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Tonight at 20:30, two major economic data releases from the United States are about to be unveiled! BTC and ETH are once again facing a "macro test"! 📊
On October 29th, tonight at 20:30, the U.S. will release the September PCE inflation data and the preliminary Q3 GDP figures. These two data points, one reflecting prices and the other economic growth, could influence the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate policy.
To put it simply, the PCE is an important indicator for observing price pressures in the U.S. If it doesn't decline fast enough, it means the inflation fire hasn't been fully extinguished, and the Fed may be reluctant to cut rates easily; if inflation continues to cool down, market expectations for easing policies may rise.
GDP shows how well the economic engine is running. If growth slows significantly, the market might worry about the economy losing momentum; but if the economy remains strong while inflation stays high, the Fed may continue to remain cautious.
Both scenarios have complex impacts on the crypto market. 🔥BTC 1H naked K, current price 80040.5. The overall structure shows continuously lower highs, with 81786 as the peak of this rebound. After a long bearish candle breaks down, it enters a bear-dominated range.
Recently, the candlesticks have been oscillating above the 79322 low point. The rebound candlesticks have small bodies and more upper shadows, indicating a weak recovery without strong reversal signals. The key resistance above is 80700–81000, which was the initial platform of the previous decline and serves as the dividing line between bulls and bears.
The support below is at 79322, the most important low in this phase. Holding this level maintains the range-bound oscillation; a solid break below this level extends the bearish trend, targeting around 78800.
Currently, the candlestick center of gravity is consolidating horizontally near 80000, representing a continuation pattern after the decline. The rebound lacks strength and leans more toward gathering momentum for further decline. In terms of trading, do not chase longs; the best shorting opportunities are when the rebound meets resistance in the pressure zone. Only a series of strong bullish candles closing above 81000 will change the short-term bearish structure.The Fed's "holding steady" this time doesn't mean dovish: a 10-2 vote to keep rates at 3.75%–4.00%, with Cook and Harker advocating a 25 basis point hike—disagreement is reflected in the vote.
Official statement: the economy is still strongly expanding, inflation remains high; Waller said no forward guidance will be given, policy depends on new data, and emphasized decisions are not influenced by politics. The market has largely priced in a December rate hike, with U.S. Treasuries, the dollar, and gold all jittery during the press conference. Spot $BTC is fluctuating around $80,100, U.S. stocks show cautious risk appetite before and after; however, spot ETFs have seen net inflows for three consecutive days, about +$137 million on Wednesday, indicating institutional buying hasn't faded post-meeting. Next focus is on Q3 GDP and September PCE around tonight.
Do you trust "waiting for more data will stabilize risk assets" or "the December hike is the real stress test"? #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $BTC $ETH $AR
Permanent data storage serves a different purpose from the temporary storage used by many conventional applications. Arweave is designed around long-term data preservation, creating potential relevance for archival records, decentralized applications, and information that must remain accessible. The challenge is balancing the promise of permanence with actual demand and the economics of storage. Adoption by applications requiring durable records would provide a stronger signal than narrative$AVGO, the growth of AI orders ultimately depends on how much cloud providers are willing to invest. Microsoft's Azure growth of 48% indicates that cloud demand remains strong, but the commercial value of AI chips still depends on cost, deployment speed, and customer returns. If custom accelerators reduce per-inference costs and increase cloud revenue, the growth quality is good; if customers push prices down or capital expenditure returns slow, order growth may not translate into profit. 📊 Current Chart Breakdown
* Price: $HYPE 90.844 (+12.55% today)
* Gains: +17.27% (7D), +72.84% (90D), +120.18% (180D)
* Volume:
Strong buyer volume (411.60k) with moving averages crossing upward.
📉 Past Ups & Downs
* All-Time High (ATH): HYPE reached its all-time high of $97.98 in September 2026.
* Historical Low: Started near $3.81 after launch before rally cycles. Retested recent support around $HYPE 74.465. AMAZON: AWS DEMAND SETS A HIGH BAR
Amazon’s cloud outlook is drawing attention after management said 2026 compute capacity is sold out, most of 2027 is booked, and some 2028 capacity is already reserved. That signals strong AI infrastructure demand. The challenge is scaling fast enough to capture it without putting too much pressure on margins and free cash flow.
#AmazonQ3AWSOutlook 🔥 $MSTR USDT — LONG SETUP
📈 Direction: LONG
Entry: $142–$145
🎯 TP1: $150 | TP2: $158 | TP3: $165
🛑 Stop-loss: $138
Confirmation: Wait for price to break above $145 with strong buying volume.
Why LONG? MSTR is consolidating after a recovery, but price remains below the moving averages. Wait for bullish confirmation before entering.
DYOR. Everyone is selling $ETH .
ETFs: $379M out in 7 days.
The Foundation: sold 2,785 $ETH on Monday.
OGs: moving coins to exchanges.
And Bitfinex whales have been quietly loading longs for weeks.
Someone is very wrong here.
I know which side I'm on.
#SamsungQ3RecordProfit $BTC is moving sideways near $82,000, with weak bullish momentum. The $80,000 support zone has held through several tests, making it a key level to watch. Meanwhile, $ETH continues consolidating around $2,400, while $SOL remains on the radar as investors monitor its ecosystem and fund flows. 🎯 Strategy: Avoid chasing rallies. Watch for potential entries near support and consider taking partial profits around resistance. A breakout needs confirmation before treating it as a trend. Do you think#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹
Strategy will release its Q3 earnings after the US stock market closes tonight, and Beijing will see it early tomorrow morning. Don't get excited about that big number on the books; that's old data from the end of September.
I checked the OKEx BTC index, which was about 58,500 at the end of June and 83,500 at the end of September, up more than 40% in one quarter. They hold over 800,000 coins recorded at fair value, so the good profit this quarter is a given. The "significant rebound" mentioned in the discussion comes from this.
But from the end of September until now, the index has returned to just over 80,000, with each coin losing more than 3,000 USD. According to their 8-K on Monday, the average price was 75,446 USD, and now the unrealized gain is only about 6%. If it falls any further, it will hit the cost line.
At first, I thought the earnings report would boost everyone's confidence. But the numbers don't add up; the report covers the last quarter, and Q4 has already started to decline. I also wrote the day before yesterday that they didn't buy any coins last week and used cash to repurchase STRC.
So when I look at the earnings report tomorrow morning, I'm more interested in whether they mention where the money for buying coins in Q4 will come from. If the announcement next Monday still shows zero purchases, my judgment from the day before yesterday stands; if they start buying directly, I'll admit I was wrong.PCE met expectations, GDP exceeded expectations, rate hike expectations continue to heat up
US September PCE rose 0.5% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year. Core PCE rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, all in line with expectations. Inflation did not continue to surge, but it is still far from the Fed's 2% target.
The US Q3 GDP annualized quarterly rate preliminary estimate was 3.4%, higher than the expected 3.2% and Q2's 2.2%. Initial jobless claims were only 194,000, also better than expected, indicating resilience in the economy and employment.
After the data release, the market's probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in December rose to 81.3%, with only 18.7% expecting no change. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike by January next year reached 29.9%.
However, the consumer side is already under pressure, with personal income growing only 0.2%, spending up 0.5%, savings rate dropping to 3.8%, and real consumption almost flat. The economy appears strong on the surface, but nominal spending is driven more by price increases.
PCE not exceeding expectations can ease short-term panic, but stronger GDP and rising rate hike expectations will continue to suppress BTC and ETH rebound potential. Don't enter lightly before they firmly reclaim key levels. HYPE surged from around 78 to the 89 range today in one go, don't chase it yet.
Here's what I see: OKX current price is about 89.7, 24-hour low 78.2, high 89.8, an increase of about 11%.
At 16:00 Beijing time, that 4-hour K candle pulled from 78.9 close to 88, with a noticeable volume increase.
At the same time, Onchain Lens / TokenPost stats show the protocol has permanently burned about 49.87 million HYPE tokens, about 4.99% of the 1 billion cap; nearly 19,700 tokens were burned in the last 24 hours.
My take: The burn is genuinely positive news, but this jump feels more like emotion plus capital squeezing positions, not a slow accumulation.
What I’m doing: Watching, not chasing.
If it holds above 85–86, it’s stable; if it falls below today’s low near 78, this pulse is considered invalid.
Are you waiting for a pullback to watch, or have you already gotten in and are holding?
$HYPE $BTC $ETH
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 October ETF net outflow exceeded $1 billion, but on 10/23 there was a single-day withdrawal of 169,800 ETH (the largest in four months), with staking ratio hitting a new high of 35.9%.
Short-term institutional selling pressure dominates, while long-term holdings are locked in — the fundamental divergence is a difference in time horizons.
Resistance at $2,453; support at $2,276, watch for a break below with caution around the 21,800 liquidation zone.
What’s your take? Let’s discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $HYPE Don't rush to short, first target 90, wait for it to break through and then observe the trend to decide how to enter.
HYPE unlocked $790 million worth of tokens, this news was observed in advance, followed by a large inflow of funds, the on-chain funds are all green, the trend is indeed fierce, but for now I still remain bullish on this trend. #AWS算力需求旺盛，亚马逊Q3财报有哪些看点？ The outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting on October 28 was leaked in advance: a 90% probability of maintaining the 3.75%–4.00% rate unchanged, and the result was exactly that. DOGE clapped along—bouncing from 0.078 to 0.080, then retracting to 0.0797 as the applause faded. My assessment: this isn’t a reaction, it’s politeness.
Whether holding steady counts as good news depends on whether there’s a surprise. This meeting had no surprises and was actually a "hawkish enhanced version": the dissenting votes were from those who thought it wasn’t hawkish enough, the economic description was upgraded from "solid" to "strong," and the probability of a rate hike in December is 70-80%—in plain language, it’s not that they won’t raise rates, just that they won’t do it this time. A meeting whose script can be recited verbatim can’t deliver the surprises needed for good news.
What’s more interesting is DOGE’s composure. After dropping nearly 90% from its peak, the chips scared off by the rate hike have long fled, leaving holders who watch Bitcoin’s mood, community enthusiasm, and ecosystem progress. No matter how loud the Fed’s voice is, it’s just white noise to this dog’s ears—the marginal effect of macro narratives diminishes like this.
So the real information from this event isn’t what was said in Washington, but what $DOGE didn’t do. Going forward, what’s worth watching is whether inflation data throws out lines off the script, and the activity on DOGE’s own chain. #DailyOrbit Money is coming in, but the price is falling? BlackRock's "one-man show" awkward situation
Funds are flowing in, but the coin price is dropping. What kind of trick is this market playing?
Looking at the data from October 28, Eastern US time: The US spot $BTC ETF net inflow was $137 million, with a total of about $424 million over three consecutive days, turning October's monthly figure positive (net inflow of $111 million). But don't get too excited—of that $137 million, BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for $136 million, a staggering 99%! Apart from a bit from Bitwise, almost everything else is near zero. What does this indicate? It means it's not a flourishing market with many players; BlackRock is "carrying the flag alone."
In contrast, $ETH is simply unbearable to watch. On the same day, it saw an outflow of $21.4 million, three consecutive days of outflows, and a cumulative October loss of $1.35 billion, completely abandoned by institutions.
Looking at the macro side, the Federal Reserve announced on October 29 early morning that it would hold steady, keeping interest rates tightly between 3.75% and 4.00%. Although some money has returned, rates have not loosened at all, and macro pressure still looms overhead. This has led to a highly fragmented phenomenon: BTC's current price is about 80,100, but it fell 1.6% in 24 hours.
Intelligence analyst's view:
The current situation is that "institutions are stubbornly supporting on the left side, but the price simply doesn't respond." The incremental buying from ETFs cannot offset the overall selling pressure caused by high macro interest rates.
Strategy: firmly observe and do not chase:
Don't catch a falling knife just because ETFs are flowing in. When will this market truly improve? Let's discuss in the comments. BTC is still hovering around the 80,000 mark, with ETH and SOL moving sideways as well. Even after the data release, no clear direction was given.
Tonight's PCE basically landed as expected, while GDP was a bit stronger. Logically, there should be debates about "hawkish or dovish," but the night session remains the same: no crash, no bounce, just hovering around 80,000. The US stock market has already opened, but the crypto space seems unaware, with sentiment even drier than the market.
I used to easily mess up at times like this—thinking "the numbers are out, there should be some movement," only to add positions and end up with a false breakout, holding the position and losing my mind. That kind of loss is the most frustrating: not because of wrong directional judgment, but because mistaking "waiting to end" for "must trade." Meeting expectations doesn't equal good news, and a stronger GDP doesn't mean an immediate crash. This kind of grinding night session is best for watching, not revenge trading, and definitely not using post-dinner boredom as a reason to enter the market.
If you can stay empty-handed, keep sitting tight; if you have positions, don't add to gamble on impulses. Wait for real volume and clear direction before following, which is much cheaper than guessing around the 80,000 mark.
You now: keep empty-handed, or have you already taken a position? $BTC $ETH $SOL Recently, regarding the performance of altcoins, to be honest, I don't think it's time to rush and declare the altcoin season has arrived.
Looking at recent data, on October 27, BTC's market dominance was around 60.49%; the ratio of altcoin spot trading volume relative to BTC has dropped from nearly 4 times at the end of September to about 3 times now. The altcoin season index is currently only 51, still some distance from the usual 75 used to judge the altcoin season.
My own view is that the biggest issue now is not whether a certain altcoin can suddenly surge, but whether there is a batch of coins that can consistently outperform BTC.
Recently, occasionally seeing a coin surge sharply can easily make people think the market is rotating to altcoins. But a single coin rising and the entire altcoin market warming up are actually two different things.
For now, I won't rush to chase just because a few coins have risen. If I were to play altcoins, I would first look at whether BTC's market dominance is continuously declining, and then see if the price increases are starting to spread to more coins.
After all, what altcoin markets fear most is not missing out on buying, but thinking a bull market has arrived when in fact only a few coins are performing.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#altcoins #cryptomarket @八佰哥爱理财 OKX big shot once again optimistic about SanDisk's earnings report. Yesterday, Google's earnings report was a bombshell, while SK Hynix's earnings exceeded expectations. A friend afar brings a distant land near. This is a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice; recently, I've observed SanDisk grinding at the bottom, retail investors are watching, institutions are building a base. Now with memory shortages, SanDisk's outperformance is undeniable. When it exceeds expectations, retail investors rush in, driving the price up and then down again, consolidating sideways with repeated shakeouts. The bulls' faith is that no matter how much you shake it, they cling on like leeches, patiently waiting for takeoff. Below, I share Ba Bai Ge's view: SanDisk's earnings report is about to be revealed! Ba Bai Ge: The real test is coming, I still favor storage chips! Tonight, US stock storage chip giant SanDisk (SNDK) will face an important test—the Q1 earnings report for fiscal year 2027! Why has Ba Bai Ge been focusing on SanDisk? Because I believe the AI era requires not only powerful computing but also massive data storage. Nvidia provides computing power, storage companies provide data infrastructure; both sectors offer long-term investment opportunities worth studying. Let's first look at SanDisk's last quarter report card: revenue reached $8.965 billion, a 51% quarter-over-quarter increase, non-GAAP gross margin at 84.6%, non-GAAP earnings per share at $39.25. Such growth speed is indeed impressive! Even more noteworthy, SanDisk's management previously guided this quarter's revenue to be as high as $10.3 to $10.8 billion, with non-GAAP EPS expected between $44 and $46. What does this mean? As$AKE set the stop loss at the cost price 0.02383, which is the wrong place for 20x leverage.
Calculate clearly: the initial margin corresponds to a 5% fluctuation, a floating profit of 260.17% is equivalent to a buffer of 2.6 times the margin, which can withstand a relative increase of about 18.01% from the opening price — corresponding to 0.0260, which is 9.1% higher than the cost 0.02383.
This means: this position can fully withstand "falling and then rising back to the original point," and only after rising another 9.1% will it break even. The real danger zone is not at the cost price, but at 0.0260.
Follow-up strategy: set the observation point at 0.0225 (the relay point during this round of decline), not 0.0260. Reduce position when it stands above — at that time, the floating profit is only about 111%, no need to wait for the break-even line. Reduce a batch at the 0.02 integer support below, and reduce again at 0.018. $BTC $ETH
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 What does this chart mean? It shows that for $BTC long-term holders (LTH) who have held BTC for more than 155 days, how much of their cost basis is concentrated within "±10% of the current price." Taking the current price as 80k, ±10% means the price range is 72k-88k.
Currently, data shows that about 2.04 million BTC from LTH have cost prices within this mentioned price range. The total amount of LTH BTC is 16.38 million. So this portion accounts for 12.43%.
The higher the bars below, the more "old coins" have cost bases exactly within the "±10% of the current price" range. Gray = normal, orange = relatively crowded, red = historically rare crowding. The big red bar on the far right is the 12.43%. Such density has rarely appeared historically. By the way, each bar is spaced one month apart. The recent big red bar represents this month’s situation, and there are still 2 days left this month.
At 69K, which was November 2024, long-term coins were also very densely concentrated near the current price, and within a few days, the price quickly rose about 10,000 points.
Now, long-term coins have been squeezed to new highs; a breakout or a pullback could easily trigger a very intense price movement.
But please note, this is not a buy or sell signal; it only indicates a tight cost structure and potentially increased volatility. The direction is not necessarily upward; a sharp drop could also be very strong.$SNDK
SK Hynix expects memory shortages to continue until 2030, boosting storage stocks again.
SK Hynix anticipates memory shortages will persist through 2030, with Micron and SanDisk strengthening, as the market refocuses on storage supply and demand.
I am cautiously bullish: the news reinforces the current strong market, with both 1H and 4H charts showing bullish alignment and prices above EMA20; however, the long-short ratio of 2.76 is somewhat crowded. I am closely watching whether the 1380.7 resistance can be broken and the 1363.7 support holds.
OKX data: SNDK 1,378.00 USDT, 24h +1.67%, volume 1.05B USDT.
Do you think the expectation of storage shortages can continue to support the sector?
Not investment advice. DYOR. #SanDiskQ1StorageGrowth $SNDK $MU
SanDisk earnings tonight, can it still stand alone?
Recent trend in the storage sector: SK Hynix and Samsung both exceeded revenue expectations, but net profit lagged behind. This morning Samsung did just that, dragging SanDisk and the sector down.
Last night Google took a hit first: revenue and EPS below expectations, free cash flow -$9.07 billion, after-hours drop over 10%. AI returns are being questioned, cooling sentiment in tech and semiconductors.
SanDisk is expected to report revenue around $10.7 billion tonight, EPS about $46.2, gross margin 83%-85%. Revenue is very likely solid, but capital now focuses more on profit, costs, and guidance. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has weakened continuously recently, sector sentiment is fragile.
Two scenarios:
After earnings, first surge, then profit-taking;
Or open with a direct drop, following the trend to shake out positions.
Strategy: mainly short from highs. Aggressive short at current price, conservative short after rebound near 1400-1420, target 1300. I will analyze the data as soon as it comes out tonight.$AXTI Damn it! Looking at this AXTI order book makes me shake my head. There are a bunch of fake orders hanging above 60.6, canceled and placed repeatedly. Is the manipulator playing hide and seek here? It's a pure capital showdown; the candlestick chart looks like an ECG, clearly shaking out retail investors to the point of doubting their lives.💡
From the market perspective, the selling pressure around 60.6 is solid, volume can't keep up, and any push upward just serves the shorts. My plan: short directly near 60.6, set stop loss at 61.8, don't be greedy, exit if broken, always use stop loss!
Don't stubbornly hold long positions in this kind of wild stock; follow the capital flow to make profits. If you want to get in, click the token market card below, we'll secretly set an ambush, control your position size.
This content is only my personal review and does not constitute investment advice.
👇👇👇Will $SPCX cause a direct flood at the opening of the US stock market tonight?
The short-selling strategy after the rebound this morning for Caibao, with a reference point around 145, reached a high of 144.76. The short-selling strategy has been validated again! Friends who placed short orders can continue holding; the downtrend has already started!
Although the recent big rocket's positive news continues to ferment, the rocket has already surged once, and the good news is basically all out. What else do you think the big rocket can use to rebound? The rebound strength is as weak as a weakling!
So once it rebounds, boldly go short! The target is around 140!$BEAT Is the familiar Audition game back again?
The Audition game, which Caibao loves the most, has been frequently jumping up and down the gain and loss charts these days. What exactly is the main force playing at?
Once a hundredfold monster coin, Caibao also took a profit from it! After 4 months, it has made a strong comeback. The daily chart looks like it's repeatedly pumping and dumping at the bottom, and the hourly chart shows four consecutive waves of pumping, each rising about 30% before falling back.
Moreover, Audition has a token unlock on November 1st [more chips flowing into the market will cause panic selling and profit-taking because early investors have low costs]. It is not ruled out that the main force is hyping up the news to stir up heat, then after a pullback, buying chips to pump and then sell off.
In the short term, it's better to wait and see if the 0.109 level can be effectively broken through. You can short around this resistance level! Is $HYPE's bull market coming? Targeting $100!
Previously, Caibao advised everyone to build a base position at 79 in the spot market, and finally there's a big surge! This rally in HYPE is mainly due to ICE teaming up with Trade.xyz, preparing to bring perpetual contracts into the compliant US market. It's a new catalyst, but just a plan and hasn't been implemented yet.
So when this news came out, funds went crazy speculating, pushing the price up 10% in a short time. Plus, HYPE has token unlocking today, so the news followed? Will the main players pump the price to sell off?
From Caibao's perspective, probably not. After all, HYPE is the first choice for many big holders, and institutional whales are holding their chips tightly. Its long-term development is still promising, so those who have built positions in the spot market don't need to rush.
Caibao's advice: For those currently out of position, don't chase this sharp rally; wait for a pullback to gradually accumulate spot!The Federal Reserve's preference for inflation is rising again! September PCE about 3.6%, GDP about 3.4% exceeds expectations
BEA (Beijing around 20:30) released: September PCE year-on-year about 3.6% (previous about 3.4%), core PCE about 3.1%; Q3 GDP preliminary annualized about 3.4% (expected about 3.2%). No change last night, today growth is relatively strong, inflation is still rising—I think don't rush to dismiss the December rate hike risk as empty talk. Spot BTC about $79,939 (Beijing 20:58, Coinbase).
$BTC $ETH #谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期
$GOOGL Google's earnings report shows strong growth in cloud business, but AI computing power investments suppress short-term profits, a negative one-time release.
You can start with a small position near 288, add more at 275, with take profits at 311/320/332 respectively, and stop loss if it falls below 268; for spot long-term holdings, no stop loss is necessary.
274 is a strong support, build positions in batches, and avoid placing orders at round numbers. $FIL **Did nothing all day today**
BTC hovered around 80000 the whole day, and I didn't make a single move.
Still holding a long position with an average price of 80728, now at 80090, floating loss of 640 points. Stop loss at 79200 hasn't been hit, target of 83000 hasn't been reached.
Twice during the session it dropped below 80000, but both times it recovered. This is called noise, not a breakout. A real breakout requires two consecutive 1-hour closes below, and with volume.
So I neither cut nor added. The spot order at 78000 is still hanging; I'll buy if it hits, otherwise I'll wait.
The hardest part of contracts is never opening a position, but resisting the urge to move after opening one. Today I didn't make a cent, nor did I lose a cent.
How many times did you trade today?#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？
I believe that SanDisk's growth logic still has support in the short term, but what truly determines whether the stock price can continue to strengthen is not how impressive past performance has been, but whether growth can continue to be realized in the coming quarters.
The ongoing construction of AI data centers is driving growth in enterprise SSD and high-performance storage demand. As AI model scales expand, the importance of data storage and read efficiency is continuously increasing, with storage gradually evolving from traditional hardware support to an essential component of AI infrastructure.
However, it is important to note that high growth does not mean high growth can continue indefinitely.
On one hand, AI storage demand still has room to expand; on the other hand, the market is already pricing in future performance expectations. Once demand growth slows, price increases fall short of expectations, or supply-demand dynamics change, even if the company’s performance continues to grow, the stock price may face pressure due to overvaluation.
Next, I will focus on three key indicators:
1. NAND flash prices: whether the price increase trend can continue, directly affecting profitability
2. Enterprise SSD demand: whether AI data center investments can translate into sustained orders
3. Gross margin and performance guidance: whether growth can truly convert into profit, not just revenue expansion
My view is that SanDisk’s core logic remains the growth in storage demand driven by AI, but investment decisions should not only look at short-term performance spikes, but also assess what stage this growth cycle is in.
Performance determines fundamentals, expectations determine valuation, and capital determines how far the stock price can go in the short term. $SNDK After a series of massive sell-offs, the fund flows of spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a stunning reversal. On-chain data shows institutional buyers have net purchased for three consecutive days, halting the previous selling spree. $BTC
Detailed statistics from the cash flow statement:
- $137.3 million inflow on the most recent day.
- $176 million recorded the day before.
- $110.3 million initiated the recovery plan.
- Total net deposits over 3 trading days amount to $423.6 million.
- $136 million mainly belongs to BlackRock's IBIT fund.
This turnaround occurred after a large-scale sell-off exceeding $635 million in a single day. The positive cash flow reflects extremely strong buying pressure exerted by Wall Street giants after the stock price fell back to a strong support level.
With panic temporarily subsiding, short-term accumulation opportunities have emerged. However, risks remain evident, as liquidity for most other funds like FBTC and ARKB is nearly zero, meaning BlackRock currently bears the market's entire liquidity. Do not recklessly go all in before fund flows balance out.$SNDK $SKHYNIX Others are still shorting at the foot of the mountain, while the long positions are popping champagne!
Yesterday, Caibao already said the storage sector will definitely rise! Definitely rise! The market again confirmed Caibao's view, with SanDisk hitting the target of 1420 precisely, reaching a high of 1421. Hynix long positions entered at 1115 also made good profits! An excellent point to take profits!
Currently, SanDisk is the only one in the storage sector that hasn't announced earnings yet, but the funds have already speculated in advance! Hynix's earnings exceeded expectations, driving the entire sector up, and the market has already priced in some of the good news.
Therefore, Caibao believes now is not the time to bottom-fish and go long; waiting for a rebound to short is more cost-effective. Hynix can be shorted on a rebound to 1150, and SanDisk should wait until after tomorrow's earnings announcement to short heavily!#三星Q3营业利润创新高，净利润不及预期
Samsung delivered a highly polarized Q3 report, with operating profit surpassing 100 trillion KRW for the first time, setting a historic high and soaring 783% year-on-year. Revenue also set records for the fourth consecutive quarter. The core driver of the market rally is AI storage, with HBM4 ramping up and server DRAM price increases; the semiconductor sector contributed the vast majority of profits, supported by high value-added storage products.
However, beneath the impressive operating profit, net profit fell significantly short of market expectations, mainly dragged down by financial expenses and high income taxes, compounded by exchange rate factors eroding earnings. Although the mobile phone and panel businesses showed signs of recovery, their scale is far from enough to offset the profit gap caused by the storage boom.
The company stated it will continue to increase capital expenditure on storage, betting on the HBM track, judging that the AI storage shortage cycle can still be maintained. Market concerns are also clear: HBM competition remains fierce, with SK Hynix closely pursuing. Once subsequent supply is released and price hikes slow, maintaining high profits will be difficult.
Overall, the storage bull market continues, but net profit falling short of expectations will suppress short-term capital sentiment. This round of the market has shifted from simply speculating on price hikes to testing profit realization and customer validation progress. The storage mainline remains highly prosperous but will experience increasingly volatile fluctuations.$ETH brothers, Wash spoke last night, and the market is still the familiar formula: rise first then fall, with wicks up and down. The 12-hour liquidation data shows both longs and shorts getting liquidated, this is the mainstream volatility! Ethereum just broke below 2300 but quickly recovered, it seems the support at this level is still quite strong. Next, let's see if it can truly hold steady!
But in the storage sector, $SNDK and $SKHYNIX Hynix's performance is indeed strong, but be careful not to chase after all the good news! It's unrealistic to go long now; you can wait to short on the rebound!
The market has opportunities every day, no need to rush! One word: wait! #GoogleQ3MixedResults
Alphabet’s Q3 earnings report delivered a textbook definition of a "mixed bag," triggering intense debate across financial markets. On one hand, Alphabet posted staggering top-line growth, crossing a landmark half-trillion-dollar annual revenue run rate propelled by a historic explosion in Google Cloud. On the other hand, eye-watering artificial intelligence infrastructure spending, a dip in net income, and negative free cash BTC 4H, current price 80000.1, the major structure is a downward-shifting ABC corrective wave. Wave A fell from 86400 to 79700, with an internal 5-subwave decline; Wave B rebounded to 82400, representing a weak a-b-c correction with limited rebound strength. Currently running Wave C, subwaves C1 to C4 are complete, now in the C5 downward phase.
The SQZMOM momentum indicator has slightly turned green, bearish momentum continues, no bottom reversal signal yet. Core resistance is 80400–80800, the C4 rebound high zone; price stagnates upon reaching this level, making it a priority shorting area; key support is at 79700, with downside targets at 79000–79300, and an extreme reference at 78400.
Only a volume-backed break and hold above 80800 would invalidate the Wave C decline assumption, shifting the market to a wide-range consolidation; if it breaks below 79700, the C5 downward space opens. Overall bearish bias, not suitable for chasing longs, wait for rebound pressure before positioning; a break above 82400 would directly overturn this wave analysis. $BTC $ETH $SOL The $80,000 defense battle has begun! The Fed's hawkish signals combined with tech stock earnings reports are exerting dual pressure, causing the crypto market to be under broad stress. The fear and greed index remains at a neutral 51, with bulls and bears fiercely tugging at a critical psychological threshold.
BTC: Volatile fluctuations around $80,000, briefly surging to $81,800 before the meeting, then dropping to $79,600 within hours after the decision, with a 24-hour low of $79,634. The daily RSI is about 47.6, in the neutral zone; MACD shows a bearish alignment but with a converging histogram. Resistance is near the SMA20 ($81,934), and support is around the lower Bollinger Band at $79,811.
ETH: Fell below the $2,300 mark, down 2.42% in 24 hours, with four consecutive monthly declines totaling 12%. However, on-chain data shows 36% of circulating supply locked in staking at a historic high, accelerating the shrinkage of tradable chips; a bottoming volume signal has appeared on the 4-hour chart, with multiple tests of the lower Bollinger Band at $2,310 holding firm, indicating bearish momentum is waning.
BCH: Leading the altcoin decline this round, plunging nearly 8% in 24 hours, dropping straight from a high of $304.28 to a low of $275.32, currently around $279.87, breaking below the 200-day moving average ($286.19), clearly signaling a weakening mid-term trend.
The combined macro headwinds and tech earnings shocks are the core logic suppressing risk assets. If BTC holds $80,000, the market still has room to breathe; if it breaks down, altcoins will face even greater relative pressure #美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $GOOGL $SNDK
Nasdaq 100 futures plunge: Google "AI money burn" alarm sounds!!!!
The main negative reasons are as follows:
First, Google exploded: Q3 revenue and EPS both missed expectations, free cash flow plummeted to -$9.07 billion, full-year CapEx guidance as high as $205 billion, AI investment returns questioned, pre-market drop over 10%.
Second, there is the industry chain transmission: storage chips (Micron, SanDisk, etc. down over 3%), Broadcom (Marvell down over 9%), AI computing power rental write-downs!
Plus the hawkish Fed impact: Waller rejects forward guidance, 2 out of 10 votes support rate hikes, December rate hike probability rises!
So the tech stock valuation re-rating has begun, Nasdaq futures down more than 1.3%, if tonight's PCE data exceeds expectations, risk asset pressure will further intensify!
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 When I look at prediction markets, I can't help but pay more attention to those headlines like “Bitcoin suddenly surges.” Unlike the usual buying coins and waiting for a rise, these have deadlines, and if it doesn't happen by then, it just doesn't happen. Low-probability events somehow make people think: what if? The potential returns look tempting, the stories sound good, and as more people buy in, the implied probability reflected in the price also gets pushed up, which doesn't necessarily mean the event is that certain. Just watching it, I have to admit this kind of excitement is quite enticing. But when it comes to the time left for it to actually happen, why does no one want to talk about that?Amazon will release its Q3 earnings report (July–September) after the market closes on October 29 Eastern Time, which is after 04:00 on October 30 (Friday) Beijing Time, with the conference call at 05:00.
Last quarter, AWS revenue was $42.23 billion, up 37% year-over-year, which the company said was the fastest growth in 18 quarters. According to the company's constant currency basis, AWS growth has accelerated for four consecutive quarters since Q3 last year: 20%, 24%, 28%, and 37%. Last quarter, AWS operating profit was $16.6 billion, with an operating margin of 39.4%. AWS revenue in Q3 last year was $33.01 billion; this quarter's 37% year-over-year increase corresponds to about $45.2 billion.
The company's guidance given in July for this quarter: sales of $197–202 billion, up 9%–12% year-over-year; excluding the impact of two Prime Day events over two years, the growth rate would be nearly 4 percentage points higher; operating profit of $22.5–26.5 billion, compared to $17.4 billion last year and $27.5 billion last quarter. The guidance assumes no impact from the revaluation of energy derivative contracts. According to CNBC citing LSEG data on October 25, the market expects this quarter's earnings per share to be roughly flat year-over-year, with double-digit revenue growth. #AWS算力需求旺盛，亚马逊Q3财报有哪些看点？ $XAU US GDP explodes, strong employment, will gold break below 4000 tonight?
The two data points just released from the US are too strong: GDP rose to 3.4%, and initial jobless claims are only 194,000, indicating the economy is ridiculously good. This is very bearish for gold! With such a strong economy, the Federal Reserve definitely won't be in a hurry to cut rates, and high interest rates will continue to weigh down gold, making it hard to rise.
Gold prices are currently being suppressed tightly, with no strength even for a rebound, hovering around 4036. As long as it doesn't break below the 4024 support, it can hold for a while; once it breaks, it will continue to fall.
My strategy is aggressive short near 4030, and a conservative short opportunity if the rebound can't surpass around 4045. Stop loss above 4055, first watch 4025, if broken then continue to watch 4000.
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 🔥 After Google's earnings report, the stock price fell; cloud business is growing rapidly, but net profit and EPS are under pressure, and AI investment returns are once again the focus👀
➡︎ Amazon, Strategy, and 3 other companies will successively release earnings reports tonight. Can their performance exceed expectations?
📊 Go to Outcomes to participate in predictions and complete tasks to earn XP. For more earnings highlights, Orbit continues to track!#d❗️❗️❗️Early morning Fed reveals major internal divisions! Crypto market surges then plunges, repeatedly tugging at the 80,000 level
Last night, the Fed held rates steady as expected at 3.75%-4.00%, but the vote showed a clear 10:2 split, with two members directly supporting a 25 basis point hike, signaling a strong hawkish stance. The market completely abandoned hopes for a rate cut by year-end, clearly expecting high rates to persist long-term, with a rate hike still possible in December.
This statement directly influenced crypto market moves: Bitcoin $BTC briefly surged to a high of 81,800 after the decision, then quickly fell below 80,000, hitting a low of 79,600—a classic case of good news turning into bad news. Overall crypto market sentiment weakened rapidly, major coins collectively pulled back, altcoins fell even more, and contract short-term spikes and shakeouts became very frequent.
🤔 The core reason is simple: U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened simultaneously. In a high interest rate environment, risk assets like crypto lack sustained upward momentum. The inflow enthusiasm previously driven by ETFs has cooled off; now macro interest rates dominate, making any rebound a short-term pulse, unlikely to develop into a trend.
The tech sector divergence in U.S. stocks also indirectly affected crypto risk sentiment: Microsoft’s earnings beat expectations and rose nearly 3% after hours, while Google’s disappointing results caused a nearly 10% drop, raising overall market risk aversion and further suppressing crypto bulls. Coupled with the latest core PCE inflation at 3.1%, stubbornly high, the Fed simply dares not ease. $SNDK $HYPE $SNDK pullback is about to end! The final round of decline will finish, then it will rise again! Public layout!
Why wait for 1166? The reasons are as follows:
First, risk-reward ratio. Entering now at 1278, the resistance from 1300 to 1366 is all trapped positions, so the upside space is limited; if the stop loss is set at 1080, the risk is nearly 200 points. But waiting for the drop to 1166, which is a previous strong chip concentration area with a very clear defense line, setting stop loss at 1080 only bears a risk of over 80 points to aim for 200 points profit, making this trade worthwhile.
Second, technical demand. This wave surged over 100 points from the bottom rapidly, short-term indicators are already overbought, and profit-taking could dump anytime. 1278 is most likely just an intermediate rebound; it must retest a second time to wash out floating chips.
Third, fundamental logic. The AI demand for storage chips hasn't collapsed, and long-term agreements remain. This drop is a misvaluation caused by the overall tech stock sell-off in the US market. 1166 is the golden pit after emotional selling and squeezing out liquidity; buying more here has the highest chance of winning.
#SanDiskMSCIRebalance
My execution discipline is very strict: place an order near 1166 to enter, unconditional stop loss at 1080, and admit defeat if it breaks down effectively. The first target is 1260; if broken, look at 1366. At 1260, close half the position to withdraw principal, let the rest run for profit. For every 50 points increase in price, raise the stop loss by 30 points to lock in profits tightly. #SanDiskMSCIRebalanceEffective, NAND valuation under focusOIL WATCH: HORMUZ REMAINS A CRITICAL RISK
A proposed peace plan could reopen the Strait of Hormuz sooner, but sanctions and nuclear negotiations remain unresolved. UBS has raised its year-end Brent forecast to $110 as supply risks and shipping costs persist. Oil’s next move may depend less on promises and more on whether reliable transit actually resumes.
#HormuzReopeningPlan Currently, for those wanting to short $ETH, a better position is not to chase at the current price directly, but to wait for a rebound to around 2,350–2,370, and consider after confirming it can't go higher, with a stop loss set above 2,400. This way, even if squeezed, the loss is controllable.
For those wanting to go long, there's no need to rush to buy at 2,310 either. You can wait for a stop-fall signal around 2,280–2,300 (such as a clear stop-fall candlestick on the 4-hour chart, or a second bottom test without breaking lower), then consider a light position, with a clear stop loss set below 2,250 or 2,220.
The signals to really watch are actually simple: on the upside, see if 2,425 can be reclaimed; on the downside, watch if 2,250 will be broken with volume. Between these two levels, ETH is more likely to be in a repeated tug-of-war consolidation pattern rather than a clean one-sided trend. Leverage in contracts is most vulnerable to losses on both sides in this environment, so position size is more important than direction.Set the stop loss for $ZEC at the cost price of 1290.66, which is the wrong place for 50x leverage.
Calculate clearly: the initial margin corresponds to a 2% fluctuation, a floating profit of 74.34% equals an extra buffer of 1.487 percentage points, totaling about 3.49% (relative to the opening price). From the current price of 1271.47, it needs to rise to about 1309.7 to trigger liquidation—1.48% higher than the cost price of 1290.66.
This means: this position can fully withstand "falling and then rising back to the original point," even going up another 1.48%. The real danger zone is not at the cost price but at 1309.7.
But this buffer is not wide: ZEC's intraday volatility of 2%–3% is normal, and a moderate rebound can consume most of it.
Subsequent strategy: set the observation point at 1290 (an integer level + coinciding with the cost price), not 1309.7. Reduce position once it stands above—that time the floating profit will only have a very small part left, no need to wait for the break-even line. Reduce some at 1250 below, and reduce more at 1200. $SOL $ETH
#美联储维持利率不变，12月加息分歧升温 $MU, will the strong prices of AI memory trigger the next round of oversupply? Samsung and SK Hynix's chip profits hit record highs this quarter, indicating favorable demand and product mix; however, high profits will also stimulate capacity expansion. The key to cycle judgment lies in the proportion of HBM, long-term orders, and traditional DRAM supply discipline. If demand for high-bandwidth memory grows and supply expansion is controllable, profit margins will be supported; if capital expenditures lead to too rapid supply release, the market boom may have peaked.