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Breaking news: This morning I was still writing about Bitcoin holding at 81,000, then I casually opened OKX and saw the latest spot price at 80,791, with a 24-hour low of 79,505. Numbers that don’t match after just one night speak louder than any analysis.
This week it has already fallen below 80,000 twice; the last time was on the 23rd at 79,220, the lowest in five weeks. This morning it was just $300 short of that level, then bounced back to around 81,300 before someone started selling again, with the 24-hour high stopping at 81,298.
Beyond the price, a few other numbers are worth noting. Coinbase premium has been negative for over a month, hitting -0.176% this morning, the lowest in five months, with hardly any buying during the US session; Hyperliquid whales have turned net short for the first time since March, and in the previous bottom they were the most accurate at going long; Strategy’s SEC filings this week show they haven’t bought a single coin.
So my stance is: this looks more like a downward continuation than a shakeout before a takeoff. The 80,000 level is notorious for whipsawing; I made a wrong call in a similar area last week, and I admit it rather than stubbornly holding on.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC has been bought up to the bottom? #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 10/28｜Willy Woo's Weather Station ran 10,000 simulations. On 10/26, he posted 10,000 BTC simulated paths: median peak in December 2028 at 413,000; 28th-50th percentile reasonable range 241,000-413,000. The model uses a random walk trained on history from the 2018 bottom to the 2022 bottom, with diminishing returns (power-law decay 0.45), adjusted by market cycle phase. He insists "this is a simulation, not my prediction" and also shows: median pullback to 234,000 in April 2030, surge to 1,030,000 in February 2033. On 10/27, BTC was about 80,000, roughly 37% below the October 2025 high of 126,080. I'll keep this simulation for now; the truth will be revealed by the end of 2028 $CL Important things said three times
The US is not short of oil—the US is not short of oil—the US is not short of oil!
Oil = Dollar—Oil = Dollar—Oil = Dollar!
After the midterm elections, I believe oil prices will plummet, because although high oil prices can enhance the international status of the dollar, they also cause everyone to reject using the dollar.
From the perspective of international security, if Ukraine does not receive new support on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, a ceasefire is inevitable. At that time—if the US and Iran do not cease hostilities, the next conflict hotspot will shift to them. The US military is domineering, but they are not stupid; they will not fight a protracted transoceanic war thousands of miles away, as their power would only be weakened. Therefore, peace talks between the US and Iran are imperative.
The end of the midterms is a signal; the political significance represented by the midterms is huge. No one will offend voters at this time. High oil prices have already seriously affected the lives of their own citizens, so lowering oil prices has become a political task.
One last point: The US is not short of oil, so why are oil prices high?
Because the previous high oil prices were used as a tool to harvest the global economy and stabilize domestic prices, but with the midterms approaching and competition intensifying, this tool must be discarded.
Finally, wishing everyone prosperity~If I were to write it as a strategy, I would set a rule: if a listed company continuously fails to withdraw disclosed crypto assets, then increase the risk weight for asset availability 🤖. Datavault AI reported that starting from June 2026, the inability to withdraw $BTC stored in Biconomy caused its stock price to plummet nearly 50%. These BTC came from a deal where Scilex purchased its stock and warrants for $150 million.
I think this is more like a company asset quality alert and shouldn't be directly interpreted as bearish for Bitcoin. If the money can't be withdrawn, it might affect cash flow; these BTC were transferred off-chain and recorded in the wallet, so just looking at the deposit records is insufficient to verify availability. The advantage of this rule is that it captures specific anomalies, but the flaw is: inability to withdraw does not equal a loss, and the stock price drop cannot be directly treated as a loss rate.
As a quant newbie, I also need to add a condition to lift the alert, otherwise it will keep triggering. If you were to write it, would you lift it after a successful test withdrawal, or require that the entire balance can be independently verified?Ridiculous, ridiculous, a Nasdaq-listed company can't withdraw its own Bitcoin, and its stock price was halved in one day 😂 This company is called Datavault AI, stock code DVLT. In September 2025, another listed company subscribed to its stock, totaling $150 million, all paid in Bitcoin, which at the time was roughly equivalent to 1,328 coins. The coins never moved on-chain; the other party simply credited 1,309 coins to its account on a small exchange, basically just changing numbers on a ledger. By January 2026, it sold 491 of those coins back to the other party, receiving about $40.5 million in cash. The remaining approximately 817.6 coins, valued at just over $80,000 per coin now, are worth about $66 million and have been sitting in that exchange account. In June this year, the company tried to transfer the coins to an external wallet, but after submitting the request, there was no follow-up. Four months passed. Not a single coin was withdrawn. On October 26, the company announced that the past four financial reports can no longer be trusted. These Bitcoins do not meet the criteria to be counted as their own assets and must be reclassified as subscription receivables owed by the other party. Just at the end of 2025, total assets need to be cut by about $92.2 million. The next trading day, the stock price crashed, dropping about 49.55% in 24 hours, hitting a low near $0.07. A company that relies on Bitcoin for its image, with coins on the books that are visible but intangible, and finally even the financial reports become invalid. The coins are held by someone else; who really owns the numbers on the screen? You only find out when you try to withdraw. Newbies are advised to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC.📌Early Wednesday market session, 4 cryptocurrencies await Thursday's Washington press conference
$BTC 80,980
80,000 is the maximum strike price for options this cycle, with market makers placing a large number of hedge orders here. The Washington press conference early Thursday, after a rate hike in September, will most likely keep rates unchanged this time. However, with inflation still high at 3.7%, if the speech is hawkish, the 80,000 level will be tested. Avoid heavy speculation.
$ENA 0.215
High interest rate environment actually benefits these yield-bearing coins 🌾
USDe earns interest by collateralizing short-term U.S. Treasuries. If the Washington speech is hawkish and the high interest rate cycle is extended, the appeal of yield-bearing stablecoins will increase. This logic is contrary to the usual expectations of rate cuts, so do not blindly chase.
$ASTER 0.704
Multi-chain contract DEX is currently inactive 🛰️
The project rules are complete, but trading volume is only a few hundred thousand USD, with funds waiting on the FOMC outcome. Without new event catalysts, it is difficult to attract funds in the short term.
$HYPE 77.3
Protocol fee dividends await quarterly settlement 📊
Holding HYPE entitles you to on-chain transaction fee shares. On-chain trading data is strong this week, but the coin price has not risen accordingly; the market is waiting for the quarterly dividend to be implemented.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $ZEC 1225 is like an iron lid, multiple attempts to break through have been pushed back.
What's even funnier is that the short whale holds $187 million in short positions, making a fortune.
The price has dropped to 1182, yet the funding rate is still positive.
This shows that these retail investors are stubbornly holding against the trend, paying interest to the shorts every day.
The main players are dumping their holdings onto retail investors, just waiting for the next wave of liquidation to the downside.
#ZEC
$ZEC
👇In the past 24 hours, BTC hit a low of 79505 (OKX), while Binance was at 79468. The 80,000 line was truly broken once, but now it's back above 80,700.
Wintermute's reminder came just in time: after three consecutive weeks of decline, 80,000 is a key support. The support was pierced once before being bought back, which is quite ironic.
I see quite a bit of divergence. On one hand, people say the support is critical; on the other, CryptoQuant data shows the proportion of dormant coins falling to 26.59%, indicating early funds are moving; the four major Korean exchanges still have a 0.73% premium. The funding rate is 0.01%, no squeeze, OI is 2.57 billion USD, and no one is rushing to leverage up.
To take a side: this time is a probe, not a hold. If it really drops further, it depends on whether the next layer can hold; standing above 80,000 for a few more days means this three-week decline has finally eased.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $GRVT GRVT, with this chip structure, still dares to crowd into shorting, purely because they think the margin is too high.
Single-day contract positions surged nearly 13%, but the tradable circulating supply outside is pitifully small, with extremely concentrated control.
Now a bunch of shorts in derivatives are holding on hard; if the main force slightly ignites to trigger a forced liquidation, the shorts' liquidation orders will directly convert into market buy orders.
The more it rises, the more shorts get swept; once entering this chain reaction of forced liquidations and short squeezes, the shorts are passively helping the whales pump the price.
#GRVT
$GRVT
👇Regarding tokenized stocks, I stand with Ethereum.
Just saw that OKX's tokenized stock plan wants to be based on Ethereum, but it was opposed by 26 issuers. It feels frustrating, but that's the reality—everyone wants to hold the bowl of tokenized stocks themselves, and who controls the settlement rights is even harder to negotiate than the product itself.
ETH is now hovering around 2341, with a 24-hour high/low of 2357/2297, not moving at all with this news. The market never reacts instantly to such matters.
My judgment: tokenized stocks will ultimately need to circulate cross-platform, and there's no way around Ethereum's network. Opposition aside, there are only one or two chains that can serve as a universal settlement layer, and I bet on Ethereum.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $PEPE ‘s breaking out of a clean triangle while most altcoins are still underperforming BTC by a wide margin. Normally that order’s reversed BTC leads, real-utility alts follow, meme coins move last once risk appetite is fully back. When meme coins go first, it’s usually not conviction, it’s bored capital chasing the highest-beta trade in the room. Worth remembering before reading this as a market-wideThe FOMC decision lands tonight, and what BTC fears most might not be "no rate hike"
What worries me more is not the Fed holding rates steady tonight, but the Fed framing "no rate hike for now" as "high rates will persist longer." The rate decision itself has likely been priced in by the market; what can truly cause risk assets to reprice is whether the statement and press conference signal a more hawkish stance.
If the Fed continues to emphasize inflation risks and avoids giving a timeline for easing, even without a rate hike, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may strengthen first. BTC then faces not a "no rate hike" tailwind, but a recalculation of the cost of holding risk assets. Conversely, if the wording is not clearly hawkish and the market hears clues of cooling inflation or weakening employment, a pause in tightening could leave room for a rebound.
So I don’t plan to focus solely on the rate outcome. BTC’s 24-hour range is about $79,505–$81,298; if after the meeting the price rallies back near $81,300 with volume, and the dollar and yields do not continue to rise, the bearish view won’t hold. If yields strengthen and BTC falls below around $79,500, it would look more like trading on "high rates lasting longer." A single drop isn’t enough to confirm a trend reversal; price and macro reactions need to corroborate each other.
The real test this time is how the market interprets the Fed’s next steps. Before the meeting, no one should bet on a single direction; wait for the statement, press conference, and price to align before deciding whether to follow.
$BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Last night, the US stock market continued to rebound, with the Nasdaq rising 1.18% and the S&P 500 up 0.60%. The AI and semiconductor sectors regained investor attention. However, BTC did not strengthen in sync, and the market remains cautious. Why did the US stock market rise while the crypto space showed little movement? I think the key lies in interest rate expectations and institutional funds. ① Strong US economic data may not be good news for the crypto market. The October Consumer Confidence Index released last night rose to 91.7, significantly above the market expectation of 81; September durable goods orders increased by 1.8%. Economic resilience is positive but may also give the Federal Reserve more reason to maintain high interest rates. Conversely, if inflation pressure eases, a strong economy can support risk appetite. ② Oil prices fell, easing macroeconomic pressure. Brent crude oil dropped nearly $2 last night, closing at $113.88. Middle East diplomatic talks brought some easing expectations, but supply disruption risks remain. If oil prices continue to decline, it will help alleviate inflation concerns; if conflicts escalate again, the US dollar and US Treasury yields may still pressure BTC and ETH. ③ ETF funds remain differentiated. Verified data for October 26: US spot BTC ETF net inflow of $110.3 million, ETH ETF net outflow of $88.6 million. Complete data for October 27 is not yet confirmed. Single-day fund changes cannot determine the market trend, but if BTC continues to receive inflows and ETH continues outflows, their relative strength may further diverge. ④ At 2 a.m. tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. North This morning someone told me again that XRP is going to crash because Ripple will unlock 1 billion tokens on November 1st. I've heard this dozens of times a year; every time before an unlock, someone shouts it out.
The current price is 1.318, 2% higher than 24 hours ago, and it hasn't broken yesterday's low of 1.285. The market has long priced in the unlock; if they really wanted to dump, they wouldn't give a heads-up in advance.
On the other hand, Bassett said at Ripple Swell that digital asset competition can strengthen the US dollar's position. Hearing this from the Treasury Secretary is a completely different tone compared to the SEC's stance from a few years ago.
I'll watch the volume closely on the unlock day; if it really breaks below yesterday's low, I'll admit I was wrong.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 To start with a bit of cold water, I don't take this statement as a collective pass for the crypto market. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated at the Ripple Swell conference that digital assets can help consolidate the dollar's global dominance; he mentioned that over 90% of stablecoins are backed by the dollar, with issuers often holding U.S. Treasuries as reserves, and that adoption growth could drive demand for related assets. From my reading, he acknowledges the ability of digital assets to serve the dollar, not the value of all crypto assets.
I'm cautious for two reasons. First, policy goals and market imagination are not the same: emphasizing technological leadership does not equal a commitment to deregulation, so directly translating this statement into an all-around positive is missing a step. Second, expanded use of stablecoins could deepen on-chain dependence on the dollar. If new payments and settlements revolve more around the dollar, then non-dollar stablecoins might face stronger competition. This is my speculation; technology adoption and currency diversification do not necessarily move in the same direction.
Of course, I might be pouring cold water too early. Bessent believes stablecoins will open new markets rather than just replace existing dollars; if we later see real new usage and clear, actionable policy arrangements, I will raise my evaluation of this news. I will focus on actual adoption and rule implementation going forward, and will not use a single macro statement to stamp the entire market.As soon as Robinhood's earnings report came out, the stock dropped nearly 10% in one day. I'm not catching this falling knife.
Q3 revenue was $1.42 billion, up 12% year-over-year, but net profit was $476 million, down 14% year-over-year, missing Wall Street's expectations.
The drag came from crypto: crypto trading revenue dropped to only $120 million, a direct cut of 55%.
The prediction market, on the other hand, exploded, with event contract revenue at $173 million, more than six times higher.
HOOD contracts fell from 96.8 all the way down to 87.75, with the daily MA20 around 100.7 and MA50 around 109.4, all pressing down overhead.
I think the market is recalculating: the prediction market is truly growing, but it still can't cover the hole left by crypto.
If the coin price doesn't recover, this company's profits will be hard to look good.
I'll wait first.
If the daily closes back above 96.8, filling the earnings gap, then we'll talk; if it breaks below the late July low of 83.9, then I'll look further down.
Do you believe more in the prediction market supporting the valuation, or that crypto's slump will continue to drag it down?
$HOOD #RobinhoodQ3营收增长，净利润下降 💻 According to my code review: Blockaid monitoring shows that the Tranche Vault on Avalanche has been under continuous attack, with about two transactions stealing approximately $1.01 million. The attacker used flash loans to mint inflated shares, then redeemed the remaining USDC in the vault.
My judgment: The focus should be on share accounting; it’s not just the flash loan’s fault. If shares don’t correspond to real assets, redemption can turn inflated numbers into actual fund loss; since the attack is still ongoing during monitoring, it also means the loss prevention mechanism needs to be reviewed. Which specific part has a bug still requires technical disclosure.
If it were me, I would first verify whether the assets and shares before and after minting and redemption are consistent, then test if pausing is possible under abnormal conditions, rather than just blocking the flash loan entrance. Please help review: which should be prioritized for fixing, asset consistency verification or single redemption limit, and why?Ondo's official blog states: On October 27, 15 tokenized US stocks and ETFs were connected to Robinhood Chain, among which 11 entered Uniswap v4's StablePair pool along with the corresponding Robinhood Stock Tokens. They can also be bridged from Ethereum or BNB Chain via Ondo Bridge. CoinGecko spot price for ONDO is about $0.422 (snapshot around 10:03 Beijing time).
The real change happens over the weekend. When Robinhood's minting and redeeming is closed on weekends, Ondo can still mint and redeem at the current price. The corresponding tokens on both sides can be swapped within the pool, filling the liquidity gap during market closure days, not simply adding another chain. Critics will watch the pool depth and whether weekend price differences can be arbitraged away. Launching does not mean trading volume has picked up, nor does it mean the token price will rise.
Let's first observe the two weekends after launch. If StablePair remains almost inactive for a long time, this is just product groundwork; if price differences are pulled back and weekend trading continues, it means the market closure window is truly being utilized. If the pool remains unused after launch, treat this as a progress update, not a new narrative.
$ONDO
#ONDO #Tokenization After the U.S. midterm elections, things are about to heat up again!
Geopolitical risks are rising! The U.S. may take military action against Iran after the midterm elections.
According to The Wall Street Journal on October 28, the U.S. has warned several Gulf Arab countries to prepare for a brief but intense military operation after the elections. However, no final decision has been made yet, and diplomatic negotiations remain uncertain.
If the Middle East situation escalates, risks to crude oil supply could push oil prices higher, and gold may attract safe-haven funds. Bitcoin may not necessarily benefit; once the market enters a risk-off mode, capital withdrawal from risk assets could bring short-term selling pressure.
Next, focus on U.S.-Iran negotiations, crude oil trends, and BTC key support levels. News does not equal action, and expectations do not equal trends. Before the situation becomes clear, controlling leverage and avoiding chasing highs or selling lows is more important than rushing to bet on a direction. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #RobinhoodQ3营收增长，净利润下降 Within one day, the Ethereum ETF went from nearly setting a monthly outflow record to attracting $246 million in a single day.
On October 28, the US spot Ethereum ETF recorded a net inflow of $246 million, with Fidelity's FETH contributing $99.27 million and BlackRock's ETHA adding another $76.37 million. However, as of this Monday, the ETH ETF still had a cumulative net outflow of $1.26 billion for October.
$ETH is around 2,351. The price is stuck at the convergence of three lines: the on-chain average cost at 2,310, the 200-day EMA at 2,315, and the large holder cost base at 2,328, where it has found support multiple times in the past three days. 2,355 is the first resistance above; closing above it would mean truly escaping the danger zone.
$BTC is around 81,000, with an intraday high of 81,300. The ETF had a net inflow of about $119 million yesterday, but excluding the single leading product, the rest remain weak. The cumulative net outflow for ETFs in October is about $202 million. Prices are rising, but the ETF gap has not yet been filled.
$SOL is around 101. The SOL ETF had a net outflow of $19.15 million yesterday, all from one product. The $100 level is barely holding, but buying pressure has been continuously absent.
In short: The probability of no change in interest rates is over 90%, but the single-day reversal of the ETH ETF shows that money is not absent; it is just waiting for a sufficiently cheap entry point. Among the three coins, ETH has already seen the first inflow, while BTC is still waiting for the second.
#SK海力士Q3营收首破100万亿韩元 #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
US Stock Market Analysis: AI Funds Violently Replenish, But Someone Is Quietly Taking Profits
Overnight, the Nasdaq rose 1.18% to reclaim the 100-day moving average, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 3.60%. On the surface, it looks like an AI bull comeback, but breaking it down, the Goldman Sachs AI Index soared 5.08%, while the S&P components excluding AI actually fell 0.32%. The funds are concentrated in single-point explosions; all the gains are among “insiders.”
Macro news impact on various assets:
The core catalyst is Broadcom securing $63 billion financing to help Anthropic buy chips, plus Meta’s $25 billion secondary offering oversubscribed 5 times, and Oracle expanding cooperation with OpenAI.
Where is the money coming from? The market is answering with real money the question “Who is really paying for AI?” But note, oil prices have fallen below $100 for two consecutive times, gold dipped to 3989 before sharply rebounding to 4061, and the US dollar index rose 0.35%—both safe-haven and risk assets rising simultaneously, making the market situation itself quite strange.
Capital flows:
Cloud service providers and chip stocks are being aggressively bought; Nebius rose 11%, CoreWeave nearly 8%, AMD 5.45%. But Microsoft fell 0.24% after hours, showing divergence among the seven giants. Hot money is moving into second-tier AI concepts, while some big stocks are taking profits at highs.
Two massive financings forcibly extend the AI narrative, but tonight’s Federal Reserve decision and Microsoft and Google earnings reports are the ultimate tests.$PONS has warmed up for two consecutive days, with a daily trading volume of 35M, a week-on-week increase of 8.3%, significantly recovering from last week's low of 24M.
Platform fees are 354K (+14%), protocol revenue 53K (+10%), token issuance 1.5K (+7%), and number of trades 337K (+21%). The total DEX volume on Robinhood Chain dropped from 742M to 586M, but PONS has risen, increasing its market share.
150,000 tokens have been burned, totaling 32.8%. The buyback pool still has 266,000 tokens left, with 104,405 tokens held. The latest version of Robinhood Wallet now supports PONS, and the 30M level is very likely to hold steady.Thailand has launched an app called WORPT, which allows foreign tourists to convert USDT and USDC into Thai Baht, then pay by scanning local Thai PromptPay QR codes.
The developers are Waan Exchange and Wipay, with Tether as one of the partners. The project operates within the Thai SEC's TouristDigiPay regulatory sandbox.
One detail is easy to overlook. Stablecoins are not paid directly to merchants. They are first converted into Thai Baht within the app, then processed through PromptPay. Merchants receive Thai Baht, and the acquiring system has no connection to cryptocurrency.
Sandbox limits: no more than 100,000 Thai Baht per transaction, and no more than 550,000 Thai Baht per month.
The design intention is very clear. The first real use case for stablecoins found in Thailand is currency exchange for tourists. At the local payment layer, it has not yet touched $BTC $ETH $ZEC $ATOM market is still pricing ATOM with "infinite inflation," but its underlying logic has already shifted.
In August 2026, Cosmos Hub officially switched to a fee buyback and burn model, and Osmosis terminated OSMO inflation with a 91% voting rate, also canceling new ATOM minting. The supply side changed from "only increasing" to "decreasing," marking a structural turning point, not a short-term sentiment.
On the demand side, IBC v2 is linking Solana and all EVMs, while the global RWA tokenization market is expected to expand to $418.6 billion by 2026—ATOM’s role is to be the trustless settlement layer for cross-chain flow of these assets.
The price is stuck in the critical decision zone of 1.60–1.63; once it breaks above 1.85 with volume, the path to 2.20 will open. Coupled with an 18%+ staking annualized yield, the cost of waiting is gradually being offset by returns.
The suspense has never been about the price itself, but whether ATOM near 1.6 will still be waiting for you when the market finally understands the deflation + RWA play.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 刚刷到一根急拉，群里立刻有人把目标改到六位数，前脚还在等六万。你身边也有这种一秒换剧本的声音吗？ 我盯着盘面那一下，第一反应不是兴奋，是觉得吵。价格一动，叙事就跟着动，昨天还在教你等深水区的人，今天已经开始画更高的位置。表面看是情绪热闹，真正要看的却是板块强弱：谁在领涨，谁只是被带着弹一下，谁冲高后没人接。这个落差比口号重要得多。 BTC 破不破某个整数位，本身只是触发点。市场实际在交易的，是风险偏好有没有回来、杠杆敢不敢加、回调有没有人愿意接。如果只有头部资产走强，ETH 和山寨跟不上，那更像一次情绪修复，不是全面回暖。反过来，若回调时量能收得住、板块内部有接力，才说明承接是真的。 偏多的路径在于：突破后不急着追高，等回踩确认，让强势板块自己证明韧性。潜在风险是，大家把"看见上涨"误当成"趋势已定"，提前把降息、增量资金、新高预期都计价进去，结果一根回撤就把追进去的人洗出来。更隐蔽的是，价格越热闹，越容易忽略板块之间的分化，表面红一片，真实承接却很薄。 我自己的节奏是，不跟喊单比嗓门，先看强弱排序和回踩质量。热闹可以看，仓位要慢。你更在意突破那一下，还是回踩那一下？ 时间会奖励有耐心Today there are signs of capital inflow, but it is still far from confirming a reversal. BTC spot and futures both show net inflows on the 4-hour timeframe, ETH's leveraged capital replenishment is stronger, while SOL shows a divergence pattern with spot absorbing and futures continuing to withdraw.
$BTC
🔻4-hour spot net inflow of $111 million, futures net inflow of $36.18 million. Over 24 hours, spot still has a net inflow of $179 million, but futures have turned to a net outflow of $92.74 million. More importantly, the 30-day cumulative net outflow of futures has expanded to $7.83 billion. Short-term buying has returned somewhat, but the mid-term deleveraging process is not over.
$ETH
🔻4-hour spot net inflow of $51.64 million, futures net inflow as high as $221 million. Over 24 hours, spot net inflow is $87.02 million, futures net inflow is $185 million. However, from a 30-day perspective, spot has a net outflow of $3.77 billion, and futures net outflow reaches $8.29 billion. The short-term replenishment is clearly stronger than BTC, but the mid-term capital structure remains weak.
$SOL
🔻4-hour spot net inflow of $8.66 million, futures net inflow of $4.53 million. Over 24 hours, spot net inflow is $23.7 million, but futures have a net outflow of $58.94 million. The 30-day cumulative net outflow of futures is $2.17 billion.
Going forward, the key focus is whether the rebound can attract sustained incremental capital. If it is only a stock game, there is still a risk of a pullback after the rally. This time I'm siding with ETH first. BTC really broke through 80,000 last night, hitting a low of 79,505 on OKX, while ETH just brushed 2,297 and is now hovering above 2,340.
The contradiction is that money and price are moving in opposite directions. October isn't over yet, but the US spot ETH ETF has already seen a net outflow of over a billion dollars (about 1.18 billion as of 10/23), making it the worst month this year; at this rate of bleeding, the price should have collapsed long ago, but 2,300 just won't break.
The Federal Reserve decision is at 2 AM Beijing time tomorrow. They just raised 25 basis points in September, and about 90% of CME bets that there will be no change this time. I won't add positions before the shoe drops, using 2,300 as the dividing line.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 48-Hour Liquidation Pain Points Overview! Concentrated Chip Zones for Both Bulls and Bears
📊 Bullish Liquidation Pain Points
✅ BTC: Bullish pain point at 79966.32, -1.1% from current price, corresponding liquidation volume 63.154 million U
✅ ETH: Bullish pain point at 2280.09, -3.1% from current price, corresponding liquidation volume 33.7978 million U
✅ SOL: Bullish pain point at 99.09, -2.43% from current price, corresponding liquidation volume 7.8466 million U
📊 Bearish Liquidation Pain Points
✅ BTC: Current price 80856.3, bearish pain point at 81561.16, +0.87% away, corresponding liquidation volume 66.8784 million U
✅ ETH: Current price 2353.14, bearish pain point at 2375.77, +0.96% away, corresponding liquidation volume 22.805 million U
✅ SOL: Current price 101.56, bearish pain point at 102.12, +0.56% away, corresponding liquidation volume 6.4109 million U
Core Insight
The current market is stuck between the bullish and bearish pain points. The upper bearish liquidation zone is very close; a slight upward move can trigger a concentrated short squeeze. The lower bullish pain point is also nearby; a slight dip will wash out bullish chips. The liquidation capital accumulated on both sides is substantial, making it easy for short-term whipsaws and dual-direction harvesting. The market shows clear consolidation and shakeout patterns, with a relatively high risk for chasing positions. Saw a pretty cold piece of news: the world's fourth largest gold hub HKGX is going to use Chainlink's CCIP for cross-chain gold token XGZ. Usually, no one pays attention to this kind of news, but I think it's worth pondering more than most of the wild price surge or plunge news.
The tokenization of gold has been pushed since BlackRock started BUIDL last year. What's the bottleneck? It's that different chains don't recognize each other's accounts. For physical assets like gold, the custodian says it exists, so it exists, but if tokens are issued on Ethereum and then again on another chain, how do you prevent double-spending? Oracles solve this problem. Chainlink's current role is increasingly like financial infrastructure, not just hype.
Here's a contrast. When this news came out, LINK's price barely moved, hovering around 11.5. The market currently doesn't price in the narrative at all; everyone's focused on BTC hitting 80,000. When RWA really picks up volume someday, looking back at this kind of news might not be cheap.
I don't hold LINK and don't plan to get in now; BTC hasn't even chosen a direction yet. But I will keep watching this direction.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 [The U.S. Government Sold Anthropic Shares Too Early, Missing Out on $3.3 Billion]
Last year, the U.S. government sold 4.45 million shares of $ANTHROPIC, confiscated from the FTX case, for $627 million. Based on the market's rumored valuation of $1.5 trillion, these shares would now be worth about $3.94 billion, representing a book loss of over $3.3 billion. Selling too early by six times is even more thrilling than retail investors chasing highs and lows.
The proceeds were ultimately used to repay FTX creditors, while the shares were repurchased by Anthropic and then resold to nine investors. Anthropic has now filed IPO registration documents, planning to use $ANT as its Nasdaq ticker. The valuation imagination for AI companies certainly makes that past deal look especially cheap.
However, the $1.5 trillion remains a market-expected valuation, not the final offering price; since the shares were sold at the financing price back then, it cannot be simply concluded that the government made a poor decision. For FTX creditors, the $627 million was the actual realized repayment, and how much was missed afterward is another matter.92.8% of people are focused on the "no rate hike" at 2:00 as good news, but the real cut is at 2:30. CME gives a 92.8% chance of no change in October, Reuters surveyed 100 economists all betting on December, and CME shows about a 74.8% chance of a 25bp hike in December. The news is "no change," but the market is betting on "there's more to come." The most likely path: prices rise first at 2:00, then fall back at 2:30 when the Fed turns hawkish. BTC short-term trading range is 82,000–82,500, testing that before returning to fluctuate around 80,000; but if it's read as "December is the last hike," the decline might actually attract buyers. Don't make impulsive decisions on the spot; pre-load both hawkish and dovish scenarios into your algorithmic orders, simulate the market first, and let the strategy execute at 2:30 instead of chasing the candlesticks.SOL basically didn't keep up with this rebound; I tend to think it hasn't recovered yet.
In the past 24 hours, the low was 99.17, briefly breaking the 100 integer level, now climbing back near 101. During the same period, BTC rose from 80097 to 80630, ETH from 2321 to 2343, SOL from 100.73 to 101, basically standing still. The funding rate is 0.002%, essentially zero, and the open interest of 3.2 billion USD is flat—no one is adding positions, nor is anyone dumping.
After crossing the 100 level back and forth twice, it’s no longer support but a divergence line. My view is conservative: among this round of mainstream coin rebounds, SOL is the weakest leg. Whoever is holding or sneaking ahead, on-chain data is more stubborn than my words.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Watching the three positions on the screen, the short positions on DOGE and SOL were caught by a short-term rebound, with floating losses close to 29% and 17% respectively, relying entirely on the 20x isolated margin BTC long position to support the net value with an 18% floating profit. This kind of long-short struggle before the FOMC announcement is not surprising, as funds are all contracting their battle lines.
DOGE is currently priced around 0.0787, not far from my forced liquidation line at 0.0808. On the news front, the Dogecoin Foundation has just terminated the exclusive trademark license with House of Doge, demanding the other party pay $400,000 and change their name. This kind of ecological-level tug-of-war is unlikely to provide price support in the short term. SOL is also under pressure; the perpetual contract trading share has dropped from 17% to 6%, the Meme coin proportion has shrunk significantly, and ETFs have seen net outflows of about $50 million for two consecutive weeks. BTC has returned above $81,000, reaching a high of $81,300, but the FOMC is very likely to keep rates unchanged. The real variable lies in the post-meeting tone on December policy, with dense selling pressure still near the $81,000 level.
As long as BTC's long base remains stable, the floating losses on altcoins are still within an acceptable range. The stop-loss line is already locked in, waiting for the decision to be made before responding.
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DOGE Foundation terminates exclusive license, SOL transformation under pressure, BTC awaits FOMC guidance #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 SanDisk long position is currently in profit, with the FY27Q1 earnings report after the market tomorrow.
Options market pricing: single-day volatility after earnings ±9.87%. The actual next-day volatility for the past four earnings reports was -6.81%, +8.25%, +6.85%, +15.31%.
My stop-loss level just falls within the range that the options market considers "there is a 50% chance it will reach." 1200 is the lower hedge wall marked by the options structure. But on a night priced at ±9.87%, a reasonable position is not the same as a safe position. The put/call skew steepened before earnings, indicating someone is buying protection against downside.
The fundamentals have no cracks. The cracks are on the "expectation" side.
TrendForce: Q4 NAND contract prices will rise another 15%-20%, enterprise SSDs up 23%-28%. Citi says supply tightness will continue until 2028, with a target price of $2100.
But consensus revenue is already 46.61. The company's own guidance upper limit is 46. Wedbush raised its earnings forecast to 49.04 before earnings—raising profit expectations but maintaining the $2000 target price unchanged. Better profits are accepted; "stock price should be higher" has not yet been confirmed.
In the past four quarters, SanDisk has significantly exceeded guidance each time. Is "meeting guidance" enough in the face of the inertia of "always exceeding it"?
I don't guess tomorrow's earnings numbers. But the data structure is clear:
Fundamentals are accelerating, and acceleration has been priced in. The options market prices earnings as a ±9.87% event, and my stop-loss falls within that. The $1258 cost is not enough against this thickness.
I don't guess tops or bottoms. But on earnings night, position size should reflect tolerance for "asymmetric volatility," not conviction in NAND's long-term tight supply.
What do you think? Will SanDisk "significantly beat expectations and push shorts back," or "meet expectations and let the options market realize that 9.87%"?
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $SNDK #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ 92.8% of people are focused on the Fed's "no rate hike" at 2:00 AM tomorrow, calling it bullish, but the real knife comes at 2:30.
CME gives a 92.8% chance of no change in October, Reuters surveyed 100 economists all betting on December, and CME shows about a 74.8% chance of a 25bp hike in December. The news is "no change," but the market is betting "there's more to come."
Most likely path: rise first at 2:00, then fall back at 2:30 when Waller turns hawkish. BTC short-term range between 82,000–82,500, test that level then return to around 80,000 to consolidate;
But if it's read as "December is the last time," then the drop will attract buyers. Don't make snap decisions on the spot; pre-load both hawkish and dovish scenarios into algorithmic orders, run simulations first, and let the strategy execute at 2:30 instead of chasing the K-line.Brothers, I'm a PhD, let's break down the funding rate chart
The current funding rate is 0.010%, positive. From the end of September to now, about a month, look — most of the time the bars are red (positive funding rate), with only a few days showing green (negative funding rate). What does this mean? It means that over the past month, longs have consistently outnumbered shorts, and longs have been subsidizing shorts.
Here's the key point: over this month, Bitcoin dropped from 84,000 to 79,000, a 5,000-point drop, but the funding rate remained positive throughout. Have you ever seen this? The price has been falling for a month, yet longs not only haven't left but are increasing. This is a classic case of "buying the dip"; retail investors are stubbornly holding long positions above 80,000, with leverage piling up.
Now look at those few green bars — early October, mid-October, October 22. Each time a negative funding rate appeared, the price bounced briefly. Negative funding rates indicate too many shorts, with longs collecting fees, which tends to lead to a rebound.
Currently, the funding rate has surged back to a high of 0.010%, with long leverage maxed out. I think if the FOMC turns hawkish tomorrow night, these longs who are subsidizing shorts will be the fuel — once the price breaks below 79,000, cascading liquidations of longs will accelerate the decline. Conversely, if the FOMC is dovish, short stop-losses might trigger a bounce, but the upside will be limited.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $PEPE was pumped this morning. As of 10:00 AM Beijing time on October 28, OKX spot PEPE/USDT is quoted at 0.000004922, up about 14.3% in 24h, with an intraday high of 0.00000495; CoinGecko shows a 24h trading volume of approximately $378 million and a market cap of about $2.04 billion, breaking into the top five trending searches.
The main news is from Justin Sun: Arkham data shows that two wallets associated with him withdrew 72 trillion and 46.5 trillion PEPE from Poloniex on October 17 and 26 respectively, holding about $51 million worth, accounting for approximately 2.82% of total supply, making him the largest individual holder outside exchanges. Within one hour this morning, shorts on the three major exchanges were liquidated for about $330,000, squeezing the bears.
My view: This wave is driven by whale narratives and short squeezes; the project itself has no new developments. The key is the subsequent moves of Sun's addresses—if he continues to accumulate, there will be a story to tell; if he transfers coins to exchanges, sentiment will quickly reverse. 0.000005 is a psychological level; whether it can hold depends on volume. First, about the position: I'm still empty-handed. I didn't dare to catch this wave of Ethereum, and I haven't recovered the long position I cut yesterday.
Ethereum is now at 2,355, up 1.4% in one day. Compared to the big brother, the ETH/BTC ratio only rose 0.3%—in other words, it's stronger than Bitcoin, but only slightly, not the kind of strength that leads the charge forward. The 2,400 level above is a round number resistance, which hasn't been touched these past two days.
My view: Ethereum's rise is supported by the overall market, not because it's particularly strong on its own. The variable here is: if the ETH/BTC ratio can keep rising for several days, then there really is capital switching into Ethereum, and that would be a different story.
Position reminder: Don't just heavy-load a single coin because it’s rising; the risk of a single coin going wrong is much higher than the overall market.
So, for this slightly stronger but not leading Ethereum, would you dare to hold it alone? Polymarket's US version quietly launched a new feature last night: 5-minute crypto price movement predictions, featuring only four coins—BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP.
This selection of four coins is quite telling. Prediction markets used to settle daily or weekly, but now they've compressed it into 5-minute rounds, effectively institutionalizing short-term speculation. SOL making it into this quartet is no accident; in terms of volatility and retail participation, the platform treats it as a standard.
I casually checked the current price; SOL is hovering around 101, with a 24-hour low of 99.2, having recovered quite neatly. Today is also a Federal Reserve decision day, and having this kind of 5-minute market on a decision day is like a casino within a casino.
My view: this is a double-edged sword for SOL. The attention is genuinely coming, but these newcomers don’t hold positions—they only bet on direction, so volatility will be amplified by sentiment. The platform knows better than us which coin’s volatility is most valuable, and that statement alone carries weight.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Looking at news about listed companies holding crypto, I usually first check whether the funds can be circulated, then look at the coin price. The macro environment determines the tightness of financing, while whether assets can be accessed at any time determines if a company has room to maneuver; these two aspects cannot be viewed separately.
According to The Block, Datavault AI's stock price plummeted nearly 50%, and the company stated that starting June 2026, it will be unable to withdraw the $BTC stored with Biconomy. This crypto came from an equity transaction in September 2025: Scilex agreed to purchase its shares and warrants with BTC worth $150 million, with the related BTC recorded in wallets via off-chain transfers.
My speculation is that if the financing environment tightens, the market will place more emphasis on available cash; if the held crypto cannot be accessed, then even if the coin price rises, it may not alleviate the company's funding pressure. For large capital, this affects the assessment of asset quality, not just the judgment of coin price.
Another layer of impact is financing feedback: if asset restrictions increase uncertainty, equity investors may demand higher risk compensation, and subsequent corporate financing may become more difficult. However, inability to withdraw does not equal confirmed loss, and the two should not be conflated.
Therefore, I tend to see this as an alarm for listed companies' crypto asset management rather than a direct bearish signal for the entire Bitcoin market. When judging the funding pressure of such companies, which macro factor do people care about most now: interest rates, US dollar liquidity, or stock market risk appetite? SK Hynix's Q3 sales reached 104.62 trillion KRW, and they even declared that by 2026 the total shareholder return scale will reach 100 trillion. This wave of prosperity in memory directly slaps the numbers in your face, no objections accepted.
SNDK contracts are now hovering around 1310, up nearly 3% in 24 hours, with the low point at 1254 pulled up and never looked back. This round is really not about hype; HBM and enterprise-grade SSDs are solid shipments.
I used to worry that the memory cycle had peaked, but with these results, I admit I was wrong—the peak hasn't arrived yet. But I won't chase it at this level; I'll wait for a pullback.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 📌 $BTC news: A diversified allocation ETF plans to allocate 2% to Bitcoin, ranging from 1% to 5%, with institutional positions gradually increasing.
But I don't follow the market: the price rose 1.23% in 24 hours, yet the open interest dropped 1.3%, indicating shorts are closing positions, not new money entering. Such a rebound is likely to top out.
I'm watching the $81,009 level, which has been tested 11 times on the upside, pulled back 7 times, broken through 3 times, and once with no reaction. Only a break above gives a chance; failure means consolidation.
Do you think it will first sweep the stop losses below, or break through directly? #BTCETFFlowSwings #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Robinhood relies on market predictions and options to drive growth, with its crypto business weak; growth is constrained by market sentiment and regulatory restrictions, making its sustainability questionable.There are 870,000 coins waiting to be sold on top of Bitcoin.
Bitfinex counted: around 82,500, with 874,000 coins trapped. Once the price rises back, they won't lose anymore and will sell at any time.
What's more troublesome is that fewer people are taking over.
Yesterday, for the US ETF, only BlackRock was buying; the others were all zero. A few days ago, $770 million was withdrawn.
On one side, 870,000 coins are waiting to be sold; on the other, only one buyer remains.
My view:
When it rises to 82,500, don't rush to buy.
There are many people standing there wanting to break even and leave; only after they finish selling will there be the next wave.$BTC just touched back near 80800. The position data doesn't match up, which is a bit surprising. The price has been rising since last night, but the 24-hour open interest actually dropped by two points. The funding rate stayed at the baseline reading without moving. There are no new long buy orders on the exchange; this round of price increase wasn't driven by active buying.
Looking at the 15-minute chart, after breaking below the previous low this morning, it was pulled back. Just now, a bullish candle retraced the morning's decline. However, the overall volume shrank during the rebound. Although the price touched back to the high, the trading volume didn't pick up. The upward momentum is weak, more like a short squeeze.
Switching to the 4-hour level, the current price near 81,000 is exactly the swing high from a few days ago. Several 4-hour EMAs are sloping downward, showing a clear downtrend. The price is not only pressed down by the moving averages on top but also faces a major horizontal resistance ahead.
In the short term, I lean towards bearish. The price is capped by this major 4-hour resistance, and without incremental funds, it's hard to break through. The trend is more likely to reverse downward for a pullback.
$ETH $SOL #美加稳定币监管明确收益边界 #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落
US stock market news analysis: AI faith is back again, but Meta itself has already stumbled
Overnight, the three major US stock indexes all closed higher, with the Nasdaq leading, up 1.18%, and the S&P 500 up 0.60%
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 3.60%, with all 30 component stocks in the green. AMD rose 5.45%, Broadcom up 4%, Intel up 3.61%, Micron up 2.77%. But Meta, the top in trading volume, closed down 1.64%, with $31.9 billion in turnover.
Price changes and trading volume:
Money is flowing into chips.
AMD traded $11.4 billion, Micron $21.1 billion, Nvidia $18.4 billion. Storage and optical communications continue to surge, Western Digital up nearly 7%, Lumentum up 5.88%. But Meta’s $25 billion common stock issuance subscription was oversubscribed 5 times, yet the stock price fell. To translate: institutions are buying, retail investors are selling, or someone is using good news to unload shares.
News:
Two things are supporting AI sentiment. First, the afterglow of Anthropic’s IPO remains, with Broadcom leading a $63 billion financing round to help Anthropic buy chips.
Second, the easing of US-Iran tensions has pushed oil prices below $100, easing inflation expectations.
AI hardware is rising, AI financing is shifting, but Meta’s trend says one thing: money is not unlimited. Tonight’s Microsoft and Google earnings reports will be the real test; good performance is expected, but weak guidance will be a cut.I imagined a job interview: Solana shows up on Wall Street wearing a suit, with a resume that says "Good at creating hype." The interviewer says: We're hiring for financial infrastructure, not for party atmosphere coordinators. 😂
According to Bloomberg, Solana is trying to shift from relying on Meme coins and speculative trading to financial applications like stablecoins and tokenized assets, aiming for adoption on Wall Street; JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Standard Chartered, as well as Visa and Fiserv, have already started related operations on the network. My judgment is: the most important aspect of this shift is not the change in client list, but that the evaluation criteria will become stricter, which will have a more direct impact on infrastructure builders.
Speculative trading values hype, but payment services must withstand everyday use. If institutional business expands, then network stability and predictability of transaction costs may become more important than how hyped the network is on any given day. This is my speculation and the direction I prefer to focus on.
Tokenized assets face another challenge: being transferable on-chain does not mean off-chain rights are clear. What the assets correspond to, how to redeem them, and who is responsible in case of disputes all determine whether the business can go far. I would not directly interpret "institutions have started business" as "the transformation has already succeeded."
If you were to audit for an institution, would you first check network stability or asset redemption rules? Choose one, and join the discussion in the comments: For this interview, would you have Solana take the data center test first or the legal test first?#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ robinhood chain, Robinhood's blockchain, where users trade stock tokens. From October 6 to 12, decentralized exchange trading volume dropped by 30% to $6.35 billion. However, from September 30 to October 12, the total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance rose to $1.058 billion, with the lending protocol Morpho holding $486.8 million in outstanding loans on the chain. Therefore, lending has now become a significant use case, not just trading. That week, borrowers on Morpho paid about $417,000 in interest and liquidation bonuses, but Morpho recorded zero protocol revenue.The news that Ripple is expanding the RLUSD stablecoin within the Robinhood ecosystem on October 27, 2026, is notable because it aims to broaden real-world applications, not just focus on the speculative story of $XRP price. If Robinhood implements the XRP Ledger for institutional payments, this could be a step forward in helping the Ripple network access more financial payment activities. However, it is important to clearly distinguish: RLUSD is a USD-pegged stablecoin, while XRP is a separate digital asset. The expansion of RLUSD does not imply increased demand to buy $XRP