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A building whose foundation piles haven't even been completed yet has already fully booked entire floors for 2028. What Seattle is presenting is not a performance forecast but a construction progress schedule marked with concrete grades.
Let's start with the foundation. Computing capacity for 2026 is sold out, 2027 is basically fully booked, and more than half of 2028 is locked in—there's only one explanation in real estate development: this is not a demand forecast, it's a presale of capacity. Pre-selling units three years ahead means the blueprints have been worn out from constant reference. Anyone who has built supertall buildings knows that the presale rate never equals the delivery rate; it only determines whether you can secure the next development loan.
The real bearing point lies in the core tube. Computing power is the foundation and vertical transportation, while AI inference demand is the floor load stacked layer by layer above. The current problem is that the climbing formwork speed of the core tube can't keep up with the floor slab pouring speed. Sold out in 2026 means the existing load-bearing walls have reached the design load limit and new structures must be erected immediately; and from rebar tying, formwork, pouring, curing to inspection, there is an uncompressible physical cycle. Capital expenditure is concrete—once poured, it solidifies in place and cannot be undone.
Thus, the free cash flow issue shifts from a financial item to a structural mechanics problem. Concrete curing periods prevent formwork removal. Every penny spent on expanding capacity is locked in the formwork and cannot be released. Those staring at the blueprints only calculate floor area ratio, not curing costs; they count the increasing number of floors, but no one asks—has the wind resistance level been rechecked?
What I really care about is prestressing. To extend the span to 2028, the steel strands have been tensioned to the design limit. Short-term stiffness has indeed increased, and the facade looks polished; but long-term creep and microcracks only gradually appear after the structure is topped out. If even a 2% settlement occurs on the demand side, the entire building will settle unevenly. The biggest fear for supertall buildings has never been wind, but the foundation moving first.
As for the linked asset, it is the curtain wall hanging on the main facade. Curtain walls always feel wind loads before the main structure; when the structure sways, the curtain wall reacts first. But the noise from the curtain wall never indicates whether the structure is good or bad, only that the wind has arrived.
The 2028 floors have already been sold, but the seismic fortification intensity on those blueprints still hasn't been signed off. #amazonq3awsoutlookThe "False Boom" of L1: Behind High TPS, Who Is Gaming Incentives to Fake Orders?
A common market misconception: as long as a public chain has high TPS, active transactions, and many ecosystem projects, its native token will definitely rise. But beneath the data facade, many high-frequency interactions are actually "witch attacks" and "token incentives" creating fake demand.
$NEAR
Cross-chain intended trading volume appears huge, but its monthly inflation issuance (about $13 million) is still more than 6 times the buyback scale. Moreover, the repurchased tokens enter "permanent capital instruments" without being burned, causing net supply to continuously expand. Many of the so-called high-frequency interactions are driven by ecosystem incentives, while real net retained income remains relatively small.
$ARB
TVL has long topped the charts, but the large amount of on-chain fee income flows entirely into the DAO treasury, and the token currently serves purely as a governance symbol. Once airdrops and ecosystem incentives stop, real retail interaction frequency often experiences a cliff-like drop, with massive unlocks hanging like a sword overhead.
$RAY
High-frequency trading on the Solana chain is not entirely fake orders; genuine Meme enthusiasm and liquidity demand bring abundant fees. Raydium uses 12% of daily fees to buy real assets on the secondary market (though retained in the treasury and not burned), at least providing substantial buy-side support.
Conclusion:
TPS without real external demand support is just server idling. When looking at public chains and trading hubs, don’t be fooled by surface data and interaction counts. 目前，比特币 $BTC 在79,400至80,500美元之间窄幅震荡，以太坊 $ETH 则在2,295至2,335美元之间谨慎波动。 表面上看，市场似乎进入了平静期，但数据背后，一场多空力量的较量正在展开：一部分交易者开始防范下跌风险，另一部分交易者仍然坚信反弹即将到来。 这就像一场尚未结束的国际象棋比赛，每一方都在等待对手犯错，而一次关键的突破或跌破，都可能改变整个市场的局势。 一、巨鲸正在行动，但市场并没有形成统一方向 数据显示，40个新钱包提取了9,458枚BTC，价值约7.71亿美元。 这一行为可能意味着资产积累，也可能只是钱包之间的转移。因此，仅凭这组数据，还不能确定这些比特币全部来自新的买入行为，更不能直接认定机构或巨鲸已经全面看涨。 与此同时，一位大型交易者正面临不小的压力，其多头仓位规模约为4亿美元，ETH仓位的清算价格为2,181美元。 昨夜，ETH最低跌至2,282美元，距离该清算价格还有101美元。这意味着，如果价格继续下跌，该仓位可能面临更大的风险，追加保证金或主动降低仓位的重要性也会随之上升。 另一个值得关注的数据是，大户多空比为0.77。按照该指标的常见解释FOMC, PCE, $11 billion options settlement
$BTC, $ETH tug-of-war repeats, three events this week will concentrate pricing on the short-term direction
October 29 FOMC decision and press conference
The Federal Reserve is very likely to maintain 3.75%—4.00% unchanged, with CME pricing the probability of no change at about 91%. The real trading variable is not "whether to hike or not," but the chairman's wording on the December path—the market has priced in nearly an 80% chance of a rate hike in December, and any hawkish confirmation will push up real rates and suppress risk assets. Wintermute warns that the current implied volatility is low, and the market may be underestimating the volatility risk around the decision
October 29 PCE + Q3 GDP
September PCE is the inflation indicator the Fed truly anchors on, released the day after the FOMC meeting. If core PCE continues the previous cooling trend of 3.0%, it is slightly favorable for BTC; if it remains sticky and exceeds expectations again, the "higher for longer" narrative will directly suppress rebound space
October 30 about $11 billion BTC options monthly settlement
Deribit's monthly options nominal expiration scale is about $10.97 billion, with call contracts about twice the number of puts. But nominal scale does not equal directional signal—the market makers' hedging adjustments before and after expiration often amplify short-term volatility, with the $83,000—$85,000 range as the short-term battleground
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $SUI The order book's recent surge looks fake.
Contract volume reached 530 million in an hour, but the spot order book only has 10.1 million.
It's all leveraged longs hyping themselves up; no one in spot is willing to take the other side.
Without spot support, this low-volume dead cat bounce is purely a bull trap.
Resistance above remains unmoved, and high-level leverage is ready to trigger a crash at any moment.
#SUI
$SUI
👇October 26, 2026 · Monday Fourth Quarter · Issue 110 Aspirin · Cycle Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective At 8 a.m. this morning, BTC's second weekly candle closed below 83,000. My judgment is clear: this breakout is a false breakout, and there will be one last drop in Q4. BTC's low point will appear around December 10, near 60,000, just before or after the Federal Reserve's rate decision; gold will bottom and rebound before BTC, while silver is the weakest. Below is the full script, timeline, and key levels. 01｜Why is the false breakout confirmed? 83,000 is the May high. One weekly candle closing below this can be considered a pullback; two consecutive ones confirm falsification. The current price is about 80,000, and the daily chart has also broken below the 50-day moving average (around 81,700). Historically, several false breakouts cleared quickly. In 2015 and 2020, it took only two to three weeks from the second weekly candle break to the bottom. So the upcoming move will not be a slow decline but a concentrated, rapid drop. Another signal: Nasdaq, S&P, Dow Jones, ETH, and altcoin total market cap have all retested the bull market support zone; BTC is the last one not yet tested. I don't think it will be an exception. 02｜Macro is pushing in the same direction The Federal Reserve will hold steady this week, with the market pricing in about 94%, so the real focus is the wording about December in the statement. If the September PCE is hotter than expected, the market will confirm: there will be another rate hike in December. The 10-year US Treasury yield is now about 4.99%; I believe it will return to 5.3% then; Brent crude oil originalSouth Korean media revealed today that the company plans to distribute a special dividend of about 160 trillion KRW, funded by proceeds from selling Kioxia shares, expected to be officially announced alongside the Q3 earnings report on Wednesday. The company responded that the plan is still under discussion and no final decision has been made. $SKHYNIX $BTC $ETH But the market has already started to get excited. Coupled with the postponement of Solidigm's IPO and the continued booming demand for AI storage, the expectations this round are indeed very strong. Here are some key data points: - Q3 operating profit is expected by the market to be about 77 trillion KRW, nearly 5 times year-on-year growth, likely setting a new historical high - The 160 trillion KRW special dividend is more than 15 times the regular annual dividend - Current P/E ratio is only about 3 times, and foreign ownership has dropped to the lowest level since the financial crisis - The stock price has halved from the June peak, valuation has indeed hit rock bottom So, Cathie Wood is clearly bullish with a target of 1050. The logic is straightforward: explosive performance, shareholder returns exceeding expectations, and ridiculously cheap valuation, a triple positive combination. However, caution is needed; the real test will be the earnings report on Wednesday. If the special dividend amount falls short of expectations, or if the HBM4 shipment guidance is conservative, short-term sentiment may be negatively affected. But in the medium to long term, the AI storage theme remains unchanged, and Hynix's position as the leader in HBM is unshaken. Tonight's live broadcast will focus on this topic; the storage sector has recently fallen sharply, and rebound momentum is accumulating. #OctoberFOMCRateDecisionToBeAnnouncedThisWeek #SKHynixQ3EarningsComingUpCanHBM4BoostProfitability?"A 2.34% buffer against the daily fluctuations of $PUMP — this is the most dangerous aspect of this position."
PUMP 50x leverage, 0.004162→0.004262, +120.13%. Conversely: if it falls back just 2.34%, that 120% gain disappears entirely.
What does 2.34% mean on PUMP? A normal wick, or even a large sell order on the order book. In other words, this position doesn’t require any negative news, trend reversal, or even intentional shorting — a purely technical pullback is enough to wipe it out.
50x leverage magnifies 2.4% into 120%, and likewise magnifies 2.34% into zero. It gives you the fastest profits, but also the shortest survival time.
The market itself is holding up: price is running high. But the key support below isn’t far away.
So I never decide to close based on "how much profit" I’ve made, only on how far it is from the cost line. 2.34% is too close.
The only move: push to break even, at worst lock in zero, and don’t increase exposure. $BTC $ETH #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 📊 $BTC current price $79,730, WAIT, I am not adding to my position. I hold long positions with an average price of $83,030.
The position volume rose 4.0% in 24 hours, price dropped 1.13% in 24 hours, indicating shorts are adding positions, short-term risk leans downward.
A) If it breaks below the ascending trendline at $79,608 (still pushing up), the next level is $79,378. Within 48 hours, $79,740–$79,980 saw $5.72 million liquidated, 69% of which were longs, with thin buy orders below. Holding above $80,768 invalidates this.
B) The $80,768 level has been tested 7 times on the upside, pulled back 6 times, and broken through once. Holding above it targets $81,009; breaking below $79,608 invalidates this.
If it rebounds near the cost price of $83,030, I will first reduce half of my long positions and move the stop loss to the cost price.
Do you think the $79,608 line can hold? #OKXTraderVoices SanDisk Earnings Test: 76% Betting on Beat, Beware of a Market Crash After Good News Is Fully Priced In!
SanDisk ($SNDK) will report after the U.S. market close on October 29. According to prediction markets, 76% of funds are betting its earnings will beat expectations.
On the surface, the logic is sound: AI data center demand is expanding, NAND flash prices are rising, and the company’s own revenue guidance is $10.3 to $10.8 billion. But I have to pour cold water on this — a 76% betting ratio means expectations are maxed out; this hand is almost an open card. At this point, the market isn’t really looking at how much was sold last quarter, but whether next quarter’s guidance can continue to blow out.
Haven’t we had enough bloody lessons from recent tech earnings seasons? Previously, Western Digital beat expectations and had good guidance, yet its stock price still fell. If SanDisk’s guidance even slightly hints at peak profit margins or a slowdown in NAND price increases, that 76% of funds will quickly turn into the main sellers, and a stampede could happen at any time.
Semiconductors are the global tech stock barometer; this earnings report will directly impact our broader market. If the report beats expectations and the market can withstand selling pressure and move up, tech stock sentiment will stabilize, and BTC can breathe easier. But if earnings explode yet the stock price is slammed, it means Wall Street’s valuation logic for AI hardware has flipped, and BTC will definitely be drained of liquidity with extremely heavy selling pressure above.
Don’t just focus on beating expectations; beware of the chain reaction of good news being fully priced in! $SNDK $BTC
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Before the Super Week, three capital statements
$ETH: The foundation-related wallet sold 2,785 coins within 1 hour at $2,304 each, exchanging for USDS; over 7,000 coins transferred out cumulatively in two weeks. On the same day, about 170,000 ETH left exchanges, staking volume rose above 43.7 million coins, accounting for over 35% of supply. ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of over $1 billion in October.
$BTC: Around $80,000, weekend low at 79,398. ETF weekly net inflow was $301 million, but October still had a net outflow of $314 million, with a combined loss of $773 million last Thursday and Friday. On-chain, 40 new wallets withdrew 9,458 BTC from market makers, about $770 million; whale holdings rose to 3.03 million coins, with the 30-day accumulation speed the fastest since February this year.
$SOL: Around $99.9, repeatedly contesting $100. On October 21, the Alpenglow upgrade went live, reducing finality from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds; spot ETFs had net outflows for 11 consecutive trading days, with about $60 million redeemed in October. RWA tokenized funds had a weekly inflow of $453.5 million, accounting for 73% of the top ten blockchains' total inflows.
On the macro side, September core PCE expected at 3.1%, Q3 GDP expected at 3.1%, 90% probability FOMC holds steady, 68.9% probability of rate hike in December. All three prices are stuck at critical levels, with chips changing holders, addresses, and narratives.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Snapshot: October 24-26, 2026. Metrics from different aggregators vary, so I indicate the period and source next to the figures. Uniswap ($UNI) is one of the oldest and most prominent decentralized trading protocols. It is built on an automated market maker (AMM): instead of an order book, users trade against liquidity pools. The main conflict of the project: the product is in demand, but the connection between this success and the UNI token remains indirect. The token is needed for governance, but not for regular trading $XLM
Weaker than XRP, why can't the payment sector have a unified valuation?
In this morning's spot snapshot, XLM's 24-hour price change was -2.78%, ranging from 0.16681 to 0.17248 USDT.
XRP fell 1.46% on the same basis, with XLM experiencing a larger pullback, indicating that similar use cases cannot eliminate differences in supply and liquidity. Industry enthusiasm does not guarantee that each generation of tokens will simultaneously gain demand.
If the relative gap continues to widen, the assumption of a catch-up rally should be lowered; if actual usage increases and the relative price stops falling, then the assessment of recovery should be raised again. #中东原油运输恢复，油价为何仍居高位？ Because there are still uncertainties #CerebrasQ3AIChipOutlook
Q2 BEAT: Core $210M vs $191M +103% YoY, GAAP $180M +70%. But stock -14% after — GAAP loss $450M vs $350M est, OpEx $503M vs $89M YoY (SBC $377M). Q1 also beat $193M vs $174M.
Why YES:
WSE-3 = 58x NVDA B200 wafer = fastest inference. Cloud +281% to $126M. OpenAI $20B 750MW deal + Altman "close partner". Core guide $880-890M FY (was $855M). Backlog $25.4B RPO, cash $8.6B. EPS loss est improved -$0.32→-$
Call: 75% REV BEAT but selloff risk — needs core >$220M + GM >40% The Federal Reserve will decide the day after tomorrow whether to raise interest rates.
But the inflation data they are going to look at this time,
one-third of it was not collected.
Last month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics was supposed to collect prices for a batch of goods and services. They were supposed to collect 100 items but only got 66.
More than 30% missing.
What about the missing part? They estimate it.
They use prices of similar goods,
use prices from nearby regions to fill in.
So that year-over-year 3.7% inflation figure,
some of it is estimated.
Is it accurate?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics itself doesn’t dare to guarantee,
only said:
There is no evidence of overestimation, nor evidence of underestimation.
But the Fed can’t wait, and won’t wait.
On the 28th, they will announce as scheduled.
The market is already betting: the probability of a rate hike in December is close to 80%.
Bitcoin is now at $80,185, right above 80,000.
Why is this line critical?
Two things happen to converge here:
The average cost of ETF buyers is 81,300.
The 50-day moving average is also here.
A bunch of people’s costs are all piled up at this level.
Last time CPI was released, Bitcoin dropped from 83,800 to below 82,000 within a few hours.
My attitude:
To put it simply:
If inflation is high, you know how to hedge.
If the numbers are inaccurate, you don’t even know where to hedge.
80,000, see you on the 28th. Expected Value Hunter | Today's Expected Value October 26, 2026 80,000, touched again. On Monday during the Asian session, BTC dipped to a low of 79,330, approaching the lowest level since mid-September. Then it bounced back again to 80,320, just like it has done every time in the past nine days. If you opened the market today and saw the 80,000 figure tested countless times, you probably wouldn't feel much anymore. It's not numbness, it's fatigue. Dip down, pull back, dip down, pull back. Every time it feels like a direction is about to be chosen, but every time it isn't. But today, one thing is different from the past few days: the two groups driving this market are moving in opposite directions. First, let's look at the data on Binance. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost released a flow report today, separating retail investors and whales. Over the past 30 days, the amount of BTC transferred by retail investors to Binance rose from $5.5 billion to $10.75 billion, nearly doubling and hitting about a six-month high. Transferring coins to exchanges is usually not a buy signal. Darkfost's judgment is straightforward: retail investors are treating this round of rebound as an "exit window," closing positions at prices they find more acceptable to relieve previously accumulated psychological pressure. Meanwhile, whale deposits to Binance dropped from $5.9 billion at the end of August to $3.8 billion, a decline of about 36%, continuing a nearly two-month downward trend. Darkfost's conclusion is: no signs yet ofFinally seeing hope again! The market turnaround might really be coming! 🌈
The current market is becoming increasingly clear: the linkage between crude oil prices, global stock markets, and cryptocurrencies is strengthening.
🛢️ Oil prices falling gives risk assets a chance to breathe.
On October 26, international oil prices retreated from recent highs, and the market is also watching whether US-Iran diplomatic talks can make progress. However, shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, oil prices are still high, and the subsequent trend depends on how the situation develops. Meanwhile, global stock markets have slightly rebounded, and market risk appetite has improved.
For the crypto market, if oil prices can continue to decline, easing inflationary pressure and reducing concerns about further interest rate hikes, then risk assets like BTC, ETH have a chance to perform better.
Of course, a drop in oil prices does not mean a bull market will start immediately; next, we need to watch capital flows, trading volume, and whether key price levels cooperate.
ꉂ(ˊᗜˋ*)
₿ $BTC Bitcoin
BTC has experienced a round of correction recently, and the market is currently searching for a new direction. The fall in oil prices does help ease macro pressure, but for Bitcoin to truly strengthen, continuous capital inflow and confirmation of price structure are still needed. £22 billion on-chain? Actually only £50 million
On October 26, UK asset management giant Aviva launched tokenized shares of a pound liquidity fund on XRPL.
The parent fund is about £22 billion, but the actual tokenized initial investment is only £50 million — a 44 times difference.
Aviva uses a "digital twin" structure: only share rights are recorded on-chain, while the underlying holdings, custody, risk control, and regulation all remain in the original system, with assets still at BNY.
It's like our factory didn't change equipment or processes, just added an electronic certificate channel to existing goods: production capacity and yield remain unchanged, what changes is whether the goods can be accepted by the new system.
1. The first step of tokenization is money market funds, not stocks or real estate. Shares are already cash equivalents, and after tokenization they can be settled and used as collateral.
2. "On-chain" is overused. What changes are the issuance, recording, and transfer steps, not moving the asset itself onto the chain.
For friends in finance, how do you judge if a tokenization project is "truly implemented" or just "announced"? What indicators do you look at?On October 26, the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) did something symbolic: it publicly encouraged community banks to consider applying to become payment stablecoin issuers and pointed to the licensing framework of the GENIUS Act. For an insured national bank, the path is to apply through a subsidiary rather than issuing directly from the bank itself. With less than three months remaining until the January 18, 2027 deadline of "no issuance without a license." But the dramatic scene is this: regulators are encouraging banks to enter the market, yet banks are worried about being hollowed out by stablecoins. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan previously warned that under certain regulatory scenarios, up to $6 trillion, about 30% to 35% of U.S. commercial bank deposits, could flow into stablecoins. The Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA) provided a more specific estimate: if payment stablecoins become widely adopted, the future loan volume of community banks could decrease by at least $850 billion. The contradictory focus is on "returns." The OCC's final rule retains the core ban on issuers directly paying interest but removes the draft clause that "presumed third-party reward arrangements illegal," replacing it with case-by-case judgments. The banking system's concern is that even if issuers do not directly pay interest, platform and third-party reward programs can still draw deposits away from community banks. The American Bankers Association has quickly criticized the rule. This is not a "positive development," but the beginning of a deposit battle. The OCC's encouraging stance essentially acknowledges that stablecoins have become the U.S."Trading volume 49.2 billion, market cap 2.68 trillion"
Today's overall market numbers are a bit strange.
Total market cap is 2.68 trillion USD, 24-hour spot trading volume is 49.27 billion USD. Calculating turnover rate: 1.84%. Bitcoin trading volume is 16.13 billion, accounting for one-third.
This ratio is relatively low. The normal spot turnover rate in the crypto market is between 3% and 5%, so 1.84% indicates almost no one was trading today.
What’s even stranger is the price reaction. With such low trading volume, the market cap still dropped just over 4%. Among the top 30, 4 rose and 25 fell; SUI fell 3.46%, XMR fell 3.2%, ADA fell 2.91%; only ENA rose 6.43%, the strongest in the market.
On one hand, extremely low trading volume; on the other, a significant drop — these two together have only one explanation: marginal funds are withdrawing, not circulating existing holdings.
The consequences of these two situations are completely different. Circulating holdings means some are selling and some are buying; prices fall but chips don’t disappear. Marginal withdrawal means both buy and sell orders thin out, so prices can be moved with very little money. Today's 4% drop may have used only one-third of the usual funds.
The most dangerous aspect of this structure can be seen in the options market on October 30. That day, 140,844 BTC expired, nominally about 10 billion USD, with the biggest pain point at 78,000. When market depth thins, market makers’ hedging positions are amplified because the same hedge volume causes greater price impact in a thin order book.
And these three days are fully packed: October 28 interest rate decision (market pricing for rate hike probability dropped from 27% to below 15%), October 29 Q3 GDP and PCE, October 30 options settlement.
In other words: the market now is like a spring compressed to the limit, not because of bullish or bearish sentiment, but because no one wants to bet before the events unfold. Low turnover means collective wait-and-see; waiting means reactions will be more concentrated and intense when events land.
Discussion: Does low turnover mean "no one wants to trade" or "no one dares to trade"?
I think it’s the latter, and this difference determines next week’s direction. The former is indifference, prices will slowly drift down; the latter is tension, prices will jump as soon as events happen. Today’s funding rate is still +0.0054%/8h, longs are still paying — someone is waiting, and paying to wait.
Poll: Among the three major events in three days, which do you think is most likely to trigger volatility — A. October 28 interest rate decision; B. October 29 PCE; C. October 30 settlement; D. None, continue grinding.
I choose B. The rate decision is basically priced in, settlement is technical, only PCE is truly unknown.
Not investment advice, risk on yourself. #MarketAnalysis $BTC#RocketLabQ3Neutron
Why YES on Rev:
13/19 beats (68%). Electron 17 contracts Q3, >20 launches yr. SpaceX Q3 +161% $14.6B lifted space. Space Systems mix.
Why NO on Neutron:
First launch slip 2026→2027 — tank redesign, carbon fiber defect. Stock -28% 1M, -33% 6M, $53 off $151 high. Iridium $5.9B deal
Valuation: $31B mcap, P/E N/A, beta 3.19, EPS -$0.37. Avg PT $122 = 130% upside. Cantor Buy.
Call: 75% REV BEAT, 50% EPS — needs >$265M + backlog >$2.5B + Neutron pad Q4 timeline to reclaim $65.#SpaceX业绩大增，与特斯拉合并能否推进？
Musk announced that SpaceX completed $40 billion off-balance-sheet debt financing to buy GPUs, but the pricing has not yet been agreed upon. More awkwardly, xAI's similar operation last year was deemed "invalid" by accountants, and about $13 billion of debt was ultimately brought back on the balance sheet.
AI revenue is indeed exploding: Q3 Super Intelligence segment revenue reached $7.56 billion, a year-over-year increase of 830%, profitable for the first time, already surpassing Starlink. But the faster the computing power expands, the more it relies on this off-balance-sheet structure to maintain its rating.
The problem is that the market is precisely watching whether this money can truly be "off the books." The revenue explosion and financing fragility are currently two sides of the same coin.Core Risk Warnings
1. A volatility compression to 6% has historically ended in explosive moves: a 9-day consolidation box, with the 30-day price spread shrinking from 13% to 6%. Once the direction is chosen, the magnitude could far exceed the $2,100 implied by the current ATR. Avoid heavy directional bets at the end of the compression.
2. 82,700 is the "invalid line" for the medium-term bearish pattern: until the daily close breaks above this area, the objective signal is bearish and range-bound, not a bull market trend. All short-term moving averages are above the price, which is a technical fact that cannot be ignored.
3. ETF "IBIT unipolar inflow" is fragile support: 566 million this week. If IBIT inflows slow or reverse, net inflows across the market will quickly turn negative. The recent 774 million outflow over the past two days has already demonstrated this fragility.
4. The FOMC (10/27–28) is the biggest variable within 48 hours: a pause in October is priced in, but the real risk lies in any hawkish hints from Waller regarding December. If December rate hike expectations strengthen, the lower boundary of the $79,200 box will face a severe test.
5. The "chaotic combination" of $117 oil prices + falling US Treasury yields: the market is pricing in an AI recession rather than oil-driven inflation. Bitcoin has no clear beneficiary path in this combination—oil price gains do not transmit, while weakness in tech stocks drags it down.
6. Divergence between taker sell volume at 0.67 and 67% net long accounts: positions are bullish but actions are selling. If price is resisted near $82,300, passive long covering may turn into selling pressure. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Order placing is exhausting! $247 rolled to $936 in 15 minutes, this bot really knows how to wait 😂
There is a bot specifically trading Bitcoin 15-minute up/down markets. Since last December, it has run about 169,700 markets and accumulated roughly $354,200 in purchases. It doesn't guess price direction; it places buy orders at every cent price point, waiting for people to panic sell recklessly.
Today there was an even crazier window. Someone smashed about $10,000 on a buy order, and the price instantly dropped from around 65 cents to 5 cents. The bot's buy orders were all filled, costing about $247, and settled in 15 minutes for about $936, nearly 3.78 times the cost. Out of 313 days, 213 were profitable, and in the last 30 days it quietly gained about $6,950.
Retail traders rush during those 15 minutes, but the bot waits for your slip-ups. The fastest in this game is often the one with programmed orders.
Newbies are advised to watch more and trade less; when buying coins, only buy $BTC $MSTR MicroStrategy has paused buying coins! Instead, it spent $205 million to repurchase preferred shares. Is the market panicking?
Brothers, MicroStrategy's recent moves are worth paying attention to. Logically, MicroStrategy should continue increasing its $BTC holdings, but this time the capital allocation has changed: it spent $205 million repurchasing its own STRC preferred shares, while only $22 million was spent buying BTC.
The money spent hasn't decreased, but the focus has shifted!
Don't rush to say BTC is too expensive to buy; the key might be the cost of capital. STRC preferred shares have an annual dividend of about 12%, and continuous financing means bearing significant dividend expenses. Repurchasing preferred shares may help control future capital costs and cash flow pressure.
This indicates that MicroStrategy's capital arrangement deserves a fresh look, but we can't conclude that Saylor has completely changed the strategy just because of buying less BTC for a week.
Looking at market performance, BTC has fallen below around $80,000, the FOMC meeting is approaching, risk-off sentiment is rising, and MSTR's stock price is also under pressure.
The real question is: if BTC continues to weaken and MicroStrategy slows its buying pace, can MSTR's valuation premium hold?
Next, focus on three signals: whether BTC can stabilize, whether MicroStrategy will continue buying coins, and the financing and repurchase arrangements of STRC.
Brothers, do you think this is MicroStrategy proactively adjusting its capital structure, or is market pressure starting to show? #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $ETH #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
$xMETA Here's a drama from last night. The earnings report came out, revenue blew past expectations, over 40 billion USD, profits steady like an old workhorse. But AI is a bottomless pit that burns money, so they immediately decided to raise 35 billion USD.
Investors calculated: more shares issued, dilution, pre-market sell-off, stock dropped over 4%. Almost losing their minds.
Then a divine reversal happened. Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom—three chip giants—stepped up and said they would put 5 billion USD into buying its stock. Pre-market, the drop of over 4% was pulled up to a 1.12% gain.
My takeaway: the money shortage is fake, but the ranking is real. Among this huge financing, the three hardware giants willing to pay 5 billion to buy in is basically telling you—on the AI chain, no one is helping for free. Its stock price is tied to the crypto nerve; when one side moves, the stocks and tokens on the other side also get unsettled. $xMETA #SoftBankQ2AIReturns
AI goldmine — OpenAI $2.15T gain Q2, $79.6B FV vs $34.6B cost = $45B unrealized. Nvidia exit 32.1M shares $5.83B Oct, Arm + telecom stable. Vision Fund + OpenAI $500B val (was $300B Mar). Final $10B tranche done Oct 1 → total $64.6B = 13% OpenAI.
Valuation: $15.4, $169B mcap, P/E 5.2x, 78% run Sep Q (+best since 2005), now -25% off high. ROE 26%, margin 62%. Debt ¥5T, EUR 405M note redeemed.
Call: 90% BEAT needs >¥3T profit on OpenAI markup + no impairment to hit ¥7,000.Bitcoin will either plunge or surge significantly
After the past two midterm elections, BTC experienced sharp declines:
▪️In the post-election phase of 2018, BTC's maximum drawdown reached -50%
▪️In the post-election phase of 2022, BTC's maximum drawdown reached -25%
The next midterm election is on November 3.
History does not simply repeat itself, but both post-election periods shared the commonality of deep corrections.
Do you think the market will replay this historical scenario after this election?
❗This is only a summary of public historical data and does not constitute any trading advice $ETH $ZEC $SOL Is $BTC Bitcoin saved? Oil prices have started to fall, is a rebound coming? Let's talk about the current trading opportunities.
1. Have you noticed that to trade crypto well, you have to be like a eunuch! Constantly pondering the emperor's will, guessing the next move of King Trump.
2. Over the weekend, US crude oil CL soared to 105, reaching a price Trump couldn't tolerate, so he immediately crashed the market, saying he wouldn't attack Iran today. Oil prices plummeted 5%, and both the crypto market and US stocks finally began to recover.
3. So what will Bitcoin do next? Actually, from Trump's actions above, we already have a conclusion. Trump doesn't ignore the market; if it falls too much, he will back down or soften his stance. So I believe the downside risk is relatively limited, and since there has already been a significant pullback recently, buying on dips can be considered. Those who have bottomed out can wait patiently.
4. I don't know if you've noticed, but recently there have been so many negative factors in the market—US-Iran, Saudi Arabia, Yemen—so many bad news, yet Bitcoin hasn't dropped much. It was around 82,000 before, now 80,000, only about a 2% drop, which is actually a relatively strong signal, at least compared to the US stock market.
5. So now the market is such that despite negative news, it doesn't fall much, or it falls and then rebounds. And what if there is good news later? Just think about it, something big will come! Besides the US-Iran conflict, there might also be positive inflation data. We just need to wait patiently now and pay attention to the strong support around 78,200. Buy when it reaches that level, if not, then forget it.Binance launched 4 TradeFi perpetual contracts all priced in USDT today, with liquidation handled on Binance RCH, and the launch times staggered by 5 minutes each.
EIDOUSDT at 17:00, EQTUSDT at 17:05, STMUSDT at 17:10, ABBVUSDT at 17:15. EIDO and EQT track US and European stock ETFs, STM is STMicroelectronics, ABBV is AbbVie; all four contracts are well-established traditional assets.
This pace is worth noting. Previously, launching a new product required the platform to warm up for several days, but now 4 are queued within 15 minutes, showing the variety pool is expanding faster than user education.
For contract traders, there are three practical impacts. First, liquidity is thinnest in the 15 minutes before opening, spreads and spike risks are high, so avoid rushing in immediately. Second, these assets don’t have the 7×24 sentiment of crypto markets; prices follow US and European trading hours, with possible no movement overnight and gaps at daytime open. Third, USDT pricing means no need to swap coins, but funding rates and margin rules must be reviewed carefully—don’t apply crypto parameters directly.
The platform bringing traditional finance into contracts is essentially competing for a bigger pool. The more varieties, the more stories to tell, but what really determines your profitability are the old questions: position size, leverage, and when not to enter.The biggest buyer didn't buy this week: Strategy spent $205 million elsewhere
The article at dawn said institutional buying couldn't keep up with mining, and by evening there was a ready-made footnote.
According to Monday's SEC filing, Strategy neither bought nor sold a single $BTC last week, nor did it touch the ATM issuance; it spent the entire $204.9 million on repurchasing its own preferred stock STRC, buying back 2.07 million shares in one week. This is the first time it paused after buying coins for four consecutive weeks — the amount spent on buying coins had shrunk from $140 million to below $30 million over the previous three weeks.
The accounting goes like this: since October, Strategy has spent about $664 million on STRC repurchases, only about $72.3 million on buying $BTC, acquiring 851 coins. Holdings remain at 848,517 coins, with an average price of $75,446, current price about $79,980 (Beijing time 22:13), still positive on paper.
Comparison group: in the same week, Strive made its largest coin purchase ever, over $510 million. One paused, one increased — there is significant internal disagreement among institutions about the 80,000 level.
There is a reason for the buyback: STRC once fell below $98 last Monday, under the $100 par value, only recovering above $99 on Friday. Whether to stabilize its own preferred stock first or continue to increase $BTC holdings, Saylor chose the former this week.$CORE The CORE market is still holding on hard, but the number of validator nodes has actually dropped to 16.
The network's security red line is 15; if it drops by one more, it will directly freeze and halt.
The most absurd part is that the official team leading the exit, first withdrawing validator nodes, then flooding the exchange with batches of treasury tokens.
Now mining with nodes can't even cover the data center electricity bills; who can be expected to work for free to keep the ledger?
If the chain really freezes one day, who will redeem the string of code in hand?
#CORE
$CORE
👇#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Robinhood will report after the market closes on October 27. Honestly, market expectations for this earnings report are quite high. After all, Q2 numbers were outstanding: revenue surged 32% to 1.31 billion, and net inflows hit a new high of 22 billion USD. But with expectations set so high, Q3 is somewhat "riding a tiger".
The analysis shows two main points of contention: first, trading activity. Q3 saw a choppy market in both US stocks and crypto, so has retail investors' "gambling nature" been suppressed? Whether trading volume and commission income can sustain the baseline is a big test. Second, the growth of new business. Relying solely on the old core business is no longer enough; it depends on whether new products like derivatives and retirement accounts can actually monetize.
My personal view is that $HOOD is currently going through a "breaking out of the circle" growing pain phase. The inflow volume shows the user base is solid, but future revenue can't just rely on luck (dependence on trading volume). If this earnings report can prove that new business contributes substantially, then the stock price will have a new story to tell. #AAOIQ3800GOutlook
Guide $255-290M / $0.11-0.26 EPS. Q2 BEAT: $191.9M vs $190.5M, EPS $0.06 vs $0.01 (+0.22 YoY). 5th record Qtr.
Why YES:
800G transceiver ramp, 1.6T orders, TX fab expansion. Datacenter AI optics = Nvidia rack boom. Rev 5Qs up. Gross margin improving.
Valuation: $102, $5.7B mcap, 52W $18.5-$233.7, -30% off high, RSI 30 oversold, below 50/200 SMA ($106/$132). P/E -87x, beta 3.85.
Call: 70% BEAT — needs >$280M + EPS >$0.20 + 1.6T guide to reclaim $135. Miss <$250M = $85.$HYPE has a real trading ecosystem as support, but the recent decline indicates that sentiment remains cautious. It cannot be assumed to have bottomed out just based on the pullback; continue to observe platform revenue and capital flow to see if the price can stabilize again at 78-80 A 9% pullback is called a "normal shakeout in a bull market," but is it really that easy on the derivatives side? Is this wave actually shaking out floating chips, or quietly building a squeeze trigger? Last night when I was watching the market, my first reaction wasn’t the price, but the two lines of funding rate and open interest: BTC pulled back about 9% from the high, and sentiment-wise everyone started waiting for a "lower low," but the perpetual side didn’t show that clean deleveraging feeling. A well-known trader said this is just a decent correction in a bull market and suggested continuing to dollar-cost average BTC in the coming weeks, the mid-term logic is intact. I agree with his point of "don’t be misled by short-term panic," but from a derivatives perspective, I care more about who is holding the positions and who is waiting for cheaper chips during this pullback. The on-site signals are roughly like this: - Price pulled back about 9%, which is a common correction range in a bull market, but the market is generally waiting for an "extreme low" to replay - The last spike-style liquidation was the result of multiple bad news exploding simultaneously, currently there is no equivalent density of negative news - Buyers in Q4 are still waiting to enter at lower levels, spot buying is hesitant - Perpetual open interest and funding rates have not been completely cleared, indicating leverage is still in the market - High beta targets like ETH and ZEC are falling along, risk appetite is short-term defensive My understanding is: what the market is actually trading now is "whether the pullback is deep enough," not whether the trend is broken. The mid-term logic still holds, the dollar-cost averaging approach itself is not wrong, but there is an easily overlooked point on the derivatives side—if leverage hasn’t been cleaned out, if the price probes lower again, it will trigger the【Crypto Circle Script】
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Hynix's earnings report hasn't even come out yet
So why is the market already popping champagne?
HBM4 hasn't really delivered much profit yet
But everyone is already calculating how much can be earned next quarter
The money hasn't even been pocketed 🧧
Why does it feel like it's already been earned?
If the market believes
Hynix can still make more money with HBM4 going forward
Then funds will buy in early
By the time the profits are actually realized
The stock price may have already gone through a rally
If everyone knows AI demand is strong
And everyone knows HBM is key
Then how much of these positives
Have not yet been priced into the market?
Today's supply shortage
Doesn't mean it will always be in shortage
So I think
When looking at Hynix's earnings report this time
We shouldn't just focus on how much it earned
But also whether it can continue to earn this much in the future
What do you think?
After Hynix's earnings report is released this time
Will it continue to surge
Or will it pull back after the good news is realized?
$BTC $ETH #LumentumQ1OpticalGrowth
Why YES:
AI optical boom — 200G EML lasers 2x QoQ record, pump +90% YoY, OCS backlog $400M+ (was $10M Q1). Undershipping demand 30%, at capacity thru CY27. Q4 guide $960M-$1.01B vs $908M est. CPO + optical scale-up replacing copper H2 26.
Valuation: $780, $69B mcap, +335% 1Y, +111% YTD. P/E 346x scary — debt 6.4x. But OM 25%→32%→30-31% guide.
Call: 85% BEAT — needs >$1.30B + EPS >$4.50 + OCS >$500M backlog to break $900. $1.20B miss = $650 flush.As soon as the US stock market opened, Bitcoin immediately gave the whole network a harsh lesson. The 80,000 round number was as fragile as paper, instantly smashed down to around 79,600. By now, has someone in the group already started shouting "golden pit" and preparing to charge? Brother, hold your horses! After seeing the data, you might not want to rush in anymore.
$BTC current price is 79,980, breaking the psychological barrier. Logically, it should cause panic, right? Not at all! The 4-hour long-short ratio is still high at 2.24. Retail investors think it's a discount sale and are still buying, with open interest not decreasing, indicating all positions are being firmly held.
Looking at $ETH now at 2,311, it’s right on the edge of a cliff. This data is even more absurd than Bitcoin’s; the 4-hour long-short ratio has soared to 2.69. This is true love—falling like this and still not giving up, desperately adding positions. The main players love this kind of stubbornness; they won’t lift you up unless they completely wipe out your leveraged positions.
Finally, $SOL is currently at 101.3, with the battle to defend the 100 mark underway. The 4-hour long-short ratio has reached 2.94, practically wearing out the short button. Below are dense bullish chips; once the 100 level breaks, a chain reaction stampede will begin.
My view: Seeing the US stock market open like this, retail investors are rushing in. As for me, I’ll continue to stay empty-handed, drink tea, and watch the show. Don’t ever think a drop must mean a rebound. In such a crowded bullish market, there’s often a heavy hammer waiting behind.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 With one sentence from Musk tonight, he crushed a string of "new cloud" companies: CoreWeave down 4%, Nebius down 4.7%, IREN also falling. His exact words were that these companies will face major consolidation and closures.
What’s intriguing is that the person saying this is himself pouring money wildly into building computing power. This isn’t bearish on AI; it’s about clearing risks along the entire chain—the weakest link has never been the giants holding hundreds of billions in cash, but the middlemen who borrow money to buy GPUs and then sublease them.
Wherever leverage is added, that layer cracks first. If this round really hits trouble, it will most likely start with these names, not Nvidia. Keep an eye on them. 5600 dropped to 4000, is the gold bull market dead?
Last week it fell 4%, breaking the round number support, and the whole internet was shouting "gold is finished." But after reviewing central bank holdings data, I found a chilling truth — all the sellers are leveraged traders, while those picking up chips remain silent.
First, the surface looks terrible: really terrible.
From the January high of 5580 down to 4000, 25% is gone. Last week recorded the worst weekly drop since June, daily moving averages are all bearish, with the 20-day MA at 4155 and 50-day MA at 4340, price lying below them. RSI dropped to 27-35, oversold, but no bullish divergence.
Everyone says "the gold bull market is over" and "de-dollarization is a scam."
Do you believe it?
First thing: the reason for the drop is not that gold is weak, but that interest rates are too high.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is still near 5%.
The opportunity cost of holding gold is ridiculously high — why hold a non-yielding metal when you can put money in government bonds earning 5% risk-free interest?
Add to that a hot September CPI at 3.7%, strong PPI, and high oil prices, the market is betting a 75-80% chance of a rate hike in December. The dollar is strong, and gold is being pressed down hard.
It's not that gold is worthless, it's that "the cost of holding gold" is too high.
When rates ease, gold will be the first to take off.
Second thing: while you are cutting losses, central banks are quietly buying.
Emerging market central banks — China, India, Turkey — have been steadily increasing holdings this year by over 1000 tons.
They bought above 4000, and now below 4000, have they fled? No.
ETF holdings have not increased significantly during the pullback, what does this mean?
Short-term speculative funds are exiting, long-term allocation funds are waiting.
Third thing: technically, gold has reached the "faith test zone," but not yet the bottom-fishing starting gun.
Strong support: 3980-4000 (round number + recent low cluster), break that and look at 3960-3940 (July lows), then 3900.
Resistance: 4040-4075 (previous support turned resistance), then 4100-4120, 4150-4200 is a dense moving average zone.
Pattern: inside a descending channel, after liquidity sweep below, a rebound, but until it stands above key moving averages, this is just a bear market rally, not a reversal.
Monday's rebound 0.3-0.6%, oversold repair, don't get excited.
Before the FOMC, any rebound could be a trap.
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself
Bears say:
Interest rates at 5%, holding cost too high
75-80% chance of December hike
Oil prices falling, inflation expectations cooling
All moving averages bearish, descending channel intact
Bulls say:
Central banks buying 1000 tons solidly
25% drop from 5600, correction deep enough
RSI oversold, technical rebound imminent
High debt + geopolitical uncertainty, mid-term logic intact
Short term I'm bearish, mid term I'm bullish.
But before the FOMC (October 28), anyone heavily positioned is foolish.
Trading strategy
Before FOMC (1-3 days):
Light positions or wait and see.
If itching to short: short on rebound 4040-4070, stop loss above 4100, targets 4000→3980→3960.
If itching to long: hold 3980-4000, wait for hammer/engulfing pattern then light long, stop loss below 3960, target 4040-4070.
Event trading (FOMC + PCE):
Dovish statement → rebound 4100-4150
Hawkish or PCE beats expectations → break 3960, look at 3900 or lower
Reduce positions or hedge before decision, don't bet your life on direction.
Mid to long term:
Build physical/ETF positions in batches within 3900-4000 range, don't go all in.
Stop loss? Mid-long term focus is on central bank gold buying and de-dollarization, not a single candlestick. But position size should not exceed 20% of total funds.
Gold now is like Bitcoin in March 2020 —
Pandemic crash, everyone said "safe haven assets failed," but it doubled in six months.
This time is the same:
You didn't lose to gold, you lost to the illusion that "everyone else is selling."
$BTC $ETH $XAU From a longer-term perspective, Bitcoin reached a historical high of approximately $126,000 in October 2025, after which it underwent a correction, with the current price down about 36% from the peak. Although there was a rebound in Q3, ETF fund flows were volatile, with significant net outflows during some periods. On-chain data shows that long-term holders remain relatively stable, but short-term costs and leveraged liquidations make the price highly sensitive to macroeconomic data. Declining trading volume and neutral sentiment indicate that the market is waiting for a clear catalyst rather than actively pricing in a new trend.
Entering November, the market is likely to continue with high volatility and consolidation rather than a one-sided strong trend. The primary variable is the Federal Reserve's subsequent path. If the statement after this week's meeting is hawkish or the dot plot strengthens the expectation of a rate hike in December, the US dollar and US Treasury yields may rise, further compressing the risk premium of crypto assets. Conversely, if data shows inflation easing or the chair's tone is more flexible, it could trigger a short-term rebound targeting the resistance zone of $82,000 to $85,000. Overall, however, financing costs remain a constraint, and Bitcoin, as a non-interest-bearing asset, is particularly sensitive to changes in real interest rates.#OkloQ3NuclearOutlook
Q2 MISS: -$0.28 vs -$0.16 est, Rev $1.21M vs $0.09M beat but loss wider. No profit till 2028 ($51M est).
Valuation pain:
$25.5, 52W $26.3-$152, -64% YTD, -81% 1Y. Citi $57.5→$33, Truist $51→$31, Piper cut too. Avg PT $75 = 170% upside but dilution — $1B ATM sold 18M shares. Inst 85%. Net -$105M, P/B $9.45.
Call: 20% EPS BEAT — earnings irrelevant. Needs licensing milestone + no new ATM + ARK buying to hold $25. Miss = $23. $14 bear case.Brothers, in the dynamic group everyone is shouting "bottom fishing, bottom fishing $BTC," I want to ask: at this point, do you dare to bottom fish? How many people have truly bottom fished?
Let's not look at anything else, just the current market trend:
From the K-line trend, BTC has completely broken down from the high level, all short-term moving averages are in a bearish alignment, with one big bearish candle after another pressing down hard. Every small rebound now can't even reach the previous high, it's a classic downward continuation pattern with no sign of stabilization or counterattack.
Looking at the order book depth, there are dense large sell orders around 79,640 above, the selling pressure is very heavy. Meanwhile, the buy orders below are sparse and can't absorb the dumped chips. Funds are flowing out, and the main force has no intention to support the price.
In such a one-sided downward trend, the bottom hasn't been confirmed at all; bottom fishing now is like catching a flying knife, no one knows if there's a basement under the floor.
So, do I dare to bottom fish? My answer is no, and I won't join that hype. Following the big trend to short is much safer than blindly guessing the bottom.
I'm holding this short position firmly, and I won't exit without a clear stabilization signal.
My short position entry price is 83436.2, now it has directly dropped to 79621.8, firmly holding +13.71% profit!
$ETH $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Many people wonder: $BTC hasn't dropped sharply, so why does every rebound feel so fragile, collapsing at the slightest touch?
The answer isn't in the candlestick charts but in the funding rates and liquidation data. The funding rate has clearly turned positive these past two days, meaning longs are continuously paying shorts, and the market is crowded with longs trying to catch the rebound. Looking at liquidations, the big losers have consistently been longs, not shorts, getting washed out round after round.
This isn't macro forces dumping the market; it's overcrowded longs stepping on each other. Every shout of "the bottom is here" only fuels the next dip. If you want to catch this rebound, first ask yourself: what makes you think you won't be among those getting washed out?The cost of going long on SOL is not just the transaction fee; the real cost consists of three parts: transaction fees, funding rates, and opportunity cost. The third is the easiest to overlook but accounts for the largest proportion.
Transaction fees are the most direct. The taker fee for perpetual contracts is about 0.05%, charged once when opening a position and once when closing it, totaling about 0.1% for a round trip. With $SOL currently around 101, opening and closing a position of 10 SOL costs about 1 USD in fees.
Funding rates are the cost during the holding period, settled every 8 hours. On the morning of October 26 at 8 AM, the rate was 0.00008764%, which annualizes to about 3.2%. Holding a long position means paying this every 8 hours; for a 10 SOL position, one period costs about 0.09 USD. Over 10 days (30 periods), this accumulates to 2.7 USD.
Opportunity cost is the most hidden expense. If during these 10 days BTC rises by 5% but SOL only rises or stays flat at 2%, the 3% difference is the opportunity cost. For 10 SOL at 101 USD each, that's 1010 USD total, so 3% equals 30.3 USD. This amount is not deducted from the account but is a real loss.
Adding these three together, holding a 10 SOL long position for 10 days costs 1 USD in fees, 2.7 USD in funding rates, and assuming a 3% opportunity cost, 30.3 USD, totaling 34 USD. The fees and funding rates combined are less than 4 USD, with opportunity cost accounting for 90%. Before going long on $SOL, think carefully about whether you can outperform the market; if not, you are paying hidden costs. #AWS computing power demand is booming, what are the highlights of Amazon's Q3 earnings?
"Amazon's computing power orders explode: Who profits behind the earnings report?"
The entire internet is focused on Amazon's Q3 earnings this week, with rumors everywhere that AWS computing power orders are booked through next year, and Wall Street has pushed revenue expectations extremely high.
But behind the impressive numbers lies a heavy burden of massive cash burn. Tens of billions of dollars in capital expenditures are being poured into grid expansion, liquid cooling upgrades, and long-term Nvidia contracts, with cash flow stretched to the limit by depreciation cycles.
The real question is whether the payments come from genuine business deployments by enterprises or from a tech giant's arms race to avoid falling behind. This earnings call will deliver the most direct answer. $BTC #ModernaQ3VaccineSales
Why YES:
mNEXSPIKE COVID + mFLUSIVA flu (1st mRNA flu FDA 50+) approved. Cancer vax Intismeran (MRK) Phase 3 hit. FY +10% rev guide. Cash $8B+ after $950M litigation.
Valuation insane:
$200 vs $22 low 1580% YTD, +295% 6M, high $254. P/S 41x, P/B 9x, EPS -$7.25, Net -141% margin. Street PT $118 (42% down). 3 Buy/14 Hold/3 Sell. Oct 22 -25% on cancer data leak.
Call: 80% EPS BEAT (season + cost cuts) but stock - Sell the beat 1 needs >$950M + loss <-$0.90 + 2026 raise$PEPE This wave of the market killed too many people. On October 23rd, it was pulled up to a monthly high of 0.000005076, RSI soared to 94 overbought, attracting a large number of leveraged long positions rushing in. What happened? Huge whales started moving coins to exchanges, with a net inflow of 2.11 trillion coins, and the bulls were directly slaughtered. On October 15th, nearly 1 billion was liquidated across the network, and low-Utility high-Beta coins fell even worse than the overall market.
How was this trap dug out: PEPE has no unlocking selling pressure (100% circulating), but whales control 41%. Pumping up to dump is normal. It smashed down from 0.000004448 to 0.000004347, the oscillating downward line on the chart is the evidence.
This short position of mine was picked up at the bottom of the pit. 50x leverage, opened at 0.000004448, now at 0.000004347, floating profit +113.08%. But I’m not greedy.
Has it stabilized? No.
PEPE: 0.00000440-0.00000445 is the recent support zone (also the long-short contest zone), if broken, look to 0.0000040 (channel lower edge). Above, 0.000004448 is the opening price/stop loss line, if it can’t hold back above, the pit continues. Some platform funding rates have already turned negative, shorts are overcrowded, a short squeeze could happen anytime.
This is not the bottom, this is a "longs liquidated then shorts liquidated" turnover pit. The short position’s error tolerance at 50x leverage is only 2%, before FOMC, don’t rush to bottom fish, wait for the signal. $BTC $ETH