Orbit Post Sitemap
In Binance's preliminary investigation, one detail is more unsettling than the amount of funds involved: the attacker contacted engineers through a legitimate job platform, impersonated the project leader, arranged interviews, and then requested downloading assignments containing malicious code.
The platform was genuine, and the communication process appeared like a normal recruitment, but the problem was hidden in the subsequent execution requirements.
This indicates that the security defense now faces a whole process of patiently building trust. The attacker can study the target's professional background and job role, then wait for the right opportunity to proceed to the next step.
I don't quite agree with simplifying such incidents as "an employee's carelessness" in the end. Individual actions need review, and companies also need to explain why, after the office equipment was compromised, permissions and system isolation failed to timely limit the impact.
The preliminary report still requires follow-up independent audits; specific responsibilities and the complete attack chain should await further confirmation. But this is already enough to remind the industry that recruitment, development tools, and daily collaboration are all part of asset security.
Industry collaboration can also move forward: sharing attack methods and malicious project characteristics to help other teams identify the same patterns earlier.
Chasing funds together after the fact is important, but investing in enabling the next engineer to recognize this fake interview beforehand is equally worthwhile. Users' asset security may depend on these usually overlooked operational details.
#加密行业协同守护资产安全 #Скоро Circle report, can the growth of stablecoins bring profit? A 378 percentage point revenue growth slammed onto the chessboard, resulting in a 13.47-point bearish candlestick — this has nothing to do with all the good news being exhausted; it's that the opponent had already planted a sacrificed piece in the grid you thought was foolproof ♟️👑
I've sat in the grandmaster position for so many years, and what I fear most is not the opponent making strange moves, but the structural loosening of the entire pawn chain. The scorecard at the start of this game looked very good: Q1 revenue grew more than threefold year-over-year, Q2 guidance exceeded expectations, and on November 20th, there will be an 8-for-1 stock split. But the market doesn't recognize the scorecard. Nearly a fourfold increase within the year is equivalent to a pawn having advanced from its original square all the way to the opponent's baseline, ready to promote, visible to everyone at the table; at this point, the stock split essentially converts one heavy piece into a row of light pieces, the total value of pieces remains unchanged, the board still has 64 squares, but suddenly the battlefield has many more scattered pawns, liquidity rises, and floating chips increase. True masters never cheer for a pawn that has already promoted; they only care about how many supporting skeletons remain in their pawn structure after the exchange.
What makes me frown even more is not the piece itself, but that Micron and Western Digital are being suppressed along with it. A single pawn being captured is not scary; what's scary is the entire pawn chain being pried apart. The memory chip sector over the past year has been a sharp, forward-pressing pawn structure, but now signs of stacked pawns and isolated pawns are emerging: the growth story has been fully priced in, and every upcoming earnings report must prove it deserves this valuation. Any slight loosening is a pure endgame test after a piece exchange, a contest of whose technique is more solid and who panics first over time.
Now look at the second chessboard beyond the board. The tokenized asset $xPLTR stretches the US stock market's move time into 24 hours; the traditional market close never means the opponent stops moving; when you sleep, they can still push pawns in the dark squares. Under this linkage, one bearish candlestick can be amplified overnight into a two-square time disadvantage, which is the truly valuable initiative.
The opening shows imagination, the middle game shows calculation depth, the endgame shows who still has breath left. Right now, this game has just passed the peak of piece exchanges in the middle game: the bulls hold the trump card of performance but have lost the initiative; the bears have gained substance but haven't cornered the king. The turnover after the stock split is the real checkmate move.
When everyone at the board can calculate the outcome of this game, the result is no longer in the calculation but in who is willing to endure three more rounds in the endgame. #sandiskearningsselloff $MU opened a long position at 822, and now the price is around 855, finally showing some gains on paper.
#AMD data center revenue nearly doubled, with both revenue and guidance exceeding expectations
This time, the long position is not just because of the previous big drop; I value the storage industry's own logic more.
AI servers consume not only GPUs but also a large amount of HBM, server DRAM, and enterprise-grade SSDs. Manufacturers are shifting more capacity to high-margin products, making the supply of regular DRAM and NAND even tighter. Traditional DRAM contract prices are expected to rise 10%–15% in Q4, NAND is expected to rise 15%–20%; Micron also stated that most HBM capacity for 2027 has already been contracted at higher prices.
Simply put, storage is no longer about "whether there is demand," but "who gets the capacity first."
However, I won't blindly go long just because of these stories. Recently, DRAM spot prices have leveled off, and consumer electronics demand is not as strong as AI servers, indicating internal differentiation within the sector. After MU's continuous big drop and rebound, short-term capital sentiment remains fragile; one big bullish candle does not mean the correction is completely over.
Next, let's see if 840 can hold. If it holds, the first resistance is at 875, and after breaking through, look at 900; if it falls below 840 again, I will reduce my position first, and losing 822 means this bottom-fishing logic has temporarily failed.
I am willing to believe in the long-term story of storage, but trading cannot rely solely on faith.
$SNDK $SKHYNIX A single-month spending flow of 141 million USD has poured into the on-chain settlement layer. This is not some glamorous glass curtain wall topping-off ceremony; it signals that the underground three-level load-bearing structure has finally begun to bear real loads. What truly makes me sit up straight is never the rendering on the design drawings, but the string of pressure sensor readings after the concrete is poured—year-on-year growth of seven times and month-on-month increase of 24%, which tells me that the building’s foundation is switching from a static load state to a live load state. From now on, those living in the building and those looking at the blueprints belong to two different construction sites.
The payment card pipeline essentially opens an "emergency exit stairway" for on-chain assets to daily consumption. Previously, stablecoins only circulated within the closed atrium of trading and transfers; now, by connecting to offline scenarios through traditional card networks, it’s equivalent to precisely cutting openings and reinforcing the original shear walls, transforming the closed cylindrical structure into a commercially accessible flow path. This is a fundamental change in spatial nature—if done well, it’s a business upgrade; if not, it’s a structural weak layer. With KAST and Rain card projects accounting for 93% of the spending volume, I must say with the eye of a structural reviewer: two columns bear over 90% of the building’s vertical load. This is not scaling; it’s highly concentrated stress. As the structural lead, my first reaction to this concentration is not to celebrate the topping-off but to immediately pull out the lateral stiffness verification report to check whether these two columns have sufficient ductility reserves and redundant support.
Active users, payment frequency, and retained balances—these three metrics form a complete evaluation system in my eyes for occupancy rate, elevator usage frequency, and property lease renewal rate. No matter how tall the building is, if no one enters, or if those who enter do not generate high-frequency flow, or if the flow does not leave retained funds, it remains an isolated structure, not part of the urban fabric. Growth in spending volume is just the completion of the facade; the true commercial potential depends on whether the interior finishes are continuously used.
Looking further sideways, the market linkage of US stock tokenized assets is very much like two adjacent plots sharing a continuous underground wall. Excavation on one side causes stress redistribution on the other side through the wall and soil layers. On the surface, these are two independent geological survey reports, but in reality, the foundation settlement is coupled. The maturity of on-chain consumption scenarios will change the rhythm of capital inflows and outflows in tokenized equity. This linkage is not additive but resonant, and resonance must be verified according to an overall model, not calculated separately by building.
Two construction teams handle over 90% of the building’s concrete pouring volume. This is not a model of intensive construction; it’s entrusting the entire building’s shear safety to the feel of the same pouring crews—any stoppage at either end will cause the fracture surface to split open along the most stress-concentrated seam. #solanacardspending141mThe sounding curve at 4 a.m. suddenly turns at 3,800 meters, with warm and moist air forcibly lifted by a cold pool— the total scale of on-chain tokenized stocks has reached 3.8 billion USD, breaking records for ten consecutive weeks. This is not afternoon convection; this is a large-scale weather system rewriting isobars.
Ten consecutive weeks of positive anomalies, the biggest risk is looking at a single station only. When all ensemble forecast members swing in the same direction, it indicates the signal is not noise; ten weeks of record-breaking means continuous warm advection, and the surface observation stations no longer flicker sporadically but form a network. Some treat the 3.8 billion USD as a typhoon landfall, but it is more like a tropical depression before a monsoon outbreak: the central pressure hasn't dropped to typhoon level yet, but the peripheral spiral rainbands have already swept the coast.
First, look at observation density. A compliant issuance platform on Solana simultaneously added thirteen US stock products, putting ExxonMobil, Disney, and Uber into the same observation network, pushing the total number of stations to twenty-five. Energy, consumer, and mobility sectors are all covered simultaneously, making local circulation comparable; otherwise, using temperature from a single station to claim the whole city is warming is an over-extrapolation.
Next, look at infrastructure. The NYSE and established transfer agent service providers plan to move shareholder voting and transfer agency onto the chain, which is equivalent to calibrating radar and adding BeiDou to the sounding. Without calibration, even red echoes could be ground clutter; without a closed loop of transfer and voting, tokenized stocks are just highlighted cloud clusters on a satellite map—spectacular to look at but unable to land.
Can broader product supply and stronger infrastructure attract capital and trading demand? Moisture flux determines precipitation potential; product supply is the moisture channel, infrastructure is the boundary layer structure, and capital is warm moist advection. Having all three in place only means the environment is favorable; the triggering mechanism depends on lifting conditions—market-making depth, lending rates, on-chain settlement latency. If any of these fail, convection won't develop.
The current pressure field is not clean. The inversion layer is thick, liquidity flows like a nocturnal low-level jet—arriving fiercely and leaving quickly; during traditional market closures, prices tend to form isolated convective cells, with gaps and spikes like thunderstorm gusts. The linkage of that US stock tokenized asset is more like an urban heat island: the traditional market is the regional background field, the on-chain market is the local microclimate; their superposition can create false warming and amplify declines during cold front passages.
Watch three things: whether on-chain net inflows can continue; the trading depth after new product launches; and the holder structure after transfer and voting services are implemented. After ten consecutive weeks of gains, once wind shear increases and the temperature-dew point spread narrows, the strong convection window will open. Radar echoes are already colored; whether the warning signal upgrades depends on the next sounding. #tokenizedstocksrecord#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC
Short-term sentiment is bearish, but it might trigger a "reverse signal" on the dip.
The market is currently worried that the Democrats will take control of Congress, while the Republicans have been more crypto-friendly. This fear is already priced in. However, if BTC can hold between $76,500 and $77,000, extreme pessimism might actually trigger a short squeeze rebound; if it falls below $76,000, the panic will be "confirmed." Historically, BTC has risen in the year following midterm elections, but it often dips in the weeks after voting. What are your thoughts on this?盘面突然安静下来的那一刻，往往比拉升更值得盯。 中期选举临近，BTC 先跌到 76,000 附近，这到底是恐慌，还是提前把不确定定价完了？ 我昨晚刷到这根下探时，第一反应不是追着K线跑，而是去看国会山那三张牌怎么摆。众议院有机会翻蓝，参议院还在拉扯，真正决定节奏的是两种极端：共和党守住两院，还是民主党横扫。前者给 CLARITY 这类清晰立法留了窗口，后者容易把立法冻住，监管更多靠行政令推着走。市场现在交易的其实不是谁喊得响，而是"规则能不能落地"这件事被提前计价了多少。 BTC 在这里的角色很微妙。它被当成宏观风险资产在打折，国会分裂等于把悬着的靴子先放下一只，短线可能先压后弹；可一旦民主党横扫，短期压力会再来一波，不过 ETF 那批钱更盯着实际利率，不会只因为政治标签就转身。换句话说，第一根针不等于方向，预期差才是。 ETH 和 SOL 的弹性我更在意。ETH 吃的是"监管清晰加代币化"这口饭，SOL 吃的是高吞吐加风险偏好外溢。共和党拿两院，ETH、SOL 容易弹得更凶；国会分裂，ETH 偏稳、SOL 晃；民主党横扫，SOL 的回撤弹性最大，ETH 相对抗跌。这条传导链里，山寨的The House of Representatives has changed hands, with the Republican Party losing control.
Over the next two years, Trump's legislative agenda will enter a stage of tug-of-war negotiations.
Policies that require congressional legislation to be implemented, such as tax cuts, fiscal spending adjustments, and cryptocurrency regulatory frameworks, will face significantly increased resistance and will no longer be pushed unilaterally as before.
For the trading market, the highest priority main storyline remains the government budget and debt ceiling showdown.
The Democratic Party holds the leverage in funding negotiations and can set conditions on spending plans to bargain with the White House.
When bipartisan negotiations reach a deadlock, government shutdowns and debt ceiling crises will become periodic disruptions, directly impacting U.S. Treasury bonds, the U.S. dollar, and risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
PS: A consensus previously shared within the circle is that no matter how heated the public debate is, a substantive U.S. debt default remains a very low probability event. The game is more about creating volatility rather than heading toward an ultimate black swan event.
Additionally, after the Democrats take control of the House committees, oversight tools will be fully activated.
Impeachment may not be the ultimate goal, but hearings and subpoena investigations will become routine, with ongoing scrutiny of policy implementation, cabinet officials, Trump himself, and conflicts of interest involving his family, becoming a persistent noise factor.
Of course, Trump still retains executive order authority and can implement some policies through administrative departments within the existing legal boundaries.
However, introducing new bills and solidifying policies into law is now a challenge on a completely different level. $PEPE PEPE still has that $20 million free chip hanging over its head, and the hacker has only sold a quarter of it so far.
This is quite annoying; whenever there's a rebound, they are motivated to keep cashing out. When buyers try to push the price up, they first have to absorb these zero-cost tokens.
The remaining 75% hasn't been sold yet, so every short-term rally has to face this potential selling pressure. I think it's too early to call a reversal just based on a few green bars.
#PEPE
$PEPE
👇USDC on-chain transaction volume surged 151% Circle's earnings report tonight might be more interesting than expected
Tonight Circle will announce its Q3 earnings report. I think this time, what’s worth paying attention to is not just the stock price but how profitable the stablecoin industry really is.
According to last quarter’s official data, USDC circulation reached $73.3 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase. On-chain transaction volume even hit $14.8 trillion, up 151% year-over-year. But interestingly, the company’s combined revenue and reserve income only grew 7% year-over-year to $701 million.
Why is USDC usage growing so fast, yet revenue hasn’t exploded accordingly?
The key is that Circle still heavily relies on reserve asset income and also needs to pay substantial channel revenue shares. Related costs last quarter reached $412 million.
I actually believe Circle’s real opportunity is to transform USDC from an exchange funding tool into the infrastructure for corporate payments and global settlement.
If in the future it can generate substantial income without relying on interest, then the valuation method for the stablecoin industry might be completely different.
What do you think will be Circle’s biggest growth driver going forward: USDC issuance volume or payment business?
$CRCL #Circle財報在即，穩定幣成長能否轉化為收益？ This time, the story of $BTC was interrupted by the U.S. midterm elections. Preliminary results show that the Democratic Party is likely to control both chambers of Congress, and related bets have put pressure on the market: Bitcoin briefly dropped to $75,700, stock index futures and the dollar also fell, while U.S. Treasury bonds rose.
I tend to see this scene as a risk-off reaction triggered by political uncertainty, rather than bad news unique to the crypto space. Stocks and Bitcoin both under pressure indicate that the stress is not limited to the crypto market; the rise in Treasury bonds shows a preference for safety. The dollar also weakened, reminding me not to explain the crypto price solely by the strength or weakness of the dollar.
The story is not over yet; preliminary results do not equal the final outcome. My speculation is that if election expectations continue to change, cross-market volatility may repeat. The takeaway from this news is: first understand what the market is worried about, and don’t rush to write a long-term narrative based on a single sharp drop.Seeing "seeking cooperation with the Democratic Party," my first reaction wasn't about the market trend, but how long this statement will remain valid.
When politicians talk about cooperation, it's like telling us "start dieting tomorrow"—the attitude is genuine, but execution is another matter. However, the market doesn't care; it only recognizes one thing: the worst-case scenario won't happen for now. So for assets like $BTC, hearing "no more trouble" is enough to push prices up out of respect.
Interestingly, ordinary people often feel the opposite: the news is peaceful, but their accounts show no movement. That's because these things first affect expectations, then prices follow. $ETH hasn't caught up yet, which means this wave is about sentiment, not funds.Midterm Election Vote Counting: The "Seating" Ranking Battle in a Low-Volume Market
Midterm election vote counts are gradually coming in, with the Democratic Party currently leading. At this stage of the market, the hardest part is no longer guessing the direction but how to allocate positions. Everyone understands the big picture; the real difference lies in the "seating" ranking of who is stronger or weaker.
Let's review the three brothers after reassessment:
🔸 $BTC (Anchor Stone): In the past 24 hours, it has been grinding in a low-volume range between 76387 and 78064, with a trading volume of only 10,516 coins. The fear and greed index has returned to 34. Sentiment is slowly recovering, but no one is willing to add real money yet. Currently holding 60% of the base position, the remaining bullets are waiting for the election downside to fully play out.
🔸 $ETH (Flexible Position): Relatively resilient. The ETH/BTC rate has risen to 0.0294, outperforming BTC in a single day. The core support lies in the chip structure: the staking queue is congested, the exit queue is empty, and a large amount of chips are tightly locked. It is currently the best offensive flexible position.
🔸 $ZEC (Independent Defense Line): It retraced to 1250 without losing the 1200 level, showing strong independence. The governance turmoil actually caused nearly 100,000 tokens to exit free circulation, substantially reducing supply. 1200 is its holding lifeline; it will not move decisively unless broken.
The iron rule in a low-volume environment: the strong may not surge immediately, but the weak will definitely fall first.
The seating is already arranged: BTC defends the base, ETH plays the flexible role, and ZEC holds the defense line. The rest is to control your hands and leave it to patience and time!
#CFTC首次放行美国个股永续期货 Why does the market take the phrase "accept the midterm election results" seriously? Because in recent years, the pricing of risk assets in U.S. politics has always included a layer of "tail risk premium"—not fearing who wins, but fearing the uncertainty of the outcome. When the outcome is uncertain, money can only shrink into a few certain assets; now that the parties themselves have ruled out the worst-case scenario, the premium goes down, and valuations naturally rise.
Note, what changes is not the policy but the probability distribution. This is why high beta assets like $BTC often react more strongly to the phrase "dust settles" than to specific policies.
The second layer requires a calm perspective. "Seeking cooperation with the Democratic Party" is a posture, not a commitment. For it to materialize, it depends on budget and legislation, both of which are most prone to delays. If progress stalls, the imagination space for liquidity easing is limited, and assets like $ETH, which rely more on risk appetite expansion, will see reduced elasticity.
So my judgment: in the short term, it is an emotional repair; in the medium term, fundamentals still matter. The decline in political uncertainty provides a cleaner pricing environment, not a ticket to a new bull market. The old structure of BTC leading and altcoins following will repeat, but how far it can go depends on whether funds are truly willing to move out of defensive positions.
One question remains: if "cooperation" ultimately remains just talk, will the market add the premium back, or simply ignore it—after all, over the past two years, everyone’s immunity to political noise has become quite high. 有交易者选择平仓$ETH、$SOL，唯独继续持有$BTC仓位，这一操作重点在于拥挤环境下的风险分配，并非单纯看空以太坊、SOL或者看好比特币。 以太坊（$ETH）开仓均价 2243.35，当前价格 2290.93，收益 42.41%，盈利约 + 28.21U，交易者主动锁定这笔利润。SOL（$SOL）开仓均价95.79，现价93.55，亏损接近-32.09U，因为走势走弱直接止损离场。比特币（$BTC）开仓均价 79432.1，现价 77851，在 100 倍杠杆下浮亏约 - 168.16U，目前保证金还足够支撑持仓。 这次操作的逻辑来自仓位拥挤问题，大量买家集中在同一方向，价格反向波动时清算风险很高。$ETH共识较强，所以选择兑现利润；$SOL 叠加买盘拥挤与动能疲软，直接离场；比特币（$BTC）则作为复苏方向的长线押注留下，依靠保证金扛住回撤。 值得留意的是，留下单一笔高杠杆的$BTC 仓位，其实是集中风险而非分散风险。当杠杆交易者减仓山寨、守住比特币时，会改变市场流动性，主流币种流动性收紧，其他币种订单簿变薄。另外，当初卖出$ETH、$SOL 的拥挤问题，在 $BTC 上并没Another address single-handedly pushed Hakimi up by 10%. Do you remember the last brother who did the same? Let's take a look at the data!
Data changes of the top 40 Hakimi holding addresses on 2026.11.4
alpha: inflow of 16 million tokens
gate1: outflow of 6 million tokens
Lank: inflow of 3 million tokens
New entries in top 40: 5 people total, 1 newly opened position, 4 normal increases
Dropped out of top 40: 5 people total, 4 fully exited, 1 transferred out
Top 40 increased positions: 1 person, 1 transfer in
Top 40 decreased positions: 0 people
$Hakimi Daily Key Summary:
There are 5 new addresses entering the top 40, among which 1 made a real on-chain purchase. Of the 5 who dropped out of the top 40, 4 fully exited, selling about 20 million tokens. The addresses and amounts for top 40 position increases and decreases are very small and negligible. On the exchange side, alpha saw an inflow of about 16 million tokens, gate had a slight outflow of 6 million tokens. The token price has not fluctuated much since the last statistics, only a slight drop of about 5%. The overall market has entered a slow pace, with very little on-chain changes. However, the address that newly opened a position today kept buying for 4 hours, purchasing about $150,000 in total, single-handedly pushing Hakimi up by 10%. Otherwise, Hakimi would most likely have started with 16 million by now. Seeing this brother's purchase, I vaguely remember last time a similar address also single-handedly pushed Hakimi upU.S. midterm election voting enters the pricing window for crypto regulation.
According to reports, the 2026 U.S. midterm elections have entered the voting and counting phase, with changes in the Senate seat distribution. Trump expressed approval of the Democratic Party's victories in the Senate. Several candidates supported by crypto industry PACs are running in this election, and the final results will directly impact stablecoin legislation, market structure bills, and the regulatory stance of the SEC and CFTC on digital assets.
The outlook is neutral to slightly positive but with clear divergence between bullish and bearish views: if the pro-crypto camp expands seats in both the House and Senate, the likelihood of advancing market structure legislation and stablecoin yield rules increases, representing a midterm institutional benefit. Exchanges, DeFi, and stablecoin sectors would be the most direct beneficiaries; if anti-crypto forces control key committees, related legislation will likely continue to be delayed. This is not an intraday catalyst but a pricing benchmark for the U.S. compliance path over the next year.
BTC and ETH will be sensitive to vote counting progress in the short term, with the key being to wait for the final seat distribution to settle—do not mistake mid-count changes in swing states as final signals.
Source: Cointelegraph
Are you more concerned about the advancement of stablecoin legislation or market structure bills? The Democratic Party's sweep crushed expectations and caused a sell-off, but BTC bounced back.
At 11:00, it hit 75,736 (a 7-week low), and by 13:20 it had recovered to 77,470, with a 24h change of +0.8%.
Spot ETFs have seen net outflows for three consecutive days, but the scale is shrinking: -643 million → -399 million → -116 million USD (as of 11/3 Eastern US time).
The market fears the CLARITY Act will stall, yet selling pressure is decreasing——
Is this a bottom, or a bull trap?
$BTC $BTC ETH $ETH MSTR $COIN Rising after one year does not mean it won't drop now
Since 1950, in 19 midterm elections, the U.S. stock market has risen in the year following the election.
The average increase is 15.1%, the median 14.5%.
How this number is calculated:
This is the increase over 12 months after the election, not the three months after.
For $BTC those three times, the median drop in the first three months after the election was 31%.
Common misreading:
These three times all coincided with two and a half years after the halving.
The cycle and the election overlapped, so it's unclear whose credit it is.
Rising after one year is the direction; the middle period is what holders have to endure.
Legislation is still stuck in the Senate, one vote short.
#BTC现货ETF资金流出，企业财库增持放缓
#$BTC Today's market focus isn't the indexes, but where the money is moving.
The A-share Shanghai Composite only dropped 0.82%, the STAR 50 plunged 3.81%, turnover shrank to 1.7 trillion, with over 3,300 stocks closing in the red. Electronics saw 21 billion withdrawn in one day, communications lost 9.3 billion, and computing hardware took a hit; however, power equipment bucked the trend by absorbing 3.5 billion, while low-position sectors like batteries, food & beverage, and insurance pushed upward. Money squeezed out from the most crowded tech hardware sector and moved to places no one is fighting over.
Last night, US stocks also went their separate ways. The Nasdaq rose 0.83%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 2.63%, Nvidia gained 2.29%, and SanDisk nearly 5%. But Apple fell 1.9%, Tesla dropped 1.32%, and the Dow was dragged into the red. Those buying chips and those buying Apple did not have the same trading day.
$BTC hovered around 77,000, the fear index dropped eleven points in one day to 26, ETFs saw over 800 million USD redeemed in six days, with BlackRock alone redeeming 400 million. Yet on-chain whales reversed and increased holdings to 3.03 million coins, the strongest accumulation since February. $ETH also had an address buying 37 million USD worth in five hours at an average price of 2279, and hasn't stopped yet.
Those in suits are selling, those with cold wallets are picking up; the money hasn't left, it's just changing seats. If the Democratic Party simultaneously takes control of both the House and the Senate, the legislative space for the remainder of the Trump administration will significantly narrow. To be precise, the president's constitutional powers remain unchanged, but it becomes more difficult to turn policies into laws. Major domestic bills are easily stalled. Major actions such as tax reform, immigration, energy, and healthcare all need to go through Congress. The House controls the power of the purse, and the Senate is responsible for review; if one chamber opposes, the bill is hard to advance. The president can veto bills, but if both chambers have a two-thirds majority, they can override the veto. In reality, this usually requires bipartisan consensus, which is a high threshold. The budget will become the main bargaining tool. New fiscal year appropriations, government operating funds, and foreign aid are all controlled by Congress. The Democratic Party can include funding restrictions in appropriations bills to affect the execution of related projects. Therefore, the focus will shift from "who proposes the bill" to "who gets the money and under what conditions." Executive orders will be used more. The president can still continue to use executive orders, diplomatic powers, and pardons. These methods are fast but unstable: the next president may revoke them, federal courts may also halt them, and projects that require funding still depend on congressional appropriations. Oversight and personnel appointments will also tighten. The Senate majority party controls committee schedules and has greater influence over judges, cabinet, and agency appointments. The House can also initiate investigations, hearings, and impeachment procedures, increasing the White House's time dealing with Congress. The current relatively stable judgment is: the House results are basically clear, the Senate is still counting votes; if the Democratic Party ultimately gains a single-seat advantage, the U.S. will enter a typical "divided government," and the governing focus will shift from proactive legislation to defense, Seeing this, I want to give newcomers a lesson: two people solving the same problem with the same answer does not mean the answer has been verified. When I look at multiple people going long in monitoring, what I care most about is whether the risk is truly diversified, not just that there are a few more votes in favor.
This time, two wallets used 10x leverage to go long on ZEC within a short period, totaling 369.46 coins, with a nominal value of about $434,400. 📌 Assuming the position remains unchanged, if the price moves 1% in the opposite direction, ignoring fees and other costs, the combined unrealized loss of the two positions would be about $4,344, which will not offset each other just because they belong to two different wallets.
My judgment is: this only shows the direction is consistent, it cannot be taken as double confirmation. The same coin and same direction bear the same price fluctuation; monitoring also does not tell us whether each has hedged or how long they plan to hold. The most common misconception among newcomers is treating the number of wallets as independent evidence. If these two positions were changed to one long and one short, how would the risk differ? If anything is unclear, leave a message for Old Ma.$ZEC ZEC just made a blatant move on the market.
A whale directly spent 3.8 million USD to buy spot, then immediately placed 10 million USD worth of long contracts.
This is a typical strategy of building a base with spot and adding positions with contracts.
The spot market drains liquidity to support the price, and the low leverage clearly shows no fear of a shakeout.
With the NU7 upgrade coming next week, the clustered shorts in the market are most likely ready fuel, ready to be squeezed out by this dual-line push at any time.
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇$ARB
Scaling networks have cheap transactions, so why might the token valuation still lag behind usage?
Between network usage and token value capture, there are fee distribution, governance rights, and supply changes in between. Judging ARB cannot be based solely on transaction count.
If the increase in activity mainly comes from subsidies, retention after subsidies end becomes critical; if real fees and sustained users improve in sync, usage growth is more solid. If the network is busy but no explainable token demand forms, I would remain cautious about the valuation.Midterm election voting has ended; will the US-Iran situation still develop in a positive direction? Simply looking at the current dynamics of the US-Iran situation, there is a major premise: the US midterm elections finished voting at 8 a.m. today, so the idea that Trump would promote US-Iran peace talks to boost votes can basically be dismissed! During the negotiations, the Strait of Hormuz in Iran was suspected of being attacked, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard continues to attack cargo ships—why is this? #美伊谈判未突破，油价为何单日跌逾7%？ It's very simple: whether in the US or Iran, domestically or within the military, the hardline hawks prevail. Before a final agreement is reached and before orders from the top levels of government to restrain them, the military hardliners will proactively launch attacks under the pretexts of "defensive" or "regulatory" actions. This also indicates that strong hardline pressures exist domestically in both the US and Iran. What is the attitude of the US and Iran toward the Qatar agreement draft? Iran responded first with a tough stance, stating that the negotiations are not optimistic. The core threshold remains who acts first; Iran believes the US should first meet Iran's conditions before Iran can fulfill the agreement. On the US side, according to (rumors), on November 3, Forum Express cited sources from Qatar media Al-Araby Al-Jadeed saying the US has accepted a memorandum of understanding draft submitted by Qatar, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE have also been informed; the draft involves concessions on Iran's nuclear issue and partial release of frozen assets. Currently, Iran remains tough (which may also serve its domestic political direction), and non-mainstream media are also releasing$FIL FIL's actual daily storage revenue is only 4 yuan, yet its valuation is still hanging in the tens of billions.
This mechanism is so bizarre. Miners can't directly use the tokens they mine to pay for electricity or hardware costs; the first thing they do after receiving them is to dump them on the secondary market to exchange for fiat.
The more actively the business runs, the heavier the selling pressure from dumping to realize cash.
On the market, smart money shorts have pushed their positions up to $12 million, firmly holding the bulls halfway up the mountain.
In this kind of situation where it's just bleeding without any buying support, what can cause a rebound?
#FIL
$FIL
👇今天最值得盯的不是$BTC的横盘，而是一个18%的单日暴涨背后藏着的结构性错位：玉树流通盘与长鑫存储几乎相当，短期都没有新增解禁筹码，但前者上市以来已跌去60%，做空情绪被榨到极致；后者却在AI叙事拖累下高位横盘，明年年初还压着一波解禁。这个反差，才是多空组合真正的锚点。 我的操作逻辑很直接：做多玉树，同时做空等值的长鑫存储，思路类似买特斯拉、空SpaceX——不是赌方向，而是赌两个标的的“情绪弹性”不对称。玉树的空头已经没多少下探空间，60%的跌幅把恐慌盘洗得差不多了，任何边际买盘都能撬动剧烈反弹，今天18%就是证据。长鑫那边恰恰相反，高位横盘意味着获利盘没走，解禁预期像悬顶之剑，AI板块一回调它就被动跟跌，空头逻辑反而顺畅。 关键在于资金效率。这种对冲结构可以用几倍杠杆放大，两边保证金互相对冲，占用资本远低于单边裸多。玉树反弹时多头端吃满弹性，长鑫回落时空头端再补一刀，双向贡献收益。今天玉树拉升，组合整体就是正反馈。 多数人只看到玉树涨了18%就追高，却忽略了它和长鑫之间的流通盘对等关系——这才是定价错位的根源。当两个标的筹码结构接近、情绪位置却天差地别时，价差回归的概率远高于单边Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
After amplifying orders for both tokens, slippage for both buying and selling increased significantly, with $AKE showing the highest simulated slippage at the 100,000 scale.
$AKE simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.26%/0.29%, and for 100,000 scale is 1.24%/1.19%. After amplifying orders, slippage on both entry and exit sides increased noticeably.
$AXIS simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.22%/0.22%, and for 100,000 scale is 0.98%/0.95%. This is a cost table, not a direction; simultaneous increase in cost on both buy and sell sides indicates overall shallow depth.There is a pretty important change in US regulation today 👀
CFTC has officially approved single-stock perpetual futures, and qualified US registered trading venues can now launch these products
I think this is worth discussing from Hyperliquid's perspective:
In the past, perpetual contracts were mainly active in the crypto market, and Hyperliquid further expanded this trading model to stocks and other traditional assets
Now US regulators are also starting to allow single-stock perpetual contracts into the domestic market
This indicates that perpetual contracts are gradually breaking through the boundaries of the crypto market
But for $HYPE, things are not that simple 🤨
On one hand, the product model has gained regulatory approval, and the entire market may continue to expand
On the other hand, compliant domestic US exchanges may also enter this field, making future competition even more intense
What I’m more concerned about is whether traditional financial institutions will choose to build their own trading venues or continue to use on-chain infrastructure
This might be more worth studying than short-term price fluctuations
#CFTC首次放行美国个股永续期货 I have been saying before that there is a major negative overhang in the crypto space: Trump is very likely to lose his influence in the midterm elections, and then the US will tighten policies on the crypto industry. So I am waiting for this dip to buy the dip. Today, the results of the midterm elections are gradually coming out, so let's talk about the subsequent trend of $BTC: Before discussing the trend, let me first explain what the midterm elections are about and what it means for Trump to lose influence, so it will be easier to discuss the price movements later. 1. Trump losing influence will bring panic to the crypto space This midterm election is for electing members of Congress. Since it happens in the middle of Trump's 4-year term, it is called the midterm election. This time, the seats up for election are 435 in the House of Representatives and 35 in the Senate. The House has a total of 435 members, each serving a 2-year term, so all seats are up for election this time; the Senate has 100 members, each serving a 4-year term, and 35 seats are up for election this time. In the US, there is a separation of powers: Congress (Senate + House) controls the budget, legislation, personnel approval, and oversight/impeachment; the President controls the executive and military; the courts handle the judiciary. Trump is a Republican. Before the midterm elections, the Republicans held the advantage in Congress: Senate Republicans to Democrats = 218 : 214 (plus 1 independent, 2 vacancies); House Republicans to Democrats = 53 : 45 (plus 2 independents). But in this midterm election, many people are dissatisfied with Trump (for example, the Iran war has caused living costs to riseGrinding for three days! Bulls and bears confront each other, quietly waiting for the first breakthrough ⚔️
Early market check: $BTC has returned to oscillate around 77,000, the previous momentum from 76,300 to 78,000 has already faded.
Market polarization: ETF outflows hit 643 million in a single day, a new high for June; Strategy continues to increase positions, acquiring another 811 BTC, holdings approaching 850,000 BTC, bulls and bears locked in a fierce battle.
The market is waiting for a catalyst: midterm elections or the fallout from Binance withdrawal issues. Withdrawal panic has eased, but funds remain cautious and hesitant to enter.
Indicators are nearing oversold, but that doesn’t mean an immediate rebound. Long-term chips are locked up, exchange inventories are low, those who wanted to sell have basically exited, purely grinding for direction.
This week’s lifeline is 76,000. Non-farm payrolls are key: only if data disappoints is there a chance for a rebound; if support breaks, look down to 73,000.
At this stage, control your hands, watch more and act less, don’t rush to bottom-fish, and don’t chase shorts.Based on the disclosed $2.51 million scale, the largest single liquidation of about $1.13 million accounts for approximately 45%; the total amount is marked as "at least," so the actual proportion could be even lower. What concerns me most is this concentration: a series of liquidation records looks lively, but the impact of large positions on the amount may be greater than the number of trades, so it cannot be directly interpreted as a widespread short squeeze failure.
① In the past hour, OKEx ETH USDT perpetual contracts recorded a total of 100 liquidations, with the largest single liquidation around $1.13 million. The number of liquidations does not equal the number of traders, nor does it imply similar position sizes; I would not interpret this as 100 independent players all misjudging the market direction simultaneously.
② Short positions account for 100% of the liquidation amount, with long positions approximately zero. This indicates the direction of forced exits within this window but does not reveal how much buying interest exists off-exchange, nor does it directly prove that the upward trend can continue.
③ This data only covers the past hour and comes from OKEx's public liquidation records. From another perspective, the shorter the window, the more easily a single large liquidation record can skew perception. Using this to judge a sustained trend, I think the evidence is insufficient.
My judgment is that this looks more like a signal of a localized leverage squeeze rather than proof that the trend has been confirmed. If subsequent liquidation amounts decline and the price remains strong, I will raise my evaluation of this rally. First distinguishing between forced liquidations and active demand is a reminder I give myself.#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？
八格牙路Bitcoin is often said to have patterns like: a sharp drop in September and a sharp rise in October, even National Day rallies, Christmas rallies, and Spring Festival rallies. Essentially, these are cyclical patterns that try to find a fixed rule in a changing environment. Historical data does show tendencies, but they are extremely fragile. It looks like there is "seasonality," but statistically it is not significant. The sample size is too small (only once per year), and the volatility is too large. Randomly shuffling and rearranging the month labels many times often produces the illusion of "a particular month being especially strong." Academic research on the cryptocurrency market also repeatedly points out that the monthly effects in crypto are not robust. More importantly, these patterns have started to fail in the last two years: • October 2025: -3.9% • October 2026: about -7.3% (two consecutive years of a red October, a first in recent years) • September 2026 actually rose about +6.4%, breaking the inertia of "September must be weak." When market structures change (spot ETFs, institutional funds, macro interest rate environment, leverage liquidation mechanisms), the old calendar effects naturally become distorted. Why are these "rallies" especially prone to mythologizing? 1. Survivorship bias + narrative demand Market participants naturally like simple, shareable stories. "Uptober," "Black September" are easy to remember, easy to chant, easy to tweet, so they get constantly reinforced. Truly failing years are selectively ignored. 2. Confusing correlation with causation Past Q4 strength may just be a coincidence of overlapping factors like halving cycles, liquidity easing, year-end fund reallocation, rather than "because"To pour some cold water first, I do not agree with directly translating this message as "completely bearish for crypto." According to Cointelegraph, the Democrats claim to have gained control of the U.S. Senate, which could change the advancement path of the CLARITY Act, reshape committee leadership, and subject Trump's crypto business to stricter scrutiny. Here it is a "claim," not all changes have been implemented yet. What I am bearish on is the policy fulfillment expectations, not just seeing the word Democrat and turning bearish.
I have two concerns: if the committee leadership changes, the bill's scheduling and negotiation priorities may shift, and the sentiment betting on quick regulatory clarity could be disappointed; if scrutiny focuses on Trump's crypto business, political controversies might crowd out legislative attention. But scrutiny targeting specific businesses does not mean the entire industry will face tighter regulation, which is also a common market misinterpretation.
Of course, the bulls could also be right. If there is a clear bipartisan advancement plan later and the CLARITY Act does not stall due to the power shift, I will withdraw my concerns about delays in the process. Don't rush to get excited, nor panic prematurely. What I will be watching next is the committee arrangements and substantive progress of the bill, not the partisan wins or losses in the headlines.$ETH
The ETF had a net outflow of 85.34 million yesterday, marking the seventh consecutive day.
The price didn't follow this trend. At 11 o'clock, the 1H candle dropped to 2225.01, which was the 24-hour low, with a volume of 2.62 million contracts. The next hour saw 2.57 million contracts, rising from 2248 all the way to 2285.85, closing at 2279. Two candles with the same volume, one pushing down and the other pulling back up.
Currently at 2278.5, up 1.35% in 24 hours. Open interest is 1.42 billion, slightly down from 1.43 billion earlier this morning. The fee rate is +0.0088%, longs are still paying.
My view: The seven days of ETF selling pressure was absorbed by a single bullish candle of equal volume on the contract side, but after absorption, leverage did not increase, and open interest actually decreased. This is not a reversal, only a partial digestion of selling pressure. For a real upward move, we need to see open interest rise along with price.
It hasn't increased.
#美国中期选举进入计票阶段，国会控制权将如何变化？ I never understood it—how could people still be buying when prices have dropped so much?
Then I realized clearly: the people spending money here don’t even look at K-line charts. Tether holds a Bitcoin reserve of 150,000 coins, valued at $11.5 billion, bought up in October. BitMNR is even more aggressive, accumulating 6.06 million $ETH over a year and a half, locked in at an average price of 3329, and just added 5,000 more on Kraken a few days ago.
One relies on US Treasury interest behind stablecoins, the other on mining farm cash flow—money is coming in every day, so not buying feels worse.
So when they drop, it’s called a discount; when I drop, it’s called being trapped. Same price level, two different lives.There is something quite counterintuitive: the market is falling, but the wealthiest group is increasing their positions, and doing so very calmly.
Tether's Bitcoin reserve has risen to 150,000 coins, with a market value of $11.5 billion, making large purchases in October. BitMNR bought another 5,000 $ETH on Kraken, accumulating 6.06 million coins over a year and a half, worth over $20 billion, at an average price of $3,329.
These two have one thing in common: the money used to buy coins does not come from the crypto circle. One relies on the interest spread behind stablecoins and U.S. Treasury bonds, the other on mining machines and electricity costs. Both have cash flow from their main business daily, unrelated to market ups and downs.
This explains a question many find puzzling—why, after such a long decline, the bottom is still being supported. The support is not from bottom-fishing traders, but from allocation investors.
My own feeling is that this type of buying has almost no reference value for short-term trading. They can endure a 50% drop or wait three years; their pace is completely different. But it is indeed changing one thing: the circulating supply of $BTC and $ETH is thinning, with more and more coins lying dormant in cold wallets.
With fewer coins circulating, the market will be more volatile—stronger on the way up, and more fragile on the way down. This is neither bullish nor bearish; it is a structural change.
What is worth pondering is: when the most stable buyers do not need to sell, who is deciding the price? Today the index didn't fall sharply, but the structure was severely torn apart.
The A-share Shanghai Composite Index only dropped 0.82%, but the ChiNext Index directly plunged 2.73%, and the STAR 50 was even worse, down 3.81%. Trading volume shrank to 1.7 trillion, 80.3 billion less than yesterday. The electronics sector saw a net outflow of 21 billion in one day, communications withdrew another 9.3 billion, and computing hardware was crushed to the ground. On the other hand, the new energy sector attracted 2.5 billion against the trend, the battery sector rebounded in the afternoon, Huangtai Liquor had a 4-day limit-up, AI comic producers Dasheng Culture and Longban Media had 3-day limit-ups, and physical AI company Suochen Technology also touched 20cm. Money squeezed out from the most crowded tech hardware moved to low-position themes and defensive directions.
U.S. stocks also went their separate ways last night. The Nasdaq rose 0.83%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded 2.64%, SanDisk rose over 4%, Broadcom and AMD rose over 3%, and Nvidia rose 2.26%. But Apple fell 1.97%, Tesla fell 1.32%, and the Dow was dragged into the red. Those buying chips and those buying Apple did not have the same trading day.
$BTC hovered around 77,000, with 338 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, longs accounting for 265 million, and $ETH liquidated 48 million. The fear and greed index stayed at 33, ETFs ran over 800 million USD in six days, with BlackRock alone redeeming over 200 million. But on-chain whales reversed and added 303,000 coins, the fastest increase since February. Those in suits are redeeming, those holding cold wallets are picking up coins.
Money hasn't gone far, it's just changing seats, and changing seats is when it's easiest to get hit from both sides. When I look at this kind of order, I usually divide the position size by the leverage first, then calculate how much tuition fee you have to pay if the price moves against you a bit. A large number doesn't equal strong confidence; how much room to retreat you have is the real account.
This time, two wallets used 10x leverage to go long on $ZEC within a short period, with a combined nominal position of about $434,400. Roughly calculating by leverage, the initial margin is about $43,400. If the price moves 3% against them, the unrealized loss is about $13,000, which is about 30% of this initial margin, excluding fees and not representing the overall account loss ratio.
My judgment is: the direction has some agreement, but it's not yet stable. Two wallets moving in the same direction doesn't mean there are two independent bases; leverage amplifies the cost of trial and error; the data also doesn't show stop-loss or other account positions, so it's unclear how much they can withstand. I would choose to be cautious and not chase in based on this tip. Observing whether both sides reduce positions quickly next is more useful than just watching the opening position amount.#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ Circle's profit core relies on USDC reserve interest income. Growth in stablecoin circulation does not equal simultaneous profit realization. Incremental earnings are largely shared with channel partners, and combined with interest rate cuts lowering reserve yields, this erodes the interest margin. The key points of this earnings report are the USDC circulation scale, on-chain payments, and AI intelligent agent scenario implementation. In the short term, if circulation steadily rises and channel risk control improves, performance will be resilient; however, the interest rate cut cycle, tightening regulation, and USDT competition are all suppressive factors. A mere surge in trading volume is difficult to convert into profit; it is necessary to look at retained funds and fee optimization. Overall expectations are cautious, and growth realization is challenging.The CFTC clearance gives single-stock perps a regulated route, but the same-day lawsuit shows that classification remains the central constraint. Cash settlement and no expiry may appeal to traders seeking continuous exposure; scaling will depend on whether exchanges can fit that demand into an already crowded equity-derivatives market.
#CFTCSingleStockPerps $WLD WLD is stuck tightly below the 0.59 resistance level, with no decent pullback drop at all, all swallowed up by the buying pressure underneath.
Bears are now all clustered above this position with stop losses.
This dull knife-cutting loss pattern on the chart means that as soon as some volume comes in to break through 0.59, all the compressed short orders above will instantly turn into buy orders, triggering a chain reaction of forced liquidations and a stampede rally in minutes.
#WLD
$WLD
👇ETH perpetual current price 2246.16, total smart money traders 2,639, total open interest 2.02B, nominal long-short ratio 24.05%.
There are 879 long traders holding 393.20M, average entry price 2824.27, unrealized loss about 101 million USD, profit ratio only 24.23%, deeply trapped at high levels, difficult to actively push upward in the short term.
There are 1,760 short traders holding 1.63B, average entry price 2236.75, current price slightly rising, shorts also experiencing unrealized loss, unrealized loss 6.84 million USD, profit ratio 67.67%.
Short positions are significantly larger than long positions, but with the current slight price increase, shorts are under considerable pressure; long costs are much higher than the current price, making it very difficult to break even. Both smart money longs and shorts are simultaneously in loss, with no side having a crushing advantage. Consistent with BTC market rhythm, short-term market fluctuates repeatedly, with spike washouts continuously consuming leveraged funds, and blind chasing orders are easily stopped out. It is necessary to wait for the price to effectively break through key liquidity zones before a clear trend can emerge. The most heartbreaking thing about Apple's earnings report isn't poor performance, but that it performed well and still got hammered.
Revenue was 114.5 billion, up 12% year-over-year, iPhone up 17%, all exceeding expectations. However, the next quarter's gross margin guidance is 45%–46%, down from the recently reported 47.9%. New CEO Ternus directly said that memory price increases are "unprecedented." After-hours, the stock dropped more than 4%, and on Tuesday, the main stock closed down 1.9%.
My view: demand is not the problem; the problem is cost, and no one can solve that in the short term. The perpetual is now around 331, with 322 below as yesterday's low, and 345 above as the pre-earnings report level. Until it returns to 345, I consider it still digesting.
Do you think "a good company being wrongly punished" is an opportunity, or is the memory price increase just beginning?
$AAPL $MU
#USStocks #Earnings #Apple
Personal observation, not investment adviceThis morning's drop and rebound have only one cause: oil prices.
BTC fell from 78,063 last night to 75,736 this morning, a 3.0% drop.
The lowest hour saw $135 million in trading volume, the largest in two days.
Then it pulled back to 77,420 within an hour.
It’s not just BTC that fell.
Nasdaq futures at 27,700, down 2.14%.
S&P futures −1.24%, Dow futures −0.81%.
(U.S. stock market spot hasn’t opened yet.)
Why the drop? Look at oil.
The U.S.-Iran conflict escalates, Brent at $102.97, WTI at $95.31.
Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast from 90 to 105.
At this level, inflation won’t come down.
If inflation doesn’t come down, don’t expect rate cuts; hikes might even be necessary.
So what’s being hit isn’t the economy, but valuations.
Why the rebound? Still look at oil.
On November 3, Trump told the Financial Times there’s no plan for an immediate strike on Iran.
After this statement, oil prices reversed from rising to falling.
The source of panic was oil; once oil turned, the panic disappeared.
At first glance, I thought this was uncertainty about the election, but after reviewing the timeline, I realized the main cause was the war premium.
This rebound doesn’t look like "bottom-fishing capital entering," but more like "bad news disproved by a single statement."
There’s a big difference: the former requires new buying, the latter just needs no one selling anymore.
Do you think we should focus on oil prices next, or on the election vote count?
$BTC ETH plays a role in transaction fees, staking and network security.
But there's a catch here too. More activity on Ethereum doesn't necessarily translate into proportional value accruing to ETH, especially as Layer 2 networks make transactions cheaper.
For the next decade, I'm more interested in two questions:
$BTC: How much global wealth will eventually find its way into Bitcoin?
$ETH: How much economic value generated across the Ethereum ecosystem will actually accrue to ETH?Today's market, the most striking thing isn't the drop, but the two sides slapping each other.
The A-share Shanghai Composite Index only lost 0.82%, the STAR Market Composite Index plunged 4.78%, and the electronics sector saw a net outflow of over 8 billion yuan in one day. But the power equipment sector absorbed over 6 billion yuan, food and beverage took in over 4 billion yuan, Huangtai Liquor had a 4-day winning streak, Maotai rose against the market trend, with a net inflow of over 6 billion yuan in five days. AI animation companies Dasheng Culture and Zhejiang Film Industry had a 3-day winning streak, with the highest order book at over 2 million lots; short drama users grew from 10 million to 400 million in less than three years. Semiconductor equipment is rising, but computing hardware is falling; Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communications turned green, money moved from the most crowded end to places no one is fighting for.
The US stock market was also split last night: the Nasdaq rose 0.83%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded 2.64%, SanDisk rose over 4%, Broadcom and AMD rose over 3%. But Apple fell 1.97%, Tesla fell 1.32%, and the Dow Jones closed down. Those buying chips and those buying Apple did not have the same trading day.
$BTC touched 76,500 and was pulled back again; the fear index dropped eleven points in one day, directly down to 26. ETFs ran over 800 million USD in six days, with BlackRock alone redeeming 400 million, but on-chain whales reversed and increased holdings to 3.03 million coins, the strongest accumulation since February. On the $ETH side, an address also spent 37 million USD in five hours to buy, at an average price of 2,279, and hasn't stopped.
Those in suits are cutting, those with cold wallets are picking up; the money hasn't run away, it's just musical chairs.As analyzed earlier, after the rebound to 78830, it turned down to test 74909. This move has already played out, with 75690 completing the first test. What’s next? The second test at 74909! As for whether it will break through, it's a 50-50 chance. The midterm election outcome is settled, whether the US and Iran will still fight, the non-farm payroll data on the 6th, and whether there will be a rate hike in December are all variables. So, it’s not time to get overly bullish yet; contracts around BTC 76000 can be entered with a small position.