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Microsoft $MSFTB. After-hours tonight (4 AM Beijing time on the 29th), the Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings report will be released. It closed yesterday at $531.33, up about 10% year-to-date, and has risen 40% since the July earnings report. The market expects revenue of 90.7 billion, EPS of 4.72, and Azure growth of 45%; the company’s own guidance is between 89.85 billion and 90.95 billion.
The dividends first fall on contracts. Copilot paid seats have exceeded 30 million, commercial remaining performance obligations are 678 billion, but the weighted average term is only 2.3 years, with only about 30% recognized in the next 12 months.
What is signed is not revenue; scheduling is. More caution should be taken with the metrics: starting fiscal 2027, data center depreciation life is extended from 15 to 25 years, some leases are changed from financing to operating, and calendar 2026 capital expenditures drop from about 190 billion to 175 billion. This quarter’s spending still exceeds 50 billion; money is still being spent, just less pain on the books.
I won’t guess the direction before the earnings. Azure growth has fallen to the lower end of the 44% range, and spending exceeds 50 billion; the AI bill will first show up on the income statement. Only when it reaches 45% and cloud gross margin stops declining will the dividends be realized. Morgan Stanley expects gross margin to still decline by 2 percentage points to 65.8% this year. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 Price is hovering below the ETF cost line, while the coins on exchanges are quietly decreasing — this divergence is more worth a look than simply breaking below 80,000.
① What has changed? BTC current price is about $80,800, below Glassnode's estimated average cost for ETF investors of about $80,200. But on October 26, the net outflow of BTC from exchanges in a single day was 14,942 BTC, a nearly five-week high. Meanwhile, the cumulative net outflow for ETFs in October is still about $202 million.
② Why is this worth attention? With weak prices and overall ETF outflows, exchanges should have seen selling pressure and inflows, but instead, there were large withdrawals. This indicates that the supply available to dump in the short term is tightening, rather than retail investors fleeing.
③ Which observation is currently more supported? It supports the view of "supply contraction before macro events, rather than panic selling." The Fear and Greed Index is 51, neutral, with no extreme sentiment. But before the price recovers above the ETF cost line, any rebound lacks momentum.
Key points to watch next: whether net outflows from exchanges continue after the Federal Reserve decision, and whether BTC can stand back in the $80,200–81,500 cost range. Are withdrawals true lock-ups, or risk-averse repositioning before the decision? The answer will come soon. Feel free to share your judgment in the comments. $BTC Hyperliquid large traders collectively turn to shorting BTC for the first time since March this year.
Position data as of October 27: tracked large accounts hold about $1.33 billion in BTC shorts and about $952 million in longs, with shorts exceeding longs by $377 million, indicating a bearish exposure outweighing bullish. Some accounts have established shorts exceeding $200 million, including one short position of about $210 million near $76,000. When $BTC returns above $80,000, these positions are already carrying unrealized losses.
But net shorts do not necessarily mean a price drop. Some shorts may be hedging longs in other markets, reflecting only specific platform account groups.
What’s really interesting is the opposite side. Estimates show that when $BTC approaches $85,000, about $3.3 billion in shorts could face liquidation. Insufficient margin will force positions to close, and short covering requires buying BTC, which creates passive buying pressure that pushes prices higher. On one side, whales turn short; on the other, shorts are overcrowded. Once the price strengthens, the rebound could be amplified.
Another variable is the Federal Reserve. From October 27 to 28, the rate decision is expected to keep rates at 3.75% to 4.00%. More importantly, the statement’s interpretation of inflation and whether there will be further hikes by year-end. Rate expectations influence $BTC through dollar liquidity and risk appetite. Next, watch if it can hold key ranges and whether $ETH strengthens in sync. Whale shorting is a position signal, not the final answer on market direction.After Bitcoin stood above 80800, small consecutive candlesticks have been consolidating narrowly between 80800-81300, while Ethereum is stuck around 2350, with neither bulls nor bears gaining momentum. It's not that there is no opportunity; the low-volume sideways movement essentially means waiting for news.
First, the lock-in effect before the FOMC is obvious; institutions won't bet on a one-sided move at a point where the result is known but the wording is unknown. Option implied volatility is suppressed, and funding rates are flat, so both sides are watching. Second, the 80800 level has just shifted from resistance to support and needs time to confirm its validity. Consecutive bullish candles without volume indicate probing rather than launching. Third, ETF outflows dominated in recent days, with no new money coming in to push prices, so the market naturally moves sideways to digest. Tonight, the key focus should be on the Federal Reserve meeting $BTC $ETH Good news is everywhere, so why is MU stuck at 968 and refusing to rise? Understanding this can save you the loss of a car!
No matter how strong the fundamentals are, you have to watch out for the main players using good news to shake out weak hands!
News: Bank of America raised the target price to $1550, HBM orders are booked through next year, which sounds impressive. But in the short term, everyone is waiting for Google and Amazon earnings reports, so funds are hesitant to make bold moves.
Technical: On the 1-hour chart, the MACD red bars are shortening, and the push above 969 lacks strength. The capital flow is very clear: 1h, 2h, and 4h are all outflows, only the 8h and 1D long-term charts show inflows. Short positions are piling up above, and the main players currently have no intention to push the price up.
Strategy: Absolutely do not chase the rally!
Wait for a pullback to 950-955 with reduced volume and stabilize before lightly trying long; if it breaks below 940 with volume, immediately reverse to short down to 920.
Personal view: This is a "fake drop shakeout" before the thousand-yuan mark; shaking out floating positions is necessary to go further.
Tonight's Google earnings report will land—will it be a boost or a crash?
#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ $MU $INTC $SKHYNIX $BTC Bitfinex data shows that approximately 874,000 BTC are concentrated in the cost range of $81,000 to $82,500. This means that once the price rebounds into this area, a large number of holders close to breakeven may choose to sell and exit, creating concentrated selling pressure. The $81,300 level, after being broken, has turned from support into resistance; above $87,000 there is also a large amount of trapped positions. Investors who bought in the past two years have costs concentrated in this area, which has twice suppressed Bitcoin's rise this year, and after each selling pressure appears, the price often falls back by 25% or more.$ETH $BTC $ZEC ETH fell 13% in October, the worst in eight years. But the truth is not that Ethereum is failing; spot ETFs saw an outflow of 1.25 billion this month, while BTC ETFs attracted $500 million in a single day. This is a capital rotation, not a market retreat.
Key levels:
Support 2,300→2,220→2,180 (whale liquidation line, breaking it triggers a chain liquidation) Resistance 2,518 (200-day moving average)→$2,600 (only confirmed reversal if surpassed)
On-chain daily active users hit a new high of 836,000; whales swapped 1,601 BTC for 53,000 ETH over five days; institutions bought $1.6 billion in two days. The network is operating normally; what collapsed were leverage and sentiment.
Today's variable: Federal Reserve decision. Dovish → push to 2,500, hawkish → 2,300 faces ultimate test. Watch ETF capital flow direction closely; that is the true dividing line between bulls and bears. #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ Filecoin is pushing adjustments like Solstice to direct more block rewards toward services that bring paying customers. The Integral Spacetime approach of "acquire → migrate → put paying load on the network" aligns with the direction of "rewards follow real payments": theoretically, each completed acquisition and migration adds a batch of users who are already paying. Of course, the outcome depends on the actual acquisition progress, whether the migration goes smoothly, and if the service quality and costs after migration can hold up. The official narrative is a replicable business cycle; the results still depend on execution.Before yesterday's market open, $xSKHY was up +5.2%, and on earnings day it didn’t pull back; instead, it rose to +8.1% — the self-monitoring signal I wrote about yesterday was fulfilled today.
SK Hynix Q3 earnings were revealed today, and the second hottest topic on OKX has become "Q3 revenue surpasses 100 trillion KRW" (FnGuide consensus 98.2 trillion, RBC yesterday expected a slight beat). The market responded accordingly: XSOXL +16.3%, volume 9.04M U (yesterday 5.99M U), XNVDA +1.9%; but XMETA still down -1%. Money is targeting semiconductors/storage, not a broad rally, and BTC remains around 81,000.
Some might say: the tokenized stock volume is too small (XSKHY volume only 2.7M U), so it doesn’t mean much. My view: the volume is small, but the same direction for two consecutive days, hitting the earnings node to fulfill the signal, and XMETA’s green dip precisely proves this is targeted, not a general rise.
Next, watch two things: if XSKHY falls back below yesterday’s +5.2% = earnings rally is a one-day event; if XSOXL volume holds above 5M U = semiconductor sector is still alive.
The above is my personal market observation, data as of 16:20 today, not investment advice; crypto assets are highly volatile, please judge independently and bear your own risk (DYOR).
In this earnings season these two weeks, are you allocating your bullets to tokenized stocks or holding onto coins? #欧意星球 #CryptoMarket #AI #SemiconductorsToday's news from Reuters about Changxin Storage is quite interesting🤔
According to insiders, Changxin plans to start small-scale production of HBM3E within the next two months, even though the current yield rate may only be 20%–30%
In comparison, the report estimates that Hynix $SKHYNIX has a yield rate of about 70% for similar products, so why continue to push forward with such a low yield?
Because domestic AI chips want to expand capacity, HBM is an unavoidable hurdle, and export controls restrict access to advanced memory
Low yield means higher production costs, and the report also states that the product's performance lags behind the international leading level
I think this issue quite reflects the current situation of the domestic AI industry chain: even if the short-term economics are not ideal, it is necessary to first establish one's own supply capability
But the real test is still ahead; making samples is only the first step. Whether the yield can be continuously improved and stable delivery achieved will determine if this technical route ultimately has commercial competitiveness🧐
#SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 $SOXL How to interpret this semiconductor wave of adding positions and bottom-fishing? Is it forming a bottom? The bottom has been around the 105 level all along! Those who are attentive can calculate how many points it has stretched; it has now reached a new high at 105, and there is still room above. Those seeking stability can already take profits.
Most of the storage sector earnings reports are out, except for Samsung and SanDisk. Expectations remain, but the issue that cannot be ignored is tonight's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. There's no need to look at the data; the high probability is no change. The key is the speech by that old man, Powell. If he continues to strengthen the rate hike expectations, then the US tech stocks will still face downward pressure, which means sector linkage effects, and overall decline will cause SOXL to fall further.
Therefore, at the 105 level, Sister Mu suggests taking profits on half the position, leaving half to bet on the 108-110 range, ensuring the main profits are secured, so there won't be much problem. The trapped positions above have their last chance to be freed; those around 140 should be forgotten for now, at least in the short term it won't reach that level. Finding a position to reduce holdings to preserve capital is more important.
Sister Mu will continue to closely watch tonight's interest rate meeting developments and try to update in a timely manner. #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 After $BTC broke below 80,000, a bunch of people are still hoping MicroStrategy will issue bonds to bail it out.
Looking at the data, they didn’t buy a single Bitcoin last week; instead, they turned around and spent 200 million dollars to buy back their own preferred shares.
No matter how loudly they shout, the ledger is actually very honest—they take care of their own balance sheet first.
Their holding cost is around 75,000, so this small floating profit can’t withstand a crash.
The biggest buyer is already starting to pull back their defenses, so who else is left to prop it up?
#BTC
$BTC
👇The decline in oil prices alongside the simultaneous strengthening of risk assets is the most noteworthy divergence signal in this market cycle. $BTC has reclaimed the 80,000 level, U.S. stocks have jumped in sync, and the market has directly translated the "cooling of oil prices" into a resurgence of risk appetite. The problem is, most people only see the price without recognizing the underlying transmission chain. First, consider the most direct tension: a drop in oil prices should suppress inflation expectations, which in turn affects the interest rate trajectory, and interest rates are among the most sensitive variables for crypto asset valuations. Tonight's interest rate announcement is the first verification window. $BTC is currently stuck above 80,000, with short-term resistance at 82,000 and support at 78,000; the directional choice will most likely be triggered by the interest rate outcome. This is not a prediction but a structural fact: the price is trapped between two clear levels, awaiting a catalyst. What is truly underestimated is the long-term anchor. The logic presented in the material is very clear—if oil prices return to 20, $BTC reaching 150,000 is not impossible; and the baseline scenario for the long term is 100,000. The key to this reasoning is not the numbers themselves but that it treats oil prices as a proxy variable for macro liquidity. When energy costs continue to decline and inflation expectations ease, the tolerance for high-beta assets rises. $BTC, as the large-cap asset most sensitive to liquidity, is naturally the first beneficiary of this chain. $ETH and $SOL will follow after risk appetite is confirmed, but their pace usually lags behind $BTC. On the other hand, the situation for small-cap coins is completely differentFederal Reserve October Rate Decision Preview: Hidden Struggles Beneath the Calm
The Federal Reserve meeting takes place overnight, with the market basically certain that interest rates will remain unchanged. The focus is on policy wording and the press conference.
Having just raised rates in September, the policy effects need time to transmit, combined with passive tightening caused by rising US Treasury yields, making a rate hike this month very unlikely.
Key focus is on the post-meeting press conference: inflation statements, December policy guidance, and economic outlook—these three points will determine market direction.
Do not simply apply the fixed logic of "rates unchanged means market rises."
Base scenario: rates unchanged + hawkish remarks, market rallies first then falls; dovish wording will trigger a rebound; an unexpected rate hike would be a black swan event with extremely low probability.
Volatility in the crypto market will significantly increase, with easy spikes and shakeouts. It is not recommended to bet on direction in advance; wait for the meeting tone to settle, refer to the US Dollar Index and US Treasury trends, then trade accordingly.
$BTC $ETH #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ $BTC spot ETF inflows reached $286 million in two days, with net outflows in October narrowing to $26 million, indicating sentiment is warming up.
However, the price rose 1.57% in 24 hours, while open interest dropped 3.1%, suggesting shorts are covering positions rather than new longs entering. This kind of rally tends to pause after the initial surge.
I'm watching $81,051. The $81,051 level has been tested 11 times, held 6 times, broken 3 times, and had no reaction twice. In the short term, I won't chase the highs; I'll wait for the price to pull back near this level to observe the reaction.
Do you think this wave is just short covering that will fall back after the surge, or can it continue upward? #BTCETFFlowSwings The market bounced a bit, and I stared at the ETF table for a long time. Where exactly is the money hiding? BTC net inflow is $131.2 million, ETH net outflow is $97.53 million, SOL net outflow is $9.77 million. The same table, three different expressions. This is not a full institutional buyback; it looks more like funds are picking a relatively safe landing spot, temporarily treating BTC as a safe haven.✨ What I really care about is that the pricing path has changed. Previously, a slightly bullish ETF data could lift ETH and SOL together, with altcoins following along. This time, it didn’t. BTC got buying pressure, but the selling pressure around 80,000 still exists, and the single-day inflow didn’t even cover the redemption gap from the previous day. This can only be considered passive absorption during consolidation, not an active attack.💫 ETH’s problem is more direct: there is no new capital relay, its rebound looks more like it’s being dragged by BTC. Once BTC turns back, ETH’s support will be tested first because what it lacks is its own buying narrative, not price level. SOL is too volatile; in this kind of defensively biased window, rebounds are easily seen as opportunities to reduce positions rather than reasons to add. Adding this week’s FOMC, the external liquidity tap hasn’t loosened, so risk appetite is hard to lift overall. My understanding is: the market is not trading on easing expectations now, but on who can be chosen by funds first in a tight environment. There is also a bullish path—BTC holds support and absorption, ETF continuous net inflows, expectations repair after FOMC, sentiment can ease a bit; but the bearish risk is not fully priced in: if ETH and SOL’s capital outflows continue, BTC’s buying$ZEC has repeatedly failed to break above $1,225, with every attempt facing strong selling pressure. Meanwhile, a major whale reportedly holds $187 million in short positions, potentially benefiting from the ongoing decline. Even with the price falling to $1,182, the funding rate remains positive. This suggests long positions are still dominant, with bullish traders potentially paying funding fees to short sellers. If resistance continues to hold, another downside move could trigger liquidationsSOL generates over 60,000 new coins every day. The current inflation rate is 3.59%, with a total supply of 636.4 million coins. About 22.85 million new coins are issued annually, which breaks down to 62,600 coins per day. At $100 each, that's roughly $6.3 million daily.
Almost all of these new coins go to those who stake. 437 million SOL are staked, accounting for 68.7% of the total supply. Dividing the inflation rate by the staking rate, the gross yield is about 5.2%. After deducting the common 5% validator commission, the net yield is around 4.96%. A year ago at the same time, the gross yield was about 1.6 percentage points higher.
This yield basically comes from newly issued coins. Holders who do not stake experience dilution, while stakers receive new coins that compensate for this dilution. After accounting for inflation, the actual yield is only about 1.3%. For liquid staking tokens like JitoSOL, the annualized yield on October 25 was about 4.8%, just slightly above the inflation rate.
Inflation is not fixed; under current rules, it decreases by 15% annually, with a floor of 1.5%. The SIMD-550 proposal submitted by Helius aims to double the reduction rate to 30%, bringing the floor forward to 2029. As of October 25, the on-chain parameter was still the old 15%. If SIMD-550 passes, calculations show the nominal yield would drop to 4.34% in the first year and 2.25% in the third year. $SOL Unbelievable! Bought Ethereum for $62,000, sold it over the years for $273.6 million, and today finally cleared out the last 7,594 coins 😂
Back in 2014 when Ethereum did its ICO, an address spent about $62,000 to subscribe to 200,000 $ETH at $0.31 each. Later, the Ethereum Foundation transferred another 42,654 coins to this address when ETH was only $13.82.
Over the years, this address has been selling off gradually, with an average selling price of about $1,368. The last 7,594 coins sat untouched for over a year, but were transferred to an exchange in one go early this morning, worth about $17.79 million, clearing the ETH balance in the address.
Turning $62,000 into $273.6 million, a 4,400+ times return—this kind of performance is enough to brag about for a lifetime. But looking back, the average selling price was still less than 60% of the current ~$2,340 price. If they had held on, the account value could have been even higher.
On the same day, there was a reverse scenario. Another address just withdrew 4,000 ETH from OKEx, collateralized it into a lending protocol, borrowed 6 million USDT, and added to their position, with a long average price of $2,503, currently facing an unrealized loss of about $2.47 million. Old money cashing out after thousands of times gains, new money borrowing to push in.
It took 12 years to sell it all; if it were me, I probably would have run away after a 10x gain.
For beginners, the advice is to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTCI was too busy at work during the day to look closely, but at night I just opened the market page and came across this, and my drowsiness eased a bit 🌙. Headlines about nearly a 30% shrinkage in a week are the easiest to make my fingers stop and my mind jump to the worst-case scenario.
According to DefiLlama data, the DeFi protocol Symbiotic, mainly on Ethereum, categorized as Collateral Markets, currently has about $322 million locked, down about 29.6% in a week, but a 1.6% increase in one day. With these two directions together, I actually feel we shouldn't rush to label it as "capital flight."
My judgment is: this is a risk signal that needs to be checked, not yet evidence that the protocol has problems. TVL measured in USD can be lowered by a drop in collateral asset prices; if you don't separate price impact from actual deposits and withdrawals, and count the entire decline as withdrawals, it's easy to misinterpret.
A single-day rebound can't erase a week's decline. If the rebound mainly comes from coin price, then the pressure on capital might not be relieved; if there is indeed net outflow, I would be more concerned about whether it continues. For someone like me who catches up on information at night, what I should look at next is the asset composition and deposit/withdrawal changes, not staring at the percentages in the headline that only make me more awake.
A reminder to myself: the more glaring the numbers, the more you need to first understand what they are measuring; don't trade your sleepiness for a hasty conclusion. A brokerage firm's Q3 report revealed a structural reshuffle in the crypto industry.
Robinhood's Q3 revenue hit a record $1.42 billion, with earnings per share of $0.51 falling short of expectations, causing the stock to drop about 7% in after-hours trading.
The real focus isn't the EPS but the revenue composition. Trading revenue was $867 million, up 19%, with options up 31%, prediction markets at $173 million soaring over 5 times, and cryptocurrency at $120 million down 55%.
Prediction market revenue surpassed crypto for the first time. Crypto trading volume dropped 38% year-over-year to $50 billion, with its revenue share falling from 21% to 8%.
Where did the money go? On-chain. The self-built Layer 2 based on Arbitrum launched in July, confirming $26 million in revenue in the first quarter, accounting for 22% of total crypto revenue, with fees exceeding $50 million and handling $80 billion in DEX trading volume. Excluding this, crypto revenue is still declining quarter-over-quarter.
Custodial spot trading profits are squeezed due to tighter regulations and rising compliance costs; on-chain gas, routing, and market-making fees are low but volumes are booming. Exchange growth is slowing, while DEX and Layer 1 fees are expanding against the trend.
The macro environment isn't easy either, with this week's FOMC meeting combined with tech earnings reports. But $BTC is fluctuating around $81,000, with no signs of panic withdrawals in funding.
The US spot retail dividend period may be nearing its end, with growth shifting from user acquisition to on-chain settlement competition. $ETH is the on-chain settlement layer, and $ARB is the tech stack of this L2.#三星Q3獲利預增近8倍，完整財報即將揭曉
$SAMSUNG: Earned the most in history, yet the stock price is falling
10/8 Forecast operating profit 107.4 trillion KRW, year-on-year +782.5%, breaking records for the fourth consecutive quarter. However, the stock closed down 2.42% that day, with foreign investors selling for 8 consecutive trading days. In the following week, Samsung fell 17.8%, marking the worst week since 2008.
The market fears three things: whether AI investments can pay off, US interest rates, and Chinese memory manufacturers catching up.
There are also positives: Samsung prices HBM4 at over $4 per Gb, more than three times that of HBM3E. SK Hynix has postponed some HBM4 backend equipment orders to next year; Hynix says investments are proceeding as planned, with differing explanations. Today’s focus is on the memory and HBM segment details, not the total figures.
The exhaustion of positives is more important than the positives themselves! Federal Reserve October Rate Decision Preview: Hidden Games Beneath the Calm
The Federal Reserve meeting at midnight is expected by the market to keep rates unchanged, with the focus on policy wording and the press conference.
Having just raised rates in September, the policy effects need time to transmit, combined with passive tightening from rising US Treasury yields, the likelihood of a rate hike this month is very low.
Key focus is on the post-meeting press conference: inflation statements, December policy guidance, and economic outlook—these three points will determine market direction.
Do not simply apply the fixed logic of "rates unchanged means market rise."
Base scenario: rates unchanged + hawkish remarks, market will rally first then fall; dovish wording will trigger a rebound; an unexpected rate hike would be a black swan event with extremely low probability.
Volatility in the crypto market will significantly increase, prone to spikes and shakeouts. It is not recommended to bet on direction in advance; wait for the meeting tone to settle, refer to the US dollar index and Treasury yield trends, then trade accordingly.
$BTC #微軟Azure成長43%，AI商業化能否提速？
$MSFT: The company best at beating guidance
Last quarter Azure grew 43%, this quarter's guidance is 44–45%, Azure has outperformed guidance every quarter this year. Revenue consensus is about $90.6 billion, EPS about $4.71. The risk lies on the supply side. This quarter's capex guidance exceeds $50 billion, the bottleneck is computing power, not demand. In October, they just exited a 50MW data center project in Essex, UK, because the power grid won't be available until the 2030s. Electricity is becoming the ceiling for AI.
Also OpenAI: Last fiscal year Microsoft received about $24 billion from OpenAI-related contracts, accounting for about 7% of revenue. Copilot paid seats are about 30 million.
Those who leave room for themselves most often exceed expectations!$ZIL
The CEO of Zilliqa has resigned. Alexander Zahnd voluntarily stepped down, and the official statement is that the investigation into the security incident is still ongoing, so the CEO is leaving first.
If this news came from another company, the coin price would definitely have shaken a bit. ZIL is currently priced at 0.00202, up 3% in the last 24 hours, with the low of 0.001938 just this morning, and it has been rising steadily since.
Either the negative news has already been priced in, as the market had already reacted to the previous security incident; or there really isn’t much real money trading this coin now, so the price movements are detached from the news. I lean towards the former. But if it’s the latter, that’s even more disheartening—coins without liquidity, trading based on news is purely for entertainment.
I only watch and don’t touch coins under investigation periods; I wait for the investigation results to clarify the full story before considering whether to enter.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 #谷歌雲端業務成長82%，AI投入回報如何？
$GOOG: Cloud is sprinting, cash is bleeding
Last quarter, Google Cloud revenue grew +82% to $24.8 billion, with a backlog of $514 billion, and this quarter's consensus is about $29.6 billion. The cloud is really strong.
The problem is on the other side: last quarter's capital expenditure was $44.9 billion, more than operating cash flow of $39.1 billion, free cash flow was -$5.9 billion, the first negative since going public in 2004. The full-year capex guidance has already been raised to $195–205 billion.
Search is also under scrutiny: Meta's Muse AI assistant already has 10 million users, mostly for shopping. Bank of America analysts say search usage growth has become a focus again.
This quarter's EPS consensus is about $3.02, IG's analysis directly says it's close to a coin toss. What would make me admit I'm wrong: cloud revenue clearly exceeding $29.6 billion, EPS crossing the line, capex guidance not increasing further. If all three happen, I admit defeat.
Good revenue doesn't equal good profit! $ETH
2252 ETH were transferred into OKX yesterday afternoon, which amounts to over 5.3 million USD at today's price. This wallet has been selling continuously for nearly half a month, offloading a total of 12.41 million. At the same time, the Ethereum spot ETFs are also looking bleak, with a net outflow of 60.22 million overall yesterday, and only BlackRock's ETHA seeing outflows while the others remained inactive.
Selling pressure came from both ends, yet ETH closed today up from around 2300 to 2365, gaining 2% over 24 hours.
I tend to think this is short covering rather than new buying. The funding rate is only 0.009%, and the contract open interest of 1.54 billion USD shows no obvious increase in positions, so this rally feels a bit hollow. On the same day, BTC spot ETFs had a net inflow of 176 million, clearly showing institutional money moving towards BTC, while ETH is seeing withdrawals.
I won't chase at this level. If you really want to be bullish, wait until it firmly holds above 2370.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Platform coins have been hit the hardest in this round, but there is a counterattack signal worth watching inside: BNB, $HYPE, $OKB
1. $BNB attracted a wave of retail investors due to the Nasdaq bell-ringing event. It also has a TGE tomorrow, likely triggering another buying wave.
Moreover, its technicals look good. The RSI is 51.2, the only one in the pool standing above the midline, and the MA7 (740.5) has crossed above the MA20 (736.9), forming a short-term golden cross. Now it only needs to break through the MA30 (749.7); once it closes above 750, it opens up space to 780.
2. HYPE is currently a strong coin pulling back, with the 76 support level being tested for the fourth consecutive week. But Hyperliquid’s perp position in the market remains unshaken, so the downward momentum is clearly weakening.
HYPE also rebounded to a key position today, standing above MA7 (78.3) and now challenging MA20 (80.5). RSI is neutral at 49.3, with MA30 at 83.6 pressing from above. At 31.9% of the 30-day range, if it closes firmly above 80.5 today, look for 88.
3. OKB was dragged down in this wave but could potentially counterattack. Okx just secured strategic investments from Circle, Ripple, and SC Ventures of Standard Chartered. Shorts have nearly maxed out their positions; if the FOMC signals dovishness, short covering could directly push this coin up.
Currently, RSI is weak at 37.5, with MA7 (110.5)/MA20 (116.7)/MA30 (119.2) in a bearish alignment all pressing down. The 30-day range is 105.9-143.94, with the current position only at 11.4%. Its 24h trading volume is only about $600,000, so a single large order can cause a 1% price swing, meaning price discovery is basically distorted.Bought spot for a day, why is BTC still stuck around 81000? Yesterday's net buying was quite obvious, but futures are quiet instead. It looks like someone is slowly accumulating coins, not rushing to push the price up with contracts, but those waiting for the market are running out of patience.
I'm leaning towards going long now, but I don't want to chase directly at 80948. The cheap range from 79505 to 81298 has already passed. The 15-minute 20 moving average is at 80961, the price is sticking to it, and the MACD is turning down, so it looks more like digesting the previous gains. The spot buying makes me reluctant to short, but I'm not sure if it will drop a few hundred points after buying. Damn, I'm just afraid that relying on net buying data as confidence, it might drop right after buying.
I'll watch the 80700–80800 range a bit longer, don't rush to sell if it drops, try to hold sideways and then test some longs. If it really keeps dropping there, I might not dare to catch it either, no need to talk myself up so bravely in advance. Keep the position small, admit a mistake below 80500, if it falls further there, this drop will be deeper than I want to take. As for above, I already want to take some profits near 81200, and 81300 just got touched then retreated, I’m not willing to put all profits on a breakout for now.
The US trading session hasn't started yet, whether spot buying can continue will be clearer later. Futures being quiet might just mean everyone is still waiting, can't assume it will take off immediately. Today, don't plan too far ahead for this rebound, I want to see if those who bought coins yesterday are still willing to catch on after it pulls back.🔒 Today, GMX locked stakers for half a year.
The proposal takes effect today: Solana revenue, after deducting GT buybacks, is fully used to buy GMX into the reward pool; the coin price touched $9 on the same day.
Locking positions is not bearish; it just pushes selling pressure further out.
I think this is not following the trend but a repricing after the tokenomics rewrite. Watch it reach back to the October highs.
If it falls below 8.3, consider this wave just an excuse.
With buybacks and locking, which side are you on?
$GMX From $BTC to altcoins, the crypto market is ushering in a "stock-coin linkage" Davis double play!
One of the most notable wealth effects in the current crypto space is that more and more crypto projects are deeply binding with publicly listed US companies.
These "shells" of traditional capital markets are playing an extremely sophisticated "capital flywheel game" by hoarding tokens as core strategic reserves.
Enterprise valuations rise with coin prices, then continue to buy coins through bond issuance or additional financing, forming a positive spiral—this market cap management tactic was validated in the last cycle and proved highly effective.
Looking at the current ecosystem landscape, almost every mainstream asset has found its own "listed treasury vehicle":
· Betting on BTC with MicroStrategy
· $ETH backed by BitMine
· SOL supported by Forward Industries
Additionally, Hyperliquid Strategies holds HYPE; Evernorth owns XRP; Cypherpunk targets $ZEC.
Today, whether it’s BTC, ETH, or major altcoins, each has a corresponding publicly listed US company as a liquidity base.
From the perspective of secondary market competition, choosing these core coins backed by US-listed treasury endorsements clearly offers higher safety margins and certainty.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #Laporan keuangan SK Hynix Q3 segera dirilis, bisakah HBM4 meningkatkan keuntungan? Who is secretly buying BTC? Yesterday, the net spot buying was quite obvious, but the contracts didn't really follow, and today the price is just sideways acting like nothing's wrong. This kind of market is the most tempting—afraid of missing a sudden surge, yet also afraid that if you just got in, you might be taking over the position from those who bought yesterday.
I have a bit more expectation for the rebound ahead. The spot buying pressure is strong; at least someone is genuinely absorbing coins, but just based on this, we can't be sure if it's all whales hoarding. BTC is currently at 80948, just pulled from 79505 up to 81298, already moved a bit, so we can't just look at the buying data and assume it's still a low position.
The 15-minute 20 moving average is at 80961, the price is grinding close to it, and the MACD is turning down. I’d rather wait for the 80700–80800 range; if it pulls back and holds there, then consider buying a bit. Damn, I say I’ll wait, but if it really drops back, I might start worrying if it’s going to crash back to 80k, so my position has to stay small. If it drops below 80500 again, I’ll leave—I don’t want to hold a short-term long position stubbornly waiting for spot buying to save it.
Above 81200–81300, I’d be a bit reluctant to keep holding; I just pulled back after touching it earlier. If it really goes past that, I’d feel more comfortable selling some first. A direct breakout would hurt, but it’s better than watching profits slip away. The US trading session hasn’t started yet; just because it’s quiet now doesn’t mean it will stay quiet or definitely go up. I’m watching for a pullback first—don’t want to spend the whole afternoon sideways without profit, then get itchy before the open and chase in, only to get stopped out on the first spike.Moody's today assigned RLUSD an A2 long-term rating and a P-1 short-term rating. Jack McDonald, head of Ripple stablecoins, explained simultaneously that this is the highest short-term tier under their new stablecoin framework and also RLUSD's first Moody's investment-grade rating. The issuer is Standard Custody & Trust Company. At this moment, CoinGecko spot XRP is about $1.33 (snapshot around 16:07 Beijing time).
What truly matters is not just having another rating, but that there is finally an external rating anchor on the institutional compliance list. Many asset managers and bank treasuries' investment policies first look at the rating threshold before discussing whether they can engage. The opposing view will remind: ratings are credit opinions, not guarantees, nor do they mean that countries have already issued licenses.
From the rating release until the end of November, first watch whether the full report and reserve disclosures are publicly updated. If the rating quickly goes into review or downgrade, or reserve transparency does not improve, treat this as a PR milestone rather than widespread institutional adoption.
$XRP
#RLUSD #stablecoinIn the short term, who is more likely to rise? I lean towards meme coins; just explaining the cost difference is quite significant. When a local dog posts a picture and the meme hits, it keeps spreading in the group. Technical narratives often get stuck at "let me finish explaining first," but before the money is paid, people have already left. However, I don't think technical projects are that unfair either; some documents you read for a long time and still don't know what they have to do with the token. The team’s tech is pretty strong, so what? Is this coin just there to serve as a payment QR code?Waiting for signals, no rushing ahead
$BTC is around 81,300, with the 80,000 level having been contested for a week. On the order book, buy orders are dense below, sell orders press down above, and the price is stuck in the middle, grinding back and forth. The chain is not quiet either: two wallets dormant for three years transferred out $200 million, while new wallets are withdrawing from custodians. Both bulls and bears are waiting for Walsh's statement early Thursday morning; at this time, it's about lighter positions, not accurate judgment; don't rush to bottom-fish, nor chase.
$SOL is reported at 104.6, holding near 100, but on-chain volume hasn't picked up. After falling back from 105, it has been sideways for a week. New consensus implementation does not equal active trading. As long as 100 is not broken, it remains in consolidation. For real strength, on-chain activity must return; during meme hype, elasticity is high, but when the market is weak, it struggles to stand alone, so early positioning is not very meaningful.
$WLD is at 0.486, and World App user growth has yet to be reflected in the coin price. Bioinformatics privacy and regulatory attitudes remain unresolved risks, with volatility greater than mainstream coins, so positions should not be heavy. Wait for clear news on the next region opening registration before reassessing.
This article is for market observation only and does not constitute investment advice.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 Google Cloud's business growth of 82% has made AI returns the focus, and the semiconductor leveraged product SOXL is a direct reflection of this expectation. However, my judgment is straightforward: the news alone does not support chasing the highs, discipline takes precedence over emotion. A 16.7% surge in 24 hours pushed the price up to 105, close to the daily high of 105.5, while the 4-hour structure remains downward, having retraced 26.17% from the high. The short-term rise is just a corrective rebound. The top ten levels of the order book show 3,812 buy orders versus 9,890 sell orders, a buy-sell ratio of 0.39, with sellers clearly dominant; funding rate is 0.0000%, open interest is 533,000, sentiment is neutral to cautious, and no one is willing to pay a premium to chase the rise. Strategically, do not chase the current price; wait for a pullback to 99.35 to lightly test long positions, stop loss at 96.85, target 104.75; if it surges to 106.45 and encounters resistance then falls back, consider shorting with stop loss at 108.15 and target 100.25. Single trade risk should not exceed 1.5% of total capital, leverage positions to be halved when executing.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SOXL#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
$SOXL 7% of the supply is allocated for the first quarter airdrop. My first reaction: with this intensity, the sentiment is instantly hyped! 😱 Predict.fun has released the $PREDICT economic model this time.
After calming down, I think this is a positive for attracting new users, not a guarantee for retention. Rewards can attract people, but they don't prove that everyone is willing to keep using the protocol; whether users continue after claiming is the key.
Remind myself: don't mistake the airdrop hype for real demand. I'm more interested in seeing user retention after the rewards are distributed.Yesterday at the close, there was a prompt to increase positions, but the stocks I added are down today.
Wuliangye's earnings came out, and the Q3 data was very poor, which is the reason for today's big drop. But it rallied at the close, probably because the parent company repurchased shares. They previously said they would repurchase 10 billion, and at the beginning of October, it was updated to 1.2 billion. I guess they bought more today. The exact amount is unknown, but I estimate at most 2 billion. Large and small non-tradable shareholders always increase positions late. Let's wait for the announcement later.
Just wait 2 more days until the end of the month; the pre-New Year bull market is probably coming soon. #Anthropic正式申请IPO，或创上市估值纪录 This news strengthens the AI narrative's spillover support for Tesla's valuation, but the real short-term driver is hesitation among funds to chase high prices. I judge the current situation as a divergence within a strong trend; chasing longs requires waiting for a pullback confirmation. The market contradictions are very prominent: both the four-hour and one-hour trends are rising in the same direction, the price is only -0.09% from the high, yet it repeatedly stalls around 413.18, and the top ten order book buy-sell ratio is 0.34, with 34 sell orders versus 12 buy orders, indicating obvious selling pressure; turnover is only 122,000, funding rate 0.0000%, open interest 48,000, showing the rise is driven by existing positions rather than new leverage, sentiment is cautious. Strategically, a light long position can be taken on a pullback to 407.35, with a stop loss at 402.68 and a target of 419.52; if it breaks above 413.18 directly and the buy-sell ratio rises above 1, then chase with a stop loss at 410.44. Single position size should be controlled within 20%, no heavy positions at divergence.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading.——
$TSLA#Anthropic正式申请IPO，或创上市估值纪录
#Anthropic正式申请IPO，或创上市估值纪录
$TSLA When market risk appetite improves, what can emerging public chains rely on to retain funds? The Nasdaq's rise on Monday brought a valuation tailwind to growth assets, but new public chains depend more on user growth and application retention. If active users and real transactions continue to increase, the sentiment rally has a chance to turn into fundamentals; if unlocked supply or incentive tapering outweighs demand, I would consider the strength as a phase of liquidity trading.The ETH long position in this account was opened at 2,180 and has had its stop-loss moved up three times so far, each time announced in advance in my posts. Follow me, and you can see the real cost price, position ratio, and stop-loss level every day; no boasting when right, and honest records when wrong.
A quick note on the market after 23:00. BTC stood above 81,130, up 1.6% in 24 hours, but volume did not increase accordingly; ETH was even stronger, up 2.0%, with ETH/BTC rising from 0.0287 to 0.0291. Bitmine made a single purchase of 10,452 ETH, which is a direct marginal buy; such institutional accumulation at this scale is unlikely to disappear the same day, so ETH's relative strength will likely continue for several days.
My judgment is that this round of market action is an expectation game before the FOMC, not a trend market. Therefore, no new positions will be added; only one thing will be done: move ETH's stop-loss from 2,240 up to 2,290 to lock in this part of the floating profit; BTC's position remains unchanged, with stop-loss at 78,600. Conversely, looking at QNT, which is down 4.5% in 24 hours, BTC is up but it is not, indicating funds are concentrating on mainstream assets; buying altcoins during a rebound is the easiest way to lose money.
#OKXProphet #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 $BTC Last night it briefly dropped below 80,000 to 79,700, then this morning in the Asian session it pulled back near 81,000 USD — bulls and bears are grinding back and forth along this line. The Federal Reserve's rate decision lands tonight at midnight; 90% of people are betting on no change, but the real explosive point is whether the wording will hint at another rate hike in December. Galaxy's research head stated: the bear market ended in June (when it briefly fell below 58,000), now it's an "accumulation phase," recommending buying on dips. But the capital flow doesn't lie: spot ETFs saw net outflows exceeding 770 million USD in the last two trading days, Strategy paused coin purchases and turned to buy back its own preferred shares, corporate buying has clearly cooled. Technically: only above 82,000 can we talk about bulls returning; breaking below 77,600 opens the way down to 75,000. On 10/30, about 11 billion USD in BTC options expire, with the biggest pain point at 78,000. Gold and real interest rates, this old duo, completely decoupled in 2026.
From March to July, real yields rose steadily. According to textbook logic, cash-flow-free assets should be suppressed by discount rates. Morgan Stanley, based on this relationship, estimated that gold prices should now fall below $3000; in reality, since the August peak, it has only dropped about 10%, still above $4000, about 28% higher than the model.
Supporting it are two structural buying forces: in Q2, central banks purchased gold at an annualized rate of about 1155 tons, and in Q3, gold ETFs saw a net inflow of about $31 billion, setting a historical record. Morgan Stanley thus defines this 28% as structural repricing and maintains a $5000 target price.
Two days later, Yuxuan Tang from JPMorgan Private Bank presented an opposite narrative: liquidity is thin, the Fed may raise rates again in December and early next year, the 10-year US Treasury yield still has room to rise, and gold faces downside risk.
This is a sharp signal for $BTC and $ETH. Gold is supported by central banks and ETFs, serving as an institutional hedge base; crypto has no moat, fully exposed to discount rates. Rising yields increase opportunity costs, and high-duration assets can only align through valuation compression.
Official reserves almost exclusively recognize gold, while private funds compete between gold ETFs and crypto for the same inflation-hedging basket. Central banks grab physical gold, ETFs absorb hundreds of billions, passively reducing Bitcoin's weight in the safe-haven narrative.
The key is not whether gold prices rise or fall, but how long this decoupling can last. The warning of “excessive fees” might not sound, and this detail made me pause my late-night screen scrolling. I work during the day and only have quiet time to watch the market at night; the screen is on, and I’m a bit sleepy, but seeing this actually made me more alert. Compared to the “huge amount” in the headline, I’m more concerned about the alert that should have appeared but might be missing. 🌙
The material says that two library vulnerabilities might cause Bitcoin applications that import PSBT and rely on these libraries for calculating miner fees to miscalculate the fees and miss the high-fee warning. I see this as an alert about application reliability, not a direct signal to judge coin prices.
What keeps me awake is: miscalculations aren’t the whole story; users might not even receive a reason to stop and check. My guess is, if both fee display and anomaly alerts depend on the same erroneous result, then a calm interface doesn’t mean the fees are normal. For ordinary users who can’t recalculate themselves, this gap is especially troublesome.
Calming down, I want to see if the affected scope can be clearly explained and whether the fix includes verification of abnormal fee scenarios. We can’t conclude all applications have issues based on this message alone. A note to myself: the more tired I am watching the screen, the more I shouldn’t take “no warning” as “already checked.”October FOMC: Most likely no change this time, but don't celebrate too early
Brothers, the Federal Reserve meeting is tonight (results will be out early tomorrow morning Beijing time).
Here's the conclusion first: It's very likely no rate hike in October, maintaining 3.75%-4.00%. The market has priced this expectation at over 90%, and almost all institutions and economists agree.
But don't really think the Fed is turning dovish.
This time it looks more like a "hawkish pause": taking a breather, but the stance remains tight. They just raised rates once in September, inflation hasn't come down (September CPI surged to 3.7%), employment is slowing but the economy hasn't collapsed. Waller himself doesn't like giving clear guidance, and will probably continue to emphasize "inflation is not yet under control."
So the real focus isn't whether to hike or not, but:
Whether the statement still includes phrases like "returning to 2% in a timely manner," whether any hawkish members vote against (market guesses 1-2 votes), and whether Waller's tone at the press conference is tough.
Personally, I lean towards skipping this time and hiking once more in December. This round of tightening isn't over, just slowing down. Pause ≠ end.
For the market, if confirmed as a hawkish pause, US Treasury yields and the dollar will have short-term support; $BTC $ETH and other risk assets (especially high-valuation tech stocks) shouldn't rush to go all in.
That's all for now, let's talk after tonight's results. What do you think? #10月FOMC利率决议即将公布 📋 On the day of the Federal Reserve decision:
BTC around $80,500 to $80,730 (morning low about $79,400)
ETH Tuesday around $2,305 to $2,320
ZEC Tuesday 24-hour change about +2.8%
💰 CME FedWatch shows about 90% chance of no change, about 10% chance of rate hike (reading at 05:47 UTC on October 27)
📅 October 28: Decision at 2:00 PM Eastern Time, 2:30 PM press conference by Powell's successor Warsh; October 29: BTC mining difficulty adjustment; November 5: Zcash NU7
Times and data sources vary, so this is only a rough comparison. I can't tell who will move first, and I might be wrong.
📍 Reference levels: BTC $80,000 / ETH $2,300 / ZEC $1,200
Do you think BTC will hold first after the decision is announced?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #OctFOMCDecisionThisWeek #CanBTCHold80K $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC $ETH $ZEC SpaceX's $40 billion GPU financing lease, today I want to ask a different question: The equipment will be updated, but the payment obligations last for several years. How can profitability be maintained during this period?
The disclosed arrangement shows that the lease terms for each batch of equipment are about five to five years and three months. The $40 billion refers to the expected principal payment scale, excluding interest and other fees, and the related interest rates have not yet been determined.
This makes the long-term usage value of the equipment very important.
After the new generation of GPUs is launched, the old equipment will not immediately lose its use, but what tasks it can undertake and how much customers are willing to pay will affect revenue. If the rental price for computing power drops faster than expected, the originally attractive returns will need to be reassessed.
I don't think fast hardware iteration necessarily means this financing cannot be done. Equipment serves different needs in layers, so there is room for operation. But whether the financing cycle and business cycle can align depends on actual operations.
Therefore, besides looking at delivery, I also want to see how long customer contracts cover, how the equipment utilization is, and how updates will be arranged.
Successful financing is worth celebrating, and it can indeed expand the business. But the competition, technology, and price changes over five years are the real challenges this money will face. The larger the amount, the more you cannot calculate returns based only on the first year's enthusiasm.
#SpaceX达成400亿美元GPU融资租赁协议 A cryptocurrency user lost approximately $1.58 million due to a suspected private key leak on the Ethereum and Base chains. About 682 ETH were transferred out within just two hours, of which approximately 281 ETH were moved to Tornado Cash—a privacy mixer often used to obfuscate fund flows. The on-chain monitoring platform Scam Sniffer flagged this abnormal transfer. This incident highlights once again the core vulnerability of self-custody: the private key remains the ultimate single point of failure for assets. Unlike smart contract vulnerabilities or protocol-level attacks, private key leaks can bypass code audits and multisig protections. Once the private key is exposed, the attacker gains full control over the corresponding address, and transactions are irreversible. How the attack might have occurred Although details are limited, the pattern is familiar. Attackers typically obtain private keys through phishing, malware, fake wallet apps, or accidental exposure in cloud storage and screenshots. The rapid transfer of funds—682 ETH within two hours—indicates the presence of automated sweeping bots that monitor stolen addresses and immediately empty assets once detected. The transfer of 281 ETH into Tornado Cash further complicates tracking, but blockchain analytics firms can still trace fund flows to centralized exchange deposit addresses. Industry impact This incident serves as a reminder that crypto security is not only a protocol issue but also an operational one. For retail users, the loss underscores the risks of holding large amounts in a single hot wallet. For institutions, it reinforces the adoption of multiparty computation (MPC) walletsVanEck's 1%-5% BTC range frames the experiment as portfolio construction, not a wholesale bet on crypto. Franklin Templeton's use of stock dividends to increase BTC exposure adds a different constraint: allocations may rise without fresh investor decisions. That could normalize small exposure, but volatility will still test investor tolerance.
#VanEckFranklinBTCETFs