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Federal Reserve decision approaching, BTC continues weak consolidation: short positions mostly closed, waiting for event outcome
Beijing time, evening of October 29, 2026, BTC quoted at 80,252.01 USDT, down about 0.81% in 24 hours, intraday low once touched 79,710 USDT. Technically, daily RSI(6) fell back to 37.28, MACD still in a death cross structure, price below MA7 and MA25, short-term trend is weak.
However, the super trend has not fully turned bearish, and large capital still shows net inflow, indicating there is support below. The market currently seems to be compressing volatility and repeatedly pricing expectations before the macro event, with direction not fully confirmed.
ETH is also weak, daily MACD death cross, super trend downward; ZEC decline is relatively more obvious. Although its moving average structure is still bullish and MACD golden cross has not failed, net capital outflow means volatility and pullback risks still need caution.
Before the Federal Reserve announcement, liquidity, policy wording, and risk appetite may trigger rapid two-way volatility. Currently, I have closed about 99% of short positions, only keeping a very small position to observe; if there is no obvious rapid rise with volume support, I am not in a hurry to re-establish positions and also avoid heavy bets before the event. Brothers, are you getting dizzy from this sideways market?
Staring at the 2330 level all afternoon, your eyes must be turning presbyopic, right?
Up and down, dozens of points stabbing back and forth, $ETH just dropped to 2300 and you thought it was going to cascade down, but then it pulled back to 2330.
Just when you thought it was going to break through, it got knocked down again.
This isn’t a market, this is a manipulator "tiring out the hawks"!
They want to break the mentality of both bulls and bears, making you give up your chips in frustration.
But if you look closely at the trend, since the drop from 2391, aren’t the highs continuously getting lower?
This sideways movement now isn’t building a bottom; it’s a "downtrend continuation" gathering strength.
The moving averages above still press down like the Five Finger Mountain, and the volume below has shrunk like a stagnant pool.
Sideways for too long must lead to a drop, that’s an iron rule.
The Damocles sword of the December rate hike still hangs overhead; the big picture hasn’t changed at all.
All these sideways moves and weak rebounds are just illusions created by manipulators to trick retail investors into taking the fall.
The worst thing in trading is to be led by short-term fluctuations.
This grinding market is filtering out those without patience.
Don’t chase longs, and don’t trade frequently.
Hold your shorts firmly and maintain your defense line.
Once the manipulators exhaust retail investors’ patience, a big bearish candle will naturally arrive as expected, breaking below 2292, and below that lies an endless abyss!
$BTC
$ZEC
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Strong US growth, sticky inflation — a tough mix for BTC.
Q3 GDP grew 3.4% annualized, beating the 3.1% forecast. Meanwhile, headline PCE inflation accelerated to 3.6% YoY, with core PCE at 3.1%.
That gives the Fed less room to turn dovish. The next test: can BTC hold up if markets price in a December hike?After reading, I noted three things. My first reaction wasn’t that the trading hours have been extended, but rather: who will monitor collateral over the weekend? I’m more concerned about this piece of infrastructure.
1. Chainlink 24/7 is now live, providing round-the-clock on-chain market data coverage for stocks, commodities, and other RWAs during weekends and holidays. Aave is the first partner, using it for 24/7 collateral management. I think this is more practical for on-chain lending risk control than just hype.
2. Lending risk doesn’t clock out with traditional markets. If data can be continuously and reliably updated, then collateral valuation can have fewer blind spots in time, which is why I value it.
3. But 24/7 data doesn’t mean 24/7 liquidity. Having a valuation doesn’t mean collateral can be sold anytime. I’ll first look at risk control implementation. What would everyone add as a fourth point: data sources during market closures, or handling of abnormal prices?Family, don't miss a key point this week: on Friday, $BTC and $ETH options totaling nearly $11.7 billion will settle.📌
First, the "maximum pain point": the price level where retail investors suffer the most and market makers feel the most comfortable. This time BTC is looking at 78000, ETH at 2500.🎯
Recently, the market has been a tug-of-war, with neither bulls nor bears able to break through decisively. But once these huge options settle, the market will likely use the opportunity to choose a direction. Before settlement, market makers also have an incentive to push prices toward the pain point.⚖️
If BTC strays too far from 78000, volatility tends to amplify, increasing the chances of stop-loss sweeps up and down; if it’s already near that level, the remaining time will likely see prices oscillate around the pain point.🔄
On such a big settlement day, the biggest fear is a sudden "freak out": a spike one second, then a crash the next. Don’t max out leverage, don’t rush to bet on one side. Wait for the settlement to finish, then watch for the real direction.⚠️🚫#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 $BTC Damn, Bitcoin's market today is really a bit exhausting. When I first checked the market, I almost thought it was going to break down directly.
It's almost 11 PM now, the latest quote is around 79,853 USD, down about 1% in 24 hours. Today it has been fluctuating between 79,600 and 81,500 all day. In the afternoon, it even directly broke below the key 80,000 mark, hitting a low of 79,614 USD, which scared quite a few people.
Actually, today's movement is not surprising at all. Last night, the Federal Reserve just dropped a "hawkish pause" bomb, verbally saying no rate hike, but in the vote, two people directly demanded a rate hike. The market now is betting the probability of a rate hike in December is almost 80%. US Treasury yields surged past 5% again. In this high interest rate environment, no one wants to hold non-yielding risky assets like Bitcoin; institutions are quietly reducing positions to avoid risk.
Looking at the market, the US buying side is weak. Coinbase's premium index has been negative for 33 consecutive days, indicating Americans have little willingness to enter the market. The previous small net inflows from ETFs couldn't absorb the sell-off. The price was pushed down after reaching 81,500, which is exactly the average cost line of the previous ETF inflows. Now most people who bought through ETFs are at a loss, and whenever there's a rebound, some want to run, causing heavy selling pressure.
But it's not all bad. Around 79,000, many are still bottom-fishing and buying. Institutions are also buying on dips, but with little capital willing to push the price up, it is expected to keep fluctuating around 80,000 in the short term Bitcoin ETF inflows are back — but price isn’t confirming the strength.
US spot BTC ETFs attracted $137.3M on Oct. 28, marking a third straight day of inflows. Yet BTC remains under pressure after the Fed held rates steady.
That’s the divergence to watch: if institutional buying keeps coming but price can’t recover, selling pressure may be absorbing the demand. Flows alone aren’t a bullish signal.$TRUTH The biggest truth today is: there is no truth.
A trading volume of 10 million, up nearly 10%, but you have no idea who is buying.
It could be the dealer matching orders, it could be the market maker inflating volume, or it could be a big holder pumping before selling off.
The only certainty is: this is not a "market consensus," this is "manipulation."
TRUTH: My biggest lie is making you believe I am real.
Big holder positions are large — have they not withdrawn yet? Don't be fooled by the 4.68% volatility — in this game, $AAVE has just moved the rook to my pawn's position, while most are still applauding the king's wing fake attack. Current price 95.24, 24-hour volatility 4.68%, seemingly at the gates, but actually an overextension in one step: 1-hour RSI has reached 70.4, short-term overbought; long-term RSI is only 55.9, neutral. The short-long divergence is like the king's wing attack lacking support from the rear wing pawns, pushing further only to empty space.
The Bollinger Bands short-term are even more explicit: price stands at 132% position, only 1.1% from the upper band, but has 4.9% retracement space to the lower band; the mid-term is at 66% position, 2.8% from the upper band, 5.8% from the lower band. This is not center control, but pushing pieces to the edge. I calculated twenty moves ahead before placing my piece; 95.24 is just bait in the center of the board, the initiative is with the short side, and the rebound is forced.
Trigger conditions are clear: 1-hour RSI > 64 gives a sell signal, 70.4 has crossed this line. My move is not to short at 95.24, but to wait for the rebound at 97.99 — 2.9% above the current price, letting the opponent finish that overextension move first. Downside first target 87.10, -8.5% from current price; second target 90.03, -5.5%; stop loss 109.29, +14.8%, which is the last defense line after the king and rook castling; breaking this line means conceding the loss.
Positioning is like an endgame: not all in at once, placing pieces in batches, keeping a pawn path for the initiative. If 97.99 is reached, I execute according to the calculation tree; if 109.29 is breached upwards, this game is directly reversed.
📉 Short:
Entry: 97.99 (current price +2.9%)
Take profit 1: 87.10 (-8.5%)
Take profit 2: 90.03 (-5.5%)
Stop loss: 109.29 (+14.8%)
My judgment is simple: $AAVE is not in a mid-game chasing longs now, but an endgame for shorts waiting for a rebound.#微软Q1营收增长，Azure增速至48%超预期 $MSFT Earnings beat expectations across the board, opening surged to 540, but turned negative in less than an hour.
Azure grew 48%, with many major banks overnight bullish, which should be a perfect report card.
But it has already risen 36% in three months, so the good news was bought in early.
More interestingly, Microsoft's capital expenditure this quarter was less than expected.
Nebius, CoreWeave, those relying on big companies renting computing power, actually fell today.
Microsoft's own profits look good, but downstream shovel sellers are panicking first.
I won't touch this kind of high open and low close; I'll wait until it digests today's drop.
Do you think the good news is fully priced in, or is it just a shakeout?
$MSFT $NBIS $CRWV In this disclosure of large holder positions, BTC, ETH, and SOL short positions all recorded floating profits, all using high leverage full-position modes. It is worth noting that ETH's funding fee income exceeded its unrealized profit and loss, and the profit structures of the three positions are different. The BTC short position uses 25X full position, holding -1262.84 BTC, position value 100 million U, opening price 81528.2 U. The disclosed unrealized profit and loss is +1.7013 million U, funding fee income +230,800 U; margin 4.0502 million U, liquidation price 92413.24 U. ETH also uses 25X full position, holding -1683.93 ETH, position value 3.9163 million U, opening price 2408.64 U. Unrealized profit and loss +139,700 U, but funding fee income reached +466,000 U; margin 156,700 U, liquidation price 11431.65 U. SOL uses 20X full position, holding -18,400 SOL, position value 1.8496 million U, opening price 103.4597 U. Unrealized profit and loss +55,200 U, funding fee income +5755.68 U; margin 92,500 U, liquidation price 929.22 U. My view. The BTC position size is obviously much larger, so when the price moves inversely, its impact on the profit and loss of these three positions is more worth attention. ETH reminds us that when evaluating short position performance, price floating profit and funding fee income should be separated; they should not be mixed as already realized trading profits, nor should subsequent projections be made based on this.Buy low first to catch a rebound, target at 1300 points.
Long on BTC between 79973-81314, target 1341 points
As long as the upper resistance isn't broken, we just need to find the right position and continue shorting! $BTC $ETH Waiting in vain at 2 a.m., the four coins are acting like they have split personalities. Let's take a look at today's market👇
🔴 $BTC 80,647 — Utterly stagnant
The Federal Reserve stands still (10 in favor, 2 against), leaving the December rate hike uncertain. The market has been stuck at 80,000 for a week, but not even a ripple appeared. There is support below 80,000, but no one is willing to chase above; the bulls are collectively playing dead.
🔵 $WLD 0.4283 — The abandoned orphan
Users are increasing daily, but the coin price fell 1.77%. The bioinformatics privacy risk still looms, and regulation remains ambiguous. With no interest rate story, it’s now just a lost soul drifting with the overall market.
🔴 $OKB 110.2 — Holding the bottom line
After dropping from 114, it has been consolidating sideways, rising 1.1% today. Fee discounts and burn logic remain unchanged; after the FOMC sell-off, funds have stepped in to support it. The platform coin is still holding on.
🛡️ $RE 0.375 — Waiting for a disaster
The automatic compensation pool is expanding, but the daily trading volume is only a few hundred thousand, making the market very light. Want to run an independent rally? You’ll have to wait for a chain of on-chain disasters to trigger it. The Standard Asset Company, supported by the Dubai royal family, announced a $1.5 billion treasury reserve strategy, with assets divided into two parts: Bitcoin and real estate.
The amount is not astronomical, but the structure deserves serious attention. In the past two years, institutions entering crypto mainly bought funds or ETF shares, essentially financial investments—cashing out when prices rose and cutting positions when prices fell, with holdings fluctuating with the market. Treasury reserves are a different matter: putting Bitcoin into the long-term items on the balance sheet, more akin to gold reserves, once recorded, they are rarely moved.
This is the direction to watch. Price elasticity is never decided by how much someone buys on a given day, but by how many chips in circulation are locked away in pockets that won’t easily sell. As more companies treat $BTC as reserve assets rather than trading instruments, the floating supply thins layer by layer. The same buying pressure hitting a thinner supply naturally amplifies volatility.
The identity of the funders is also a signal. Royal endorsement means sovereign-level resources and patience behind it, not a fund cycle that must exit in three years to report to LPs. The Middle East is fiercely competing to become a digital asset landing center; this time it’s an open declaration: not only do we want exchanges to register here, we ourselves want to hold coins.
Bitcoin plus real estate, a digital hard asset resistant to inflation and a physical hard asset, simultaneously bet on distrust in fiat currency purchasing power. The value of such announcements lies in stacking one after another; the composition of the balance sheet is more honest than any hype.Key Risk Warnings
1. 82,000 is a "load-bearing wall," not just ordinary support: The 50-day moving average and ETF cost price converge here; a daily close effectively below this level will open the space toward 73,000–75,000.
2. The gamma risk from the 11 billion options expiring is concentrated below: 70% of the gamma risk lies between 75,000–82,000, and put options below 80,000 are more than twice the call options. Market makers' hedging actions may exacerbate losses during the decline.
3. The 81%–86% pricing of a December rate hike is the FOMC's real "dark horse": "No rate hike" has already been priced in; the jump in December probability is the fundamental reason BTC cannot rally after the statement.
4. U.S. Treasury yields above 5% plus the dollar's yearly high create structural suppression: With risk-free yields elevated, the holding cost of BTC as a zero-cash-flow asset is continuously pushed up, representing deep pressure beyond a single FOMC decision.
5. The ETF structure of "IBIT single-handedly supporting" is extremely fragile: The 137 million inflow almost entirely comes from one source; the 774 million outflow gap on the 22nd–23rd has yet to be filled. If IBIT inflows slow, capital flow will quickly turn negative again. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $SOL's recent surge was entirely driven by short-term sentiment pushing it up forcefully. At the 103.07 level, buying pressure clearly couldn't hold, and the bulls have exhausted their strength. Once it stagnates and weakens, those who took profits earlier will exit faster than anyone else. Following this momentum, a pullback is a very natural logic.
Currently, the price has fallen back to around 101.87, with some of the short-term decline already released. For assets driven by sentiment like this, even a slight disturbance can easily trigger a rebound. Now is not the time to guess how deep it might fall; the key is to see if the support below holds steady. Once the market stabilizes, the rhythm will need to be reassessed. $ETH #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #三星Q3营业利润创新高，净利润不及预期 Samsung's Q3 operating profit reached a record high of 107.44 trillion KRW, up 783% year-on-year; revenue also hit a new high at 195.25 trillion KRW. However, net profit attributable to shareholders was 75.21 trillion KRW, about 14 trillion below expectations, mainly due to exchange losses from the won's appreciation and a significant increase in financial expenses, which are non-operating impacts. The semiconductor division's operating profit was 106.5 trillion KRW, accounting for over 99% of total profit, with HBM4 volume growth slightly below expectations; the MX division turned to a loss of 600 billion KRW due to increased costs from rising memory prices. After the earnings report, the stock price dropped 5%–6%. The market is not rejecting the fundamentals but is discounting due to overly concentrated profit structure, terminal market weakness, and concerns over earnings sustainability.📉 Market Snapshot & Tech Earnings Shift Following Alphabet's (Google) latest financial release, shares slipped under sell-side pressure. While top-line enterprise cloud momentum accelerated, bottom-line profitability and net margins took a hit—reigniting intense investor scrutiny around massive AI infrastructure expenditures. 🌐 Key Takeaways & What's Ahead * Wall Street's Focus: High capex spend is directly weighing on free cash flows. Markets are demanding clear monetization timelines and RO🌍 30-minute straight surge! Who among the brothers caught this "evening raid"? 🔥
Take a look at the market. Stay calm.
At 14:30 this afternoon, the 30-minute candle really took off.
BTC peaked at 81525, currently at 81240 (24h +0.89%).
ETH surged to 2352.65, currently at 2345.14 (24h +0.47%).
SOL was the strongest, currently at 101.86 (24h +0.84%).
Who caught this short-term raid? 🤔
But looking at the overall data, don’t get carried away:
BTC is still down 2.17% over 30 days; ETH plunged 12.26% over 30 days; SOL dropped 13.78% over 30 days.
The major trend has not reversed.
If this is just a technical rebound after an oversell, then chasing higher without volume means taking the risk of being the bag holder.
If follow-up buying doesn’t keep up, a pullback after the spike is highly likely.
Brief comment: Catching it is skill, missing it don’t beat yourself up.
The market is always here, but your capital only comes once.
No calls, no promised returns. Strict discipline, defense first. 💰📉Don't rush to call a bull, first look at the expectations!
Not raising interest rates is not necessarily good news for $BTC. It's not that we don't understand that rate hikes tighten liquidity, but currently ETFs are continuously seeing net outflows, on-exchange funds are being repeatedly depleted, incremental funds are slow to arrive, and liquidity has long been tight. At this time, the debate over whether to raise rates or not is not about whether to inject liquidity, but that expectations remain unsettled.
What institutions fear most is not bad news, but no conclusion. With an unclear interest rate path, panic cannot be priced, risk budgets cannot be opened, and funds naturally dare not enter the market. Only when rate hikes are truly implemented, pessimistic expectations are fully priced in, and uncertainty turns into certainty, can institutions possibly reassess $BTC.
Therefore, if you really hope for a strong rally, rate hikes should be clarified as soon as possible, rather than being delayed. Not raising rates does not equal good news; delay is the real suppression.
#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #特斯拉Q3汽车毛利率回升，自由现金流转正
Currently, Tesla is in an intensive investment phase transitioning from an automaker to an AI and energy company, with profit pressure resulting from upfront expenses. The improvement in the profitability quality of the automotive business and healthy demand on the delivery side provide a buffer for subsequent investments.📉 CRYPTO MARKET TODAY – 10/29/2026
The cryptocurrency market is under correction pressure as $BTC retreats to around $79,800, $ETH drops to $2,300. $XRP and many altcoins also weaken, while BNB maintains a slight green. The Fed keeps interest rates unchanged but its cautious stance continues to affect investor sentiment. 🔍 At this stage, attention should be paid to the BTC support zone of $79,000–$80,000. Prioritize capital management, avoid FOMO, and monitor volume before entering trades. 🚀
Refer to market data on 10/29/2026.$HYPE Perp — Trading Signal 📈
$HYPE USDT
Chart timeframe: 1H · Price shown: 91.311
Signal LONG / BUY
Entry zone $89.80–90.50
Take Profit 1 $92.00
Take Profit 2 $93.00
Take Profit 3 $94.00
Stop Loss $88.80
Analysis: Price has surged strongly and is trading above the EMA5, EMA10 and EMA20, showing bullish momentum.
However, price is near the $92 resistance, so avoid chasing the pump.
Prefer a pullback entry or a confirmed breakout above $92.
#DailyOrbit @OKX 预言家 $DXY, why wait for the PCE instead of just watching the Fed hold steady on the dollar's direction? Although the policy rate remains at 3.75%–4%, the decision showed some hawkish dissent, so the market needs inflation data to recalibrate the future path. The dollar influences global capital and risk assets through interest rate differentials. If the PCE is hotter and yields rise, the dollar may stay supported; if inflation cools and the spread narrows, I will reassess the dollar's strength. $TSLA Direction: Short
· Entry: Short when the rebound is resisted around 410 - 412.
· Stop Loss: Firmly stop loss if it breaks through 413.5 (above the previous high).
· Take Profit: First target 402, second target 398 (near the previous low).
⚠️ Note: Overall, it is a rebound repair after a sharp drop, with obvious resistance at the previous high above. Wait for the rebound to confirm resistance, do not chase shorts directly, use light positions with stop loss.A towering bullish candlestick line directly swallowed up half a month's gloom! ORCL (Oracle) has surged like a "springing onion from dry land"—is this a trap of a rebound after overselling, or a desperate counterattack triggered by the AI narrative reboot?
From the 1-day chart, ORCL experienced a long bearish consolidation from 170.81 down to 123.06. But just now, the bulls have sounded the charge for a counterattack. The current price has strongly risen to 140.79, a single-day surge of 7.35%, showing extremely strong explosive power.
The technical side has released three major positive signals:
First, the candlestick formed a strong bullish real body breaking through the Bollinger Bands middle band (132.16), currently approaching the resistance zone near the upper band (142.65). This indicates that bullish momentum is rapidly taking control of the market.
Second, the MACD indicator at the bottom formed a golden cross below the zero line, and the red bars have started to significantly expand (DIF crossing above DEA), meaning the short-term trend has shifted from bearish to bullish.
Finally, combined with the positive news that "Oracle will integrate AI tools such as Google TPU and Snowflake," the fundamentals and technicals are resonating together. The moment BTC touched 81,500, both bulls and bears fell silent.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $335 million, with longs liquidated for $208 million and shorts for $126 million. But BTC funding rate is only 0.0053%/8h, bulls are still paying, yet it’s far from an overcrowded situation.
1. What changed? The price pulled from 79,710 up above 81,500, but the liquidations were a "double kill" of both longs and shorts, not a one-sided crush.
2. Why is this worth noting? The double kill shows both sides are taking hits, while the funding rate remains mildly positive — leverage is being cleared, but no one is surrendering.
3. Which observation is currently more supported? The "consolidation and bottoming, leverage breeding a trap" view: those chasing highs are buried, those bottom-fishing are also buried, no one is gaining an advantage.
Next, watch one thing: will the short liquidation zone above 81,500 (about $649 million) be triggered? Breaking through forces shorts to cover; failing to break through means the double kill continues. Do you think this time it’s for real, or just another "fake breakout"? Let’s discuss in the comments. $BTC $CL Direction: Short
· Entry: Short when rebound is resisted near 101.20 - 101.50.
· Stop Loss: Firm stop loss if it breaks above 102.00.
· Take Profit: First target 100.00, second target 99.50 (near previous low).
⚠️ Note: Continuous decline from high levels, MACD dead cross near zero line with expanding green bars, short-term bears dominate. Wait for rebound to confirm resistance, do not chase shorts directly, use light positions with stop loss.I should be able to hold this position tight; a sudden inspiration really made me open the right direction. Mainly because I have already said $BTC has long been a counterintuitive foolish thing.
Now, as long as future policies or events have high certainty, $BTC will rise, regardless of whether the news is positive or negative, it will definitely go up. Because other markets have already shown their cards and the bond market is moving in the opposite direction.
Only crypto $BTC remains at about sixty percent of last year's peak value, whether from the traditional PE perspective or growth potential, crypto is clearly a low net worth asset.
Institutions buying it don't have to bear high risks, so why not?
It seems this daily chart really can't break through 80k!
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 Ethereum on the one-hour chart is currently showing an oversold recovery rebound trend, with the price rebounding above the Bollinger middle band. However, overall, I personally believe it is still a pullback within a downtrend, and the trend has not reversed. On the indicators, KDJ has rapidly risen into the overbought zone, with short-term bullish momentum depleting quickly, indicating a need for a pullback; although MACD's bearish volume has narrowed and reversed, DIF remains below DEA, indicating a weak recovery without a bullish resonance signal. The upper Bollinger band at 2373 is the short-term key resistance. The one-hour Bollinger middle band serves as the short-term key support; if volume increases and the price breaks below this low point, this rebound structure will be invalidated, and the bearish trend will continue. Reference: short at 2347, target 2307, stop loss 30 points $ETH $OKB Rest assured, these types of US stock tokens on OKX are backed by real stock custody at the base layer. The issuers use licensed custody and on-chain reserve verification, with dual constraints on minting and redemption. OKX only provides the trading venue, keeping clear boundaries. They are suitable for those who want to conveniently track US stock prices using crypto accounts. Before buying, just check the issuer, custodian, and product terms carefully. The overall design is transparent and verifiable. $OKB $BTC Nasdaq crashes, BTC stubbornly stands above 81500, tomorrow is the real test
Tonight the script was reversed. As soon as the US stock market opened, the Nasdaq directly crashed, dropping more than 1.3%. As usual, tech stocks got hit, and BTC was supposed to follow into the ICU. But what happened? BTC stubbornly stepped on the corpse of the Nasdaq and climbed up to 81500.
Why? Two reinforcements arrived. First, spot ETFs had net inflows for two consecutive days, led by BlackRock charging ahead, with real money supporting the bottom; second, the shorts above stretched their necks themselves, a bunch of high-leverage short positions waiting to be liquidated. Once the price passed the key level, a chain of forced liquidations caused the buying to take off.
But don't pop the champagne yet. Tomorrow at 4 PM, Deribit has $10.9 billion worth of BTC options expiring, with the biggest pain point pinned at 78,000. Market makers, to drag the price toward the pain point before settlement, are best at stabbing up and down and cleaning up on both ends.
In short: 81500 is pushed by the combined stop losses of ETFs and shorts. Before tomorrow's settlement, any chasing of highs is just making yourself a target for the stabbing. Only a pullback and firm hold above 81050 counts as a real breakout; if broken, this wave is just a bull trap before settlement.
#US September core PCE rose to 3.1%, rate hike expectations remain high $ZEC Direction: Short
· Entry: Light short position when rebound is resisted near 1310 - 1315.
· Stop Loss: Firm stop loss if it breaks above 1330 (above previous high).
· Take Profit: First target 1280, second target 1260.
⚠️ Note: Sharp short-term rally approaching the upper previous high resistance zone, MACD momentum is strong, indicating a counter-trend top. Do not enter early; be sure to wait for rebound resistance confirmation, enter very lightly and exit quickly.#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
The boss has something to say
Circle will release its Q3 earnings report before the U.S. stock market opens on November 4. The market is watching how the expansion of USDC circulation affects reserve income and distribution costs.
I believe the core contradiction in this earnings report lies in the profit structure. Comments in the discussion section are very insightful: profits are tied to reserve interest rates, USDC grew by 25% but reserve income only increased by 5%. This indicates that although the stablecoin market size has grown, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates or the distribution costs paid to channels like Coinbase are too high, its profit growth simply cannot keep up with the scale growth. Circle is now facing the dilemma of thin margins with high volume.
On the market front, CRCL slightly dropped 0.40%, xCRCL fell 0.41%, with funds waiting and watching before the earnings report.
For crypto, Circle is a bellwether in the stablecoin sector. If the earnings report shows that although the scale increased but profitability did not improve, it means the stablecoin business model heavily depends on a high interest rate environment. This poses a challenge to the valuation logic of the entire sector.
Bitcoin was pressured slightly by the Fed's hawkish stance early this morning and is now hovering near the 80,000 level. Let's see if it can hold here. If it can't, expect a deeper pullback, with resistance above at 84,000 to 85,000. Do not chase the rise or sell in panic; set your stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; make sure to set your stop losses well. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $423.6M in cumulative net inflows over three days, yet $BTC has failed to hold above $81,000. The surprising part? BlackRock’s IBIT captured nearly 99% of those inflows, while other major funds saw little activity. Meanwhile, Galaxy Research data indicates hedge funds reduced their ETF exposure by around 68,000 $BTC , highlighting a potential shift in institutional positioning. 🚨 ETF buying vs. hedge fund selling! Bitcoin ETF inflows may be helping absorb selling pLong positions were liquidated for 200 million, yet the funding rate surprisingly did not turn negative.
In the past 24 hours, approximately $205 million worth of long positions were liquidated across the network. BTC once dropped from 81,106 to 79,710; within the half hour it fell below 80,000, over 80 million long positions were liquidated. However, CoinGlass data shows that BTC's position-weighted and volume-weighted funding rates remain at 0.0069% and 0.0056%, respectively, staying within a neutral range without turning negative. Even more unusually, after the drop, Binance's BTC long-to-short ratio actually rose to 2.16, indicating that bottom-fishers have not given up.
1. What changed? The price dropped and long positions were liquidated, but leveraged longs did not panic exit, and the funding rate was not pushed negative by shorts.
2. Why is this noteworthy? If it were a true trend reversal, funding rates would typically turn negative quickly and the long-to-short ratio would plummet. This combination looks more like leveraged longs being passively cleared rather than shorts actively taking over.
3. Which market observation is currently more supported? The "deleveraging rather than trend reversal" view: leverage is decreasing, but bullish positions have not surrendered.
Next, focus on two key points: whether the funding rate will truly turn negative, and whether the batch of long liquidations below 80,000 will be triggered a second time. Is this deleveraging round over, or just getting started? Share your judgment in the comments. $BTC Why is Google's plunge this time so terrifying?
Let's first look at several major single-day drops in history:
1. March 16, 2020, -11.63%: The pandemic triggered a US stock market circuit breaker, with the Dow dropping nearly 13%
2. September 29, 2008, -11.6%: Congress rejected the bailout plan, and Google's stock price fell below $400
3. October 26, 2022, -9.14%: Q3 earnings showed simultaneous slowdowns in advertising and YouTube
4. October 25, 2023, -9.51%: Q3 earnings themselves were not bad, but cloud business growth lagged market expectations
5. October 29, 2026 pre-market, -11.47%: AI capital expenditures are consuming free cash flow, raising market concerns about extended return cycles.
The pattern is clear
In 2022, 2023, and 2026, all three were valuation hits triggered by earnings reports. Advertising, cloud, AI—each burns more cash than the last.
What the market truly fears is not how much less is earned this quarter, but that Google is staking both cash flow and profit margins on AI.
More importantly, AI infrastructure is not a one-time investment but requires continuous heavy spending. No matter how fast the business grows, if it cannot be converted into profits and free cash flow in time, the market may not buy it.
This is the most realistic side of AI investment: everyone can see growth, but returns must be proven by performance.
So this plunge looks more like the market is preemptively repricing "high AI investment, low immediate returns."
#谷歌Q3营收增长，净利润下滑、每股收益不及预期 🍻 Brothers, back to check the market after drinking!
ZEC is currently at 1277. With PCE released, BTC is playing dead at 80300, yet ZEC surprisingly resists the trend. Is this a support or a bull trap?
📊 1. Market Breakdown
1. Macro: Crude oil fell below 101, BTC dipped to 80,000 then rebounded, completing a double kill of bulls and bears.
2. Market: ZEC faces a strong resistance at 1287 above and a critical support at 1260 below. The main force is neither pushing high nor letting go low, just shaking out positions.
🔮 2. Market Outlook
Short term is likely to range between 1260-1287. If the market breaks below 80,000, ZEC may follow with a drop breaking through 1260.
🛡️ 3. Trading Rules
⚠️ Current price 1277 is a meat grinder, avoid chasing market orders!
🟢 Long: Volume breakout and hold above 1287, light long positions on pullback to 1282 if not broken, target 1300.
🔴 Short:
1. Light short on rejection at 1285, stop loss at 1292, target 1265.
2. Short on breakdown below 1260 with weak rebound, target 1250.
🚨 The above strategies and analysis are for reference only #美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 $ETH Direction: Short
· Entry: Light short position when rebound is resisted around 2360 - 2370.
· Stop Loss: Firm stop loss if it breaks above 2392 (above previous high).
· Take Profit: First target 2320, second target 2300.
⚠️ Note: There was just an extremely violent straight surge, which is a counter-trend top test with very high risk. Do not chase shorts directly; be sure to wait for confirmation of resistance at high levels, enter very lightly, and exit quickly.Brothers, another long-established big institution is playing a new game. Franklin Templeton has directly launched two hybrid ETFs, combining US stocks with Bitcoin $BTC, listed on Nasdaq. 95% of the money is used to buy US stocks, leaving only 5% of the position for Bitcoin. And it has a very key feature: the dividends from the stocks are automatically used to buy more Bitcoin, which means a continuous stream of buying pressure for Bitcoin. Every quarter, the portfolio is rebalanced to ensure Bitcoin remains a supporting player and never takes the lead. This is different from the pure BTC ETFs we had before. Pure Bitcoin ETFs are specifically betting on the price fluctuations of the coin; this product is designed for traditional investors who already buy US stocks, so they don’t need to open a separate account and can conveniently add some Bitcoin. It’s like opening a low-threshold entry channel for a large group of conservative old money. Of course, we shouldn’t hype this as a huge positive right away. Initially, only 5% is allocated, so the incremental impact from a single fund won’t explode. But the key point is the signal: more and more established funds are starting to treat Bitcoin as a normal asset allocation option in their portfolios, no longer seeing it as a fringe or shady asset. The downside is also obvious: these funds are tied to US stocks. If the US stock market crashes, even if Bitcoin itself has no negative news, it will be sold off along with the stocks. Going forward, Bitcoin’s correlation with US stocks will only get tighter. In the short term, don’t expect this news to directly trigger a market surge, but over the long term, as more of these products emerge, it will gradually integrate traditional marketsSolana is under attack, and the tokenized US tech stocks didn't fare well either
$SUI down 0.47%, xMSFT up 2.19%, xSKHY down 1.04%.
This group spans two fronts: public chains and tokenized US tech stocks. SUI's issues are similar to SOL's; as the hype around AI and meme in the ecosystem fades, the token price deflates accordingly, making it an emotion-driven player.
The slight rise in $xMSFT is interesting. Microsoft's earnings just came out; although AI capital expenditure was criticized by the market as burning money, the stock price held up well, and the on-chain Microsoft token benefited from this.
$xSKHY is a hydrogen energy stock, falling only slightly, basically neither hyped nor dumped—just lukewarm. The takeaway from grouping these is: after tokenized stocks launched, crypto players can trade US stock sentiment around the clock for the first time, so the crypto market's volatility rhythm is now being influenced by the US stock market. Previously, we watched BTC's mood; in the future, we might have to watch Nasdaq first. After reading, I noted three things. What made me pause the most was the 5x leverage, not how large the position amount was; I’m used to filling in the risk section first, then looking at the direction.
1. This monitoring shows Core Trader 12 going long on $LIT with 5x leverage, nominal position about $503,700. I don’t take a “large position” as a bullish reason because I don’t know the total assets of this wallet. The same amount could be a test position for one account or already very heavy for another.
2. 5x doesn’t sound extreme, but roughly calculating with unchanged margin and ignoring fees, if the price moves 10% against the position, the loss relative to the initial margin is about 50%. This is not the actual liquidation line, just a reminder: leverage amplifies price fluctuations into capital pressure, and “not reaching liquidation” doesn’t mean low risk.
3. I want to know the exit conditions more than rushing to guess why they bought. This data has no stop loss or hedging info, so my judgment is: it proves there is capital willing to go long, but it’s not enough to prove the trade’s risk is controllable, nor can it replace my entry decision.
For this checklist, I first note position ratio, leverage amplification, and exit conditions. What would everyone add as a fourth point: margin mode, or whether there is a hedging position? Bitcoin and Ethereum's oscillations are approaching a critical point. BTC is locked in the $79,000 to $85,000 range, with the $85,000 level repeatedly blocking upward momentum, and the $79,100–$79,300 range repeatedly holding support. $ETH is consolidating around $2,300, with $2,400–$2,440 as immediate resistance and the $2,470–$2,520 supply zone awaiting a breakout.
Signals of a trend change are accumulating. If $BTC forms a W bottom on the hourly chart and breaks above the $80,507 neckline with volume, the rebound could open up towards $81,000–$82,000; a daily close above $85,000 would confirm the rebound. For ETH, holding above $2,310 is a prerequisite, and breaking $2,440 could trigger short liquidations, accelerating a move toward $2,500.
The end of the oscillation still requires a catalyst. The Fed decision has been mostly priced in, but the probability of a rate hike in December remains above 70%, with midterm elections and earnings season approaching. Low volatility won't last, and directional choices often happen when most are complacent. BTC holding $79,000 and ETH holding $2,300 indicate the bulls and bears balance is quietly tipping toward a breakout side.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 PCE did not bring positive news: Core PCE year-on-year rose back to 3.1%, BTC surged to 81,788 then fell back to 80,700, December rate hike probability at 84.6%.
Last night the Fed held steady at 3.75%—4.00%, with 10-2 votes and 2 votes for a rate hike. BTC surged to 81,698 on decision night then slid to 79,636.
Tonight September PCE released: overall month-on-month +0.5%, year-on-year 3.6%, core month-on-month +0.3%, year-on-year 3.1%, meeting expectations but year-on-year rose again; Q3 GDP +3.4% also exceeded expectations.
BTC ETF net inflow yesterday was $137 million, totaling $424 million over three consecutive days, but $136 million all went into IBIT alone; ETH ETF had a net outflow of $21.41 million the same day.
My view: Data does not disprove the rate hike path; the inflow is all supported by IBIT alone, which does not count as institutional return, just a tug-of-war above 80,000.
My approach: Watch only, no chasing; only consider buyers returning if the close holds above 81,700; if it breaks below 79,600 and fails to recover, consider the 80,000 anchor loosened.
The above is just personal observation and record, not investment advice.
After PCE release, do you bet BTC will first hold above 81,700 or break below 79,600?
$BTC $ETH $IBIT
#FedHoldSteady #BitcoinETFFOMC news has successfully landed, currently ETH is priced around $2,320. After the decision, it briefly plunged to $2,313, with a buy-sell ratio of only 0.46, and the sell wall thickness is more than twice that of the buy wall.
FOMC kept interest rates unchanged, but 2 votes opposed and advocated a 25bp rate hike. The statement raised growth to "strong," and the inflation wording shifted from supporting strengthening to ensuring it, marking a hawkish pause in tone. However, during the press conference, Waller refused to give a clear path, and the market instead interpreted it as less hawkish. The dollar plunged sharply, the probability of a rate hike in December remains pinned at 85%, and short-term pressure has not increased further for now.
Technical divergence between bulls and bears: daily MACD death cross, RSI at 37, but 4-hour level shows volume at the bottom, Bollinger lower band at $2,310 tested multiple times without breaking, bearish momentum is waning. $2,293 is the last line of defense currently; if broken, it directly exposes $2,200–$2,280. On the upside, if $2,350–$2,391 is not reclaimed, the rebound is just an oversold correction. $2,425 is the true watershed to reverse the weakness.
The real drag comes from the supply side: ETF net outflow in October was about $1.35 billion, with 17 out of 20 trading days seeing outflows; meanwhile, more than 10 long-term dormant wallets transferred out about 56,000 ETH, with four largest transfers directly to Coinbase and Kraken, including a single 2015 ICO whale transfer of 13,330 ETH. Whether $2,293 can hold is more decisive for the short-term direction than the FOMC wording.Why did HYPE suddenly surge?
With the New York Stock Exchange parent company ICE collaboration landing, Hyperliquid is expected to enter the compliant US derivatives market; combined with fee buyback deflation and Bitwise ETF capital inflow, the platform's commodity contract trading volume has increased, fueling speculative expectations.#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Amazon after-hours earnings: Is this drop a trap or an opportunity?
Let's talk about the market first: AMZN is currently at 245.34, down 3.64%, with a trading volume of 3.062 billion. Before the earnings report, this move basically means some funds are reducing risk early and don't want to gamble naked in after-hours.
Tonight, the market is focused on four things: AWS growth and profit margin, advertising growth, retail fulfillment costs, capital expenditures, and Q4 guidance.
The highlights are most likely still AWS and advertising, as these two are the profit engines; on the retail side, it's about whether fulfillment efficiency continues to improve. The real mood killer is capital expenditures—AI spending is huge, and the market will focus on free cash flow.
On the options side, implied volatility definitely rises before earnings, betting on big after-hours swings in both directions, not a one-sided move. I don't blindly guess up or down; buying naked options is easily harvested by IV, spreads are more stable.
After hours, first watch if AWS holds steady and if guidance collapses. If capital expenditures hit hard but AWS and advertising are fine, then watch for a pullback tomorrow to see if it holds.Dear, Star Boss Xu's tweet, Moonlight thinks it's worth studying carefully
ICE plans to introduce the perpetual contracts of Trade[XYZ] in the Hyperliquid ecosystem into the US regulated market, and will distribute them through a joint venture channel with OKX @OKX中文
What particularly interests me about this is that the on-chain trading products we are familiar with are starting to have the opportunity to enter markets built by traditional financial institutions
Each of the three parties clearly brings something!
ICE provides regulatory and clearing infrastructure, Trade[XYZ] brings on-chain perpetual product experience, and OKX connects trading technology and user networks
People in the crypto circle may be used to 24/7 trading in crypto markets, but for traditional finance to accommodate this 24/7 product form, there are details behind such as clearing, risk control, and regulation, and many links need coordination
OKX being explicitly written into the distribution link is a part that Moonlight pays special attention to
Because this also indicates that the cooperation has already started to involve specific products and trading channels
What do you think, how will the on-chain perpetual trading experience integrate into the regulated financial market next? The wallet used for Solana trading in the FOMO app only made a 10% profit after fees. I feel a bit discouraged too, but using this to claim that basically no one makes money playing Solana—isn't that a stretch? The users of this app are not the same as all the players on the entire chain. I'd like to see how long the statistics cover and how the fees are calculated. Just this headline almost makes me feel like quitting the scene.Are the rebounders still stubborn? $BTC eyes 79,220, $ETH targets 2,282, $ZEC may retest 1,049
BTC is currently around 80,312 USDT, with the daily EMA7 at 80,710 and EMA25 at 82,216, price still suppressed by the mid-term moving averages; the MACD death cross has persisted for 30 daily candles, and today's volume is only 0.64 times the 7-day average volume. Around 79,220 is the low point of the past 30 days; repeated retests are not "the bottom getting more stable with each test," but rather the continuous consumption of support. Those who talk bullish but don't act bullish, and those who talk bearish must open short positions; people who mistake a low-volume rebound for a reversal often end up becoming liquidity themselves.
ETH is around 2,326 USDT, EMA7 at 2,348, EMA25 at 2,448, daily chart still shows weak moving average divergence; RSI(6) has fallen from 40.11 to 31.39, price is near the lower Bollinger Band indicating weak oscillation. The 30-day decline has reached -13.47%, yet many still use "oversold" as an excuse for blind bottom-fishing. Oversold has never been a promise of a bottom, and a low-volume pullback is not a trend recovery; when 2,282 USDT is tested again, the fantasy of bulls holding positions will truly be put to the test.
#美国9月核心PCE升至3.1%，加息预期仍高 $BTC $ETH $SOL