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✨Don't be misled by the market consensus that the October FOMC will pause rate hikes; this is not a substantial positive.
The better-than-expected PMI data shows the current economy remains hot, with corporate selling prices hitting the fastest increase in over a year, and inflation stickiness far from fully dissipated. This pause is by no means a signal of policy shift; rather, it means the high interest rate environment will last longer, and the market's previous expectations for rate cuts have basically fallen through.
On the market front, BTC barely maintains sideways movement relying solely on the pause in rate hikes expectation. The high interest rate environment suppresses incremental off-exchange capital inflows. Spot ETF funds mostly exhibit impulsive quick in-and-out behavior, lacking sustained buying support. The upper-level trapped positions accumulate layer upon layer, making it difficult to form an effective breakout without liquidity easing. ETH, as a follower, shows weaker performance; the ecosystem currently lacks new growth catalysts, capital is cautious, and under the high interest rate drain effect, price elasticity is worse. During market corrections, ETH often falls more sharply. The current sideways movement is not a true stabilization; rebounds lacking capital support are mostly bull traps. Operationally, blind chasing of highs or bottoms is inadvisable. Long-term bullish logic can be retained, but short-term trading requires strict stop-loss enforcement; never stubbornly hold and amplify risks.
Do not treat the pause in rate hikes as a reversal indicator for the market. The stronger the economic data, the more confidence the Federal Reserve has to maintain high rates. Policy uncertainty remains the core variable hanging over all risk assets.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
$BTC $ETH Browsing Orbit tonight, I went through dozens of posts with cards, and one feeling is becoming clearer: the card itself doesn't tell the story, it's the text around the card that does. First, here are three real cards that appeared tonight, all from public posts in the Orbit feed, and I haven't changed a single word: The first one, Yolstoy泰泰's ETH card: perpetual 100x short, position held, snapshot on October 22 at 17:20, profit +179.78, card face +245.12%. The text is very honest: account $667, next target $1000, watching ETH support at 2350, BTC at 80800, still holding shorts, and asked, "Will there be an inertial rebound on Friday?" The second one, Bald Climber's BTC card: perpetual 100x long, position held, snapshot on October 24 at 07:16, card face -169.82%. The text is just one sentence: "Is this one going to crash?" The third set is the most interesting, two cards of the same coin IRYS, with completely opposite directions. Shield Bureau 1995's card: perpetual 3x short, position held, snapshot on October 24 at 09:11, profit +2.09K, card face +62.87%, text four words "Lick once and run." Another card from "Made 1 million USD and logged off": perpetual 10x long, position held, snapshot on October 24 at 07:24, profit -49.5, card face -550.Bought an ugly duck for 700 yuan, now the floor price is only $13! This wave is just too brutal 😂
A project released a batch of duck avatar NFTs, claiming they grant access to creator events, leaderboard boosts, and reward pool shares. The minting price was about 2.5 SOL, roughly $400 at the time. Some even chased high up to 7 SOL, about $1400 each.
The project collected around 5000 SOL from these NFTs, equivalent to about $750,000. A few weeks later, the point-earning gameplay through posting was directly cut off by platform rules. The official account was also banned. The floor price crashed all the way down to about $13 to $20. The high-priced one lost nearly $1300.
Even more painful, the team still holds those 5000 SOL. SOL dropped from around $160-$170 to near $100, so that amount on the books is now roughly $500,000. Someone checked on-chain and found they only started unstaking last month, converting to stablecoins.
Holders complain they bought ducks for hundreds of dollars but never won any event draws. This circle makes many promises but often delivers late. It’s heartbreaking just watching.SOXL is a daily 3x leveraged long semiconductor ETF, suitable only for short-term trading and not for long-term holding; it suffers from compounding decay (daily rebalancing loss) and will continuously lose value in a volatile downward market. The following analysis is for market observation only and does not constitute any investment advice.
1. Current status at the 85 price level
Recent range: 80.83–87.61, with 85 being a neutral to slightly upper resistance level after this round of decline.
- Upper resistance: 87–90 range, which is a dense selling pressure zone during the recent rebound; only by stabilizing above 90 can the rebound space toward 95+ open up.
- Lower support: Around 80 is a strong recent low support; if it breaks below 80 effectively, the next support range is 72–75.
- Major trend: Mid-term is in a main downtrend channel, with a huge drop in October. Although a large amount of capital has bottom-fished, this buying has not reversed the downtrend, representing a typical "retail investors catching the falling knife, institutions reducing positions" pattern.
2. Two scenario simulations
1. Bullish scenario (rebound)
Trigger conditions: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index SOX stabilizes, weighted chip stocks like Nvidia stop falling, and US Treasury yields decline.
If the 85 level breaks above 87 with volume, the short-term target is 90–95; however, this is more of a technical rebound and unlikely to directly reverse the major trend. The rebound is suitable for quick in-and-out trades, not for long-term holding.🔥 213,000 people liquidated 800 million, but a whale opened a long position of 37.8 million on ZEC!
In the past 24 hours, about 800 million USD was liquidated across the entire network, with $BTC liquidations totaling 235 million, over 213,000 people forcibly closed, most of them long positions. BTC once dropped to 79,277, $ETH fell below 2300, and SOL dropped below 100. On October 22, the spot Bitcoin ETF saw a single-day net outflow of 635.6 million, the largest since June, with a two-day cumulative outflow of 774 million, offsetting more than 70% of the previous 1.07 billion net inflow.
But at the same time, on-chain data shows two 10x long positions totaling 29,798 ZEC were opened within 15 hours, with a nominal value of about 37.57 million USD. Since the launch of the Grayscale spot ETF, ZEC has still surged by 2,076% cumulatively.
Retail investors are being liquidated, ETFs are withdrawing, whales are going long. These three things happening simultaneously indicate that the current market has no "consensus direction," only funds at different time dimensions are battling each other. Every candlestick you chase is gambling against an opponent on another cycle.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ 💡 Who holds the funds in the US market? Two giant whales' long positions provide the answer.
After ETH's pullback, the trader address with a 100% win rate, 0xe813, directly opened a long position of 26,974 $ETH, worth about $63.88 million, currently floating a profit of $842,000 (monitored by Lookonchain); another whale is even heavier: a long position of 93,184 ETH, with liquidation prices pressed at 2,256 and 2,226 respectively. These two lines are the whales' lifelines and can also serve as reference points for tonight's retracement—if the price falls below, the long positions will suffer first.
The US market sentiment is also cooperating: OpenAI resumes frontier model training, US tech stocks rally collectively in after-hours trading, Intel after-hours +1.86%, Micron, SanDisk, AMD all up over 1%, the computing power narrative heats up again.
My stance: short-term bullish, because whales dare to add longs after the drop, indicating risk appetite is warming up. But when whales lose, it's mass liquidations—don't mistake others' confidence for your own position.
Crypto assets are high risk; the above is personal observation, not investment advice, please DYOR.
Do you think this wave of whale longs is a true signal or a trap? Take a side in the comments.
#欧意星球 #BTC行情 #以太坊 #巨鲸监测 #美盘行情凌晨那根针，把多少人的仓位扎穿了？现在V型拉回来，是不是又觉得大底到了、手开始痒了？ 先别急着抄。我盯着数据看了半天，这波反弹最刺眼的不是价格，是资金偏好根本没转向。BTC现价80880，凌晨插到79168又被硬拽上来，可4小时多空比还挂在2.24；ETH现价2357，下探2281，多空比直接飙到2.85；SOL现价102.3，破百后拉回，4小时多空比居然3.26。价格在修复，杠杆却没被洗干净，这说明散户在下面疯狂接刀、死扛，仓位量不降反增。 我自己看盘有个习惯：反弹时先看谁在加仓。这轮加仓的是散户多头，不是主力。那问题就来了，车这么重，鲸鱼凭什么帮你抬？资金偏好这一层更微妙，ETF买盘反复、FOMC临近，增量资金明显偏谨慎，愿意追高的钱在变少，愿意抄底的钱却在变多，这种结构最容易演成二次探底。 偏多的路径也有：如果BTC能稳在8万上方、ETH守住2300，空头回补会带来一波像样的反抽，山寨情绪也能喘口气。但风险没被看见的地方在于，多空比这么高，任何一次假突破都可能触发连环爆仓，杠杆不清，反弹就只是修复不是反转。 我今天给自己的纪律很简单：不追这根V，等杠杆洗一轮再说。仓位轻一点，节奏#SK Hynix Q3 earnings report is coming, can HBM4 boost profitability? 一位只做 $BTC 的交易者，在社交媒体上刷到满屏盈利截图后，一天之内在 $IRYS 上连续三次开仓、三次被打穿，累计亏损37万U。这不是段子，而是当下低流动性代币生态最真实的缩影：当叙事被无限放大，筹码却高度集中，散户面对的从来不是行情，而是一台精心设计的收割机。 值得警惕的不是亏损本身，而是亏损的路径。第一笔空单瞬间爆仓，第二笔网格空单被一根暴力拉升的阳线直接扫掉，第三笔情绪反转追多，价格又毫无征兆地垂直下坠。三次方向全错，看似运气差，实则是同一个结构性问题的三种表现——在极端行情里，所谓的流动性只是幻觉，你根本来不及离场。这正是当前山寨叙事轮动加速时，最容易被忽视的二阶风险：热度越高，深度越薄，滑点与插针的杀伤力被成倍放大。 真正让这套机制成立的，是筹码分布。$IRYS 前100个地址掌握着绝对控制权，想画什么形态就画什么形态。这意味着K线、MACD、KDJ这些技术工具在绝对控盘面前几乎失效——你研究的是图形，对手盘研究的是你的本金。散户盯着十倍涨幅眼红，巨鲸盯着的是你的仓位。这条因果链，才是“垃圾币”三个字背后最冷酷的市场逻辑。 换个角度看，这也解释了为什么越来越多资金在叙事退Whale short positions are floating at a loss, relying on funding fees to "collect rent"
A set of full-position short orders appeared on-chain, with BTC, ETH, and SOL all shorted. Currently, all are floating at a loss, but the funding fee income is considerable, following a "holding the position to collect rent" strategy.
- BTC short｜5X: Position -2640.2 BTC, entry price 76331.0U, floating loss -10.7719 million U, funding fee +3.0693 million U, liquidation price 143384.22U.
- ETH short｜5X: Position -106,400 ETH, entry price 2322.74U, floating loss -1.0915 million U, funding fee +4.2075 million U, liquidation price 3882.91U.
- SOL short｜7X: Position -720,100 SOL, entry price 94.3199U, floating loss -4.7597 million U, funding fee +3.7976 million U, liquidation price 326.33U.
Core logic: Not simply betting on a price drop, but continuously collecting rent through positive funding fees. However, if prices continue to rise, funding rates turn negative, or liquidation prices are hit, the risk will significantly increase. $BNB is one of the few mainstream coins in the green today. Binance is currently around 739, up 0.9% in 24h. The lowest point hit 718 at 11 PM Beijing time last night, and it reached 748.65 at noon today, rebounding about 4.3% from the low.
The story behind this is tokenized stocks: According to Blockworks' Q3 data, tokenized stock trading volume on BNB Chain was $25.6 billion, about 11 times the $2.4 billion in Q2, surpassing Robinhood Chain's $10.2 billion and Solana's $6.4 billion.
However, ARK's statistics only show $16.5 billion and specifically mention that Binance's incentive activities might have inflated the volume, so I would discount that figure somewhat.
On the same track, OKX and ICE haven't been as smooth. Reuters reported that 22 companies have opposed tokenizing their stocks, including Microsoft, Alphabet, and Wells Fargo.
Binance contract BNB holdings are about 547,000 tokens, equivalent to roughly $400 million, with a funding rate of only 0.004%. This rise is quite clean, with little leverage.
My view is that BNB has indeed benefited from the tokenized stock boom, but since it hasn't reached 750 today, I will watch without chasing before the Federal Reserve meeting.Wang Chun said: If you sold early at $BTC 60,000 or 70,000 and didn't have the courage to buy back above 80,000, then consider SpaceX.
He said $SPCX is the best investment besides Bitcoin, as you will be investing in the future of humanity's multi-planet development. Also, remember to sell when OpenAI and Anthropic go public, because these two might cause the entire AI industry to collapse.
Who is Wang Chun?
He is the co-founder of Fish Pool (founded in 2013 with Shen Yu), an early Bitcoin miner and a key promoter of mining infrastructure. In April 2025, he invested 200 million USD to complete humanity's first manned polar orbit flight aboard the Dragon spacecraft. In May 2026, SpaceX officially announced it will be the first to truly fly by Mars and then return to Earth.When Layer2 completely absorbs mainnet interactions and on-chain gas fees drop to near zero, the deflation narrative of $ETH can no longer support a valuation of 2,453.59 — a decisive 100x short position yielded +481.86% profit, which says it all.
Mainnet activity does not determine the coin price; gas fees do. Once gas fees stop, the burn mechanism becomes just a facade, and high-leverage longs are more easily worn down slowly in a gradual decline than in a sharp drop.
2,335.35 is not the end point; it is the first stop in the repricing of the deflation narrative.
As long as Layer2 locked value continues to rise and mainnet gas fees show no improvement, any rebound will become a new pressure window. $BTC $SOL #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ BTC stuck at $80,000, Fear and Greed Index at 51, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to 3.75%—4.00%. Altcoin season index hits a one-year high of 66, but 20 out of 26 narrative categories are declining, with an upward breadth of only 23.1%. The index is rising, but the market is dead — this is not rotation, but a few assets absorbing the existing liquidity.
AI Agent payments are the most misunderstood. The x402 ecosystem has accumulated over 165 million transactions, Base chain AI Agent payments exceed 138 million transactions, but the total payment amount is only $50 million, with 87% of single transactions between 0.01 and 10 cents. About 5 on-chain payments occur per second, each less than the price of a lollipop. Volume exists, money does not, protocol revenue is almost zero.
RWA fragmentation is even more blatant. On-chain total market value is $39.18 billion, with 5.26 million holders, a 16.3% month-over-month increase; RWA 30-day trading volume on XRP Ledger surged 1458%, but token price did not follow. Ondo tokenized assets exceed $4 billion, up 5.74% in 30 days — fundamentals are moving, tokens are sideways.
The only hard assets with both income and buybacks are in DeFi. Aave TVL is $18.372 billion; Hyperliquid 24-hour perpetual trading volume is $24.966 billion. Buybacks are being genuinely executed: Derive increased protocol fee buyback ratio from 35% to 50%, Superform has cumulatively bought back 521,000 UP tokens with protocol revenue to distribute to stakers. This weekend's spike kept many people awake all night.
Bitcoin briefly dropped below $80,000, with CoinGlass showing over $400 million liquidated in a short window, and total 24-hour liquidations exceeding $800 million, mostly leveraged long positions. It bounced back a bit after the drop, but the hardest hit were ETF holders who couldn't move over the weekend and could only watch.
At the same time, Arthur Hayes said he had liquidated his positions. Maelstrom closed all directional positions, selling about $22 million worth of altcoins like ETH, ENA, and UNI. The reason given was the chaotic macro and geopolitical environment; the market needs to fall before it can rise again. Veteran players aren't holding on stubbornly, and this move is more noteworthy than the price itself.
Capital flow is also shifting. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day outflow of about $635 million, the largest since June, led by BlackRock IBIT; Ethereum ETFs are heading toward their worst month this year.
Two other notes: An Argentine judge dismissed the criminal investigation into Milei's LIBRA meme coin, citing insufficient evidence of criminal fraud, though investors who lost money are still appealing; hardware wallet Keystone leaked customer names and addresses due to a Shopify vulnerability, though private keys were safe—this is the fourth such incident this year.
My view: $80,000 is not the end of the long-term structure, but crowded longs combined with continuous outflows make the market fragile. $79k is a short-term level to watch; until volume expands, don't mistake the rebound for a reversal. Every morning at 7:30, the same wallet withdraws about 134 million USDC from $AAVE
Half an hour later, the exact amount is deposited back.
I checked its on-chain records: from 9/10 until today, at least 46 consecutive days without a break.
Withdrawals happen between 07:31–07:57, deposits back between 08:06–08:32, each time just crossing Beijing time 8:00, which is UTC 0:00.
Today at 07:34, it withdrew 134,028,134 tokens again.
Even more absurd, 14 phishing addresses impersonating its receiving address (0x3117…bF18) follow it daily, forging 100 "zero-amount transfers" records, just waiting for it to make a copying mistake one day.
What exactly is it hiding from at 0:00?How long does it take to break through after the monthly candle closes bullish during a bull market rise?
In past bull markets, whenever the price rise met a $BTC monthly candle closing bullish, it would enter a consolidation period lasting 4 to 6 months.
Currently, in October, we are about to see a $BTC monthly candle close bullish.
This indicates a consolidation period of about 4-5 months ahead, and a smooth market trend may not come until January or February next year.
With multiple liquidity events occurring, the current area is very likely a short-term high.BTC once dropped below 80,000, now trading around 80,300, down only about 0.4% in 24 hours. The decline doesn't seem significant at first glance, but the process was quite scary, with 24-hour liquidations exceeding $800 million at one point, and long-term bulls accounting for more than 80%. This wave is not a price crash but a round of leverage liquidation, which must be tough for those holding positions.
The funding side hasn't been kind either. Spot BTC ETFs saw outflows of about $636 million on Thursday, the largest since June, followed by another $138 million on Friday, nearly wiping out the inflows from the previous three days. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve's meeting is scheduled for October 27-28, September CPI came in at 3.7%, exceeding expectations, Middle East tensions are pushing oil prices up, inflation stickiness concerns remain, 10-year US Treasury yields are high, raising the cost of capital for risk assets, and high-beta assets like crypto are the first to be pressured.
ETH is around 2,330, down 1.6%, weaker than BTC, having lost the 2,400 level early, with the next support at 2,300. ETH ETFs are also seeing outflows, increasing pressure on leveraged longs. SOL is around 100.7, down 0.8%, with the 100 level just ahead. High-beta assets rise sharply but fall quickly; currently, SOL lacks an independent narrative and can only follow the broader market.
My view: 80,000 is now the focal point of the bulls and bears battle. Holding it can serve as a consolidation bottom; losing it points to around 78,000. ETF funds are weak, and there is a lack of strong buying in the short term. At least wait for US Treasury yields to peak and fall back, and for BTC to firmly reclaim above 83,000 before considering further moves. Defense is more important than offense now; even if you're eager, you have to hold back.
$BTC $SOL $ETH I saw someone say this morning that the 300 million net inflow for BTC spot ETFs this week is almost entirely carried by BlackRock IBIT alone. I broke down Farside's table by fund, and the money coming in from IBIT alone is 1.88 times the net amount for the whole week, while the remaining 10 funds combined had a net outflow of 265 million this week.
Excluding IBIT, this week was a net outflow week. At first, I thought it was just a few small funds exiting, but Fidelity's fund also had a net outflow this week, as did Grayscale and Ark.
So I see this 300 million as BlackRock alone absorbing it, while others are moving out. Let's not be too confident about the market buy-side stabilizing yet. When the numbers come out next Friday, if those 10 funds excluding IBIT collectively flip back to net inflow, I'll admit I was wrong.
By the way, to reconcile, I said last night that if OKX BTC users drop below 1.8 million tonight, I'd be wrong. Just checked, it's still 2.01 million, and the funding fees are still settling positively, so that statement stands.
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ AWS, this money-printing machine, has fully pressed the accelerator.🏎️
The just-released Q3 earnings report has one highlight: acceleration.
👇 Let's quickly break down the ledger:
📈 Revenue skyrocketed: AWS hit $33 billion in a single quarter, with growth rebounding to 20.2%, marking the fastest pace in nearly two years.
💰 Profit cash cow: Operating profit of $11.4 billion directly supports two-thirds of Amazon's total profits.
But the most interesting part was CEO Jassy's candid remark on the call: "The faster we increase production, the faster we monetize." In other words: the building isn't fully completed yet, but the computing power is already snapped up, and tenants are lining up with money at the door.
Let's see how crazy the demand is:
🔥 Trainium2 chip orders are completely sold out.
🔥 In the past year, capacity was crazily increased by 3.8 gigawatts, but the bottleneck isn't chips—it's power supply.
Of course, behind the joy of collecting rent is the pain of burning cash.
Q3 capital expenditure hit $34.2 billion, aiming for $125 billion for the full year. Free cash flow shrank directly to $14.8 billion. Plus, $2.5 billion FTC settlement and $1.8 billion severance costs make the profit statement a bit painful.
In summary:
Don't be scared by one-time expenses and shrinking cash flow. Amazon is desperately building the infrastructure, even running short on electricity. The pipelines are being massively expanded, and as soon as computing power goes online, it can be monetized. This rent will be collected sooner or later.🔧
#AWS算力需求旺盛，亚马逊Q3财报有哪些看点？ SpaceX's performance surge rumored merger, timing has nothing to do with performance. The market estimates SpaceX's current annual revenue to be around $15 billion, with Starlink accounting for more than half. The latest tender offer pushed the valuation to the range of $350 billion to $400 billion. If it really merges with Tesla, the combined market value would head toward $1.4 trillion. Sounds impressive, so I reviewed this from the beginning, and the timing issue has little to do with revenue growth.
1. Shareholding structure. SpaceX has dual-class shares, with Musk's voting rights far exceeding his economic interest; Tesla recently went through a round of compensation plan revisions. Both sides have minority shareholders who need to vote, so how to negotiate price and governance arrangements—there's no shortcut here.
2. Regulation. SpaceX holds FAA launch licenses, FCC Starlink spectrum, and Department of Defense contracts. These are reviewed annually and are completely different from typical antitrust reviews.
3. The scale is too large. A $1.4 trillion combined market cap—currently, US stock liquidity is concentrated in a few large-cap stocks, so who will absorb this volume is a real issue.
So the focus is very straightforward: Has any formal document been submitted to the SEC? If yes, the valuation logic needs to be rewritten; if not, it's still Musk's post-style hype, and two days have passed. The spillover effect to the crypto space is even smaller, as the funds on both sides basically do not overlap. Don't expect this to bring over-the-counter money in.
#SpaceX业绩大增，与特斯拉合并能否推进？ #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
10月FOMC会议临近，市场普遍预期美联储将按兵不动，但“暂停”背后仍存三大变数。
首先，通胀反复构成核心挑战。最新9月CPI同比升至3.7%，环比连续攀升，核心通胀亦达2.6%，高于预期。若数据持续超预期，可能迫使美联储重新评估“暂停”立场，甚至重启加息讨论。
其次，政策分歧隐现。7月会议纪要显示，已有三名票委支持加息，部分官员倾向进一步收紧。若10月会议中鹰派声音增强，可能释放“暂停非终点”的信号，影响市场利率预期。
第三，外部压力不容忽视。全球债券供给增加推高长端利率，若美债收益率持续上行，美联储或面临“被动加息”压力，以维持政策可信度。
尽管野村等机构认为通胀动能减弱，暂停加息概率上升，且选举年历史规律也支持“观望”，但美联储仍强调数据依赖。若就业与消费数据保持韧性，暂停可能只是“中场休息”。
综上，10月大概率暂停，但点阵图与鲍威尔表态将成关键风向标。市场需警惕“鹰派暂停”带来的波动。$BTC $ETH $BTC Short-term holder profit/loss chip ratio (STH Supply Profit/Loss Ratio). Simply put, it is the ratio of the amount of BTC held by short-term holders (holding less than 155 days) that is in profit to the amount that is at a loss.
From the chart, as it is the early stage of a bull market, that is, the transition from bear to bull, the "pain level" of short-term holders is close to the same period in 2023 and has not yet reached the level seen during the mid-bull market deep corrections.
In other words, the current pullback is relatively mild, mostly digesting the chips of short-term holders rather than large-scale panic loss selling. Of course, history does not necessarily repeat itself, so we will see as it unfolds.$ZEC
ZEC is up today, but a set of numbers doesn't quite add up: current price 1216, 24-hour increase of 4.6%, and $14.02 million long positions liquidated in the same-day futures market.
Looking at the candlestick chart, it becomes clear that these liquidations mainly came from the earlier drop to 1119, and the rebound happened only after the liquidations. So it's not unusual for the rebound and liquidations to occur on the same day; the sequence was burying positions first, then pulling up.
Capital inflow is still ongoing. Grayscale's research report considers ZEC undervalued at only 0.6% of the global currency sector. Its ETF saw inflows of $41.1 million for the whole week, the highest since mid-September. I checked the fee rate at 0.0028%, holdings at $130 million, so leverage isn't tight.
The bullish view remains unchanged, but the 1225 resistance level is still in place; today's bullish candle didn't move it.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #AlphabetQ3CloudAndAI
🚨 ETH retraces 15%, contract positions shrink significantly: Is a temporary bottom forming, or is the downtrend not over yet?
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost shares data worth noting.
📉 ETH's retracement is happening in sync with deleveraging
Over the past three weeks, ETH has dropped about 15% from its peak, wiping out approximately $54 billion in market cap, with altcoins facing even greater pressure.
Changes in the derivatives market are even more noteworthy:
* Binance ETH open interest: decreased by about $1.3 billion in one month, a nearly 20% drop, down to $5.7 billion.
* Total market ETH open interest: down to about $11.5 billion.
This indicates that contract positions are contracting, and some leverage risks are being released, but it does not mean all high-leverage positions have been fully cleared.
📊 Historically, strong rebounds have occurred after deleveraging
Darkfost mentioned that ETH also experienced a significant drop in open interest in July, followed by a roughly 32% technical rebound, with the price climbing back above $2,800.
This provides a reference: when leveraged positions decrease rapidly, selling pressure may gradually ease. However, historical trends do not guarantee a repeat this time, and a decline in positions alone is not a bottom signal.
🔎 My judgment: ETH may be approaching a noteworthy temporary zone, but the bottom cannot yet be confirmed.
Next, focus on three signals:
* Whether ETH can stop falling and $BTC reported at 80445, almost flat in 24 hours, fluctuating back and forth between 79220 and 81033.
The market itself is not much to watch, but there are several major events pressing this week: First, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a proposed rule notice on October 22 for the COINS Act's foreign investment security plan, meaning that restrictions on U.S. capital investing in overseas crypto projects are entering a regulatory phase; before the detailed rules are finalized, related funds and projects will treat the worst-case scenario first, suppressing risk appetite.
Second, some analysts believe that if the Democrats win big in the midterm elections, the Clarity Act may continue to be delayed, and the SEC and CFTC will tighten regulatory measures; without the bill being finalized, institutions dare not increase their positions, which is currently the biggest uncertainty.
Third, next week's FOMC meeting will change the path, causing the dollar and long-term yields to move accordingly, and BTC's anti-devaluation logic will fluctuate accordingly.
The conclusion is simple: the upper resistance at 81000 repeatedly suppresses, the lower support at 79220 has buyers; as long as the range is not broken, chasing orders is just paying tuition to the market, there's really no need to fight it.$BTC
Bitcoin's on-chain activity has been a bit strange these past three weeks. Galaxy Research says there have been random garbled inscriptions appearing consecutively on-chain, and 28 poems were written in over 12 days. Their conclusion after investigation is: it's not encrypted information, but more like someone repeatedly testing data publishing tools.
This isn't driven by buying pressure; I just found it interesting when I skimmed the news tonight. The real wallet-related news is another one: ETFs have seen $770 million outflow over two consecutive trading days. Different sources calculate outflows differently, I won't nitpick, but the direction is clear—money is flowing out.
The market situation matches this. OKX spot is at 80,450, with a 24-hour high of 81,070 and a low of 79,220, and it did break 80,000 in between. Trader Killa says this round has already corrected 9%, and the next few weeks are suitable for dollar-cost averaging; I half believe that. Dollar-cost averaging isn't afraid of dips, but afraid of the same story dragging on for too long.
The poet isn't in a hurry, and neither am I.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？
On October 22, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of about $636 million in a single day, marking the largest single-day outflow since June; on October 23, another outflow of about $138 million occurred. The two-day total of approximately $774 million basically wiped out the previous three consecutive days' inflow of about $1.08 billion. The outflows on the 22nd and 23rd were concentrated in BlackRock IBIT, Fidelity FBTC, and ARKB, resembling pre-event position reductions and profit-taking rather than a market-wide sell-off.
However, this outflow happened at a sensitive level. The average cost of ETF holdings is around $81,000–$82,000, and the current price is pressing near this range. If it breaks below, it could trigger a negative feedback loop of "unrealized losses—redemptions—forced selling."
There is still buying interest. On-chain data shows that recently about 9,458 BTC were moved from OTC channels like Wintermute to new addresses, indicating that funds are still accumulating at lower levels; mid-to-large addresses have increased holdings by about 89,000 BTC in the past 30 days. The problem is that the accumulation is narrow: ultra-large addresses are still reducing holdings, stablecoin supply has contracted by about $4.6 billion since July, and corporate buyers' pace has clearly slowed.
The focus going forward is on three key points:
1. Whether ETF funds will have net inflows for three consecutive days;
2. Whether the price can reclaim the $82,000–$84,000 range;
3. Whether the $80,000 level can hold, as a break below may push downward pressure further.The October FOMC pause on rate hikes is a done deal, but this is by no means some damn good news. You’ve all been fooled by the explosive PMI data; the economy is so hot, corporate selling price increases are the fastest in over a year, and inflation is far from dead. This isn’t a dovish turn; it’s just sharpening the dull knife of high interest rates, shattering any hopes of a rate cut.
Look at $BTC, Bitcoin—it’s currently holding sideways only on the expectation of a pause. Macros are tightly suppressing with high rates, no fresh liquidity dares to enter off-exchange, and ETFs are just impulsive quick in-and-out trades with no strategic vision. The overhead trapped positions are stacked layer upon layer; without massive liquidity flooding in, it simply can’t break through. Don’t chase highs now; be bullish long-term but trade short-term pullbacks. If you short-term trade, you must firmly set stop losses—never hold on stubbornly, or liquidation will come in an instant.
Look at $ETH, Ethereum, still the most fragile follower. The ecosystem has no new breakout points, and capital is all on the sidelines. High rates drain liquidity first and foremost from it; when the market softens even slightly, it falls the hardest. Don’t mistake sideways movement for stabilization; rebounds without capital support are all traps—never catch a falling knife.
Look at $XAUT, gold, whose hard logic makes it the most stable. High rates persist alongside geopolitical risk, central bank buying supports it, allowing it to run an independent trend. Once the market truly prices in that the economy can’t withstand high rates, it will be the ultimate safe haven. Don’t let short-term sentiment trap your long-term logic.
In summary, don’t treat the pause as a get-out-of-jail-free card. The stronger the PMI, the more confident the Fed is to maintain high rates—that’s the sword hanging over our heads. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $APR really was a roller coaster today 🎢
At 5 AM it was still at 0.026, then surged to 0.0548 by 2 PM, more than doubling in one day. But then the same hourly candle slammed it back down to 0.0344, probably burying many who chased the high.
Now it's around 0.042. At 7 or 8 PM, it rallied again but only reached 0.0468 before being pushed down, lower than the afternoon peak. The highs are trending down, with 0.031-0.033 as the support from three afternoon pullbacks.
24h volume is close to $200 million, the heat is really high, funding rate +0.005%, bulls are still not scared.
My plan is to short on the rebound, not chase the short:
· Entry: 0.0445-0.0455 (the level where it pulled back after the evening spike)
· Stop loss: 0.0490, if it breaks above this, it means there's a second wave, admit the mistake
· Target 1: 0.0375
· Target 2: 0.0335 (afternoon platform)
This kind of small-cap altcoin can sweep 15% in one candle, so I only use small position size and low leverage. If volume supports a steady break above 0.047, this trade is invalidated, no hard holding.
What do you think, does APR have a second wave or has it already peaked?
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice, DYOR
#APR #ContractStrategy #AltcoinUS Tech Sell-Off: SNDK and Semiconductors Face a Major Reality Check Tonight's US stock market sell-off is hard to ignore. The Nasdaq fell more than 2%, while $SOXL dropped over 6%, putting semiconductor stocks under significant pressure. $SNDK has also been caught in the sell-off. After reviewing the market, I see two major reasons behind this decline. 📉 1. AI Expectations Are Being Repriced $META continues to invest heavily in AI, but investors are questioning whether massive spending will#BTC Spot ETF Fund Fluctuations, $80,000 Becomes a Key Defense Line
On Monday, BTC and ETH are expected to remain mainly volatile, with slightly greater short-term downward pressure.
BTC focuses on $80,000 support and $82,300 resistance. If ETFs flow back in, the rebound will have more confidence; if outflows continue, breaking below $80,000 may lead to further declines to $79,000 or even $76,000.
The fund flow after the U.S. stock market opens on Monday will be a key observation point.
$BTC $ETH#BTCETFFlowSwings $PUMP earns $5.78 million in fees in one day, the money-attracting speed of PUMP is a bit ridiculous.
According to the protocol's fixed mechanism, half of the net income is directly used for automatic buyback and burn. It's like there's a robot mindlessly taking the position every day; no matter how much the bears sell off, the contract bites off that amount.
Huge daily deflation, yet the price is pushed back near the ICO cost line.
The money printer is running wild, but the K-line is lying flat at the bottom pretending to be dead. With this strong burn support position, the chip loss for bears selling further down is huge; just a little capital to ignite can easily trigger a short squeeze.
#PUMP
$PUMP
👇When the $PEPE market was dead and lifeless, PEPE quietly climbed up on its own. I see that the big holders on the chain are really straightforward, directly moving nearly 30 million dollars worth of assets into their wallets.
The chips are almost all absorbed by the top ten holders, while the remaining retail investors keep shouting for a pullback in the square every day, but the price keeps rising the longer they wait. The main force has no intention of giving any chance for a dip buy at this position; once the weekly trend breaks out, the bears don’t even make a move to resist.
#PEPE
$PEPE
👇This rebound looks more like a capital turnover, with over 100 million flowing in within 2 hours, but 700 million withdrawn in 24 hours.
BTC has seen a net spot inflow of $5.77 million and a net contract inflow of $120 million in the last 2 hours, showing a sudden return of buying interest. However, extending the period to 24 hours, spot shows a net outflow of $168 million and contracts a net outflow of $554 million, totaling over $720 million outflow. Some short-term buyers are stepping in, but mid-term positions are still being reduced.
ETH shows an even more pronounced contrast. In 2 hours, contracts had a net inflow of $114 million, but in 24 hours, contracts had a net outflow of $712 million and spot a further outflow of $116 million. The short-term green data only covers a small part of the earlier capital loss; ETH remains the weakest among the major coins.
SOL spot had a net inflow of $2.28 million in 2 hours, but in 24 hours spot outflow was $6.78 million and contracts outflow was $97.97 million, indicating the rebound lacks contract capital support.
ZEC continues its independent trend, with a 24-hour spot net inflow of $10.93 million and contract net inflow of $65.14 million, and a one-week contract net inflow of $229 million. Its strength comes from localized capital concentration and does not represent a market-wide strengthening.
Overall market positions continue to decline by 1.41%, with about $526 million liquidated in 24 hours. The current inflow can only support a short-term rebound; the 24-hour capital structure of BTC and ETH has not been repaired and remains bearish.After reviewing the latest fee rates and position structure simulations, I can't help but bitterly smile when I look down at my own live account. Spot is drifting down, and contract longs are "paying to hold on," perfectly matching the current market fracture in my account.
$BTC: A typical case of "financing hope"
As the simulation said, the price is falling but the number of open long contracts is still increasing. My average BTC price is 81244, current price 80423, with a floating loss as deep as -20.20%. In this downtrend, I am basically the stubborn long who refuses to admit defeat. Now I can only keep a close eye on the liquidation bottom line at 77400. When will the longs stop paying? You'll know when my position blows up.
$BZ (Crude Oil): The macro hedge trump card
Currently around 617, the yield has soared to an extremely exaggerated +1365%. This perfectly explains why the crypto market is falling: Middle East risk aversion has drained liquidity. This 3x isolated margin hedge position is the only trump card against deep BTC losses. Its role now is not trading but buying insurance.
$BNB: On-exchange funds huddling for warmth
Currently around 749, profits are steady at +113%. Amid the chaos, funds are crazily clustering into strong assets. It is the solid defensive cushion in the account.
Summary:
Prices can deceive, but fees and structure do not. My BTC longs are still stubbornly holding, but cross-asset hedging must be done well. Abandon illusions; survival is the hard truth. Everyone, do you think the 76% longs in SOL will surrender above 100? #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ $BTC Orbit is full of short position screenshots, but OKX's data is exactly the opposite: in BTC contracts, the number of long accounts is 2.07 times that of short accounts.
Those who post screenshots are a minority; the real positions are on the other side.
And on the side with more people, every 8 hours they have to pay "funding fees" to the other side:
Since 9/22, out of 100 settlements, 84 times longs paid shorts.
At the average rate during this period, holding a 10x long position for a year would consume about 44% of the principal just in funding fees.
Check the funding rate before opening a contract: even if the direction is right, money can still be slowly eaten away by the fees.
Not investment advice | Data: OKX public API (long-short ratio as of 10/25 20:00, BTC-USDT perpetual funding rate) #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ 🚨 BTC dropped over the weekend without obvious deleveraging: both bulls and bears continue to add positions, and the next wave of volatility could be even more intense!
This weekend's pullback might not be just a normal price adjustment. When liquidity is low, prices tend to fluctuate more rapidly, but it’s still uncertain whether this is just a temporary liquidity shock.
📉 On-chain data: no clear panic yet
According to this market analysis, realized losses have not increased but actually decreased, indicating no obvious panic-driven loss realization on-chain for now. However, a single indicator is insufficient to assess the overall market risk.
⚠️ What really deserves attention is contract leverage
Since October 14, BTC perpetual contract open interest has been steadily accumulating, and this round of pullback seems not to have fully digested the leverage.
When both bulls and bears add positions simultaneously, the market may be accumulating greater volatility risk under the surface. Once prices trigger concentrated liquidations, rapid surges or sharp drops may occur.
🔎 Next, watch two directions:
* Short squeeze upward: BTC rebounds, forcing shorts to liquidate, further pushing prices higher.
* Long liquidation downward: BTC continues to weaken, longs liquidate en masse, intensifying downward pressure.
🛡️ Practical risk tips:
* Reduce leverage: Don’t recklessly increase position size just because a big move is expected.
* Set stop-losses in advance: Define invalidation price before entry to avoid making stop-loss decisions after losses widen.
* Control single trade risk: Adjust position size according to stop-loss distance; don’t put too much capital on a single direction. A new round of strikes has not been confirmed yet, but Middle Eastern stock markets have already fallen first.
On Sunday, the Egyptian stock market plunged about 5% intraday, and the Saudi stock market also dropped sharply.
The conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi forces has escalated; Saudi Arabia claims to have intercepted drones and missiles; Trump has not ruled out new actions against Iran. Meanwhile, the Iranian military claims to have shot down a US military drone, and the Iranian foreign minister warned: the Strait of Hormuz will no longer be the same as before.
These reports do not necessarily mean the war will immediately expand, but the market has already started pricing in the risk of escalation.
What the market fears most is not a strike that has already happened, but the uncertainty about what will happen next.
On Monday, watch the oil prices first.
If oil prices jump again, the impact will not only be on energy stocks but also on inflation, interest rate expectations, and the valuation of global risk assets.
#中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 The brief rebound after leverage liquidation does not mean the market dares to boldly go long. In fact, this time it is most likely just a concentrated leverage cleanup, which is completely different from a sustained price crash.
In 24 hours, 810 million was liquidated, 200,000 people were liquidated, the vast majority were long positions, and the total open interest shrank rapidly. It is clear that the main force's goal is not to keep pushing prices down, but to first wash out the high-leverage longs in the market, then stabilize the downtrend. This is a one-time release of short-term risk.
But don't simply take this as the end of the shakeout and that the market is about to take off; the key is whether funds dare to re-enter the market and take risks.
The news suppressing the market now are all short-term events that will eventually materialize; meanwhile, large holders and retail investors are quietly accumulating BTC, and many new addresses are slowly hoarding coins, but they do not intend to pump the market immediately, instead laying out their positions gradually.
However, the market itself is still weak. There are several resistance lines above BTC, making rebounds difficult. The low point this round is 79,000; ETH is even weaker, with many obstacles above for a rebound. On the futures side, shorts are reducing positions, and some are trying to go long, but confidence is insufficient. The 2250 level is the cost line for many longs, making it hard to break through in one go.
ZEC is relatively stronger, with a slight rebound above the short-term moving average. This quiet repair in small coins best reflects the true intentions of current funds.
Right now, it is just a brief pause after leverage has been cleaned out, not a return of market risk appetite.
Leverage has been washed out, but the risk has not disappeared. The real bottom depends on continuous spot fund inflows, not just short-term sentiment speculation in futures.🚨 Spot market is falling, but contract longs are still holding strong: SOL funding rate turns negative, yet 76.4% of accounts remain long!
BTC, SOL, and XRP show different market signals, with divergence between price trends and position structures.
₿ BTC｜Down 3.7%, open interest rises to $7.72 billion
According to the data provided, the perpetual contract funding rate remains positive, and the open interest has increased to $7.72 billion. Price decline alongside rising open interest indicates new positions are still entering, but it’s unclear whether these funds are bottom-fishing or continuing to short.
◎ SOL｜Funding rate turns negative, long-short structure diverges
8-hour average funding rate dropped to -0.021%. In the past 24 hours, long liquidations totaled about $17.3 million, while short liquidations were about $1 million.
Meanwhile, 76.4% of accounts hold long positions, but longs only account for 48.1% of active trades. There is a clear discrepancy between account position directions and active trading structure, warranting close monitoring.
♦️ XRP｜Valuation is low, supply pressure persists
365-day MVRV dropped to 0.92, indicating the average holding value of related holders may be about 8% below cost. Exchange reserves still hold 11.81 billion XRP, valued at approximately $15.7 billion based on the provided data.
Low valuation does not mean the price has bottomed, and reserve size does not imply these tokens will be sold immediately.
🔎 Next, watch these three signals:
* BTC: Whether open interest and positive funding rate persist during price declines $ARB
Unlike STRK, can assets in the same sector still be allocated evenly?
In this morning's spot snapshot, ARB's 24-hour price change was +0.65%, ranging from 0.16354 to 0.17296 USDT.
ARB is positive while STRK declined, indicating that shared tags cannot explain token pricing. Differences in supply, liquidity, and actual stake can cause long-term divergence among technically related assets.
If the relative advantage over ETH and peers continues, independent recovery is more credible; if it only leads for a short period, it is unwise to upgrade the difference to a full sector recovery. Repeated tugging near the key level: Is BTC consolidating, or are the rebound highs shifting lower?
I tend to view the current situation as a tug-of-war within a range, not yet a consolidation. Although BTC has returned above $80,000, the current price is still caught between the rolling 24-hour high and low; whether the rebound has restored the structure depends on if it can reclaim the upper boundary of the range, not just a few hundred points of bounce signaling strength.
Next, I’m watching two levels: around 81,070 is the current 24-hour high, and 79,220 is the low. If the rebound meets resistance again near the upper boundary and then falls back to effectively break below 79,220, I will consider the "lowering rebound highs and breached lows" as confirmation of weakness.
Conversely, if the price breaks above 81,070 with volume and holds on the pullback, and subsequent lows rise, it looks more like a short-term consolidation. The counterpoint is that the lows haven’t been breached yet and the drop isn’t significant, so we can’t conclude bears have regained control just based on a pullback; however, as long as the upper boundary isn’t reclaimed, the buyers haven’t taken the initiative.
If it’s just grinding back and forth below the upper boundary without volume expansion, both sides could be swept by false moves. I won’t define the trend based on a momentary spike; the focus is on effective closes and pullback results. My invalidation conditions are clear: if it holds above 81,070 and the pullback doesn’t break it, the bearish view is withdrawn; if it breaks below 79,220 and fails to rebound, the consolidation theory is void. Don’t chase direction in the middle of the range; wait for boundary closes to confirm before following.
$BTC #OKXOrbitTopicIsHere #OrbitDaily The evening rebound remains weak, with $BTC and $ETH approaching lows, and bears closely watching whether key support will be broken! No need to rush to take profits or stop losses to protect capital!
Tonight, I still have a bearish outlook on BTC and ETH. BTC is currently at $80,320, down -0.44% from the opening price of $80,671.25 24 hours ago; ETH is at $2,326.50, down -1.83% from the opening price of $2,369.86. The intraday low for BTC was $79,220, and for ETH $2,282, with prices unable to break out of the low consolidation.
The previous sharp rise and fall, I believe, is not due to a single bearish factor: BTC fell back from the 7-day high of $84,898, and ETH from $2,526. The profit-taking after the rally combined with leverage squeeze is the main cause. Public market information shows that on October 24, there was about $192 million in liquidations within a single hour, with longs accounting for about $184 million. The rapid deleveraging amplified the decline; stablecoin regulatory progress and institutional on-chain deployments are medium-term factors, but are currently insufficient to reverse short-term risk appetite.
Technically, BTC's MACD has a death cross, RSI(6) is 32.21, below MA7 $81,839 and MA25 $82,941, with a large net outflow of 12.49%; ETH's MACD also has a death cross, RSI(6) is only 24.05, although oversold, it remains below MA7 $2,399 and MA25 $2,505, and the super trend also remains downward. #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ and constructive guidance; Tesla beat numbers but the stock was punished (high expectations + auto + heavy AI/robot spend). The real test arrives this week with Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon, Potentially, investors will focus less on the pure beats and more on AI/cloud demand, capex plans, and whether the massive spending is starting to show clearer returns.What is unlocking? The token lock-up period for the project team, early investors, and others ends, granting circulation eligibility. But "can sell" ≠ "will sell." Why might it cause pressure? 1. Increased circulating supply 2. Different holders have different selling motivations (early investors cashing out vs. team holding locked tokens) 3. The market may trade on expectations in advance or experience volatility beyond expectations Four key points to watch: • The amount unlocked and its proportion of the current circulating supply (not total supply) • Who the unlock recipients are and their historical behavior • Market absorption capacity (liquidity, trading depth) • Whether actual on-chain transfers go into exchanges Core judgment principle: Distinguish three concepts — gaining circulation eligibility ≠ transferring to exchanges ≠ actual selling. Unlocking is a supply clue, not a buy/sell signal. It must be evaluated in combination with project progress, demand growth, and overall market conditions. In short, token unlocking is not a trigger for a crash; the proportion of unlocked tokens to circulating supply + holder motivation + market liquidity together provide analytical value. $BTC Conclusion first: $CAP rose 30% in 24 hours today, but on OKX its order book is so thin that $5,000 can wipe out the buy orders.
OKX only has CAP-USDT-SWAP, no CAP-USDT spot (1 contract = 100 CAP, 10x leverage). I took three snapshots in a row: about $5,000 in buy orders at 20 levels, about $4,500 in sell orders, and about $70,000 fully loaded at 100 levels; meanwhile, 24-hour perpetual trading volume is 624 million CAP ≈ $60.5 million, open interest only $4.53 million, 13x turnover.
The problem is the coin is rising, but protocol data is shrinking: Cap protocol TVL on DefiLlama is $201.9 million, down 10.4% in 7 days, cUSD stablecoin market cap only $75 million. CoinGecko market cap is $150 million, FDV $963 million (6.4x dilution), circulating supply 15.6%. Funding rate has been stuck at the 0.005% floor, indicating no short squeeze; buy orders are on BSC and Bybit spot (BSC 24h $12 million, Bybit spot $8 million).
Rising doesn’t mean it can be sold off. How large of an order would you place in such an order book?$ETH is drained by ETFs, $ZEC and others upgrade to rescue.
Ethereum: In October, ETF net outflow reached $1.08 billion, the highest single-month amount this year. Price around 2,390, support at 2,355, resistance at 2,445/2,500. The Hoodi testnet upgrade of Glamsterdam has been delayed due to security controversies around EIP-8037/8038, losing a short-term catalyst. ETF outflows continue, rebounds are opportunities to reduce positions.
ZEC: After a 200% surge in September, it retraced over 30%, now around 1,200. Grayscale ZEC ETF saw an inflow of $41.1 million last week, indicating a shift in capital direction. NU7 upgrade confirmed: block time reduced from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, but the Sprout pool will be closed. 1,200 is a key battleground; daily close above 1,223 signals a reversal; breaking below 1,000 targets 750–800.
In short: For ETH, watch if 2,355 support holds; for ZEC, watch if 1,200 can be maintained. Avoid heavy positions before NU7 launch; event-driven "buy the rumor, sell the fact" risks are high.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ just above 79,000 with a long lower wick, then was pulled back up. Looking at the order book data, nearly $430 million worth of long positions were liquidated that day.
Immediately in the comments, someone posted a screenshot shouting "fake drop, the bottom is here." What I see is something else: this is a shakeout of longs, not a creation of demand. Leveraged long positions were cleared out all at once, making the market lighter, but the rebound barely had any volume to support it.👀 Top-level big short whale position exposed, after reading it you’ll immediately understand the big picture!
This whale has a very impressive historical track record, with total profits already reaching 180 million USD, and 25.22 million USD earned in just 24 hours. However, currently all three short positions are in floating losses: BTC floating loss of 12.06 million, ETH floating loss of 4.76 million, SOL floating loss of 5.95 million, totaling a floating loss of 22.78 million.
📊 Position details
✅ $BTC short 2,637 coins, valued at 210 million, 5x leverage, average entry price 76,327
✅ $ETH short 106,400 coins, valued at 250 million, 5x leverage, average entry price 2,322
✅ $SOL short 720,000 coins, valued at 73.87 million, 7x leverage, average entry price 94.3
Total nominal position sums to 530 million USD, definitely a top-tier short.
An interesting point is that his liquidation price is very far away:
Another key point is that this position continuously earns funding fees, totaling 11 million (BTC 3.05 million + ETH 4.18 million + SOL 3.79 million). Even with a current floating loss of 22 million, relying on funding fees, the floating loss can be recovered in about two weeks.
💡 My view: This is a large capital long-term trend bet, completely different logic from our short-term trading. They have ample safety cushions plus funding fees as a backstop. Ordinary people blindly following short positions can easily not withstand the intermediate volatility. Whether the big player’s plan can be realized mainly depends on the FOMC results.