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Brothers, if you can hear me, then run as fast as you can, don't look back. Go check how many retail investors are crazily going long right now.
This market is basically a one-sided massacre, but the most surreal thing is that the ground is soaked in blood, yet there are still people down there catching it with basins.
$ETH crashed like a waterfall from 2578 straight down to 2171.
A volume surge in a sharp drop, what does that mean?
It means big money is fleeing wildly!
Now it bounced back to 2226, looks like there's support, but take a close look at that pitiful trading volume below.
Is this a rebound?
The main players are deliberately hitting the brakes to trick you retail investors who see a 400-dollar drop and want to jump in for a rebound.
You think the bigger the drop, the bottom is?
In this meat grinder, as long as retail investors keep crazily going long, the bottom is bottomless.
Because the main players want to get low-priced chips, they must blow out and sweep clean all you bulls before they will pump!
I have a high-position short at 2671, and the profit has already reached +1665%.
Stop throwing your hard-earned money into the pit.
The script is very clear now:
This volume-less rebound is a shorting opportunity.
If it can hold firm in the 2250 - 2280 range, directly add to your short positions.
Looking down, as long as today's low of 2171 is broken, that will trigger a real chain of forced liquidations and a massive stampede, directly targeting 2100.
$BTC
$ZEC #加密行业协同守护资产安全 Deleveraging is nearing its end, with a $3.2 billion sword hanging overhead waiting to be resolved
BTC around 77,280, ETH around 2,229. Fear and Greed Index at 30.
The structure of this downturn is different from before; three things are happening simultaneously:
1. Leverage clearing is nearing completion. 24h total liquidations across the network reached 1.47 billion (long positions account for 87%). The key lies in funding rates: BTC is close to neutral, ETH funding rates have turned negative across multiple platforms. The crowding of longs has significantly decreased, and the odds of continuing to short are narrowing.
2. The trust crisis is the core issue. Approximately $3.2 billion of assets from the Binance incident remain unfrozen. Whether this portion of funds will continue to be sold off is a more important variable to track than liquidations.
3. Macro pressures persist. Brent crude oil has risen to 114, the Nasdaq dropped 2.24%, and December rate hike expectations are heating up.
Key levels:
BTC: The 76,500 level below is the average cost line for short-term holders. Holding this level could stabilize and build momentum; breaking below points to 75K. The first resistance above is 77,800.
ETH: 2,200 is the psychological defense line; breaking below targets 2,160. With ETH funding rates turning negative, once stabilized, the short covering rebound could be stronger than BTC.
In short: leverage has mostly been washed out, the cost-effectiveness of shorting has decreased; but the $3.2 billion unfrozen assets are a sword hanging overhead. Do not chase shorts or enter longs yet; wait for the outcome of the 76,500 level battle before making a move. geopolitical uncertainty, elevated energy prices and interest rates that remain restrictive.
If the disruption persists, the inflation implications could become much more important than the initial oil price reaction.
The duration of the supply disruption will matter far more than a single spike in Brent.
#HormuzReopeningPlan Brothers, Fa Jia Ge is really a bit scared now. If it doesn't rise today, I'm ready to run.
Look, more and more people are going long now, 73% are long. What does that mean?
This is basically everyone lining up to jump off the rooftop!
Look at the $ETH long-short ratio data, long accounts have directly soared to 73.24%, with a long-short ratio as high as 2.74!
Retail investors are rushing in like crazy, all fantasizing about catching the bottom.
But think carefully, is the dog dealer doing charity?
Absolutely impossible to make this 70% long crowd rich together!
The position is too heavy, the dealer will very likely kick down hard again, washing out this 70% of followers completely before truly starting the rally.
Honestly, looking at this data, holding my long position at 2215.71, I'm sweating nervously.
Although the forced liquidation price is far at 1839, so no liquidation, but the psychological torture is too painful.
That spike down to 2171 just now did test the bottom, now it's consolidating around 2225, but the moving averages above are pressing down hard, and volume is clearly insufficient.
If the bulls don't pull a big bullish candle to break through 2250 today, this market is really weak, and I will definitely run without hesitation.
In this ruthless market, never think that where there are many people is safe.
I've already drawn my bottom line: if it can't rise today, I'll close my position and leave to protect my principal.
If it dares to test 2180 with another downward spike, I might put in my last bullet to gamble on a violent rebound.
Don't blindly follow the crowd, control your hands, and run immediately if the market is wrong. Surviving in this circle is more important than anything.
$BTC
$SOL
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 US September PCE data released: Core PCE year-on-year 3.1%, previous 3.0%; overall PCE year-on-year 3.6%, previous 3.4%, both data points in line with market expectations. The Fed's core inflation indicator shows a temporary rebound, with core inflation pressure excluding food and energy still present, and food and energy further pushing up overall prices. The downward inflation process has stalled, still short of the 2% policy target. The data may lead the Fed to remain cautious about rate cuts, requiring continuous monitoring of subsequent data to determine whether the inflation rebound is a short-term disturbance or a trend reversal. #Intel Q4 earnings guidance below expectations, stock price plummets $PEPE $ZEC $BTC Microsoft's results offer a different picture: strong cloud momentum, earnings above expectations and substantial cash generation.
The AI trade isn't simply about who spends the most on infrastructure. The companies that can convert that spending into recurring revenue and sustainable margins will have a much stronger position over time.
#MicrosoftQ1AzureSurges What's particularly important is that Azure's expansion is happening alongside growing enterprise adoption of AI services, cloud computing and the infrastructure required to run increasingly sophisticated models.
But there's another side to the story.
The market is becoming more selective about AI spending. Google's latest results showed that even strong cloud growth can struggle to satisfy investors when capital expenditure and cash flow expectations deteriorate.
#MicrosoftQ1AzureSurges $HYPE surged 18% in one day, and the position volume directly increased by 31%.
The market is full of short liquidations being passively pushed up; the leverage has piled up too fast.
Chasing after the volume increase is mostly just taking over others' profit-taking orders.
In this kind of high-leverage crowded structure, when the bulls waver, the sell-off is fiercer than anyone else's.
#HYPE
$HYPE
👇Google's capex outlook has made investors more sensitive to the cost of future growth, while weakness in crypto markets is adding another layer of pressure to Coinbase and Robinhood.
There's also a valuation issue here.
Companies that were priced for years of aggressive growth are now facing a market demanding stronger evidence of profitability and sustainable cash flow.
The difference between a good business and a good stock becomes very clear during periods like this.Originally thought gold could still hold the ground
But once it refreshed 3900, it was directly smashed through
Spot price bottomed around 3891, down over 3% intraday
Silver also broke 50, gold price has cumulatively dropped over 6% this month
Oil prices remain high, fueling inflation expectations
PCE is a bit stronger, December rate hike pricing heats up again
The opportunity cost of holding gold suddenly rises
When gold and silver both get hit
Don’t rush to find a safe-haven narrative for crypto
First, balance your position and mindset Funding situation: Binance hack is the "trigger," structural cracks in ETFs remain unresolved
Binance hack incident — the direct catalyst for today's decline
The market suspects a major hack on Binance's hot wallets, with abnormal transfers detected in multiple hot wallet addresses involving over 60 assets. On-chain estimated outflows amount to approximately $5.3 billion to $5.6 billion. Binance urgently suspended deposits and withdrawals and promised full compensation. Tether, Circle, and others assisted in freezing/intercepting about $2.39 billion to $2.54 billion. CZ estimates losses may slightly exceed $1 billion. The SAFU fund holds about 15,000 BTC (worth approximately $1 billion), providing some degree of protection. However, about $3.2 billion worth of BTC and ETH have not yet been frozen, and whether they continue to face selling pressure is the biggest short-term uncertainty.
ETF — $254.7 million net outflow over 30 days, IBIT's "monopolar inflow" fails to offset overall outflows
In the 30 calendar days ending October 26, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $254.7 million. BlackRock's IBIT attracted nearly $962 million during the same period, but ARKB lost $281.3 million, and outflows from other issuers exceeded IBIT's inflows. On October 22–23, combined outflows totaled $773.5 million; subsequently, from October 26–28, there was a return inflow of $423.6 million, with IBIT accounting for $397.8 million (about 93.9%). The structural crack of "IBIT alone supporting all inflows while others generally outflow" has not been repaired by the short-term inflows. $BTC $ETH $SOL #英特尔Q4业绩指引低于预期，股价大跌 Earnings surged 378%, stock price dropped 10%, I just don't understand this market
$SNDK earnings report came out, I looked at the data, then looked at the stock price, and I'm a bit confused.
Revenue 11 billion, up 378% year-over-year; data center revenue nearly 17 times higher in one year; gross margin 85%, also announced a 1-for-8 stock split. Despite this, the stock started falling pre-market and is now down nearly 10%. Hynix also dropped 7 points.
I checked the comments, and those shouting "cycle peak" are already lining up. The reasoning is quite interesting: the performance is too good, so it must be the peak.
I really can't agree with that. Storage is a cyclical stock, I know that better than anyone, but have you ever seen a "bubble top" with a PE of only 8 times?
SanDisk is now at 8.9, Hynix at 10, clearly the market is pricing them as if "they will collapse next year." If it were really the top, the PE would be dozens of times, everyone shouting "this time is different," and retail investors lining up to buy.
Moreover, this wave of demand is real; AI data centers are genuinely spending big money to grab storage, with orders signed through 2028. This is something visible, not just hype.
I'm not stopping others from selling, nor pretending to be a prophet saying a rebound is imminent. I'll just say this: those panicking and cutting losses now are often the same people who chased the highs a few days ago.
#闪迪Q1营收同比增378%，Q2营收指引强劲 Many sisters ask me: Has Jiajia's ETH bottomed out?
I want to ask, looking at this trend, has it really bottomed?
The current market situation is definitely not at a bottom.
This is clearly a dog trader giving the bulls a last "cardiopulmonary resuscitation"!
Look at the trend, $ETH has been smashed from 2378 down to 2171, just caught a breath and rebounded to 2230, the moving averages MA5, MA10, MA20 are still pressing down like a waterfall.
Below, MACD's DIF is -0.38, DEA -1.54, barely squeezing out a red bar of 2.32.
The fake golden cross below the zero line might fool new retail investors, but do you think it can fool me?
No way!
And don't forget there's a guillotine of December's macro rate hike hanging over our heads.
CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate hike in December has soared close to 80%, and Bank of America and Kaiyuan Securities are both warning of another 25 basis point hike by year-end.
The interest rate decision directly determines the tightness of dollar liquidity, which is the pricing benchmark for the entire market. Once the rate hike lands, a stronger dollar and tighter liquidity will be the most direct bloodletting blow to high-volatility risk assets like ETH.
The Fed's pause in October was just a hawkish pause; the real killer move is still waiting in December.
In terms of operations, don't rush to bottom-fish.
If it rebounds to the 2240-2250 range and shows any sign of weakness, that will be a good opportunity for us to get back in.
$BTC
$ZEC
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 When the overall market cools down, the "sentiment engine" of meme coins is the first to stall 😅. $DOGE retraced 6%, falling back to around $0.074, and $SHIB and $PEPE also shrank accordingly. Without strong narrative support, once the market weakens, the weaknesses immediately show.
Before this drop, meme popularity was already low, with the Fear and Greed Index sliding from 46 to 37, clearly entering the fear zone 😨. The key now is not to pick which meme coin is more resistant to decline, but to hold back and avoid catching a falling knife.
Based on past patterns, after an exchange-level black swan event, meme coins often need one to two weeks of repeated bottoming ⏳. If you really want to position yourself, consider waiting for $DOGE to confirm a second stop in the $0.07 area, then observe in batches. Rushing in now is likely not bottom fishing but carrying the bags for whales 🚗💨. #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 I went all in with all my XP
I bet No, and the underlying logic behind this judgment is not that the financial report is bad; on the contrary, the financial data is very strong.
First, the AI storage theme had already experienced a big rally before the financial report, so the positive news was largely priced in by the market, turning the good news into bad news upon realization.
Second, although the current revenue and orders are outstanding, storage is a cyclical sector. The market will prioritize pricing future supply and price guidance. Once the guidance does not exceed explosive expectations, it is difficult to support further gains;
Third, today the computing hardware chain (optical communication, storage) has collectively experienced a pullback sentiment, with the sector's beta being relatively weak, making it harder for SNDK to independently continue rising.
The current market pricing of No at 65 points itself indicates that most funds believe the probability of further gains is low. My bet is on the pullback after the positive news is realized.
$ZEC $SNDK $BTC
#闪迪Q1营收同比增378%，Q2营收指引强劲 Are the bulls still shouting reversal? BTC eyes 75000, ETH looks at 2100, those holding positions may be educated again
I don't agree that this is a "deep rebound after a drop," it feels more like bulls consoling themselves after a downward continuation. BTC is currently around 77467, with an intraday low of 76444; the price remains below EMA7 at 79847 and EMA25 at 81791, with short-term moving averages pressing down without easing. The daily MACD death cross continues, volume ratio rises to 1.36, and despite increased volume on the decline, no effective support has formed; whenever there is a rebound, retail investors rush to call a reversal, which is exactly the liquidity source that bears love the most.
The contract side is even more worrisome: BTC funding rate remains positive, with 73.14% of all accounts being long, and top traders holding 63.35% longs by position value, while open interest has been increasing for nearly an hour. Price dips, OI rises, and leveraged longs remain crowded—this is not a "bottom confirmation," but bulls holding positions fantasizing about rolling over fees. If the area around 76444 breaks again, the market will re-examine the 75000 level; this is just a scenario analysis based on market conditions, not a definitive forecast.
ETH similarly offers no respite for bulls: currently around 2229.93, intraday low at 2172.85, down 6.61% in the past 7 days, and down 16.69% in the past 30 days. Although ETH funding rate has turned negative, long positions still dominate, and OI is increasing simultaneously, indicating some are treating the decline as a buying opportunity. The real danger is not the drop itself, but treating every weak rebound as a lifeline.🚨 Hawkish Fed Outlook Raises Market Pressure!
Former Fed Vice Chair Ferguson warns that a 50 bps rate hike in December remains possible, with further hikes in 2027 as inflation stays elevated.
📉 BTC: Around $77K, with support at $76K–$76.5K. A breakdown could push it toward $75K.
📉 ETH: Near $2,230, with key support at $2,200–$2,150.
Rising rate-hike expectations and the Binance theft incident are adding market uncertainty.
#IntelQ4OutlookMiss It's almost 11:30 PM, brothers, did the big dip today keep you wide awake? Don't think that hitting 77k is the bottom. Looking at the contract data, the main force's shakeout is probably far from over!
First, look at $BTC current price 77600. The strangest thing is that the price dropped nearly 4.5%, but the 4-hour long-short ratio rose counter-trend to 2.91. This indicates retail investors think the drop is the bottom and are bottom-fishing. With such heavy volume, the main force definitely won't give up easily without completely breaking the bulls' defense.
Next, look at $ETH current price 2240, down nearly 5 points, but the long-short ratio is also as high as 2.89, and open interest remains high. Retail investors keep buying more as it falls, the old bad habit unchanged. The bulls' leverage is stacked like a mille-feuille. This extreme formation is basically the main force's favorite cash machine.
Finally, look at $HYPE current price 92.9, which rose nearly 5% against the trend today. The long-short ratio recovered from the low point to 1.09, and open interest remains high. This shows that after the previous short squeeze, long and short chips started high-level rotation. The dog whales are sharpening their knives, so don't blindly chase.
My view: The current market is retail investors stubbornly holding on, the main force hasn't had enough yet. Tomorrow is the weekend, so don't blindly enter the market to bottom-fish tonight. Control your hands and wait until the leverage is completely cleaned out before moving.
Brothers, in today's wave of selling, did you avoid disaster by staying out or got trapped? Where do you think the bottom really is?
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Strategy Q3 net profit reached $19.53 billion, setting a company record for a single quarter, of which $20.91 billion came from the fair value revaluation gains of Bitcoin holdings, making it the absolute main contributor to profits. Revenue from the traditional software main business was only $125 million, slightly down year-on-year, contributing almost no profit. Currently, the company holds about 848,000 BTC, with an average holding cost near $75,400. The rise in BTC this quarter has significantly restored unrealized gains on the books. The company continues its core strategy of "continuous coin accumulation + preferred stock repurchase," maintaining a certain cash reserve as a safety buffer for future additional purchases.
✅ Positive Logic
1. The impressive financial report will strengthen institutional confidence in Bitcoin allocation logic. As a BTC market indicator, MSTR is likely to drive a recovery in crypto market sentiment.
2. The balance sheet has greatly improved, eliminating previous unrealized loss pressure, opening financing space, facilitating further bond issuance and capital raising to increase BTC holdings.
✅ Core Risks
1. Profits are unrealized book gains; as long as BTC is not sold, profits can be retracted anytime with price pullbacks. The company itself lacks stable operating cash flow to support these profits.
2. Continuous coin purchases rely on capital increases and bond issuance, with long-term risks of equity dilution and interest pressure. This quarter has already seen a decline in BTC shares per share. #StrategyQ3净利润创单季新高，数字资产收益贡献显著 Review: Why did so many people get wiped out by last night's volatility!? Actually, if you look at the daily level, from 55,000 up to 82,000 there was almost no pullback, then the bullish trend continued, pushing up to 87,000. This counts as the first two waves of this trend. From the previous PCE data, many people don't understand why one data point could cause such a severe drop. In fact, it’s all about the balance of longs and shorts during the session. When there are more longs, the probability of liquidating longs is much higher, especially when the macro fundamentals are slightly unfavorable, triggering a downtrend. It just gave a fuse. Every meeting strengthens the downtrend and conveniently liquidates the longs accumulated over the two waves of rally. Many people say it won’t break the previous low of 74,900. Honestly, if it breaks that, you can be outright bearish. This time, the PCE plus the crypto theft is not a coincidence but a variable that should have happened. Many people are stuck in old patterns, and those who haven’t experienced bull and bear markets easily draw charts based on the past. Plus, with the US stock market entering the scene, many more variables come into play. So for those still playing in this market, remember no matter what you do, always have brakes on, not blindly looking one way. No one knows how many traps await you next second. The only thing you can do is control your drawdown to manage your losses, only then do you have the right to talk about profits $BTC $ETH $SOL This giant whale held a long position for nearly 4 months, stubbornly holding onto it, and finally made a move today—closing $100 million worth of BTC and ETH long positions, pocketing $17.78 million in profit.
But the key is not how much he earned, but what he did after closing the position.
He immediately opened a short position of 20,000 ETH at $2,228 each, worth $44.6 million.
He held a long position for a quarter, made money and didn’t exit, instead flipping to short. This is not an ordinary technical correction judgment; this is betting on a trend change with real money.
Look at today’s capital structure: BTC spot net inflow of $42.46 million over 4 hours, but contract net outflow of $218 million. Someone is absorbing the spot, but leveraged funds are fleeing.
The giant whale closed longs and opened shorts, contract funds are retreating, spot is absorbing but hesitantly.
$BTC $ETH 🔷 Blockchain outside crypto surpassed networks: $5.3B
1kx: In Q3, blockchain usage outside crypto surpassed infrastructure for the first time ($5.3B vs. $5.1B). Revenues for the half-year increased by 58%.
Downside: network fees dropped by about half. Forecast for 2026: around $100B, down 28% from 2025.
Red flag: calculation is based on nine months.
What weighs more on the market: falling fees or application growth? 👇
DYOR.
$BTC $SOL $CL, growth remains stable but consumption stagnates, how should crude oil demand expectations be revised? GDP grew 3.4% in Q3, but actual consumption expenditure in September nearly stalled, showing inconsistent macro demand signals. Crude oil is also affected by supply discipline, inventories, and geopolitical risks, so it cannot be inferred solely from GDP. If inventories decline and transportation and manufacturing activities remain robust, demand expectations are supported; if consumption continues to weaken, supply increases, and cracking margins are compressed, oil prices may be repriced to reflect slower demand.$ETH
A large number of ETH put options are about to expire, intensifying short-term speculation.
At 9:00 Frankfurt time, 333,649 ETH options will settle, accounting for about one-fifth of the open interest; there are 68,199 in-the-money put options, significantly more than the 8,611 call options.
I am cautiously bearish; the options skew to the downside aligns with the weakness of the 4H moving average; the long/short ratio is 2.76, and I will focus on whether the 2,232.61 support can hold.
OKX data: ETH 2,241.24 USDT, 24h -4.96%, volume 820.1M USDT.
Do you think the option expiry will amplify volatility or have limited impact?
Not investment advice. DYOR. #USCorePCERisesTo3.1% 🔥Is the bull market over? Is the hacker coin theft a staged act?!
From the weekly perspective, BTC and ETH have long entered a bearish correction trend, which is the second wave correction within the bull market, not the end of the bull market.
This round of decline is caused by the manipulators using negative news such as hacker coin theft and weak US stocks to create panic and clear long positions. The more it falls, the more suitable it is for spot batch layout, which is a golden pit market.
🟠 $BTC
• 75,000 is the first hurdle. There are too many pending orders from retail investors around here. The manipulators probably won't be so kind. Once it breaks below, look further down.
🔺First target: 72,000–73,000. This area has nearly 200 million long positions clearing orders and is a key liquidity zone targeted by the main force. 73127 (daily MA200 + Fibonacci 0.618 resonance level). The previous bull market also retested MA200 here. After hitting this point, the market structure will become much clearer.
Since it has already fallen to this range, there is a probability of a full retest to repair the weekly and monthly chart patterns.
🔵 $ETH
Focus on Fibonacci target points
🔺 0.5 level: 2150 (MA200=2158, likely to be pierced and tested)
🔺 0.618 level: 2050/2055 (vacuum zone, the starting point of the previous rapid breakout, a stop-loss observation point)
Note the risks
• If 2050 is effectively broken down, it will continue to drop, liquidating long positions around 1980.
Currently still in complex oscillation. Follow how the monthly and weekly charts close.
• Fast pace: complete the drop before the election
• Slow pace: drag on until late November Intel $INTC plummeted 30%, what's the problem?!
Intel used to be a giant in the PC processor field, but with the rise of AI, it seems a bit behind the pace.
Here's a simple breakdown of the issues revealed in this earnings report 👇
1️⃣ Q4 guidance below expectations
Q3 EPS reached $0.52, higher than the expected $0.40, but Q4 revenue is forecasted at only $15–16 billion, below the market expectation of $17.07 billion.
2️⃣ PC business under pressure
Memory price increases have pushed up computer costs, and consumers may delay upgrading. Intel expects PC shipments to decline about 12% this year.
3️⃣ AI growth, but profits haven't caught up yet
Data center and AI revenue grew 78% year-over-year, but capacity expansion and advanced process R&D require substantial funding, so cash flow is still under pressure.
My view:
Intel does have AI opportunities, but transformation takes time. The market wants to see not just growth stories but real profits.
Do you think this plunge is an overreaction by the market, or does Intel really need more time? 👇
$INTC｜Not investment advice
#英特尔Q4业绩指引低于预期，股价大跌 $BTC's largest buyer Strategy is completely out this round.
Only bought 267 coins in a single week, instead spent $190 million to buy back their own stock.
The main capital focus has clearly long shifted to debt management.
They previously sold spot to pay interest, now even the strongest support funds refuse to spend money, shorts are completely dominating the market.
Spot whales have started tightening their wallets, so there is basically no decent support below.
#BTC
$BTC
👇$LINK 10.49, down eight points; meanwhile $BTC down four points, SOL down six points.
Oracles as infrastructure theoretically should move in sync with the overall market, but today they fell even more than the leader, indicating one thing: when institutional narratives fail to materialize, they become high beta, no different from altcoins. Stories about RWA, cross-chain, and institutional access have been told for a long time, but when the whole market deleverages, no one cares if you're selling shovels.
$SOL down six points is also reasonable; when on-chain speculation and meme activities cool off, fees and activity drop accordingly, making it more sensitive than BTC.
Risk: The problem with tickets like LINK is not the drop itself, but that expectations are set too high, so the pullback has no bottom.The worst hit in this wave isn't the spot market, but the leverage. $1.5 billion liquidated in 24 hours, longs bleeding heavily. Every big drop follows the same pattern: first kill the leverage, then see if the spot buyers can hold.
Coinbase premium turned negative, US institutions are pulling back; although ETFs have slight net inflows, overall sentiment remains cautious. Liquidity is even worse over the weekend, so volatility could be greater.
#BTC #ETH #leverage
#liquidation #market sentiment #weekend
Are you watching empty-handed or buying in batches over the weekend? Not investment advice. Weekend rebound, next week offers opportunities for phased bottom-fishing — Latest views and analysis from top traders as of 2026.10.30
1. Crypto market quick update from top trader Huanggua Cat
Updated at 6:11 AM Beijing time on October 30:
Observing for three days, bottom-fishing daily, sprinting forward.
If you want to know which coins to hoard for the next bull market, just look at today's Binance hack incident reportedly involving $5.6 billion, and you probably have your answer hahaha.
Folks, no wonder $ETH is Kim Jong-un's favorite little treasure.
I'm even more bullish on my ETH babies hahaha.
But jokes aside, I will be paying special attention to the market over the next 72 hours; I don't rule out the possibility of another round of catch-up decline. I've already started preparing to DCA in batches for bottom-fishing.
This incident reminds me of 2022.
You probably remember that when LUNA crashed in May 2022, the market hadn't truly bottomed yet. In June, Celsius and 3AC blew up one after another, and BTC was hammered down to around $17,600. Then in November, FTX exploded, and BTC finally dropped to about $15,500.
Looking back now, those panic moments were actually very good opportunities to build positions during that cycle. But the problem was, these opportunities didn't appear on the same day; they were spaced out over several months.
Many major crash events in crypto history tend to cluster when the market is forced to deleverage.$DOGE using artificial intelligence
Binance announced allocating more than $6.34 billion from the company's private funds and the Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) to cover and fully compensate for the losses resulting from the major security breach it suffered
$DOGE is hungry #StrategyQ3净利润创单季新高，数字资产收益贡献显著 Earnings Report｜Strategy Q3 net profit hits a new single-quarter record, with digital asset income becoming the absolute main driver.
This earnings report shows an operating profit of approximately $20.91 billion, almost entirely derived from changes in the fair value of digital assets; net profit reached $19.53 billion, a staggering increase compared to $2.79 billion in the same period last year. As of the reporting period, its Bitcoin holdings continue to expand, making it one of the largest BTC holders in the global public market.
Here is a key logic: after adopting fair value accounting standards, price fluctuations of coins are directly recorded in current profits and losses, allowing income to be recognized without selling. In other words, this impressive profit mostly represents unrealized gains and does not equate to cash in hand. Revenue from the software main business was only $125.4 million, a slight year-on-year decline, contributing almost nothing to the performance.$XRP
Short Entry: $1.2520 – $1.2560 USD
🎯 TP1: $1.2440 USD
🎯 TP2: $1.2350 USD
🎯 TP3: $1.2220 USD
Stop-Loss: $1.2660 USD
#IntelQ4OutlookMiss $DOT is recovering within a broader downtrend, with a V-shaped rebound from 0.8687 forming higher lows. Price holds 0.9554, testing resistance near 0.9600 while 0.9200 acts as support.
Entry Zone: 0.9450–0.9550
Target 1: 0.9800
Target 2: 1.0000
Target 3: 1.0430
Stop Loss: 0.9150
Bullish continuation stays valid above 0.9200; a close below 0.9150 invalidates the setup.$BCH
Short Entry: $291.50 – $293.00 USD
🎯 TP1: $289.00 USD
🎯 TP2: $286.00 USD
🎯 TP3: $282.00 USD
Stop-Loss: $296.00 USD
#UnitedForCryptoSecurity Settlement day is approaching, but don't rush to take sides on the funding rates (｡•̀ᴗ-)✧
Funding rates act like a "toll fee" between longs and shorts: when positive, longs pay shorts; when negative, shorts pay longs. Currently, $BTC and $ZEC are still paying fees, while $ETH and SOL have reversed to collecting fees. With two coins positive and two negative, it shows that the urgency between longs and shorts varies across these coins (¬‿¬)
Positions are even more interesting: SOL dropped 10.91% in one day—not the steepest drop—but its position reduction is the most aggressive; BTC price fell 1.90%, yet its position increased by 1.91%, indicating someone is buying on the dip. Volume surged to 339.67 billion, open interest shrank to 138.882 billion; money came in but positions didn't hold, resembling pre-settlement turnover rather than a bottom breakout with volume (⊙o⊙)
Before costs unify, price changes are just surface-level. The positions that retreat the most aren't necessarily the weakest; they might just be the first to exit respectfully (￣▽￣)ノ#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #加密行业协同守护资产安全 $BNB
Binance laid out the timeline tonight: aiming to resume withdrawals before November 1, and to announce a full reserve proof on November 2. The CEO added that the company will fully cover the losses with its own funds.
My judgment is quite simple—I believe this statement. But pay attention to the details—He Yi initially said 45 hours, now it’s aiming for November 1, with the added word 'aiming'. Giving a date like squeezing toothpaste shows there’s still some back and forth, not a confident, chest-thumping assurance.
The market is more honest than words: BNB current price is 703, down over 6 points in 24 hours, lowest at 678, almost the same price as Binance’s own and OKX. Fee rate is -1.4bp, shorts are still crowded inside and haven’t left, with open interest of 87,000 coins worth about 61 million USD stubbornly holding on.
Platform coins are tied to redemption credit. If withdrawals really open on the 1st, that’s more effective than shouting a hundred times now. Until then, I won’t touch platform coins, just watching the show.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Storage can't hold up either, where is the left-side bottom-fishing window?
ETH whales have finally backed down, starting to frantically cut losses to survive.
The pre-market atmosphere remains grim. The storage sector, propped up by SK Hynix for a day, still fell further, the cover has been lifted. Google has returned to near its March lows, Micron and SanDisk are testing July support, next to watch are the midterm election results and the evolution of the war.
There are roughly two paths: if both chambers are lost, the market may continue to drop first, then brew a major reversal at some point; if Congress is split, it might reverse directly. My plan is to fully buy in batches on the left side before November 3, then increase leverage on the right side after news confirmation. This is a window for a capital scale leap, but leverage is a double-edged sword, discipline must not be lost.
⚠️ Market review is just a sharing of thoughts, not investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, please strictly control risks! ETF is "buying," but not the same batch of BTC
BTC spot ETF net inflow over three days is about 424 million, turning positive cumulatively in October, but the price dropped from 81,000 to around 77,000. IBIT alone absorbed 99% of the three-day inflow, while hedge funds reduced about 68,000 ETF exposure in the same period — net inflow "buy" and fund "sell" happening simultaneously.
$BTC around 77,600. If it breaks below 76,707, long liquidation intensity is about 1.9 billion; above 84,705 there are only 1.36 billion short positions. Before reclaiming 78,000, recovery is just recovery.
$ETH around 2,250. October ETF net outflow is about 1.35 billion, with 17 out of 20 days negative. Early addresses that built positions from 2015 to 2017 transferred about 56,000 ETH in October, many flowing to exchanges; a giant whale holding 93,000 long positions was forced to liquidate 36,500, with new liquidation prices at 2,122 and 2,129.
$SOL around 100. ETF net outflow over two days is about 24.82 million, but spot net inflow over 24 hours is about 39 million, and contract net outflow about 27.9 million. ETF is selling, spot is buying. On-chain RWA broke through 5.19 billion USD, a historical high.
In short: three coins, book funds and real chips are telling different stories.
For record-keeping only, not investment advice.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #霍尔木兹重开方案浮现，油价回落能否持续？ The recent drop in oil prices is mainly due to the market pre-trading the expectation of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, releasing the previously accumulated geopolitical risk premium. The Strait of Hormuz handles nearly 30% of global seaborne crude oil; once the route is blocked, the supply shock is very strong. Much of the previous oil price increase was risk premium rather than purely driven by fundamental supply and demand.
✅ Core uncertainty: The plan is only an intention and has not been implemented yet
Currently, only the mediators have proposed an opening plan. There are obvious differences between the US and Iran on core demands such as nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and navigation security guarantees, with no formal agreement reached. Even if a temporary navigation consensus is reached, mine clearance, insurance rate reductions, and shipowners restoring capacity will take time. It is difficult to immediately return to the pre-conflict full-capacity external transport level. Frictions may arise again during negotiations, causing oil prices to rebound quickly.
✅ Crude oil fundamentals have bottom support
OPEC+ continues to implement production cuts to support supply, global crude inventories remain relatively low, and seasonal refinery demand persists. Relying solely on navigation expectations, it is difficult to sustain a continuous one-sided downward trend. Even if the strait reopens smoothly, it only repairs supply expectations and will not directly bring a large amount of new crude oil production.
✅ Market outlook and key tracking points
In the short term, a high-level oscillation pattern is highly likely, with weak sustainability of the decline and high volatility maintained under geopolitical disturbances. Key points to watch going forward: the signing of a formal agreement, actual tanker passage data through the strait, and whether OPEC+ adjusts its production cut policy. $BTC $ETH $HYPE Intel once dropped nearly 30% today, but its Q3 performance actually exceeded expectations.
My biggest takeaway this week: the market now only cares about two things, guidance and cash flow.
1️⃣ Intel: Q3 EPS of $0.52 beat expectations, but Q4 revenue guidance is only $15-16 billion, while the market originally expected about $17 billion. Past good results can't outweigh bad news for the next quarter.
2️⃣ Amazon: AWS grew 39%, the fastest in nearly 5 years. But quarterly capital expenditure was $77.3 billion, and free cash flow over the past 12 months was -$42.4 billion. No matter how good the cloud is, if cash flow is negative, it still gets sold off.
How I respond: I won’t buy tech stocks until the Nasdaq stops falling; I’ll wait for Apple’s earnings report next Monday.
What do you think? After Apple’s earnings, will the Nasdaq rebound or continue to fall?
This is not investment advice
#美股 #AI #财报#StrategyQ3净利润创单季新高，数字资产收益贡献显著
Personal opinion, for reference only.
This financial report is a victory of the bull market Beta, not a victory of corporate management Alpha. It proves the explosive power of the "public company heavily invested in Bitcoin" model during an uptrend, but its profitability is not sustainable and entirely dependent on Bitcoin market conditions.🚨 The black swan just hit, so why are altcoins suddenly flying everywhere? This exchange just turned the crypto world into a big magic show! 🤡
Right after the exchange's sudden security incident, the market instantly went into "end of the world" mode: BTC plunged, altcoins spiked down, and the comment section was full of "bull market is over."
And then? Some altcoins started bouncing all over the screen again. Yesterday people were shouting zero, today some are already asking, "Is the 10x coin coming?"🤣
I see three layers of logic behind this reversal.
First, panic selling concentrated on fleeing. At the most anxious moment, many people didn’t look at fundamentals, they just wanted to run. After the selling pressure eased, oversold coins naturally tend to have technical rebounds.
Second, the exchange announced progress on asset freezing and loss compensation arrangements, which eased market worries about risk spreading. But be clear: freezing doesn’t mean recovery, and promised compensation doesn’t mean all processes are complete.
Third, short-term funds are taking advantage of the chaos to speculate, combined with short-sellers covering losses, some coins may show violent V-shaped rebounds. Fast gains don’t mean the project suddenly got stronger, nor that the whole market has entered altcoin season.
What we really need to watch now are the follow-up security investigations, withdrawal resumption status, and whether there is sustained spot buying behind the rebound. Without funds, just emotions, the fireworks will end in a mess.
The black swan didn’t kill the crypto world; instead, it confused both bulls and bears. 😂
Brothers, do you think this is a real reversal after the bad news landed, or is it a big "bull trap" staged by the whales?
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 The Binance security incident has given traders a convenient excuse for a selloff that was already gathering pace. $BTC and $ETH both fell sharply after preliminary disclosure, but the more instructive detail is what happened before the headline landed: both assets had already slipped from their intraday highs. Weakness came first; the shock amplified it. Binance's initial notice puts the expected exposure at roughly $6.3 billion, with about $3 billion of assets frozen on-chain, and the investigThe grain stored in the barn has bottomed out for two consecutive seasons, yet the fields are still desperately being fertilized — this was the first image that popped into my head when I saw Alphabet's financial report this morning. It dropped 12.64% in one day, and its 500 billion market cap vanished just like that. Since it went public, it has never fallen this sharply in a single day. Free cash flow has been negative for two consecutive quarters, with a 9.1 billion hole. This isn’t a minor drought; it’s like the irrigation channels have broken first.
As an old farmer looking at crops, I never just look at how tall the seedlings are. Cloud business is growing fast, that’s like the branches and leaves sprouting vigorously; but the advertising field, the ears of grain are clearly not as heavy as in previous years. What’s worse is that they are pouring a lot of fertilizer into the AI field that hasn’t even grown yet, fertilizing aggressively, but the time for the ears to emerge hasn’t come. The veteran investment bankers from UBS, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, each have lowered their target prices, like old farmers in the village shaking their heads at the sky, saying this season’s harvest is likely to be discounted. But some still maintain good ratings, saying the fertilizer wasn’t wasted — the disagreement lies here: whether this field is being fertilized correctly, or if all the seeds were sown into barren soil where nothing grows.
Then look at that linked field $xLLY, when the weather in the US stock market changes, the soil here also gets damp. It doesn’t grow on its own; it follows the temperature across the ocean. When there’s frost over there, cracks appear here. We farmers understand this best: when other fields get heavy rain, you can’t avoid it in your row either, the water is connected.
But to be honest, crops don’t grow in a day. In spring plowing, if you think the seedlings are short and keep pulling them out every day, in the end, nothing will be left. Negative cash flow means digging into stored grain in winter; whether it’s severe depends on if it can turn fertilizer into ears in spring. Those who rush to cut green seedlings on the frost day mostly lose money; those who can wait patiently for it to fill with grain and ripen yellow will harvest a full barn. Whether this field rests for a season or really lies fallow for years depends on how it grows by the next season; you can’t rush it. #googlepostearningsdropBinance's latest update highlights three key numbers and one promise.
The official announcement states: preliminary estimates indicate an impact of about $6.3 billion, approximately $3 billion of assets have been frozen on-chain, and they promise to cover losses using SAFU and company funds.
The impact amount does not equal the final net loss.
Freezing does not mean the money has been recovered.
The compensation promise still needs to be seen through actual fulfillment.
Preliminary investigations point to a possible breach of an engineer's computer, but the final technical report has not yet been released.
Compared to Bitcoin, I am more focused on the follow-through: when deposits and withdrawals will resume, whether the proof of reserves after repair can be verified, and whether buying demand can sustain after the news is out.
The compensation promise can ease panic, but trust restoration depends on step-by-step delivery. Don't mistake the phrase "funds are safe" as meaning all risks are over. #英特尔Q4业绩指引低于预期，股价大跌 Check costs before settlement: fee rates diverge, positions retreat first
The leader has something to say
As the settlement day approaches, what the market shows first is not direction, but a cost gap. $BTC fee rate remains at 0.0064%, $ZEC as high as 0.0097%; $ETH turns negative to -0.0016%, SOL at -0.0049%. Paying fees on one side and receiving money on the other, costs are not unified, so price movements must be set aside for now.
Positions are also retreating. In the past hour, BTC, ETH, SOL, and ZEC shrank by 0.39%, 0.45%, 0.62%, and 0.53% respectively; on a daily basis, BTC increased by 1.91%, ETH decreased by 2.95%, ZEC decreased by 1.69%, SOL decreased by 10.91%. Prices are also awkward: BTC is around 78560, down 1.90%, ETH around 2247, down 2.97%, SOL around 98.13, down 2.05%, ZEC around 1272, up 2.16%. ZEC, which is rising, is reducing positions, while among the falling ones only BTC is increasing.
The total network transaction volume surged to 339.67 billion, up 69.59%, but open interest dropped to 138.882 billion, down 0.57%. Volume came in, but positions were not held, more like turnover before settlement rather than volume expansion at the bottom.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #加密行业协同守护资产安全 #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高
"Core PCE rebounds, Bitcoin falls below 78,000"
The just-released US September core PCE rose year-on-year to 3.1%, and the overall PCE also increased to 3.6%. Inflation stickiness is more stubborn than expected, instantly shattering the market's rate cut illusions.
Bitcoin spot price dropped 5.66% in a single day, closing at 77,149.8 USD, with total network trading volume surging to 1.417 billion USD. Long leverage positions faced a cascade of liquidations.
The Federal Reserve maintained rates at 3.75% to 4.00% in October, but Cook and Harnack advocate for a rate hike. The probability of a 25 basis point hike in December remains above 80%. $BTC The Strait of Hormuz is not an ordinary shipping lane; it is a prestressed anchor embedded in the global energy load-bearing wall. Now, some want to dismantle the anchor first and then patch the waterproofing layer of the nuclear negotiations. Resuming navigation in four days or seven days essentially concerns who signs the handover document first between the general contractor and the owner; the timeline numbers are just superficial. On one side, there is a demand to lift sanctions before resuming work, while on the other, insistence on restarting nuclear talks before payment; if the sequence is wrong, the entire temporary support will become unstable before the load returns.
I have worked on cross-sea projects and fear the "partial traffic while supplementing piles" approach the most. The Gulf countries' phased peace plan is like dividing a cross-sea bridge into several sections: first opening the right side, then closing the left. It sounds controllable, but expansion joints, settlement monitoring points, and fire ring roads must be formed all at once. Iran says sanctions will ease and the gate can open in four days, treating navigation as a temporary trestle; however, permanent structures require continuous geological surveys, insurance and reinsurance, shipowner confidence, and port scheduling. Missing any of these means navigation capacity is only a "temporary load" before acceptance. The U.S. insisting on restarting nuclear talks first is equivalent to requiring foundation acceptance before allowing the superstructure steel erection. This is logically correct in engineering, but once the schedule and payment milestones are politicized, no one wants to pour the first batch of concrete.
UBS raised its Brent forecast for the end of the year from 100 to 110, not just a simple price target increase but adding a "temporary support fee" to the risk premium. Inventory decline is like reducing structural self-weight, but high freight costs increase the friction coefficient of the channel; insurance premiums, detours, and demurrage all add change orders to the total cost. The risk premium is not just a decorative surface; it bears the load transfer. As long as disputes over the sequence of nuclear talks and sanctions remain, the oil price settlement cannot be completed. Any "resumption" news is just removing a layer of scaffolding; the load-bearing wall has not been poured to the top.
Looking at the linkage of the tokenized U.S. stock $xAMZN, don’t be fooled by the smooth curve on the market. Tokenized stocks are like prefabricated curtain walls: they look standard and install quickly, but what truly determines safety are the embedded parts—custody, clearing, market-making depth, and time zone mismatches. The main structure bears all wind loads during U.S. stock hours, but the token price fluctuates on a different timeline, equivalent to insufficient temperature expansion joints. Weekend liquidity thins, and gusts amplify volatility. The load transfer path goes from the distant main structure to this "curtain wall panel," with a transition layer in between. Without fatigue testing of the joints, don’t treat it as a permanent structure.
If the Gulf peace plan remains only a rendering, Hormuz will still be a construction joint in the global energy core tube: invisible under normal conditions, but the first to leak when water pressure rises. Resuming navigation in four days is a change order compressing the schedule; the sequence of nuclear talks and sanctions is the structural calculation book. Without signing the calculation book, the ribbon-cutting of the reopening is just a red ribbon on a temporary trestle. #hormuzreopeningplan$XAU, Has gold lost support under high interest rates? High real interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, but safe-haven demand, central bank purchases, and the dollar's movement also affect pricing. Current inflation stickiness limits rate cut expectations, so gold needs other sources of demand to take over. If the dollar falls, and safe-haven funds and central bank demand remain, gold prices can absorb the pressure from interest rates; if real yields continue to rise and the safe-haven premium fades, the trend outlook should turn cautious.