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Funding rate dropped, but that doesn't mean long positions got lighter
$ZEC rose 4.1% in 24 hours, with the latest funding rate at 0.0037%.
The last time it was 0.0071%, so longs are paying nearly half less.
How this number is calculated:
The rate is charged based on the notional value of the position and deducted at settlement.
Price went up, but the rate dropped, indicating longs weren't chased with higher costs.
Common misunderstanding:
The price increase reflects the past, while the funding rate reflects the burden at settlement.
These two things are not at the same point in time and cannot prove each other.
In this $ZEC rally, longs weren't charged heavier fees.
But how the next round of funding rates will go, this settlement can't answer.
Rising sharply and paying more are inherently different things.
#OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 $ZEC 94% vote No, I stand with 6%—but with conditions. Q3 actually beat: revenue 16.5 billion (+21%), EPS 0.52 vs expected 0.41; the sell-off hit Q4 guidance (15.5 billion vs expected 17 billion). My discipline: ① After dropping near 70, if no new low in 30 minutes → bet on recovery, target 74–78; ② Volume break below 68 → don’t catch the falling knife, admit mistake; ③ Within half position, no heavy overnight holding. The bet is not on Intel’s turnaround, but that the expectation gap was overkilled. If wrong, admit mistake at the top. #英特尔Q4业绩指引低于预期，股价大跌 #EarningsReview #NotInvestmentAdviceThe biggest fear in business is not having excess inventory, but running out of working capital before the goods are sold. Seeing Core Trader 07 open a new 3x leveraged short position on $PLTR with a nominal position of about $149,400, my first thought wasn’t how much profit could be made, but whether this "heavy asset investment" would squeeze the working capital.
My judgment is: 3x leverage alone is not proof that this position is safe; whether it can be sustained depends on how much risk reserve is left outside the position. Roughly calculating margin by dividing nominal value by leverage, the margin used is about $49,800; but since the total account funds are not provided, just looking at the position size, it’s impossible to tell if this is a light test trade or if most of the capital is staked on one bet.
I usually separate input-output and cash flow calculations. Assuming the price moves 10% against the position, ignoring fees and other factors, this short position would have an unrealized loss of about $14,900, which is roughly 30% of the estimated margin above. Even if the directional judgment eventually pays off, the interim capital pressure might force an exit. Having expected profits on paper doesn’t mean the working capital can hold up; it’s the same principle as running a company.
So, I’m more concerned about capital arrangement for this trade rather than rushing to guess right or wrong. For friends in business, if an investment occupies about $50,000, how much additional cash would you set aside as a risk reserve? Would this money be completely separated from daily operating funds? 10.30: Wishing you prosperity
Continuing from this morning's view, let's briefly review the big picture. The morning view was to retest the 7.84 level and, after a pullback, to lightly go long. Why retest 7.84? Many bottom-fishers jumped in during this sharp drop, and their stop losses are likely around 7.84 because there is a small support on the five-minute chart there. Looking at the market, the price retested and directly broke below 7.84, reaching around 7.6. In terms of the previous trend, 7.6 is very critical because in the last move, this level held and led to a 10,000-point rise. This time, the price also hit this level and retested it effectively, with a rebound high at 7.86. In the next few days, the price may oscillate in a box range between 7.6 and 7.9. Support is at 7.6, and the first wave's rebound high is 7.97. Also, 7.97 is the lower boundary of the previous consolidation. The strategy going forward is to buy on the way up and short on the way down until this range is broken BTC Pin Bar Review: Key Levels Battle Under Liquidity Squeeze
Core Viewpoint: Qualify as an oversold rebound triggered by a liquidity crisis, not a trend reversal. Focus closely on the two key liquidity zones at 78600 and 80000
1. Attribution: Market makers passively deleveraging
This morning, Binance withdrawal suspension caused a break in the cross-exchange arbitrage chain, forcing market makers to indiscriminately sell to raise cash. This is a liquidity event, not a credit collapse. The entire network saw 499 million in 24h liquidations (longs accounted for 81%), leverage was cleaned out, but spot did not panic sell off
2. Heatmap Key Level Interpretation
76700 (realized) The bright yellow band in the chart is the recent concentrated long liquidation zone, which has been touched and partially absorbed.
78600 (short-term resistance) There is a relatively thin liquidation band here, serving as the first hurdle for the rebound
80000 - 80500 (core resistance) Accumulated the thickest green liquidity (dense area of long and short forced liquidations), this is the largest short-term selling pressure wall. Only by effectively holding above this level and retesting without breaking down can the downtrend structure be confirmed as broken
76500 (defensive support) If 78200 repeatedly fails to hold, the price is very likely to retest this level for support
3. Sentiment and Strategy
OKX long-short ratio rose to 2.63 (retail investors adding positions against the trend), funding rate remains low (0.008%), indicating longs have not been completely scared off, but on-chain selling pressure is not yet over $BTC #加密黑天鵝 最脆弱的那一环，从来不是方向判断，而是小市值币的波动脾气。 你有没有过那种感觉：方向看对了，仓位却先被甩下车？ 昨晚复盘一笔真实记录，PONS 和 XRP 两笔空单几乎同时进场，都是全仓十倍。区别在于，PONS 属于弹性极强的小盘子，XRP 波动相对温和，我当时用同一套看跌思路去处理，等于把两种完全不同的波动结构塞进同一个模具。结果 PONS 亏损 734.26U，亏损率 64.43%；XRP 亏 55.21U，亏损率 16.98%。数字摆在一起，最刺眼的不是金额，而是小币那根反向脉冲来得太快，没给纠错留出空间。 这里市场实际在交易的东西，值得多想一层。小市值标的的深度薄，价格对情绪的敏感度远高于主流币，一旦短线资金决定推一把，空头回补和止损单会叠在一起放大波动。也就是说，这类仓位赌的不只是方向，还有节奏和容错。方向对了但节奏错，照样出局。 偏多的路径也存在：账户从低点 429.56 回升到 1946.09，单日反弹 62.11%，说明市场给了一记很急的修复。可这更像波动阶段的馈赠，不能倒推前面的逻辑成立。反弹越猛，越容易让人误以为风险已经过去，其实小币的二次脉冲往往就藏在这种松懈里。Don't be drawn in by the hype of "institutional new launches."
Whether it's VanEck's WBMO or Franklin's two ETFs, BTC only plays a small supporting role in the portfolio, capped at 5%, accumulating slowly through dividends rather than large active purchases.
This explains why, despite positive news, the market continues to fall. Under the current liquidity constraints caused by interest rate hike expectations, this incremental growth is a slow variable and cannot support a short-term rebound.
Its true value lies not in driving the market up, but in the paradigm shift. Traditional asset management has found a reliable solution to package crypto assets into ordinary investors' accounts.
Don't expect an immediate explosion, but once this channel remains open, every future bull market will see a continuous influx of off-exchange funds. In the short term, market trends still have to obey macro liquidity.
$BTC $ETH #VanEck与富兰克林推出含BTC配置的新型ETF I think this news leans toward a positive potential capital demand for Bitcoin, but the "up to $30 billion" should not be directly taken as a buy order.
Strategy is considering issuing preferred shares to finance Bitcoin accumulation. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor stated that relying on the existing balance sheet, the company can create up to $30 billion in digital credit without issuing additional common shares or depending on further price increases; this is potential financing capacity, not a publicly announced financing target.
I am more concerned about whether this financing channel can continue to operate. Not issuing common shares means avoiding equity dilution caused by this financing method, but there is still a gap between financing capacity and actual fund receipt, depending on whether investors are willing to subscribe. Mistaking the quota for transaction volume can lead to misjudging the weight of the news.
The use of funds should not be overlooked either. The CEO mentioned a scenario: if $1 billion to $2 billion is raised monthly through STRC financing, part of it could be used for dollar reserves, and the rest for buying coins. Therefore, even if the financing is realized, the entire amount cannot be counted as new purchasing power.
I would see this as progress in the financing model rather than the realization of buy orders. The $19.53 billion net profit in Q3 was mainly driven by the increase in digital asset value, which also reminds me that book profit does not equal available cash. Do you value this model opening financing space more, or worry about the sustainability of subscription demand?#Intel Q4 earnings guidance below expectations, stock price plummets
The leader has something to say
Intel's Q3 revenue was $16.5 billion, a 21% year-over-year increase, which looks decent. But the Q4 guidance collapsed directly, with revenue expected between $15 billion and $16 billion, and earnings per share only $0.25, far below market expectations. Management admitted that the PC market slowdown will last at least until the first half of next year, and the shutdown of the Israel factory will continue to affect shipments. Once the earnings report was released, the stock price plunged in after-hours trading.
I think this is a typical "transitional pain," or even a gap between old and new. The traditional PC business is shrinking, and the heavily invested foundry transformation (Terafab) has yet to contribute substantial revenue. The market originally hoped it could get a taste of AI computing power, but once the guidance came out, all the cards were revealed.
On the market, INTC fell 0.80%, xINTC fell 0.59%. The community predicts only a 7% chance of a rise on the first trading day after hours; capital has already voted with its feet.
The impact on crypto is indirect. The semiconductor giant's guidance bombshell puts pressure on tech stock sentiment, risk appetite shrinks, and Bitcoin also struggles to stand alone. Coupled with last night's brief stampede, the market is extremely fragile now.
Bitcoin dipped to 78,763 last night and is still struggling below 80,000. Let's see if it can retake 80,000; if it can't hold, expect a deeper pullback. Resistance above is between 84,000 and 85,000. Don't chase the rise or kill the dip; set your stop-loss orders well.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck. $ETH $BTC $SOL US core PCE for September rose 3.1% year-over-year, slightly up from August's 3.0%
Overall PCE rose 3.6% year-over-year, also higher than the previous value
Although the data itself meets market expectations, the absolute value is still far from the Fed's 2% target
The probability of a rate hike in December has exceeded 80%
The Fed held steady in October with a 10-2 vote; two officials directly advocated for a rate hike, and Waller's speech was evasive, dovish at times and hawkish at others
$BTC fell below 80,000 amid a wallet theft incident, hitting a six-week low at 76,658 USD
Currently, it has rebounded to around 78,700
This indicates that some of the negative factors have already been priced in; core PCE holding at 3.1% means the Fed's option to hike rates in December remains on the table, and the pressure on risk assets has not been lifted
$BTC #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 🤔 Are BTC and ETH hackers just scapegoats? Even if 6 billion wasn't stolen, this situation is bound to collapse 💥
Last night saw an epic crash in the crypto world. Binance's nearly 6 billion black swan event triggered panic, but the deeper crisis was already hidden in the chip distribution. Only 4.03% of BTC profit positions remain, 96% of holders are underwater, with an average cost of 78967. The 78000-81000 range is packed with red trapped positions. Heavy resistance above means even a slight rebound triggers concentrated selling from positions trying to break even.
Coupled with the US core PCE rising to 3.1% in September and high expectations for rate hikes, macro liquidity continues to tighten. This is effectively a triple blow: black swan crash, everyone deeply underwater, and rebounds accompanied by massive selling pressure. Altcoins like ETH are also sharply down, with leveraged long positions acting as "fuel".
Before the massive trapped positions are digested, any rebound is likely just a desperate escape wave. Avoid impulsive bottom-fishing and catching falling knives. Keep enough cash, strictly control leverage, and wait for confirmation on the right side. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Amazon fell 7% after hours
Alphabet fell 13% the day before
The conclusion is the same: AI is too expensive
But I looked at another line in the financial report
This quarter Meta and OpenAI signed contracts with AWS
The people building AI are accelerating their purchase of computing power
The stock market is selling off companies that sell computing power
These two groups are on different clocks
The market looks at the quarter, customers look at 2027
——
AWS 46 billion, +39%, fastest growth in nearly five years
Profit margin 13.9%, a record high
A company spending 220 billion capex a year still has record profit margins
Compared to Alphabet
Google Cloud doubled, but search ads only +10.5%, profit down 25%
Google is spending money building AI, AI is eating into its most profitable business
Amazon is much cleaner
It is just the landlord. Tenants are expanding leases, the landlord's own old business is not threatened by tenants
——
Free cash flow -42.4 billion, Jassy said 2027 capex will be "significantly higher"
The pressure is
The market demands to see cash flow return, which is completely reasonable
But there are two kinds of inflection points
Demand peaks, money spent but no one pays, that’s real trouble
Demand accelerates, contracts are signed, it just takes time for cash flow to turn positive, that’s another matter
AWS 39%, top customers signing contracts, profit margin hitting records
Points to the latter
Between the stock market and AWS’s customers, who judges more accurately? One side will be corrected.
If AWS falls below 30% next quarter, I will retract all my judgments The bolt on the old warehouse door was just pulled open, and the 30 trillion jin of stored grain hasn't even been sifted yet, but outside, people are already sniffing the air, coming to hoard new shares. This time, DTCC has made a one-to-one duplicate receipt of the batch of securities stored in the warehouse as collateral—34 stocks, ETFs, and government bonds—matching exactly, with no loss of equity, tradable day and night. Twenty long-established grain firms have stamped their approval, with Morgan and Citibank listed in the booklet.
But the farmers watch the scene, not the voices, they watch the soil moisture. This 30 trillion sounds like a full warehouse and stockpile, but it's an "account of arable land ready for planting," not "ears of grain already sprouted." The agreement signed is for irrigation, not that all the fields have been plowed yet. The two channels dug so far, Canton and the private Besu in the home yard, are for small water irrigation of beds first; the public channels for flood irrigation of large fields are still on the blueprint. Whether the water can fully soak in, and whether the soil fertility can keep up afterward, must wait for a crop to grow and speak.
The most important thing to watch is the "one-to-one endorsement." The old farmers understand this: if you store one jin of grain in the warehouse and make a duplicate ticket, that ticket is valuable; but if one day the grain in the warehouse moves but extra tickets are printed outside, those are empty tickets that will fly away with the wind. So what really needs monitoring is not how fast the tokens can move, but whether the grain held in custody is solid and whether the accounts can be reconciled daily. The benefits of settlement and collateral work the same way—if the channels are dug well, water is saved by half; if dug roughly, all the water seeps into the ditches, looking lively but the fields remain dry.
The XIWM sign hanging out is a newly reclaimed experimental field, not a ready grain stack. A famous name does not equal stable yield.
According to the season, it's just the thaw and soil preparation time, far from the pollen dispersal of cotton. Before the channels reach the field heads, whoever treats the grain tickets as daily food will end up with a pot of undercooked rice. #dtcctokenizationlive"No issuance of common stock" is the line of requirement I most want to review 💻. The strategy considers issuing preferred stock to increase holdings of $BTC; the mentioned maximum of $30 billion is just potential financing capacity, not a publicly announced financing target. I think this is a conditional benefit for common stock shareholders, but it does not mean the financing cost disappears.
Breaking it down by code logic: no issuance of common stock can avoid direct dilution; but if replaced by preferred stock, the cost of capital and payment arrangements still need to be reviewed. If continuous interest payments are required and the coin price retracts, then cash reserves must bear the buffering role. This is my stress test, not saying the risk has already occurred. "No dilution" and "no burden" are not the same variable.
If I were to revise, I would first set the coverage rules for the dollar reserves, then decide the coin purchase amount, rather than treating the purchase quantity as the sole upper limit indicator. Please help me review: which payment terms should be disclosed first in this plan to determine whether it is really beneficial for common stock shareholders?Current Price: SUI is trading at 0.8907 (up +2.44%).
24-Hour Range: The price reached a high of 0.9620 and dropped to a low of 0.8272.
Looking Back at Past Ups and Downs
Earlier in the month around October 5, 2026, SUI was riding high at a peak of 1.2644.
Following that peak, the chart shows a steady downward trend as moving averages slid lower and sellers took control.
Recently, heavy selling volume drove a sharp plunge down to a low of 0.8272 before a gree#StrategyQ3 net profit hits a new quarterly high, with significant contribution from digital asset income Binance hacker may have just pulled off one of the smartest cryptocurrency moves I've ever seen.
First, Tether froze $1.5 billion USDT.
Then Circle froze another $800 million USDC.
At that moment, it seemed the hacker's funds were trapped.
But apparently, he had planned this all along.
He didn't keep the stolen USDT in a wallet; instead, he allegedly deposited it into Aave and used it as collateral to borrow ETH.
Then he left.
This is where the story starts to get crazy.
Tether can freeze USDT in wallets.
But it can't freeze the ETH he already borrowed.
So now Aave holds the frozen collateral, while the hacker has liquid ETH.
Unless the protocol can somehow recover the funds, he might not even need to repay the loan.
Both companies instantly froze billions.
But someone who knows how to leverage DeFi may have found a way around both. $UNITREE is priced the same as the underlying stock, yet it still requires so much capital cost. Are you still playing or not? BTC's spike has shaken out all the bulls' funds.
The trigger was this morning's Binance hack of $6.3 billion and the suspension of withdrawals. Panic selling pushed the low to 76,487, but what was really liquidated was leverage, not spot positions: 499 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with bulls accounting for 405 million, and ETH fell below 2,200.
The heatmap is even clearer: the bright yellow band at 76,700 is the recent liquidation concentration zone, already realized; above 78,600 there's a thinner band; further up is the thickest green area between 80,000–80,500, where both long and short forced liquidations are stacked.
This is a liquidity event, not a credit event: once withdrawals stopped, cross-exchange arbitrage and collateral chains broke, market makers could only close positions elsewhere to get cash, leading to indiscriminate selling.
I lean towards a "rebound, not a reversal." OKX account long-short ratio rose from 1.66 to 2.63; retail investors actually added longs during the drop; funding rate is only 0.008%, indicating bulls were just liquidated, not scared off. But dirty money is still swapping ETH, so on-chain selling pressure isn't over.
So I’m only watching two levels: if 78,600 closes above, then it will test the green zone at 80,000; if 78,200 repeatedly fails to hold, 76,500 will be tested again. Whether 80,000 can hold effectively and retest without breaking — only then will the downtrend from 82,000 be considered broken.
#加密產業攜手守護資產安全 $ARB
Arbitrum's biggest challenge is turning network activity into sustainable economic value. Its first-half 2026 report highlighted 478 million transactions and substantial stablecoin transfer activity. Those figures demonstrate meaningful ecosystem usage, but transaction growth alone cannot guarantee long-term token appreciation. Revenue generation, application retention, and the value captured by ArbitrumDAO remain important indicators of ecosystem health. $BTC has pulled back from the low of 76,519 at 10 AM Beijing time, with OKX spot now around 78,450, rebounding 2.5%, and the 24h decline narrowing to 1.8%; $ETH has pulled back from 2,174 to 2,249, still down 2.6% in 24h.
Binance co-founder He Yi said deposits have been normal, withdrawals are expected to resume within 48 hours, while Standard Chartered's Kendrick reminded that until frozen assets are released and details announced, prices may still need to find a bottom.
Leverage is cooling down, with OKX BTC long-short account ratio dropping from 2.67 in the morning to 2.34, ETH from 3.22 to 2.77, and ETH perpetual funding rate has turned negative.
My view is that this rebound is mainly due to short sentiment easing first; don't treat it as a reversal before withdrawals truly resume. If it can't break above 78.8k, a pullback to 77k is very normal. Three things this week
The Federal Reserve holds at 4.00%-4.25%, with an 82.9% chance of a rate hike in December
The ECB holds at 2.65%, with an 84% chance of a rate hike in December
Polymarket launches a 5-minute up/down contract—just bet up or down, lose $1 if wrong, zero if right
Where is the market?
BTC falls below 80,000, ETH approaches the previous low of 2281, total liquidations across the network reach 356 million, bulls dominate. Panic index at 43.
Three facts
Leverage is being cleaned out: fee rate 0.0099% → 0.00437%, open interest declines but not over
Structure remains bearish: daily MACD deeply negative, BOLL middle band at 2414 acts as resistance
Central banks tighten simultaneously: US, Europe, and Japan all tightening together for the first time since 2018
My judgment
Bearish bias, but not blindly shorting. Confidence level 70%
Criteria for being wrong
Turn bullish: break above 2414 + buying volume overwhelms + open interest accumulates heavily
Turn bearish: break below 2281 + failed rebound at 2340
Watch tonight at 20:30 US ECI—directly determines December rate hike probability. Amazon earnings report. #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 $BTC $ETH $SNDK SanDisk has already risen 428% this year. The earnings report beating expectations is good, but the stock price may have already priced it in. The real focus is whether the market will buy it when the US stock market opens tonight.
If it opens high and continues to rise, the price increase cycle continues, and SNDK still has room. If it opens high and then falls, that means "good news priced in and selling off," similar to Samsung's script yesterday.
During the day, it will most likely fluctuate with a slow rise. My personal view is that it will drop again after hours tonight.
#OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场
#ServiceNowQ3业绩喜忧参半，Q4指引不及预期 During the same rebound, astekz is attempting to short, but I prefer to first see if the support can hold. Checking Kraken, the latest $BTC transaction is about $78,306; after the price rises, the continuation of the rebound and the failure to break higher are two paths that now require more specific decision criteria.
The short plan given by astekz enters around $78,551 with a stop loss around $79,115. This is just his trading plan and does not mean the market will definitely go down, nor should the stop loss above be directly taken as a new upward target. The core idea is that the rebound meets resistance, not that the price keeps falling and chasing shorts.
My personal market view leans toward waiting for a pullback: if continuous support forms above $78,000, I will keep the possibility of repair continuation and won’t rush to follow the short; if it falls below this threshold and the rebound fails to recover, I will abandon this repair assumption. The conflict between these two ideas is not resolved by stories but by whether the price truly stabilizes.
I won’t chase orders back and forth between the two paths; I will wait for conditions to appear first. Would you rather observe resistance above or support on the pullback below? This is just for exchanging views and does not constitute investment advice.$RE is the last altcoin in the world and also the last opportunity to make money by shorting.
In recent years, altcoins have created a myth of making money by shorting. Historically, altcoins involving large teams have had an average investment return of -81% one year after listing. Everyone knows that shorting altcoins is like picking up money. Most altcoins in the market have already dropped by 99%, leaving almost no room for maneuver. With the bear market arriving, finding an altcoin suitable for shorting is the key to profiting in a bear market. RE is a newly issued altcoin that was listed during a Bitcoin bull market. Additionally, RE adopted phased unlocking, so it did not drop much after listing. Recently, the US stock market has fully tokenized. Compared to US stocks, altcoins lack fixed assets to support them, lack dividend rights, lack voting rights, lack supervision, and have no asset audits, making them pure worthless paper. RE is like the last eunuch entering the palace in the Qing Dynasty, destined to be completely abandoned by the market. RE still has 800 million coins locked. With the bear market coming, 40 million coins will be unlocked at once in December. Based on the current daily trading volume, it would take 70 consecutive days of dumping to sell them all. Multiple unfavorable factors combined make RE the most suitable altcoin to short. It is expected that after the December unlock, the price will be hammered down to below 0.15 at least. Shorting is like picking up money. At this stage, shorting is still a very good opportunity. Compared to RE's listing price, it has not dropped much yet; the -81% drop for RE is just beginning. $XRP Franklin's fund shares on XRPL directly quadrupled, rushing close to 200 million tokens.
As a result, the coin price showed no mercy and dropped a solid 13%.
They keep boasting about institutional adoption, but those subscriptions don't require buying $XRP on the secondary market at all.
Public chain infrastructure upgrades and token price fluctuations are completely separate matters.
The busier the chain, the more honest the sell orders on the order book.
#XRP
$XRP
👇I noticed that the focus of this message is on dividend realization: according to the MSX announcement, the current dividend distribution for 7 US stocks and ETF tokens has been completed, including $DELL at $0.63 per share, automatically issued based on the effective holdings at the registration time. This is somewhat interesting, but I wouldn't directly take it as a positive signal for the entire RWA sector. 👀
My judgment is that this is more meaningful for the credibility of tokenized stock products. Dividends arriving means users have concrete rights to verify; however, dividend realization does not prove sufficient trading liquidity. If the news stirs sentiment around related small tokens, I guess there could be a narrative diffusion opportunity, but high volatility can also easily hype product progress into valuation speculation, so these two should be viewed separately.
I will continue to observe whether the dividend distribution rules are clear, whether the arrival can be verified, as well as trading depth and spreads, rather than just focusing on dividend numbers. Which sub-sectors in RWA have you all been paying attention to recently, and do you value cash flow realization or trading liquidity more?#CoinbaseQ3净利润转正，交易收入同比降43%
"Coinbase's Net Profit Relies Entirely on Unrealized Gains"
Coinbase's Q3 report shows a net profit of $719 million, seemingly turning a profit after two consecutive quarters of losses, prompting many to call it a major turnaround.
However, a closer look reveals that $715 million of this is entirely due to the fair value revaluation of BTC and ETH holdings, while the main trading revenue dropped to $590 million, a year-on-year decrease of about 44%. The adjusted net profit is actually only $78 million.
Fortunately, the prediction market's annualized revenue has surpassed $200 million, and daily active traders increased by over 60% quarter-on-quarter. The fourth quarter will depend on whether new business can carry the weight. $BTC Coinbase's $719M GAAP profit looks decisive until the composition is examined: roughly $715M came from investment-asset gains, largely BTC and ETH fair-value revaluations. Adjusted income was $78M while trading revenue fell 44% year on year. Growing prediction-market activity is encouraging, but it does not yet settle the durability question.
#CoinbaseQ3ProfitReturns 20261030
1. Is the US stock market about to collapse?
1. AI stocks have surged crazily, now they can't rise anymore, even the tech leaders' new highs can't hold, Meta's earnings report caused a crash; money first withdraws from the stock market, then moves to crypto
2. Veteran trader Ansem also said: now being bullish on crypto has become a minority view, he hasn't seen such poor sentiment in nine years. But he only trades this wave of decline and plans to buy back after the drop
3. Watch when AI stocks stop falling; only when they stabilize will BTC and ETH have a bottom
2. The 2028 halving, who will mine?
1. This week Bitcoin's total transfer amount was $5.5 billion, miners received $185,000 in fees; miners don't rely on fees to survive, they depend on new coins issued by the system
2. Fees are less than 1% of income; the biggest problem is 2028: the free new coins will be cut in half, fees won't cover it, miners will have to shut down, and when miners shut down, transfers get stuck, effectively halting Bitcoin
3. Miners profit from the coin price minus electricity costs; as long as the spread exists, they keep mining; if not, they shut down. So the real bottom of the coin price is not shouted out by anyone, but reflected in miners' electricity bills
3. Many are waiting for BTC to break even
1. BTC has risen back seven times and fallen back seven times in 13 years
2. Each time it returns to the highest point, it falls 20% again within three months
3. The day it breaks even is the most dangerous
4. 870,000 coins waiting to be sold are pressing down on BTC
1. Bitfinex counted: around 82,500 addresses holding 874,000 coins trapped; if the price rises back, they could sell anytime
2. Even more troublesome isThe entire market is falling, but HYPE is strengthening against the trend. As of 15:08 Beijing time on 10/30, HYPE on OKX is quoted at 93.54, up about 18.3% in 24h, with an intraday high of 97.09, approaching the historical high of about 97.96 in September; CoinGecko reports a 24h total network volume of about $3.7 billion, ranking second in trending searches.
News: NYSE parent company ICE announced a partnership and equity investment with Trade[XYZ] to bring perpetual contracts from Hyperliquid into the compliant US market; Druckenmiller posted on X that he invested in Trade[XYZ], and Musk replied with "Interesting."
My view: The fact that it can go against the trend on the day of the Binance incident crash indicates that funds are looking for projects with real narratives. However, US products still await regulatory approval and have no launch date; after the positive news from Kraken in September, the price also surged and then fell back. For the push to previous highs, I am more focused on whether the volume can sustain. $HYPE #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ From Coinbase's stablecoin data in the third quarter report, it can be inferred that Circle's third quarter report data should exceed expectations! Last night I was still calculating how much margin had shrunk, and today the shorts started paying me rent.
DOGE climbed up from 0.0777, with each hourly close higher than the last, pushing to 0.0793. It didn’t surge, but it was consistent—the rebound didn’t retreat to the starting point after every step; the recovery from the lows was done in one go. BTC also reclaimed the 80,000 round number. The panic from yesterday’s dump didn’t continue today.
The most ironic thing is the forced liquidation data: 85% of those wiped out were shorts, and the funding rate is still at the 91st percentile over 90 days, clearly showing “long crowding.” Yesterday, shorts near 0.077 were paying to push prices down, pressing all night but not gaining more chips; today, it’s reversed, and longs are getting paid interest. What ran away was leverage, not money.
Binance also gave an explanation: a DevOps engineer’s laptop was hacked, affecting about $6.3 billion, but the SAFU fund plus their own capital covered it, with 3 billion frozen on-chain, so user funds are safe. Half of yesterday’s spike was scared out by the “exchange blowup” script.
But don’t pop the champagne yet. The macro hasn’t softened: the probability of a rate hike in December is 86.3%, and the US Treasury yield at 5.36% is still looming overhead.
My spot positions haven’t moved, nor have my 2x coin-margined longs. Now I only ask myself one question: if DOGE retests 0.0775 tomorrow, do I treat it as a second “shorts paying to push down” trap, or finally admit that yesterday’s line shouldn’t have been held? #英特尔Q4业绩指引低于预期，股价大跌 $BTC $DOGE $ETH $BTC $SOL On the macro front, the Fed's "no rate hike" was interpreted by the market as a hawkish signal. The October FOMC kept rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%, but the probability of a rate hike in December has risen to 86%, with two officials voting against the hike. After the FOMC announcement, BTC dropped from around 80,800 and then further broke below $78,000. The 30-day options skew remains at 14%, with put options continuously trading at a premium, indicating the market is pricing in downside risk with real money.
On the event front, Binance's hot wallets suffered a large-scale attack, triggering panic selling. Multiple hot wallets showed abnormal outflows involving over 60 assets, with an estimated on-chain outflow of about $5.3 billion to $5.6 billion. Binance urgently suspended deposits and withdrawals and promised full compensation. The SAFU fund holds about 15,000 BTC (approximately $1 billion) to provide some buffer. This event, combined with the macro hawkish tone, amplified short-term selling pressure.
ETFs have seen net inflows for three consecutive days. On October 29, the Bitcoin spot ETF had net inflows of about $137 million, with a total inflow of about $424 million over the last three trading days. Single-day data also showed a net inflow of 1,684 BTC (about $135 million).Intel’s Q3 revenue and operating margin improved, but a weaker Q4 outlook put PC demand and supply constraints in focus.
Results released on Oct 29 included:
• Revenue: $16.5B, up 21% YoY
• GAAP diluted EPS: $0.60
• Non-GAAP diluted EPS: $0.52
• GAAP operating margin: 15.3%, versus 5.0% a year earlier
The earnings picture was mixed. GAAP net income attributable to Intel fell 18% to $3.3B, while non-GAAP net income rose 169% to $2.8B. Operating improvement and a decline in reported net income can coexist; the measures capture different aspects of performance.
Intel said revenue, gross margin and EPS exceeded its own guidance. CNBC also reported non-GAAP EPS above the $0.40 LSEG estimate. The concern was less about that result than what comes next.
The business mix shows why. Data Center and AI revenue rose 78% to $7.3B, while Client Computing and Physical AI revenue fell 5% to $8.1B. Management described data center growth as its strongest in 15 years and prioritized expanding Xeon supply.
Server demand and PC demand are moving differently. Strong orders are one part of the story; available production capacity determines how quickly Intel can turn them into shipments.
For Q4, Intel forecasts:
• Revenue: $15B-$16B
• Non-GAAP EPS: $0.25
Both were below LSEG estimates of $17.1B and $0.43, according to CNBC. Shares fell more than 20% in extended trading after the release.
Management expects the PC slowdown to last through at least H1 2027. An extended shutdown at an Israeli fab is also affecting 10-nanometer chip shipments, adding a supply constraint to the demand challenge.
Intel generated $5.1B in operating cash flow in Q3. That provides funding context, although it is distinct from free cash flow after capital spending.
The next quarter will test whether server momentum and better operating execution can offset softer PC demand and shipment disruptions.
Can Intel’s data center growth help it navigate the weaker Q4 outlook?
#IntelQ4OutlookMiss Hongmei Capital | Trading Diary | Triple Divergence $ETH
NO.033 | 2026.10.30
【ETH's big plunge on 10.7 was all foretold. Looking back, in the previous rally, during the uptrend, a triple divergence warned of weakening upward momentum, followed by a 12-day sideways consolidation, then a waterfall drop starting at 10:00 AM on 10.7, plunging nearly 150 points.】
ETH-USDT-SWAP, daily level review. This main rally hit new price highs, then stalled sideways at a high level for about 12 trading days; price remained elevated, but MACD, RSI, and CCI all showed declining peak values simultaneously, forming a classic triple top divergence.
This sideways phase was not a bullish accumulation but a distribution window where bullish support gradually weakened, with upward trend momentum fading first. Daily-level divergence signals carry significant weight but serve only as bearish warnings, not direct signals to top-pick; confirmation to enter requires short-term moving averages to turn down and a breakout from the consolidation range. If volume later surges to break previous highs with indicators strengthening simultaneously, the divergence is invalidated.
Insight: Distinguish between continuation consolidation and distribution consolidation; the key is not whether price falls but whether momentum indicators follow price. Large-cycle resonance divergence is an important clue for cross-asset synchronized bearish positioning.
Market review and analysis do not constitute trading advice!
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $ETH rebounds after a sharp drop! Is this a real stabilization or just a pause in the downtrend?
ETH suddenly plunged from around 2330 yesterday, hitting a low of 2172.85, then rebounded to around 2247 today. This drop was indeed severe, but I believe it's too early to be bearish to the end, nor should we assume a trend reversal just because of a rebound of several dozen points. There is a short-term need for a rebound repair, but the overall trend remains weak. The 2255–2260 range is the most important decision zone for bulls and bears going forward.
The previous upward structure has been broken, and the current rebound has not truly reversed the trend. Although MACD shows some recovery, the red bars are starting to shorten, indicating a slowdown in rebound momentum. Looking at open interest, there was a significant decline during the sharp drop, indicating many leveraged positions have been cleared. During the rebound, open interest has not noticeably recovered, so there is no clear signal of a strong return of bulls yet.
Aggressive traders can watch around 2235–2245 and enter directly if a stop-fall signal appears; conservative traders should wait for a solid hold at 2255–2260 and consider entry after a pullback confirmation.
On the upside, first watch 2270–2280, and after a breakout, look at 2290–2305. On the short side, if the rebound fails to break through 2255–2260 and shows clear resistance, consider short-term positioning with targets first at 2235, then 2210.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 🔍 Is this wave of growth a result of sustained accumulation, or a sudden acceleration in the last day? The clue I found is: According to DefiLlama, the main liquid staking protocol stHYPE on Hyperliquid L1 has a TVL of about $212 million, with a weekly increase of 22.7% and a single-day increase of 17.5%.
An interesting detail here: the single-day increase is nearly as much as the entire week's increase. I think this looks more like an anomaly worth tracking rather than evidence of sustained strength. First, the growth pace is concentrated and cannot be directly extrapolated; second, TVL is also affected by token price, so on-paper expansion does not equal new capital recognition.
This is my speculation: if the increase is mainly driven by short-term price changes, then its explanatory power for user demand is limited. Let's not rush to conclusions; I will continue to monitor the TVL changes over the next few days and look for data that can separate price impact from net inflows.Today's market drop is confusing to many: obviously the stolen assets were from Binance's Ethereum hot wallet, so why did Solana and a bunch of altcoins crash the hardest?
The answer is darkly ironic: because the market makers had their internet cut off by the exchange.
Once Binance ran into trouble, withdrawals were suspended. But most market makers and quant funds in this space have their major capital locked in Binance. Unable to withdraw now, margin calls elsewhere are urgent, so to avoid liquidation, they are forced to frantically dump assets on other exchanges to withdraw funds.
What's worse, the hacker took hundreds of thousands of ETH and authorized it on Aave, scaring Aave into freezing the V3 market on the spot, fearing trouble.
See, the hacker hasn't spent the money yet but has already scared the DeFi protocols; big holders can't withdraw funds and end up liquidating retail traders' positions. This is what they call "gods fighting, little devils suffer."
Don't think Binance is so big and rich that it can afford to lose without consequences. The market is honest; the chain reaction of liquidations still has some way to go.#StrategyQ3净利润创单季新高，数字资产收益贡献显著 I'm bullish 🔥 BTC, ETH, and SOL long borrowings are rising simultaneously! However, prices continue to weaken, beware of a concentrated long leverage sell-off!
🔴 BTC: Long borrowings at 1363.3 BTC, short borrowings only 73.05 BTC, a clear imbalance between longs and shorts, with long positions relatively crowded.
🟠 ETH: Long borrowings at 16,800 coins, short borrowings at 742.8 coins; longs are increasing positions, but prices are not strengthening accordingly, facing short-term pressure.
🟢 SOL: Long borrowings at 110,700 coins, short borrowings at 3,085.99 coins, also showing a concentrated long position phenomenon.
🔵 Macro impact: US September core PCE rose to 3.1%, inflationary pressure remains, rate hike expectations are heating up, which may suppress risk asset performance.
📌 Personal judgment: What needs caution now is not just the imbalance between longs and shorts, but that longs continue to add positions even as prices fall. Once key support is broken, it may trigger a chain of stop-losses and forced liquidations, amplifying short-term declines. However, borrow data does not equal actual holdings and cannot alone determine market direction.
⚠️ Trading reminder: Do not blindly bottom-fish, do not short just because longs are crowded; focus on observing price, volume, and liquidation changes.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Descending triangle breakdown (horizontal support weakens with each test, breakdown often leads to a waterfall, only trade after downward breakdown)
$BTC: If the 75,800 average cost support is effectively broken, the descending triangle is confirmed, with downside target at the 70,000 round number. Resistance at 78,607; support at 75,800, 70,000.
$ENA: Hacker still holds about 217 million tokens (approximately $39.51 million), horizontal support repeatedly tested, high risk of breakdown. Resistance at 0.18; support at 0.15, 0.13.
$PEPE: Hacker holds about 7.58 trillion tokens (approximately $34.41 million), meme coin liquidity is thin, prone to waterfall after descending triangle breakdown. Resistance at 0.0000045; support at 0.0000038.Amazon's Q3 makes the AI infrastructure trade-off unusually visible. AWS grew 39.3% to $45.984B, its fastest pace in nearly five years, yet Q3 capex hit $75.9B and trailing 12-month free cash flow was negative $42.4B.
That does not invalidate the growth story; it raises the bar for proving that today's spending can convert into durable cloud demand rather than a costly race for capacity.
#AmazonQ3AWSAccelerates The market these past few days has been really headache-inducing. Everyone was originally hoping $BTC could make a decent rally in October, even pushing towards 100,000 dollars. But from around 86,000 at the start of the month, it has fallen all the way to 82,000, a dense chip area that once broken, breaks easily. This morning it directly fell below 77,000, completely blowing the bulls' minds.
Now the 79,000 level above has turned from support into resistance, with all trapped positions above. Today's rebound feels more like a bull trap. This month is another tough one. Sigh $ETH $SOL #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #加密行业协同守护资产安全 #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 The busier the trading, the not necessarily more profitable it is for liquidity providers; this was my first reaction when I saw this news. According to The Defiant, Uniswap's single-day trading volume exceeded $5.97 billion, with Ethereum contributing $4.22 billion; trading activity on PancakeSwap, Curve, and Raydium also increased.
What I care more about is how much profit this wave of volume can leave behind. Increased transactions bring fees, but the actual earnings depend on which pool the volume falls into and how much liquidity shares it. On the other hand, there is risk: my guess is that if the volume surge is accompanied by significant price shifts, some liquidity providers' impermanent loss may also expand, and fees may not fully compensate.
Therefore, I wouldn't take this trading volume report directly as good news for market-making profits. What I want to see next is whether the fee income of popular pools can cover the risks they bear. xINTC is trading at $71.08.
* 24-Hour Range: The price reached a high of $93.58 and dropped to a low of $69.73.
Looking Back at Past Ups and Downs
* Earlier in the month around October 4, 2026, the price was riding high near $125.92.
* Following that peak, the chart shows a steady downward path as moving averages crossed over and sellers took control.
* Recently, heavy selling volume pushed the price into a deep dive down to the $69.73 Looking at this OKB chart, the price is currently at 112.83 USDT after bouncing from a recent low of 106.00. Earlier this month, it hit a high of 143.32 before dropping down, showing a strong steady decline through mid-October. Right now, it looks like it is trying to turn around with a small green daily gain of 2.96 percent. Looking at past ups and downs, big drops usually lead to a short recovery phase before another clear direction is chosen. My best all-time prediction is that if it breaks Calculating, the locked funds of stHYPE a week ago were about $173 million, approximately $39 million less than now. This increase on paper is significant, but I wouldn't directly count it as new funds added to Hyperliquid L1, nor would I judge that the entire chain is heating up based on this.
① According to DefiLlama, the liquidity staking protocol stHYPE, mainly located on Hyperliquid L1, currently has a TVL of about $212 million. This measures the locked scale of a single protocol, not the total funds of the entire chain, so we need to clarify the scope before discussing the hype.
② TVL increased by about 22.7% over the week, which is how the initial increment was derived. The data also shows that TVL is influenced by token prices, so an increase in scale alone cannot prove a simultaneous rise in staking demand.
③ The single-day change was +17.5%, overlapping in time with the weekly increase. I wouldn’t treat these two increases as two independent pieces of evidence to double-count the judgment of "capital inflow."
My judgment is: this news is enough to put stHYPE on the watchlist but not enough to upgrade it to a positive conclusion for the entire ecosystem. What I fear most when looking at data is that the units are correct but the objects have changed. If actual fund inflows and outflows can be broken down later, then the judgment on demand will be more solid. When you usually assess the quality of growth in staking protocols, which indicator do you value most? Given this news, what additional data would you want to add?0x24e370…6684b opened a 40x short on $BTC with a position of 0.5 BTC. What caught my attention is not the direction, but the room left for volatility. 👀
This is quite interesting, but while volatility amplifies profits, it also compresses the margin for error correction. Roughly calculated without fees, a reverse volatility of about 2.5% would wipe out the initial margin. I will observe whether they reduce leverage later, rather than treating this short as a top signal.
What tracks has everyone been paying attention to recently? Would you give up high leverage due to excessive volatility? Posted this move on $BTC
I got a lot of hate as usual 😇
But it almost played out perfectly. $73k-$76k are the levels to hold out. I opted for DCA, bcz market will regain (manipulate) Binance pre-hack levels. $81.1k is still the most important level for Bullish Bias
Buying On Dips ⌛🕯️