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ETH's recent on-chain activity is not clean. Within three weeks, 6,989 physical tokens were withdrawn from Binance, costing about 17.5 million. There is indeed capital pre-positioning on the spot side. However, the market hasn't followed through, and the price is still hovering around 2351. The liquidation chart shows a massive long liquidation pressure at the 2342 level; breaking below this will directly increase the downward slope, with around 2205 being the next dense long liquidation zone. On the upside, there are thick short orders between 2400 and 2450, and without volume in the short term, it's hard to break through.
While waiting for a meal, I glanced at my phone, and the order reminder went off again, no time to worry. It's not cost-effective to chase longs at this position now; the trend moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, MACD has formed a death cross and is correcting, RSI is just an oversold rebound.
The operation strategy is mainly to short on rebounds. Entry range is set between 2405 and 2435, with stop loss above 2452. The first take profit target is 2335, and if broken, look to 2205. If the hourly chart shows volume and stabilizes above 2452, the bearish logic is invalidated; do not stubbornly hold longs.
$ETH
#Anthropic正式申请IPO，或创上市估值纪录
@OKX星球 Unrealized profit exceeds 400%, the only rule: must lock in at least half.
This $ZEC trade is 50x long, opened at 1202.72, current price 1306.91, unrealized profit 433.14%.
Three numbers to watch: buffer 7.97%, support 1300, resistance 1350.
Buffer 7.97% — if it drops 7.97%, this 433% profit goes to zero. With 50x leverage, this margin can't withstand a decent pullback. It's 2.3 percentage points thicker than the 5.67% from last night, relying on price moving further, not on improved technicals.
1300's role has changed: from resistance to support, currently 6.91 points (0.53%) below. Breaking this level means the recent climb was false. 1350 is 43.09 points (3.30%) overhead; breaking through 1400 is possible.
Three fixed rules:
1. Cut position if it falls below 1300. Don't wait for the cost line; take the integer level first.
2. Only talk about 1400 after holding above 1350.
3. Set a time limit. 50x leverage charges funding fees on nominal position size, eating up nearly half the profit if held sideways for a day. $ETH $BTC
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 I have already set up my short positions in advance, just afraid it won't give me the chance.
The Federal Reserve will announce the results at 2 AM tomorrow, and I've already placed my short orders ahead of time these past two days.
From the big picture, I see this wave as a weekly-level decline, not just a one- or two-day pullback. Since I see it this way, I won't wait for any "confirmation signals"; I'll prepare in advance mainly to avoid missing out—if it really goes straight down, by the time I react, the opportunity will be gone.
I have two scenarios for tomorrow's movement.
$BTC will most likely pump first and then drop. Once the data is released, $ETH will surge up; I estimate it will reach around 2380, most likely not surpassing 2400. On the order book, there are many short positions clustered around 2388 and 2400; pumping to that area is just to help those trapped positions get out and to create the illusion for bulls that "the bull is back." After such a pump, it usually turns down and doesn't look back.
The other scenario is a drop first. If it really crashes down first, I won't panic; after the drop, there will likely be a rebound, and then I can short again at a more comfortable position.
So I set up in advance mainly to deal with the first scenario. Pump then dump is the most deceptive; when it pumps, you think it's a reversal and chase in, only to catch the top.
The macro environment is also on my side. It's clear that there will be no rate hike in October; 90% of people know this, but the probability of a rate hike in December is already 67%. Reuters asked 100 economists, and all bet on a December hike. Oil prices are still above 100, inflation can't be suppressed; this is just a "hawkish pause." The big coin is the same; 81300 and 81700 are all holding short positions, pumping up is also to help trapped positions get out.
For weekly-level trades, I’m not in a rush for these one or two days; I’ll wait patiently. #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 $ETH BTC's 80,000 level is pinned by options gamma, with market makers selling rallies and buying dips to suppress volatility. The real test lies at the 78,000 maximum pain point. ETH follows a different logic: once 2,285 is breached, a roughly $561 million long liquidation zone below 2,245 will be exposed, making its structure more fragile than BTC. Both are in consolidation, but ETH's downside risk is more concrete and imminent.#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
As the rate decision night approaches, the market seems muted. A rate hold has almost become consensus: the probability of the market staying put has exceeded 90%, with some platforms even at 94%, compared to a 50-50 split two weeks ago. The chance of a 25 basis point hike is now in the single digits, and the outcome is likely already priced in.
$BTC is tugging around $80,000, dipping to $79,300 in early trading before being pulled back. After losing the $80,500-$81,000 range, short-term weakness is expected; next focus is whether $78,500-$79,000 can hold. The first resistance is at $82,000, and only a move back above $82,500 would suggest buying interest returning.
$ETH is consolidating narrowly between $2,310-$2,335; a break below support could lead to $2,240. On the upside, rebounds target $2,360 first, then $2,430-$2,500. Volume is light ahead of the meeting, as everyone waits for signals before making moves.😄
High interest rates continue to weigh on risk assets. If the statement is dovish and not aggressive on a December hike, funds may retest the crypto market. The game now is not about predictions but how to respond once the results are out. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $BTC $ETH $SOL
Google's Q3 earnings report looks lively but actually hides risks! Short-term data holds up, but the long-term moat is already loosening.
Search ads remain a stable cash cow, but AI search is diverting users, and combined with antitrust pressure, this foundation is slowly being eroded.
Cloud business is the current growth ace, with impressive growth and a high backlog of orders, but it also burns cash fiercely. A lot of capital is poured in, turning free cash flow directly negative.
The market has become more selective; revenue expectations look good, but net profit is expected to decline by 7.6%. People no longer just look at growth rates; they are watching when the AI investment will break even.
So the focus of this earnings report is not how much was earned, but two things: whether capital expenditures will be restrained and whether the outlook for the search business has worsened.
This directly determines whether Google is only under short-term pressure or if its fundamentals are starting to weaken.
Everyone understands the linkage between US stocks and the crypto market; Google's direction will also affect market sentiment.
Do you think this earnings report can hold steady, or will it be a bombshell?
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 Bitcoin's past bear markets have all followed a clear and reliable navigation chart: the 200-week moving average serves as a solid floor, while the 50-week moving average acts as a suppressive ceiling. In the week ending November 16, 2025, the price fell below the 50-week moving average and lingered below it for a full 44 weeks. The low point in June this year tested the floor support and successfully held: the worst single-week closing price was only 4.7% below the 200-week moving average (compared to 1.4% in 2015, 2.8% in 2018, and 32% in 2022). In the week ending September 20, 2026, the price reclaimed above the 50-week moving average; by the week ending October 18, it had achieved a fifth consecutive week closing above it. In every complete bear market since 2011, the first sustained hold above the ceiling occurred after the cycle bottom was confirmed, with the spot price on Thursday $81,391, 6% above that moving average. The pullback since Wednesday's close has not posed a substantive threat to the breakout. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC "Intent Trading (Intents)" is the hottest narrative recently in the cross-chain and trading sectors. The front-end experience is indeed smooth, but when you peel back the underlying ledger, behind the astonishing trading volume, the protocol's profits and token capture face serious disconnections.
Comparing these three targets:
$NEAR: Leveraging the Intents protocol, cross-chain trading volume has exceeded tens of billions of dollars, with a grand narrative. However, a rigorous breakdown of its financial data reveals that the protocol uses the vast majority of its revenue for buybacks, yet the absolute monthly buyback amount remains very small, and the bought-back tokens are not burned.
$UNI: As a pioneer of intent trading, its Dutch auction mechanism greatly enhances user experience. But the core profits of this mechanism (MEV and slippage gains) are taken by fillers, leaving the protocol's cut very low. Additionally, UNI's fee switch is just starting, so the massive trading volume has not yet effectively translated into token empowerment.
$1INCH (Fusion mode): A veteran leader among aggregators. It faces the same dilemma of "large trading volume but thin protocol profits." Due to the lack of a hard mechanism to forcibly convert external income into token burns, the token price remains under long-term pressure, mainly sustained by inflation subsidies to maintain the ecosystem.
Conclusion:
These three targets demonstrate three types of value disconnections in the intent trading sector: NEAR is "has trading volume but buybacks do not burn"; UNI is "has trading volume but profits are intercepted by third parties"; 1INCH is "has trading volume but lacks a forced empowerment mechanism." Folks, just finished reviewing yesterday's ETF fund flows, and institutional moves are really clear-cut 😮
First, $BTC: yesterday saw a net inflow of $110 million, but in the disclosed data, almost only BlackRock IBIT is "doing its homework," while other institutions are collectively quiet 🤐. This signal is pretty direct — big money buying BTC prefers top-tier products, showing a strong tendency for funds to cluster around the leaders 🏦.
Now looking at $ETH: overall net outflow of $88.6 million, quite a bit of pressure. The most eye-catching is BlackRock alone withdrawing over $100 million 💥, while Fidelity bought against the trend with $16.1 million 🛒. One side is pulling out, the other is stepping in, indicating significant short-term disagreement among institutions on ETH, even top players are shrinking their exposure.
What does this mean? BTC still has funds willing to support it, while ETH is clearly being pulled back and forth 🤔. In this situation, don’t rush to guess the bottom 🙅, watch more and act less, waiting for funds to flow back before following the rhythm is not too late ⏳📊#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 When the war breaks out, slogans rise first: safe haven, gold, Bitcoin.📣
And the result? Gold dropped to a three-week low, $BTC fell below 80K. The so-called "safe haven" first scared off those chasing highs.😅
War is not a safe haven event; it is an inflation event. Oil prices push up, interest rates are hard to ease, leveraged assets fluctuate while paying interest for others' wars.💸
Trump said high oil prices are a "small price worth paying." He's not wrong—it's just that the cost doesn't fall on his account, but on ordinary people, leveraged players, and those who take over last.🧾
I’m not bearish on war, I’m bearish on the template "war is good for crypto." Every cycle, someone treats "safe haven" as a ticket in, and every cycle the bill falls on the same group of people.🪤
Don’t mistake artillery fire for good news, don’t mistake slogans for liquidity. The real hedge is often not the asset, but using less leverage.⚠️#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 【Don't panic over the ETF outflow, first check if the chip supply is loosening】٩(๑•̀ω•́๑)۶
BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $773.5 million over two days, cutting off the inflow momentum from the previous week, with institutions pulling back short-term; the $80,000–$81,500 cost zone has turned into a resistance band (｡•́︿•̀｡). But don't just focus on capital flows, on-chain signals are stronger: long-term holder supply has shrunk by over 50,000 coins, about 13 times the ETF buying volume; Strategy has stopped buying and holds 848,000 coins, showing early signs of large holders loosening their grip (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧.
Macro is also conflicted: BTC is projected to drop 7.3% in 2026, XAU down 7.5%, with safe-haven assets falling the same year, indicating a reshuffling of risk appetite and a temporary failure of the safe-haven logic (⊙_⊙). Another safety warning: Market Vector wallet was hacked for $2,021 due to an RBF transaction vulnerability; the amount is small but the signal is significant; always verify signatures before transactions, on-chain security is no small matter (｡･ω･｡)ﾉ♡.
Conclusion: In the short term, watch ETF outflows and the $80,000–$81,500 resistance band; in the medium term, monitor whether long-term holders and large holders continue to loosen their chips; don't get caught up in daily noise, the battle between capital and chips is the main storyline. With the FOMC approaching, volatility will increase, but signals matter more than sentiment (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
$BTC $ETH $XAU #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $ETH whale's 25x short position sparks heated discussion, is the stop-loss setting just for show?
Just saw a highly discussed large order from a trader using 25x leverage to short 9,700 $ETH, with a total position value of about $22.46 million, opening price at $2311.92. Currently, there's a slight unrealized loss of $48,000, which is not significant given the trader's capital size, but the profit and loss settings on the order are worth examining.
The take-profit is set at $2058.2, while part of the stop-loss is placed at $2750.1.
A simple calculation: from the opening price down to the take-profit, the drop is about 11%; if the stop-loss is triggered upwards, the price needs to rise nearly 19%. Under 25x leverage, this risk-reward ratio is clearly unbalanced, with limited profit potential but losses that can be sharply magnified if the market reverses.
There is an even more critical risk here: with the same 25x leverage, if ETH price rebounds to around $2400, just a 4% increase, this position worth over $22 million would be liquidated immediately.
Setting the stop-loss at $2750 seems more like a psychological comfort order, unlikely to provide real protection. Either the trader is extremely confident the price will fall to the target, or they have deep pockets to absorb liquidation costs.
Such high-risk operations are only suitable for participants with very strong capital. Ordinary traders should never imitate this. Heavy positions with high leverage can lead to total loss of principal with even slight adverse price movements.
$ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The group has been shouting for several months that UNI could reach 20, but still holds back 30% without releasing it, while HYPE has only released 22%, and OKB has fully released its chips. The three platform tokens are weakening together; it's not the price that's falling, but the new liquidity is really too scarce...
$UNI at 7.10, down 26% in 30 days, 84% down from ATH 45. September protocol revenue hit a record 14.81 million, buybacks have been ongoing. But only 624 million are circulating out of a total of 1 billion, with more than 30% still unreleased!
$HYPE at 77.3, down 1.7% in 7 days, 21% down from ATH 97.9. 24h fee income is 2.23 million, 99% buyback, 9.9% already burned. But only 22.24% of the total 100 million is unlocked, FDV is more than four times the market cap, and there is another unlock on November 6. Each unlock is equivalent to a sell-off, so everyone should watch carefully!
$OKB at 108.6, down 7.7% in 7 days, 58% down from the high of 258. 21 million tokens are fully circulating, no unlocking involved. But 24h trading volume is only 19.37 million, currently unable to support the 2.28 billion market cap. Still, as the second platform token, I am relatively optimistic!
Profits are still there; the problem lies in the chips. UNI earns a lot but also has a lot of selling pressure, HYPE is always diluted on the way, and no one is taking OKB. This is what I don't understand the most. In a month, you'll know how attractive OKB just above 100 is!
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
#FOMC Eve Coin Divergence: ETH Hits Bottom and Recovers, ZEC Speculation Needs Caution for Profit Taking
The market consensus is that the probability of no rate hike in October exceeds 90%, but the risk of a rate hike in December remains. Coupled with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling below 5%, liquidity expectations are marginally easing, and coin divergence on the market is becoming more pronounced.
After nearly a 14% plunge over 30 days, ETH's lowest dip to 2281 has basically released bearish momentum. The 4-hour MACD golden cross has turned positive, with consolidation forming a bottom in the 2300-2340 range. The liquidation heatmap shows clear key levels: 2365 above is a dense stop-loss zone for shorts; breaking through will trigger short liquidations impacting the 2400-2445 resistance area. Below, 2286 is strong support for longs; losing this will lead to further dips to 2247-2207. However, fundamental pressure remains: ETFs have seen over 1.26 billion outflows in October, foundations continue to reduce holdings, upgrades are delayed, and the current move is merely an oversold recovery with heavy selling pressure near 2400, making a reversal unlikely.
While mainstream coins remain generally weak, ZEC is strengthening against the trend near the 1300 mark on NU7 upgrade expectations, with block time reducing from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. However, this rally is a pre-trade of good news, and caution is needed for a pullback after the hype. BTC continues to consolidate around the 80,000 level, with new funds showing strong wait-and-see sentiment, awaiting a macro breakout signal.
Before the decision, light positions for recovery play are advised; do not mistake the rebound for a reversal. The final direction will still be dictated by the Fed's wording.$BTC holders are starting to collectively lose money! From 75% to 16%, how fast has the market turned?
Stop just focusing on $BTC's candlestick charts; the chips in the exchanges might be revealing even more painful signals.
On October 27, the short-term Bitcoin holders' inflows to exchanges have shifted to being dominated by losses. $BTC
The net inflow balance of loss versus profit changed from +10,400 BTC a week ago to -18,600 BTC.
Even more striking, in the past week, the proportion of hourly inflows in profit dropped from 75% to 16%.
What does this mean?
A week ago, most of the chips entering exchanges were still in profit; now, the proportion of profitable chips has clearly shrunk, and the pressure from loss-driven selling is taking over.
This doesn't mean all short-term holders are cutting losses, but the market's chip structure is changing.
As more people move from floating profits to floating losses, two choices usually follow: accept losses and exit, increasing selling pressure; or hold on without selling, waiting for a rebound to break even. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 The native token ENA of the Ethena protocol is undergoing a silent liquidity withdrawal. The current quote is $0.2072, with a market cap of $2.77 billion, but the 24-hour trading volume is only $7.11 million, with a turnover rate of less than 0.3%—a "zombie" level performance in the DeFi sector. The price is narrowly consolidating between 0.201 and 0.213, with a decline of only 0.2%, indicating that both buyers and sellers are waiting and watching.
Smart money signals directly indicate a net short position, net holdings are zero, and the long-short ratio is unavailable, showing that professional market makers have withdrawn from market making. Although the issuance of the USDe synthetic dollar stablecoin has not shrunk significantly, the continuously declining yield has weakened the staking demand for ENA. Social sentiment has completely cooled off, mention volume is uncountable, bullish and bearish sentiments are both zero, and even FUD is too lazy to be generated.
Core judgment: Unless the protocol launches a new yield engine or USDe expands beyond expectations, ENA will continue to bottom out in the 0.20-0.22 range with weak rebounds.$DOOD DOOD's chart is very straightforward.
In the past 30 days, contract funds have been net inflows, firmly locking in over 10 million USD, accounting for nearly half of the market cap.
During several market pullbacks, this capital didn't withdraw a single cent.
Short sellers pay interest daily, while the dealer's chips become increasingly secure.
Opening short positions under such strong control is equivalent to directly providing liquidity to the dealer.
The market has been thoroughly shaken out; the next step is to surge upward and crush the shorts.
#DOOD
$DOOD
👇$BTC retraced to $80,000, but futures open interest is nearly half less than the peak! Has the capital fled, or is the early bull market still clearing leverage?
Glassnode data shows: In October 2025, BTC futures open interest peaked at $85.3 billion, now only $45.7 billion remains, a nominal decrease of about 46.4%! But there is a common misinterpretation here: the shrinkage in USD-denominated positions is not entirely due to closing positions. BTC price decline also lowers the USD value of contracts.
More noteworthy is the change in position structure: CME’s share dropped from nearly one-third to 19%, while Hyperliquid reached 7%. Many CME positions involve spot-futures basis arbitrage. Declining returns and arbitrage capital withdrawal do not necessarily mean institutions are collectively bearish on BTC.
My cycle judgment remains clear: the bear market is over, and BTC is in a structurally complex early bull phase. However, deleveraging is not yet complete.
Glassnode’s latest weekly report shows some recent increase in futures positions, long funding rates remain relatively high, and spot selling pressure has not disappeared. Therefore, the retracement near $80,000 is not only a price test but also a dual test of market absorption and leverage structure. A truly healthy early bull should be driven by sustained spot demand, not by contract players taking turns stepping on the gas.
The bull has entered, but it’s best not to unbuckle your seatbelt yet!ARK Invest made two notable moves in one day.
$5.2M into Circle shares.
$15.9M out of its own Bitcoin ETF.
The contrast is striking: greater exposure to a stablecoin issuer while reducing Bitcoin ETF holdings.
But portfolio rebalancing isn’t necessarily a bearish Bitcoin signal.
The bigger question is whether ARK sees more opportunity in crypto infrastructure than in direct BTC exposure.
#BTC #SamsungWalletUSDC $ZEC
Last night BTC touched a low of 79505, breaking below 80,000, while ZEC was doing the opposite: up 6.3% in 24 hours, now at 1311, with a high of 1317.
The funding rate tells the story better; ZEC perpetual funding rate is still negative, -0.0027%, shorts are paying longs and it hasn't stopped. From the low of 1211, this rally is about 8%.
The market has fallen for three consecutive weeks, but an old coin is moving up against the trend. I tend to think this is not retail-driven. The 1200 level has been defended several times without breaking, and after reclaiming 1300, ZEC is one of the few coins with a still intact bullish structure.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The sell-off in the space sector is recovering, led again by Intuitive Machines—OKX xLUNR at 11.61, +10.26%, climbing from 10.46 to 11.61 over 24h, hugging the highs, with MA5/30/120 all above the station; Rocket Lab follows with +7%, the sector is bouncing back.
What's driving this? This rally is more than just an oversold rebound—LUNR actually has real assets: order backlog hit a record $1.76 billion, with full-year revenue guidance of $900 million to $1 billion; more importantly, the national security business surged from 3% in Q2 to 30%, and they secured a Golden Dome missile defense order for 18 satellites—once the defense narrative is added, the valuation logic shifts from a moon concept to space military industry.
My judgment: sector recovery plus fundamental realization are dual drivers, more solid than pure concept speculation; OKX price sticking to 24h highs and all moving averages above is a strong signal, but space stocks are volatile, SPAC origin means high beta, so think carefully about position size before chasing highs.
Watch the signals: whether 11.61 (24h high) can break out with volume; if it holds steady at highs, sentiment remains; the most critical is the details of national security contract execution—the speed of order fulfillment will determine how far the recovery can go.
#xLUNR #IntuitiveMachines #SpaceStocks
Not investment advice, DYORAs of Wednesday, one of the three major narratives this week—the US stock earnings reports—is about to take effect, and the US stock indices are rising. What exactly is being traded? First layer: Macro pressures are gradually easing. The US-Iran situation is moving from complexity to a clear main line. The US proposed a shorter plan to restore the strait, Iran's Supreme Leader responded positively, China stepped in to mediate, and Palestine, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE acted as guarantors, focusing on the Israeli election. Once Israeli obstacles are removed, the possibility of US-Iran easing before the midterm elections greatly increases. The US-Iran situation slows down → energy prices drop, Brent returns below $110 → future inflation sentiment eases → December rate hike possibility wavers → bond yields weaken → risk markets gradually ease, and the Fed policy factor is temporarily in a vacuum period. The easing of macro factors currently dominates, and proportionally, I believe this accounts for 50% of the stimulus driving the US stock rise. Second layer: US core AI giants' earnings expectations are good, and the market is reacting in advance. Tonight, US stock indices are rising, but not across the board; gains are mainly concentrated in AI infrastructure, semiconductors, and high Beta tech, clearly not a broad US stock rally. The positive driver comes from the AI industry narrative stimulus. Starting Thursday, the world's top three cloud providers in the AI industry—Microsoft, Google, and Amazon—will release earnings reports. The market currently expects strong earnings, with earnings expectations advancing ahead under the unlocking of macro pressures. #SK Hynix Q3 earnings are imminent; can HBM4 boost profitability? Cloud providers occupy a key central position in the AI commercial industry. Positive earnings can guide upstream AI infrastructure and semiconductor expectations to strengthen, downstream can be stimulated.FOMC Quiet Period: Holding Steady ≠ Easing, Don't Mistake a Pause for a Turn
As the October FOMC approaches, the Federal Reserve enters a quiet period, officials remain silent, and the market enters a wait-and-see mode. BTC is consolidating around 81,500, with a 92.8% probability priced in for no change this month. But pausing rate hikes does not mean easing; it just means stopping tightening. Don't misinterpret "no hike" as "easing."
Data Doesn't Cooperate: Initial jobless claims are near multi-year lows, employment remains resilient, inflation risks are not fully cleared, and rate hike expectations linger into December. Hidden bearish factors have not dissipated.
The rhythm has three layers: short-term is mildly bullish with volatility, the 10Y US Treasury yield stabilizes at 5%, 81,000 support is solid, 82,000 provides a floor, and the 81,300–84,400 range is a repeated consolidation box; mid-term depends entirely on the wording—dovish tone could break 84,800 and push to 87,000, hawkish tone would cause yields to rebound and BTC to retest 80,800; fundamentally, it depends on new inflows, rebounds rely on short covering, ETF buying has not entered, so sustained upward momentum is insufficient.
Conclusion: The risk of sharp risk-off drops this month is lifted, but conditions for a surge are not met. The quiet period will continue box consolidation, and the October 28 meeting wording will determine the subsequent trend. The pause is a rhythm, not a direction.
#10月FOMC #BTC $ETH All positions are showing unrealized losses! Top whale is holding through triple short positions
Three short positions fully open, all currently at a loss, relying on funding fees to recover.
📊 Position overview:
$BTC short 5x: 2,613 coins, opened at 76,343, unrealized loss -10.59 million, funding fees +3.17 million, margin 42.02 million, liquidation price 137,300
$ETH short 5x: 106,400 coins, opened at 2,322, unrealized loss -1.55 million, funding fees +4.3 million, margin 49.74 million, liquidation price 3,723
$SOL short 7x: 719,900 coins, opened at 94.3, unrealized loss -4.77 million, funding fees +3.83 million, margin 10.38 million, liquidation price 302
Total unrealized loss across three positions is about 17 million, with funding fees collected totaling over 11 million to hedge. BTC is losing the most but has the thickest margin, liquidation prices are far away, so short-term it won't die. This guy is playing a long game with thick margin + funding fees, betting on the direction to come back. Holding such large positions at 5-7x leverage, ordinary people should not imitate.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 🌌 Early Wednesday morning, all four coins are waiting for the moment early Thursday morning
$BTC 80,980, 80000 is the largest option strike price 📊 Market makers have placed a large number of hedge orders at 80000. The Fed will hold a press conference early Thursday morning. They just raised rates in September, so it's very likely they won't move this time. But with inflation still high at 3.7%, if the tone is hawkish, 80000 will be tested, so don't hold heavy positions.
$ENA 0.215, high interest rates actually benefit yield-bearing coins 🌾
USDe is collateralized by short-term US Treasury bonds to generate yield. If the Fed is hawkish and maintains high rates longer, the attractiveness of yield-bearing stablecoins increases. This logic is opposite to the expectation of rate cuts, so don't chase simply.
$ASTER 0.704, multi-chain contract DEX is still idle 🛰️
The rules are set but trading volume is only a few hundred thousand dollars. Funds are waiting for the FOMC results. New chains without catalysts get no attention.
$HYPE 77.3, protocol fee dividends are waiting for quarterly settlement 📊
Holding HYPE earns on-chain fee dividends. Trading data is good this week but price doesn't rise, indicating the market is waiting for dividends to be distributed.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $AKE's circulating supply is only a quarter, yet the market cap is so high. When it unlocks someday, a 99% drop would be the real exit scam. This is obviously just shaking out the bulls; there are too many long positions, and both sides are highly leveraged.This week, the US stock market is about to experience an exciting three days.
A number of leading stocks are about to release their earnings reports, and the new season of OKX's US stock earnings prediction battle has also begun.
Actually, accurately predicting earnings beats from start to finish is very difficult. If you base it on the company's operations to guess whether the earnings are good, that's doable. But guessing how the company's accountants will handle the numbers based on Wall Street institutions' EPS forecasts is very hard.
I still just blindly buy Yes. As analyzed before, GAAP data follows accounting standards, and accountants will most likely try to find ways to make EPS meet or even exceed expectations.
Last quarter, SK Hynix's operating profit actually did not meet expectations, but due to large asset sales, it generated significant non-operating income, so EPS beat expectations. However, this quarter is a buildup phase; HBM4 and 1c nanometer process DRAM were launched last quarter, so this quarter should be the growth stage. Although market expectations are not low, this time the earnings report probably won't cause a sharp drop right after release. I also bought some SK Hynix expecting the stock to rise on the earnings release day. This 0.59 feels like a better value, haha.
Robinhood is the opposite. Last quarter's earnings were very good. The expected EPS was about 0.43, but the actual was 0.62. So this quarter's expectations are not very high, expected at 0.56. I bought Yes, but with a relatively small position.$LINK is on my radar after Chainlink launched CustodySync with Anchorage Digital. Institutions can borrow through DeFi while their collateral stays with a qualified custodian. That tackles a real headache for funds with strict custody rules. I like the direction, but I'm waiting for actual loans, repeat borrowers and fees before buying the institutional adoption story. The next thing I want to know: does this bring paying users to Chainlink, and how much of that demand reaches LINK? #HOODQ3TradingGrowth
Q2 beat $0.62 vs $0.43 + $1.31B but fell -3.6% = 4th drop in row. Aug crypto -38% YoY drag, options +50%, events 15x.
Beat needs >$1.5B + margin 42% + Gold growth. Fail <$1.4B = $85 bear.Reviewing the past eight interest rate decision points reveals an intriguing rhythm: the direction often reverses in the week before and the week after the meeting.📉➡️📈
Prices tend to rise before the meeting and fall afterward; sentiment is cooler before the meeting but warms up afterward.🔁
The key is not the news landing itself, but the position adjustments made before the event—many adjustments have already been completed, and prices have priced in in advance.🧠
Rate cuts, holds, rate hikes—these scenarios alternate, yet this "react first, reverse later" mismatch repeatedly appears.👀
Currently, BTC has retraced about 7% before the meeting. The deeper the drop, the more people believe the weakness will continue.🩸
If history repeats itself, there may be another shakeout this week, with a potential rebound next week.🌱
Of course, patterns are just patterns, not guarantees.⚠️The market is showing strong divergence; BTC is oscillating in place, while ZEC is steadily strengthening, approaching 1300. Many wonder if funds are withdrawing from mainstream assets to cluster around privacy-focused projects.
Don't rush to conclude a complete style shift. Currently, two major core events are driving expectations: the upcoming FOMC interest rate decision and the countdown to the Zcash NU7 upgrade.
The Zcash Foundation has released the new version, with the upgrade expected to start on November 5. This upgrade will reduce block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds and introduce a new fee reserve mechanism. The anticipation of this technical upgrade underpins the current strength in ZEC. However, there is a risk that the positive expectations have been priced in early, so it should not be simply regarded as a guarantee of price increase.
Looking at the market separately:
$BTC is currently holding steady at the 80,000 level but has failed multiple times to sustain above 81,000. Incremental funds remain cautious, still waiting for macro guidance to choose a direction.
$ETH is slightly outperforming BTC, testing resistance near 2350. Whether it can break through this level effectively is a signal to judge if its short-term strength can continue.
$ZEC #leading the market gains, very close to the 1300 mark, is a species trading ahead of the upgrade expectations. If it fails to hold after a surge, there is a risk of a pullback due to short-term profit-taking.
In summary: BTC is waiting for macro direction, ETH is testing upper resistance, and ZEC is moving on expected news. The biggest pitfall in trading is treating anticipated positive news as a guaranteed reason for continued price rises. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Conclusion first: $AKE plunged at 23:10 last night, dropping from 0.0291 to 0.0192 in 50 minutes, a 35% decline, while BTC rose 0.3% in the same period, so it wasn't dragged down by the overall market.
1. Three exchanges hit similar lows: Gate 0.019143, KuCoin 0.019229, OKX 0.01924. This was real selling pressure, not a flash crash.
2. From 23:00 to 24:00, OKX perpetual contracts traded 790 million AKE, about 16.7 million USD, 25 times the volume of the previous hour.
3. Funding rates before the drop were positive (settled +0.0256%/4h on 10-27), meaning longs were paying to hold positions. Liquidations were just the trigger; open interest actually rose from 2.89 million to 3.83 million, +32%, indicating some were adding shorts during the drop.
4. OKX has no AKE spot market, only 20x perpetuals; the top 20 buy orders before the drop totaled only 14,000 USD, so market orders were the ammunition.
My judgment: The current price 0.0253 is +32% above the low, indicating short covering rather than a reversal. Market cap is 579 million, FDV 2.489 billion (4.3x), circulating supply only 22.8%, ATH 0.1467, down 82.7%.
If you want to participate, only use spot and only risk what you can afford to lose; do not add leverage on perpetuals. Do you think someone is dumping the market, or is it a natural collapse due to thin order books? $AKESK Hynix is currently trading at about 1,254,000 KRW, up 2.53% intraday, with intraday volatility ranging from 1,171,000 to 1,263,000 KRW, still highly volatile. It has retraced about 56% from the June high, as market concerns over the high financing costs of AI infrastructure outweigh optimism about demand surges. Technically, it is oversold and rebounding but has not confirmed a reversal. After completing a 40 trillion KRW buyback, the support buying disappeared, leveraged ETFs are withdrawing from the market, and short-selling products have dropped as much as 42%. Broker target prices vary widely: Nomura gives 4.7 million KRW, Citi 3 million KRW, RBC 200 USD ADR, all significantly above the current price. All news is focused on the October 28 earnings report. The market expects Q3 revenue of about 98 trillion KRW and operating profit of about 77 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge that has already been priced in. The real variable is shareholder returns: the company is considering an additional 50 to 60 trillion KRW in returns, and there are reports of a special dividend possibly reaching 16 trillion KRW, but the company clearly states no final decision has been made. There are signs that orders for HBM4 back-end equipment may be delayed until next year; Samsung's HBM market share has risen from 21% to 33%, narrowing the gap. Whether the earnings report can provide an above-expectation return plan and visibility on HBM4 is more worth watching than any single indicator.$BTC fell from a high of about $84,000 this week to the low of $79,250 on October 24, then rebounded somewhat. Overall, it showed a pattern of rising first, then falling, and finally stabilizing. On the macro level, with the Federal Reserve's October 28 meeting approaching, market sentiment is cautious.
1️⃣ Long-Short Ratio
The account long-short ratio is about 2.15–2.25 (long positions account for about 68%–69%). Top traders' positions also lean toward longs. Overall, both retail and institutional accounts are dominated by longs but have not reached extreme crowding levels.
2️⃣ Liquidation Data
In the past 7 days, $BTC-related liquidations amounted to about $400 million, with long liquidations accounting for about 74%–76% (approximately $300 million longs vs. about $100 million shorts). A significant long liquidation wave occurred midweek (especially October 22–24), coinciding with the price breaking below $80,000 and hitting the $79,250 low.
3️⃣ CME Position Report
Large speculators hold a net long of 2,418 contracts (a weekly decrease of 116 contracts). Leveraged funds hold a net short of about 4,942 contracts (short positions have decreased). Asset managers hold a net long of about 3,000 contracts. Overall, institutional positions are mixed: speculative funds remain net long, but leveraged funds maintain net shorts.
4️⃣ Summary
This week, the $BTC futures market showed characteristics of "price correction but relatively sticky open interest, continuous positive funding rates, long dominance but obvious mid-term liquidations." After testing the $79,000–$80,000 support zone, the price rebounded, and leverage did not experience deep clearing. $MON current price is 0.02157. I lean bearish, but the real pressure won't come down until after November 17. There are 28 days left until the cliff unlock, and the market is very quiet: contract open interest is only 20 million USD, with just 4 long positions closed in a day, and almost zero trading volume—no one is rushing to exit early. We've backtested unlocks of similar scale; relative weakness against the broader market tends to concentrate in the last seven days before the unlock, with about three-quarters of events closing negative. Judging $MON's rise or fall over these three weeks is not very meaningful. The chart shows higher highs and many candlesticks are bullish, which is a slight push under low liquidity; the unlock is still far away, so the technical pattern temporarily holds. In the last week, holders reducing positions and hedging demand will outweigh this structure. Starting November 17, watch two things: whether open interest significantly expands, and whether $MON starts to weaken relative to the broader market. If that week it holds above 0.0222 and outperforms the market, the bearish view is invalidated. Backtests show no stable direction after the unlock day, so I won't bet on it.Here are 5 professionally logical and self-consistent versions for you to post directly:
*Version 1 - Original Professional Version*
> I hold a long position in SK Hynix, but I chose No for "Will the earnings report exceed expectations?" These two things are not contradictory.
> The long position bets on the memory cycle, while the prediction bets on whether this quarter's report can surpass consensus expectations.
> Why hold a long position? AI servers' demand for HBM and high-end DRAM is still rising. SK Hynix ranks first in HBM, and the stock price follows the logic of "the boom is not over yet." As long as HBM volume expands and DRAM price increases are not falsified, the trend continues.
> Why choose No? Last quarter did not exceed expectations, and this quarter's HBM volume expansion and price increases have already been priced in. Expectations are set too high. The performance can be good, but exceeding expectations is difficult.
> The key points to watch in this earnings report are: HBM shipments and prices, DRAM contract prices, and management's guidance for the next quarter.
*Version 2 - Minimalist Catchphrase Version*
> Holding a long position in SK Hynix, but I choose No for earnings beating expectations, no contradiction.
> Long bets on the cycle; No bets on expectations being too high.
> Bull logic: AI drives HBM + DRAM, SK Hynix leads, the boom cycle is not over.
> No logic: last quarter didn’t beat expectations, this quarter’s positives are priced in, the bar is too high, looks good but hard to beat expectations.
> Three highlights: HBM volume and price, DRAM contract price, next quarter guidance.
*Version 3 - Trading Perspective Version*
> Position: Long SK Hynix, bullish on the memory cycle.
> Prediction: For this quarter’s earnings report, I chooseMainstream coins consolidating sideways, ZEC governance, Udesk security alert, NIP hashrate expansion update
Market Overview
- BTC: fluctuating in the range of about 80,200–80,600U, intraday volatility narrowing, short-term bulls and bears still tugging above $80,000.
- ETH: trading around 2,310–2,360U, slightly weakening intraday with limited amplitude, short-term still lacking a clear breakout direction.
The above is for market reference; real-time prices are subject to exchange order books.
Industry News
- ZEC Governance Adjustment Proposal: Zcash co-founder Sean Bowe submitted a draft suggesting to stop automatically allocating 8% of newly issued ZEC to the community funding program ZCG, and instead direct it to the Network Sustainable Mechanism (NSM); ZCG currently holds about $125 million in reserves and can continue to disburse already committed funding.
- Udesk Customer Service System Security Alert: SlowMist discovered malicious code injected into Udesk customer service scripts, potentially stealing login credentials, tampering with BTC/ETH recharge addresses, and hijacking the clipboard. Addresses should be double-checked through independent channels before transfers.
- NIP Group Increasing Hashrate: This entity continues to acquire mining machines, has deployed hashrate up to 9.66 EH/s, with a full production target of about 11.3 EH/s, expecting a monthly output of approximately 140–150 BTC; the company also retains room to expand into AI computing power support. Both belong to strong sectors, but the trading logic of $ZEC and $VVV is different.
$ZEC｜Shorts are crowded, watch for a breakout
BTC fell below 80,000, but ZEC held around 1240, rising about 2% against the trend in 24 hours. Open interest continues to increase, the retail long-short ratio dropped to 0.85, and short pressure is accumulating. The NU7 upgrade expectation provides a catalyst, but there is a sell wall near 1270 suppressing it; whether it can break through depends on volume. Short squeeze expectations do not guarantee a rise; chasing highs still requires caution.
$VVV｜Unlocking is near, rebound needs confirmation
VVV needs to firmly hold above around $27 to have a better chance to confirm a rebound. The $22–23 area is a key observation zone; supply pressure from unlocking should not be ignored.
One is waiting for shorts to cover, the other is testing unlocking pressure. Trading rhythms differ, so position management cannot be copied.
This week's FOMC rate decision is approaching, macro volatility may increase; first watch for signals, then decide direction.
#ZEC #VVV #BTC #CryptoMarket
#OctFOMCDecisionThisWeek On-chain data for $DOGE shows that since mid-October, whales have cumulatively increased their holdings by about 600 million DOGE around the 0.08 level, with cost zones concentrated in this area.
Technically, 0.0736 is a short-term key support; if it holds, a rebound and consolidation may occur. However, if the daily close effectively breaks below this level, the next support will be lower. The real test on the upside is at 0.087, which has shifted from support to resistance. Over the past week, bulls and bears have repeatedly contested this level, and without volume support, it will be difficult to reclaim.
Regarding suppressive factors, the overall liquidity in the Meme sector continues to decline, with its market cap proportion of the total altcoin market falling to a historic low. Capital is more inclined toward sectors with genuine narratives.
On the macro front, the Federal Reserve is very likely to keep interest rates unchanged this time, but the probability of a rate hike in December has risen above 68%. The market is trading on a "hawkish pause," not a shift to easing. $BTC is repeatedly tugging at the 80,000 level; with Bitcoin unstable, DOGE will find it hard to strengthen independently.
Objective conclusion: This is currently a left-side game, not a right-side confirmation. If you want to participate, wait for at least one of three signals: DOGE daily closes back above and holds 0.08, BTC holds 80,000 without making new lows, or there is volume-supported buying around 0.0736. If none of these occur, watching more and acting less is more cost-effective than rushing to bottom-fish. Position control is more important than directional judgment.$CORE The four phenomena you observed point to a very dangerous critical point currently facing the CORE ecosystem. Among them, the decline in the number of Bitcoins and the sharp decrease in nodes are driven by two completely different logics operating simultaneously. 🔍 Why are there only 1184 Bitcoins left? Misunderstandings and truths about cross-chain bridges First, a key technical concept needs to be clarified, which is also the most common confusion in the community: · CLTV self-custody staking: This is the "Bitcoin staking" method primarily promoted by CORE. Your BTC is locked on the Bitcoin mainnet through a time lock and does not go through a cross-chain bridge. Upon expiration, theoretically, it can be unlocked directly on the Bitcoin network without project approval. · coreBTC wrapped token: This is a wrapped asset that maps BTC 1:1 onto the CORE chain via a cross-chain bridge. The portion of coreBTC that is "stuck" and cannot be redeemed depends on the operation of the cross-chain bridge. Therefore, the reduction in the amount of staked native BTC is likely due to some users whose CLTV time locks have expired and who have normally retrieved their assets through the Bitcoin network. This itself does not directly prove that the cross-chain bridge has been restored. The core issue is that the redemption channel for coreBTC remains blocked. In early 2026, users still reported redemption failures on the official forum, with only burn records on the CORE chain provided and no transfer IDs on the Bitcoin mainnet as proof of receipt. 🏛️ Nodes sharply reduced to 13: Network security has reached a critical point The 13 active nodes you see represent an extremely dangerous signalWhat is truly easy to overlook is not the $1.1 billion options expiration, but that everyone automatically equates "expiration" with "amplified volatility." Is this week's risk really just about a cluster of events? Watching BTC hover around 80,000 these past few days feels more like a test of leverage patience. It barely bounced up to 84,600 before sliding back to the starting point; this kind of movement itself is eroding the confidence of bulls. On Friday, about $11 billion nominal value of Bitcoin options expire, combined with the Fed's rate decision on Wednesday and US GDP and PCE data on Thursday, the calendar is indeed packed, but what the market is really trading is whether to deleverage before the events. The bullish path isn't complicated: holding 80,000, especially reclaiming 82,000, indicates selling pressure is absorbed, and there’s a short-term chance to test 84,000 again. Squeezing shorts depends on spot not dragging behind. But the fragile point is clear: if 80,000 is lost again, 76,000 becomes the next level to test. Market makers adjusting positions and funding rate swings around options expiration can easily amplify such a breakdown into an emotional dip. My own understanding is that this week the focus shouldn't just be on news headlines but on the reaction of open interest and funding rates: if price moves sideways but leverage drops first, that’s healthy; if after news hits funding rates heat up quickly but price doesn’t follow, that’s a divergence to watch out for. The derivatives structure now feels like a tightly stretched string; before direction is chosen, volatility itself is a cost. So this week I’m especially controlling contract leverage, preferring to wait for 82,000 to hold Do you really understand the BNB Standard bell-ringing? An in-depth analysis of BNC
BNB Standard, holding over 510,000 binancecoin:native ( $BNC ), rang the bell at Nasdaq on October 26. This company can be understood as the Strategy ( $MSTR ) in the BNB treasury field, raising funds through a listed company to buy and hold BNB, allowing US stock investors to participate in BNB price changes through stocks.
BNC was formerly called CEA Industries, originally engaged in environmental control equipment and e-cigarette retail. After completing a $500 million financing led by YZi Labs in August 2025, it began executing the BNB treasury strategy, and the stock code was changed to BNC. In September this year, it was officially renamed BNB Standard, so this bell-ringing celebrates the renaming and the appointment of a new CEO, not a re-IPO.
In terms of asset scale, according to disclosures at the end of July, the company held 515,544 BNB, accounting for about 92.4% of total assets at that time (also holding a small amount of bitcoin:native and USDT).
Unlike other treasury companies, BNC, due to holding a large amount of BNB, can earn income from the Binance ecosystem, such as airdrops from @binance's Launchpool and HODLer Airdrop, which become BNC's revenue. The most recent disclosed quarter confirmed $284,000 in airdrop income and $1.1 million in management fees. (The management fee issue will be discussed later.)
Looking at historical data, the previous fiscal year disclosed a total airdrop income of about $7.9 million, part of which was converted into 4,932 BNB, valued at about $5.8 million at the time of conversion. Some airdrop income was not clearly stated whether it was converted. From my personal perspective, I suggest converting all airdrops into USD, and after deducting management fees, the remainder can be converted into BNB. Because the previous fiscal year also had $5 million in management fees (about $4.6 million paid, about $400,000 unpaid as of the annual report settlement date).
Here is some gossip: BNC's external asset manager, 10X Capital Partners LLC, was hired when BNC launched the BNB treasury strategy in 2025 to manage BNB treasury assets. David Namdar, the initial CEO of BNC, is a senior partner at 10X, and another 10X founder, Hans Thomas, also served as a BNC director.
According to the asset management agreement signed by both parties, 10X provides management and related services for BNC's digital asset treasury, and BNC pays management fees based on the value of assets under the treasury strategy. The quarterly disclosed fee rate is annualized 1.4%. At project launch, YZi and 10X also signed a strategic service agreement, where YZi provides strategic consulting to 10X and receives a portion of 10X's management fees according to the agreement.
Later, disputes arose; YZi stated it terminated this agreement in December 2025, and BNC stated in March 2026 that 10X no longer shares fees with YZi under this agreement. Now BNC believes the 10X fee rate, 20-year term, and early termination clauses are unfavorable to shareholders and has sued to invalidate the agreement.
According to the latest quarterly disclosure, BNC has not terminated the agreement, suspended payment of invoiced management fees after April 10, 2026, but continues to accrue them.
Back to the main topic, although the management fee issue is not fully resolved, compared to other treasury listed companies, BNC already has a very clear profit plan, supported not only by the Binance ecosystem but also planning to operate BNB Chain validator nodes, which is also a good source of income.
Of course, there are some points to note. According to the company's dashboard quote on October 26, BNC's mNAV is about 0.74, a discount of about 26% relative to adjusted net asset value per share. This means the market currently values the company below its disclosed adjusted net asset value.
In plain terms, based on the company's disclosed holdings at the end of July and the price on the afternoon of October 26 Eastern Time, the value of BNB held by BNC is about $383 million, while the market capitalization of BNC based on issued common shares is about $260 million. From these two figures alone, the value of BNB held by the company exceeds the stock market value.
That is to say, assuming BNB price, company assets and liabilities, and diluted shares remain unchanged in the future, and the market is willing to reprice BNC from 0.74 times mNAV to 1 time, the stock price has about 35% upside potential.
PS: Does anyone know why @cz_binance went to ring the bell?
According to the SEC ownership filing submitted on September 21, 2026, YZi Labs holds 9,749,745 shares of BNC, about 20% of the then common shares. CZ is the sole director of the filing entity YZi Labs Management Ltd.
Reposted from PhyrexA signal that didn't follow the system later rose, but that doesn't mean you should chase it next time. My personal market observation is: don't reverse-engineer rules based on outcomes, especially in narrow-range oscillations, where occasional realized rebounds most easily tempt people to relax their criteria.
Rego mentioned that even though some short-term triggers have moved upward, they haven't met the coordination required by his system, so he still chooses to reduce risk and temporarily stay out. His explanation of indicator arrangements and false signals belongs to the original judgment; I won't write it off as the market having proven no strength, nor will I blindly adopt unverified success probabilities.
Kraken's public quote is about $80,462, with a 24-hour high near $80,566. I will wait for the upper boundary to be broken, then for the close to hold and a pullback to be supported before adjusting my view of not chasing the rise; if it spikes up then falls back into the original range and fails to close above, the breakout hypothesis is invalid. If it falls below $80,000 again, I will first withdraw and revise expectations.
My comprehensive judgment is that good rules can miss market moves, and bad positions can occasionally make money; the two should not be confused. Project catalysts have not yet completed public verification, so I don't treat scattered profit-taking updates as new opportunities. When facing missed rebounds, do you first check if the rules are still valid or wait for the next occurrence under the same conditions? This is only a personal observation and does not constitute investment advice.This week, pay close attention to the 11 billion BTC options settlement, which might have a bigger impact than the FOMC.
This options contract expires on Friday. The Fed meeting on the 29th is unlikely to change interest rates; it depends on whether the speech leans hawkish and the PCE inflation data. Lower inflation is favorable for ZEC. These are all just speculative expectations, but the options settlement will have a real impact on the market.
There are many positions stacked above 83,000. When the price reaches this area, market makers hedging will cause big swings in the market. Once it leaves this range, the market tends to decline.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ Google Cloud Q2 revenue reached $24.8 billion, up 82% year-over-year, with operating margin rising from 20.7% to 35.6%, indicating improved efficiency in AI investment returns.
But the cost is also evident: capital expenditures doubled year-over-year to $44.9 billion, free cash flow turned negative for the first time at -$5.9 billion, and the full-year capex guidance was raised to $195–205 billion.
Whether returns can be sustained depends on two anchors: a backlog of $514 billion and a quarter-on-quarter new addition of $52 billion, with an expected conversion rate slightly above 50% over the next 24 months; TPU delivers about 50% better performance per dollar than B200 under low concurrency inference, serving as a structural source of margin improvement.
A risk point is customer concentration—UBS estimates that by 2027, OpenAI and Anthropic may contribute about 48% of Google Cloud's revenue, and neither company is currently profitable. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ - Short term (Q3): HBM4 is not a performance savior; this quarter's profits rely more on price increases of HBM3E+ and regular DRAM; HBM4's contribution is limited.
- Mid to long term (Q4→2027): HBM4 is the core profit engine. If customers' AI chips are successfully launched and capacity ramps up smoothly, the high-margin HBM4 will continuously optimize the product structure and keep driving profit growth.
- Risk points: Slowdown in AI customers' capital expenditure, competitive pricing, and yield ramp-up below expectations may all delay the realization of HBM profits.$BTC The lowest closing price in 20 trading days, but RSI has risen from 36 back to 42.
▪️ 10/26 closed at 80,150.56, down 3.53 USD from the previous day
▪️ 20-day closing percentile 0%, lowest within the window
▪️ RSI 42.29, previous day 36.02, up 6.27 points in two days
▪️ Consecutive decline for 5 trading days, -2.18% in 7 days, -5.07% in 30 days
▪️ 1.17% above the 30-day low, 8.82% below the high, ratio of 7.5 times
▪️ 30-day range width 10.10%, 20-day moving average 2.34% above
▪️ 200-day moving average 73,029.59 is 9.75% below
Indicator recovery and price recovery are two different things. RSI rising from 36.02 to 42.29 while the closing price hits the lowest in 20 trading days — a flattening slope causes RSI to rebound without the price actually increasing.
Position is at the bottom of the range: 1.17% from the lower boundary, 8.82% from the upper boundary. The 90-day position is 71.16%, a large gap between the two windows.
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ $DOGE bulls are still holding on, but the market is clearly leaning bearish.
In the past 24 hours, long positions liquidated $290,000, while short positions only $50,000. The price dropped just 0.56%, yet longs continue to be liquidated, indicating leveraged positions are quite fragile.
Currently, DOGE is at 0.07666, close to the intraday low of 0.07656. Trading volume is light, moving averages are bearish, and if the previous low breaks, further downside cannot be ruled out.
To reverse the situation, it needs to at least reclaim 0.07822 and observe if liquidation direction changes. Until then, I lean towards cautious bearishness and am not rushing to bottom-fish.
$DOGE
#DOGE #Crypto
#OctFOMCDecisionThisWeek #Ripple获美国国家信托银行最终批准 $XRP The approved license is a trust charter, without deposit-taking or lending.
▪️ Conditional approval was given on 12/12 last year, today is the final approval
▪️ The entity is Ripple National Trust Bank, handling custody, payments, and RLUSD
▪️ The license allows application for a Federal Reserve master account, directly connecting to Fedwire clearing
▪️ RLUSD is $2.43 billion, ranked 9th among stablecoins
▪️ USDT plus USDC account for 84.7%, totaling $256 billion
▪️ The queue already includes Anchorage, Circle, BitGo, Paxos
▪️ Circle’s stock price rose over 13% on the day of final approval on 7/10
What changed is the regulatory level, not the business scope. Under the state trust license, RLUSD is a state-issued coin; under the federal trust bank, it is issued by a federal regulatory agency.
What was unlocked is the clearing channel: the master account can directly access the Federal Reserve payment system, no longer routing through correspondent banks. This value is not reflected in RLUSD’s current $2.43 billion. XRP did not rise that day — this license does not require buying XRP.#富兰克林邓普顿推出美股股息买BTC新型ETF
Dividends are not paid in cash; on the next trading day after the ex-dividend date, Bitcoin is directly purchased at the open.
▪️ FBEQ tracks the broad market with a 0.09% fee, FIBT tracks growth with a 0.19% fee, both listed on Nasdaq
▪️ Form 8-A filed on 10/22, prospectus effective 10/27
▪️ Initially 95% US stocks and 5% Bitcoin, index compiled by VettaFi
▪️ Does not hold spot Bitcoin, buys ETPs (including its own EZBC), futures, and options
▪️ Forced sell if quarter-end weight exceeds 5%, cut back to 4.5%
▪️ Hard cap at 20% during the period, must close positions within two business days, also cut back to 4.5%
5% is the upper limit, not the allocation. What’s transformed is the DRIP slot: instead of traditional dividend reinvestment buying the stock itself, here it buys Bitcoin, reducing friction to zero—this is the term Nate Geraci uses.
Two forced liquidation lines turn it into a pipeline with a buyback valve. If Bitcoin outperforms US stocks, it will be cut at quarter-end; reaching a 20% weight requires about a 4.75x increase, and must be closed back to 4.5% within two days. Dividend yield is not high, short-term buying is limited, the value lies in the channel itself.