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#OctFOMCDecisionThisWeek
The price movement of $BTC before and after the FOMC might be repeating a pattern.
Looking back at the past 8 meetings, BTC often moves in opposite directions one week before and one week after the meeting. It rises in advance and then pulls back after the event; it falls in advance and may rebound afterward.
Currently, $BTC has retraced about 7% before the meeting, and market expectations and position adjustments may have already reflected part of this.
If the historical rhythm repeats, volatility may continue to increase this week, and there could be a chance for recovery next week.
Of course, historical patterns do not guarantee repetition; the key is still to watch Powell's wording and capital flows.
$ETH $ZEC #FOMC$LAYER $SOL Damn it! SOL got slammed hard this round, dropping straight down to 101.91. The manipulative whales are playing dirty with this shakeout, blatantly dumping money to create panic, just trying to shake out the weak hands. 💡
Watching the chart, volume clearly shrinks at this level, panic selling is almost fully flushed out, and the signs of accumulation by the main players are obvious. I'm planning to secretly set up long positions around 101.91, with a strict stop loss below 98.5—if it breaks that, I'll admit defeat and exit, no stubborn holding.
Don’t rush to go all in; buy in batches and keep some ammo to breathe. If you want to join me in waiting for this rebound, check the market card below to watch the order book, control your position size, and always use stop losses. Whether we can profit depends on whether the whales give us a break. 🔥
This content is just my personal review and does not constitute investment advice.
👇👇👇I wonder if everyone has noticed the gold market; this wave has been quite interesting, repeatedly testing the bottom within a week, then forcefully pulling back from the low and stabilizing above the range. This alone proves that large funds are very determined to support safe-haven assets. Once the market falls, a large volume of buying support will immediately appear.
From the crypto perspective, Bitcoin formed a double bottom at a critical level, with intense back-and-forth consolidation. At that time, many in the market were convinced the market would crash directly. Gold withstands the decline because of its inherent hard currency nature; similarly, behind Bitcoin’s market, massive overseas institutions are continuously investing heavily to accumulate and firmly protect the bottom. Gold defends key price levels, and the main players keep collecting chips at lows. The capital logic behind both markets is almost identical.
However, risks cannot be ignored. Gold’s indicators have reached a high region, indicating a short-term need for a pullback and consolidation; after Bitcoin’s rebound, it also directly hit resistance from the moving average band.
The approach can be grasped like this: as long as the previous lows of gold and Bitcoin are not effectively broken, the current phase belongs to a bottom consolidation range. Don’t hastily sell your blood-stained chips before the main upward trend starts. Ethereum is currently in a critical defense battle, and SOL is also stuck at a life-or-death support line. Hold your spot positions steadily and patiently; if trading contracts, be sure to control your actions and wait until the overall direction becomes completely clear,History shows Bitcoin has faced corrections around U.S. midterm elections. Will 2026 repeat the pattern, or break the cycle? This Week Could Decide The Next Big Move: ▶️ Oct 28: Fed Rate Decision + $MSFT & $GOOGL Earnings ▶️ Oct 29: U.S. Q3 GDP + PCE Inflation + $AMZN & $INTC Earnings ▶️ ~20% Of S&P 500 Companies Report Earnings Fed Signals, Inflation, Big Tech AI Spending & Election Uncertainty Collide In ONE Week. Meanwhile, BTC Is Holding Near A Major Long-Term Support Zone. Will History Rep$BEAT climbed from 0.0668 to 0.0862 last night, hitting a 24-hour high increase of 29%, now at 0.079. The driver wasn't spot trading, but a perpetual contract without spot backing.
OKX doesn't have BEAT spot; checking spot shows 51001, only 10x perpetual. This one contract traded $18.2 million in 24 hours; by CoinGecko's measure, the entire market (including DEX) only traded $4.87 million in a day.
The volume explosion happened at 23:00 on the 1H candle: $7.11 million, compared to $1.6 million the previous hour. Open interest rose from $3.16 million to $4.39 million (+39%), indicating new positions entering, not shorts being squeezed — funding rates have been stuck at the floor 0.005% for 8 consecutive periods.
Depth is problematic: combined buy and sell orders across 20 levels total less than $3,000, with about $440 in the top 5 levels. Posting $5,000 orders gets absorbed immediately.
Dilution is another issue: circulating supply is 353 million, total supply 1 billion, FDV is 2.83 times the market cap. On August 1, $67.8 million unlocked (KuCoin announced on July 25), after which the price dropped from the August 2 high of 6.18 to 0.13 on August 20, with a single-day drop of -54% on August 11.
If you chase now, at what price do you plan to exit? Right now, this game is a break-even situation, basically a frustrating grind.
If you keep trading continuously, it's easy to give back the profits you made earlier; if you don't trade continuously, it feels like there's nothing to do. Scalping sounds simple, but actually winning several rounds in a row is tough, let alone doing it long-term.
If you don't let the bot run, what can a person staring at the screen do? You get itchy hands and place orders, then regret it afterward.
The idea is simple: start compounding slowly with a very small position, but the premise is no big losses. If your win rate can't improve, don't force it—you're burning both your capital and your mindset.
The big coin (BTC) just won't go down. Remember around 799 and 796, these are important levels (to be verified, don't treat them as ironclad prices). If you really want to look for scalping opportunities, wait until it truly breaks down. As for why it can't break down—probably because the pigs haven't all boarded yet; once all the pigs are on board, then it will really break.
#TradingNotes Whale Alert reported twice within half an hour that “645 $BTC left Coinbase Institutional,” and the comment section is again shouting about institutions withdrawing and locking up coins.
I checked on-chain: both transactions are exactly 645.86666808 coins, precise to the satoshi, one at 18:22 and the other at 18:48, both going into the same wallet.
It's still this one: bc1qzl6f…gs64f7, the one I wrote about on 10/20.
Since activation on September 28, it has transferred out 37 times, totaling 15,995 #BTC, all 37 times returning to the same Coinbase address 3MqUP6…XFd.
At 16:34 today, its balance was only 266 coins; now it’s 1,703.98 coins (about 137 million USD). The last two times it piled up to around 2,000 coins, both were sent back in one go around 11 PM that night.
In my view, this is still Coinbase’s own sub-wallet, not someone scooping up coins. Whether it goes back tonight, we’ll see on-chain."Price Drop with Increased Positions and Positive Funding Rate: The Most Fragile Moment for the Bull Structure"
Market Situation:
$BTC is weakly oscillating between 79,200 and 80,600, trading below the 1H moving average; $ETH hovers between 2,280 and 2,350, RSI around 40, momentum is weak.
Spot Market:
BTC ETF weekly net inflow is 301 million, but there was an outflow of 636 million on Thursday and 138 million on Friday, showing fluctuating funds; ETH has a weekly outflow of 221 million, bleeding for four consecutive weeks.
Futures:
BTC open interest (OI) rose 2.05% to 7.72 billion, funding rate +0.0031%, bulls are still holding positions; ETH OI dropped 2.9% to 5.37 billion, long-short ratio 2.6–2.7, still crowded. 24h long liquidations totaled 443 million: BTC 154 million, ETH 136 million.
My Perspective:
BTC price falls, OI rises, funding rate positive, stop-loss support below thickens. Watch 79,200 first; if broken, look to 78,000. ETH key level is 2,181: a whale’s 272 million long liquidation price was just pushed down here by additional margin, less than 5% from current price, acting as a trigger for passive selling pressure.
My Observation:
BTC funding rate turning negative has more bottom significance than a simple breakdown; for ETH, watch if OI continues to shrink. Do not chase shorts, do not catch falling knives.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 表面看是BTC在扛旗，底下那股逆势加仓的劲儿才更有意思🍓 热闹和结构，到底哪个在说真话？ 刷到Hyperliquid上那个地址0xf08…9e39e又动了。今天追加2.15百万美元保证金，把BTC多单加到302.5枚，总仓位来到795.02枚、约6365万美元，开仓均价81168.6，眼下浮亏87.8万。这单从10月23日就开着，30倍杠杆，跌了不砍反而补，摆明了在赌方向而不是赌波动。 我盯这种动作，不是看他勇不勇，而是看情绪的温度。逆势加仓这件事本身，说明有一部分人还愿意在回调里接刀，风险偏好没有彻底缩回去。同地址还拿着4717枚ZEC、约567万美元，开仓价1195.7，这就有意思了——BTC是压舱石，ZEC是弹性仓，一个稳一个野，典型的高风险偏好组合。 但热闹归热闹，结构上要打个问号。BTC这边是杠杆多头在硬撑，ETH和山寨若没有同步走强，这种强就只是局部强，不是全面回暖。真正健康的轮动，应该是BTC稳住、ETH跟上、山寨才敢扩散；现在更像是少数资金在单点下注，情绪被点燃了一角，却没烧到全场。 偏多的路径很清楚：只要BTC不破关键支撑，这类高杠杆多头会强化"跌不动"的叙事，吸引$BTC shows a fairly consistent pattern around FOMC meetings.
Looking at the past eight meetings shown here, the trend direction in the week before the announcement is opposite to the trend direction in the week after the announcement.
If it rises before the meeting, it falls afterward.
A negative week leading into the meeting is followed by a positive week.
It’s important to understand that a large amount of position adjustments happen before the announcement.
In other words, it is "priced in."
We have consistently seen these directional changes around rate cuts, holds, and hikes.
So far, BTC has already retraced 7% entering the meeting. However, the deeper it falls, the more people expect this direction to continue.
If history repeats itself, we will continue to see a bloodbath this week, turning green next week.
$ETH $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #微软Azure增长43%，AI商业化能否提速？ Azure's growth maintaining around 45% is not difficult, but Copilot's revenue cannot cover the depreciation hole of AI infrastructure.
Azure is the foundation, Wall Street expects 44%–46%, and Goldman Sachs even sees 47%. Copilot is also moving, with over 30 million paid seats and AI annualized revenue of $37 billion; commercialization is not just empty talk.
But the numbers don't add up. This quarter's capital expenditure exceeded $50 billion, with a full-year guidance of $255 billion–$260 billion, and gross margin has already been squeezed from 71% to about 68%. Goldman Sachs predicts free cash flow will plunge from $67 billion to $40.1 billion, while Stifel is even harsher, projecting the fiscal year 2027 gross margin at 63%, well below the consensus of 66.5%.
So don't be dazzled by the 43% or 45% growth rate. Azure's growth is the surface, Copilot's commercialization is the substance, but depreciation and cash flow are the trump cards. If the trump cards continue to deteriorate, no matter how stable the growth rate is, the valuation cannot hold. $MSFT #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Retail trading enthusiasm, options, and prediction markets are the core of this round of growth. However, trading revenue heavily depends on market volatility, and once the market stabilizes, activity can easily decline.
Synchronized positions: Long $NFLX perpetual, patiently awaiting Netflix's earnings to materialize.#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ The growth rate is really fierce, the money burn is really intense, and the high growth of the cloud business won't save free cash flow in the short term.
Revenue growth is very strong, with Google Cloud's Q3 revenue expected to exceed $29 billion, with growth soaring above 90%. But the cost is that capital expenditures have been pushed up to $195 billion to $205 billion, directly causing free cash flow to turn negative for the first time in more than twenty years last quarter (-$5.86 billion). And this money still needs to keep burning because of the bottleneck in computing power; the cloud business has to give way to internal AI research.
So don't just look at the 82% growth; the key is whether the profit margin can hold up. Management has already warned that renting third-party computing power will squeeze profit margins. If revenue grows without profit growth, the market will only see this as a bottomless pit. $GOOGL $PI has three ways the market values it
$BTC is valued through scarcity, liquidity, and its potential role as a crypto reserve asset. Institutional flows are important.
$ETH is valued through on-chain activity: stablecoins, decentralized finance, fees, and ecosystem capital.
$SOL carries a growth narrative: users, transactions, applications, and liquidity must expand to support higher valuations.
Same market, but different frameworks. Price is the outcome; capital flows and real activities 🚨 Bitcoin and War: Why Do Peace Messages Sometimes Drive the Market Higher More Than War Escalations? 🌍 On October 21, an unconfirmed rumor suddenly spread in the market: the US and Iran might reach a peace agreement. The market barely waited before reacting swiftly. 📈 In less than an hour, Bitcoin surged quickly from $81,000 to $84,000, while Brent crude oil fell more than 3% during the day's trading. ⚡ Shortly after, officials denied the related news, and Bitcoin's gains quickly faded, with the price retreating. 🔍 But what truly deserves attention is not this brief rise and fall, but the logic the market revealed during that hour: the market trades not just on political news, but on the potential impact of that news on inflation, interest rates, and liquidity. 📊 What do nine peace signals reveal? Over the past six months, there have been nine signals around the easing of US-Iran relations, including peace agreement rumors, the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and progress in negotiations. 📈 According to this data set, on these nine trading days with peace signals, Bitcoin closed higher on eight days, with an average gain of 1.74%. 📉 In contrast, on the only trading day with a clear escalation signal, Bitcoin fell by 3.08%. 💡 These numbers do not prove that peace news will always push Bitcoin higher, but they raise a thought-provoking question: are traders overly focused on the war itself, yet not[Whale Position Monitoring] 🐋
$ETH dipped to about 2282 overnight, this massive ETH long position is only about $30 away from liquidation, making the situation quite tense 😮. In the early morning, it quickly added about 9.21 million USDC, pushing the liquidation price from around 2256 down to about 2181, effectively giving itself an extra buffer.
Currently, the total long positions are about $396.5 million: $ETH approximately 115,473 coins (about $272.1 million), BTC about 1,539.5 coins (about $124.4 million). Compared to the previous roughly 93,184 ETH longs, nominally about $214 million, with unrealized losses around $18.62 million, and funding fees paid about $2.68 million, this position is under considerable pressure 😬. At the time of writing, BTC is about 80,467, ETH about 2,333, still about $152 above the 2181 liquidation line.
The key signal is: after adding margin, the position was not reduced and is still open. My bet leans towards "continuing to add" 🤏, but the premise is that ETH does not rapidly drop to 2181 again; if the market tests the level a second time and sentiment weakens, it’s possible that part of the ETH longs will be liquidated first ⚖️. This is not safe, it just postpones the fuse a bit. 🔥#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
The profit figures for the Q3 earnings report will most likely "pass," mainly relying on price increases for DRAM and HBM3E, with HBM4 not yet being the main profit driver for the quarter. HBM4 can be profitable, but the pace varies: Samsung's single product profit margin is higher (around 50%-60%) but on a smaller scale; SK Hynix has a larger scale but faces downside risk to profit margins in 2027.
The key to the earnings report trade is not the 107 trillion/77 trillion figures themselves, but the three guidance points from the conference call: HBM4's revenue share in Q4 and 2027, HBM pricing assumptions for 2027, and the scale of shareholder returns.
My prediction: Q3 will most likely "pass the numbers but leave the narrative undecided." If management uses conservative language regarding HBM4's profitability pace, the stock price may remain lukewarm in the short term; only if it is clearly stated that HBM4 will significantly ramp up from Q4 and Samsung signals continuous yield improvements will the current extreme valuation of about 3x PE have a chance to trigger a recovery.$BONK
A $28.5 million portfolio, down 69%, left with $8.9 million. This is Bonk Guy's performance today, posted by himself, and he still says he remains optimistic about a rebound.
Half the comments are laughing, half are sour. My first reaction to the numbers is that this guy at least didn’t use leverage; despite such a drop, he’s still in the game.
BONK current price is 0.000003051, 24-hour high and low are 0.000003105 and 0.000002955, fee rate 0.0044%, with a position size totaling $2.13 million. This position size doesn’t match BONK’s fame; funds have indeed retreated from memes.
I also heavily invested in memes early on, made money but lost it all and then some; since then, I’ve learned to treat it like a lottery ticket, not an asset.
I respect that he dares to show his losses; most people only show their gains. In this market, staying alive is more important than anything.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $ZEC
In the middle of the night, I came across a rather quiet piece of news: Zcash Labs released a JavaScript development toolkit. It got less than a few dozen shares, and almost no one looked at the comments.
I actually think this is worth noting. ZEC is currently hovering around 1232, with a 24-hour high and low of 1268 and 1177, respectively, so the volatility isn't small. The perpetual fee rate is only 0.0087%, and the bulls haven't rushed to pay, indicating that the price push isn't driven by contract leverage. The open interest is 110,000 coins, roughly equivalent to 137 million USD, so it's not crowded.
I have participated in privacy coins during this wave; last time ZEC surged, I chased it once, set a tight stop loss, got stopped out, and didn't hold on. I remember that trade quite clearly.
There aren't many privacy coins whose developers are still diligently coding; ZEC is one of them. Whether the market is hot or not is another matter, but the toolchain is solidly in place. I'll keep it in my watchlist and wait for a pullback.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC fell below $80,000! ETF buying can't save Bitcoin, is the real selling pressure still ahead?
$BTC dropped below $80,000, and the market has finally torn off the so-called bull market facade!
Last week, although cryptocurrency ETFs recorded a net inflow of $59.9 million, this amount of capital is far from enough to prove the market has reversed. More strikingly, BTC ETFs increased by $294.7 million, while ETH ETFs decreased by $205.6 million, showing a clear divergence in funds.
What is truly worrisome is that the supply of BTC held by long-term holders decreased by 50,017 coins, while ETF purchases were only about 3,700 coins. According to this data, the reduction in supply by long-term holders is about 13.5 times the amount purchased by ETFs.
What does this mean?
ETFs are buying, but the old players are selling! $BTC
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ The "Point Illusion" of Re-Staking: Behind High Yields, Who Is Really Paying?
After the "double yield" of re-staking fades, the gap between actual fees and inflation release is the only measure to test value capture.
$EIGEN (EigenLayer)
ELIP-012 has been implemented: a 20% fee is charged on AVS rewards subsidized, and 100% of the actual protocol fees from EigenCloud are routed to the buyback contract. The mechanism direction is correct, but scale is a hard constraint—current protocol monthly revenue is about $650,000, while the monthly unlocked new supply of EIGEN is about 36.82 million tokens (approximately $8.5 million). The absolute amount of buybacks is still small relative to the unlocked release, resulting in limited net deflationary effect; the majority of staker rewards still come from inflation incentives.
$ETHFI: The revenue structure has diversified, with card payments contributing 65%, no longer relying solely on staking spreads. But buyback execution remains the core variable—mid-term it was significantly reduced, and after resuming in September, the scale is still below expectations, while the team continues linear unlocking.
$PENDLE: No inflated point promises. Up to 80% of real fees are hard buybacks, with inflation suppressed to 0.2%. Yields are generated from real trading, not airdrop expectations.
Conclusion:
When examining re-staking protocols, first check if buyback amounts can outpace unlocked releases. If not, it remains a paper transition period; only when scale continuously covers inflation can the closed loop be considered established. $BTC seems to have stabilized around 80,000, but the market is performing theatrics and the data isn't cooperating📉: about 64% of net long positions are built above 81,993; after breaking below, longs liquidated $85.9 million, shorts only $9.16 million. Simply put, longs are cutting losses, shorts are collecting rent.
QCP provides support at 78,000 and resistance at 86,000; $ETH ETF holders' cost is concentrated between 80,000 and 81,500. 80,000 feels more like a psychological barrier for holders, not a solid bottom⚠️. Once broken, the ETF crowd might also loosen up.
Options are signaling too: 1-day 25 Delta Skew at 11.3%, demand for downside protection is heating up🛡️. Smart money buys insurance first, not rushing to bet on a rebound.
Before the FOMC, the more crowded the leveraged longs, the easier they become prey for shorts🧠. Don't mistake a rebound for a reversal.
In short: before the FOMC, BTC long positions are basically an ATM for shorts. Don't be the one getting drained. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ Privacy and post-quantum narratives are heating up, and the cross-chain privacy linkage between $ZEC and $NEAR deserves a fresh look.
The privacy shortcoming of cross-chain swaps lies in this: when swapping $ZEC via NEAR Intents, the refund address often leaves traces on the public chain, making it easier to track with the support of AI computing power. The ZEC node development team proposed a solution to automatically generate a one-time private key for each swap through NEAR. Even if future quantum computing breaks a refund address, it can only see isolated single transactions, making it difficult to trace back to the main wallet and core assets.
More crucial is the timing difference. ZEC originally planned a network upgrade in January next year to introduce post-quantum signatures for transparent address pools; meanwhile, this cross-chain privacy patch is expected to be launched on software wallets within the next few weeks. This effectively plugs the public key exposure in cross-chain scenarios before the "post-quantum exam."
From a narrative perspective, this not only strengthens $ZEC's fundamentals as a privacy leader but also provides a security endorsement for $NEAR's cross-chain infrastructure. This overlooked technical progress could become a hidden catalyst for the privacy sector.BTC looks lively around the 80,000 mark, but behind the scenes, funds have been tugging back and forth.
Is it big players supporting the bottom and defending the market, or just stabilizing sentiment to create a false rebound illusion?
In the past few days, the price has stubbornly hovered around 80,000, testing back and forth. On the surface, it seems like it's gathering strength, but in reality, chips are just changing hands. On-chain data clearly shows long-term funds quietly absorbing 770 million worth of chips, slowly accumulating while ready to exit at any moment. This isn’t a simple tug-of-war between bulls and bears; everyone’s ideas haven’t aligned yet.
Currently, this is a divergent market—not the start of a new rally, nor the time for major players to sell off. 80,000 is the most important psychological support this week. The meeting next Tuesday is very unlikely to adjust policies, so heavily betting on a one-sided direction isn’t cost-effective.
If 80,000 holds steady, after the news settles, funds will likely flow from BTC into platform tokens and infrastructure sectors. This will probably only cause localized catch-up gains, making a broad explosive rally unlikely.
Risks must also be remembered: these short-term funds are ready to dump at any time. Once they flee en masse, small-cap and low-liquidity coins will fall faster than anyone can imagine.
Next, focus on observing fund preferences: whether they continue to stay in stable targets or are willing to chase high-volatility assets. Before signals become clear, chasing highs casually can easily mean buying right at the peak of sentiment.
Right now, it’s a phase of both consolidation and divergence coexisting. Timing the rhythm correctly is more crucial than guessing price ups and downs.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Gold price falls below $4000, this is not a skin abrasion, but a sudden drop of the average arterial pressure in the circulatory system below the perfusion threshold. Spot gold has lost about 4% this week, turning the critical perfusion pressure of $4000/oz into an alarm line; Middle East uncertainties act like vasopressors, but when volume is insufficient, vasopressors cannot replace blood volume.
Gold in this circulation is more like reserve capacity and risk-hedging perfusion. Inflation worries driven by oil prices and interest rate expectation swings are equivalent to afterload and vascular tension tightening simultaneously, increasing myocardial oxygen consumption, while selling pressure continues to drain blood. The liquidity demand during heightened volatility is like emergency intraoperative blood recovery: investors sell gold for cash, not because the lesion disappears, but due to central redistribution under sympathetic excitation, with peripheral perfusion sacrificed first.
Looking at the US stock token $XPL, it cannot be treated as an independent organ. It is the peripheral capillary of the same circulatory system; when gold price breaks key levels, risk assets may have liquidity drained; market depth, trading volume, funding rates, slippage, and correlation are its monitors. If gold price decline is accompanied by rising interest rate expectations, $XPL resembles compensatory tachycardia under low perfusion: a price bounce does not mean cardiac output recovery.
The real diagnosis is whether this downturn is due to failure of safe-haven demand or hypovolemic shock caused by liquidity drainage. Middle East risks failing to support gold price indicates insufficient vasopressor dosage or faster blood loss; oil prices and interest rate expectations represent sustained afterload, and cash demand is a covert form of blood loss. Whether safe-haven demand can recover support depends on whether gold can push the average arterial pressure back above the threshold, not on a single rebound candlestick's ECG artifact.
Until perfusion pressure stabilizes and lactate declines, any linked rebound of $XPL is only compensation, not successful reperfusion. #goldfallsbelow$4000#SpaceX secures $40 billion financing commitment, but I'm more curious about how long it will take to recoup this money
On October 26, SpaceX announced a GPU financing lease commitment of about $40 billion, expected to close by the end of the year, with equipment delivery and lease start scheduled for the first half of next year. This move boosts my confidence in its ability to acquire computing power, but it also shifts my focus to cash flow: after the equipment is installed, can customers continue to pay, and will the revenue cover the lease payments? The AI industry nowadays easily proves strength through financing scale, but I prefer to measure that strength by equipment utilization and cash recovery speed.Samsung Electronics' Q3 profit forecast is like a flash general rushing out from the king's wing diagonal; the year-on-year profit surge is just smoke on the chessboard, while the real killer move is hidden in the advancement of the fourth-generation high-bandwidth memory pawn chain. The full game record will be revealed on October 29, with the first move already showing a material advantage: AI memory demand continues to heat up, and the shipment pace, memory pricing, and profitability across businesses will determine whether this growth is a tactical combination or a strategic offensive.
Viewing this forecast as a chess game, Q3 profit signals the transition from opening to midgame. The shipment of fourth-generation high-bandwidth memory is the pawn on the path; whether it can advance all the way to promotion depends on customer certification, yield rates, and expansion pace; memory pricing is the central control—each concession in price reduces the tension along the entire pawn chain; business profitability is the coordination of pieces—you can't just watch one rook rampage while the flank's knights and rooks fall out of sync. The truly profitable player is not the one who commits all the rooks at the sight of a check but the one who calculates the opponent's responses before moving: cycle inflection points, peer expansion, price wars, demand falsification— which moves are forced and which are bait sacrifices.
$xIWM's linkage is more like a flank restraint. The initial news-driven sentiment boost does not mean the main line has already promoted; if the shipment and pricing of fourth-generation high-bandwidth memory cannot be fulfilled, the chase on the board is a sacrifice offered by the opponent, and taking it would expose the king's wing. The position's pawn structure should keep semi-open lines; don't turn the pawn formation into stacked or isolated pawns just because of a year-on-year surge; the midgame's biggest fear is having a material advantage but losing initiative to the opponent's blitz. The record missteps of peer competitors are just flank references, not the main line; the decisive move in the memory chess game still depends on whether Samsung Electronics can convert generational technology into pricing power.
The key move in this game is not the fireworks of year-on-year profit but whether the fourth-generation high-bandwidth memory can promote the pawn on the path; $xIWM is only a flank restraint, while the main line remains Samsung Electronics' ability to convert material advantage into an endgame winning position. #samsungq3profitoutlookDAMN 🤯
1,000,000,000,000 R$ evaporated from the Brazilian stock market
today.
And then, they say cryptos are volatile.
#OctFOMCDecisionThisWeek Netflix hit a new one-year low today, with trading volume only 60% of the average.
Closed at 63.21, down 4%, intraday low 63.16. It has dropped 52.8% from last June's peak of 133.91.
I'm not buying.
The earnings report after the close on the 20th was actually not bad: revenue of 12.87 billion, up 12%, EPS 0.87, beating expectations by 5 cents.
The next day it fell 5.3%, with 101 million shares traded, 2.4 times the average volume. Q4 guidance was only +12%, basically saying growth will stay flat.
Today’s new low is what concerns me. Volume was 26.8 million shares, average volume on the 20th was 42.4 million, 0.63 times.
A new low on high volume means there are still people arguing. A new low on low volume is a different story.
The disagreement is gone.
Frankly, the market isn’t panicking about how much it earns this quarter.
Three firms have downgraded in three weeks, all citing the same reason: watch time. HSBC 96→76, Wells Fargo 57, Huber downgraded twice.
It can still raise prices, but watch time is being taken by YouTube, capping the ceiling.
So I guess the answer isn’t in the earnings report, but in "how many people will still open it three years from now."
The line to admit a mistake: standing back above 68.85 with daily volume returning to 40 million shares. Breaking below 63.16 on high volume is the second phase.
Earnings in January next year will be the test.
Do you believe it can win back watch time, or do you believe the gate has already been shut?
$NFLX $GOOGL $QQQ
#NetflixNewLow #VoiceOfTrading: Your experience deserves to be heard#特斯拉Q3汽车毛利率回升，自由现金流转正
If trading at 395 = counter-trend * counter today's catalyst + stop loss close by, if shorting, wait for 405-410 stagnation or break below 385, these two structural signals, and be aware that the Optimus video and SpaceX merger could cause a sudden upheaval at any time.
Reasons:
1. FOMC Thursday 02:00: Hawkish tone will drag down the entire growth stock/AI narrative sector
2. Q3 deliveries down 2% YoY, revenue slightly down — fundamentals really don't support this price, but tonight's market is priced by liquidity and narrative, valuation realization could be months away.Bitcoin｜Short-term Strategy
The market surged to 80849 but faced resistance and pulled back, forming a long upper shadow on the candlestick. Short-term bullish momentum is weakening, moving averages are turning downward, indicating a short-term bearish bias.
Aggressive traders can consider shorting around the 80400-80600 resistance zone.
Stop loss: Above 80900 (if it breaks the previous high, immediately admit the mistake)
First target: 79600
Second target: Near the 79450 low point
The market is undergoing a pullback correction after the surge, with limited rebound strength. Avoid blindly chasing longs. The aggressive approach is only suitable for small positions aiming for favorable risk-reward; enter at resistance levels, and if the price doesn't reach the zone, wait and observe without preemptive positioning.
If the price stabilizes above 80850 again, abandon this short strategy immediately, as the market rhythm may change at any time.《别把日历当拐杖》
1950到2022年，中期选举后一年标普500多数上涨，这个统计很诱人，但样本有限，宏观背景也无法复制。选举结束不是发令枪，市场往往早已提前交易预期。即便最终收涨，中途也可能先跌一段，路径未必好熬。
若美股继续走强，加密资产可能跟随，但相关不等于同幅。情绪和杠杆会放大波动，涨时更猛，回撤也更凶。5.78万是不是历史大底，眼下无法证实；8万嫌贵，16万猜顶，4万又并非不可能，这样的赔率并不舒服。
所以我不猜底，也不追高。宁可分批、等确认、留现金，边走边看。市场机会很多，急不得。Round 2: Volatility vs. Efficiency, Who Takes the Hit Better
Volatility is very close on both sides ($BTC 30.7% vs. $ETH 31.6%), but the gap widens after risk adjustment: Sharpe ratio $BTC -8.21, $ETH -11.36. For the same unit of volatility, the big brother loses less, showing much higher efficiency per unit of risk. Average fees are $BTC +0.0055%, $ETH +0.0046%. Long positions on the exchange are paying taxes, but the big brother’s larger volume spreads the tax base, making the pain relatively lighter. This round, the big brother scores again; the second brother starts 0:2 behind with no timeouts allowed.
Round 3: Where the Smart Money Moves
Money is the ultimate judge. Contract holdings over six days: $BTC net outflow of 90.3 million USD, $ETH net outflow of 138 million USD—the big brother’s heavy single-day loss of 431 million on 10/23 looks severe, but a 124 million inflow on 10/25 stemmed the bleeding; the second brother quietly continues to bleed, accelerating outflow of 171 million on 10/25, a constant drip that hurts vitality the most. The spot ETF side is even more painful: Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 301 million USD last week (holding up early in the week, then reversing on Thursday and Friday), while $ETH ETF saw a direct net outflow of 221 million USD. The smart money’s position is already signed off by the ledger.Brothers, we've found another pretty savvy whale account 👀 It has short positions simultaneously on BTC, ETH, and SOL. Although the account is currently showing profits, the funding fees are gradually being replenished.
Breaking down the positions 🧵:
$BTC short | 5x full position
2640 BTC, nominal about 210 million U, opened at 76331, currently floating loss over 10 million U; funding fees collected 3.09 million U, liquidation price at 142688, with a thick buffer 🚀
$ETH short | 5x full position
106,400 ETH, nominal about 250 million U, opened near 2322, slight floating loss; funding fees received 4.23 million U, rhythm is quite steady 💧
$SOL short | 7x full position
719,900 SOL, nominal over 73 million U, opened at 94.3, floating loss 5.12 million U; funding fees income 3.8 million U, high leverage but liquidation line has room ⚡
This strategy doesn't seem like a bet on an "imminent big crash," but more like treating the short positions as a long-term rent-collecting tool: using a high liquidation price to withstand volatility, slowly grinding back costs through funding fees 🧘♂️ Next, it depends on whether the market or the funding rates have more patience.$HYPE bargain! Just noticed at noon, Coinbase dipped to 72 while the market price was 75, and my orders at 74 and 73 were filled—I only realized this at noon.
1. The peak has pulled back nearly 25%. At the 75 price, I’m actually quite satisfied. A 25-30% pullback in a strong coin is a great entry zone. Although there’s no sign of a bottom yet, strong coins in a bull market rarely give you many chances to build positions. I placed laddered orders lower in advance. I estimate I’ll build my core position during this pullback, and if it drops to the 60s, I’ll add more.
2. The crypto circle’s Fat Donglai, you deserve to have it! Holding the coin ≈ holding the company. Holding the coin is roughly equivalent to holding the company. The equity rights of Coin Dong are stronger than many stock shareholders, beating almost 100% of stocks. The extreme profit-sharing model—I really love it!
3. The global perpetual contract market trades $9.3 trillion annually, Hyperliquid only accounts for about 3%, so there’s huge growth potential. Plus, it mainly serves the unregulated market, which is enormous.
4. Circulating market cap: $HYPE 19 billion, $CRCL 17.6 billion, but profitability is not inferior to CRCL. With a circulating market cap under 20 billion, you can confidently build positions. If you can’t hold, you can exit principal at 40 billion; if you can hold, then pour in until the top of this bull market.
The October position building is progressing another step, with 5 trading days left. October really is discount month—I hope I can buy more HYPE #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
$BTC $ZEC main line in one sentence: The consensus is no rate hike in October, but the market's game point is whether Powell will continue to emphasize "high interest rates maintained longer, keeping the option of a December rate hike." Funds are cautious before the decision, mainly oscillating and washing out; only after the decision will the direction be chosen.
1. Core fundamental logic
Oil prices remain high, and inflation stickiness expectations persist, which is the common root suppressing gold and BTC in this round.
Geopolitical conflicts should be a safe-haven logic favorable to gold, but now it has become: conflict → oil price rise → inflation risk increase → Fed dares not turn dovish, safe-haven logic fails, and the real commander is the actual yield of U.S. Treasuries.
The two are currently highly correlated: yield rises, double sell-off; yield falls, only then is there repair rebound.
2. Key positions
✅Gold
Short-term support: 3900–3940; if broken below this range, look near 3840 below
Short-term resistance: 4100, strong resistance 4250–4300
To hit the 4600 target, inflation data needs to weaken significantly and rate cut expectations return, which is a low probability event next week.
✅BTC
Core defense: 80,000 level
Holding 80,000 belongs to a wide oscillation pattern of bull market correction; effectively breaking below and failing to recover weakens the trend, next support at 76,000.
Short-term resistance: 82,000–83,000, only a stable break can lead to a decent rebound; strong resistance above at 87,000.
Brothers, how will it go next week? Share your views in the comments.At 80800, how many people already felt 81000 was secure? Now it's 79868, ETH 2311, SOL 101.06. When prices rise, a few bullish candles make people reluctant to look back; when they fall, it feels quite straightforward, not even bothering to hold 80,000. Damn, those who just chased long positions are probably starting to flip through news looking for good news again.
I now prefer to wait for BTC to bounce before shorting. But 79800 is really a tough spot to act on; it dropped nearly a thousand points before chasing, so I'm hesitant. 80180 is the 15-minute 20 moving average, and nearby 80200–80250 is crowded with short-term moving averages. I want to see if it can climb back after that. If it pulls straight up again, shorts definitely won’t feel comfortable, so I just want to try a little and exit above 80400—no need to hold on just to prove the direction was right.
Below, 79600 isn’t far; if it empties out there, I’ll start to hesitate about whether to close. Of course, 79300 is tempting, but it was also pulled up there during the day, so it might not give in so easily. Tonight there have already been two rounds of drop-then-pull, pull-then-smash; holding for too long really makes profitable trades a mental burden.
I’m not touching ETH for now; it just touched 2344 and turned down, couldn’t even reclaim 2322, so 2350 is still far off. SOL ran fast earlier, but now it’s lost the 101.57 moving average. The Akash team chose Solana as the migration target, but it still needs governance and audits; news can’t backstop this short-term move. Let’s wait for BTC to give some rebound first. Chasing shorts now, I’m afraid I’ll sell right before it’s about to surge up.In the early morning, BTC is still hovering around 80500, but Wall Street institutions' bottom line has already been breached
Just finished reviewing the latest institutional data: BTC has fallen below the average holding cost line of the US spot ETF (around $82300), and institutions are generally at a floating loss. Not only has BTC seen net withdrawals exceeding 900 million for two consecutive weeks, but Ethereum ETFs have also nearly hit the $1 billion mark in outflows for the month. Retail investors are still betting on a rebound, but large funds are accelerating their exit
$BTC: Fell below the 82300 cost line, rebounds repeatedly encounter resistance
Previous reference price was around 84500. After falling below the institutional cost line, rebound momentum has clearly weakened. Outflows have exceeded 900 million for two consecutive weeks, 81000 has not been breached for a long time, and the chips locked above are heavy. Watching 80000 on the downside.
$ETH: Monthly outflows near 1 billion, broke the critical 2400 level
Previous reference price was 2500. This month, Ethereum ETFs have cumulatively outflowed over 955 million, with BlackRock withdrawing nearly 300 million in a single week. The bleeding is a record for the year, and the rebound completely lacks buying confirmation. Whether 2300 can hold is more important than how high it can spike
$SOL: Continuous capital outflow, weak rebound at high levels
Previous reference price was around 108. Capital willingness to follow is very low, with about 26 million outflow in a single week. Resistance near 105 is heavy, lacking incremental funds, rapid rises are prone to pullbacks
Summary: Institutions have fully shifted to defense, BTC has fallen below the cost line, and ETH and SOL have even less confidence. Both price and capital are moving downward
With the Fed's rate decision approaching this week, the real direction may not have emerged yet
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ $ETH Smart Money Position New Observation: Intensified Battle of Long and Short Cost Lines 🧐
ETH current price 2322, slightly down 0.61% intraday, funding rate 0.0046%. Total smart money positions 1.74B USDT, with 2361 traders, nominal long-short ratio 23.70%.
On the long side 😣
885 longs currently hold 333.53M USDT, average entry price 2874.44, unrealized floating loss 79.2097M USDT, profit ratio only 33.33%. Most longs have costs significantly above the current price, loss pressure continues to accumulate.
On the short side 🤏
1476 shorts hold 1.40B USDT, average entry price 2306.97, unrealized floating loss 9.5897M USDT, profit ratio 61.58%. Shorts have a larger volume, current price slightly above their average price, still a small floating loss but the distance to break even is not far.
Market observation 👀
Current price 2322 is exactly stuck in the middle of the long-short cost range: long costs above are high, short costs below are low, the market is tugged back and forth, a clear double kill pattern of longs and shorts. Short-term focus on the battle changes near the cost lines.
Market observation for reference only, does not constitute any investment advice. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ Just after midnight, shortly after the US stock market opened on Monday, BTC was still hovering around 80500, but funds had already turned negative consecutively.
Just finished reviewing the latest ETF data: after BTC saw a single-day outflow of 636 million on the 22nd, about 138 million flowed out again on the 23rd. The first half of the week still saw significant inflows, but by the end of the week it turned negative. Funds continue to withdraw, and the price has fallen back to around 80500.
$BTC: 81000 hit resistance and funds turned negative simultaneously
Previously referenced around 84500. Large inflows in the first half of the week, turning negative continuously from the 22nd. Fund strength clearly weakened, 81000 could not hold, short-term profit-taking may continue. Watch 80000 below.
$ETH: Lost the 2400 mark, rebound lacks fund support
Previously referenced at 2500. Total outflow exceeded 220 million for the week, now down to around 2350. The amount is significant, indicating the rebound has not yet gained sustained confirmation. Whether 2300 can hold is more important than how high it spikes.
$SOL: Approaching the 100 mark, just had inflows but immediately turned negative again
Previously referenced around 108. After continuous outflows ended, there was a small inflow, but it turned negative again by the end of the week. Heavy resistance near 105, lack of incremental buyers, rapid rises are prone to pullbacks.
Summary: Funds continue to flow out, BTC leads the withdrawal, ETH and SOL have even less confidence. Both price and funds are moving downward.
US stocks are battling at the start of the week, with the interest rate decision approaching this week, the real direction may not have emerged yet.
#SpaceX融资400亿美元，马斯克警告AI云断贷 Main focus $ETH | Strategy Short
It's $ETH's turn to take the spotlight, and the answer is nothing new: still short. On 10/24, a long bearish candle broke through $2,281, and on 10/25, closing at $2,328, another bearish candle continued, marking the second consecutive day of downward pressure—the candlestick's gap speaks for itself, stubbornness is useless. The plan is nailed down: on a rebound to $2,358-2,389 (the resistance zone where MA3 overlaps MA5), initiate short positions in batches, stop loss at $2,435, first target $2,281, if broken then watch $2,236, leverage 3-4x, starting with a risk-reward ratio of 1.5:1. Bulls eager to bottom-fish should calm down for three seconds: contract funds have been flowing out for four consecutive days, and even the spot ETF side saw a net outflow of $221 million last week. Catching the bottom here means catching a hot potato, not gold.
As for the big brother, summed up in one sentence:
$BTC closed at $80,114 (10/25), with a 7-day range of $79,178-$84,875, repeatedly testing the threshold after breaking below 80k. In terms of resilience, big brother is indeed tougher than little brother (will discuss this comparison in detail tomorrow). The directional bias is also straightforward: big brother also lacks a bullish structure, rebounds are still opportunities to short, but its support zone is closer and the edge is a bit duller than $ETH. As for bulls still standing firm at the $2,527 peak—I’m thinking of you from the air fryer, hold on a bit longer.ETF Weekly Settlement
💰 BTC ETF had a net inflow of $301 million last week! A rollercoaster week, ending two weeks of outflows
📈 Farside: Last week BTC spot ETF net inflow was about $301 million, ending two weeks of net outflows; from Monday to Wednesday, inflows were about $1.08 billion, while Thursday and Friday saw outflows of about $774 million (Cointelegraph).
📉 The previous two weeks had outflows of about $228 million and $680 million respectively; October cumulative is still a net outflow of about $314 million.
🔷 ETH spot ETF had a net outflow of about $221 million last week, marking the 4th consecutive week of net outflows.
🧮 The outflows on Thursday and Friday wiped out about 72% of the inflows from earlier in the week (my own calculation).
A positive weekly figure does not mean buying has stabilized; I am not sure and might be mistaken.
📍 What I am watching:
• Whether ETFs continue to have net inflows this week
• Whether October cumulative can turn positive
Do you think ETFs will continue net inflows this week or reverse again?
$BTC $ETH #BTCETHETFOutflows #OctFOMCDecisionThisWeek $BTC $ETH $ZEC This weekend, retail investors and whales moved in opposite directions. The speed at which retail investors transferred coins to exchanges hit a six-month high. Meanwhile, whales were pulling back.
In the past 30 days, retail investors' deposits of $BTC to Binance rose from about $5.5 billion to about $10.75 billion. Whales' deposits dropped from about $5.9 billion to about $3.8 billion, a decrease of about 36%. Now retail investors' deposits are about 2.8 times those of whales. Depositing does not equal selling; it just means moving coins to a place where they can be sold. This looks more like retail investors seeking an exit during the rebound, not whales dumping. This is just speculation, not confirmed.
Regarding $BTC ETFs, the inflows and outflows were alternating. From Monday to Wednesday, net inflows were about $1.08 billion. $BTC touched a weekly high of about $84,777. On Thursday and Friday, net outflows were about $774 million. For the week, net inflows were about $301 million, breaking a two-week streak of outflows. But overall in October, net outflows were about $314 million. Research also shows ETF investors are not bottom-fishers. In 7 out of 8 major drops, there were net outflows.
At 00:26, $BTC was about $80,228. The Fed decision on Wednesday is the key point; the probability of no change is high, and the market is focused on a rate hike in December. A recovery above about $82,500 would restore buyer confidence. Institutional cost is around $81,500 nearby. So I’m not rushing to define this week’s trend. Retail investors are active, institutions are waiting, so I’ll wait along with them.#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ Don't just focus on the candlestick chart, the "position swap door" of GDOG has opened 🚪
Grayscale has enabled physical subscriptions for products like the Dogecoin Trust ETF (GDOG). This news isn't explosive but is very important 🔍. Previously, institutions wanting to acquire shares often had to first sell DOGE for fiat, then subscribe, which involved high friction and tax costs; now qualified institutions can directly exchange spot DOGE for trust shares, shortening the path and making it smoother for compliant funds to enter.
The key is not "an additional subscription method," but that the flow of chips has changed 📦. Institutions no longer need to dump on the secondary market to get cash but gradually move on-chain spot DOGE into the trust's cold wallet. The freely tradable $DOGE in circulation is being "stockpiled" bit by bit, with selling pressure absorbed upfront, potentially amplifying the price elasticity of marginal buying later.
Retail investors panic over a few cents of fluctuation, while institutions are using institutional channels to settle chips 🧊. This is not a trading call; the market structure is quietly shifting gears. Don't get shaken out by short-term noise, nor blindly chase highs; understanding the capital flow channels is more important than guessing a single candlestick. Going forward, volatility may be more about rhythm 🎢. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #Middle East crude oil transportation resumes, why do oil prices remain high? The shipping lanes have only reopened, but the root causes of regional conflicts remain unresolved. The Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea still face risks of renewed disturbances, so the market continues to factor in geopolitical risk premiums and is reluctant to easily bet against oil prices. ✅ Global crude oil inventories remain low Large prior consumption of strategic reserves and commercial stocks has left little buffer space. Any short-term supply disruption can easily push prices up, and low inventories provide strong support for oil prices. ✅ High shipping and insurance costs After the conflict, tanker insurance and shipping freight rates have not significantly declined, raising transportation costs that are passed on to crude spot prices. ✅ OPEC+ production cuts underpin prices + tight refined product supply OPEC+ maintains production cuts to control supply; meanwhile, global diesel and other refined product supplies are tight, and refinery shortages inversely support crude demand, keeping oil prices elevated. ✅ "Navigable ≠ full production recovery" Some oil and gas facilities are damaged, capacity restoration is slow, and actual stable output has not returned to pre-conflict levels, so supply has not fully reopened. 📌Summary: The reopening of transport routes only alleviates the most extreme supply cut crisis, but multiple factors including geopolitical risks, low inventories, high shipping costs, and production cut constraints combine to keep oil prices high. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ October 28 is just around the corner, and SK Hynix's Q3 earnings report is definitely the highlight of this week's semiconductor circle. The current market sentiment is basically a "clear bet" on bullishness, so let's analyze the logic.
The core is all about HBM4. With AI server demand booming, everyone is counting on HBM4 mass production to boost unit prices and profits. A community member put it bluntly: as long as AI inference demand can push HBM4 shipments up, it can completely offset the weakness in traditional memory business.
How crazy is the funding from the data? Related tokens ($SKHYNIX, $SKHY)
But rational analysis means watching the risk points: first, whether production capacity can keep up; second, yield issues—don’t ship a lot but have gross margin dragged down. As long as this wave of HBM4 volume and price rise stabilizes, hitting a historic high is not a dream; if the performance slightly misses expectations, the previously soaring sentiment will likely teach you a lesson in no time.Generally, this kind of giant IPO usually first involves thematic hype before the bloodletting. Based on $SPCX's experience, the decline will start at the latest one week before the IPO.
From SpaceX's S-1 filing (May 20) to pricing (June 11), the early period was thematic speculation, and the last week was the squeeze.
Mapping this to Anthropic: before November 9 is the thematic period, from November 10 to pricing (the week before Thanksgiving) is the bloodletting period, with the peak 3 to 5 trading days before pricing. The midterm elections from November 3 to the roadshow on November 10 only have 4 trading days and are sandwiched by the big non-farm payroll data on November 6. Between this week and the midterm elections, it is more likely to be a pricing anchor rather than bloodletting.
At the same time, Anthropic's S-1 is possibly positive for this week's Microsoft/Google/Amazon earnings reports. The logic is that Anthropic's expenses are evidence of the necessity of capital expenditures by cloud providers. The primary funds raised from the IPO will ultimately flow back into the revenues of these three companies and chip manufacturers, so this bloodletting is a drain on the overall market but a transfusion for cloud providers. However, this returns to the paradoxical "left foot stepping on right foot" spiral ascent ladder cloud mode, raising the question of whether the market can still (pretend to) accept it.
Before SPCX's opening week, the crypto market once lost 180 billion in market cap. Anthropic might have a similar effect this time, meaning for short-term swing traders, if there is a rebound in early November, they should exit quickly to avoid risk and re-enter after the market stabilizes.The market looks a bit interesting 😅 Everyone was holding back waiting for a lower price during the dip, but as soon as it bounced back, BTC and ETH futures saw a net buy of 430 million in 24 hours, and spot also saw net inflows. Those without positions think the drop isn't enough, while shorts think the rebound is too much. I want to see if this wave of buying can push through 81,000.
I'm more inclined to go long. The 430 million might not all be new money, but the shift to spot buying makes me willing to wait. Planning to enter BTC around 80,600, the 15-minute 20 moving average is at 80,500, so don't let the pullback break it directly; stop loss if 80,380 is lost, reduce at 81,000 first, and hold the rest aiming for 81,400. The worst is sideways grinding, just closed a position and it rallies, chasing feels uncomfortable 😮💨
ETH is the priority. Buy if it stops falling between 2,340–2,345, admit a mistake at 2,328, take profit first at 2,370, and try for 2,385 with the remaining. The previous dip didn't break the low, 2,350 has been reclaimed, so no desire to short for now. Don't let it just break below the 20 moving average at 2,339 right after entry; if the pullback turns into a downtrend, it will be painful 😣
SOL is later, only looking at 101.3, exit at 100.7, reduce above 102.5. Not opening all three at once, ETH first. I guess the rebound isn't over, but chasing directly is uncomfortable, and placing orders risks missing out. For now, no action, watching the selling pressure at 2,370 📈📉Brothers, something's off in the active group chat, everyone is shouting to go long, saying a surge is about to happen!
The shorts are about to get bloodied. Is shorting really that dangerous right now?
Look at the market, $BTC is around 80181 now, although the group is shouting long, shorts still make up 52%.
My position—BTC short, entry price 83436.2, current price 80182.9, holding steady with +11.69% profit, not worried at all.
Why don’t I run when everyone’s shouting long? Because in this market, sentiment often goes the opposite way. The more retail rushes into longs, the less likely the big players will pump the price to save you. They’d rather use the long positions as fuel to smash the price down, isn’t that better?
Look at the candlesticks, after a big bearish candle slammed down, the rebound is weak as hell, moving averages are pressing down hard, no sign of reversal at all.
Those shouting long are gambling with their lives, we’re just picking up money by following the trend and shorting. Of course, if there’s a sudden pump, I’ll admit it. But with the current market, shorts still hold the fishing spot firmly.
Brothers, the busier the group chat gets, the calmer you need to be. Do you think this move is a strong pillar, or a bull trap set by the big players preparing to smash it again?
$ETH $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议