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#US September Core PCE rises to 3.1%, rate hike expectations remain high Today's show stars the Federal Reserve, with BTC just a collateral bystander.
The FOMC held steady as expected, but the aftermath was full of drama: out of 12 officials, 2 actually want a rate hike, Chair Powell's speech was flawless, and the market filled in the blanks with "a hike in December," pushing the rate hike probability to 79.8%. The 10-year Treasury yield topped 5%, and Bitcoin weakened accordingly—at 14:14 it was quoted at $80,133, down 0.9%, erasing yesterday's one-day rebound; altcoins fared worse, with ETH and SOL both down over 1.5%. The position landscape is filled with a "lying flat" mood: the long-short ratio is 49.99:50.01, as precise as if both sides signed a ceasefire; the 24-hour total liquidations across the network were only $145 million, indicating leverage has long been tucked away.
Forecast: The $80,000 level will continue to be contested tonight, with the MSTR earnings report as a hidden wildcard. If it breaks down, look for support between $78,000 and $79,300; to rebound, we need the "December rate hike" narrative to cool off. Strategy: keep low leverage and avoid catching flying knives.
$BTC A single reconnaissance balloon rises to an altitude of three thousand meters, and all the clouds without tethering will be exposed on the spot: the one-to-one reserve requirement is exactly the balloon released over the North American continent today.
On October 26, the currency regulatory authority issued a launch permit to community banks: they can directly apply for stablecoin issuance qualifications or declare through subsidiaries; the premise is a one-to-one reserve, smooth redemption channels, and compliance with capital and risk control standards, with the effective date locked on January 18, 2027. Almost simultaneously, a draft from Ottawa pressed down from the north, regulating holder earnings and capping redemption fees at one percent. The two airflows align, merging into a frontal system spanning North America.
Having worked in meteorology for many years, what I fear most is never heavy rain, but the kind of weather that seems mild on the surface yet has been trapped in an inversion layer for three days. The key this time lies in the inversion layer: issuers are not allowed to pay interest. The surface is held down, moisture cannot rise, but the draft leaves a boundary layer gap for compliant third parties to receive rewards. The width of this gap determines who ultimately bears the brunt of this rain.
Looking at timing again. January 18, 2027, to me, is not an imminent warning but a model forecast beyond seventy-two hours. The longer the forecast, the greater the divergence in ensemble predictions. What you can be sure of is the trend: the pressure gradient is increasing, and the wind is about to rise. What you cannot be sure of is the landing zone: which bank will launch first, which payment channel will fill up first.
Community banks hold decades of accumulated moisture channels: deposit customers, clearing networks, local merchants. In contrast, Tether and USD Coin have long been entrenched in the subtropical high-pressure zone at low latitudes—stable, steady, and widely covering. New convective cells trying to break through the high pressure rely not on volume but on continuous moisture transport.
Observation must also be tight. That triple-leveraged long target essentially places an anemometer in the updraft of a thunderstorm cell, amplifying readings threefold while the direction remains unchanged. When the parent pressure field moves, it jumps first.
I am more concerned about system movement speed. From announcement to effect, fourteen months remain, during which several rounds of pressure field changes and liquidity jets will pass. Historically, fronts delayed this long often land with strength differing significantly from the initial model field.
Visibility is declining. When visibility drops, the first to fail is never the instrument. #uscanadastablecoinpushHassett's one statement has once again poured cold water on the market's rate cut fantasies.
White House National Economic Council Director Hassett publicly stated that the US GDP growth rate is moving toward 4%. It sounds good, but for the crypto world, this signal needs to be carefully considered.
First, with such a strong economy, the Federal Reserve has no urgent reason to cut rates. The market's originally expected easing pace may be pushed back again. Without rate cuts, the dollar remains strong, and the valuation ceiling for risk assets continues to be suppressed.
Second, money doesn't disappear out of thin air; it just moves places. Some is absorbed by the US stock market, and the remainder goes to crypto. So you'll see this contradictory market: the better the macro data, the more hesitant the coin prices.
Third, the real turning point lies in the expectation gap. If 4% is just talk and later data contradicts it, that’s an opportunity for reversal; if it truly holds at 4%, the main theme of this cycle won't be a liquidity-driven bull but a profit-driven bull, depending on who has real use cases and cash flow.
Looking at the market, BTC is currently in an awkward position, pressured above and supported below, oscillating back and forth. ETH follows the broader market with slightly more volatility. Altcoins only have localized opportunities, so don’t chase highs recklessly.
My view: in a macro environment leaning strong, it’s not suitable to go all-in betting on direction; it’s better to hold cash and wait for a correction. Only when prices truly drop is it time to accumulate chips.
Don’t be blinded by the phrase "economic improvement"; the crypto world has never profited from good news but from expectation gaps.5 whales collectively went long on 597,912 HYPE within hours
On October 29, according to Lookonchain monitoring, in the past few hours, 5 whales opened long positions on HYPE, totaling 597,912 HYPE, valued at 52.7 million USD. #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $BTC $ETH $HYPE #Samsung Q3 Operating Profit Hits Record High, Net Profit Falls Short of Expectations #Google's cloud service revenue increases by 82%, how is the AI return on investment? $ZEC repeatedly tested the previous resistance zone but failed to break through; the market structure has already given a signal. The volume couldn't keep up during the rally, and heavy sell orders above indicate a typical false breakout with weakening momentum. Once the trend reverses, the downward speed is often faster than the rise, so wait for confirmation of weakness on the right side before following the trend.
Currently, the price is around 1276.98, and the short-term decline has already been largely absorbed. However, be aware that this highly volatile asset can also rebound strongly and may bounce up at any time due to market movements. Going forward, focus closely on the market's support situation; once the trend stabilizes, the rhythm will need to adjust accordingly. #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Two test orders included.
A product with a high probability of making money, strictly speaking, does not lack users.
Because users will come looking for it themselves.
The real difficulty is: how do you prove that you have a "high probability"?
I usually only look at four things: whether the backtest is real, whether risk control is executable, whether the live trading is consistent, and whether mistakes are admitted when it fails.
Not investment advice.
#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 SanDisk closed yesterday at 1,404.77, up 13.5% over three trading days. After the U.S. Eastern market closes today, the earnings report will be released, which corresponds to just after 4 a.m. Beijing time tomorrow, with a conference call at 4:30 a.m. I think the chance of beating expectations is somewhat higher. Wall Street estimates about $46.4 per share, while the company’s own guidance is $44 to $46. Since SanDisk's spin-off listing, revenue has exceeded its own guidance upper limit every time; out of 5 verifiable occasions, the minimum beat was 2.8%, and the maximum was 24%. This time, as long as revenue is around 10.7 billion and gross margin reaches 85%, a rough calculation puts earnings per share at about 47, and revenue hasn't yet reached the guidance upper limit of 10.8 billion. However, I think the extent of the beat this time won’t be as large as previous times. NAND prices are still rising this quarter, but not as sharply as in the first half; Samsung said NAND average prices rose 17 to 18 percentage points quarter-over-quarter in Q3. More than half of SanDisk’s volume is under long-term contracts, so price increases are not fully captured. Also, starting this fiscal year, it has to pay a minimum tax of 15%, whereas the previous effective tax rate was only around 12 to 13%. So I estimate about a 60% chance of beating expectations, not 90%. The day after is hard to say. In 6 SanDisk earnings reports, the day after saw 4 rises and 2 falls; in the two declines, the stock had already risen significantly in the 5 days before the report, once by 14.7%, once by 32.9%. This time, the stock rose 13.5% in the three days before the earnings. But there are exceptions: in April this year, the stock rose 17.6% in the 5 days before earnings and still rose 8.3% the next day. This quarter, storage peers released"97% on the screen is just a number, 4.70% is the reality."
$OKB 20x leverage, 106.91→112.16, +97.83%.
Don't be fooled by the percentage. With 20x leverage, the underlying asset only rose about 4.91% to generate this 97% paper gain. Conversely: if the price falls about 4.70% from the current mark price, this 97% unrealized profit will instantly vanish.
The death of a high-leverage long position is never a trend reversal, but volatility. A normal market fluctuation or a profit-taking by bulls is enough to turn this fat profit into thin air.
My trading logic is never driven by greed. The only move is: firmly push the stop loss above the cost line, turning this position into "a small amount the exchange owes me." If it doesn't exit, set a deadline; funding fees will turn inertia into losses.
Survive, then the numbers are truly yours. $BTC $ETH #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Missed trades cost nothing.
But recklessly jumping on board to chase the market will make you buy at the top, liquidate at the bottom, and lose everything.
The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is capital. Missing out just means no profit, but recklessness can really be fatal.[A $170 Million Order Only Earned $119,000, Hyperliquid's Crude Oil Market Suspected of "Staging"]
Solidus Labs found that from March 8 to 10, two Hyperliquid accounts cumulatively placed abnormal crude oil $BZ contract orders exceeding $170 million, with cancellations amounting to about 30 times the actual reverse transaction volume, reportedly earning about $119,000 in three days. The typical tactic is to first place large sell orders to create selling pressure, quietly buy on the other side, and then cancel the sell orders after the trades are executed.
Currently, $HYPE is expanding its business from cryptocurrency to traditional assets such as crude oil and stocks. The larger the market, the more traders need to trust that the order book reflects genuine buying and selling intentions. If large orders can be used to intimidate or lure others into trading, ordinary users face not only price volatility but also the risk of being misled by false liquidity.
Hyperliquid responded that orders, cancellations, and transaction records are all publicly available on-chain for external verification. However, transparency of records does not automatically prevent manipulation; Solidus has not yet confirmed any manipulative intent by traders. The real test this time is whether the platform can turn transparent records into effective regulation. If not handled well, the impact could affect not only the reputation of crude oil contracts but also market confidence in Hyperliquid's expansion into traditional asset businesses.Starting with 100,000 in contracts and now having a net worth of over 30 million, my journey in crypto trading is like a novel story! Sharing my personal experience to help everyone achieve their dreams in the crypto world!
1. If your initial capital isn't very large, for example under 100,000, catching one big market swing per day is already enough. Avoid greed and holding positions all the time!
2. When encountering major positive news, if you don't sell on the same day, remember to sell at the high open the next day. Often, the realization of good news turns into bad news.
3. News and holidays are also very important. When facing major events, you should adjust in advance (reduce positions or even go flat). Historically, major events always bring significant market volatility. If you can't predict the direction in advance, then wait for the market to come and follow the trend!
4. For mid-to-long-term strategies, always enter with light positions, leaving enough room for maneuver. Steady operation is the best approach; avoid heavy positions!
5. Short-term trading focuses on following the trend, entering and exiting quickly. Avoid greed and hesitation. Look for suitable entry points during big market swings. If the market is sluggish and inactive, stay flat and wait patiently [L2 Entering Elimination Phase: $LSK, $G Alpha Shutting Down Soon, 26 of 32 Chains Not Fully Ended]
A tracking report on L2 shutdown progress shows: Lisk will shut down on October 31, Gravity Alpha will shut down on November 1; among the 32 chains in the statistics, 26 have not fully ended yet, and users with assets still need to withdraw them as soon as possible.
Crypto KOL BITWU.ETH reviewed and believes the peak period for L2 was from 2023 to the end of 2024, with the $ARB airdrop on March 23, 2023, being a key turning point. Since then, L2s have basically operated on the same template:
1) Launch a chain first;
2) Use points, cross-chain, deposits, and trading rewards to attract yield farmers;
3) Build data and secure funding;
4) After TGE, users and liquidity quickly leave.
He believes that after L2 commercialization, supply and demand became unbalanced, with many chains lacking unique applications, merely replicating the same DeFi, NFT, and points mechanics. The remaining L2s can be divided into three tiers:
First tier: Base, Arbitrum
Second tier: OP Stack ecosystem, Mantle, Starknet
Application-specific winners: Lighter, Unichain, InkU.S. stocks opened sharply lower and plunged! Panic on the market, but the trend hasn't collapsed ⚠️
U.S. stocks directly opened down over 300 points
Overall market sentiment is suppressed
BTC, ETH, and altcoins are all under pressure
But remember the key point:
Short-term decline does not mean the trend is completely broken!
The market is always counterintuitive
The more collective panic there is
The easier it is to see an unexpected rebound
Bullish, but never blindly go long!
The best current approach:
Wait and watch
Keep an eye on the strength or weakness of U.S. stocks
Hold key supports of BTC and ETH before taking action
Two possible scenarios for the market:
✅ U.S. stock decline eases → crypto market sees a recovery rebound
❌ U.S. stocks continue to fall with volume → market continues to retest lows
My personal view remains unchanged:
Overall leaning bullish
No reckless chasing, strictly control position size, and set stop losses
The more chaotic the market, the more you need to be steady!
Are you panicking bearish now, or waiting for an oversold rebound?
Personal market notes only, not investment advice
$BTC $ETH
#微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 On the same day, two tokenized stocks both labeled as AI infrastructure went in completely opposite directions. On OKX, XMRVL was down 11.53% in 24h, XORCL was up 8.23% in 24h, while BTC was only down 0.39%. So it’s not driven by the overall market, but these two moved on their own.
For Marvell, it’s news-driven: According to Bloomberg, it is in deep talks to acquire optical device company Lumentum, which might be announced soon, but currently it’s just a report with no final decision. The market’s first reaction was concern over financing and dilution; Marvell’s US stock dropped about 13%, while Lumentum’s rose about 6%. Lumentum’s market cap is about $83 billion, Marvell’s about $221 billion, so this is a big bite to take, and the top question is where the money will come from.
Oracle went the opposite way: at its investor day, it set a target of over $225 billion total revenue by FY2030, said free cash flow will turn positive in the second half of FY2028, and new financing from FY27 to FY30 will be capped at $20 billion. Its US stock closed up 10.73% on the last trading day.
My understanding is that the market hasn’t stopped believing in AI; it’s just starting to audit the books 😅. Those who can clearly explain where the money comes from won’t be questioned, but those who need to spend big money will get grilled first.
Who do you think will be the next to be asked “Where’s the money coming from?” With headline inflation accelerating and core inflation still elevated, the path to easier monetary conditions looks less straightforward.
The next move in crypto may depend on whether incoming data supports rate cuts or forces markets to price in a more hawkish Fed. BTC is repeatedly tugging at the 80,000 level; can this rebound hold?
📊 Market Snapshot
BTC: $80,164 (24h -0.93%), 4H range $79,782 – $80,527
ETH: $2,325 (24h -0.93%), 4H range $2,305 – $2,335
1️⃣ Wyckoff Perspective
The intraday low touched 79,710 before quickly recovering above 80,000, showing a spring effect near the support level. 4H volume is moderately shrinking, selling pressure shows signs of easing, but before breaking through the 80,500 resistance, this can only be seen as a consolidation phase of accumulation, and the distribution phase cannot be confirmed.
2️⃣ 2B Rule Judgment
The previous low near 79,710 was tested twice without a valid break below; a 2B pattern is forming. If it retests without making a new low and then breaks above 80,500 with volume, the reversal signal is confirmed; conversely, if volume breaks below 79,700, beware of a false breakout turning into a real breakout.
3️⃣ Dow Theory
Short-term high at 81,788 and low at 79,710, price is oscillating widely around 80K. The trend structure is intact but no new highs confirmed. ETH moves synchronously with no relative strength divergence, representing a typical waiting-for-direction phase.
🛡️ Trading Strategy
80,500 / 81,800 are key resistance observation points, 79,700 is the short-term lifeline; keep hands off until direction is clear #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) Q3 earnings report will be released tonight. The market has already priced it in: Bitcoin rose about 43% in Q3, the company forecasted unrealized digital asset gains of approximately $20.9 billion, ending four consecutive quarters of losses, with holdings stable at 848,500 BTC (average price about $75,400).
The real highlights are not "how much was earned," but three things:
1. Under fair value accounting, BTC price directly determines the income statement; a good-looking earnings report ≠ cash inflow;
2. Recently paused buying coins and turned to repurchasing STRC preferred shares, indicating capital allocation shifting from "mindless accumulation" to "stable leverage";
3. MSTR premium narrowed to about 6%, the market begins to question the sustainability of the "coin hoarding leverage model."
The impact on Bitcoin is twofold:
- Short term: Positive expectations are basically priced in; if MSTR does not continue to expand its premium after the earnings report, BTC lacks new leveraged buying, making the $80,000 level prone to repeated spikes and dips;
- Medium term: Strategy remains the largest institutional long indicator; as long as it does not sell coins or collapse preferred share credit, it remains a bottom support force for BTC; once financing ability is questioned, it will amplify the correction.
In a word: this earnings report is a "paper bull," not "new ammunition." For BTC to climb to the next level, it must rely on ETF net inflows and interest rate cut expectations, not on Saylor's balance sheet. $HYPE broke through $90 today, rising over 10% intraday
Opened a small position at an average price of 75, unexpectedly made a profit
The reason: ICE and Trade.xyz have reached a cooperation agreement to launch a perpetual contract trading platform targeting the US market after CFTC approval
This platform is built on Hyperliquid, covering stocks, indices, commodities, forex, and crypto assets, with 24/7 trading
If the CFTC gives the green light, Hyperliquid will transform from an offshore derivatives platform into part of Wall Street infrastructure
$HYPE, as the native token of Hyperliquid, is not benefiting from sentiment premium but from a structural revaluation after the compliance channel opens
I posted last week when I entered the position, quite optimistic that this coin will get better and better like $OKB
#HYPE#美加稳定币监管推进，社区银行获邀入场 The US OCC, relying on the GENIUS Act framework, proactively invites local community banks to participate in the stablecoin sector, allowing them to apply to become stablecoin issuers and custodians; Canada is also synchronously improving regulatory details for reference-type crypto assets. Both North American regions are advancing stablecoin compliance implementation simultaneously, no longer limiting entry qualifications to large banks and leading crypto enterprises.
✅ Positive implications
1. Expansion of participants in the sector: Community banks deeply serve local small and micro enterprises and regional customers. After integrating stablecoins, they can provide on-chain payment and cross-border settlement services to local merchants, filling the underserved markets that large banks do not cover, further broadening stablecoin application scenarios.
2. Natural compliance advantages: Community banks inherently have mature KYC, anti-money laundering, and deposit risk control systems. Compared to pure crypto projects, they more easily meet regulatory hard requirements such as 1:1 reserves, regular disclosures, and redemption guarantees, reducing regulatory implementation resistance.
3. Accelerated integration of traditional finance and crypto: More licensed financial institutions entering the market helps enhance trust in stablecoins and promotes the advancement of RWA and on-chain payment businesses. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Brothers, don’t look down on my small position and little profit! As long as the direction is right, even if I make just one or two bucks, it’s all real skill wrestled from the dog traders’ hands! I short confidently and boldly!
Look at the latest market: $ETH current price is 2320.82, I opened a short at the high of 2354, and now the floating profit has further expanded to 4.22%! And what are these retail traders doing? Looking at the bottom data, the bulls’ proportion has surged again to 71%, while the bears are only 29%. They really have the memory of a fish—after such a drop, they still dare to rush in crazily. The market makers love you bag holders the most!
Let’s dig into the order book to see the real intentions of the main players:
First, the selling pressure above is tightly pressing down. Keep an eye on 2320.84, where a large sell order of 175.22 coins is directly suppressing the price. As soon as the bulls dare to show up, they get smashed back immediately.
Second, the buy orders below are all a confusing trap. Although there’s a buy order of 325.17 at 2320.83, which looks bigger than the sell orders, did the price go up? Not at all! This is bait set by the main players below to fish, deliberately creating the illusion that "it can’t fall further" to lure retail traders in.
Third, the trend is a typical descending channel. The moving average system is firmly pressing from above, and all the weak rebounds are volume-less bull traps.
Don’t be the sucker who takes the bag. My very small short position is held steadily, the forced liquidation price is far away, no matter how the main players shake the market, they can’t blow me out.
$BTC $ZEC #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Hyperliquid whales are net short $BTC for the first time since March.
This group managed to long the bottom, but the positioning flipped last week.
The question is whether they are early to a deeper pullback, or about to be squeezed if price turns higher.The 0.0013%/hour funding rate is the number I care about most in this message. In the futures market, when there's a sharp rally, I usually first check whether the position cost has become more expensive, similar to looking at the premium or discount in commodity futures; you can't just focus on how much the price has risen on the screen. Although the mechanisms differ, both serve to account for the excitement in the market.
This time, $LIT rose 6.49% in one hour, with the price reaching $3.19. I actually think that based on this funding rate alone, it's not enough to conclude that the bulls are already crowded. A fast price increase doesn't necessarily mean that leverage sentiment is overheated; these two things need to be considered separately.
The difference between crypto perpetuals and traditional futures is that the funding rate continuously affects the position cost and can change. The annualized rate of about 11% given in the material is just calculated based on the current rate, not a locked-in cost for a year. If the positive funding rate continues to rise, then the burden on long positions chasing the rally will increase; this is my inference, not something that has already happened. A snapshot at this moment also doesn't reveal what exactly is driving this rise.
My old habit might be a bit of a downer: when there's a sharp rise, I first look at the cost before discussing strength or weakness. Are there any friends who have also transitioned from traditional markets? When you encounter such a one-hour surge, do you first check whether the funding rate can be sustained, or do you first look at changes in volume and open interest, and why?I'm buying Google at this price without hesitation. The financial report looks pretty good. It was sold off just because of investments in SpaceX and AI layout. Those who want to sell, go ahead. This position is really attractive. I'm planning to hold GOOGL starting with 280 for the medium to long term. #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高
Today’s intraday quick review of the US stock market (2026.10.29): Google drags down the Nasdaq, money is frantically rotating
The opening trend is clear at a glance: money is withdrawing from "burning cash to buy the future" stocks and squeezing into "stocks with earnings, buybacks, and solid fundamentals."
Once Google's earnings report came out, the market immediately voted with its feet. GOOGL is currently around 283.6, down more than 12%, with trading volume soaring to 8.8 billion. This volume is not something retail investors can generate. The issue is not revenue but free cash flow being negative for two consecutive quarters. The money spent on AI infrastructure shows no short-term return, so funds are running first. GOOG also hit the floor, temporarily giving up its top spot.
But the market is not collapsing entirely. Microsoft rose nearly 1%, Apple is up, Meta is holding strong, and Eli Lilly surged 8%, indicating money hasn’t left the market, just changed tables. Funds are moving from AI narrative stocks with high capital expenditure and cash flow pressure to defensive growth stocks with higher earnings certainty.
The worst hit is ServiceNow, which plunged more than 22%, marking the largest intraday drop since 2016. The software SaaS sector was bloodied today. Storage players like SanDisk and Micron also took hits, showing clear differentiation within semiconductors.
Traders’ intuition: today is not indiscriminate selling but precise position cutting. Google dragged the Nasdaq down, but Microsoft and Eli Lilly caught some of the liquidity.【Nasdaq futures fall nearly 1%, the AI money-burning spree begins to pay the price】
US tech stocks are taking a hit, with the focus squarely on how much profit AI investments can actually generate. On October 29, Nasdaq 100 futures dropped about 1% at one point, Alphabet, Google's parent company, fell over 10% pre-market as core search ad performance missed expectations and AI spending continued to drain cash flow. Microsoft, however, rose against the trend due to strong cloud business growth and cash flow, showing that the market is starting to differentiate between AI spenders.
This selling pressure isn't just dragging down Google. Nvidia fell pre-market, AMD and Intel declined even more, and software stocks also reported earnings shocks. Meanwhile, US Q3 GDP grew 3.4%, core PCE rose 3.1% year-over-year, indicating the economy and inflation remain robust, making rate cut expectations hard to gain traction. The crypto market has also been affected, with BTC briefly dropping below $80,000 and over $300 million liquidated in 24-hour contracts.
What concerns me more than the Nasdaq $QQQ dropping 0.9% is that AI trading is shifting from "who spends the most" to "who can actually make money back." Tonight's earnings reports from Amazon and Intel will be another test; if the market continues to punish companies with high spending and low returns, both tech stocks and crypto assets will face short-term challenges.The SOL spot ETF lost about $24.8 million in two days, but the coin just broke around 100 and then bounced back. I'll keep an eye on this level first.
According to SoSoValue on 10/27 Eastern Time, the spot SOL ETF had a net outflow of about $19.16 million in one day, and on 10/28 it lost another $5.66 million, totaling about $24.8 million over two days.
The 10/27 redemption was the second largest single-day redemption since last December. The cumulative outflow in October has exceeded about $105 million, while the cumulative net inflow is still around $1.5 billion.
During the same period, the BTC spot ETF continued to see inflows (about $137 million on Wednesday). While BTC is still attracting funds, SOL is losing them.
On OKX, the current price is about 100.3, with a 24h high of about 103.9 and a low of about 99.3. The Beijing opening price was about 101. The price did dip near 99 during the session but is now hovering around 100.
I tend to see institutions redeeming while the spot price tests around 100 back and forth; this is not a bottom-fishing signal. Let's first see if the 99.3–100 range can hold. If it recovers to about 103–104, then we can talk. If the 4H candle closes below about 99.3, the psychological barrier at 100 will loosen.
Do you think 100 can hold, or will it test 96–98 first?
$SOL
$BTC
#VanEck与富兰克林推出含BTC配置的新型ETF 中期选举牵动加密监管 链上金融作为技术革新，在全球多数地区仍处于监管萌芽期。不同于传统金融拥有成熟的合规环境，加密行业的发展高度依赖政策走向。 美国中期选举直接决定了下一届国会的议员构成，这将直接影响2027年新国会是否愿意以及在多大程度上重启对加密货币的市场结构立法。随着选举临近，加密资本正通过各种政治行动组织直接干预选举结果。 Fairshake重金组建亲加密阵营 本轮选举的核心操盘手是由 Coinbase、Ripple 和 a16z 出资成立的超级政治行动委员会（Super PAC）Fairshake。该组织的目标是在美国历史上组建规模最大的“亲加密议员集团”。 在2024年总统选举周期中，Fairshake 及其关联组织筹集并支出了1.3亿至2亿美元，成为当年企业政治支出最大的主体之一。该组织通过在数十场国会选举中投放广告，全力支持亲加密候选人并阻击立场不友好的议员。 俄亥俄选战阻击反加密议员 俄亥俄州参议院席位成为本次中期选举中最受瞩目的关键战役。前银行委员会主席Sherrod Brown被视为加密行业在国会中最大的对手。 2024年选战结果：Fairshake 投入约400Coinbase closed at 162.32 yesterday, down from 186.41 at the end of September, a drop of 12.9% in one month. During the same period, Bitcoin only fell 2.8%, so the stock price dropped much more sharply than the cryptocurrency. After the U.S. Eastern market closes today, Coinbase will release its Q3 earnings report, which will be around 4 a.m. Beijing time tomorrow, with a live Q&A at 5 a.m. I'm not too worried about the earnings per share. Wall Street estimates are based on adjusted figures, mostly showing a loss of a few cents per share. However, the GAAP numbers include a line for Coinbase's own holdings of Bitcoin and Ethereum, valued at the quarter-end price. In Q3, Bitcoin rose 42.8% and Ethereum increased by 70%, roughly accounting for over $600 million in unrealized gains. The first three quarters saw cryptocurrency prices decline, causing Coinbase to post losses for three consecutive quarters, but this quarter is the opposite. I roughly estimate earnings per share could be between $1.5 and $2. What I'm really waiting for is a figure in the shareholder letter. Every time Coinbase releases earnings, it also reports the trading revenue for the quarter up to a few days before in the shareholder letter. At the end of July, it reported about $130 million for the first 26 days of July, averaging $5 million per day, which was over 20% slower than the $6.6 million per day in Q2. The stock price dropped 10.6% the next day. This time, the report will cover October. Bitcoin fell from 83,600 to around 80,000 in October. I roughly estimate that the trading volume of several major trading pairs on Coinbase's exchange was over 10% lower than the Q3 average. On the positive side, the cryptocurrency prices in October... ⚠️Heavy data releases are coming tonight, opening a volatile window for BTC.
Currently, BTC is repeatedly tugging at the 80000 level, facing short-term pressure.
The previous night's Fed decision maintained the status quo, but hawkish voices emerged internally; tonight's PCE is a major macro test.
$BTC #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高
Short-term attention should be paid to pullback risks.
If core PCE exceeds expectations combined with strong GDP, tightening expectations will reemerge. If the price falls below 79700, support levels are at 79000 and 78500;
If inflation data weakens, and the US dollar index and US Treasury yields decline, a recovery rebound will follow, first testing 81300, and if it holds, then 81800.
No need to obsess over data numbers; the market's immediate feedback is more valuable.
The market changes rapidly; anchor key levels in advance and wait quietly for signals.
Follow the trend, maintain discipline.Funding situation: ETF "IBIT single-handedly supports" + $11 billion options expiration gamma trap
ETF—Three consecutive days of inflows, but almost all from IBIT
On October 28, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of about $137 million, marking the third consecutive day of inflows, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for nearly the entire amount ($136 million). The cumulative net outflow in October has narrowed from several hundred million dollars to about $26–27 million. However, the structure of "one entity supporting all, others remaining still" has not changed—the $774 million outflow on October 22–23 has yet to be fully recovered.
Options expiration—$11 billion gamma risk concentrated on the downside
About $11 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire on October 30, accounting for about one-third of Deribit's open interest. Call options with strike prices at $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000 dominate the market, but if prices remain unchanged, they are likely to expire worthless. The key point: about 70% of the expiring gamma risk is concentrated between $75,000 and $82,000, and the number of put options below $80,000 is more than twice that of call options. If market makers are net sellers of these options, their hedging activities during a decline could exacerbate losses between $75,000 and $78,000.
Liquidation structure: During the decline from October 22 to 24, long liquidations reached $1.23 billion, accounting for 82% of total liquidations in the same period, with leverage-induced selling pressure far exceeding the marginal ETF buying. Long leverage has already been systemically cleaned out once, but the gamma risk of options still accumulates on the downside. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ On October 29, U.S. stock markets opened with significant divergence among the three major indices. Dow futures rose about 0.6% against the trend, but Nasdaq futures fell over 1%. Google plunged nearly 10% after hours, becoming the main drag—Q3 free cash flow shrank sharply, and the market's patience for AI's massive capital expenditures is running out. The crypto market simultaneously experienced a leveraged liquidation. In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network reached $578 million, with 91% being long positions—$BTC contributed $235 million, ETH $184 million. BTC surged to 81,106 after the rate decision, then rapidly dropped to 79,710 within hours, erasing all gains; $ETH simultaneously saw a net outflow of $169 million. ETH fell to around 2,310, with October spot ETFs seeing a cumulative net outflow of about $1.32 billion, approaching a monthly record, and the daily chart has broken below the lower boundary of the ascending channel since June. $ETH is one of the few counter-trend assets, but the capital signals are not clean. It rebounded from the low to around 1,290, with shorts liquidated for $5 million at one point, but overall capital still net outflowed over 24 hours, and trading volume was only 0.62 times the 7-day average, showing weak willingness to chase highs. ETF side saw a single-day net inflow of $2.07 million, a limited volume, insufficient to offset the withdrawal pressure on the spot side. Microsoft rose nearly 3% against the trend thanks to Azure's 48% growth but struggled to offset Google's drag. The semiconductor sector rebounded pre-market, with SOXL contract prices rising over 7% compared to pre-market reference prices. Core contradiction: Google's cash flow alarm and the Federal Reserve's "hold steady" stance.$SNDK SNDK whale long position liquidation loss of 4.58 million USD reflections.
Even whales with abundant capital can misjudge the market. The average entry price was 1814.45, ultimately closed at 1247.20, a drawdown of over 30%, ending a month-long long position layout with a huge loss.
There are no eternal winners in the market; no matter how smooth the market logic is, risk control must always come first. Also remind yourself not to blindly follow so-called whale positions, as you cannot fully know others' trading plans.
The core of trading is managing position size, controlling drawdowns, and always maintaining respect for the market.
(Personal review, not investment advice)U.S. stocks all opened lower tonight, with none of the three major indexes holding up: the S&P 500 fell 0.55%, the Dow Jones dropped 0.59%, and the Nasdaq declined 1.35%. The real shock was in individual stocks—Google A shares plunged 12.27% in a single day; this is not a correction, but capital voting with its feet.
Among large tech stocks, Apple rose 1.70% and Meta gained 1.28%, becoming rare safe havens; Amazon fell 3.44%, AMD dropped 2.29%, and SpaceX declined 2.24%. All the casualties were overvalued growth stocks.
Chinese concept stocks also showed divergence: Pinduoduo rose 1.20% against the trend, while NIO fell 1.36%, Li Auto dropped 1.67%, Alibaba declined 1.70%, NetEase fell 1.76%, and XPeng dropped 2.25%.
This combination indicates not that any single company is in trouble, but that the market is repricing future cash flows. When interest rate expectations rise, long-duration assets are the first to be cut. High-beta risk assets like $BTC and Ethereum tend to show amplified correlation with the Nasdaq on nights like this; with the Nasdaq down 1.35%, the crypto market often falls even more sharply, and leveraged positions are most vulnerable to cascading liquidations at such times.
Therefore, the short-term key is not to guess the bottom but to see if the Nasdaq can stop falling. If the Nasdaq remains unstable, every BTC rebound is just a retracement; if the Nasdaq stabilizes, that signals a joint recovery of risk assets. Keep positions light and wait for confirmation.
Watch: BTC, ETH, SOL1. The hardest fact today: All 14 B tokens are trading at a discount. Comparing the mid-prices of the B sample spot with the mid-prices of the same-name perpetual contracts, all 14 targets show negative premiums; none are at a premium. The deepest discounts are: Advanced Micro Devices -0.141%, Triple Nasdaq ETF (TQQQ) -0.115%, Google -0.109%; the shallowest is Berkshire Hathaway Class B -0.004% (almost flat). The average discount is about -0.075%. Meaning: The USDT perpetual pricing leads the spot B tokens, and the market’s answer is "on-chain certificate selling pressure outweighs perpetual longs." Those passively absorbing on the spot side are paying for liquidity premium. 2. Who is bleeding, who is supporting the market (by trading volume) · Google B token $294.25, 24h -9.894% (perpetual $294.55, -9.860%), trading volume $34.5 million, ranked first overall, the biggest price discovery source today. · Nvidia B token $213.26, -2.376%, trading volume $12.42 million. · MicroStrategy B token $140.64, -0.846%, trading volume $12.12 million, discount only -0.021%. · Tesla B token $399.80, -2.060%, trading volume $4.78 million. · Robinhood B token $89.41, +2 Tonight Coinbase will release its Q3 earnings report, with the market predicting a 65% chance of exceeding expectations.
But what really matters is not how much it earned this quarter, but whether Coinbase can break free from the exchange fate of "making money in bull markets and struggling in bear markets" after acquiring Deribit.
In the past, Coinbase mainly relied on spot trading fees: the better the market performs and the more frequent retail trading is, the more it earns; when the market is quiet, revenue quickly shrinks.
Deribit fills exactly the gap it lacked most. Coinbase is strong in the US market, spot trading, and compliance, while Deribit excels in the global market, institutional users, and crypto options. After combining, Coinbase now covers spot, perpetuals, futures, and options, upgrading from a retail spot exchange to a global crypto financial infrastructure.
Tonight's earnings report will focus on three key data points:
1. Whether spot trading revenue can stop declining;
2. Whether Deribit can bring incremental derivatives volume;
3. Whether USDC-related revenue can continue to grow.
However, the unified platform integration of Coinbase and Deribit was only completed on October 1, so Q3 is more like a "pre-integration baseline," making management's guidance for Q4 even more important.
Coinbase is transforming into a "crypto version of Goldman Sachs" covering trading, stablecoins, and institutional services.
#Coinbase整合Deribit，Q3收入能否改善？ $xNOW Many people look at a project and first focus on the token price and trading volume.
But I believe that besides market data, one should also understand what the project itself aims to do.
STAK is a public chain project focused on privacy, security, and decentralized infrastructure. We hope to gradually advance anonymous privacy wallets, anonymous SocialFi, anonymous DEX, and subsequently a privacy mainnet.
Compared to only discussing token market trends, I prefer everyone to understand the project's technical direction and actual development progress.
Our ecosystem token is SAK. Everyone is welcome to search and learn about it, and rational discussions are encouraged.CORE: A public chain with a TVL of 3.82 million and daily trading volume of 900 USD, ranked in the top 200 by market cap
A stark contrast in data is presented to the market: the CORE token's market cap still firmly holds a position within the top 200 of all tokens, but the native DeFi locked assets on the Core chain have dwindled to only 3.82 million USD, and the on-chain DEX daily trading volume has dropped to as low as 900 USD. There is a severe mismatch between market cap size and actual on-chain activity. Many people easily confuse two completely independent data sets: the BTC staking assets supporting the BTCFi narrative are not the DeFi funds within the Core chain. The BTC used to participate in the Satoshi Plus consensus is locked on the Bitcoin mainnet through CLTV time locks; these assets have not crossed over into Core chain DeFi contracts. The 3.82 million TVL and 900 USD daily trading volume represent the true vitality of the Core chain DeFi ecosystem. This data indicates that on-chain DeFi funds have largely fled, liquidity is exhausted, slippage is huge, and almost no users are willing to conduct lending or exchange operations on the Core chain. On-chain fee income is nearly depleted, making the foundation's envisioned value flywheel of fee buybacks for CORE difficult to realize. Of course, the project has not completely collapsed; the BTC staking narrative and institutional LST products are still progressing. But relying solely on the consensus layer staking narrative to support market cap while the on-chain application layer is nearly in shock is a very high warning signal. Coupled with the continuous retreat of independent validators and 69 million ghost tokens looming overhead, the market cap is a premium leftover from the bull market, and on-chain trading volume is the real current answer of the ecosystem.The evening market overall is slightly volatile and weak, with BTC currently priced at 80105.1, a slight drop of 0.52%. The market has entered a grinding phase, with bulls and bears temporarily tugging. ETH follows the broader market closely, slightly declining around 2322, showing strong correlation.
Most mainstream coins are weakening in sync, except OKB, which is slightly up against the trend, showing independent movement and resilience; SNDK has a relatively larger drop and more aggressive volatility.
Currently, there is no clear one-sided direction; it is a choppy consolidation market. This kind of market has a high risk of stop-loss hunting back and forth, so do not rush to heavily chase positions. Be patient and wait for a directional breakout, and control your position size "A 14.85% buffer against the daily fluctuations of $HYPE — this is the riskiest part of this trade."
$HYPE 50x leverage, from 79.137 to 90.888, +742.44%. Conversely: it only needs to pull back about 1.48% for that 742% gain to vanish completely.
What does 1.48% mean for $HYPE? A normal downward wick, or even a large sell order on the order book. In other words, this trade doesn't require any fading of positive news, a trend reversal, or even someone deliberately shorting — a purely technical correction is enough to wipe it out.
50x leverage magnifies 14.85% into 742%, but it also magnifies 1.48% into zero. It offers you huge returns but is always ready to take them back.
The market itself is holding up: price is running high. But the key support below is not far away.
So I never decide to exit based on "how much I've earned," only on how far the price is from my cost line. 14.85% looks like a buffer, but altcoin fluctuations never make sense.
The only move: push to break even, at worst lock in zero, and no longer increase exposure. $BTC $ETH #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 CORE ecosystem status: BTC re-staking stands alone, other protocols collectively inactive
The CORE ecosystem shows an extremely fragmented pattern: the BTC re-staking track solely supports the entire BTCFi narrative facade, while the vast majority of native DeFi protocols such as on-chain DEXs and lending continue to see capital outflows, nearly collectively inactive ✅ The standout BTC re-staking relies on the self-custody BTC staking mechanism based on the Satoshi Plus consensus, combined with institutional cooperation and liquid staking certificate SolvBTC.CORE. The re-staking track remains the only highlight of the ecosystem and is the core focus of the Core Bitcoin Grid strategic bet. Users lock BTC to participate in consensus staking to earn CORE rewards, forming the ecosystem's most core narrative asset ❌ Other protocols are collectively hemorrhaging:
TVL and trading volume of lending and trading protocols like Colend and DEXs continue to collapse, with DEX daily trading volume only a few hundred dollars and on-chain active users fewer than three digits. Most users participating in BTC staking only earn token rewards and do not engage in lending or exchange operations on the Core chain; staking users and DeFi users are completely separate groups. Core risk: relying solely on the single re-staking track makes it difficult to support a complete ecosystem value flywheel. If lending, trading, and other supporting protocols remain inactive, on-chain fee revenue cannot scale; combined with independent validator withdrawals and 69 million ghost tokens looming, even if BTC staking maintains volume, the ecosystem's single-track risk is very high, and competitors in the track are continuously vying for BTC re-staking market share $DYDX
Perpetual futures platforms operate in a demanding environment where traders can shift venues rapidly in search of deeper liquidity, better execution, and lower costs. dYdX must compete on the complete trading experience, not merely its decentralized architecture. Open interest and volume can indicate activity, but neither guarantees durable demand. Market share, liquidity quality, and incentives deserve close attention when assessing the platform’s competitive position.$VRT, will AI server expansion first be bottlenecked by power supply and cooling? Samsung and SK Hynix's performance confirms strong AI hardware demand, but data center deployment is still limited by power, cooling, and delivery cycles. If orders turn into scheduled deployments and service revenue increases, infrastructure suppliers can fulfill demand; if grid connection is delayed or customers cut capital expenditures, backlog orders may not immediately translate into revenue.Term Structure Radar
$BTC mark shows positive basis with a significant shrinkage in the best bid-ask spread. Near-month annualized +7.69%, far-month annualized +5.93%, near end is more expensive; mark near-far spread +1.78%, best bid-ask spread for buy near sell far +0.44%. Positive basis, best bid-ask spread shrinks.
$SOL mark basis is positive, but the best bid-ask spread for buy near sell far is inverted. Near-month annualized +1.9%, far-month annualized +0.44%; mark near-far spread +0.03%, best bid-ask spread for buy near sell far -1.39%. When inverted, trading costs will consume the entire mark spread.$EGLD
Scaling a blockchain is not just about processing transactions; it is about creating an environment where applications can attract users without sacrificing usability. MultiversX has pursued sharding as part of its scaling approach. The harder challenge is turning technical capacity into sustained economic activity. Developer retention, application quality, and organic demand will help determine whether network capabilities translate into lasting ecosystem value.The parent company of the NYSE is entering the market, $HYPE rose 10% in one hour
The hardest news today is not in the crypto circle, but on Wall Street.
Intercontinental Exchange ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, plans to cooperate with Trade.xyz to build a US perpetual contract market on Hyperliquid, and also intends to take a stake in Trade.xyz. Note, this is a plan and still requires regulatory approval, it is not yet launched.
But the market does not wait for approval: within half an hour of the news, 12 whale wallets opened $HYPE positions worth over $1 million, 9 went long about $29.32 million, 3 went short about $8.04 million, with a long-short ratio of about 3.64 to 1.
$HYPE is currently about $91.9 (Beijing time 21:26), opened 24 hours ago at about $80.3, rising more than 10% within one hour to break through $87, with an intraday high of $92.1.
On the other hand, it is worth mentioning: in the past 5 days, a mysterious whale just sold 694,000 $HYPE, about $53.27 million. One side sold $53.27 million in 5 days, the other opened more than $52.7 million in long positions in a few hours—tonight's drama, both sides have placed heavy bets. $STX
Bitcoin’s ecosystem offers opportunities beyond simply holding BTC, but expanding its utility requires balancing innovation with security and usability. Stacks aims to bring smart-contract functionality to Bitcoin-linked applications. Its broader opportunity depends on whether developers can build products that attract real users without making the experience unnecessarily complicated. Brothers, the evening data is here!!! If you find the text too long, you can just look at the charts!
$BTC
- Liquidation fuel: Short positions accumulated $613M above, long positions $362M below
- OI $46.7B, intraday $47.4B → $46.4B → $46.7B; BTC count 676,761 coins, 5-week high, price fell while OI rose 9.2%
- Fee rate +0.0061%, recovering from midday low of 0.0047%
- 24h liquidations $290M, longs account for 62%; today's peak was short liquidations at $50.6M/hour at midnight, long liquidations $84.3M/hour in the morning
- Whale (Hyperliquid) net short, first time since March, this time, short positions should explode!
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ $ETH $ZEC The BTCFi narrative of CORE is very appealing, but on-chain data says: users haven't arrived yet
The story of BTCFi's trillion-dollar idle Bitcoin assets sounds highly imaginative, but the real on-chain activity tears apart the harsh reality: funds participating in BTC consensus staking do not equal active DeFi users. Currently, only a small amount of BTC participates in Satoshi Plus consensus staking, while the daily trading volume on Core chain DEX is extremely low, and daily active DeFi users are less than triple digits. Many users have already withdrawn from on-chain DeFi protocols. Many BTC stakers are only aiming to earn CORE token rewards and do not actually engage in Core chain DeFi operations like swapping or lending. The consensus stakers and on-chain DeFi active users are two completely separate groups. ✅ Narrative highlights: Satoshi Plus self-custodied BTC staking, institutional LST products, SatPay concept — this BTCFi story has strong appeal in a bull market narrative and is a selling point that differentiates it from other BTCFi projects. ❌ Biggest shortcoming: the attractive narrative has not yet translated into sustained active on-chain users. Without stable DeFi users, on-chain fee revenue cannot be continuously generated, making it difficult for the foundation's envisioned revenue buyback value flywheel for CORE to function. Coupled with the continuous withdrawal of independent validators and the looming risk of 69 million ghost tokens, relying solely on narrative makes it hard for the token price to break into a major rally.