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In the past three days, BTC has hovered above 80,000 without moving, and the whole market has had only one topic: the Federal Reserve early Thursday morning. Everyone is waiting for that moment—as if once the clock strikes, the direction will automatically emerge.
This afternoon, the market gave the answer in advance.
BTC broke below 80,000, currently at 79,674; ETH is clinging to the edge of 2,300, at 2,305; SOL is the hardest hit, losing triple digits directly, at 99.7.
Ironically, during the three days of sideways movement, the phrase "the longer the consolidation, the stronger the breakout" was repeatedly quoted, and everyone assumed the breakout would be upward.
But what will happen on the fourth day of consolidation?
Those wanting to buy the dip had already maxed out their positions three days ago; they are now the market's existing holders, not new entrants. Those wanting to short were cut early by the dull knife of consolidation and exited the market. What remains is the most dangerous group: they look at the candlesticks and think, "It’s been sideways for so long, how much lower can it go?" So they heavily bet, confidently waiting for Thursday’s data to wrap things up for them.
The market specializes in taking in this kind of confidence.
Breaking below 80,000 is not just crossing a round number in price; it also shatters the psychological defense line of "how much lower can it go?" Once the defense line breaks, below lies the liquidation map: BTC has two long positions lying at 79,200 and 78,800, and even bigger ones stacked at 77,200 and 76,600; ETH’s are lined up at 2,282 and 2,242; SOL’s 9.69 million long positions hang just above 98.
The main event early Thursday morning will not be canceled because of today’s drop. But the market’s direction has never grown out of the news; it grows out of liquidation prices.
The news is just the finger pulling the trigger. And the gun barrel has long been aimed at those fully invested, waiting for the data. Before the rate decision on the 29th, I am more cautious about another dip but not ruling out a rebound.
After 18:00, BTC briefly dipped to 79,505, ETH dropped to around 2,298, then both pulled back. The rebound is not weak, but the hourly charts for both coins still haven't reclaimed the upper resistance. Because there are buyers when prices fall and the pullback doesn't hold, I am not in a hurry to conclude which side has won yet.
Spot snapshot at 20:12 Beijing time: BTC around 79,900, ETH around 2,315. My main judgment is: before the rate decision announcement on the 29th, still expect a retest of tonight's lows. BTC target 79,505–79,455, ETH target 2,301–2,293; this is a zone formed by new lows, 24-hour lows, and 4-hour previous lows, not just arbitrary round numbers. If prices truly break below, the lows could be deeper than this support layer; but if one or two hourly candles quickly recover, I prefer to see a short dip followed by a rebound rather than a continuous decline.
This judgment has boundaries: if BTC closes hourly above 80,175 and ETH above 2,326, and the pullback holds, my bearish bias is invalidated; if two consecutive hourly closes fall below 79,455 and 2,293, the "short dip" view must be withdrawn. The meeting may amplify volatility but cannot be used to explain today's decline. To say the market has stabilized, I want to see a clear full daily candle reclaiming lost ground and not giving it back afterward.
$BTC $ETH For conditional observation only, be aware of volatility risks. #US-Iran discuss Hormuz Strait reopening plan, oil prices fall
Will this impact the macroeconomy and cause $BTC to drop?
The drop in oil prices due to expectations of the Hormuz Strait reopening does not directly negatively affect BTC; from a macro perspective, it is marginally positive but insufficient to reverse the current weakness.
The transmission path is: oil price decline → easing inflation pressure → relaxation of Federal Reserve rate hike constraints. The September CPI energy component rose 20.4% year-on-year, with high oil prices being a key driver of persistent inflation. If the strait truly reopens and oil prices continue to fall, it will create conditions for the Fed to pause rate hikes later. However, the Fed is very likely to take a "hawkish pause" in October, with about an 80% chance of a rate hike in December; the policy turning point has not yet arrived.
Currently, BTC's main pressure is risk aversion sentiment, not oil prices. On October 27, BTC still hovered below $80,000, with traders awaiting inflation, GDP data, and the Fed decision. Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of about $314 million in October.
More importantly, the US-Iran negotiations themselves are fragile. Iran previously denied nearing an agreement, causing oil prices to reverse sharply. If talks break down and oil prices rebound, macro pressures will increase again. In short, the oil price decline is a "nice-to-have" for BTC but unlikely to be a "lifeline" before Fed uncertainties are resolved.Staring at the screen for a long time, I suddenly feel this market is quite darkly humorous.
Today's biggest bearish factor is not some macro data, nor the Federal Reserve, but "our own people" running first.
Arthur Hayes casually said on X, "I sold everything," and casually dumped 6,400 ETH worth $15.2 million. He said it very bluntly: "The market has to fall first before it can rise again."
What’s even more intriguing is that a wallet associated with the Ethereum Foundation sold 2,785 ETH on CoW Swap today at an average price of $2,304, cashing out $6.42 million and immediately converting it into stablecoins.
The project team itself is cashing out at this point, while retail investors are still staring at the candlestick charts waiting for a "bullish rebound."
The ETF side is even more straightforward. On October 27, the US spot Ethereum ETF had a single-day net outflow of $88.58 million, with BlackRock’s ETHA alone withdrawing $104.71 million, setting a record for the largest single-day outflow.
Throughout October, Ethereum ETFs have seen cumulative outflows exceeding $1 billion, more than three times the outflow scale of Bitcoin ETFs.
This is not a technical correction. This is capital voting with its feet.
As for my short position, the average price is 2,583, current price 2,307, floating profit 1069%. The forced liquidation price is far away at 2,779, with more than four hundred dollars in between. You are heavily buying near 2,300,
The game you’re playing is "it should rebound after falling too much"; I’m holding a small position, playing the game of "which direction the money is flowing."
Below is $2,209 #SK 79.6% of Bitcoin is still held by individuals.
Bitcoin is the only major asset still controlled by individuals.
River's chart breaks it down clearly. Among the tradable Bitcoin, individuals hold 79.6%, while funds and ETFs combined only have 8.5%. Individuals hold more than 9 times what institutions do.
Bonds, stocks, and gold have been dominated by institutions for hundreds of years. Bitcoin is different; after more than a decade, the majority is still in the hands of individuals.
Why can ETF flows of just one or two hundred million dollars cause such a stir? Because the 8.5% held by institutions is active money moving in and out of the market daily, while the 79.6% held by individuals mostly stays put. The real driver of daily price changes is the flow of active money, not the size of the total holdings.
River says this will change in the future. Institutional share will only increase, slowly following gold's old path.
But that is a slow-moving variable. Today's structure remains unchanged.
Bitcoin is the only major asset still controlled by individuals. $WLD perpetual 50x short position, opened at 0.4465, currently at 0.4336, floating profit +144.45%.
The idea is very straightforward: a top consolidation with volume but stagnant price, volatility compressed to the extreme, indicating chips are ready to be distributed. A single high-volume bearish candle smashed the price down from 0.4465, a typical breakdown signal, shorting is favored over longing. 50x leverage. The trend goes straight down, giving no comfortable exit point, profits take off directly.
At this position, I plan to take half the position off the table first, and move the stop loss of the remaining half to 0.44 to let profits run. If 0.42 breaks down with volume, I will continue holding; if it can't fall further, I will close all positions. $ETH $DOOD #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #Can Robinhood's trading business growth continue? #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
I bought the "No" on this Google deal.
The market is asking: can diluted GAAP EPS be higher than $3.10? Currently about Yes 61¢, No 43¢. Analysts' consensus estimates mostly range from $2.94 to $3.03, so the threshold is a bit higher than consensus, meaning my position isn't large; just testing the idea, not betting heavily.
Why buy No:
Contracts only recognize GAAP numbers; no matter how good the cloud and AI story looks, it doesn't directly count.
To win Yes, EPS must exceed 3.10. Even if it slightly beats consensus, it might not reach 3.10, so the result is still No.
Yes is already near 60¢; many think it will pass; I prefer to bet "it's not that easy to exceed 3.10."
Risks are also clear: last quarter GAAP was boosted heavily by equity investment gains. If that happens again this quarter, EPS could easily exceed 3.10, and No would lose. $BEAT 1. Early stage (June–August) stabilized at ~770k/week, market trading "revenue flywheel, weekly burn"
2. Maintained a range of 750k–850k for most of September, no significant volume increase;
3. This latest week (10.26) jumped to 1,245k, burn accelerated; At 8 PM Beijing time, $BTC is priced at $79,861, down 0.66% in 24 hours, with a funding rate of 0.0013% per hour; the Fear and Greed Index is 48, indicating neutrality. Among contracts with a trading volume over $20 million, CHIP leads with an 11.75% increase.
I run a small company, so when I see this market, I first calculate input versus output: my judgment is that this is not yet a full recovery, more like localized excitement. BTC, ETH, and SOL have all declined in the past 24 hours; a single contract performing well cannot be taken as evidence that the entire market is thriving.
Cash flow must also be considered. BTC’s funding rate is positive, so if holding a long position and the rate remains unchanged, the position incurs ongoing funding costs. The direction hasn’t emerged yet, but costs are accumulating—similar to a store not selling much but still paying rent. Focusing only on the gain leaderboard can easily cause you to overlook this calculation.
Risk reserves are another matter. Neutral index does not mean low risk, nor does it tell me how large localized fluctuations might be. I prefer to view reserved margin as an operating cost rather than idle money wasted; this is my risk assessment, not a prediction of future price movements.
For friends in business, if you treat this kind of fragmented market as taking a new order, how would you set aside risk reserves: based on expected returns, or based on the worst loss you can bear?$BTC today's "ECG" review: the line is straight, but people are lying down.
BTC intraday volatility is 1.68%, ETH 3.16%, the market is as flat as the Monday morning rush hour subway; yet there are $728 million liquidations underwater, 196,000 people taken out, with bulls accounting for 84%.
More excitingly, a whale holding nearly $400 million in BTC+ETH long positions saw the ETH position once approach the liquidation line, topping up 9.21 million USDC at dawn to stay alive. In the past 30 days, retail investors transferred $10.75 billion BTC into Binance, while whale inflows were only $3.8 billion.
The straighter the line, the easier it is for people to let their guard down; retail investors are rushing in, but the big players have already started packing up.👀 3 overlooked assets! The underlying logic is quietly reversing
$HYPE 77 📊
Core highlight of Hyperliquid on-chain exchange: trading fees are redistributed to token holders.
This week's on-chain trading data is impressive, but the price remains stagnant as the market awaits the protocol dividend rollout. At the 77 level, holders await dividends, short-term funds await inflows, and both bulls and bears are temporarily watching.
$ENA 0.21 🌾
Interest-bearing stablecoins and regular stablecoins are fundamentally different. USDe is backed by a basket of short-term U.S. Treasuries, earning Treasury yields, unlike the zero-yield USDT.
Many think rate cuts directly benefit it, but there's a hidden pitfall: once rate cuts take effect, short-term bond yields fall, reducing USDe's interest income. It cannot be simply treated as a beneficiary of rate cuts.
$WLD 0.476 🌐
Worldcoin's core is to provide an "identity verification layer" for AI. The app's user base has grown for consecutive quarters, but the token price hasn't risen accordingly, and the market still questions its value realization potential. Privacy controversies persist, and the 0.476 level shows significant divergence—avoid heavy positions.
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ There is a metronome in Dogecoin's K-line: one year up, one year down, one year grinding, a three-year cycle. In 2021, +2901%, 2022, -59%, 2023, +27% completed recovery; 2024, +244%, 2025, -64%, 2026 so far -25.6%. The rhythm of the second cycle is following the footsteps of the first, currently in the "grinding" phase.
The decline is the clearest signal. Nearly 60% retracement in 2022, turning positive in 2023; this round narrowed from -64% to -25.6%, selling pressure is retreating, chips are $ETH 麻吉大哥25倍ETH多单刚被清算，账户只剩5357美元，累计亏损已经到3537万美元。结果气都没喘，又开25倍ETH多单，上了50个ETH。到底是真觉得这里见底，还是赌到不肯认输？Trading volume is only 3.4% of market cap: What liquidity level does this represent?
Looking at Dogecoin's trading volume and market cap together: 24-hour trading volume is $410 million, market cap is $12.1 billion, with the former being only 3.4% of the latter. This turnover rate is relatively low.
What does a low turnover rate mean? The straightforward interpretation is light trading activity, with tokens not moving much. A deeper implication is price vulnerability: when market depth is insufficient, the same amount of capital causes larger price swings. In a highly active market with high turnover, large trades are absorbed by dense order books; in a market with a 3.4% turnover, large inflows and outflows are more likely to leave price traces. Normally this doesn't matter, but when the market moves, it acts as an amplifier.
Of course, low turnover can also be interpreted differently: holders are reluctant to sell. High token lock-up means lighter selling pressure, and price support below is more solid. The same data can indicate liquidity risk during a downtrend, but during sideways movement it proves token stability. Currently, $DOGE is closer to the latter — after a pullback, trading volume contracts, indicating most sellers have already sold. What to watch next is whether trading volume can moderately expand as price stabilizes; that would be a confirmation signal of capital returning.#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ This time I went all in on $GOOGL, betting on earnings beating expectations! 🧐
Breaking it down, Google's core business has three main parts:
First, cloud business. Q3 is expected at $29 billion, basically locked in to beat expectations. In October, they signed a $22.4 billion computing power cooperation contract with OpenAI, in June a $30 billion computing power deal with SpaceX, plus the Gemini series and their own TPU chip shipments, so this segment is relatively stable. Latest data shows Google Cloud's backlog has reached $513.9 billion, with future fulfillment demand set to explode!
Second, search advertising. Grew 17% in Q2, AI features driving search query volume, AI also improving ad matching, so this segment's above-expectation growth is quite certain, as seen from Meta's recent earnings report.
Third, YouTube and streaming ecosystem monetization. YouTube ads + subscriptions, plus the rapidly growing Shorts short video commercialization, also a stable cash flow source!
One more point, latest Bank of America forecast shows Google's Q3 depreciation and amortization around $8 billion, below the market expectation of $8.9 billion. This alone can greatly improve profit performance!
Let's wait and see! 🤔 The market isn't great now, participate more in OKX events to share $250,000 in rewards, come join me! 🔥 Let's calculate: this message still can't estimate how much new settlement volume USDC can add, as the material lacks amounts and transaction counts. On October 27, ACI Worldwide and Circle announced a partnership targeting Latin America, demonstrating how USDC settlement can integrate into existing banking and payment systems. I tend to see this as a positive development in infrastructure, but it can't yet be considered a report card of scaled implementation.
① What is clear now is that the cooperation was announced on October 27, but there is no actual processing volume data. The announcement date can only mark a progress milestone, not prove that business growth has already occurred.
② The material does not provide the number of banks connected; the focus is on integration with existing systems. If banks and payment institutions can continue using their original processes, then adoption resistance might be lower. This is why I am optimistic about this path, not because it has been validated.
③ The material also does not provide changes in settlement time or costs. For ordinary users, whether or not to use USDC is less important than whether the funds arrive faster and fees are lower. Technical integration still needs to pass the experience test.
My judgment is that such cooperation is more significant for payment infrastructure than as an explanation for short-term market trends. I will continue to monitor actual processing volume and costs, rather than raising expectations just because of the "partnership." When evaluating stablecoin payments, what do people usually value most: settlement volume, arrival speed, or fees?$BTC $ETH Profit taken as planned, income secured!
At noon, the short position on BTC set at 80300 hit the target of 79400 and successfully took profit! This move was completely expected.
This morning, a fan saw a post from Xin Jie and asked if there were any trades to operate now. Xin Jie then recommended a long position on Ethereum accordingly.
According to the latest news, signals of easing have come from the Middle East. Iran has stated conditions for a ceasefire, ending the current conflict without further escalation, and the cooling of the conflict is expected to boost market sentiment. Currently, mainstream markets have been very sluggish, so this news is one of the few positives and may stimulate a rally at the US stock market open.
Recently, institutions have been continuously selling off, so there won't be a big surge in the short term, but this long position can definitely capture a wave, so my personal trading suggestion: go long at the current price of 2314 with a target of 2338.
【The above views are for personal reference only and do not constitute investment advice】
#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 $SKHYNIX
I hold a long position in SK Hynix, but I chose No for the question "Will this quarter's earnings beat expectations?" These two things are not contradictory: the long position bets on the memory cycle, while the prediction bets on whether this quarter's report can exceed consensus expectations.
First, why hold the long position. AI servers' demand for HBM and high-end DRAM is still rising, and SK Hynix is at the forefront of HBM supply. The recent stock price reflects the market's view that "the boom is not over yet." As long as HBM volume growth and DRAM price increases are not disproven, the trend remains.
Now, why choose No. Last quarter, it did not deliver numbers that beat expectations, and this quarter, the volume growth and price increases of HBM have already been priced in, raising the bar very high. The performance itself can be good, but exceeding such high expectations is much harder. For this earnings report, I mainly focus on three points: HBM shipments and prices, DRAM contract price trends, and management's guidance for the next quarter.The full profile for October 29th hasn't been unfolded yet, but the embedded parts have already exposed the stress direction—the preliminary operating profit of Samsung Electronics has surged year-on-year. This is not just a facade paint job; it's the first settlement observation record submitted by the main structure before topping out.
In our line of work, to judge whether a building will stand, we never look at the renderings; we only look at three things: the bearing capacity of the load-bearing layer, the grade of the concrete, and the hoisting rhythm of the prefabricated components. Applied to this industry chain, the load-bearing layer is the continuously increasing storage demand, the grade is the pricing curve of storage chips, and the hoisting rhythm is the shipment ramp-up of the fourth-generation high-bandwidth stacked products. When all three rise in the same direction, profit growth has structural significance; otherwise, it's just a temporary support frame with a few extra steel pipes inserted, which will have to be dismantled overnight when the wind picks up.
The storage demand driven by artificial intelligence is the real load-bearing wall in this round of construction. But remember a common sense: when the load-bearing wall is removed, the building doesn't slowly deform; it breaks brittlely. So what really needs to be looked at is not the pretty facade number of year-on-year profit, but the reinforcement ratio of the segmented profits—whether the money earned from storage has actually been used to fill the void in the foundry business. If it has, this is a reasonable load transfer; if not, it means using the main building's concrete to pour the landscape pool of the podium building, which will never show problems on the blueprints but will be hollow when tapped during acceptance.
Then look at the linkage of the US stock mapped target. The fluctuations of $xCRCL are like the curtain wall glass reflecting the outline of the opposite high-rise—you can read the volume from the reflection but can't feel its column grid. The reflection is always half a beat slower than the entity and is more easily rewritten by a cloud. Using the reflection as the foundation for layout is the most common mistake made by outsiders, and such errors are usually only discovered when the main structure tops out, by which time the rework cost is irreversible.
What should be more wary of is the funding side. When the financing spread of computing power capital expenditure starts to widen, it means diagonal cracks have appeared on the shear wall. Cracks won't immediately cause the building to collapse but will redistribute the stiffness of the entire structure: if the construction period is extended, equipment orders are delayed, and the support surface of storage pricing loosens accordingly. The profit statement is the completion acceptance certificate, but financing cost is the construction permit; using the acceptance certificate to prove the permit is valid is logically reversed.
I only recognize one thing: overlay the three curves of financing cost, chip pricing, and shipment ramp-up on the same construction diagram; the area below the intersection is the part of the building that can truly be sold. #samsungq3profitoutlookConclusion first: $CHIP rose about 12% in 24 hours today, but what’s really worth noting isn’t the rise, it’s that three groups of people got trapped in one day.
Breaking down the rhythm. From 10-26 22:00 to 27 01:00, the price surged from 0.0482 to 0.05722, +18.7%; that one 1-hour candle traded $6.66 million, 6 times the median of the other hours in the 24-hour period. Then 16 consecutive 1H candles declined slowly, bottoming at 0.04982, a 12.9% retracement. At 19:00 it pulled back to around 0.0535.
The key is in open interest: at 03:00 it peaked at $4.22 million, then dropped steadily to $3.47 million, down 18%. Price fell, open interest fell too—not because shorts were pressing, but because longs were closing their positions.
Looking at the order book: OKX perpetual contracts traded $39.67 million in 24 hours, while spot CHIP-USDT only $2.5 million, a 16x difference. The top 20 buy orders in perpetuals total only $14,000, spot is $36,000. This volume was made in a very shallow liquidity pool.
By the way, USD.AI locked $266 million TVL on Arbitrum, more than double $CHIP’s $103 million market cap. There are users on-chain, but the coin price is misleading.
Did you buy at 0.0572, 0.0505, and 0.0535 today? $CHIPHow does the $BCH payment narrative prove that it is not just the consensus of existing holders? It requires joint verification through merchant settlements, on-chain transfers, and sustainable liquidity. If the market only discusses payments during price rebounds, the actual demand may not have increased; changes in risk appetite before the FOMC will still dominate short-term prices. If payment usage and transaction volume expand simultaneously, the logic is strengthened; if activity does not improve, I would consider it a cyclical trading asset.I prefer to view this news as a change in the bank payment entry point rather than just another positive development in the crypto space. Where stablecoins go is not only about who issues more of them, but also about who can integrate them into everyday business.
According to PANews citing The Block, the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) is encouraging U.S. community banks to consider applying under the GENIUS Act to become authorized stablecoin issuers, aiming to expand their role in digital payments. The key phrase here is "encouraging applications," not that approval has already been granted or issuance has begun. I think this distinction should not be overlooked.
What I value is that community banks already connect local customers and businesses. If these relationships can be converted into stablecoin payment scenarios, then the focus of competition might shift from circulation within the crypto market to real commercial settlement. This is my speculation, not a result that has already been realized.
But having an entry point does not equal having profitable business to do. If compliance and operational costs are too high, even if small banks get the ticket to enter, they may not be willing to participate. For ordinary users, having more issuers does not automatically mean better usability; the smoothness of exchange is the real experience.
I will put this news on my watchlist but will not write a victory speech for it yet; what I want to see next is whether the willingness to apply can turn into actual services.It now feels more like a game after chasing a rise, not a comfortable zone for chasing longs. Are you also itching to act after that bullish candle? My strongest feeling while watching the market is: bad news is there, but the price refuses to fall accordingly. This kind of "should be weak but isn't" easily shakes the bears' confidence. BTC is currently at 80440, previously pulled back from 79800, and on the 15-minute chart it has climbed back above the 20 moving average at 80203, with MACD turning up. The short-term momentum is indeed relatively strong. But I don't want to interpret this strength directly as a return of risk appetite; it feels more like a squeeze targeting the short sellers, with some emotional recovery but insufficient diffusion. The ETF side is critical: a single-day outflow of 2123 BTC, about 169 million USD, looks scary; but over 7 days there is still a net inflow of 3344 BTC, about 267 million USD, indicating that buying hasn't disappeared, just some short-term profit-taking. My understanding is that the market is not trading on "a full capital retreat" but on "who is willing to continue bearing risk amid high volatility." BTC has gained this preference, ETH has not. ETH had a single-day outflow of 6960, about 16.07 million USD, and a 7-day cumulative outflow of 85801, about 198 million USD. A 20 USD rebound is not enough to reassure me; 2340 to 2345 hasn't been surpassed either. SOL is near 102, also showing some weakness in following the rise. The bullish path depends on BTC holding above 80200 and pushing from 80700 to 80850 #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？
1️⃣ Crypto business may hold back growth. In Q2 2026, Robinhood's crypto trading revenue dropped 38% year-over-year to $100 million. Although crypto trading activity picked up in Q3, catching up to last year's high base is not easy.
2️⃣ Revenue growth does not necessarily mean profits will soar. The market expects Q3 revenue around $1.42 billion to $1.44 billion, but earnings per share are forecasted at about $0.54 to $0.56, below last year's $0.61. Operating expenses, compliance costs, and others may also squeeze profits.
3️⃣ The biggest issue is that market expectations might be too high. Options, stock trading, and event contract businesses could provide support, but if the earnings report only meets expectations or management's outlook for future growth is not optimistic enough, the stock price may not respond positively. In past quarters, even when earnings exceeded expectations, the stock price has sometimes fallen.Today (October 27), the main theme of speculation after the European stock market opened was not a single narrative but multiple concurrent threads: the early session was pressured by heavyweight stock earnings reports, then funds quickly rotated among various sectors driven by expectations of US-Iran negotiations, better-than-expected corporate earnings, and specific policy catalysts.
📊 Market Trend: Initially down then up, index divergence
At the open, major European indices generally declined. As of 10:15 AM Madrid time, Germany's DAX was down 0.11%, France's CAC 40 down 0.13%, the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.83%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.16%.
Market sentiment then recovered, with the Stoxx 600 index turning positive at 0.2% by 11:01 AM London time. The main driver was optimism about the potential restart of US-Iran negotiations, offsetting the negative impact from HSBC's earnings report.
🚀 Core Speculation Directions and Individual Stocks
1. Construction and Mining: Leading sectors driven by geopolitical expectations
With rising expectations for US-Iran talks and Brent crude oil retreating to around $115, construction and mining stocks were the strongest performers intraday. The Spanish market stood out: Ferrovial surged 7.37% after clarifying payment details for the I-24 highway project in Tennessee to regulators; Solaria jumped 6.65% following the Spanish government's relaxation of renewable energy requirements for data center support.
2. Technology and Biotechnology: Stock bursts under AI narrative recovery
The overnight filing of IPO documents by Anthropic reignited market interest in AI investments, but European tech stock speculation favored individual stocks with concrete earnings or data catalysts rather than broad sector-wide gains.
Computacenter (tech services) was one of the strongest stocks, soaring 13.1%, driven by the company's fourth upward revision of its full-year profit guidance this year. Genmab (biotech) followed with a 12.1% rise due to positive trial results of an experimental cancer drug. In the Vienna market, semiconductor manufacturer AT&S also gained 7.6%.
3. Packaging: Independently strong stocks driven by earnings
Swiss SIG Group shares jumped 9.13% after the packaging group raised its 2026 profit margin guidance following solid results in the first nine months and is expected to resume dividends.
4. Energy Infrastructure: Supported by high gas prices
Although the energy sector overall dipped slightly by 0.2% due to falling oil prices, Europe's elevated natural gas prices (TTF benchmark surpassed €95/MWh, with over 30% increase in October) supported some infrastructure stocks. Italy's Italgas rose 2.18%, and Snam increased 2.34%.
📉 Main Weaknesses: Earnings shocks and sector rotation
Financial stocks were a clear source of pressure today. HSBC plunged 6.5% after third-quarter results missed expectations; despite announcing a new share buyback plan, it could not offset the negative earnings impact. Spanish bank stocks generally weakened, with Bankinter, CaixaBank, and BBVA down between 1.1% and 1.2%. Additionally, the personal care sector underperformed.
Automotive stocks showed sharp divergence: Porsche's shares rose 4.5% despite another significant sales decline, supported by earnings resilience; meanwhile, Beiersdorf weakened due to soft organic growth (Nivea brand down 4.9%).
💎 Summary
Today's European market speculation after the open was a typical "event and earnings-driven" scenario. Funds did not blindly chase the overnight US AI sector rally but precisely flowed into stocks with clear positive announcements (Computacenter's raised guidance, Genmab's clinical data, SIG's profit margin guidance, Ferrovial's regulatory clarification). Meanwhile, HSBC's earnings shock weighed on financials, while US-Iran negotiation expectations became a key variable for cyclical sectors like construction and mining and overall index sentiment recovery. On the eve of Federal Reserve and European Central Bank decisions, this localized play around individual catalysts was more prominent than broad directional bets.The virtual asset income tax originally scheduled to be implemented on January 1, 2027, is now being postponed by two years to 2029. This marks the fourth time South Korea has hit the brakes on the crypto tax threshold. On October 26, the internal signals from the South Korean presidential office were very direct: it's not that regulators suddenly care about retail investors' wallets, but rather that the trump card for cross-border tax investigations hasn't been fully assembled yet. Although the OECD's crypto asset reporting framework (CARF) is set to launch in 2027, the United States has clearly stated it will not officially join this information exchange network until 2029. If South Korea unilaterally enforces a 20% capital gains tax in 2027, domestic high-net-worth funds can easily avoid tracking by moving their holdings to overseas platforms. Ultimately, this would only drive liquidity from the Seoul exchange to offshore markets unnecessarily. After clarifying the calculations, continuing to delay by two years has become the most logical transitional plan. The final decision will depend on the outcome of the November parliamentary tax subcommittee negotiations, but the signal is already clear: before global tax data is fully networked and enclosed, no major trading country is willing to unilaterally undermine its own position by pushing domestic stock funds outward. Retail investors trading in Korean won have at least gained another two years of tax-free buffer.#AWS computing power demand is booming, what are the highlights of Amazon's Q3 earnings report?
Amazon is set to release its Q3 earnings report on October 29. In the forecast market shown in the image, 72% of the funds bet on it exceeding expectations — the anticipation is so high it’s almost overflowing from the screen.
First, let's look at the fundamentals. CEO Jassy stated: AWS's computing capacity for 2026 is already fully sold out, most of 2027 is booked, and even 2028 is being snapped up. Just from this, the demand for AI computing power is indeed scorching hot, practically a money-printing machine.
But don’t get too excited yet; there’s a big risk hidden underneath. The more computing power sold, the more massive investment is needed to buy cards and expand data centers. Once these huge capital expenditures hit, profit margins and free cash flow will definitely be severely squeezed. Wall Street nowadays doesn’t care how fast your revenue grows; it only cares if your spending is worthwhile. The disastrous earnings reports from Meta and Tesla are a bloody lesson — the market’s patience for AI stories that just burn money without returns has run out.
If Amazon also delivers a report of "revenue exceeding expectations, but terrifying capital expenditures and negative free cash flow," there will likely be another massacre after hours.
This matter directly impacts the broader market. Tech giants like Amazon and Microsoft are barometers of global risk appetite. If they get hammered due to burning cash, the Nasdaq will definitely plunge, and the fragile support BTC has at the 80,000 level could be broken at any moment due to liquidity being drained.
$AMZN $xAMZN Today's market is a bit split: Asian tech stocks rose 3%, but Bitcoin actually fell back below 80,000.
South Korea's Kospi rose 3.1% today, but crypto didn't keep up at all; the DeFi index even dropped 1.8%.
At night, BTC hovered around $79,700, down about 0.6% in 24 hours.
What's ridiculous is that the spot ETF had a net inflow of $110 million on Monday, all from BlackRock IBIT alone, ending the outflows of the previous two days, yet the price still kept falling.
The Fed started its two-day meeting today, with the decision coming tomorrow. The market bets about a 90% chance of no change, and everyone is waiting for that one statement.
Honestly, this doesn't look like panic; it seems no one wants to make a move before the decision. Institutional inflows and cautious sentiment are pulling in opposite directions.
I'll watch from the sidelines first. I'll consider the downtrend over if it stands back above 80,000; if it breaks below 79,263 (last Saturday's lowest wick), this judgment is void.
Before the decision lands, it's better to move less below 80,000 than to move erratically. $BTC $ETH $SOL
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ SK Hynix is under considerable pressure this quarter's financial report. There is demand for HBM, but the valuation has already been significantly overextended. For now, I will take a No stance and wait and see. Robinhood's "better-than-expected" performance this time is not due to the business side, but rather precisely crossing the threshold under GAAP standards. The evidence of better-than-expected business performance is solid: September's crypto trading volume increased 21% month-over-month, exceeding market consensus by 87%; event contract trading volume exceeded consensus by 36%. BTIG's extrapolation of quarter-end trading also shows options, crypto, and event contracts exceeding consensus by approximately 11%, 25%, and 10%, respectively, indicating a high probability of revenue surpassing consensus. However, the consensus itself is concentrated in a very narrow range of $0.55 to $0.56, with rules requiring strictly above $0.56, actually needing to reach above $0.57, while $0.56 is already near the upper edge of consensus. Better-than-expected and precisely crossing the line are not the same. The real structural obstacle comes from Q2's $0.62, which included about $0.14 of one-time off-balance-sheet fund income; excluding that, the core EPS was about $0.48. Currently, Q3 has no known comparable one-time income to boost results, so to grow from $0.48 to $0.57 quarter-over-quarter requires about a 19% increase, which must come from core operations. At the same time, if stock-based compensation falls at or above the guidance upper bound, or if any new regulatory legal expenses arise, they could consume $0.01 to $0.02, turning the result from Yes to No. Overall, $0.55 to $0.56 is a completely reasonable landing point, which under settlement rules would be judged as No. #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ $LTC payment-type assets tend to lack independent catalysts during market volatility. Long-term operation and transfer use provide underlying value, but capital attention, payment merchant coverage, and relative liquidity have a greater impact on marginal demand. If BTC remains stable while LTC continues to underperform, the defensive narrative does not hold. I will raise my assessment only when I see real payment data growth, relatively strong trading, and a breakout from the range; otherwise, it looks more like a follow-the-leader market.Let's calculate: 18 months is one and a half years. This message observes Bitcoin holdings that have been held for more than one and a half years. CryptoQuant community analyst Crypto Dan states that the proportion of such holdings first rises and then falls, which historically often accompanies strong rallies; currently, this signal has not yet appeared, and based on this, he judges that the market may still be in its early stage.
① 18 months is the holding duration threshold, not a countdown for the market. I understand it as filtering for long-term holdings, and we cannot directly equate "signal not appearing" with "how much longer the price can rise."
② The material does not provide the proportion of Bitcoin held for more than 18 months, nor the magnitude of change. Without these numbers, I can understand the analyst's observation logic but cannot judge how far the current state is from the historical signal.
③ Besides the 18-month threshold, the statement "most people are not paying attention, and those interested are still watching" lacks supporting numbers or proportions. This part seems more like sentiment observation and cannot be directly taken as evidence of new funds, nor can it be used to calculate subsequent upside potential.
My judgment is that this information is useful for studying long-term holding behavior but has limited value for estimating upside potential. I usually separate changes in holdings from new demand; otherwise, it's easy to misinterpret "not overheated yet" as "inevitable price increase." Which indicator do you usually value most when reading such reports? If you could request only one additional data point, what would you want to see and why? Putin hints at ending the conflict and lifting sanctions! Is this a turning point for peace or just another "smokescreen"? Just now, Putin sent a major signal: there is a need to comprehensively consider ending the ongoing conflict and lifting sanctions. Once the news broke, market expectations for a thaw in geopolitical tensions quickly heated up. With the U.S. midterm elections just a week away on November 3 and domestic energy prices high, these words are far from casual. However, experts must pour cold water on this perspective: Putin's "peace statement" should be viewed within the framework of negotiation leverage, not as a signal of a trend reversal. First, there is real pressure behind the statement. On October 16, the U.S. temporarily suspended several new sanctions on Russia and eased diesel trade restrictions; Russian diesel exports will not be subject to U.S. sanctions until April 2027. Meanwhile, the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine plan to hold trilateral technical-level talks in November, prioritizing discussions on a ceasefire for energy facilities. Putin's emphasis on "lifting sanctions" at this time essentially sets conditions for the upcoming negotiations—sanctions must be lifted first, then the conflict can be ended, rather than an unconditional concession. Second, the market is already pricing in "peace expectations," but this pricing is purely emotional. CITIC Securities clearly points out that if the U.S. and Russia only reach a short-term ceasefire agreement, the impact on major asset classes is more likely to be a short-term emotional reaction, such as a temporary decline in geopolitical risk premiums for gold, crude oil, and the U.S. dollar; only a substantive breakthrough in lifting sanctions on Russia would have a more tangible effect on commodity supply. Third, the transmission path to the crypto market is indirect. Oil$SOL
In the morning session, I said 99.83 was just four cents short of breaking, but at 18:00, a single trade of 488,102 contracts (3.3 times the previous 149,517, the largest of the day) directly pushed it down to 99.11, invalidating my long position conditions on the spot.
But looking closely: the volume smashed out the largest of the day, the price only dropped 0.76, closing at 100.10, breaking 99.83 but then recovering. Breaking but not holding means it was a stop-loss sweep.
After the smash, at 19:00 only 175,744 contracts were traded, and from 20:00 until now just 17,000 — the selling pressure was thick, but the chasing volume disappeared. This move by the bears was not an opening, but a clearing out.
Current price 99.95 / 24h -1.70% / MA20 100.28, resistance at the top by 0.33, no candle closed above it all day.
Buy on a volume-backed close above 100.40 (volume ≥ 200,000 contracts), then pull back to 100.10~100.25 to go long, stop loss at 99.78, targets at 101.10 / 101.63, risk-reward ratio 2.3 / 3.6.
If it rebounds to 100.25~100.40 but fails, and the 1H candle closes bearish with volume ≥ 180,000 contracts, go short, stop loss at 100.70, target 99.11, risk-reward 3.2, do not chase the first break.
Stay out between 99.11~100.40.
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)🔥 Oil prices are approaching $110, can BTC still hold up? The real risk might just be beginning! 📉 Many believe that rising oil prices are only an issue for the energy market, but in reality, it could gradually transmit to the stock and cryptocurrency markets through inflation, interest rates, and market liquidity. For Bitcoin, this transmission chain is something every investor should be wary of. ⚠️ To understand the current market, you only need to see one key logic: 🛢️ Rising oil prices → Increased inflation pressure → Limited Fed rate cut space → High funding costs maintained → Risk assets like Bitcoin may come under pressure. 📊 Let's look at the latest data. 🛢️ As of the close on October 26, WTI crude oil futures for November delivery stood at $101.41 per barrel, up 3.51% for the day. 🛢️ Brent crude oil futures for December delivery stood at $109.86 per barrel, up 3.72% for the day. 👀 Although Trump said oil prices will drop soon, the current market performance shows investors remain cautious about the subsequent trend in energy prices. 🇺🇸 What really matters is not just how much oil prices have risen, but whether this round of increases will push up U.S. inflation pressure again. 📈 U.S. inflation rate in September was about 3.7%. According to the University of Michigan survey, the inflation expectation for the next year rose from 4.6% to 4.7%. 📈 Meanwhile, long-term inflation expectations rose from 3.4% to 3.5%, reaching the highest level since May, while the final consumer confidence index was only$97.5 billion, the shovel sellers pay the shovel buyers.
Meta ups the largest equity financing in history to $97.5 billion
Common stock $25 billion priced at $625, plus $12.5 billion mandatory convertible preferred stock
Another $60 billion ATM to be sold slowly in 2027
NVIDIA officially announced today a $3 billion subscription
AMD and Broadcom are also interested, with the three totaling up to $5 billion
Chipmakers pay to help their biggest customer buy chips; the money circulates within the circle and comes back
Meta's stock price fell about 1.4% this morning
Q3 free cash flow -$2.12 billion, negative for the first time in over a decade
The $825 billion future spending commitment is there; the books can't be balanced by storytelling
I think this is the first day AI circular financing is put on the table, observing not chasing
The invalidation point is Meta truly scaling Muse with this money, or capital expenditure guidance capping in 2027
Which side are you on: is circular blood transfusion a moat, or a game of hot potato?
$NVDA $META $AMD
#NVIDIA #Meta$BTC
Jason Calacanis is calling out again, saying Bitcoin will drop to $57,000 within a year, urging everyone to sell quickly.
I casually checked the live market: OKX is currently at 79,907, 24-hour low is 79,455, Binance's lowest is 79,429. The news saying "falling below $80,000" checks out, it's not clickbait. Before the decision, the funding rate is still 0.01% at the first tier, contract positions are $26.1 billion, leverage hasn't fled; but sentiment has already collapsed, the unified sentiment index dropped to -11, Polymarket's remaining October segment probability of hitting 82,500 dropped by 20% in one day, now only 36%.
There's another detail on-chain: whale Mk4 is holding $25 million NEAR longs on one side, while shorting BTC plus seven major mainstream coins totaling $13.1 million on the other.
This is not bearish, it's hedging, with positions on both sides.
$57,000 is what he said, not me. I only know that before the decision lands, these two-sided bets are more interesting than one-sided calls.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 I noticed that this time Marinade distinguishes between client defects and validator responsibilities. Running the Agave 4.3.2 node of Alpenglow, about half of the slots in the first block production window of each Epoch are skipped; the fix code has been merged but not yet released. Before the fixed version is released, PSR will not deduct margin for this, and SAM will not count it as failing the online rate.
This is somewhat interesting, but I prefer to see it as a rule-level bonus rather than a catalyst for a small coin market. Exempting validators from blame on the client side helps stabilize participation expectations; exemption from deductions does not mean the problem disappears, and the emotional repair in the staking sector still lacks technical implementation.
I see that in highly volatile assets, opportunities often lie in emotional repricing, while the risk is reading "no penalty" as "problem solved" 👀. Next, I will keep an eye on the release of the fixed version and node performance, and I am not in a hurry to convert governance actions into reasons for price increases.Meta is raising $97.5 billion in one go, diluting existing shareholders first.
On Tuesday, Meta increased its common stock issuance from 22.5 billion to 25 billion shares, priced at $625 per share.
There are also preferred shares, with a follow-up phased issuance plan of up to 60 billion.
NVIDIA said it will subscribe for $3 billion, and AMD and Broadcom have also expressed interest.
In Q3, Meta's free cash flow turned negative, burning about $2.1 billion, the first time in over a decade.
I think this is neither good nor bad news; it's the AI arms race reaching the stage of equity financing.
Chipmakers are paying to buy their customers' stock, and customers then use that money to buy chips—this cycle deserves extra attention.
The $625 issuance price will be a very clear dividing line going forward.
If the price holds above $625 with volume, it means the market is willing to accept this dilution, and my caution would be wrong.
If it falls below the issuance price and can't stop, it means the funds are voting with their feet.
My approach is to observe and not chase, waiting for Wednesday's Fed decision and peer earnings reports before making a move.
What do you think about this financing: A) Confident in AI, or B) Cash is running low?
$META
#USStocks #Meta #AI #FederalReserveThe funding rate is so negative that the shorts are paying to dump the market; the more I look at this scene, the more familiar it feels.
Today, while checking the futures data, I saw something quite contradictory. The perpetual contract funding rate for $DOGE is negative, at -0.0008%, ranking as the most negative among mainstream assets.
What does a negative funding rate mean? It means that those shorting not only hope for the price to drop but also have to pay interest to the longs every eight hours out of their own pockets. When the price falls, shorts are still paying to maintain their positions.
What’s more subtle is another figure. In the 24-hour total liquidations across the network, DOGE’s short liquidations account for a significant portion. On Binance, the top traders’ long-short ratio remains above 2.6; no one is closing positions just because the price is hovering around 0.077.
An analysis on KuCoin put it quite bluntly: all assets are falling, but the perpetual futures market is making shorts pay longs. This combination of “price crash + negative funding rate” essentially fuels a short squeeze. I’m not saying a rally will happen immediately, but shorts bearing negative funding rates to push prices down—the longer they hold, the higher the cost. At the 0.077 level, those paying to dump the market usually can’t hold out for long. $80,000 is undergoing a test of "buy order quality." The simultaneous halt of ETF and Strategy means current support relies more on futures order books and retail funds rather than organized institutional backing. **$80,500, the logic of bottom formation can still continue; if $78,800 long positions are effectively liquidated, the mid-term pricing anchor may shift further downward.
· Right-side signal: It is necessary to see ETF resume sustained net inflows, Strategy restart buying, and price volume increase to hold above $80,500 to confirm the true recovery of support "thickness," rather than relying solely on order books.
· Deep observation zone: **$78,000 → $79,400 breach requires serious evaluation of the next range. $BTC $ETH $SOL #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Labubu also didn't escape the fate of NFT.
Pop Mart's Q3 revenue dropped 45% to 50% year-on-year, with the Americas down 70% to 75%, and Asia-Pacific down 65% to 70%;
Management also said that gross margin will decline further in the second half, with proactive price cuts overseas and continued store openings.
Translation: Small profits but quick turnover!
Meanwhile, Duan Yongping holds about 102 million shares, accounting for 8% of the shares,
with a cost of around HKD 150, current price HKD 132,
showing an unrealized loss of about HKD 1.846 billion, an unrealized loss ratio of about 12.07%.
I don't understand the logic behind continuously increasing positions in Pop Mart,
betting on another hit product?
But Labubu is still better than NFT in some ways,
when the hype fades, at least Jenny Jun still has a display window behind her,
and can still play with the cat when there's nothing else to do.
NFT? Can't even see it anymore.SpaceX has reached a $40 billion GPU financing lease agreement, indicating that massive capital is still flowing into computing power infrastructure. The risk appetite spillover indirectly supports the sentiment for established privacy coins like ZEC, but ZEC only rose 1.6% today, showing that funds have not truly tilted. I judge this as a weak rebound rather than a trend reversal. The contradiction lies in: the 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages are upward, the price at 1245.48 has risen 18% from the 4-hour low, but the top 10 order book buy orders are 552 versus sell orders 1749, with a strength ratio of 0.32. The sell-side order thickness is three times that of the buy side, and the funding rate of -0.0035% exposes shorts paying to short, with 119,000 coin-based positions not withdrawn. The short-term rally looks more like a bull trap. Strategically, aggressive traders can lightly short at the current price of 1245.48, with a stop loss set above 1268.35 and a target of 1212.65; conservative traders should wait for a pullback to 1212.65 without breaking before going long, with a stop loss at 1198.42 and a target of 1258.73. Single position size should not exceed 5% of total funds; in a negative funding rate environment, short positions need to guard against short squeeze pulses.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$ZEC #Meta launches $35 billion financing to support AI infrastructure
#SpaceX reaches $40 billion GPU financing lease agreement
$ZEC $Q midnight plunge! Dropped from 0.236 to 0.063, the bulls are really stunned this time!
Brothers, we were still talking about altcoin trends during the day, and at night Q directly put on a high dive show for everyone! The price smashed down from 0.236013 all the way to 0.062947. This is not a correction, it's like turning a roller coaster into free fall! Those wanting to bottom-fish, don't get excited yet; a big drop doesn't mean the bottom is reached.
From the chart, moving averages are clearly diverging downward, short-term bears dominate. The key support now is 0.062–0.063; if it doesn't hold, the price may continue to fall; resistance to face on the upside is 0.075–0.080.
Trading idea: If the rebound to around 0.075–0.080 is clearly resisted, consider light short positions, with a stop above 0.085; watch 0.060 below, breaking it calls for caution of further weakness.
After a crash, the most precious thing isn't the chips, but the patience to control your hands! Sister Luo doesn't rely on guessing the bottom to prove herself; if the signal hasn't appeared, don't rush in yet! #SpaceX达成400亿美元GPU融资租赁协议 The K-line has been stuck around 80,000 all day with little movement, but contract positions have been quietly increasing.....
OKX's BTC perpetual positions have increased by 5.4% in a day, yet the price has slightly dropped. The long-short account ratio is 2.27, with retail investors overwhelmingly going long, while large holders are more bearish. This kind of increasingly squeezed market is most afraid of a sudden sharp drop!?
FOMC will announce at 2 AM Thursday. I’m watching the 79,221 level; if it breaks below, I’ll exit first. I won’t rush to go long until it stands back above 80,845.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Ethereum is still in short supply!
Ethereum
:( Sometimes, in the crypto world, all it takes is one good trade.
I don't think I can sell them all :((
OG Wallet participated in the ICO, buying 100,000 ETH at $0.3 each, then transferred 1,500 ETH to Binance and Bybit.
About $3.6 million has been raised so far, with around 46,000 $ETH still for sale. The long upper shadow on the 21st was the most honest trade in this round of $DOOD. The moment it surged the most fiercely was also the moment of the most intense turnover, with chips passing from those chasing the price to those taking the position. The three consecutive bearish days afterward just slowly clarified this matter. I started shorting at 0.002253, standing not at the top, but at the inflection point where the previous mispricing began to be corrected.
A floating profit of 192.63% boils down to having the direction right once, with leverage making it look like a victory. But leverage never distinguishes right from wrong; it only amplifies. The mark price 0.002035 and the opening price are separated by more than nine points. These nine points are heavy under 20x leverage, yet light in front of a wick. The difference between professional and unprofessional lies precisely in whether you dare to admit that string of green numbers is not yet money.
The market is now stuck in an awkward place: bears control the rhythm, bulls hold the lower boundary. High points are gradually moving down, lows are stubbornly unbroken—a typical weak rebound continuation. The most dangerous in this situation are those who keep correcting back and forth, one bullish candle washes them out, then a bearish candle pulls them back.
I won’t add to my position, nor will I celebrate early just because the numbers look good. If the upper resistance is reclaimed with volume, I admit my mistake and exit; if the lower boundary is broken with volume and positions shrink simultaneously, that is the true conclusion of this trade. The rest of the time, quietness is more valuable than cleverness. $BTC $ETH #富兰克林邓普顿推出美股股息买BTC新型ETF BTC fell 2.43% last week, marking the third consecutive week of decline, breaking below the $82,500 support level and retesting the $80,000 mark. On the macro front, rising energy prices and inflation concerns are replacing AI financing issues as the main market risks. Bitcoin's recent movement is highly correlated with the Nasdaq and AI stocks, and ETF fund flows have started to show bidirectional fluctuations.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and policy statements will be key catalysts for Bitcoin's short-term trend. If Bitcoin fails to hold $80,000, the next support level is $76,000; if that breaks, the price could further decline toward the $70,000 range.
In the short term, BTC needs to reclaim the $82,000–$82,500 range to have a chance to resume its upward trend. If the Fed signals a hawkish stance, the market may reassess a December rate hike, pushing yields higher and increasing downward pressure on Bitcoin; if the policy stance leaves room for December decisions, it could create conditions for a Bitcoin rebound.
Currently, market directional confidence is insufficient, and caution remains ahead of the Fed decision and the release of U.S. Q3 GDP and September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data. If the Fed signals dovishness but the subsequent PCE inflation data exceeds expectations, the market may sell off tech stocks due to renewed inflation pressure, dragging Bitcoin down. The institution emphasizes that it is not explicitly bearish at this time but remains cautious until Bitcoin reclaims $82,500.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Calculate it: Galaxy's net profit in Q3 improved by $408 million compared to the previous quarter, turning from a net loss of $85 million to a net profit of $323 million. From this financial report, I judge it to be somewhat positive, but the weight mainly lies in the company's operations and financing aspects, and it cannot be directly translated into the overall crypto market sentiment.
① Total assets at the end of the quarter were $16.4 billion, with cash, stablecoins, and U.S. Treasuries totaling $4.9 billion, about 30%. This gives me a bit more confidence in its liquidity buffer, although these asset types cannot all be considered as instantly spendable cash.
② Year-to-date, 9.8 million shares have been repurchased, and the board has authorized an additional $200 million for buybacks. For shareholders, this signals a willingness to return capital, but authorization does not equal execution, so I won’t count the authorized amount as actual buying volume.
③ The data center power project reserves exceed 5.7 GW, and a $3.5 billion senior secured notes issuance has been completed to fund the second phase of Helios I construction. Financing supports construction, but project reserves are not yet revenue; the ability to realize them later determines the significance of these numbers.
My habit is to separate profit, buybacks, and construction investments to avoid getting overwhelmed by several large figures stacked together. This turnaround is substantial, but since the report doesn’t break down profit sources, I’m more interested in whether profitability can be sustained and how project construction translates into operational results going forward.