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$RE
This altcoin's decline has only just begun; now is the best time to short it.
When re was listed, it coincided with the start of a bull market, combined with re's design of unlocking tokens every six months. A series of favorable factors meant this altcoin didn't drop much after listing. But now the market style has changed. The U.S. stock market's four-year-long bull run since 2022 has officially ended, and the market has turned bearish. Re coincides with a December unlock of 40 million tokens that will hit the market hard. After this unlock, every June and December will see 126 million tokens unlocked annually, totaling 750 million tokens unlocked over three years. Meanwhile, after three years, competing tokens to re may have already issued dozens of alternatives.
With the bear market starting, combined with 800 million tokens unlocking, phased massive unlocks, competition crisis, and the altcoin's inherent characteristics of unlimited issuance and unbacked printing, a series of adverse factors are destined to drive re toward zero. It is expected that after the December unlock, re will fall to 0.15, and after the 126 million tokens unlock next June, it will drop to 0.07. At this critical bull-bear transition point, shorting is the best way to make money.3. One short position in three! Large holders' long-term short position layout, relying on funding fees to buffer floating losses
Latest monitoring of this large holder's perpetual contract positions shows simultaneous short bets on BTC, ETH, and SOL, all with low leverage, with very considerable funding fee income.
📊 Complete position breakdown
✅ BTC short position｜5X full position
Position: -2603.29 BTC, position value 210 million U
Opening price: 76331.0 U
Unrealized loss: -9.6373 million U
Funding fee income: +3.1389 million U
Margin: 41.6698 million U, liquidation price: 143401.53
✅ ETH short position｜5X full position
Position: -106,400 ETH, position value 250 million U
Opening price: 2322.74 U
Unrealized profit: +1.4303 million U
Funding fee income: +4.2794 million U
Margin: 49.1452 million U, liquidation price: 3847.13
✅ SOL short position｜7X full position
Position: -719,900 SOL, position value 72.3791 million U
Opening price: 94.3199 U
Unrealized loss: -4.4815 million U
Funding fee income: +3.8246 million U
Margin: 10.3399 million U, liquidation price: 324.25 A $2.09 billion unrealized gain is like a pot of oil just starting to smoke, sizzling as it hits the cutting board before the quarterly report—this isn’t profit, it’s timing.
This company, with Bitcoin as its ballast, holds about 848,000 bitcoins, essentially moving the entire premium ingredient supply chain into a cold storage. Before the quarterly report is even out, the $2.09 billion fair value aroma wafts out—smells strong indeed, but the real test of skill is: do you keep adding to this broth, or skim off the oil first?
Buying back about $176 million in preferred stock, to me, is like skimming off the thick oil on the soup’s surface. It’s not for show, but to prevent the seasoning of financing costs from becoming too salty. Preferred stock is the backup broth in the kitchen—useful in emergencies, but too much will overpower the main dish’s flavor; Bitcoin is the main dish, large in quantity and cooked with strong heat, so side dishes and seasonings need to be restrained. If you treat leveraged contracts like super spicy chili peppers, a big handful can indeed invigorate, but when the spice burns through your gut, the stove won’t call a timeout for you.
This pot of capital allocation fears two problems most: first, seasoning the dish before the main course is cooked; second, diluting the broth when it’s already rich. Currently, with unrealized gains rebounding, if the financing strategy keeps expanding, it’s like throwing ghost peppers into the chili oil pot—aromatic but with a strong afterburn. Conversely, buying back preferred stock first and fixing the financing structure is like scraping off the burnt edges of the pot, so the next dish won’t taste bitter.
The US stock token targets are like pre-made dishes on the side stove—smelling good, but their doneness depends on the mood of the US stock market and Bitcoin. No matter how lively the Amazon token target is, it’s just a flavored broth borrowing aroma, not the main dish on the table; if the main dish is undercooked, the more fragrant the side dishes, the more anxious it feels.
My stove only recognizes one principle: the main dish must hold the table, only then can chili peppers be called flavor; if the main dish is weak, buying back preferred stock is just pouring water on the burnt edges of the pot. #strategyq3btcgainsShort-term bullish rebound expected, but set stop-loss levels
The BTC positions of the top 1000 Hyperliquid accounts are quite striking: shorts about $1.02 billion, longs about $668 million, short/long ratio about 1.53; ETH is nearly balanced, longs about $928 million, shorts about $873 million. My judgment is: in the short term, bulls are more likely to start covering the gap rather than shorts blindly adding positions.
The reason is simple. BTC large holders leaning short are already quite crowded; for shorts to add more, the price needs to cooperate by falling; but ETH has not deteriorated in sync, indicating risk appetite has not completely collapsed. At the time of writing, BTC is about 80,336, ETH about 2,328. If BTC can hold near 80,000, the cost-effectiveness of shorts continuing to chase will decrease, and some profit-taking shorts will turn into covering buy orders. At this point, bulls filling part of the $668 million vs. $1.02 billion gap is smoother than shorts pressing down another round.
But this is not a dead bull scenario. If BTC effectively breaks below 80,000 and ETH follows down, shorts adding positions will dominate. So my bet is: first cover, then watch 80,000 to determine direction.
$BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The gamble on the options desk: Everyone is buying insurance
This is a signal that's easy to overlook. On Deribit, the monthly options expiring on October 30th have a scale of about $11.2 billion, with the max pain point at 76,000; the batch on the 23rd is $1.23 billion, with a pain point at 82,000[web_doc 57]. Looking at BVIV, the proportion of Bitcoin options open interest to total derivatives open interest has risen from about 50% at the start of the year to nearly 60%, with IBIT options alone around $35 billion[web_doc 16].
More importantly, the skew is still negative, with short-term puts more expensive than calls[web_doc 18][web_doc 52]. To translate: some verbally bet on 90,000, but in reality, everyone is buying downside protection.
I quite like this state. The real top often happens when everyone is too lazy to buy insurance and call options are ridiculously expensive. That’s not the case now. $BTC Gold price falling below 4000 is not a failure of safe haven, but like a piece being taken off the chessboard. It’s the first breach since mid-July, with about a four percentage point pullback within the week. On the surface, it looks like Middle East uncertainties couldn’t withstand the selling pressure, but in reality, three lines are being pressed simultaneously: oil prices pushing inflation expectations, forced re-evaluation of interest rate paths, and rising volatility triggering liquidity demand. The safe haven was originally guarding the king’s wing, but once real interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold feels like heavy pieces pressing the line; no fortress, however thick, can withstand continuous piece exchanges. The Middle East news seems more like a lure, attracting front-running selling pressure; the real main line is cash demand—some sell gold not because they are bearish on it, but to replenish other positions. This is sacrificing a piece to open a channel, but if the sacrifice doesn’t gain the initiative, it’s a gift.
The linkage of the US stock token XTSLA is not about mirroring intraday moves, but about synchronized contraction of risk budgets. Tokenized US stocks are a flank channel; high-beta assets are deleveraged first when volatility rises. Gold and US stock tokens are pulled by the same cash demand, seemingly two battlefields but actually sharing one rear defense line. Whether short-term selling pressure can ease depends on two things: whether cash demand recedes, and whether safe haven buying can build a defensible fortress below 4000. If the rebound fails to recover lost ground, bears get an open line; if after breaking down it quickly recovers, that move is a bear trap sacrifice. Grandmasters don’t count pieces before the endgame but calculate forced moves; position management is the same. Chasing shorts on a breakdown is a rookie miscalculation; waiting for rebound and volume confirmation is the midgame order. Don’t sacrifice pieces lightly unless it leads to a winning endgame after exchanges.
The decisive move in this game isn’t in Middle East headlines but in the exchange rate between cash and interest rates; gold falling below 4000 is just the first step, the real checkmate comes from forced sacrifices after liquidity withdrawal. #goldfallsbelow$4000Regulatory authorities are actually quietly loosening restrictions
This topic isn't very popular, but I care about it: The SEC's "Regulation on Crypto Asset Supervision" (Reg CA) public comment period just ended on October 20. The core is two tiers of financing exemptions — simplified disclosure for cumulative amounts not exceeding $5 million over 4 years, and only financial reports plus routine filings required for amounts not exceeding $75 million within 12 months, also with a "safe harbor" clause, meaning tokens meeting the conditions are not considered investment contracts[web_doc 4][web_doc 7].
California has jumped out to oppose, fearing that the federal government will override the state's screening authority[web_doc 4]. Bitwise and Hyperliquid also submitted letters asking the SEC to clarify airdrops and secondary market trading[web_doc 14].
There was almost no short-term price reaction, I admit that. But this is about clearer rules, not a token issuance frenzy. I prefer to see it as a fundamental support for "bear market bottoms being a bit shallower in the future" — compliance costs are reduced, so more money stays at the table long-term. $BTC Seller stopped buying; this matter is bigger than the news itself
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) latest disclosure: As of October 25, it holds 848,500 BTC, plus $5.1 billion in assets, and did not buy a single coin last week [web_doc 58][web_doc 63]. Its cost structure for those 848,517 coins has been spread out, with an average price of around seventy thousand, and it is still profitable now [web_doc 39].
Don't underestimate "not buying." This company is recognized by the market as a long bull with unlimited bullets; when it stops, the narrative loses one of the most stable automatic buyers. Meanwhile, Strive was very aggressive, disclosing on October 26 that it spent about $510 million last week to buy 6,182 coins at $82,732 each, bringing its total holdings close to 43,000 coins [web_doc 44].
My interpretation: institutions haven't fled; they're just changing seats. Treasury companies collectively still hold 1,167,800 coins, accounting for 5.8% of the circulating market value [web_doc 44]. This level is both a floor and a ceiling—when the financing environment tightens, whoever sells first will be closely watched by the market. $BTC $BTC ETF money comes in fast and goes out even faster
Breaking down last week's funds is quite disheartening:
October 20 (Monday) net inflow of 526.6 million, 21st 23.16 million, totaling about 1.08 billion over three consecutive days[web_doc 70]
On the 22nd, a single-day net outflow of 635.49 million abruptly stopped[web_doc 70]
On a weekly basis, according to SoSoValue, BTC ETF net inflow was about 443 million USD, which can be seen as stopping the bleeding[web_doc 26]
But ETH ETF has had outflows for the fourth consecutive week, with 225 million leaving last week, and over 1.2 billion outflow in October[web_doc 26]
What does this indicate? The money coming in isn’t "buy and hold" capital; it’s fast money chasing short-term rebounds. Coinbase premium index has been negative for 33 consecutive days, latest at -0.1259%[web_doc 54]—the domestic spot buying in the US is really weak.
As a spot trader, seeing this "inflow one day, outflow two days" rhythm, I only do one thing: don’t chase.The $ETH leverage ledger looks a bit off. Short positions have piled up to $5.7 billion, while longs only have $1.1 billion, a difference of more than five times. This is no longer just a bearish issue; it's that one side is too crowded. The price might still grind lower, but if it really rallies, these shorts won't even have time to run—the short squeeze fuse is already lit, it's not impossible.
Honestly, I can't predict the direction either, but I just feel this one-sided structure is very fragile. The market won't make everyone comfortable.
The sentiment on $ZEC is similar, shorts are also clustered. I'm watching both sides, no rush.Oil prices are the real hidden BOSS
Brent was still fluctuating between $109–114/barrel yesterday, and WTI didn't break 110 either[web_doc 55][web_doc 25]. The situation in the Middle East hasn't calmed down for a day, so oil prices just won't drop.
The logic chain is actually very short: expensive oil → inflation won't come down → the Fed dares not ease, might even raise rates again → money gets more expensive → assets like Bitcoin with no cash flow get disliked. Bitcoin has retraced about 37% from its all-time high of 126,000 last December to just over 80,000 now[web_doc 28].
I used to think "BTC is digital gold," but now I feel it's more like a high-beta tech stock in the short term. When oil rises, it cries; when the Nasdaq falls, it cries too. If you really want to use it to hedge inflation, the time frame has to be extended to years; looking at daily charts will make you question life. $BTC The barometer plunged from 1015 hPa to 992 hPa within forty-eight hours—this is not an ordinary airflow disturbance; it’s a frontal collision between a warm, moist air mass and dry, cold air near the $80,000 altitude line. From October 19 to 21, about $1.075 billion worth of warm, moist airflow poured over the Bitcoin spot fund from the southeastern coast, pushing the pressure to a short-term high; then, over the next two days, $774 million of dry, cold air counterattacked from the northwest, causing a sharp pressure drop as gust fronts swept across the entire market. The weekly ledger still shows a net warm advection of $301 million, with BlackRock’s flagship product alone intercepting $566 million of localized heavy precipitation—but don’t be fooled by the mild weekly total reading; the short-term pressure gradient is the real variable determining the perceived intensity.
Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000 and simultaneously lost the 50-day moving average, equivalent to the main pressure ridge line at the observation station being severed. This isn’t a typhoon making landfall; it’s the typhoon’s peripheral circulation repeatedly sweeping the coastline: rain bands pass in bursts, the wind speed gauge needle swings left and right, and visibility fluctuates. Even if weekly inflows remain positive, they can’t change the fact that short-term vertical wind shear is intensifying—the configuration of the upper-level jet stream and the low-level warm ridge is already misaligned, and the two consecutive days of negative zones on the echo map signal cold air probing the base.
Further south, the tokenized US stock targets also show linked shear. Capital flows like moisture transport belts in a monsoon trough, sometimes surging up from the southern branch trough, sometimes cut off by the northern branch trough, with path swings far exceeding seasonal averages. Sounding data shows near-surface humidity is still acceptable, but the mid-level dry layer is thickening, meaning fresh buying, even if it moves north again, is easily wedged and rapidly evaporated by dry, cold air.
What really needs monitoring is whether the warm, moist transport belt can rebuild early next week—if precipitation echoes continue to form near the 50-day moving average, the pressure ridge line may be restored; if the shear line continues to push south, short-term strong convection will repeatedly trigger. The currently observed weekly net inflow of $301 million is just a thin warm cover; the cold pool underneath has not been completely cleared. No one can control the storm, but the barometer doesn’t lie; every swing of the needle records the troop strength comparison between the cold and warm sides. #btcetfflowswings#AlphabetQ3CloudAndAI
When I brush away the stratigraphic layers of 19th-century British railway mania and then sweep off the heavy ashes of the early 2000s telecom fiber bubble, this tech giant pushing its capital expenditure budget to $200 billion is nothing more than another massive dinosaur skeleton self-carbonizing.
Every major construction driven by human greed leaves almost identical sediment in the stratigraphic profile. The ancient Romans laid down prohibitively expensive aqueducts in barren lands; 19th-century speculators frantically laid overlapping rail tracks in the wilderness; telecom pioneers of two millennia buried 90% idle fiber cables under the sea. In every grand narrative of technological leaps, there is always a confident vanguard who believes they are building stairs to the temple, unaware they are digging a burial pit.
From a stratigraphic perspective, Alphabet is committing the classic infrastructure hubris syndrome. Cloud computing and advanced computing power may seem like the gold of the digital age, but to me, these hardware devices depreciate astonishingly fast, like easily weathered clay tablets. A $200 billion capital expenditure means the cash flow well is being drawn from without limit, while the real downstream commercial output cannot possibly fill this imperial extravagance.
Historically, nine out of ten pioneers who dug canals or laid railways perished as roadside bones from excessive blood loss before the trains ever blew their profit-laden whistles at the station. The old British families who paid for railway mania and the giants who collapsed in the two-thousand-year fiber bubble did not die from immature technology; they all died from the complete exhaustion of cash flow before the winter came. Capital’s appetite is always greater than mortal productivity; when profit margins are eaten away by high depreciation and maintenance costs, the empire’s cornerstone develops irreversible stress fractures.
Under the sun, there is nothing new. The clamor of stacking chips in data centers today is no different from the heavy breaths of slaves hauling giant stones by the Nile to build pyramids three thousand years ago. Pharaohs who built magnificent wonders often died before completion; these modern oligarchs who frantically pour into infrastructure are destined to first endure a long collapse triggered by liquidity anemia.🏛️🔍$KAT vs $SOL Two Very Different Situations
KAT is up nearly 10%, but I'm not convinced this move has much strength behind it. Shorts are still comfortably profitable, and I don't see enough pressure to force them out.
SOL looks more interesting to me. Short sellers are heavily positioned and sitting on decent profits. That makes me cautious about expecting another easy drop.
I wouldn't chase either move right now, but if buyers start showing strength, SOL is the one I'd watch for a potential#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 400 trillion KRW repurchase and cancellation has been implemented, the year-end financial report will focus on free cash flow and dividend guidance; capital expenditure is set around 400 trillion KRW, management emphasizes "disciplined capacity expansion," not blind spending, prioritizing advanced HBM packaging, 1c DRAM, and 321-layer NAND, with a target of 50% local production capacity for 321-layer NAND by year-end. The bid is thinning from both ends. Short-term flows that once cushioned dips have vanished, while medium-term capital keeps stepping back. The result is a market where rallies struggle to find follow-through and every bounce is treated as an exit. Bitcoin tells the story cleanly. $BTC spot saw $19.56 million in net outflows over four hours and $64.86 million over 24 hours, while futures shed $257 million and $385 million respectively. The 30-day futures outflow has widened to $7.71 billion. WitI suggest Wall Street short sell Musk's SpaceX stock!
Musk's SpaceX and Apollo's agreement is truly astonishing.
SpaceX rents computing center equipment that Apollo bought with money, then subleases it to others.
Because his own AI simply cannot afford that much computing power, basically no revenue, no profit.
So SpaceX uses so-called market endorsement to raise more money.
But essentially, this deal has serious problems. You rent someone else's GPU and computing center, then sublease it to others, you are just a middleman, this is an abuse of market dominance.
I think as shareholders, this deal is absolutely unacceptable. I suggest everyone short sell SpaceX stock.
Go for it. $SPCX This article is actually conveying one idea: the money has returned, but the courage hasn't come back yet 😶
Let's first look at some attractive numbers. BTC spot inflow in 4 hours is 39.36 million, contracts returned 127 million; ETH spot and contracts are also flowing in within 4 hours; SOL is even stronger, with both spot and contracts turning positive in 24 hours.
But look at the market: money has been flowing back for most of the day, yet the price hasn't cooperated at all, still grinding below the key level, getting weaker and weaker. The green numbers are figures, the red ones are candlesticks, and these two don't match. The money coming back isn't chasing the rally, it's covering: shorts closing a bit, bottom-fishers buying a bit, no one is pushing the price up.
The position structure is similarly conflicted: by headcount, the bears are the majority; by position size, the heaviest batch is actually buying in. People haven't returned, but positions have come back first—this is probing, not an attack.
Looking at the longer term: BTC 30-day contracts have a net outflow of 7.82 billion, ETH 8.64 billion, the retreating team is much larger. SOL spot has some buyers, but 30-day contracts still have an outflow of 2.05 billion, leverage isn't coming back, the rebound has no legs. ZEC positions are quietly increasing; I take a closer look but won't chase.
There are also weekly data pressures ahead: confidence data, FOMC, GDP, and PCE are lined up. At times like this, the inflow should be considered risk-hedging cover, not a reversal.
Going forward, watch one thing: when the 24-hour metric turns positive, and when the price volume expands to reclaim the broken key level. If both happen together, I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong and change my stance; if only one happens, then it's just a rebound, and positions should remain light as usual.#中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？
Crude oil shipments from the Middle East have indeed mostly resumed recently, with many ships taking detours and having escorts; export volumes are nearly back to pre-conflict levels. Yet Brent crude stubbornly remains above $110, barely dropping at all.
In simple terms, there are a few reasons:
Just because ships can sail doesn’t mean everything is fine. The Strait of Hormuz is still under attack, oil tankers keep getting hit, and Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure is occasionally targeted. The market simply doesn’t believe the recovery is real.
Freight and insurance costs are shockingly high. Detours, ship-to-ship transfers, and war risk insurance premiums are outrageously expensive. Transport costs alone can add $10 to $20 per barrel, so prices naturally don’t come down.
Crude oil shipments have resumed, but refined products are recovering much slower. Diesel and gasoline are only about halfway back, so actual fuel supply remains tight.
On top of that, inventories were already low, and with fears of escalation after the midterm elections, risk premiums remain high. Even minor disturbances easily push prices up.
In short: oil can be shipped out, but it’s expensive and unsafe, refined fuel is still tight, and risks haven’t eased. So prices can’t be pushed down.
With oil prices this high, risk appetite is suppressed, and cryptocurrencies have to wait for these macro pressures to ease.
$BTC $ETH $CL #Bitmine buys ETH while repurchasing shares, I find the asset per share more interesting than the holding ranking
Bitmine disclosed on October 26 that it increased its ETH holdings by 10,452 last week, exceeding 6.05 million ETH, while also repurchasing 2.04 million common shares. What caught my attention is actually the latter part: the company is increasing assets while reducing shares. If the repurchase price is reasonable, the asset per share may improve as a result. However, repurchasing also consumes cash, so I will continue to watch the net asset per share after deducting liabilities, as well as changes in cash reserves. The holding ranking is straightforward, but the accounts for common shareholders require an additional calculation step. $BTC fell 0.76% in 24 hours, currently priced at 79,819.8, with a volatility of 1.9%. It followed the slight pullback of the US dollar and did not form a one-sided trend. The dollar's rise this time was moderate, with the main pressure falling on the yen, which translated into weakness in the crypto price. The funding rate for three periods rose from 0.0017% to 0.0100%, and longs are still willing to pay; contract open interest of $7.59 billion was not significantly liquidated. In 24 hours, long liquidations were $15.66 million, short liquidations $13.71 million, nearly balanced with no stampede. DVOL is 38.5, options open interest put/call ratio is 0.80, no rush to buy downside protection, and the put/call volume ratio is slightly higher at 0.91, indicating some short-term hedging. The total stablecoin supply is $303.1 billion, with no withdrawal of on-exchange funds. My judgment is that $BTC will continue to oscillate between 79,321.8 and 80,819.4, as this level of dollar increase does not change the direction. Conditions for bearish reversal: the dollar continues to strengthen, price closes below 79,321.8, and funding rate turns negative, which would indicate that the pressure has truly transmitted."Bearish calendar, just waiting for one weekly candle"
At 08:00 on October 26, if the second weekly candle closes below 83,000, the false breakout will be considered a hammer. In the following days, the price may retest the bull market support zone between just above 70,000 to 75,000, first sweeping the low point of September 15 before discussing a rebound.
At 02:00 on October 29, the Federal Reserve meeting will take place. If they hold steady but the PCE on the same day is relatively hot, long-term interest rates may rise, with the 10-year US Treasury yield possibly touching around 5.3%. The midterm elections will be held on November 3. By mid-November, if the stock market decline drags BTC down and long-term rates peak, the Q4 low point may finally take shape.
There is another supporting clue in the time window: local highs from July to October mostly fall around the 21st, except August which was delayed to September 3. Based on this, the current high point may be between October 21 and November 3. The sample size is only four, so it can only be used as a reference, not a strict rule.
The invalidation line for the entire scenario is very clear: if the weekly candle on October 26 closes back above 83,000, the bearish logic fails.Chatting at 4:30 AM about $BTC, $ETH, and the most volatile $ZEC in the market.
Tonight, $BTC surged to 80,509 but was pushed back near 79,900; $ETH touched 2,336 then retracted to 2,314. Only $ZEC held steady between 1,211–1,227 dollars, defying the trend.
Looking at the on-chain cards explains it:
The top four $BTC holders just added 2.15 million dollars in margin to hold firm against the trend; but after the foundation dumped during the day, $ETH saw a 2015 ICO giant whale with a cost basis of 0.31 dollars sell 1,500 coins (3.46 million dollars) tonight, still holding 48,500 coins (112 million dollars) unsold! Meanwhile, speculators are all betting on $ZEC's NU7 mainnet upgrade on November 5, with Unit's trading volume just breaking 2 billion dollars.
- $BTC: Heavy resistance above 80,500–82,000, avoid chasing rebounds; if it breaks 79,300, expect a move toward 75,000
- $ETH: Foundation and ancient whales are taking turns dumping, reduce positions if it rebounds to 2,350, break 2,280 and it heads straight to the 2,181 liquidation line
Before the market stabilizes above 82,000, mainstream assets are zones to reduce positions on rallies, don't use your principal to clash head-on with ancient chips!
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Everyone is focused on the Federal Reserve and Nvidia, but few are looking up at Brazil.
Lula won re-election, but tonight the Brazilian stock market didn’t rise; it plunged, dropping nearly fourteen points in one day, with Latin America following in the red. The market is voting with its feet—not on who was elected, but on concerns about fiscal policy: Fitch immediately stated that Brazil’s fiscal uncertainty is increasing.
I’m not telling you to trade Brazil; I’m reminding you of one thing: global risk appetite is interconnected. The emerging market storyline of "political settlement, fiscal reckoning" is essentially the same kind of anxiety as concerns over U.S. fiscal policy and AI financing—just different facets of the same worry. When some corner of the table starts repricing risk, don’t assume your $BTC holdings can completely stay out of it. The bigger the storm, the more you need to see the whole table, not just the few cards in front of you. #微软Azure增长43%，AI商业化能否提速？
Can Microsoft $MSFT surpass $4.82, which is higher than the mainstream consensus of $4.82?
The mainstream GAAP consensus centers around $4.71–$4.73, with FactSet at $4.71, Zacks at $4.71, Morgan Stanley at $4.73, and institutional aggregate at $4.72.
Meanwhile, $4.82 is 2%–2.5% above the consensus midpoint, at the upper edge of the consensus distribution, but some models directly mark the consensus at $4.82 (Chartmill, fffinstill), indicating that under optimistic scenarios this level has been reached.
Looking at historical beats, the frequency is very high, and the magnitude can cover the 2% gap.
Additionally, Microsoft has beaten EPS expectations for 16 consecutive quarters, with a 75% beat rate over the past 8 quarters and an average beat magnitude of about 7%–8%. The most recent Q4 FY2026 beat was +9.53%, and Q1 FY2026 was +10.46%.
Assuming a conservative recent low to cover the 2% gap to $4.82 is within the historical range, there is a reasonable chance to exceed expectations.
However, note that FY27 Q1 capital expenditures are expected to exceed $50 billion, with about $175 billion for the full year. Depreciation and cloud gross margin pressure will limit EPS upside elasticity. This is why the beat magnitude may not reach the past levels of over 10%, so surpassing $4.82 will require a "normal to strong" beat.Today there was no headline news, but the information was very significant: Bank of America, Blackstone, Citibank, and Morgan Stanley jointly set up a $63 billion financing structure for Broadcom, specifically to support AI computing power capacity.
My first reaction was not optimism, but a chill down my spine. If a business is making money smoothly, it doesn't need the four major Wall Street firms to come together and create such a complex leverage structure to help you buy chips. A real money printer can burn cash just fine relying on its own cash flow. When investment banks start doing financial engineering for "buying computing power," it often means that relying solely on operating cash flow, this game is about to run out of steam.
This is not to say AI is doomed, but the financing method for this round of capital expenditure is shifting from "paying out of pocket" to "borrowing money in relay." Remembering this turning point is far more useful than remembering whose earnings report beat or missed expectations.Storage stocks are the hottest traps this week. SK Hynix will release its Q3 earnings after the market closes tomorrow and has also announced a special dividend of over ten billion USD, causing its stock price to rise by 4% tonight, followed by a 3% increase in Micron.
Despite the excitement, my view on storage remains unchanged: it is the tail end of this AI capital expenditure chain. When machines are buying frantically, memory shines the most, but once the pace of capital expenditure eases, the tail end is always the first to feel the chill. The biggest gains often coincide with the most fully priced expectations.
Below is my position allocation for you to see—not for you to copy. Earnings reports are binary events; no one should be too certain before the results come out, so I keep my size light and have a strict stop-loss. The risk appetite for $BTC is actually tied to this AI chain, so don’t treat it as an independent market.Positive news triggers a pullback? Don't just look at one candlestick for $DOGE 🐕📉
Dogecoin Labs has finally officially announced: MyDoge wallet, DogeOS, and Such App payment have completed integration. Once the news broke, $DOGE surged to $0.0838, then pulled back from the high, and today it’s back around $0.078. Someone in the group immediately sighed: why does the secondary market always "price in the good news" whenever the ecosystem makes a big move? 🤔
Actually, it's not surprising. Short-term derivative funds love to use news to pump and then cash out; hot money profits from volatility, not the ecosystem vision. But for the project, application layer mergers and infrastructure integration are qualitative changes that ferment over months or even years. MyDoge’s over 500,000 active users and DogeOS’s EVM compatibility layer may not immediately reflect in the coin price in the short term, but they are the solid foundation that sets DOGE apart from pure hype Meme. 🧱
So it looks like this now: short-term funds are unloading, while the long-term ecosystem is laying the groundwork. If you only focus on candlesticks lasting a few minutes, you’ll definitely get left behind. Clean up your desk and wait for the evening session funds to respond ☕️👀#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Optimistic about Q3 itself (price and bits both rising, exceeding expectations is not difficult); but HBM4 is a "structural plus" for profitability rather than a "single-quarter leap," its more important value lies in supporting the continuation of high profit margins from the second half of the year through 2027 and delaying the cycle peak. Therefore, the stock price reaction after the earnings release depends on the Q4 guidance, especially dividends, and whether the market has already priced it in—if it is just "performance meeting expectations," the current weak trend may continue; if there is an above-expectation Q4 guidance plus buybacks/dividends, there is room for recovery. The above is information collation and analysis, not investment advice.📊 $BTC & $ETH: Three Key Checkpoints This Week
⚡ October 29 — FOMC: The baseline is to hold steady; the real focus is on the tone for December. If hawkish, risk assets will be pressured first, and crypto won't be able to stand apart.
📈 October 29 — PCE and Q3 GDP: Inflation continues to cool down, only then does $BTC have room to recover; if data sticks high, the rebound will be suppressed.
💰 October 30 — $11B $BTC Options Expiry: Large settlements tend to amplify volatility; the $83K–$85K range is the key focus for monitoring.
#OctFOMCDecisionThisWeek
In short: first watch the Fed's wording, then the inflation outlook, and finally guard against options expiry disruptions. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ Three large-cap crypto assets are telling three different valuation stories this week, and the divergences matter more than the price moves themselves. $ETH trades near 2318, down less than 1%, yet carries the heaviest liquidation load of the group at 41.86 million. Exchange outflows of 169,000 coins mark the largest in almost four months, but that bullish-sounding signal sits against October ETF redemptions above 1.2 billion dollars, now in a fourth consecutive week. The 2330 level failed to hooverall capital withdrawing and no new institutional long-term buying support. Market funds are waiting and watching for the Federal Reserve decision. Before the midterm election results are announced, it is difficult for the market to have a significant rebound.
Therefore, my personal trading strategy: short Bitcoin when it rebounds to 80500, targeting 79500-78500; short Ethereum when it rebounds to 2350, targeting 2300.
[The above views are for personal reference only and do not constitute 利At the fourth minute after perfusion stops, myocardial cells begin irreversible death.
The 40 billion GPU debt financing agreement on October 25th is essentially not financing, but a bypass surgery. SpaceX has two main blood supply trunks—Starlink subscription cash flow and launch service revenue. Dual perfusion allows it to maintain forward blood flow even when the credit market's aorta spasms. Meanwhile, more than 200 emerging AI cloud service providers mostly have only one vessel: computing power leasing. No collateral circulation.
This is the type of heart I am most wary of in preoperative assessments: the ejection fraction looks good, but the coronary artery has a single-vessel lesion with no compensatory pathway. Once the debt market clamps down on the main trunk, the distal myocardium immediately becomes ischemic. Musk himself read out the diagnosis—the credit has stopped perfusing computing power companies with no other income sources. This is not emotional fluctuation; this is perfusion pressure dropping to zero.
What’s more troublesome is the timing. The debt matures in the first half of 2027, which is a fixed reperfusion window. Myocardial ischemia has a time window; beyond that window, what is rescued is not contractile tissue but scar. The failure or consolidation of over 200 companies, translated into surgical terms, is necrotic tissue absorption and fibrosis—the market will not rebuild myocardium but will leave a non-beating patch in place.
I have seen too many such hearts. During preoperative talks, someone always asks if we can wait, wait for blood flow to recover on its own. We cannot. Ischemic myocardium does not self-heal; it only progresses from stunning to necrosis, from necrosis to transmural infarction. What really made me sit upright in front of the monitor was not the downward wave of the price curve but the synchronous widening of credit spreads—that signals rising central venous pressure and the start of pericardial effusion. Systolic pressure is still present, but stroke volume is already dropping.
Starlink and launch revenues have given this company an extracorporeal circulation machine, allowing it to complete operations even in cardiac arrest. Companies without this machine can only lie on the table, watching their perfusion time drain away second by second.
The distinction between compensation and decompensation has never been market cap but the number of blood supply sources. #spacex40bgpufinancingThe flow curve of the Strait of Hormuz has just started to rise, yet the load-bearing walls of the entire Middle East energy building are still cracking—this is not structural repair, it's merely hanging a curtain on the exterior wall. The Houthi forces claim missiles hit Saudi energy facilities and pipelines; Saudi Arabia confirms interception but damage has not been verified. Translated into construction site language: the rebar tying was photographed, but the concealed work has not been inspected, so no one should rush to remove the formwork.
The real foundation has never been the white paper; it is the physical routing of pipelines and the passage trajectories of fleets. The improvement in Hormuz flow looks like a main beam rebounding, but tanker rates and security costs remain high. This is temporary steel supports bearing the stress—until the supports are removed, costs won't come down. Brent closed at 116.72, WTI at 103.27; these two benchmark lines are not drawn by sentiment but are layered by every barrel of crude rerouted, every war risk premium, and every segment of pipeline outage risk.
Trump said the Iran conflict might end soon, which is equivalent to the client verbally promising early completion over drinks; Iran remains diplomatically open but no agreement has been reached, and the construction drawings haven't even been signed and sealed. The blueprint can be changed, but the load-bearing system cannot be altered by words. The Houthis' missiles are live loads, Saudi interceptions are energy-consuming nodes, and unverified damage means the structural calculations lack key parameters. As long as calculation items are missing, any "risk mitigation" is just facade decoration, not structural reinforcement.
Looking at the US stock token $xSKHY linkage, it is like an annex next to the main building, sharing the same bearing layer foundation. When energy prices fluctuate at high levels, the shear of risk premiums transmits through expected channels to the tokenized asset floor, causing follow-up settlement or local cracks. But whether the annex is safe is not judged by the curtain wall reflection but by whether the deformation joint between it and the main building is sufficient. Oil price volatility is that joint; if the gap is too narrow, the linkage becomes a rigid connection, and one shock causes all to crack.
What do design institutes fear most? The client taking renderings as as-built drawings, and temporary enclosures as permanent shear walls. The risks on the Middle East supply side are not smoothed over by news headlines but are pressed layer by layer into the foundation by pipeline wall thickness, fleet scheduling, insurance clauses, and geopolitical games. Flow recovery is just the concrete beginning to set; it is far from the formwork removal age. Tanker rates do not fall, security costs do not compress, and the so-called "mitigation" cannot even enter the load combination in the structural calculation book.
A foundation without concealed inspection records does not deserve to talk about lowering the benchmark. #OilFlowsRecover $100 held, $SOL looks fine. The lowest point on the last daily candle was about $99.88, closing at about $101.46. Looking only at the close, it is indeed still above $100.
But looking only at the close misses two things. First, fund flows are still outflowing. $SOL's ETF had a net outflow of about $17.3 million last week. This is the third consecutive week of outflows. The cumulative outflow in October is about $72.24 million. Second, technically it hasn't stabilized yet. $SOL is still below the 50-day moving average at about $105.99. The 200-day moving average at about $98.27 is just below. Futures open interest is about $6.2 billion, down from about $6.34 billion last week.
The network just completed the Alpenglow upgrade. Confirmation time was reduced from about 12 seconds to the target of about 150 milliseconds. The upgrade is real, but the price hasn't caught up yet, this needs to be distinguished.
So $100 is more like a psychological line now, not a safety line. If it breaks below $98.27, the next reference is about $86.67. Only by reclaiming $105.99 can it be considered to have stabilized again. $100 is the psychological line, $98.27 is the next challenge.SpaceX raised $40 billion and Musk warned of AI cloud credit cuts, reflecting that macro liquidity is being tightened by the AI narrative, putting pressure on risk appetite in the crypto market. SPCX is unlikely to remain unaffected. I judge the short-term trend to be slightly bearish with oscillation. On the four-hour chart, it has fallen more than 10% from 150.57, and the one-hour rebound is still 1.22% below the high, showing weak trend recovery; the top 10 order book buy-sell ratio is 0.66, with obvious selling pressure dominance, and the turnover is only 1.168 million, insufficient volume to support a reversal. The funding rate of 0.0057% remains positive, with 398,000 long positions still open and not withdrawn, indicating sentiment has not cleared, making the rebound prone to failure. Strategically, a light short position can be taken at a rebound to 149.65, with a stop loss at 151.35 and a target of 145.55; if it stabilizes near 144.95 on a pullback, a short-term long position can be taken, with a stop loss at 143.65 and a target of 148.35. Single position size should be controlled within 5%, and exit immediately if the position breaks.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$SPCX#SpaceX融资400亿美元，马斯克警告AI云断贷
#SpaceX融资400亿美元，马斯克警告AI云断贷
$SPCX On the eve of the FOMC: The market is not waiting for the decision, but for the words in December
$BTC is currently around $79,900 (Beijing time 04:05), slipping below $80,000 once again. It has dropped about 7% over the past week, but the real test is not tonight, but early Thursday morning.
According to FedWatch, the probability of the FOMC holding steady this time is about 90%, so there is little suspense; the real suspense lies in the roughly 80% chance of a rate hike in December, and whether Chairman Warsh will hint or tighten during the press conference. Jeff Mei from BTSE puts it bluntly: the decision itself is not important, what matters is the strength of the chairman's hint about the December rate hike.
Technically, QCP indicates: $BTC support at $78,000, resistance at $86,000; to restore buyer confidence, it must first reclaim $82,500. On the $ETH side, the spot ETF has seen net outflows for four consecutive weeks, with support around $2,150.
So before early Thursday morning, the tug-of-war around $80,000 will most likely continue—the direction will not be given by the decision, but by a single sentence.Day 47 of live trading, the account grew from 32,000 to 41,000, with stop losses triggered 3 times in between. Each stop loss and its screenshot are saved in the historical posts, you can look them up. What you can take away is a set of position management methods that never blew up the account, not just screenshots of returns.
I don't think BTC at 80,000 is the end point, but it is the consensus watershed. What really matters is not the price, but the two dividend-type Bitcoin ETFs submitted by Franklin Templeton. Spot ETFs solve the question of "can you buy," while dividend ETFs solve "how to get it into the reports after buying," which is much more attractive to pension funds and similar capital. The weight of this variable is much heavier than today's -0.7% drop.
I reduced ETH. The ETH/BTC rate is still going down, and the rebound at 2,318 is getting weaker each time. ENA's counter-trend +0.8% looks more like funds searching for alpha in small caps rather than flowing back to the mainstream. Currently, I hold 60% BTC, 20% ETH, and 20% cash, with ETH stop loss set at 2,180.
At this point, would you clear ETH to switch to BTC, or hold and wait for the rate to recover?
Follow me for daily public live trading positions and stop loss logic, I write honestly even when losing.
#OKXProphet Spot market weakens, contract longs hold firm: SOL funding rate turns negative, 76.4% of accounts still long! 📉
Signals from BTC, SOL, and XRP are inconsistent: prices are falling, but position structures diverge. 🧐
BTC | Price drops but positions increase, funding rate remains positive
BTC fell 3.7%, perpetual contract open interest rose to $7.72 billion, funding rate stays positive. Price decline with increased positions indicates new capital entering; whether it's bottom fishing or adding shorts is unclear for now. 📊
SOL | Funding rate turns negative, long-short structure splits
SOL's 8-hour average funding rate dropped to -0.021%. In the past 24 hours, longs liquidated about $17.3 million, shorts about $1 million. Notably, 76.4% of accounts remain long, but longs only account for 48.1% of active trading, showing a clear divergence between account direction and trading behavior. ⚠️
XRP | Undervalued, supply pressure persists
XRP's 365-day MVRV dropped to 0.92, indicating holders' average position value may be about 8% below cost. Exchange reserves still hold 11.81 billion tokens, valued around $15.7 billion. Undervaluation doesn't mean an immediate bottom, and reserves don't imply imminent selling. 🔍
Next, watch these three signals:
BTC: Whether open interest and positive funding rate persist during price drops; SOL: Whether the proportion of long accounts and active longs converge under negative funding; XRP: Whether MVRV and exchange reserves change in sync. 👀"Weekend Stuck in a Box"
The market these past two days has been a bit magical (｡•́︿•̀｡). The 24-hour volume clearly picked up over the weekend, but right after midnight on Sunday, trading seemed muted, instantly dropping gears. The price neither rises convincingly nor falls decisively; it just moves back and forth within a range, grinding patience away (￣▽￣)"
BTC has been stuck between 79,000 and 87,000 for two months, and ETH has also been sideways between 2,300 and 2,800 for two months. Two months is enough time for the market to complete a round of consolidation and brew a directional move. Whether it goes south or north still depends on what happens next. The bullish liquidity has already been swept once; whether it continues downward, I really can't guarantee (´･_･`)
The feeling now is: resistance above, support below, and patience being tested in the middle. Instead of guessing, it's better to wait for the market to give the answer itself. After all, in this stuck market, rushing is useless; first, keep your mindset steady (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
$BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ The US stock market opened today, everyone can closely watch SPY
$SPY
The 100-day moving average, which is around the 760 level, if it holds, the bull market continues; if it breaks down, it will be quite troublesome.
This price level resistance combined with a mid-term moving average forms a "double support," where bulls and bears will both show their stance.
There could be three possible scenarios:
First, hold at 760 with a volume rebound.
If it pulls back to 758–760 and finds support, closing steadily above, it indicates the mid-term trend is intact. At this time, the pullback is a buying opportunity, prioritizing tech leaders with earnings beating expectations.
Second, oscillate around 760.
Earnings are mixed, and the market is waiting for macro data to set direction. At this time, chasing highs or selling lows is most discouraged; it's better to control position size and wait for a clear direction before acting.
Third, effectively break below 758 and fail to recover.
Losing the 100-day moving average means the mid-term structure weakens, and funds may accelerate withdrawal from tech stocks, shifting to defensive or value sectors like energy and finance.
At this point, reduce positions first and don’t rush to bottom-fish.
How to judge an "effective break"?
Look at the closing price, not an intraday wick;
Close below 758 for two consecutive trading days;
Volume expands on the break, and the rebound fails to recover above.🔥Traditional financial giants have started to back Bitcoin in the most "blunt" way, and this is actually quite interesting to ponder🤔
Franklin Templeton just completed the Nasdaq listing registration for two ETFs, effective October 27. The tickers are FBEQ and FIBT, initially 95% US stocks + 5% Bitcoin. The coolest part is the mechanism: the dividends you receive from the stocks are not paid out in cash; instead, on the day after the ex-dividend date at market open, the company uses the full dividend amount to buy Bitcoin for you.
What does this mean? You buy US stocks and receive dividends, but the compounding engine is quietly switched to BTC. During quarterly rebalancing, if Bitcoin's weight exceeds 5%, it is cut back to 4.5%; if it spikes over 20%, forced reduction happens within two days. FBEQ's management fee is only 0.09%, with no 12b-1 fees, clearly aiming to capture scale.
Why is this clever? It neither forces you to open a wallet nor deal with custody, and it embeds "long-term holding" into the product structure. Traditional financial pipelines are starting to pour liquidity into crypto assets. But don't forget, at its core, it's still a stock fund, with Bitcoin just the "enhancement" tamed by the rules🐶. Don't get excited just about the 5% allocation; first, think carefully whether you want dividends or that volatility.
Understand the mechanism before getting on board; it's much more important than blindly following the trend💡
$BTC $ETH Before the FOMC, don't rush to bet on the direction (´･_･`)
The market before the FOMC is like a pot of boiling water; don't rush to bet on the direction. BTC is tugging back and forth around 80,000, with a low of 79,280. Consecutive daily declines have turned 80,000 from support into a contested zone; 24-hour total network liquidations are about 578 million, with bulls accounting for 91%, retail long-short ratio at 0.4861, liquidation heating up but open interest increasing. ETF net inflow for the week is 301 million, but 773 million flowed out at the end of the week. 79,200 is the short-term defense line; only a rebound above 82,000 looks like a recovery (ง •̀_•́)ง.
ETH tells a different story: low at 2,276, currently around 2,320, down over 12% in October; bulls account for 74% of liquidations; ETH ETF outflow of 1.18 billion in October; Hayes liquidation and upgrade delay weigh on sentiment. The long-short ratio remains 2.46, fueling more downside; losing 2,300 targets 2,220, with open interest over 30 billion possibly amplifying liquidations (｡•́︿•̀｡).
In short: BTC is grinding, ETH is paying back; before the FOMC boot drops, holding through the fluctuations is more crucial than guessing the rise or fall (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
$BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
#中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？
🔥 Folks, hasn't the recent crude oil trend been a bit counterintuitive? 🤔 News says that shipping volumes from the Persian Gulf have returned to over 90% of pre-war levels, and Saudi exports are even stronger than before the conflict. But looking at the market, Brent is still hovering around $110, showing no sign of dropping.
The core issue here is: "Being able to ship" doesn't mean "shipping cheaply" 💸. Tankers are back, but detours, ship-to-ship transfers, and shadow fleets have driven freight costs through the roof — shipping costs from the Middle East to Asia once soared to $34 to $37 per barrel, more than twenty times the normal level. Refiners are paying not just for oil, but also for freight and insurance, so the landed cost simply won't come down.
The second strong support is that inventories are too thin 📉. U.S. commercial crude inventories have declined for three consecutive weeks, now about 3% below the five-year average. With inventories this tight, even a weekly drop of a few million barrels tightens the market, not to mention the Strait of Hormuz ships still occasionally getting hit.
In short, part of the current oil price is a risk premium; the market is betting that geopolitical tensions might flare up again after the elections. Supply numbers have returned, but the "sense of security" hasn't, so oil prices naturally remain stuck high 🔥. $CL $BZ Bulls were just wiped out during the day, and bears got hit again at night 😵. CoinGlass shows that in the past 24 hours, about $109 million worth of contracts were liquidated across the network, with longs around $45.5 million and shorts about $63.43 million—bears actually suffered more; in the same period, BTC had a net outflow of about $166 million, ETH about $114 million. At the time of writing, BTC is around 80,597, ETH around 2,344. My view: bears continuing to get hit feels more like leveraged noise within a rebound, while sustained spot outflows are the real signal 📉. Liquidations amplify short-term volatility, but whether funds are willing to flow back in determines if the rebound can hold. If BTC and ETH spot continue net outflows, chasing shorts and getting hurt won’t change the weakness; conversely, if spot outflows stop and shorts cover, that’s when sustainability is more likely. So going forward, I’m focusing more on spot flows 👀, treating short liquidations only as a sentiment thermometer.$BTC 11.1 million bitcoins, Galaxy can't find the owners.
20.1 million bitcoins have been mined. In Galaxy's October snapshot, 55% cannot be linked to any named entity. Not exchanges, not funds, not governments.
Entry belongs to institutions, holdings belong to individuals.
Among the 45% with names, there are exchanges, ETFs led by BlackRock, the US government, and Satoshi Nakamoto's 1.123658 million bitcoins, accounted for separately.
Is that 55% all retail self-custody? No. It includes lost keys that can never be recovered, early miners' coins, unidentified institutions and OTC desks, and complex custody splitting coins into many addresses. Galaxy is upfront about this.
But after the disclaimer, the ledger remains the same. ETFs have been buying for two years, headlines daily report institutional inflows, yet the largest on-chain holding still has no name to this day.
Entry belongs to institutions, holdings belong to individuals. #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ $BTC shows a fairly consistent pattern around FOMC meetings.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
Looking at the past eight meetings shown here, the trend direction in the week before the announcement is opposite to the trend direction in the week after the announcement.
An increase before the meeting is followed by a decrease. After a negative week leading into the meeting, a positive week follows.
It’s important to understand that a large amount of position adjustments happen before the announcement.
In other words, it is "priced in."
We have consistently seen these directional changes around rate cuts, holds, and hikes.
So far, BTC has already retraced 7% entering the meeting. However, the deeper it falls, the more people expect this direction to continue.
If history repeats itself, we will continue to see a bloodbath this week, followed by a green week next week.#Strive increased its BTC holdings by 6,182 coins in one week, so I'll first calculate the capital cost of this purchase
Strive disclosed on October 26 that it added 6,182 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 43,000 BTC, and established a preferred stock issuance plan with a maximum of $1 billion. Seeing such a large purchase scale, I can understand why the market is excited. However, the related preferred stock carries a 15% annual dividend, which made me pause to do the math: BTC itself does not generate cash income, so what supports the ongoing payments? I will look at the growth in BTC holdings, BTC per share, and cash reserves together. The financing capacity can expand the ability to buy more BTC, but how much shareholders ultimately receive still needs further calculation.Only one coin in the entire market is still above the moving average line, which is more worth watching than the big drop itself. Guess what everyone is waiting for now — a rebound, or have they already lost interest? I scanned the market today, and except for $ZEC, almost everything is weak; $BTC and $ETH are both dragging behind. As soon as liquidity returned in the morning session, it was smashed down. Although it pulled back in the afternoon, that recovery was on low volume, looking more like a breather than a real turnaround. This kind of movement is the most frustrating because it doesn’t give a clear move, only hesitation. First, look at $ZEC, it’s currently the only one still holding up. RSI at 50.2 has returned to neutral territory, surprisingly the highest in the market; MA7 crossed above MA20 at 1228 over 1204, so the short-term structure is indeed cleaner than other coins. But don’t get too excited yet — it’s still capped by MA30 at 1268, and far from the previous high of 1697. In short, this is relative strength, not absolute strength, the kind that looks strong only because others are weaker. This "best among the short" narrative easily misleads people into thinking funds have returned, but actually, no one wants to sell first. $BTC is even more subtle. It’s grinding repeatedly near the bottom of the 30-day range, RSI at 44.3 is weak, MA7 < MA20 < MA30, and the 81.6k to 82.9k area is full of resistance. The 7-day average volume is only 57%, low volume grinding sounds like bottom building, but it could also mean no one is buying. As long as it doesn’t break above 82900 on volume, the structure remains downward. My own feeling is, at this positionBitcoin is slightly bearish in the short term; in the next few hours, I expect a pullback with active sell orders suppressing the rebound. Ethereum is slightly bullish in the short term; during the same period, I expect a rebound first, with buy orders more aggressive than sell orders. Bitcoin's low in the past 12 hours was 79,455.80, and the high was 80,849.90. There are clearly more bulls than bears, but among the addresses I monitor, active sell orders are much heavier, with simultaneous increases in shorts, conversions from long to short, and reductions in longs. Being bullish does not equal buying more. After the price bounced from the lower boundary but failed to hold the middle range, the money chasing the buy was not received, so a pullback is not surprising. I do not use large unclear transactions to determine direction. Next, I will watch if the lower boundary can hold. Ethereum's low in the past 12 hours was 2,296.05, and the high was 2,344.54. Ethereum is the opposite; active buy orders dominate, and there are large short reductions, indicating someone is absorbing at this level. However, reducing shorts only means bears are exiting, not new longs opening; the price is still in the lower half of the range, some distance from the upper boundary. If buy orders can continue, the short-term rebound will go further. I will not chase before it recovers the upper boundary; first, I will see if the next wave of buy orders remains. I will watch if Bitcoin's lower boundary can hold and if Ethereum's buy orders can continue; if Bitcoin's sell orders shrink and Ethereum's buy orders retreat, I will not view it this way.