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Why is Google's plunge this time so terrifying?
Let's first look at several major single-day drops in history:
1. March 16, 2020, -11.63%: The pandemic triggered a US stock market circuit breaker, with the Dow dropping nearly 13%
2. September 29, 2008, -11.6%: Congress rejected the bailout plan, and Google's stock price fell below $400
3. October 26, 2022, -9.14%: Q3 earnings showed simultaneous slowdowns in advertising and YouTube
4. October 25, 2023, -9.51%: Q3 earnings themselves were not bad, but cloud business growth lagged market expectations
5. October 29, 2026 pre-market, -11.47%: AI capital expenditures are consuming free cash flow, raising market concerns about extended return cycles.
The pattern is clear
In 2022, 2023, and 2026, all three were valuation hits triggered by earnings reports. Advertising, cloud, AI—each burns more cash than the last.
What the market truly fears is not how much less is earned this quarter, but that Google is staking both cash flow and profit margins on AI.
More importantly, AI infrastructure is not a one-time investment but requires continuous heavy spending. No matter how fast the business grows, if it cannot be converted into profits and free cash flow in time, the market may not buy it.
This is the most realistic side of AI investment: everyone can see growth, but returns must be proven by performance.
So this plunge looks more like the market is preemptively repricing "high AI investment, low immediate returns."
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 🍻 Brothers, back to check the market after drinking!
ZEC is currently at 1277. With PCE released, BTC is playing dead at 80300, yet ZEC surprisingly resists the trend. Is this a support or a bull trap?
📊 1. Market Breakdown
1. Macro: Crude oil fell below 101, BTC dipped to 80,000 then rebounded, completing a double kill of bulls and bears.
2. Market: ZEC faces a strong resistance at 1287 above and a critical support at 1260 below. The main force is neither pushing high nor letting go low, just shaking out positions.
🔮 2. Market Outlook
Short term is likely to range between 1260-1287. If the market breaks below 80,000, ZEC may follow with a drop breaking through 1260.
🛡️ 3. Trading Rules
⚠️ Current price 1277 is a meat grinder, avoid chasing market orders!
🟢 Long: Volume breakout and hold above 1287, light long positions on pullback to 1282 if not broken, target 1300.
🔴 Short:
1. Light short on rejection at 1285, stop loss at 1292, target 1265.
2. Short on breakdown below 1260 with weak rebound, target 1250.
🚨 The above strategies and analysis are for reference only #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 $ETH Direction: Short
· Entry: Light short position when rebound is resisted around 2360 - 2370.
· Stop Loss: Firm stop loss if it breaks above 2392 (above previous high).
· Take Profit: First target 2320, second target 2300.
⚠️ Note: There was just an extremely violent straight surge, which is a counter-trend top test with very high risk. Do not chase shorts directly; be sure to wait for confirmation of resistance at high levels, enter very lightly, and exit quickly.Brothers, another long-established big institution is playing a new game. Franklin Templeton has directly launched two hybrid ETFs, combining US stocks with Bitcoin $BTC, listed on Nasdaq. 95% of the money is used to buy US stocks, leaving only 5% of the position for Bitcoin. And it has a very key feature: the dividends from the stocks are automatically used to buy more Bitcoin, which means a continuous stream of buying pressure for Bitcoin. Every quarter, the portfolio is rebalanced to ensure Bitcoin remains a supporting player and never takes the lead. This is different from the pure BTC ETFs we had before. Pure Bitcoin ETFs are specifically betting on the price fluctuations of the coin; this product is designed for traditional investors who already buy US stocks, so they don’t need to open a separate account and can conveniently add some Bitcoin. It’s like opening a low-threshold entry channel for a large group of conservative old money. Of course, we shouldn’t hype this as a huge positive right away. Initially, only 5% is allocated, so the incremental impact from a single fund won’t explode. But the key point is the signal: more and more established funds are starting to treat Bitcoin as a normal asset allocation option in their portfolios, no longer seeing it as a fringe or shady asset. The downside is also obvious: these funds are tied to US stocks. If the US stock market crashes, even if Bitcoin itself has no negative news, it will be sold off along with the stocks. Going forward, Bitcoin’s correlation with US stocks will only get tighter. In the short term, don’t expect this news to directly trigger a market surge, but over the long term, as more of these products emerge, it will gradually integrate traditional marketsSolana is under attack, and the tokenized US tech stocks didn't fare well either
$SUI down 0.47%, xMSFT up 2.19%, xSKHY down 1.04%.
This group spans two fronts: public chains and tokenized US tech stocks. SUI's issues are similar to SOL's; as the hype around AI and meme in the ecosystem fades, the token price deflates accordingly, making it an emotion-driven player.
The slight rise in $xMSFT is interesting. Microsoft's earnings just came out; although AI capital expenditure was criticized by the market as burning money, the stock price held up well, and the on-chain Microsoft token benefited from this.
$xSKHY is a hydrogen energy stock, falling only slightly, basically neither hyped nor dumped—just lukewarm. The takeaway from grouping these is: after tokenized stocks launched, crypto players can trade US stock sentiment around the clock for the first time, so the crypto market's volatility rhythm is now being influenced by the US stock market. Previously, we watched BTC's mood; in the future, we might have to watch Nasdaq first. After reading, I noted three things. What made me pause the most was the 5x leverage, not how large the position amount was; I’m used to filling in the risk section first, then looking at the direction.
1. This monitoring shows Core Trader 12 going long on $LIT with 5x leverage, nominal position about $503,700. I don’t take a “large position” as a bullish reason because I don’t know the total assets of this wallet. The same amount could be a test position for one account or already very heavy for another.
2. 5x doesn’t sound extreme, but roughly calculating with unchanged margin and ignoring fees, if the price moves 10% against the position, the loss relative to the initial margin is about 50%. This is not the actual liquidation line, just a reminder: leverage amplifies price fluctuations into capital pressure, and “not reaching liquidation” doesn’t mean low risk.
3. I want to know the exit conditions more than rushing to guess why they bought. This data has no stop loss or hedging info, so my judgment is: it proves there is capital willing to go long, but it’s not enough to prove the trade’s risk is controllable, nor can it replace my entry decision.
For this checklist, I first note position ratio, leverage amplification, and exit conditions. What would everyone add as a fourth point: margin mode, or whether there is a hedging position? Bitcoin and Ethereum's oscillations are approaching a critical point. BTC is locked in the $79,000 to $85,000 range, with the $85,000 level repeatedly blocking upward momentum, and the $79,100–$79,300 range repeatedly holding support. $ETH is consolidating around $2,300, with $2,400–$2,440 as immediate resistance and the $2,470–$2,520 supply zone awaiting a breakout.
Signals of a trend change are accumulating. If $BTC forms a W bottom on the hourly chart and breaks above the $80,507 neckline with volume, the rebound could open up towards $81,000–$82,000; a daily close above $85,000 would confirm the rebound. For ETH, holding above $2,310 is a prerequisite, and breaking $2,440 could trigger short liquidations, accelerating a move toward $2,500.
The end of the oscillation still requires a catalyst. The Fed decision has been mostly priced in, but the probability of a rate hike in December remains above 70%, with midterm elections and earnings season approaching. Low volatility won't last, and directional choices often happen when most are complacent. BTC holding $79,000 and ETH holding $2,300 indicate the bulls and bears balance is quietly tipping toward a breakout side.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 PCE did not bring positive news: Core PCE year-on-year rose back to 3.1%, BTC surged to 81,788 then fell back to 80,700, December rate hike probability at 84.6%.
Last night the Fed held steady at 3.75%—4.00%, with 10-2 votes and 2 votes for a rate hike. BTC surged to 81,698 on decision night then slid to 79,636.
Tonight September PCE released: overall month-on-month +0.5%, year-on-year 3.6%, core month-on-month +0.3%, year-on-year 3.1%, meeting expectations but year-on-year rose again; Q3 GDP +3.4% also exceeded expectations.
BTC ETF net inflow yesterday was $137 million, totaling $424 million over three consecutive days, but $136 million all went into IBIT alone; ETH ETF had a net outflow of $21.41 million the same day.
My view: Data does not disprove the rate hike path; the inflow is all supported by IBIT alone, which does not count as institutional return, just a tug-of-war above 80,000.
My approach: Watch only, no chasing; only consider buyers returning if the close holds above 81,700; if it breaks below 79,600 and fails to recover, consider the 80,000 anchor loosened.
The above is just personal observation and record, not investment advice.
After PCE release, do you bet BTC will first hold above 81,700 or break below 79,600?
$BTC $ETH $IBIT
#FedHoldSteady #BitcoinETFFOMC news has successfully landed, currently ETH is priced around $2,320. After the decision, it briefly plunged to $2,313, with a buy-sell ratio of only 0.46, and the sell wall thickness is more than twice that of the buy wall.
FOMC kept interest rates unchanged, but 2 votes opposed and advocated a 25bp rate hike. The statement raised growth to "strong," and the inflation wording shifted from supporting strengthening to ensuring it, marking a hawkish pause in tone. However, during the press conference, Waller refused to give a clear path, and the market instead interpreted it as less hawkish. The dollar plunged sharply, the probability of a rate hike in December remains pinned at 85%, and short-term pressure has not increased further for now.
Technical divergence between bulls and bears: daily MACD death cross, RSI at 37, but 4-hour level shows volume at the bottom, Bollinger lower band at $2,310 tested multiple times without breaking, bearish momentum is waning. $2,293 is the last line of defense currently; if broken, it directly exposes $2,200–$2,280. On the upside, if $2,350–$2,391 is not reclaimed, the rebound is just an oversold correction. $2,425 is the true watershed to reverse the weakness.
The real drag comes from the supply side: ETF net outflow in October was about $1.35 billion, with 17 out of 20 trading days seeing outflows; meanwhile, more than 10 long-term dormant wallets transferred out about 56,000 ETH, with four largest transfers directly to Coinbase and Kraken, including a single 2015 ICO whale transfer of 13,330 ETH. Whether $2,293 can hold is more decisive for the short-term direction than the FOMC wording.Why did HYPE suddenly surge?
With the New York Stock Exchange parent company ICE collaboration landing, Hyperliquid is expected to enter the compliant US derivatives market; combined with fee buyback deflation and Bitwise ETF capital inflow, the platform's commodity contract trading volume has increased, fueling speculative expectations.#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Amazon after-hours earnings: Is this drop a trap or an opportunity?
Let's talk about the market first: AMZN is currently at 245.34, down 3.64%, with a trading volume of 3.062 billion. Before the earnings report, this move basically means some funds are reducing risk early and don't want to gamble naked in after-hours.
Tonight, the market is focused on four things: AWS growth and profit margin, advertising growth, retail fulfillment costs, capital expenditures, and Q4 guidance.
The highlights are most likely still AWS and advertising, as these two are the profit engines; on the retail side, it's about whether fulfillment efficiency continues to improve. The real mood killer is capital expenditures—AI spending is huge, and the market will focus on free cash flow.
On the options side, implied volatility definitely rises before earnings, betting on big after-hours swings in both directions, not a one-sided move. I don't blindly guess up or down; buying naked options is easily harvested by IV, spreads are more stable.
After hours, first watch if AWS holds steady and if guidance collapses. If capital expenditures hit hard but AWS and advertising are fine, then watch for a pullback tomorrow to see if it holds.Dear, Star Boss Xu's tweet, Moonlight thinks it's worth studying carefully
ICE plans to introduce the perpetual contracts of Trade[XYZ] in the Hyperliquid ecosystem into the US regulated market, and will distribute them through a joint venture channel with OKX @OKX中文
What particularly interests me about this is that the on-chain trading products we are familiar with are starting to have the opportunity to enter markets built by traditional financial institutions
Each of the three parties clearly brings something!
ICE provides regulatory and clearing infrastructure, Trade[XYZ] brings on-chain perpetual product experience, and OKX connects trading technology and user networks
People in the crypto circle may be used to 24/7 trading in crypto markets, but for traditional finance to accommodate this 24/7 product form, there are details behind such as clearing, risk control, and regulation, and many links need coordination
OKX being explicitly written into the distribution link is a part that Moonlight pays special attention to
Because this also indicates that the cooperation has already started to involve specific products and trading channels
What do you think, how will the on-chain perpetual trading experience integrate into the regulated financial market next? The wallet used for Solana trading in the FOMO app only made a 10% profit after fees. I feel a bit discouraged too, but using this to claim that basically no one makes money playing Solana—isn't that a stretch? The users of this app are not the same as all the players on the entire chain. I'd like to see how long the statistics cover and how the fees are calculated. Just this headline almost makes me feel like quitting the scene.Are the rebounders still stubborn? $BTC eyes 79,220, $ETH targets 2,282, $ZEC may retest 1,049
BTC is currently around 80,312 USDT, with the daily EMA7 at 80,710 and EMA25 at 82,216, price still suppressed by the mid-term moving averages; the MACD death cross has persisted for 30 daily candles, and today's volume is only 0.64 times the 7-day average volume. Around 79,220 is the low point of the past 30 days; repeated retests are not "the bottom getting more stable with each test," but rather the continuous consumption of support. Those who talk bullish but don't act bullish, and those who talk bearish must open short positions; people who mistake a low-volume rebound for a reversal often end up becoming liquidity themselves.
ETH is around 2,326 USDT, EMA7 at 2,348, EMA25 at 2,448, daily chart still shows weak moving average divergence; RSI(6) has fallen from 40.11 to 31.39, price is near the lower Bollinger Band indicating weak oscillation. The 30-day decline has reached -13.47%, yet many still use "oversold" as an excuse for blind bottom-fishing. Oversold has never been a promise of a bottom, and a low-volume pullback is not a trend recovery; when 2,282 USDT is tested again, the fantasy of bulls holding positions will truly be put to the test.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $BTC $ETH $SOL 【Market Real-Time Quotes】$BTC is consolidating around 81,290, $ETH is slightly adjusting around 2,360, and the overall market remains sideways after the Federal Reserve's decision. The Fear & Greed Index is 51, neutral. Innovation by traditional financial institutions in crypto infrastructure has not slowed down despite the market stagnation. 👇 First, let's see how this "hybrid ETF" actually works: 📈 Product Structure: Franklin Templeton announced the launch of two ETFs to be listed on Nasdaq—FBEQ and FIBT. The initial allocation is 95% U.S. stocks + 5% $BTC. 💰 Core Mechanism: DRIP (Dividend Reinvestment Plan): Cash dividends generated by underlying stocks are systematically reinvested into $BTC. The index evaluates Bitcoin exposure quarterly and maintains it at a minor allocation (about 5%) through rules. 🏷️ Segment Focus: FBEQ covers about 500 of the largest U.S. companies with an ultra-low fee of only 0.09%; FIBT covers 100 large non-financial companies in the Nasdaq 100 with a fee of 0.19%. Why is this product so attractive to traditional capital as a "dimensionality reduction strike"? In the past, if you wanted to allocate Bitcoin, you either had to open an exchange account to buy spot or buy a pure Bitcoin ETF in a U.S. stock account. Both methods require you to actively decide "I want to trade crypto." But Franklin Templeton's design directly bypasses this psychological barrier. For traditional investors seeking stability #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 我认为，Strategy本次财报最值得关注的，不只是比特币上涨带来的账面收益反弹，而是公司持仓成本、融资能力以及持续增持BTC的策略能否继续支撑其估值。 作为全球最受关注的比特币财库公司之一，Strategy的业绩与BTC价格高度相关。当比特币反弹时，公司持有的BTC公允价值可能随之上升，推动账面业绩改善；但这并不意味着账面收益能够直接转化为现金流。 接下来重点关注三个方面： 1. BTC反弹带来的账面收益 比特币价格回升，有望改善公司的账面表现，但最终影响取决于报告期内的价格变化及适用的会计处理。 2. 融资能力决定增持空间 Strategy能否继续通过股票发行、可转换债券等方式筹集资金，并以合理的融资成本增持BTC，将直接影响其长期战略的可持续性。 3. 股价溢价与风险控制 如果市场持续给予Strategy高于其比特币净资产价值的估值溢价，公司融资和增持可能形成正向循环；但如果溢价收缩，甚至出现折价，融资效率就可能下降。 我的核心观点是：BTC上涨可以改善Strategy的账面表现，但真正决定其长期价值的，是比特币价格、融资成本$INTC reported a GAAP loss of $2.16 per share last quarter, while non-GAAP earnings were $0.42. The difference between the two figures is 2.58, with the largest adjustment line in the reconciliation table called “(Gains) losses on mark-to-market of Escrowed Shares,” amounting to $2.45 per share. These escrowed shares are described in the press release footnote as follows: Escrowed Shares refer to shares of Intel common stock held in escrow to be released to the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) as we perform and receive cash proceeds in connection with our CHIPS Act Secure Enclave agreement with the U.S. Government. Intel is receiving funds from the CHIPS Act and must deliver a portion of its own stock to the U.S. Department of Commerce in installments. Before delivery, these shares are held in an escrow account and recorded as a liability, which is revalued according to Intel’s own stock price. In the second quarter, Intel’s stock price surged, increasing the liability and resulting in a large loss recorded under GAAP. When the stock price rises, GAAP shows a loss—this is how the accounting is done. DOGE in the coming week: How far can the rebound go?
DOGE has recently recovered, but a rebound does not equal a trend reversal. In the short term, watch 0.08087: if it breaks through and holds steady on the 4-hour chart, and BTC strengthens simultaneously, DOGE has a chance to continue testing higher; if it rallies then falls back, pay attention to 0.07737. After breaking support, it is unwise to judge a bottom solely based on "falling enough."
On the news front, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.75%–4%, while noting inflation remains high; the US Q3 GDP preliminary annualized growth is 3.4%, and the September PCE price index rose 3.6% year-over-year. My understanding is that economic resilience supports risk assets, but inflation may also suppress rate cut expectations, making the market prone to fluctuations.
This week's strategy is to wait for confirmation, not to guess direction: watch for volume breakout and whether pullbacks hold on the upside; watch for continued weakness if support fails on the downside. DOGE is highly volatile, especially when using contract leverage, so controlling position size is more important than pursuing "precise predictions." The above is a scenario analysis and does not guarantee results. $BTC $ETH $DOGE #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 As soon as the news of entering the US market came out, HYPE surged 15% in response, breaking through all moving averages including MA7, MA20, and MA60, officially entering an uptrend cycle.
But while everyone is praising $HYPE, my $SOL actually took a heavy hit.
The main issue for Solana is not the price drop, but that its once 17% share of on-chain perpetual contract trading volume has been eroded by HYPE, now down to only 5% 😂
The trading share of meme coins has similarly been divided by competitors like Robinhood, and the leading position has fallen from a commanding lead to a precarious state.
SOL’s price is also much weaker than HYPE’s, nearly breaking below the 100 whole number level, with the daily RSI at 35 indicating deep oversold conditions, and it is pressured below the 20/50-day moving averages (104-109). It needs to reclaim 110 to be considered strong again.
Although $BTC has also fallen, it is at least a fluctuating decline, and the 7.9 bottom is quite stable. It can be expected that even if the 3rd is bearish news, the MA200 at 76,000 will provide support. The resistance lines of MA20 and MA50 are also not far away, and it is estimated that recovery will occur by mid-November.$INJ: ETF Hype Faded. Dip or Trap?
INJ surged 27% on ETF news, hit $9.10+, then pulled back toward $8.00.
📍 Support: $7.30
🚧 Resistance: $8.40 → $9.10
📈 Bullish: Reclaim $8.40, target $9.10–$11.40.
📉 Bearish: Lose $7.30, risk further downside.
🎯 Trade idea: $7.70–$7.95 entry | $7.25 stop | $8.40–$9.10 targets.
My Take: Strong narrative, weak follow-through. ETF filings remain pending. Don't chase the hype—wait for confirmation.
Would you buy the dip or stay out?
#DailyOrbit
$INJ Uniswap quietly launched a feature called TJAR, an abstract name but a significant development.
Simply put: Previously, the fees collected by the protocol and applications were stored in the same tokens they were received in, mixing various tokens in the treasury. When token prices fluctuated, no one could clearly say how much money was actually on the books. Now, TJAR can automatically convert these revenues into stablecoins, $ETH, or the project's own $UNI according to preset rules.
What does this mean?
First, the treasury becomes cleaner. Income is no longer piled up as a mix of illiquid, volatile tokens but is consolidated into directly usable assets, making the books more transparent.
Second, buybacks and incentives have real ammunition. If the protocol's earnings can be stably converted into $UNI or stablecoins, the path for token value capture is much shorter, eliminating the need for manual scheduling or timing the market.
Third, the signal is more important than the function itself. Uniswap is turning "how to handle income" from a financial operation into a protocol-level rule, a standard move toward "cash flow assets." Whoever has a stable income structure has more confidence when being priced by capital.
Of course, stay calm: automatic conversion is just a tool; the real determinant of $UNI's price is still trading volume and fee scale. No matter how good the tool is, if income doesn't increase, it won't help.
But the direction is right—on-chain protocols are finally starting to manage money like companies.$ETH at its current position, frankly, is just dull. Short-term is weak and oscillating; you can trade swings, but don't expect any big moves.
No rate hike in October, the market has already priced that in, so it's not exactly good news. The troublesome part is what Wash said—his hawkish tone is uncomfortable. Nobody dares to guarantee whether there will be a hike in December. Plus, with the midterm elections on November 3 looming, institutions are very likely to avoid betting on direction for now, and capital is clearly conservative.
So strategically, when the trend is weak, I prefer to first take a short-term short position. The initial target is 2300, then see if 2290 can hold. If it holds, I’ll reverse to go long; if not, I’ll keep watching. In a choppy market, both long and short trades are fine; the key is whether your entry point feels comfortable enough.
$BTC and $ZEC are the same—don’t rush to chase, wait for the right position. Patience is more valuable than judgment at times like this.Today's economic data basically met expectations, including PCE 3.1. In that case, Bitcoin might stabilize around 8, although I am bearish, it won't drop that quickly; it will take some time to decline.
According to my own analysis, today or tomorrow, Bitcoin will surge to the previous high near 818. If it’s strong, it might directly hit 827 before falling, or it might reach the 818-810 range, then pull back to around 795, surge to 827, and then decline.
My recent overall strategy is to go long whenever it drops to around 800-795, while also adding to spot Bitcoin. As long as it can surge near 827, I will heavily short and close positions in the 790-780 range.
Currently, Bitcoin’s trend has formed a bullish pattern. My short positions closed and long positions are already profitable. I’m holding on to see if the longs can reach the target.
The probability of a Fed rate hike in December is high. Rate hikes might cause a drop, but we need to observe the economic data and global capital flows over the next two months. If GDP remains strong, the rate hike could actually push Bitcoin up to around 100,000.Today, Taurus directly integrated Stellar's smart contract assets into the institutional system: the custody platform Taurus-PROTECT and the tokenization platform Taurus-CAPITAL simultaneously launched Soroban support. Banks and financial institutions can custody, issue, and manage these types of assets within the same interface and API without changing their infrastructure.
PROTECT is responsible for custody and management of Soroban tokens, providing wallet support and a full set of governance and operational controls; CAPITAL handles the full lifecycle issuance and management, supporting token issuance, smart contract function calls, and parameter processing. It covers SEP-41 contract tokens, Stellar asset contracts, OpenZeppelin contracts, and compliance-oriented ERC-3643 assets, namely SEP-57. This integration is not new: in 2024, both platforms were already launched on Stellar, and in 2025, Taurus collaborated with the Stellar Development Foundation and Turbo Energy to use CAPITAL for tokenizing renewable energy project financing.
Personally, I think the real highlight this time is that institutions can use compliant asset structures on Stellar without changing tools. If securities and funds assets really take off, other custodians will likely have to catch up.
Will banks be the first to issue securities and funds on Stellar or$ETH's recent short position clearly demonstrated the "top-touching" strategy. A 100x short position yielded a steady floating profit of +206.44%.
The logic is simple: above 2370 is a previous heavy chip concentration area, with multiple failed attempts to break through. I decisively shorted at 2370.6, anticipating the bulls' exhaustion.
The price moved as expected, with the mark price falling to 2321.66. With 100x leverage, this nearly 50-point range is already impressive. Although there were some wicks in between, as long as the structure wasn't broken, I held firmly.
Reviewing the trade, the core signal was the high-level volume contraction and stagnation. Currently, profits are substantial; the primary task is to protect the gains, and a trailing stop defense is in place. $ZEC $BTC $MSTR The company's profit for this quarter was already disclosed by itself in the 8-K on October 5. Strategy estimates that, for the three months ended September 30, 2026, it had: a $20.91 billion gain on digital assets; and a $1.88 billion associated deferred tax expense. Digital asset income was $20.91 billion, with a corresponding deferred income tax of $1.88 billion. As of September 30, it held 847,666 bitcoins, with a book value of $70.82 billion, equivalent to about $83,547 per coin. There is significant divergence in consensus expectations. Among the 9 firms included by Alpha Vantage, the average is 17.98, the highest is 52.82, and the lowest is negative 0.99. Some analysts updated based on the quarter-end coin price, some did not. GAAP earnings per share follow the quarter-end coin price; since the coin price for this quarter is already known, the consensus expectation has limited reference value. Let's push the accounts down once. Software business and interest combined are less than 100 million, so set them aside for now: 20.91 - 1.88 ≈ 19.03 billion net profit, minus preferred stock dividends of about 415 million, attributable to common stock about 18.6 billion. The weighted diluted shares during the quarter, including convertible bonds and STRK calculated as converted, IMovement ($MOVE) - a project in the Move language. Initially, it was an Ethereum Layer 2, then an independent Layer 1, and later a relaunch focusing on payments, stablecoins, and remittances to emerging markets. Snapshot as of October 29, 2026 (aggregator data varies): price: $0.0064–0.0068; market cap: $29.8–31.6 million; FDV: $64–68 million; from all-time high: about −99.5%. Main conflict: the project has a clearer product hypothesis than before, but public usage metrics remain modest. Suitable for readers At the end of July, I mentioned that Google search ad revenue growth might not be so healthy, with AI diversion and monetization difficulties gradually becoming apparent.
This time, $GOOGL's Q3 earnings confirmed it: Search revenue was $63.3 billion (+12%), with growth slowing significantly from 17% last quarter, below expectations; Google itself admitted that low monetization of AI Mode was one of the drags. Overall ad revenue missed, and the stock price fell about 10% after hours.
Although Cloud doubled, the core cash cow of Search is already slowing down, and combined with huge AI capital expenditures, free cash flow turned negative.
It was reasonable to remain cautious before, and I will continue to be cautious here. I'm a bit worried that Google might become "funding short" by funds, just like $META's stock performed poorly before Reel took off back in the day.$TLT, why might the Fed's rate hold still suppress long-term bonds? On October 28, the policy range remained unchanged, but inflation is still high, and two members called for a rate hike, so the bond market's reaction is not necessarily dovish. Long-duration bonds depend on future inflation and term premium. If today's PCE is below expectations and long-end yields fall, duration benefits; if price pressures persist, long bonds may still be under pressure. "A 42.54% buffer, against the 10x leverage shake on $IRYS — this is the most dangerous aspect of this position."
$IRYS 10x short, 0.03841→0.02206, +425.67%. Conversely: it only needs to rebound about 9.25% for that 425% gain to vanish completely.
What does 9.25% mean for $IRYS? A normal upward wick, or even a large order pushing the price up on the order book. In other words, this position doesn't require any negative news to fade, no trend reversal, nor anyone deliberately buying — just a technical rebound is enough to wipe it out.
10x leverage magnifies 42.54% into 425%, and likewise magnifies 9.25% into zero. It offers huge profits but is always ready to take them back.
The market itself is holding up: price is running low. But the key resistance above is not far away.
So I never decide to close based on "how much profit" I have, only on how far it is from the cost line. 42.54% looks like a buffer, but market fluctuations never make sense.
The only move: push to breakeven, at worst lock in zero, and do not expand exposure. $BTC $ETH #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 No rate hike. Upon landing, the sprinting postures of $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL are completely different:
BTC is the flag bearer of this easing rebound, once pushing back above 81000. Although bulls broke below 80,000 in the morning trying to trigger the 79919 pain point, it doesn't affect the capital structure: spot ETFs have had net inflows for three consecutive days, indicating institutions have already priced in the bearish news.
Wash's comment that inflation is still too high remains a ceiling; there likely won't be a big rally before the midterm election results on the 3rd.
ETH is the weakest among mainstream coins, only weakly bouncing less than 0.5% after the decision, completely missing out on the easing dividend. The root cause is institutional attitude: last week, ETH spot ETFs had a net outflow of $576.9 million over five days, the largest five-day outflow this year, indicating structural position cuts rather than tactical adjustments.
ETH is now a high-beta asset abandoned by institutions; if 2400 is not reclaimed, I won't consider it reversed.
SOL this round is chosen by real money; I think it might even outperform BTC.
SOL is the most promising L1 public chain, with the widest application. It bounced just over 1.2% after the decision, relying on the Alpenglow upgrade as an independent narrative, which has little to do with macro easing. The on-chain narrative is clean; its beta is higher than ETH but it wins with ecological support. #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $SNDK gave a non-GAAP EPS guidance for this quarter of $44 to $46, with Wall Street consensus at $46.27. In the same press release's outlook table, revenue, gross margin, expenses, tax rate, and shares outstanding were also provided. Multiplying the upper bounds of these items once: (108 × 85% - 5.2) × (1 - 15%) ÷ 1.55 ≈ 47.49, units are in billions of dollars and hundreds of millions of shares. Revenue is 10.8 billion, gross margin 85%, operating expenses 520 million, all taken at the most favorable end per share, with tax rate and shares as given. The calculated 47.49 is about 1.5 higher than the upper limit of 46 they provided. The lower bound calculated this way is 43.92, close to 44. The company's given range is narrower than the calculated one, compressing the upper bound. The previous quarter was similar. The segmented guidance multiplied out was 30.7 to 33.9, the company gave 30 to 33, and the final reported was 39.25. What determines how much this quarter can exceed is the price. At the August conference call, CFO Luis Visoso said this about the quarter: If you look at Q1, we expect both -- the growth to come from both bit growth and modest price increases. Both volume and price rise, with price only slightly increased. In the previous quarter's press release, this ratio was specified: Sequen$HYPE HYPE's current order book buy side looks absolutely crazy, the protocol is directly using fees to mindlessly scoop up at the bottom.
Every day there are million-dollar level buy orders hanging, and the chips bought are directly sent into a black hole.
Now the total supply has been forcibly burned by nearly 5%. Others are all crazily unlocking and dumping, but Hyperliquid is continuously draining liquidity.
This kind of deflationary market hammered out by cash flow has a terrifyingly strong bottom support; bears holding here are just making things hard on themselves.
#HYPE
$HYPE
👇The Iranian Navy announced today that it has engaged US ships more than 20 times during the 40-day conflict and warned, "Next time it will be on a larger scale." On the same day, the World Bank predicted that global commodity prices will rise another 23% in 2026. Every time there is a flare-up in the Middle East, some people reflexively buy "safe-haven" $BTC. Those who have been repeatedly educated over the past few years should understand that this logic does not hold now. War pushes up oil prices, oil prices hold inflation, inflation forces central banks not to ease, and in the end, risk assets all get hit together, with crypto caught in the mix. The current pricing of war is another nail in the coffin for rate hikes, not a flag of safe haven.120 million WLFI incentives will launch in less than 10 hours, yet $WLFI on OKX has not strengthened in advance. Public data at 14:17 (UTC) shows spot price at 0.05131 USDT, down 1.63% over the rolling 24 hours.
In the last complete 1 hour, spot rose 0.47% with trading volume increasing 220.15% compared to the previous period; perpetual rose 0.55%, with volume increasing only 15.93%. However, in the last complete 4 hours, both spot and perpetual were near flat, with volumes down 49.16% and 56.03% respectively compared to the previous window, indicating that the short-term recovery has not reversed the larger cycle's volume contraction.
Binance announced the event starts at 00:00 (UTC) on October 30, where eligible USD1 holders will share 120 million WLFI according to the rules, with an additional maximum 2.5 million USD1 rewards for new positions. The reward scale may affect USD1 holdings and WLFI distribution pace but does not directly prove increased buying pressure.
OKX perpetual open interest is about 136 million WLFI, equivalent to 6.99 million USD, with a funding rate around +0.0026%. If a full hour volume surge holds above 0.05255 and OI expands moderately, the event will be confirmed by price; if it breaks below 0.05110 with increased volume but OI still rising, I would prioritize guarding against leveraged downside amplification.White House Economic Council Director Hassett delivered a string of good news tonight: supply-side prosperity is pushing prices down, GDP is heading toward 4%, inflation is basically under control, and he added that Trump thinks interest rates could be even lower. Sounds great. I just want to remind one thing: the macroeconomic picture the government talks about and the macroeconomic picture the market prices for you are never the same chart. If things were really that peaceful, the 10-year US Treasury yield wouldn't be sticking so high, and gold prices wouldn't keep climbing. The official narrative is responsible for storytelling, the bond market is responsible for the accounting, and when the two clash, I always trust the accounting side first.$ZEC contract and spot funds continue to flow in positively, and the price is also very strong. Currently, it just lacks the drive from the broader market to break new highs.$JUP
A decentralized trading interface can become an important gateway into an ecosystem, but convenience alone does not guarantee durable token demand. Jupiter’s Solana-based trading ecosystem faces a broader question: how effectively can it retain users across swaps, liquidity tools, and other financial products? Product usage, competitive fees, and the relationship between ecosystem activity and JUP’s token utility deserve separate evaluation.$BTC Just now, this 15-minute bullish candle surged upward. The price hit a short-term new high, but the trading volume shrank, which is a bit unexpected. Just before, a bearish candle first broke below 80,000, then closed with a bullish engulfing pattern. Now the price continues to probe higher, but the trading volume is less than the previous surge. The short-term volume and price are not in sync.
Looking at the 1-hour chart, the two bearish candles that dropped sharply in the morning each had large trading volumes. Although the price has been rising back over the past few hours in the evening, the volume of each candle is less than half of that in the morning. The price is pushing upward, but the volume is shrinking. There aren't many buyers aggressively chasing the highs.
Switching to the daily and 4-hour charts, the current price has reached the daily resistance near 81,000. On the 4-hour chart, EMA20, EMA50, and EMA100 are all diverging downward. The price is rebounding upward but just hitting the resistance of these higher-period moving averages.
I am bearish on the outlook. The daily resistance is right overhead, and the 4-hour moving averages are also pressing downward. If the rebound lacks volume support, it will most likely encounter resistance and move down first.
$ETH $SOL #英特尔代工转型迎来Terafab新变量 $FET
AI infrastructure is attracting crypto capital, but the important distinction is between AI-related branding and services with actual demand. Fetch.ai’s autonomous-agent vision offers a framework for machine-to-machine interactions and automated services. Its challenge is commercial execution: useful applications must attract users, developers, and paying customers. Evidence of recurring usage would be more persuasive than announcements or AI-sector enthusiasm alone.#MicrosoftQ1AzureSurges
Microsoft’s Q1 results cement its position as the undisputed leader of the AI era.
Azure accelerated to 48% growth, and OpenAI commercial revenues crossed a massive $10B mark (11% of total revenue). With a historic ~$170B capex runtime for 2026 and accelerating cloud guidance, Microsoft is running away with the enterprise AI market share.
$MSFT When I, the line-drawing sage, see high leverage, my first reaction isn't to look for a down arrow but to get my eraser ready. 📈 I watch the price relative to moving averages, the volume of the rebound, and whether after a breakdown the price can pull back and hold above the level.
Core Trader 71 is shorting BTC this time with 40x leverage, a position of 4 BTC, at a reference price of $80,166. This entry feels very tight on margin for error, but the price itself doesn't prove it's a good spot; I wouldn't take a large position as a bearish signal.
My confirmation logic is: if the rebound volume shrinks and the pullback can't hold above the broken level, then the bearish case gains more support; conversely, if volume picks up and the price recovers, the situation needs to be reassessed. At 40x leverage, a 1% move against you corresponds to about a 40% margin loss (excluding fees), so beyond directional judgment, timing the entry is especially critical.
For these high-leverage short positions, which indicator do you usually use to filter out false breakdowns: volume, moving averages, or RSI? #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ $SNDK $BTC $QQQ
The opening data is even harsher than pre-market: the Nasdaq fell 1.35%, but the real story lies in the divide between "who is falling and who is holding."
Google A shares plunged 12.27% at the open, Amazon dropped 3.44%, directly dragging down the index. The trigger was no surprise: Alphabet's free cash flow was negative for two consecutive quarters, and capital expenditure guidance was sharply raised. The market voted with its feet—AI investments must prove returns through cash flow, or valuations will be cut first. The storage sector was not spared either; Micron, SanDisk, and Western Digital all fell more than 1% at the open, with after-hours losses continuing into regular trading hours.
But another line held firm against the trend: Apple rose 1.70%, Meta increased 1.28%, Microsoft gained over 1%, and Tesla edged up slightly. Microsoft, benefiting from free cash flow far exceeding expectations and strong Azure growth, became the strongest safe haven among tech stocks at the open; Apple and Meta benefited from a defensive premium due to their "narrative without cracks." Behind the 1.35% drop in the index, funds are making extreme selections within the AI chain rather than a broad retreat.
Judgment: In the short term, maintain the pattern of "index oscillation under pressure with intensified internal differentiation." Google's 12% plunge is unlikely to reverse in a single day, and its dampening effect on cloud computing and AI infrastructure sentiment will last several trading days; Microsoft's strength provides a hedge but is insufficient to reverse the Nasdaq's direction.$CRV
Stablecoin liquidity is a critical part of DeFi, and Curve has built its reputation around efficient trading between similarly priced assets. Yet liquidity can be sensitive to incentives, changing yields, and shifts in capital allocation. A large pool does not automatically mean healthy organic demand. For CRV, governance influence and incentive design are important considerations alongside protocol usage and the sustainability of liquidity provision.Event: ZachXBT: Axis Robotics (AXIS) Pros: 1) Spot USDT pairs: 124 up / 118 down, risk appetite remains, no herd selling; 2) Verifiable facts in the original info: According to ChainCatcher and on-chain detective ZachXBT, insiders of Axis Robotics (AXIS) obtained over 76 million AXIS tokens (worth over $12 million) from a multisig wallet, then sold them via DEX and transferred some tokens to Bitget exchange. Cons: 1) A single piece of news rarely changes the mid-term structure; such events usually lack sustainability; 2) If volume does not follow after the news, a "good news fully priced" style pullback is likely; Current market coordinates: · BTC current price 80,466.20, 24h -0.11% · ETH current price 2,331.29, 24h +0.11% · Spot USDT pairs: 124 up / 118 down (trading volume ≥ $100,000) Numbers don't lie, interpretations are half and half—how do you read it? Which point above do you find least convincing? Point it out in the comments.$PENDLE
Yield tokenization gives DeFi users a way to separate exposure to an asset’s principal from its future yield. Pendle makes that market structure possible, creating opportunities for yield trading and hedging. The trade-off is complexity: returns depend on maturity, market pricing, and the underlying yield source. Whether demand persists beyond attractive incentive periods will help determine the durability of this niche.$BEAT, 10x long, entry at 0.08835, target at 0.09866, +116.69%. One times unrealized profit, 10x leverage has a wider margin for error than higher leverage, but small coins can still be liquidated after a period of inverse volatility. This trade survives thanks to a pre-written exit plan, not by holding on stubbornly.
Execute in two steps: lock in most profits, keep the rest at breakeven stop loss to let profits run. Hold if the trend continues, exit if it doesn't, never add to the position to average down. Copy trading is easy to get hit by sudden losses; everyone has different cost tolerance.
Profits are given by the market, preservation is your own responsibility. Those who survive contracts have profit-taking ingrained in their DNA; the highest unrealized profits are when you should be most cautious of overconfidence. For record only, not to induce copy trading, small coins have large volatility. $BTC $ETH #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 Everyone is waiting for the Fed's "rate cut to save the market," but two things are moving in the opposite direction tonight: the European Central Bank is holding steady and explicitly says a rate hike in December is still on the table, with Lagarde confirming she will step down early in February next year; the Bank of Canada just raised rates for the first time in over three years a few days ago. Putting these together, the conclusion is quite simple: this is not a global synchronized easing cycle at all. Anyone using "imminent opening of the floodgates" as a bullish reason should first take a look at what each central bank is actually voting for. What they say and what they do are often two different things, and the market ultimately recognizes the latter.On Thursday, the main theme in the US stock market was very clear: Google’s stock plunged about 12% the day after its earnings report, with search ad growth continuously below expectations. Coupled with accelerated AI capital expenditures, the market is repricing the "investment return rhythm"; the Nasdaq fell about 1.5%, while the Dow and S&P retreated more moderately.
Across markets, Binance tokenized GOOGLB dropped about 12% in 24 hours, NVDAB fell about 2%, SPCXB was roughly flat with a slight gain; BTC was slightly down near $80,400. Nvidia and SpaceX followed with limited declines, META was relatively strong against the trend, and Microsoft’s earnings were strong but also dragged by sentiment—this looks more like a structural rebalancing after a leading event shock rather than the AI narrative dying out. Google Cloud still grew about double, and query growth remains high; what was hit were monetization and expenditure expectations.
Do you prefer to pick up cloud+AI positions in Google after the sharp sell-off in US stock tokenization, or wait for Nvidia and SpaceX to fully digest the spillover sentiment before buying? Share your real thoughts in the comments. $BTC $GOOGL $NVDA #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 $AMZN reported GAAP diluted earnings per share of $5.75 last quarter. Wall Street's consensus for this quarter was 1.96, and Zacks had it at 2.01. The headline looks like it missed by two-thirds, but the 10-Q has a sentence explaining where the difference lies. We recorded upward adjustments of approximately $50.5 billion in Q2 2026 and $62.8 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2026, to our nonvoting preferred stock in “Other income (expense), net” to reflect observable changes in price related to Anthropic’s fundings. Amazon's Anthropic preferred stock is only adjusted upward when Anthropic raises funds or new transaction prices appear. In Q2, there was a Series H round, and the adjustment was $50.5 billion, all recorded as non-operating income. That quarter, non-operating income totaled 53.4 billion; roughly calculated at a 23% tax rate, it accounted for 3.77 per share. 5.75 - 3.77 ≈ 1.98 Excluding non-operating income, the core business last quarter was about 1.98 per share.