing power and developers chose the main chain. The ecosystem base was sufficiently diverse, allowing it to smoothly navigate the split turmoil. In contrast, the nature of Core's current turmoil is completely different: it exposed a consensus-layer vulnerability in the validator reward mechanism, resulting in about 69 million CORE tokens being prematurely released and unrecoverable. South Korea's Bithumb officially announced the delisting of the CORE native token citing risks in the underlying mechanism. Subsequently, the project launched a zero-downtime handover of founding contributors stepping down and block production rights transferring to 31 validators. However, the scope of the handover mainly covers block production operations; underlying code iteration and treasury governance still bear the influence of the core team. The transparency of the staking weight distribution behind the 31 validator seats is insufficient. The two projects are at clearly different stages with different ecosystem depth: when Ethereum faced the fork crisis, it had already gathered global developers continuously deploying applications; although Core emphasizes the BTCFi narrative, its on-chain ecosystem self-circulation capability has not yet fully matured. Ethereum survived primarily because the crisis was resolved through collective decision-making by diverse participants across the entire network; Core's current governance transformation is more of an organizational restructuring after the crisis and has yet to undergo an independent crisis test away from the core team.#亚马逊Q3营收略逊预期，AWS增速达近五年最快水平 Three types of tokens, can the driving logic be fulfilled?
WLD at 0.42 maintains user growth, but the price has not followed upward, with regulatory risks suppressing valuation. Supporters anchor on the real user scale, while skeptics focus on the subsequent implementation of privacy policies.
LAB at 0.045 experiences volatility driven by project buyback news, but large transfers from team-related addresses weaken the positive impact; SLX at 0.048 is tied to wafer lease cash flow, showing resilience when the chip sector declines.
The sustainability of buybacks, regulatory statements, and lease fulfillment are the verification variables for the three logics respectively.
Open your position list and see where you set the stop-loss for this position.
$WLD $LAB $SLX $BTC $ETH $SOL $OKX $DOGE $XRP $TONI saw a pretty magical number: in the past 30 days, 7,042 BTC flowed into exchanges. My first reaction was, it's over, everyone is preparing to dump.
But after breaking it down, it's the opposite. Coinbase Pro saw an outflow of 8,359 BTC; Bybit and Bitfinex each received nearly 7,000 BTC.
So it's not that everyone is selling, they just switched venues. Those who really wanted to leave have already left; this batch of people just want to have coins on hand, ready to act anytime. $BTC will probably stay like this in the short term.In the past 30 days, exchange wallets have cumulatively received 7,042 BTC. The number becomes interesting when broken down—two are inflows, one is an outflow.
The outflow is from Coinbase Pro, which sent out 8,359 BTC in 30 days and now holds 832,900 BTC. The inflows are to Bybit and Bitfinex, with 6,948 BTC and 6,906 BTC respectively, bringing their balances to 53,100 BTC and 430,300 BTC. During the same period, the total balance of exchange wallets is 2,461,200 BTC.
Coinbase Pro is a compliant custody channel commonly used by institutional and regulated funds, while Bybit and Bitfinex lean more towards trading and leverage. Money is moving from a place where it is stored to two places where it can be readily used, usually not for long-term holding.
Therefore, the 7,042 BTC should not be read as new buying pressure; it looks more like inventory relocation. After moving to places where leverage can be opened, it is not good news for $BTC in the short term: more sellable supply has appeared. But don’t rush to interpret this as a crash—the total supply of 2,461,200 BTC has not been drained, only redistributed.
What’s really worth watching is the next week. If Bybit and Bitfinex continue to accumulate while Coinbase Pro keeps sending out, that is a unified preparation to sell; conversely, if Coinbase Pro starts to flow back in, it means institutions are rebuilding positions on the other side. The same data set, two opposite interpretations. Which one do you bet on? Binance is still patching the 6.3 billion yuan hole from the hack, but the market has already started switching cards.
The fear and greed index has been stuck at 30 for two days, with liquidations exceeding 1.1 billion, mostly long positions.
But the ETF side is not worried at all; $BTC spot funds saw a net inflow of 135 million during the same period, while $ETH funds are flowing out.
The money hasn't left, it's just moved from the second coin to the big coin.
More subtly, in the early morning liquidation wave, shorts actually lost more than 60%, with leveraged longs bleeding first and shorts taking hits afterward.
$SOL is the worst hit, with whales dumping over one million tokens in five days, turning the $100 iron bottom into a ceiling.
The stock market is almost the same story; AI hardware has dropped at least 30% monthly, while Hong Kong stocks have become a safe haven.
The real switch is coming on January 3rd midterm elections; regulatory direction will have a much bigger impact than the hacker incident.
Don't rush to chase the rebound; first see who is switching positions and who is holding firm.