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Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision: The announcement will be made at 2:00 AM Beijing time on October 29. The market expects rates to remain unchanged, but if the tone is hawkish, it may pressure risk assets.
Tech Stocks Correlation: Strong earnings from semiconductor companies like SK Hynix have driven AI concept stocks higher, indirectly boosting Bitcoin sentiment, but beware of a pullback risk after the "good news is fully priced in."
Options Expiry: About $11 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire tonight, potentially causing short-term price volatility, especially near concentrated strike prices (such as 81,000 and 82,000).
Trading Suggestions for $BTC
Short-term Traders: Monitor the 81,820 breakout; if it breaks out with volume, consider light positions with a stop loss below 81,000; if it fails to break and falls below 80,500, consider short positions.
Mid-term Investors: It is recommended to wait for the Fed decision before making directional judgments. Stay on the sidelines within the current range to avoid heavy bets before major events.
Risk Control: Regardless of long or short positions, always set stop losses. Given the current high market volatility, single losses should not exceed 2%-3% of total capital.My first reaction is: changing the growth story does not equal changing the odds. Whether institutional business can fill the gap left by the retreat of speculation will determine if this transformation has a positive expected value.
According to Bloomberg, Solana is seeking to shift from relying on Meme coins and speculative trading to stablecoins and tokenized assets, aiming for adoption by Wall Street; JPMorgan Chase, Visa, and others have already started related businesses on the network. However, its on-chain perpetual contract trading volume share has dropped from 17% to 6%, and the US-listed spot and staked SOL ETFs have seen net outflows of about $50 million for two consecutive weeks this month.
I tend to view this as a positive long-term signal rather than a short-term reversal indicator. Institutional entry reduces the risk of application failure, but business implementation does not equal token value capture. The transformation is worth looking forward to only if payments and asset settlements can continuously contribute fees; if it’s just big name recognition with little actual use, I wouldn’t assign a high valuation to the story.
Facing this kind of transformation, do people value the probability of business realization more, or the odds of betting in advance?After reviewing Microsoft's quarterly earnings report and conference call, it can only be said that they are a solid top performer. Azure's growth rate accelerated compared to the previous quarter, and enterprise AI usage is deepening. Early investments are beginning to generate more revenue, which is already visible in the financial statements. However, concluding that the pressure on capital expenditures has passed based on this would be premature. Tonight at midnight, Microsoft announced its fiscal year 2027 first-quarter results, corresponding to July to September 2026: Revenue of $92.279 billion, a year-over-year increase of 19%; operating profit of $45.915 billion, up 21%; earnings per share excluding OpenAI investment gains and losses of $4.89, up 18%. Azure revenue grew 48%, and the fixed exchange rate growth guidance for the next quarter was further raised to 49% to 50%. Some new capacity deliveries were delayed, but Azure continues to accelerate; operating cash flow increased, while free cash flow declined year-over-year. Existing infrastructure is generating more revenue, but the incremental cash capital expenditures still exceed the incremental operating cash flow. Future earnings reports will need to address whether this gap can gradually narrow. 1. Azure Accelerates Growth Engineering optimizations provided additional support Azure's revenue this quarter was $33.165 billion, an increase of $10.781 billion compared to the same period last year. On a restated comparable basis, Azure contributed about 74% of Microsoft's group revenue year-over-year increase. A business with quarterly revenue exceeding $33 billion, which can accelerate growth from 42% last quarter to 48%, already has a significant impact on the entire company. Previously distributed$BTC is at 81,212, up 0.68% in 24 hours, $ETH up 0.48%, $SOL up 1.2%, with all major coins in the green. However, the total crypto market cap fell by 2.13%, now at 2.74 trillion, as money withdraws from altcoins. On the losers list, GRASS dropped 9.16%, VVV down 7.3%, both mid-cap coins, showing a broad decline.
BTC dominance is 59.48%, with a turnover rate of only 1.58%, this modest gain is supported by capital parking. The Fed did not move in October, and CICC expects another rate hike in December, so macro conditions offer no support.
The only sector with heat is meme coins. $PEPE rose 11.05%, turnover at 39.29%, many trades but little holding. On the contract side, BLUR funding rate is -0.52%, shorts pay high fees but do not exit; such a structure often leads to further price declines.
In the next 72 hours, BTC dominance will continue to rise, with altcoins underperforming majors. Rotation only begins when dominance falls below 59% and total market cap turns positive; if BTC falls below 80,000, the majors’ resilience ends. Last night, I really got stopped out on my short position by BTC! Although I had said a few days ago not to chase shorts near BTC at 80,000, to watch out for a rebound shakeout, and I reminded again yesterday that no rate hike doesn't mean easing. But I still wanted to follow the bearish bias and lightly try a short. As a result, ETH surged straight to 2391, hitting my short stop loss set at 2375. Fortunately, I locked in some profits early and still ended up making a profit! Looking at the Fed, rates remain at 3.75%–4.00%, with a 10 to 2 vote, and two even advocating for a hike, so it's definitely hawkish! But the dollar and US Treasury yields rising together, which I worried about last night, didn't happen; the dollar actually fell back, the 2-year yield dropped, and only the 10-year yield continued to rise. The bearish news came, but the market didn't crash as expected! This morning, BTC peaked at 81,787, then returned near 81,300; ETH touched 2391, then retreated to 2360. The resistance levels I watched at 81,280 and 2370 were both broken through, and the 4-hour chart is above the short-term moving average. This rebound is indeed stronger than yesterday; the short squeeze I worried about really came! My judgment remains cautiously bullish in the short term, but the overall direction is still bearish! If BTC can't hold 81,800–82,000 and ETH 2390–2400, I still prefer to wait for the rebound to be resisted before shorting, rather than chasing near support!麻吉大哥空单全摊在明处：BTC空了2613枚，开仓在76343，浮亏1203万；ETH空了10.64万枚，浮亏336万；SOL空了71.99万枚，浮亏551万。两千多万浮亏，全网都等着看他被抬走。 先泼盆冷水：靠强平抬不动。三笔全是全仓，BTC的爆仓价在135031，ETH在3671，SOL在293，保证金一笔就垫了四五千万美元。价再磨上去一截，伤的是面子，不是仓位。 而且他是收钱的那一方：三笔空单的资金费已经收了1140多万，浮亏两千多万，等于磨一天回一天血。区间里耗着，着急的不是收租的人。 他真正的风险不在杠杆，在数据。决议刚落地，票数十比二、两张反对票主张加息；GDP和PCE今晚才出，数据热一点，空单直接翻身，数据软一点，才轮得到多头谈逼空。赌他割肉，就是赌数据站哪边。 还有个细节，他空的只有BTC、ETH、SOL，没碰ZEC。ZEC这轮走独立行情，拥挤的也不在空头那边，他没去惹它，算他清醒。 我的看法：别等他平仓点火，燃料论得先有突破才成立。我只盯两样，价带量站稳区间上沿、长线仓回补。不到齐，他就还是收租状态，我不替他着急。$KORU: Feels like KORU is a bit lagging behind. The main heavyweight stocks, Hynix and Samsung, have both rebounded well, but where is the 3x rebound in KORU? It seems to be only about 1x in sync, which is quite strange 😂Three "rises," three different market languages
$BEAT's rise is the most eye-catching: up 19.1% in 24 hours, at 0.08616. But in the six-hour stats, open interest increased by about 5.1%, and expanded exposure does not equal more bulls. The price still sharply retraced above 0.08, and the position expansion did not bring a smoother path. Behind the daily rise is a period of high volatility; you can't just look at the result.
$ETH is at 2333.24, up 0.8% in 24 hours. In the previous four hours, it oscillated around 2315 with a trading volume of about 65.81 million USDT, up about 42% from before, but the price basically closed flat—volume first corresponds to divergence and has not yet turned into price lifting. The subsequent quote rose to 2333, which is a change in the new phase and should be recognized separately; the volume increase without moving far should be viewed separately from the newer price lift.
$SUI is at 0.9209, up 0.9%. After rebounding from 0.9011, the pullback mostly stopped near 0.909, and the low did not continue to expand downward, which is a more substantial improvement than the daily rise. The local low point has been raised, but 0.9312 has not yet been surpassed, so it is still one step away from a smooth rise.
BEAT is position expansion amid volatility, ETH is a new price lift after volume increase, and SUI is a pullback with a rising center of gravity. The three "rises" are not of the same nature.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
After amplifying orders for both coins, slippage for both buying and selling increased significantly, with $AXIS showing the highest simulated slippage at the 100,000 scale.
$AXIS simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.30%/0.35%, and for 100,000 scale is 1.63%/1.34%. Depth is discontinuous at the scale level; the 100,000 tier is the real execution constraint.
$INIT simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.19%/0.19%, and for 100,000 scale is 0.79%/0.89%. After order amplification, slippage on both sides rises, with a clear premium on large orders. Bitcoin has climbed back above 81,000, currently around 81,265, and Ethereum has also bounced back slightly, hovering around 2,360.
The reason for this rebound is simple: the Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates. With rates held steady at 3.75%-4%, the news first boosted the US stock market, followed by Bitcoin and Ethereum catching up.
But don’t get too excited yet; it’s hard to say how long this momentum will last.
CME data shows the market is betting on an 83% chance of another rate hike in December. This pause feels more like a buildup for a big move in December. The US dollar remains supported, so the pressure on Bitcoin hasn’t really eased.
Looking at ETFs, the structure looks grim. Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows, but almost all the money went into BlackRock alone, while others are bleeding out. Ethereum is even worse, with ETFs experiencing four consecutive weeks of net outflows, totaling $220 million. Institutional confidence in Ethereum is clearly weak.
Technically, Bitcoin failed to break through 81,700 and was pushed back down, facing heavy selling pressure above. Ethereum’s short-term resistance is near 2,360, with 2,300 as a key support level; if that breaks, 2,250 will be the next focus.
My view is simple: the Fed has given a breather, not a reversal. The threat of a December rate hike still hangs over us, and ETF funds haven’t truly expanded. Chasing longs at this level has very low cost-effectiveness, but shorting is risky due to potential sudden news shocks.
It’s better to wait until the December rate hike expectations become clearer or until there’s a turning point in Ethereum ETF fund flows before making a move.Last night in the early morning, the Federal Reserve pressed the pause button and left a message.
Interest rates remain locked at 3.75%-4.00%, as expected; but it hinted at a possible rate hike in December. At the same time, the Bank of Canada raised rates by 25 basis points to 2.50%. Gold briefly rose $7 to $4043 per ounce.
Normally, with rising rate hike expectations, risk assets would take a hit. But $BTC showed a clear divergence.
On one side, Wall Street funds are withdrawing from Bitcoin ETFs; on the other, sovereign wealth funds are entering the market, with Fidelity Investments directly buying $24.5 million worth of Bitcoin for its own Bitcoin ETF, managing $5 trillion.
More notably, Google Cloud launched a preview of its Bitcoin custody service, allowing institutions to sign transactions without fully controlling the private keys. In plain terms: previously, the biggest hurdle for institutions wanting to touch Bitcoin was how to manage private keys and pass audits. Now, cloud providers have leveled that hurdle.
So $BTC’s current position is very delicate. Macro conditions are tightening, but incremental capital is changing hands—from retail investors and traders chasing rallies to sovereign wealth funds, asset management giants, and corporate treasuries behind cloud providers. This kind of money comes in slowly, but once it’s in, it’s unlikely to flee because of a single down day.
Keep an eye on two things: first, whether the Fed will actually take action in December; second, how much real money moves in through these newly opened custody channels. Direction matters more than speed.Samsung's Q3 profit is expected to increase nearly 8 times. Risk appetite recovery usually suppresses safe-haven gold prices, but with the full financial report yet to be released, market divergence remains significant. I hold a cautious short-term bearish view on XAU. Short-term and long-term cycles conflict: 1-hour is rising but 0.70% below the high, 4-hour is falling and 3.40% below the high; the rebound looks more like a correction rather than a reversal. Current price is 4052.2, down 0.6% in 24h, with highs and lows at 4033 and 4088 forming boundaries. Trading volume of 77.782 million indicates moderate participation; the top 10 bid-ask ratio is 0.30, with sell orders at 260,000 outweighing buy orders at 78,000. Funding rate is 0.0028%, slightly neutral, and open interest at 56,000 shows no withdrawal. Strategy: light short positions at a rebound to 4078.6, stop loss at 4092.3, target 4041.7; if it pulls back and stabilizes at 4035.8, consider short-term long positions, stop loss at 4027.4, target 4066.2. Keep single position size within 5%, exit upon breaking boundaries.
— For personal reference only, not investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$XAU #Robinhood Q3 revenue growth, net profit decline
#Samsung Q3 profit expected to increase nearly 8 times, full financial report coming soon
$XAU Kamino and Backpack integrated tokenized US stocks into the isolated lending pool Backpack Market last night. The collateral includes SPCX, MU, SKHY, and SNDK, with an official 1:1 redemption ratio; LTV is roughly 40% for MU and SKHY, and 30% for SPCX and SNDK. The oracle locks the closing price when the US stock market is closed. Kamino states that about $50 million worth of tokenized equity is pledged on the platform; Solana-side tokenized stock holders number about 1.5 million, and Backpack's cumulative transaction volume is about $6 billion. CoinGecko spot price for KMNO is approximately $0.0385 (snapshot around 08:05 Beijing time).
This is more like embedding equity collateral usable even on weekends into Solana lending, rather than just telling another conceptual story. Critics will focus on two points: whether liquidation after the oracle locks the price during market closure and the market opens with a gap will proceed smoothly; and whether the isolated pool has enough liquidity or if it will collapse under pressure.
If Backpack Market's collateral balance barely rises within a week, or if liquidation falters during gap openings, then treat this as a product launch pulse rather than a fully operational tokenized equity lending.
$KMNO
#Kamino #TokenizedUSStocks#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $BTC $ETH $SNDK
Short-term cryptocurrency trend: The FOMC's "hawkish crack" is eroding a fragile balance
Bitcoin is currently around $81,000, seemingly holding the 80,000 level, but the resistance above is very concrete: buyers' costs over the past two years are concentrated at $87,000 and above, ETF holders' average cost is about $81,500, and prices staying below $81,500 will push the ETF average holdings into unrealized losses, thereby weakening on-chain support. Technically, $80,000 is the short-term lifeline; if it breaks down with volume, the next reference level is between $78,500 and $79,500, with deeper support in the $76,000–$77,500 range; on the upside, $81,000–$81,800 is immediate resistance, and it is difficult to stabilize before reclaiming $82,300.
Ethereum's situation is more passive than Bitcoin's. ETH is currently around $2,310–$2,360, having broken below the daily ascending channel lower boundary, with a clear short-term weakening structure. More troublesome is the capital flow: Ethereum spot ETFs have seen a cumulative outflow of about $1.32 billion in October, just about $100 million shy of the historical record from November 2025; another $100 million outflow before October 30 would set a new record. $2,250 is the most critical demand zone below; if lost, $2,160 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement) will quickly come into view; on the upside, it needs to first reclaim $2,355–$2,362 (100-day EMA) $BNB CZ rang the Nasdaq opening bell, the burn was done, it pumped to 751 seconds then fell back.
The ceremony was full of fanfare, but the market buying pressure simply didn't respond.
Mainstream AI settlements are all done via credit cards, no matter how much traffic, it won't flow to BNB.
As for that new L1, the testnet won't be ready until the end of 2026, and the mainnet will be delayed until 2027.
Distant water can't put out a nearby fire; after this wave of positive news is realized, the selling pressure above is extremely heavy, so in the short term, it will still have to fall.
#BNB
$BNB
👇The World Bank poured cold water today: global commodity prices are expected to rise another 23% by 2026.
The reason is simple — the Middle East war is pushing up energy prices, the Black Sea grain route is blocked, and safe-haven funds are flowing into gold. It sounds like "war-driven safe haven," but for those of us dealing with risk assets, this is actually bad news.
Many people have a reflex: once war breaks out, they instinctively think it's good for gold and BTC. Wrong. War first pushes oil prices up, oil prices push inflation, and inflation holds back central banks from cutting interest rates. The end of this chain is: higher interest rates and tighter liquidity. High-beta assets like $BTC are never safe havens in this environment; they are the first to get drained.
So look at tonight: gold prices are rising, oil prices are rising, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is stuck near 5%. When these three rise together, don't rush to call it risk-on.
Do you believe more in "war as a safe haven" or "war leading to rate hikes"? After one night, the answer is revealed: Google didn't hold up, Microsoft did, and the market's rewards and punishments are very clear.
On Google's side, revenue was $127.58 billion, up 25% year-over-year, which looks good but is still slightly below market expectations; more painfully, earnings per share were only $2.12, compared to an expected nearly $3 — an $8.7 billion securities investment loss directly dragged net profit down by 25%. The only bright spot was the cloud business, with revenue of $30.7 billion, more than doubling year-over-year. After-hours stock price once dropped over 8%.
Microsoft's side painted a different picture: revenue was $92.28 billion, exceeding the $90.6 billion expectation; earnings per share were $4.89, also surpassing the roughly $4.72 expected; Azure growth was 48%, even stronger than the expected 44%–45%; capital expenditures were not as scary as the market feared. After-hours, the stock rose about 4%.
The same night, the same AI money-burning story, the market gave two verdicts: burning money is acceptable, but the accounts must add up. Google’s cloud is impressive, but the books are dragging it down; Microsoft exceeded expectations across the board and spent money more prudently than expected.
In the crypto world, $BTC this morning was $81,194, standing back above $81,000; $ETH was $2,357, +0.3%, holding steady. The two big companies had one penalty and one reward, but the crypto market didn’t follow with big swings. #微软Azure增长43%，AI商业化能否提速？ $PEPE ETH short liquidations exceed $1.1 billion, but the fuel for this rally is a "short squeeze," not spot buying. Before the FOMC decision, the risk of chasing highs far outweighs the rewards.
$ETH is quoted at 2,357.55 (+1.01%). This $1.1 billion liquidation mostly comes from leveraged positions; the real large-scale short liquidation zone is above $2,891. The impulse caused by a short squeeze is often rapid but short-lived, with resistance still dense above.
$BTC is quoted at 81,260.4 (+0.92%). It has reclaimed above 81,000, but the macro resistance zone at $82,000 has not been effectively broken. Under existing supply and demand battles, the market direction still faces a choice.
$SOL is quoted at 102.29 (+1.27%). The price rebound diverges from the continuous ten-day net outflow of funds from ETFs. Although the ecosystem is active, funds are withdrawing, making it difficult to strengthen independently amid macro uncertainty.
Summary
The rise driven by a short squeeze is prone to sharp declines after rapid gains. After shorts are fully liquidated, without macro tailwinds and spot inflows to follow, the pressure for a pullback will increase sharply. Defense is paramount before the decision.
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 Microsoft's earnings report isn't actually bad: Azure grew 48%, and free cash flow remains stable. But after reading it, I'm not optimistic at all.
Because on the same night, Google plunged 10% after hours due to "spending so much money but seeing no AI returns." Putting the two earnings reports together, the glaring common point is: capital expenditures are still out of control and soaring, with Microsoft's next quarter capex guidance directly calling for over $50 billion.
The only difference is—Microsoft can still temporarily spin the story with "cloud is growing," but Google can't spin it tonight. The market is shifting from "all AI is rising" to "only AI that can monetize is recognized." This shift is far more important than whether interest rates go up or down.
Once the divergence starts, it won't just kill one. Who tells an unconvincing story next is the one to really watch.
Which one do you bet won't hold up first? BTC ETF fund flow turns negative again! (｡•́︿•̀ω•́｡)
In June, ETF net outflow was $4.5 billion, then $6.2 billion flowed back in August-September, funds are like a roller coaster. Entering October, the trend changes again: so far a net outflow of $203 million, institutional sentiment clearly turning cautious. Today the Fed interest rate decision is coming, the market is more focused on the "signal" rather than a single data point: if the wording is dovish and ETFs subsequently turn positive consecutively, BTC is expected to stabilize and recover; if hawkish combined with expanding outflows, short-term pressure probability rises (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
Market interpretation: short-term oscillation is weak, mid-term not pessimistic, key is the liquidity inflection point. Don’t rush to guess tops or bottoms, ETF fund flow is the "thermometer" of institutional sentiment, the Fed is a short-term catalyst 👀
Keep a close eye on continuous ETF net inflows/outflows and the Fed’s path, the answer will gradually emerge～
$BTC
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布
#BitcoinETF #BTC #美联储 #资金流Total market cap returns to 3 trillion, but BTC has fallen from 87,000 to 81,316 — 3 trillion is a mirror of sentiment, not a pool of funds.
$BTC: $81,316. Above $87,000 is a cost-intensive zone for buyers over the past two years; selling pressure has twice ended this year's rally. This surge was accompanied by short squeeze and leverage buildup; 87,000 looks more like a short-term overheating ceiling rather than the start of a new trend.
$ETH: $2,359. ETFs still saw a net outflow of $88.6 million in a single day, with BlackRock's ETHA accounting for the majority. The staking narrative (Fidelity and BlackRock pushing ETF staking) runs parallel with capital outflows. $2,400 is the first test to see if the "yield-bearing asset" narrative can withstand selling pressure.
$SOL: $102.4. On-chain transactions exceeded 9 billion in October, but TVL dropped from 6.42 billion to 5.76 billion, a decline of 10.28%, with outflows faster than ETH. Users remain, but capital is withdrawing; $100 is a fragile defensive line amid liquidity contraction.
Summary: The 3 trillion total market cap is a product of short covering and sentiment recovery, not a signal of broad rotation. If BTC does not hold above 87,000, rotation is just a back-and-forth of existing funds among several major coins.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 The Federal Reserve's decision last night was a 10 to 2 vote. Officials Cook and Harker directly voted against, advocating an immediate 25 basis point rate hike.
$BTC ETF inflows
Spot $BTC ETFs have seen net inflows for two consecutive days, with BlackRock's IBIT buying $151.5 million in a single day, and Fidelity's FBTC adding $24.5 million.
Capital is highly concentrated, meaning the ETF's support is monopolar; if IBIT turns, the entire ETF buying will quickly thin out.
The options market shows a short-to-medium term divergence.
Deribit data indicates Bitcoin's one-week put/call skew has dropped from nearly 10% a week ago to less than 1%, showing a clear weakening in short-term downside protection demand.
However, the one-month, three-month, and six-month terms still lean toward put options. This suggests traders' concerns about the FOMC window itself are decreasing, but there is no shift toward optimism in the long term.
The liquidation map clearly marks the downside risk.
Around $78,000, nearly $3 billion in long liquidations are piled up. QCP Capital defines $78,000 as support, $86,000 as resistance, and $77,000–$78,000 as the lower bound buyers must defend.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Money is choosing sides, BTC's ETF is back, while ETH's is still ongoing.
The US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $176 million on Tuesday, $110 million on Monday, totaling $286 million in two days, with IBIT alone accounting for $152 million.
ETH ETF is moving in the opposite direction, with a combined outflow of about $149 million on Monday and Tuesday, and a total outflow of $1.32 billion in October, nearly matching the worst month.
Prices haven't diverged though; BTC is now at 81,326, up 0.72%, ETH at 2,360, up 0.55%, both still hovering around their previous levels.
I think this divergence is more worth watching than the price: institutions are putting money back into the most stable one first, ETH's funding hasn't kept up, so don't get too excited above 2,360.
$BTC $ETH
Not investment advice #Strategy earnings preview: The significant rebound in BTC's book profits indicates a warming confidence in institutional holdings, with risk appetite spillover being somewhat positive for high-beta assets like DOT, but I will not chase the rally because of this. The market, however, is not cooperating: current price 1.0091, both the 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages are trending downward, the 4-hour has retraced 18.36% from the high, the buy/sell ratio in the top 10 levels is only 0.47, showing clear selling pressure dominance, and the funding rate of 0.0065% indicates longs are still paying to hold positions, reflecting fragile sentiment. Discipline-wise, I only do two things: place a short at 1.0315 with a stop loss at 1.0458 and a target of 0.9912; if there is a sharp drop to 0.9885, lightly buy with a stop loss at 0.9742 and a target of 1.0186. Single position size does not exceed 5%, exit immediately on stop loss, no holding through losses, no adding to positions.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading.——
$DOT#Strategy earnings preview: The significant rebound in BTC's book profits
#Strategy earnings preview: The significant rebound in BTC's book profits
$DOT Microsoft's earnings report shows GAAP EPS of 4.92, with no one-time items this quarter, and Azure grew by 48%.
MSFT's GAAP diluted EPS this quarter is 4.92, non-GAAP is 4.89, consensus was 4.71. The difference between the two numbers this time is +0.03, and the press release attributes this to net income from OpenAI.
The phrase "discrete items" from last quarter does not appear this time, and there is no mention of one-time items in the press release. The portion of non-GAAP exceeding expectations comes from the core business.
4.89 - 4.71 = 0.18
The forward estimate was 4.88, actual was 4.92. The core business is estimated to exceed by 0.20, actual is 0.18, roughly the same. OpenAI was estimated to reduce by 0.03, actual added 0.03, the direction was estimated incorrectly, but the amount is very small.
Azure grew 48% this quarter, 48% at constant currency as well, guidance was 44% to 45%. According to the revised September methodology, last quarter was 42%. The forward-looking reminder is not to compare with the old 43% figure; whichever is used now, it clearly shows acceleration.
Capital expenditures were not mentioned in the main text of the press release this quarter; the cash flow statement shows $39.4 billion spent on fixed assets, last quarter was $35.8 billion. Guidance will be provided during the conference call.
OKEx's MSFT perpetual was around 532 before the numbers came out, peaked at 565.7, and was at 554.9 around 4 AM Beijing time, up about 4%.
Did this quarter beat expectations? Yes, 4.92 is higher than 4.82. When I see this kind of news, my first thought isn't which sector will rise, but who bears the risk and who takes the income. No matter how big the direction is, if the price is prematurely overdrawn, the odds can also be poor.
Y Combinator released the October 2026 crypto startup guide, pointing out that for the first time in the past year, industry growth was led by institutions rather than consumers, focusing on asset tokenization, stablecoins, and AI trading agents. I pay more attention to the first two: corporate capital flow has real demand, which has a better chance of generating sustained income than relying solely on speculative heat; asset on-chain still has to pass the two hurdles of ownership confirmation and liquidity, it’s not just about issuing a token.
My judgment is that this means more for financial infrastructure than for sentiment around concept coins. If actual usage increases and income can cover compliance and operating costs, then I think it’s worth continuing to study; if it’s just changing the narrative to boost valuation, the expectations may not be worthwhile. Whether AI agents can become users who pay continuously is what I want to watch next.$GOOGL
1 billion. Gemini's app user count officially surpassed 1 billion today, and Google's celebration article hasn't even cooled down yet, but the stock price fell 8.5% in after-hours trading.
What really upset the market was another matter: Alphabet raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance to $195 billion to $205 billion and also led the bond issuance for Anthropic's Texas data center. Now the banking industry has put this issuance on hold, and Fitch has also come out warning that the AI boom combined with rising yields threatens the global market.
I tested the market: OKX's GOOGL token contract is currently priced at $294, down more than 9% in 24 hours, hitting a low of $288. Meanwhile, Microsoft's Azure revenue grew 48%, and its stock price rose 6%. The market doesn't disbelieve AI; it just dislikes how fast you're spending money.
The user count surpassing 1 billion is real growth, and burning money to the point Wall Street feels sorry is also true. Both things are true at the same time, and that's the most unreasonable part of earnings season. By the way, a bit of self-mockery: I worry about their hundreds of billions budget with my little capital, and no one pays me for being stunned.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $SNDK
An SK Hynix executive said at last night's earnings call: AI storage demand will outpace supply, continuing until 2030. Hearing this from the manufacturer carries more weight than from analysts.
The numbers are solid. SK Hynix's Q3 revenue more than tripled year-over-year, operating profit increased sixfold, and the stock price jumped 13%. SanDisk followed suit, with US stocks rising up to 6% last night. I tested OKX's SNDK token contract; the current price is $1368, with a 24-hour high of $1421.
This is interesting. Over the past month, SanDisk fell from over 1800 to 1238, dropping 30%, with widespread talk of a storage cycle peak. But then a peer mentioned shortages lasting until 2030, and the funds returned.
Tonight after US market close, it will release earnings, with company guidance of $10.3 to $10.8 billion in revenue. Whether it's peaked or not, the data will decide. Anyway, I've learned my lesson: manufacturer orders are more honest than candlestick charts.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 The headline scenario is arresting: a hacked Satoshi Nakamoto wallet, a forced liquidation, and $BTC collapsing 80% in seconds. The figure of $88.3 billion gives the story its menace. But the leap from stolen coins to instant market collapse hides more than it reveals. A compromised wallet does not hand an attacker a working exit. It hands them a problem. Size is the first obstacle. Selling a fortune in $BTC requires buyers on the other side, and liquidity is not a constant. Order books thin undGoogle's Q3 earnings per share were 2.12, with holdings only dragging it down by 0.55; most of the remaining gap is in the core business.
GOOGL's Q3 GAAP diluted EPS was 2.12, while the consensus expectation excluding holdings was around 3.02. The impact of holdings is clearly stated in the press release.
Holdings had a pre-tax loss of $8.7 billion, after tax $6.7 billion, reducing EPS by 0.55. Adding that back, it still falls short of consensus by over 0.30.
2.12 + 0.55 = 2.67
So the underperformance this quarter is only partly on the books; most of the rest is in the core business. Operating margin was 31.8%, down from 34% in Q2.
The forward estimate was 2.24, let's compare. The loss from holdings was overestimated; SpaceX plus other listed holdings were estimated at 0.74 per share, actual was 0.55. The core business was overestimated; excluding holdings, the estimate was about 2.98, actual 2.67. Offsetting each other, the final difference was 0.12. The forward-looking headline "The drag is SpaceX, not the business" is only half correct.
Google Cloud is the positive side. Revenue was $30.7 billion, up 103% year-over-year, consensus was $29.16 billion. Q3 capital expenditure was 51.4 billion, totaling about 132 billion for the first three quarters.
OKEx's GOOGL perpetual was around 326 before the numbers, dropped below 300 within minutes, at about 4 a.m. Beijing time it was 300.7, down about 7.8%.
Did this quarter beat expectations? Choose No; GAAP 2.12 did not beat 3.10, also No.The UAE's money is treating Bitcoin as a treasury asset.
SAC announced the establishment of its headquarters in Abu Dhabi and simultaneously launched a $1.5 billion investment strategy with a dual approach: one leg buys local real estate to generate income through rent; the other leg builds a Bitcoin reserve, exclusively managed by Coinbase Asset Management, aiming to generate additional returns from the holdings.
This structure is worth a close look. Real estate provides predictable cash flow, Bitcoin offers long-term appreciation flexibility, and the asset manager is responsible for enhancing returns without selling the principal. These three elements are combined into one pool, balancing risk and return, which is a typical long-term institutional approach rather than a short-term position chasing price spikes.
More importantly, this is a signal. Sovereign-level capital from the Middle East, which previously only made tentative contacts with crypto assets, is now directly incorporating them into formal investment frameworks, complete with custody and asset management arrangements. This means the nature of the incoming funds has changed: from trading capital to allocation capital. Allocation capital tends to buy and hold with little movement, improving the chip structure over the long term and having limited impact on short-term price stimulation.
Therefore, such news should not be treated as a single bullish candlestick for trading. What really needs attention is what follows: whether a second or third Gulf capital will replicate this structure. If $1.5 billion is just the beginning, Bitcoin's marginal buying demand gains a stable new source. The $BTC story is shifting from a retail narrative to a balance sheet narrative.The market took the Fed's decision to hold steady as a known outcome, yet the close was still in the green. The S&P rose 0.28% to 7743.98, the Nasdaq gained 0.27% to 26549.85, and the Dow increased 0.19% to 52475.10. All three indices closed near their highs but traded sideways repeatedly during the session, indicating that investors did not see this as the start of a bull run, just a confirmation that there was no unexpected shock. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4% with a 10-to-2 vote, with two members favoring a rate hike. The statement changed the description of economic activity from "solid" to "strong," while inflation was still described as "elevated." Chairman Waller emphasized after the meeting that more data is needed. The bond market wavered, with the 10-year Treasury yield closing near 5%, not fully suppressed. The market is trading on the idea that the pace of rate hikes is temporarily paused, but no one believes inflation is over. The real drivers pushing the indices are storage and AI infrastructure. Micron rose nearly 6%, Broadcom also had a good gain, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index strengthened. South Korea's SK Hynix reported profits soaring sevenfold, with orders lined up through 2029, reaffirming expectations of memory shortages. Oracle surged over 10% intraday as investors raised their long-term revenue targets more aggressively. Nvidia, however, fell more than 1% that day, becoming a drag. This is not a broad tech rally but capital focusing on the tightest links in the AI supply chain. After hours, Microsoft and Google released earnings. Microsoft's cloud business exceeded expectations, while Google's revenue fell short, causing their after-hours stock prices to diverge. The tech sector held up during the session partly because some were waiting for these two companies' final answers. CanFederal Reserve October Meeting: Pause Does Not Equal Pivot
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.75%–4.00% in October, with a 10-to-2 vote and two dissenting votes favoring a rate hike. On the surface, this "meets expectations," but in reality, it leans hawkish and cautious: the possibility of a rate hike in December remains, and rate cuts are not under discussion. Cook cast his first dissenting vote, citing inflationary pressures from AI infrastructure; Walsh reminded that AI expansion is not immune to interest rate effects, as rates transmit to nearly all assets, and some credit spreads have already widened. The statement removed forward guidance, and future strategic meetings without voting will be added, signaling a clear narrowing of communication. Tightening credit conditions are not an urgent concern for the Fed to hedge against. For the US stock and crypto markets, do not interpret the "pause" as a "pivot" in the short term: high rates continue to suppress valuations, and small to mid-sized projects with high financing dependence are more sensitive to credit spreads. The focus going forward is whether credit spreads will continue to widen. This does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $ETH It's almost 8 AM, just brewed some coffee and glanced at last night's ETF data, and it made me laugh. This isn't Wall Street institutions; it's basically a large-scale split personality scene! Don't rush to check the market; these core data sets are today's indicators.
$BTC was dumping over 70 million a few days ago, but yesterday the trend suddenly changed! Not only did it not run away, it actually saw a slight inflow of 160,000, and the day before yesterday it aggressively poured in 21.96 million. What does this mean? At the 80,000 level, institutions are reluctant to cut losses; big money's attitude has shifted from withdrawing to lying flat and watching.
Looking at $ETH, the drama is the richest here! BlackRock was still aggressively selling over 40,000 yesterday, but Fidelity and Grayscale mini trusts turned around and bought nearly 20,000, forcibly turning the total volume into a net inflow of 19.58 million. This shows that smart money has huge divergences at this Ethereum level, but the bottom support is clearly strengthening; someone is quietly accumulating.
Finally, $SOL is still a bit miserable, with another 56,300 running out yesterday. Although it’s still outflowing, compared to the massive losses of tens of thousands in previous days, the selling pressure has indeed weakened a lot.
Summary: The data is very clear. Institutions are not only stopping the dumping but have even started to support Ethereum. Although the overall market is still fluctuating, the most panic-driven one-sided sell-off is likely over. Chasing shorts now is definitely reckless, but don’t go all-in betting on a reversal either.
Since institutions are reluctant to dump the market, do you think Bitcoin can lead a volume-backed rebound today?
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Three prices, three quiet shifts in market plumbing. At $BTC 80,680, the Coinbase premium is narrowing. Bitcoin still trades at a slight markup on the US exchange, but the gap has compressed — retail buyers in the US are still present, just no longer rushing. That distinction matters. A premium that shrinks without flipping negative points to fading urgency rather than exit. At $ETH 2,338, the median gas fee is falling this month, and the cause is not weaker activity. Transactions have migrated DEX daily trading volume is only $900, has CORE's DeFi ecosystem 'died'?
A single-chain DEX daily trading volume as low as $900 is a striking figure, directly reflecting that DeFi liquidity on the Core chain has severely dried up. But it is important to distinguish: the BTC consensus staking layer ≠ Core chain DeFi application layer; these are two completely independent systems, so we cannot directly conclude that the entire project is completely dead. ✅ Current analysis: On the Core chain, DeFi protocols like Colend and COREx have seen liquidity and traders massively withdraw, DEX slippage is huge, and ordinary users are no longer willing to perform token swaps or lending operations on the Core chain. The on-chain DeFi application layer is nearly in shock. The DeFi ecosystem cannot generate enough fee income, so the foundation's envisioned fee buyback CORE flywheel naturally struggles to operate. ❌ However, the project has not completely zeroed out. The Satoshi Plus consensus layer still has BTC participating in staking, and institutional BTCFi products like Nawa Finance are still advancing. Its narrative foundation does not rely on ordinary retail DeFi trading but on Bitcoin staking yield, which is also the biggest difference from ordinary EVM public chains. Ordinary public chains rely on on-chain trading and lending for income, while CORE's value proposition depends on Bitcoin staking business for revenue. ⚠️ Core risk: Even if BTC staking data remains acceptable, the collapse of on-chain DeFi activity is still a huge negative. Without active trading users on-chain, it is very difficult for new ecosystem projects to... South Korean AI chip startup FuriosaAI has completed a $620 million Series D funding round, with a valuation of $2.9 billion. Investors include Jericho Capital, the Korea Growth Fund, among others, with existing shareholders Naver, Korea Development Bank, and Kakao Investment all participating. The Export-Import Bank of Korea made its first direct investment in a startup.
Looking at the structure first. Policy banks, sovereign funds, and industrial capital all appear on the same list, which is uncommon in Asian semiconductor financing. The Export-Import Bank previously only provided credit guarantees; this time it took direct equity, effectively elevating AI chips to the status of a strategic asset.
Next, the direction. Over the past two years, AI funding has mainly focused on the model and application layers. Capital expenditure on chips is heavy and cycles are long, so it has been underestimated. This round’s valuation reaching $2.9 billion indicates that capital is starting to replenish positions at the very upstream of computing power.
For the crypto market, this kind of news affects sentiment rather than cash flow. Decentralized computing power networks rely on GPU supply and demand for pricing, AI application tokens rely on product iteration for pricing, and hardware-end financing has a more direct transmission effect on the former. $TAO is a liquidity-leading token in this narrative and usually moves first when news breaks.
However, financing is a signal of market prosperity, not token fundamentals. Industry investment only shows the sector is not cooling down; it does not mean token revenue will increase. If you want to participate, waiting for a pullback and observing trading volume is safer than chasing highs on the day of the news. CORE on-chain TVL dropped from 1 billion to 4 million, yet BTC staking is still rising. Who is swimming naked?
Many people are misled by the data, thinking that BTC staking growth equals the entire ecosystem's prosperity. But the core truth is: the BTC staking funds of CORE and the TVL of Core chain DeFi are two separate sets of funds. BTC staking is locked on the Bitcoin mainnet through CLTV time locks; the assets have not crossed over into Core chain's DeFi contracts, they are only used to participate in the Satoshi Plus consensus to earn CORE rewards. Meanwhile, the TVL that everyone sees plummeting is the liquidity funds inside DeFi applications like Colend and DEX on the Core chain.
✅ Why is there a split market: BTC whales value self-custody staking, keeping assets on the Bitcoin chain with risk isolation, and are willing to continuously participate in consensus staking; however, retail investors and DeFi speculative funds have massively withdrawn from various DeFi protocols on the Core chain, causing on-chain trading and lending activities to shrink rapidly, directly resulting in a cliff drop in DeFi sector TVL.
❌ Who is swimming naked? 1. The DeFi ecosystem has been voted with feet by funds: the collapse of on-chain DeFi TVL means active funds willing to lend and trade on the Core chain have largely fled, and the real activity of ecosystem applications is very poor; 2. BTC staking can only guarantee participation at the consensus layer and cannot directly convert into Core chain DeFi fee income, making it difficult to create sustained buy pressure for the CORE token; 3. Added to this is the withdrawal of independent validators.The chain has been down for almost six days, and the coin has risen by 75%
Initia's L1 has been down since the night of October 23.
I checked the official status page early today, all green, saying all services are online.
I casually curl'ed the node, got a 502.
During the same period, INIT rose from 0.1267 to above 0.22.
At 22:59 on October 23, someone exploited a MoveVM script cache vulnerability to forge status.
They arbitrarily credited WETH, iUSD, USDC, and transferred over two million.
INIT itself was not inflated.
The next day, the team proactively shut down L1 and all Rollups, and Upbit and Bithumb suspended INIT deposits and withdrawals that night.
Then the coin started to rise.
I originally wanted to write about the largest transaction ever, but after checking data since February, it seems not.
On October 28, 78 million, the largest since February, 79 times the average volume of the previous twenty days.
I've actually been watching this for a long time.
The chain is down, unlocking can't proceed, exchanges can't access it, so the circulating supply is effectively physically removed.
Short sellers have no coins to deliver, so the price drifts upward, unrelated to optimism.
So I don't chase it.
If it breaks above 0.2577 with volume, that's real buying, I acknowledge that.
If it falls below 0.1896 and can't recover, the second phase begins.
The day of the restart announcement is the real test.
On the day of the restart, guess if it will rebound or drop?
$INIT
#TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heard Don't be fooled by FOMO: How to operate CORE at its current position
The community is spreading narratives like "miss it and wait three years" and "whales quietly accumulating," which easily trigger FOMO emotions and impulsive buying. But the area around $0.017 is just a speculative position, not a clear bottom. You must strictly distinguish between position size and expectations in your operations. ✅If you haven't taken a position yet, don't go all in at once. CORE still faces three major core risks: continuous withdrawal of independent validators, 69 million ghost tokens that could dump at any time, and the SatPay and revenue buyback flywheel not yet implemented. Even if the BTCFi sector warms up, it's only a wave rebound. If you want to participate, only use a very small position to test the waters, define this fund as track speculation capital, so even if you lose it all, it won't affect your total capital. Set stop-losses in advance and decisively exit once key support is broken. ✅If you already hold a position: don't add to your position or average down impulsively because of FOMO talk in the community. Continuously track two core leading indicators: changes in the number of independent validators and whether whale addresses are continuously transferring funds into exchanges. If validators stabilize and fundamentals show substantial improvement, you can keep your original position; if ghost tokens or whales are continuously withdrawing to dump, consider reducing your position to lock in some tokens and lower holding risk. ❌The biggest pitfall: equating "oversold" with "certain to surge," getting caught up in narratives of 100x or 60x gains and adding more positions, sinking deeper into losses. CORE is a high-risk, high-reward speculative asset, not a value bottom position.Seeing WLFI and TRUMP weaken together, many people's first reaction is "the market is going to crash." Is that really the case? My strongest impression from watching the market these past two days is: this looks more like a localized retreat, not a sudden contraction of risk appetite across the entire market. Companies related to the Trump family have started to hire lawyers intensively, and the market is guessing whether their influence will be discounted after the midterm elections, so WLFI and TRUMP are being priced in first. But pay attention to the rhythm—WLFI has been steadily declining since its launch, RSI at 36.5, MA7 at 0.0537, MA20 at 0.0555, MA30 at 0.0556, all three moving averages pressing down from above, with a 30-day position of only 12.6%. This is a typical pattern of divergence followed by a downward trend and low-level consolidation, not a panic sell-off. TRUMP is even more obvious, with EMA20 at 1.80, EMA50 at 1.90, EMA200 at 2.22, a bearish alignment; every rebound meets selling pressure, and the intraday pivot at 1.68 is the last cover—if it closes below that, there will truly be no support left. The signal I see is: funds are not withdrawing from all risk assets but are making cuts within sectors. Political narrative tokens are being cut first because their valuations include "policy dividend" expectations, and once election uncertainty arises, this premium is squeezed out first. BTC surged to 81303 then slipped, with 145.7 million liquidated in 24 hours, 77% of which were shorts, indicating the rise was driven by short squeezes, not spot buying support, so the support is naturally weak. If Trump is truly weakened after the midterm elections, BTC breaking below 75After the FOMC decision, BTC briefly surged to 81,000, but the pressure to break even at 87,000 remains.
The policy kept the interest rate unchanged, BTC briefly broke through 81,000, currently at 80,500, down slightly by 0.12% in 24 hours. Buyers' costs over the past two years are concentrated above 87,000; this level suppressed rebounds twice this year, each followed by at least a 25% pullback; ETF holders' average cost is about 81,500, with the price below this line, reducing unrealized loss pressure and supporting on-chain.
$BTC is about 80,500. ETF inflows over two days total 286 million, with IBIT alone accounting for 151.5 million, FBTC only 24.5 million, and the rest almost zero; October net outflow narrowed to about 26 million. Money is returning, but the entry points are very narrow.
$ETH is about 2,340. October ETF net outflow is 1.32 billion, just about 100 million shy of the historical record. The 2,310–2,328 range overlaps on-chain cost, 200-day EMA, and cost of addresses holding a thousand tokens; the daily close at 2,310 is critical.
$SOL is about 101.9. SOL ETF single-day outflow was 19.16 million, the largest since December 2025; weekly outflow was 27.38 million, the worst single week since launch. 100 dollars is the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern; daily chart confirmed a breakdown, 80 only comes into view then.
In short: BTC's ETF only opened two entry points, ETH is confronting between cost zone and record outflows, SOL just experienced its worst single week. Money is neither panicking nor spreading.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 BTC returns to 80,000, the excitement varies (◔‿◔)
$BTC is back at 80,350, the 80,000 whole number level has been reclaimed, but it hasn't yet crossed the "actual traded high" area around 80,497. The price improvement is a fact, and the direction is also uncertain—a burden the 80,000 level itself doesn't carry (￣▽￣)ノ
$BICO rose 1.5% to 0.01523, but the 24-hour trading volume is only 157,000 USDT. The increase shows there is direction, but how a slightly larger order is executed, this data doesn't provide a reference. Price advancement and execution conditions need to be analyzed separately (・_・;)
$RE rose 2.8% to 0.3721, with the contract funding rate dropping from 0.0050% to 0.0024%, reducing the holding cost for long positions. The rebound didn't simultaneously raise this expense, which is quite comfortable. But the funding rate only concerns holding costs, not direction—two different things (｡•̀ᴗ-)✧
$XRP rose 1.9% to 1.3185, previously paused at 1.3086, now moving into a higher area, leaving new trading traces above 1.31. This upward move has a comparable price process, so the evaluation shifts from "narrow tug-of-war" to a more positive one, based on the distance crossed, without adding explanatory news (＾▽＾)
All are in the green, but BICO lacks trading references, RE benefits from lower funding rates, and XRP has a price process—the excitement differs, so what you look at shouldn't be the same (￣ω￣)
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 At 2 a.m., the Federal Reserve decision was announced.
10 to 2, maintaining 3.75%–4.00%.
Two dissenting votes, both advocating for a rate hike.
⚖️ Hawkish pause
The dissenters were Cook and Harker.
Both wanted a 25 basis point increase.
There was just a hike in September.
Now some think it's still not tight enough.
🗣 Wash sets the tone
"Don't trust forward guidance unless there's a crisis."
Meaning no roadmap is given.
He also said they are ready to take action.
📊 December is fully priced in
By December, 23.4 basis points are priced in.
At 25 basis points per hike, about a 94% probability.
By March next year, a total of 46 basis points.
Almost two hikes.
Before the meeting, this number was only 67%.
🪙 Crypto didn't keep up
BTC 81,338, up 0.64% in 24 hours.
Fear & Greed Index 51, neutral.
Interest rate market at 94%, sentiment index still in the middle.
🎯 Three scenarios ahead
1. December hike with softer wording: already priced in, no new shock.
2. Oil prices fall, inflation expectations decline: December hike fails, market reverses.
3. Inflation rises: steeper path, 46 basis points not enough.
👀 I'm watching three things
Oil prices.
Inflation expectations before December.
Whether the Fear & Greed Index can move away from 50.
Data: FOMC statement and Wash press conference (10-29 03:44) #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 The beautiful upward curve on the ECG often appears during the last compensatory contraction before cardiac arrest.
$IMX currently shows textbook-level compensation. It has risen 3.56% on the books in 24 hours, with a decent uphill slope on the monitor that looks like resuscitation. But when you press the probe down for an ultrasound—the Bollinger Bands short-term position has already hit 111%, the price is hanging outside the upper band, with only -0.3% margin from the upper band and a 3.4% gap from the lower band. The vessel walls have expanded to the limit, and pushing forward leaves basically no room. This is tachycardia after blood loss, not the myocardium exerting force.
The most critical factor is the long-term cycle: RSI is only 52.8, neutral. The short-term 68.2 is excited, but the long-term 52.8 means no real blood supply. Heart rate is pulled to 120, but stroke volume is insufficient; you wouldn’t dare touch adrenaline with this patient. The mid-term Bollinger Band position is 89%, +0.5% from the upper band, +4.4% from the lower band—the space is already pressed to the ceiling, and a pullback only needs a sigh.
So my judgment is straightforward: superficially rising, essentially ischemic. The direction is short, and I sign off on it. What’s being shorted is not the price, but a circulatory system that has exhausted its compensatory capacity.
The surgical plan must be precise to the millimeter, not based on feel:
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.13 (current price +2.7%)
Take Profit 1: 0.12 (-6.2%)
Take Profit 2: 0.12 (-4.2%)
Stop Loss: 0.14 (+13.2%)
The entry point is set 2.7% above the current price, equivalent to waiting for a postoperative rebound before reopening the chest, not chasing a pulsating artery cut. The two take profit levels fall between 4.2% and 6.2%, which corresponds exactly to the normal path of price falling from the upper band back to the middle band—not violent bloodletting, but isotonic replenishment. Why dare set the stop loss at +13.2%? Because you must allow room for reperfusion injury: if the price can push up another 13%, it means the baseline of 52.8 has changed, and then the lesion is no longer overbought, and I misread the scan—time to step back.
The odds are not pretty. 6.2 to 13.2 equals only half the survival benefit of a bypass. So this surgery can only be a local excision, never open chest—the position size is pressed to a level that can withstand one defibrillation shock. Anyone who treats these odds as the main operation will end up dying from their own shaky hands.
Final determination: the short-term 68.2 is a false positive; the long-term 52.8 is the true negative.Look beyond the earnings report to Strategy's “wallet discipline”
After the market close on October 29, Strategy will release its Q3 earnings report. Preliminary data shows its Q3 digital asset fair value gains are expected to reach $20.9 billion, holding about 848,000 BTC. The numbers are impressive, but the real highlight of this report is not the paper profits, but capital allocation: the company recently repurchased about $176 million in STRC preferred shares, sending a clear signal — this largest treasury company is shifting from “financing to buy coins” to “preserving credit and stabilizing capital structure.” In a high interest rate environment, this defensive move is not surprising.
The market is already anticipating this today: MSTR up 1.85%, xMSTR up 1.89%. But the MSCI new regulation risk still hangs overhead; if removed, it could trigger passive sell-offs and impact financing ability. Until this uncertainty is resolved, MSTR’s valuation premium is unlikely to fully open. The earnings call will be key to listen to: will management continue to repair the balance sheet or re-leverage to buy coins?
For the crypto market, Strategy’s stance is a critical variable directly affecting BTC’s structural buying. In trading, don’t just focus on positive numbers; time-sensitive risks remain, so orders must have stop-losses set in advance. #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 The community has been all over Brother Jima's story these past two days. His long position cards are fully revealed: 3,000 BTC longs at an average price of 86,000, 50,000 ETH longs, 500,000 SOL longs, with unrealized losses of tens of millions. The huge hole is out in the open, and the whole network is just waiting for him to be liquidated for entertainment.
Let's cool things down first: it's very hard for him to get liquidated. Three full positions, BTC liquidation price at 52,000, ETH at 1,800, SOL at 75, with billions in margin padding. Even if prices drop further, only net worth is hurt, the foundation remains intact.
Moreover, he is the one collecting money: a huge spot base, although the contracts are at a loss, he earns daily from short funding fees and loan interest, just the interest income alone has brought in tens of millions, bleeding less each day during sideways movement. The one in a hurry is definitely not the rent collector.
The real risk is not in leverage, but in the data. Non-farm payrolls and CPI are coming soon; if the data is too hot, rate cut expectations cool down, and longs face liquidity drain; if the data is soft, then it's the shorts' time to celebrate. Betting on him cutting losses is betting on which side the data supports.
Another detail: his longs are concentrated only in BTC, ETH, and SOL, avoiding the hot MEME. MEME has an independent market with very poor liquidity; he didn't join the hype, which shows clarity.
My view: don't expect him to break first; bullish requires capital cooperation. I only watch two things: daily volume holding above the upper range, and obvious volume increase on the right side. Until both happen, he's still collecting, and I absolutely won't take over his position. TRUMP is now $1.73.
From the all-time high of 73.43, it has dropped 97.65%.
📉 But the drop isn't the main point
On January 19, 2025, the intraday high was 73.43.
Today it's 1.73.
In twenty-one months, it lost 97% of its value.
In the last 30 days, it has fallen another 14.1%.
🧮 What really matters is the supply
Circulating supply is 282 million.
Total supply is 1 billion.
About 718 million are still unreleased, accounting for 70%.
Market cap is $487 million.
Fully diluted market cap is $1.73 billion, 3.5 times the market cap.
This difference is the potential source of supply.
📊 Trading volume is shrinking
Latest single-day volume is $6.47 million.
The 30-day daily average is $12.44 million.
It has already been halved.
The amount of money involved has clearly decreased.
But the 24-hour price is still rising, and the last 90 days are also positive.
🤔 What determines its price
No cash flow, no dividends.
Unlike stocks, you can't use earnings to value it.
Price is determined solely by the sentiment of buyers and sellers.
This structure rises fast and falls fast.
$TRUMP #Microsoft Azure grows 43%, can AI commercialization accelerate? 2:00 AM is just the beginning, 2:30 AM is when the $BTC candlestick appears. Decision at 2:00, market action at 2:30. The probability of a rate hike is about 7%, with almost no suspense about holding steady. The real pricing is in Powell's words: he needs to explain "why pause now" while keeping the option of "possible hike in December." The market pricing for a December hike has exceeded 70%. If the press conference treats the "pause" as just a comma, risk assets will be under pressure; if the subsequent path is deliberately downplayed, that would be a marginal turning point. Also consider dissenting votes: 2–3 hawkish dissents mean the pause is not solid; zero dissents means clean. Funds and chips: spot is buying, retail is holding. ETF single-day inflow is 110 million, but cumulative outflow in October is still 202 million, short-term recovery does not equal trend reversal. More uncomfortable is the contract side: long-short ratio is 2.39, at the 98th percentile, large accounts are reducing positions, retail is levering up to hold. Spot holders are transferring coins out of exchanges, Binance perpetual shorts slightly dominate—both sides are betting in completely different ways before the event. Plan: Do not bet on direction before the event. After 2:30, focus only on two things: whether price and long-short ratio rise synchronously. Synchronous surge is an unreliable rebound, do not chase; if hawkish wording pushes BTC price back to 79100–79200, and spot CVD recovers while long-short ratio declines, then consider buying. Set stop loss well, hold the boundary. #OctoberFOMCRateDecisionAmong this disclosed set of positions, the BTC short position is valued at 22,007,600 U, while the ETH and SOL long positions are only 21.48 U and 19.46 U respectively. Although all three coins have positions, from the scale perspective, the risk remains concentrated on the BTC short side. All three trades are marked as 3X full positions, and the specific differences are worth analyzing separately. BTC short: position -270.59 BTC, opening price 79,260.0 U, unrealized P&L -560,700 U, funding income +246,100 U; listed margin 7,335,900 U, liquidation price 297,122.05 U. The funding income provides some buffer but does not cover the floating loss, nor should it be confused with realized trading profits from unrealized P&L. ETH long: position 0.01 ETH, opening price 2,442.7 U, position value 21.48 U; unrealized P&L -0.75 U, funding fee -0.39 U, listed margin 7.16 U. Compared to the main BTC position, this long is insufficient to form a meaningful hedge. SOL long: position 0.19 SOL, opening price 100.75 U, position value 19.46 U; unrealized P&L +0.32 U, funding fee -0.23 U, listed margin 6.49 U. Even if the direction is temporarily profitable, its impact on the portfolio is very limited. 💡 My view. What this portfolio deserves more attention is the concentration of risk rather than the number of coins held. The small ETH and SOL long positions can be understood as trial trades, but based on position size alone, the trading cannot be determined.