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$CORE CORE's recent on-paper burn is just a self-deception.
The 69 million CORE tokens that escaped during the exploit incident have long been moved to external wallets. The official team has no authority to freeze them, nor do they have a recovery plan.
The cost basis for these tokens is basically zero, and they are just hanging over everyone's heads.
Pumping the price only provides liquidity for these tens of millions of free tokens. As soon as there's a slight rebound, they will definitely be dumped immediately to cash out, making it impossible to hold.
#CORE
$CORE
👇The top 10 of the $LIGHT small rise during the National Day I remember jumped from 79% to 85%Can't sleep, so I scrolled through a set of on-chain data posted by Santiment. The 365-day MVRV of $DOGE has dropped to 0.74.
This number isn't new to me, but every time I see it, my heart sinks a bit. What does 0.74 mean? It means that over the entire past year, no matter which day someone bought DOGE, on average, their position is underwater by about 26%. A whole year, 365 days, almost everyone has been holding their breath underwater. No wonder no one is talking in the group, no wonder even the KOLs shouting buy signals have gone quiet. This kind of pervasive underwater pressure can't be relieved by just shouting a few slogans.
But as I turned over in bed, I thought a bit more. Santiment gave a very straightforward logic: when MVRV is high, it means profit-taking could come crashing down at any time; when MVRV is suppressed to such a low level, it often indicates that selling pressure is nearing exhaustion. Look next door, Bitcoin and Ethereum's 365-day MVRV are between 0.97 and 1.04, already back near the break-even line. Only Dogecoin is still lying in this "deep water" at 0.74.
Those who needed to cut losses have basically done so over the past year. Those still holding DOGE now are either old holders with costs so low they don't even check, or people like me who picked up chips around 0.08 and are prepared to endure the wait. The chips have quietly shifted from fragile hands to strong hands. The challenge now is turning that capital into sustainable usage instead of relying on the next memecoin wave. Tokenized equities and other RWAs could become a stronger foundation, especially given Robinhood's existing retail distribution and financial infrastructure. With its October 27 earnings call approaching, I'm watching for signs that Robinhood can convert its massive user base into real onchain demand.$BTC What If Nasdaq's Next Drop Hits Bitcoin
Harder?
A sharp Nasdaq sell-off could pressure Bitcoin, but the real test is whether crypto demand can absorb broader market weakness.
Historical data cited in the analysis shows
B $BTC
fell at least 1.9% over the next 7 days in 76% of cases following Nasdaq drops of 2.5% or more since 2021.
That signals risk, not certainty. If Nasdaq sells off again, what matters more for * $BTC macro pressure or crypto demand?$BTC #BTCETFFlowSwings $ETH $BTC $SOL After tonight's round of rebound, having swept through the order book, I have absolutely no intention to chase longs. It's not a subjective unwillingness to go long, but the volume reveals the true market situation, making it hard to believe this is a reversal trend.
$BTC current price is 80722, the daily MACD maintains a death cross pattern, and the market continues to be pressured below the MA7 and MA25 moving averages. Most importantly, the volume of this rebound is only 0.37 times the 7-day average volume. Simply put, even though there are calls online everywhere that the market is about to take off, the market has no incremental funds entering to lift it.
Market sentiment is also very divided: the Fear and Greed Index has reached a three-month high of 46, retail investors are beginning to develop FOMO chasing the rally; but smart money at the key level of 78000 shows shorts accounting for 61.8%. Institutions are taking advantage of the brief stabilization optimism among retail investors to cash out and exit, this operation is not unfamiliar.
The trend of $ETH requires even more caution, current price 2369, a cumulative decline of over 11% in 20 days, the super trend remains downward. Looking at the 24-hour liquidation data: ETH long liquidations total $74.09 million, shorts only $9.02 million, longs have already undergone a large-scale washout. Tonight's slight rebound looks more like a brief respite for trapped longs rather than new funds entering to support.
Coinglass liquidation data clearly shows: above 2425 there is $1.141 billion in short liquidity, below 2199 there is $612 million in long liquidation points. Current price 2369 still has room before reaching the upper liquidation zone. $BMT was ignited today by Korean funds: Upbit announced at 10:35 AM Beijing time the launch of the KRW trading pair, opening at 11 AM. Before the announcement, Binance spot was around 0.0226; within that hour at 11 AM, it surged directly to 0.0514, a peak increase of 128%.
In the two hours after the announcement, Binance's hourly trading volume was 8.51 million and 10.79 million USD respectively, while normally it’s only two to three hundred thousand per hour.
Upbit's KRW market opened at 57.7 KRW, and 11 minutes later surged to 98.1 KRW, about 49% higher than Binance at that time; by the afternoon, this premium was basically erased.
Another context is that Bubblemaps posted a few days ago exposing trader Kimchi’s wallet trading $TRUMP, revealing he actually only made about 6 million USD instead of the rumored 40 million, so the hype was already there.
Currently, Binance is around 0.0392, up 62% in 24h, but has retraced 24% from the high, with the afternoon low reaching 0.0329.
My view is that the exchange-driven rally comes fast and goes fast; if the 0.033 level breaks, I don’t think those holding the bags can withstand it. Borrowing money to buy chips with an interest rate of 8%—9%, this time Musk is entering the debt collection room, not the lecture hall. SPCX talks about $40 billion financing, buying Nvidia chips through SPV to support AI, with Goldman Sachs, Apollo, and Pimco only recognizing the yield: subordinated debt at 8%—9%, AI still wants to renegotiate after a shake. What does $40 billion mean? At 8.5%, that's 3.4 billion in interest per year, with tranching calculated separately, which is quite scary. I acknowledge Musk's influence: the space AI story is worth an astonishing valuation, and the technology and business are online, but when will it break even? The off-balance-sheet move—debt not on the books, only maintaining rating, the alarm keeps ringing in the hallway. He still has to accept 8%—9%, how can AI capital expenditure be blindly optimistic? I'm bearish on SPCX: he's selling a story for ten years from now, but bondholders want interest paid on time every year.Before the internet bubble burst in 2000, there were multiple instances:
The Nasdaq 100 was rising, but the S&P was falling. These occurred in August-September 1999 and February 2000.
It was likely that the leading internet tech stocks were draining liquidity from the US stock market.
The most recent similar phenomenon happened in December 2024, and indeed the US stock market experienced a correction from February to May 2025. Although this might be a coincidence, as it was when Trump was imposing tariffs.
However, from 2025 to now, such a monthly pattern has not appeared. The NDX and SPX monthly charts are highly synchronized.
Instead, in July 2026, the Nasdaq 100 was correcting while the S&P was rising.
Brother Feng has analyzed more than once that the market is deliberately avoiding a replay of past history.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ AI storage demand continues to grow, and SK Hynix's upcoming Q3 earnings report is truly worth watching not just for revenue growth, but for whether high-bandwidth memory can continue to improve the profit structure.
The value of HBM lies in its technological barriers and product premium. But as competitors accelerate their catch-up, the market needs to reassess: how sustainable is the current high profit margin?
I believe there are three key points to observe in the earnings report: first, the contribution of the HBM product mix to overall gross margin; second, the customer certification, mass production progress, and order visibility of HBM4; third, whether the traditional DRAM and NAND businesses can simultaneously improve profitability.
It is especially important to distinguish two concepts: HBM4's technological leadership does not equal immediate profit growth in the quarter. There is a time lag from product certification to scaled delivery, and capacity expansion also comes with capital expenditure and yield pressure.
Therefore, even if the earnings report performs strongly, if management's guidance on subsequent profit margins or order growth falls short of expectations, the stock price may still face pressure.
The real question this earnings report must answer is: can SK Hynix's competitive advantage translate into sustainable profitability?
Are you more optimistic about the long-term premium brought by HBM4, or worried about profit margin declines after industry capacity expansion? #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 。What is the impact on the macroeconomy?
The renewed risk to Middle East crude oil supply and the sustained rise in oil prices are exerting triple pressure on the macroeconomy through the "inflation—interest rates—growth" chain.
First, imported inflationary pressure has significantly rebounded. High oil prices directly push up refined oil and transportation costs, gradually permeating into core inflation. The US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, with energy prices up 20.4% year-on-year; gasoline alone contributed more than half of the monthly CPI increase. The OECD expects that inflation in G20 economies in 2026 will be 1.2 percentage points higher than previously forecast due to the energy shock.
Second, central banks' easing space has been greatly compressed. The inflation rebound disrupted the pace of rate cuts, the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations have reemerged, long-term government bond yields have risen accordingly, and global financing costs remain high. This is especially unfavorable for highly indebted economies and emerging markets reliant on external financing.
Finally, growth momentum is being suppressed. Energy costs erode corporate profits and residents' real incomes. Both the World Bank and the United Nations have downgraded their global growth forecasts for 2026. Warning: if the Strait of Hormuz disruption continues, the risk of stagflation will significantly increase.先把结论放前面：今年 4 月到 10 月，我一个账户的合约单一共 165 笔，全部平仓，总盈亏 -219.85 USDT，胜率 32.7%，盈利因子 0.74。没有一笔是“差一点就赚了”，账本上每个数字都是真金白银换的。 拆开看，这本账教会我三件事： 一、胜率低不可怕，没有盈利因子才可怕。 32.7% 的胜率意味着三笔里只赢一笔多一点。胜率低还能活，前提是赢的时候赚得比亏的时候多。我的盈利因子只有 0.74——每赚 1 块钱，背后先亏掉 1.35 块。这说明我的问题不在方向，在结构：止盈太手软，止损太心软，赢的单子拿不住，亏的单子舍不得砍。 二、亏损不是均匀分布的，是扎堆来的。 回头翻记录，亏得最狠的阶段，都是同一个模式：刚止损完不服气，马上反手再进；方向走反了不认，加仓摊平。一笔计划内的亏损最多伤皮毛，一串情绪化的连亏才伤筋动骨。165 笔里真正让我疼的，其实就那么十几笔连环单。 三、活下来靠的不是技术，是笔数还不够大就停了手。 这 165 笔之后我给自己换了打法：每一笔先写好入场、止损、止盈再下单；模拟盘先跑样本，胜率和盈利因子没验证过关，不放大仓位。现在在星球这边连载的，就是这套The “face” and “substance” of BTC at $80,000
BTC is currently around $80,800, down about 1% in 24 hours. The market looks barely holding but hasn’t broken down. The $80,000 level is being heavily contested by both bulls and bears today.
Interestingly, there are two completely different narratives beneath the surface. On-chain data shows whales accumulating, with market maker Wintermute moving nearly $770 million worth of BTC to new wallets, indicating big money is using the pullback to stockpile. On the other hand, ETF funds are withdrawing, institutional average cost is stuck near 84,000, and overall they are at a floating loss, with many trying to break even every time the price rebounds to that level.
My personal view: 80k feels more like a “fig leaf,” holding the face but lacking solid substance. The buying is defensive, and selling pressure above 81,000 quickly weakens it. The real risk isn’t at 80k itself but with the Federal Reserve — likely no move in October, but December rate hike expectations still linger, and oil prices are adding fuel to geopolitical tensions. In the short term, I won’t chase rebounds; the focus is on whether 80,000 can be reclaimed with volume. If it just barely holds, there’s room below at 79,000 or even 78,000. Whale accumulation signals a long-term play, not a short-term bottom signal. $BTC $ETH $XAUT The TVL frenzy of public blockchains: who is actually paying the token holders?
In the public blockchain sector, many people tend to equate "ecosystem activity" with "token value." But beneath the surface data, no matter how lively the chain is, if there is no rigid reward mechanism, token holders still won't get a share.
Take these three popular projects as examples:
$SOL's on-chain activity is indisputable; its DEX trading volume is even several times that of Ethereum, and the ETF channel has been opened. But its value capture mainly relies on gas fee burning and staking demand, with a very small daily burn amount (about 650 tokens) and inflation dilution. When you buy it, you are buying the ecosystem's beta, not protocol profit dividends.
$NEAR has strong AI and chain abstraction narratives, and the Intents protocol has brought billions of real cross-chain transactions. But strictly speaking, the protocol's net retained income is about 2 million USD, with an annual inflation of 2.5%. The monthly new issuance is still several times the buyback amount, so a deflationary closed loop has not yet formed.
$INJ takes a different path; its ecosystem scale is smaller than the first two, but the community buyback and burn mechanism is running smoothly, rigidly using profits to buy tokens. The downside is that the protocol's annual revenue is too small in absolute terms, and the current burn volume can only be considered as "good attitude," not yet forming an overwhelming buy pressure.
Conclusion:
When evaluating public blockchains, don't just look at the on-paper TVL. SOL* relies on large capital to price ecosystem premiums, NEAR bets on technology implementation and a deflationary turning point, and INJ wins with direct mechanisms. There is no absolute good or bad, only which logic you are more willing to pay for. $SNDK SanDisk dropped from 1908 to 1238, a 35% decline, and I still see people shouting to buy the dip—really fearless.
If you check SanDisk's financial report, last quarter's revenue was 8.97 billion, a 51% quarter-over-quarter increase, which looks impressive at first glance. But there's a detail: about two-thirds of that growth came from NAND price increases.
Damn, this is exactly what worries me the most. Anyone who's been through storage cycles knows how profitable manufacturers are when there's a shortage, and how painful it gets when prices reverse. The market is still valuing SanDisk based on profits from the peak boom period, which I find a bit risky.
Recently, the entire AI sector has started acting strange. Micron is falling along, and even SpaceX has to consider $40 billion in financing just to buy chips. Everyone is desperately pouring money into AI, but when will these investments actually pay off?
SanDisk is releasing its earnings on October 29. If the results are good but the stock price keeps falling, that will be even more interesting. After all, the market's expectations for it have been ridiculously high.
On the daily chart, the MA5 is at 1316, MA20 at 1458, and the stock price can't even touch the 5-day moving average. 1216 is the previous low, and I think it will test that again. Consider entering on a rebound between 1300–1325, with a stop loss at 1360. Watch 1216 first; if it breaks, look at 1150.
Of course, if the earnings report directly pushes the stock back above 1360, I'll exit. Anyway, when I look at SanDisk now, I get the feeling that the good days of storage price hikes aren't over yet, but the stock price is already preparing to exit early. #财报观察员：财报季回顾与展望 The current core anchor of the overall market remains the Federal Reserve's policy expectations. CME interest rate futures show a higher probability of maintaining rates unchanged in October. The market is waiting for the policy meeting to release further guidance. Fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar continue to suppress crypto assets, with overall funds leaning towards caution. Major coins currently lack the conditions to trigger a large-scale unilateral trend.
$BTC is currently oscillating around 80,900. Last night saw the largest large UTXO transfer in 2026, totaling over 230,000 BTC worth more than $21 billion. However, on-chain data shows that most of these chips were just internal address transfers among whales, with no significant inflow into exchanges, so this is not a concentrated dump signal but rather a large holder portfolio adjustment. Short-term support is at the 80,000 level, with resistance at 83,000. The current phase is a consolidation and bottoming process, awaiting directional choice.
$ETH is moving in tandem with BTC. Spot ETF inflows are weak, and a small ETH ETF has announced liquidation, reflecting increased divergence in Ethereum's sector. On the positive side, Fidelity and BlackRock continue to advance staking-based ETH ETP products, which is a long-term narrative but unlikely to drive an independent short-term rally. The current price is around 2,370, with 2,440 as short-term resistance. The market's height is highly dependent on overall market sentiment.
Overall, major coins are consolidating while waiting for macro developments. Structural opportunities are concentrated in privacy sector coins with clear event catalysts. Avoid blindly heavy positions betting on unilateral moves; prioritize waiting for volume confirmation at key resistance levels before following up.#WillFedPauseInOctober $ZEC perpetual 50x short position, opened at 1250.07, currently at 1161.15, floating profit +355.66%.
The idea is very simple: the top consolidates with extremely low volume, volatility is crushed to the floor, indicating the bullish momentum is exhausted. A single high-volume bearish candle smashed the price down from 1250.07, a typical breakdown signal, short rather than long. 50x leverage, stop loss at 1280. The trend goes straight down, giving no comfortable exit point, profits take off directly.
At this position, I plan to take half the position off the table first, move the stop loss of the remaining half up to 1180 to let profits run. If 1100 breaks down with volume, continue holding; if it doesn't break, close all positions. $IRYS $ORDER #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ 🔥#现货黄金跌破4000美元关口
This time, gold has shattered its reputation as the "king of safe havens."💸
On October 23, spot gold broke below $4000 intraday, hitting a low of 3986.49, the lowest since July. It has tumbled from a high of $5598 this year, with a maximum drawdown approaching 30%.
The most frustrating thing isn’t the drop itself, but the way it’s falling.
When the US stock AI sector collapsed, investors were forced to cover margin calls. Their first reaction wasn’t to buy gold as a safe haven, but to sell gold for cash. The chief of HSBC Precious Metals put it harshly: "Gold is an insurance policy, and this insurance policy is being cashed in." To translate: when your house is on fire, the first thing you do isn’t to renew the policy, but to cash it out to get emergency funds.
What’s even more abnormal is that the dollar is falling, and US Treasury yields are also falling—two indicators that should support gold prices are failing simultaneously. The market isn’t pricing in "gold is no good," it’s scrambling for liquidity—money is flowing into US Treasuries, and gold has become an ATM.
At the 4000 level, technical traders are watching 3970 and 3960/3940. But the real variable isn’t in the candlesticks, it’s in the Fed’s statements next week. As long as oil prices stay above 100, rate hike expectations will suffocate non-interest-bearing assets.
The pipe isn’t broken; the water is temporarily diverted to put out the fire. Once the fire is out, we’ll see how much water remains in the reservoir.🔧$XAU I glanced at the calendar; the US stock market is closed on the weekend, and the ETF hasn't moved a cent in or out these two days. Whether the weekend is stable depends on the people in the contracts. On Friday, the BTC spot ETF saw an outflow of $138 million, with IBIT alone accounting for $110 million. OKEx BTC perpetual positions decreased by about 1,000 contracts compared to last night, but the number of longs is still more than twice the shorts, the ratio remains the same as last night. At first, I thought the drop this morning would wash out some positions, but it turns out the positions decreased while the people stayed.
By this time tomorrow night, the OKEx BTC ratio of people is still above 2, and the funding rate is still positive, meaning these people are still crowded on the long side. If the ratio drops below 1.8, it means small accounts have exited, then I was wrong.
Last night I said if the position doesn't drop and it stays in the range tonight, then I was mistaken, but at 6 AM this morning it broke down, so that didn't trigger. Let's not talk about ETFs over the weekend; I'll check the ratio of people again tomorrow night.
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ The biggest surprise for me this week was still $PEPE
Bitcoin couldn't rise, ETH was also lackluster, but this frog jumped up on its own 😂
The previously watched high at 4752 was successfully broken through, and on Friday it even surged close to 5118, making it one of the few coins that truly showed strong momentum this week
But the weekend gave the market a lesson again, after the surge it continuously fell back, and the price has dropped back to around 4400😮💨
Looking at it this way, those who chased the rise during the week probably had a very polarized experience
I think there is a noteworthy point in PEPE's rise this time: when mainstream assets perform flatly, speculative funds are still willing to seek targets with high elasticity
However, based on price increase alone, it is still uncertain whether it is driven by continuous spot buying or short covering in the futures market
Next week I will focus on whether the pullback after the breakout can hold:
If it can't reclaim the previous breakout resistance level, then the quality of this surge needs to be reassessed
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC and $ETH have respectively once again reached around 80,000 and 2,300, approaching the previous phase's "bottom" range.
However, it is preferable to take light positions or exploratory long positions, or wait for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision before considering further action.
Considering going long because the support around 2,300 has been effective multiple times, and also betting more on the possibility that the Federal Reserve's rate decision may slow down, a rebound might be expected.
But it is worth noting whether the Middle East situation will escalate; if it does, the market may face further pressure.
Gold $XAU fell below 4,000 and then hovered around 4,000. Some institutions predict a minimum drop to 3,750. The previous low of 3,950 is a strong support level. Considering slightly increasing gold positions around 3,700, but be mindful of the risks!Core data analysis of BTC whale traders' positions in the crypto market shows that whales are also deeply stuck, with a total unrealized loss of 180 million USD!!!
BTC
Whale nominal long-short ratio is 28.19%, with 294 whales in the long camp and 564 whales in the short camp.
Long positions currently hold 696.39M USDT, with an average entry price of 87343.67, unrealized loss of 56.457 million USD, and a profit ratio of 36.05%;
Short positions currently hold 2.46B USDT, with an average entry price of 76612.94, unrealized loss of 127.79 million USD, and a profit ratio of 56.38%.
The current price is around 80793.70, stuck in the middle cost range of whale longs and shorts. Long position entry costs are relatively high, with many whale longs trapped; short position costs are relatively low, with more than half of shorts still profitable. However, as price fluctuates upward, short position unrealized losses continue to increase, causing a tug-of-war between longs and shorts.
The long profit ratio is only 36.05%, with a higher proportion of long losses. The current market battle is intense, and short-term is very likely to maintain range-bound oscillation. It is difficult to quickly break out into a one-sided large trend. Do not blindly chase longs or shorts; wait for the price to effectively break through one side's cost range before deciding the direction.
For market reference only, not constituting any trading advice #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复 #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ $BTC $ETH $IRYS The SEC's tokenization exemption plan raises a key question: what exactly qualifies as a "public and permissionless" blockchain?
Networks like Canton and Ethereum L2 are involved in the discussion. If different types of chains need to meet different criteria, securities tokenization is no longer just a technical choice but also involves regulatory qualifications, trading arrangements, and compliance costs.
On the other hand, more and more companies oppose their stocks being tokenized. Even if technically feasible, whether the issuer agrees, what rights token holders have, and how existing shareholder rights are handled could all impact product implementation.
This discussion has no clear answer yet, but it has already touched the core of securities tokenization: which blockchains can carry compliant securities in the future may depend not only on technical capabilities but also on how regulators define participation eligibility.One day in crypto is like ten years in the real world
#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
✅ Google Cloud 2026 Q2 82% growth & AI investment return summary
Data source: Alphabet Q2 2026 earnings report (as of June 30)
- Google Cloud revenue $24.768 billion, +82% year-over-year
- Cloud operating profit $8.81 billion, more than tripled year-over-year
- Operating margin from 20.7% last year to 35.6%
- Backlog (signed contracts pending revenue recognition) $514 billion, more than half expected to convert to revenue in the next 24 months.
Alphabet Q2 capital expenditure $44.9 billion, doubled year-over-year, full-year capex raised to $195–205 billion, with massive ongoing investments in data centers, TPU chips, and power infrastructure.
Short term: Google AI investment has entered the monetization phase, cloud business revenue, margin, and backlog all exceeding expectations, AI full-stack strategy has achieved very good commercial results;
Mid to long term: High capital investment continues, currently "profits earned are reinvested into the computing power arms race," whether high returns can be sustained depends on future AI demand resilience and cloud pricing competition.
$BTC $ETH $SOL SanDisk's drop this time is really quite severe, falling from 1908 to 1238, a 35% retracement, and after reading its financial report, I actually want to continue being bearish.
This company's performance is actually quite strong, with revenue growth of 175% in fiscal year 2026, and last quarter's revenue was 8.97 billion, a 51% quarter-over-quarter increase. But there's one number that has always bothered me: about two-thirds of last quarter's revenue growth came from price increases, and only one-third from volume.
I really don't dare to look at profits alone in the storage chip industry. When NAND prices rise, profits can multiply rapidly, but once supply and demand loosen, performance can reverse just as quickly.
Recently, news about technological progress from Chinese memory manufacturers hit the whole sector hard. Although ChangXin mainly makes DRAM, which is different from SanDisk's NAND, funds are clearly unwilling to differentiate so finely now.
What's more troublesome is the October 29 earnings report. SanDisk previously gave a gross margin guidance as high as 83%–85%, which is an exaggerated figure. The market is now worried about how many quarters this pace of profit-making can be sustained.
Mizuho gave a target price of 2050 just a few days ago, but the stock price still fell. Institutions may be bullish, but the market simply isn't buying it.
The daily MA5 is at 1316, MA20 at 1458, and MACD is still below zero. I'm not shorting for now; I'll wait to see if the rebound is resisted between 1300–1325 before considering it, with a stop loss at 1360, first watching 1216, and if broken, then 1150. Of course, if the earnings report continues to exceed expectations, the bears might get hammered. #AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复 $BTC fell below 81,000 USDT in the early morning, currently around 80,990, slightly down for the day. What’s more noteworthy is that this is the first time since August that it closed below the 50-day moving average, ending a 66-day streak above the line. The fear and greed index remains steady at 51, a neutral state—no panic, but no one dares to rush in either.
The on-chain situation isn’t peaceful either. An institution investing in both Aave and Worldcoin transferred $33.18 million worth of ETH, WLD, and AAVE into multiple CEXs an hour ago, with WLD plunging nearly 14% in a single day. Such moves in a choppy market are hard not to raise suspicions.
On the macro front, the 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5%, oil prices remain high, and risk assets are generally under pressure. Ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, bulls are unlikely to act recklessly. #中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 ETF is buying, but the market is selling off. The ones dying are those who least want to get off.
In the past 24 hours, $466 million liquidations occurred, with $319 million from long positions, and 179,000 people were directly taken off the table. BTC fell below 81,000, and $ETH long liquidations accounted for as much as 82.6%. When you check the ETF data—IBIT had a weekly inflow of $565 million, and the overall weekly net inflow was still $300 million. Then you look at the candlesticks, one after another pressing down.
This sense of tearing apart is what you really need to understand today.
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Who is dumping? Not the ETF, but the leverage itself.
Many people take “ETF inflows = market should rise” as common sense. But this week’s data strips that notion bare: IBIT alone took in $566 million, Fidelity’s FBTC had a net outflow of $116 million, ARKB outflowed $99.6 million, and Grayscale’s GBTC outflowed $51.8 million. The ETF “net inflow” is just a facade propped up by IBIT alone, while a group of institutions quietly withdraw underneath.
On the derivatives side, leveraged positions chasing longs at high levels have piled up too thickly. $BTC long liquidations accounted for 96.6%, $ETH longs 91.6%. This is not a “natural market decline,” it’s a targeted detonation. The main players never focus on the trickle of ETF inflows; they watch where the longs are stacked, where stop losses hang, then push down to let leverage kill itself. ETF buying is slow money; liquidation selling is instantaneous. Slow money can’t catch the fast blade.
External markets are also delivering blows. On October 22, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 6.72% in one day; Nvidia, AMD, and TSMC were all hammered. Hedge funds are reducing tech stock holdings at the fastest pace in at least a decade. AI chip stocks have had valuations slashed, and hot money is pulling out of risk assets faster than anyone. Crypto is not an isolated market; it’s the nerve at the extreme end of risk appetite. When tech stocks shudder, this side convulses immediately.
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The most dangerous move now is called “catching a flying knife.”
$BTC is tugging at the 80,000 level; large on-chain addresses are indeed supporting near 80,000, with no signs of panic selling. But “no panic” does not mean “the bottom is in.” The daily EMA is bearish, 81,800–82,000 is short-term resistance, 85,000 is strong resistance, and below that 79,500 and 76,500 are the next decent support levels. $ETH is weaker than the broader market; 2,350–2,380 is the defense line, breaking that means 2,300–2,250 next.
FOMC is on Wednesday. The market prices only about a 10% chance of a rate hike in October; a pause is almost consensus. But consensus itself doesn’t move markets; the Fed Chair’s press conference is the wildcard—if he subtly leaves the door open for a December hike, risk assets will have to squat down again. At this point, longs have just been bloodied, liquidity is thinnest, sentiment is most fragile, and a false breakout can sweep stop losses again.
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In real trading, one sentence: before FOMC, keep your hands still.
Watch one signal—that ETF inflows can shift from “IBIT monopoly” to “broad diffusion.” If next week IBIT still carries it alone and other funds continue outflows, then the tug-of-war at 80,000 isn’t over, and the bottoming process will last longer than most can endure.
Liquidation data has already written the answer on the face: this round is not killing “those who bet wrong,” but “those who are over-leveraged.”
Control your hands, wait for the wind to stop.
$BTC $ETH #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ #Mistral AI获三星与欧盟基金领投30亿欧融资
This article is only a personal market review and does not constitute any investment advice. Leverage is a knife; whichever side you hold, it will cut your hand.As of October 24, 2026, information from the core regional ambassador reveals: the number of independent validator nodes has dropped from 31 to 16. According to its consensus rules, if the number of validators falls to 15 or fewer, the network faces a "fatal risk" of consensus stagnation or even a complete halt in block production. The remaining validators are highly tied to the project team, seriously calling into question the network's decentralization. Nearly zero-cost 69 million "ghost chips" could flood the market at any time, potentially wiping out value overnight. Large-scale exchanges continue to delist, with the number of exchanges supporting CORE sharply reduced from 34 to only 13, and as many as 21 have already delisted it. After official nodes withdrew due to "unprofitability," the flagship product SatPay (BTC debit card) has been confirmed delayed with no clear launch date, meaning the narrative of buying back tokens through ecosystem revenue cannot be realized in the short term. Furthermore, the project team has yet to release a complete technical post-mortem report on the vulnerability, remaining evasive about key information such as the duration of the vulnerability and the list of involved nodes. This lack of transparency exacerbates the risk of the token's value dropping to zero.Tonight's rebound, I glanced at the market depth and didn't even have the desire to chase. It's not that I don't want to go long, but the volume looks terrible, it simply can't fool anyone.
$BTC is stuck at 80,722, the daily MACD death cross is still hanging, and the price is tightly suppressed by MA7 and MA25. What's even more annoying is—the rebound volume is only 0.37 times the 7-day average. What does 0.37 times mean? It means someone is shouting "taking off, taking off," but there's not even a single supporter underneath. Even more divided is the Fear & Greed Index hitting a three-month high of 46, retail investors are FOMOing, while smart money shorts account for 61.8% at the 78,000 resistance level. Institutions are treating retail's "ceasefire celebration" as an exit liquidity event; this trick is too familiar.
$ETH makes my back chill even more. At 2,369, down over 11% in 20 days, the super trend is firmly downward. But look at the liquidation data—over the past 24 hours, Ethereum longs were liquidated for $74.09 million, shorts only $9.02 million. The bulls have been ground down all the way, tonight's small rebound looks more like the last of the defeated catching their breath, not reinforcements arriving. Coinglass's liquidation map shows: above 2,425 there are $1.141 billion short liquidations stacked, below 2,199 there are $612 million long liquidations. The price is now stuck at 2,369, still some distance from the short graveyard above. If new funds were really entering, volume wouldn't shrink to this pathetic state; if shorts are covering, the rally near 2,400 should fizzle out. I bet on the latter.
$SOL at 101.6, RSI 26 oversold, but oversold is never a stop-fall signal. The LH/LL downtrend structure remains intact, 84.44 is the last cover for this wave, breaking it means a new low. Oversold + capital outflow + MACD bearish expansion, triple kill.
The news side needs another hit. SK Hynix's earnings set a record but missed expectations, US stocks after-hours dropped 9% at one point, Korean semiconductor stocks followed suit, global tech risk assets collectively shuddered. If the AI narrative-driven risk appetite starts to contract from here, high Beta crypto assets won't be spared. Don't just focus on the candlesticks, the macro water level above is dropping.
So tonight I'm bearish, but not blindly so. I'm watching if 2,400-2,425 can hold with volume. If it can't hold, the end of short covering is the start of a second dip. If $BTC 80,000 doesn't turn into support within 12 hours, the target of that "magic candle" below is no joke.
Don't mistake a rebound for a reversal. Volume doesn't lie, liquidation data doesn't lie, institutional shorts definitely don't lie.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #加密财库分化：买币还是回购？ #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ ETH: Fundamentals have progressed, but the price hasn't cooperated
$ETH has been acting quite awkward this week
It briefly touched 2527 midweek, but by the weekend it fell back to around 2360, going in circles with basically no net gain
However, the news has been quite lively:
On Monday, JPMorgan announced the expansion of JPM Coin to the Ethereum mainnet, offering on-chain USD deposit settlements for institutional clients, as traditional finance continues to move closer to public blockchains;
Then on Thursday, the Ethereum Foundation announced a delay in the Glamsterdam upgrade on the Hoodi testnet due to some gas fee adjustments that might affect existing smart contracts
There’s also some not-so-good news: ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $220 million this week...
So, how to put it, there is indeed progress on the application side, but the capital side hasn’t given equivalent support yet; next week I’ll first watch if 2500 can be reclaimed—if it can’t hold this area, don’t get your hopes too high for further gains 😇
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 BTC outflow of $331 million, slight inflows for ETH and SOL. This is not simply "abandoning the big to catch the small," but a position shift on the derivatives ledger.
Data shows BTC outflow of about 331 million (heaviest selling pressure), ETH net inflow of 9.42 million (spot shows resilience), SOL net inflow of 520,000 (tentative position building).
Core judgment: This round of BTC outflow looks more like concentrated deleveraging by high-leverage longs rather than a retreat of long-term funds. If selling pressure comes only from contract-side deleveraging, the drop is sharp but recovery is also quick; if spot also suffers outflows simultaneously, that is the real risk. Currently, ETH serves as a capital safe haven, while SOL is a minor probe.
The market is currently trading "structural resilience" rather than a full risk-off.
Bullish path: After BTC deleveraging completes, mainstream capital returns with ETH leading the rally;
Bearish risk: BTC spot outflows expand, and ETH's strength is only a delayed prelude to a catch-up drop.
Summary: Don't be misled by single-day flows; focus on whether "spot follows the outflow" and whether "contract positions continue to shrink." Capital outflow is superficial; leverage structure is the essence.🔥 Public blockchains are getting hotter, but why don't token holders necessarily make money?
Recently, looking at the ecosystems of ETH, SOL, and OKB, I increasingly feel that the market is re-examining one thing: even if a public blockchain develops well, what exactly does that have to do with token holders?
📊 A chain's transaction volume can grow, active addresses can increase, and ecosystem projects can continuously expand, but these numbers don't necessarily directly bring token buying pressure.
The reason is not complicated.
User transaction fees might be very low, and the revenue earned by applications may not necessarily flow back to the native token. Some trading activities might also rely on reward subsidies, and once the subsidies end, the funds will leave.
This is why when I look at X Layer now, I not only focus on new projects and activities but also pay more attention to the actual usage demand for OKB.
💰 The same logic applies to ETH and SOL, only their fee structures, staking, and value capture mechanisms differ.
In the next round of public blockchain competition, what I value more is not who announces how many partnerships, but who can turn real usage into sustained token demand.
Ecosystem prosperity is a good thing, but it cannot be directly equated with token price increases.
$ETH $SOL $OKB
#PublicChainCompetition #ETH #SOL #OKB #XLayerIRYS: $IRYS intraday volatility fully stretched, rapid capital turnover signal interpretation
Current price $0.0723, 24-hour increase +159.32%, 24-hour trading volume approximately $108 million, meeting the 24h trading volume threshold of over ten million.
Contract open interest steadily rising, long-short ratio 1.61, bulls dominant but no extreme skew. Funding rate +0.012%, slightly positive, indicating short-term leveraged longs entering, heat not yet in the crazy premium zone.
24-hour liquidations total $1.28 million, with short liquidations accounting for 72%, the rally mainly squeezing shorts, no concentrated long liquidations so far.
Market rhythm: rapid surge in early session followed by consolidation and digestion, persistent high-level selling pressure. 7-day overall increase close to 170%, short-term gains have already overextended some expectations.
Its core narrative revolves around decentralized storage bandwidth settlement; this round is a capital clustering driven by news catalysts. Such assets typically exhibit rapid volume bursts and quick realization, with very strong capital inflow and outflow rhythms.
From the data perspective: clear long advantage, shorts continuously liquidated, but funding rate is low, incremental leveraged capital follow-up is limited. High-volume consolidation at highs means divergence has widened, not suitable for chasing gains.
Risk points are straightforward: huge short-term gains, once support weakens, pullback could be severe; prioritize waiting for a secondary signal after volume contraction, avoid heavy positions directly. SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings
Many people previously said that the mass production of HBM4 meant the good news was over, but in the second quarter, SK Hynix only delivered a small amount of product, achieving quarterly profits exceeding 60 trillion KRW with a profit margin of 76%. How can this prove that the good news is over? Obviously, the new profit cycle is just beginning. Now in the third quarter, HBM4 production is officially accelerating, regular DRAM contract prices are still rising, both parties' financial performance is improving, and the shipment fluctuations of the previously smaller new Nvidia graphics cards are also decreasing. #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ Google Q3 Earnings Preview: AI is strong, but ultimately it depends on whether it can make money
This time analyzing Google's earnings, the focus is not on how hot AI is, but whether these investments can truly convert into revenue and profit.
Last quarter, Alphabet's revenue was $119.8 billion, up 24% year-over-year; Google Cloud revenue was about $24.8 billion, up 82%; search ads grew 17%, YouTube ads grew 13%.
I am overall optimistic about this quarter, mainly bullish on three aspects:
First, Google Cloud. Deploying AI requires computing power, models, and data platforms. Google's Gemini, TPU, and cloud services have the opportunity to form synergy, and cloud business may continue to be a growth engine.
Second, search ads. AI search won't necessarily destroy traditional search. If it can increase user queries and improve ad efficiency, it might actually create new commercial value. But more AI usage by users does not necessarily mean ad revenue will grow in sync; this remains to be verified.
Third, YouTube ads and subscription business can support overall revenue.
However, data centers, chips, electricity, and depreciation all require heavy investment. Even if revenue grows, if profit margins and cash flow are under pressure, it cannot be considered a perfect earnings report.
My judgment: Google has a chance to exceed expectations this quarter; the biggest highlight is Cloud, and the biggest test is whether AI investments can convert into profit.$ENA is really weak today 😮💨
It surged to 0.2134 in the early morning, now hovering around 0.189, down more than 11% from the high, nearly 9% down intraday, ranking among the top decliners in major coins.
At 3 PM, the high-volume bearish candle smashed through the 0.1935 level, and since then it has been grinding within the small box of 0.1887-0.191, with very weak rebounds. Open interest dropped from about 16.2 million USD at 4 AM to 14.7 million, longs are retreating, but the funding rate is still positive at 0.01%, indicating some are still holding long.
My plan: no short chasing, wait for a rebound.
Direction: short
Entry: 0.1932-0.1945 (the platform smashed through this afternoon, now resistance)
Stop loss: 0.1975 (above the 2 PM rebound high)
Target 1: 0.1850, Target 2: 0.1810
If it doesn’t rebound and breaks below 0.1885 directly, I won’t chase, better to miss out; if it rallies back above 0.1975 with volume, it means my judgment was wrong, I’ll cut losses and exit, no stubborn holding.
BTC is still hovering around 80,700, altcoins are weak accordingly. What do you think about ENA here—is it a shakeout or not done falling yet?
Just my personal view, not investment advice, DYOR
#ENA #ContractStrategy #AltcoinsBefore next Wednesday, 92.8% of people think this exam is settled
FOMC is scheduled for the 27th and 28th, and the market's bet on a pause in rate hikes once reached 92.8%, almost unanimously. But looking at the latest data, I feel a bit uneasy; the October PMI is still strong, and the probability of a pause has started to decline.
This is the most dangerous spot. The pause itself has long been priced in. If it really pauses, everyone will just applaud and be done with it. But if the statement includes a few hawkish remarks, 92.8% of people will try to rush through the same door simultaneously.
Looking at the market, funds have already signaled in advance. Bitcoin slid quietly over the weekend to 80,600, with a low of 80,458—80,000 is right in sight. Ethereum is at 2,364, SOL dropped to 101, and ZEC shrank from 1,368 to 1,154. This isn’t panic; big money just doesn’t want to bet before the exam.
Next week’s tests are still piling up: MSTR’s earnings report will show if it’s still buying crypto; Hynix’s earnings will test if HBM4 can hold the storage sector; French government bonds are still hanging at a 24-year high. Any one of these flunking is enough to shake the market.
My strategy is not to add positions before the exam. Whether 80,000 holds or not, let the market decide. I’ll act once the answer comes out. Being late by a day isn’t shameful; getting stuck halfway up the mountain is.
What do you think? Will this FOMC land safely or will there be a hawkish surprise?
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $BTC $ETH $SOL $ORDER perpetual 20x short position, opened at 0.07718, currently 0.0719, unrealized profit +136.82%.
The logic is very simple: repeatedly testing resistance near 0.07718 without breaking through, the upper shadows are getting longer, and buying pressure is clearly weakening. Once volume increases and it breaks below short-term support, confirm on the right side, then enter short. 20x leverage, stop loss at 0.08. This drop was extremely smooth, giving no chance for a rebound, profits took off immediately.
Now moving the stop loss to 0.075 to lock in profits. If it breaks below 0.065 with volume, can consider holding a bit longer. $IRYS $SNDK #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Extreme reversal captures profits! $IRYS short position grabs 229% profit!
Review of 20:54 data: opened at 0.08156 to mark price 0.06287. The short logic is based on IRYS being driven by AI data chain narrative, with a previously low circulating market cap experiencing a large surge, followed by a short squeeze rally that completely exhausted momentum, a buying gap triggering a high-level crash, and a timely short position precisely capturing the main downtrend wave.
Recent market: On October 24, IRYS surged then fell sharply, rising over 280% before crashing, with long positions in the contract market heavily swept out, causing extreme market fragmentation.
Next focus on 0.06 support. If volume breaks below, holding is advised; if it stabilizes and rebounds, partial profit-taking is recommended. Contract volatility is very high, strictly control position size and set stop losses.
$BTC $ORDER
#AI需求支撑存储市场，芯片股行情反复 Mainstream coins under $ETH liquidation squeeze: Which side will break short-term first?
BTC, ETH, and SOL are currently squeezed between two liquidation zones above and below, with prices closer to the lower long liquidation line. A slight short-term pullback could trigger concentrated liquidations.
Looking below, BTC's largest long liquidation is at 79786.1U, with a liquidation volume of 36.0328 million U, only -0.91% from the current price; ETH at 2352.1U, liquidation volume 17.3226 million U, -0.48% away; SOL at 101.02U, liquidation volume 3.7034 million U, -0.39% away. Among the three, ETH and SOL's lower liquidation zones are especially close to the current price, leaving very little room for pullback.
Above is the short pressure zone. BTC's largest short liquidation is at 82273.98U, liquidation volume 42.3178 million U, +2.18% from current price; ETH at 2400.35U, liquidation volume 17.6441 million U, +1.56% away; SOL at 103.09U, liquidation volume 3.3562 million U, +1.64% away. The short liquidation zones are a bit farther, but once broken, stop-loss orders may accelerate the release.
Overall, the market is in a "close below, distant above" liquidation structure: downward moves are more likely to trigger long liquidations first, while upward moves require stronger momentum to reach dense short zones. In the short term, a break below the lower liquidation levels could cause a quick spike down; holding steady and pushing above the upper liquidation levels could lead to a short squeeze rally. Currently, it is more suitable to focus on reactions after key level breakouts. $BTC $BTC In the past 12 weeks, the 12 days with the largest amplitude did not include a single weekend day.
OKX spot data (8/1–10/23, by UTC day):
Saturday average amplitude 1.07%, Friday 3.89%
Weekend trading volume is less than 40% of weekdays
Staying up late watching the market on weekends mostly means watching a flat line. Real big fluctuations almost always wait until the US stock market and ETFs open.
What beginners should most guard against on weekends is not sharp rises or falls, but the urge to place random orders out of boredom: with such thin volume, a small bullish candle looks like a breakout, but this kind of low-volume "breakout" is the least able to withstand volume confirmation on Monday.
Weekend market trends can be observed, but placing orders should be left to the volume confirmation on Monday.
Not investment advice | Data: OKX BTC-USDT spot daily #BTC现货ETF连续流出 #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ 谷歌Q3财报前瞻：为什么我继续押注GAAP EPS超预期？$GOOGL 10月28日美股盘后，$GOOG 将公布2026年第三季度财报。这次我在OKX星球的Outcomes预测中，依然选择了GAAP EPS超预期的Yes。 目前华尔街对谷歌Q3的EPS预期大约在3美元附近，而去年同期为2.87美元。这个预期并不低，但从上一季度的经营数据来看，谷歌的盈利增长还有继续超出预期的可能。 第一，搜索广告业务没有被AI削弱，反而还在增长。 此前市场一直担心ChatGPT等AI产品会分流谷歌搜索用户，进而影响广告收入。但至少到Q2为止，这种担忧还没有体现在财报上。 Q2谷歌搜索及其他业务收入达到632.7亿美元，同比增长17%，YouTube广告收入同比增长13%。 搜索业务最大的优势在于利润率高，而且商业模式已经非常成熟。只要搜索量、广告点击和广告定价没有明显恶化，这部分业务就能持续贡献大量经营利润。 Gemini、AI Overviews等产品也在逐步融入谷歌原有的搜索生态。AI确实增加了推理成本，但同时也有机会带来更多搜索需求和广告展示机会。 这如果周六的平静只是假象，那么下周的利率决议就会把仓位管理变成一场情绪考试。 你现在手里那几个仓位，是真的有逻辑，还是只是舍不得空仓？🌙 BTC 挂在 82300 附近，刚好卡在多空都不太舒服的平衡区。决议前猜方向，性价比其实很低，我更在意的是周末缩量里谁在悄悄减仓。周六不折腾仓位，留足现金等周二，是我今天最想执行的纪律；已经有仓位的，少盯几次报价，反而能省下不少无谓的手续费和情绪消耗。这里偏多的路径是决议落地后不确定性释放、风险偏好回补；风险则是量能继续萎缩，平衡区往下破，山寨跟跌会很快。 ENA 现价 0.1927，很多人把 USDe 和 USDT 混为一谈，这其实是认知差。前者靠抵押资产组合加上合约对冲赚价差再分给持有者，不是现金储备型稳定币。买 ENA 本质是在买这套收益引擎的弹性，不是单纯避险，所以它涨得动也跌得动，仓位别按稳定币的心态去拿。 HYPE 80 这个位置，看的是链上订单簿的真实撮合体验。价值来自平台手续费分成，链上交易越热，代币越有支撑；反过来说，热度一降，估值就会先于数据回落，这是我没敢重仓的原因。 SOL 104，生态热点不在 DeFi，而在 meme 和小#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 1. Core positives (reasons supporting the 73% probability)
- DRAM and NAND contract prices continue to rise in Q3, HBM (High Bandwidth Memory, AI core) orders are full, cloud providers have locked in long-term contracts, the proportion of high value-added products continues to increase, and profit margins keep rising.
- Latest forecasts from institutions like Citibank: Q3 operating profit is expected to reach 81.3 trillion KRW, about 8% higher than the market consensus, which is a relatively clear upward revision.
- Production capacity is prioritized for AI server storage, with reduced share for consumer mobile phones and PC storage, resulting in a very good overall profit structure.Short-cycle up-and-down markets have become the decisive factor in the competition for leadership in prediction markets.
Kalshi's momentum far surpasses Polymarket, mainly because the BTC 15min and its Combo markets contribute the majority of the trading volume; the BTC 15min market is even subtly about to surpass the non-combo sports market.
Polymarket's growth is not as continuous as Kalshi's, partly because its short-cycle 5min and 15min markets are entangled in competition with Predict Fun.
Predict Fun, leveraging lower fees and continuously improving liquidity, has caught up with Polymarket in trading volume, number of trading users, and number of trades in the 5min market.Brothers, next week is the FOMC, and the market now almost unanimously expects a pause (probability over 90%). But don’t get too happy too soon; "pause" does not mean "giving out candy." There are three variables to watch closely:
First, oil prices. Brent crude is still holding above 110. Any slight stir in the Middle East keeps inflation sticky. The Fed can hold steady, but it can’t pretend inflation is already solved.
Second, Wash’s speech. The market’s expectation for a December rate hike has already reached 67%. If he leans hawkish at the press conference, US Treasury yields will spike, and the crypto market will get hit again. If he leans dovish, the 80,000 level might be a short-term iron bottom.
Third, hawkish dissenting votes. Watch people like Harker closely. If the decision includes dissenting votes supporting a rate hike, that’s an early signal for a December hike.
A couple of words: BTC is currently struggling around 86,000, with 82,500 as the short-term lifeline—if it breaks, look for 70,000; on the upside, 87,000 is a strong ceiling. The current strategy is: don’t chase shorts, don’t blindly bottom-fish, wait for the news to settle and see how the main players shake out the market.
Brothers, do you think after the news drops BTC will take off or get smashed first? Let’s chat in the comments👇
$BTC $ETH $IRYS
#OctoberFOMCApproaching What variables remain for the Fed’s pause on rate hikes? I expect to be very busy next week, so let's talk about some miscellaneous things this week.
First, the altcoin market has recently seen many speculative coins. From what I've observed, they are all pure Ponzi schemes strongly controlled by the manipulators, with price movements almost entirely controlled. In my experience, if the manipulators want to go against you, you are almost guaranteed to fail. However, the price trends are relatively predictable. I won't mention specific coins to avoid riding traffic here. My personal advice is to avoid playing with them; after the pump-and-dump, short squeeze arbitrage, and chasing the long positions, almost everyone gets wiped out.
Next is the $BTC Bitcoin trend. It has reached the 80,000 level again. In the short term, there is a chance it will hold here. According to a rather traditional structural analysis method, the current bullish structure has not been broken yet, so you can try entering the market again. The risk-reward ratio is good (if the purple line breaks, I don't recommend entering). The short-term signal is also shown in Figure 1, indicating an entry opportunity.
For the mid-term elections, we can be sure there will be many fake news and market manipulations. I'm not very confident about the trend. (Don't believe any definitive statements; both bulls and bears have prepared corresponding news and will release whatever they want.)
The US stock market $SPY, semiconductors, storage, and AI sectors are performing very poorly. You can clearly see a double top pattern (see Figures 2 and 3). Don't try to bottom-fish here; it's a classic trap to cut retail investors. Wait for at least a period of bullish candles before considering entry... (Someone in the group discussed this a week ago as a warning; now I'm reminding again, although it's a bit late).$BTC At this time tonight, the most worth watching is not the candlestick chart, but the 10% in interest rate futures.
The market only gives a 10% probability of a Fed rate hike next week. But the probability of a cumulative 25 basis points increase in December is 75% or higher. These conflicting numbers make traders not even believe themselves.
I was watching 80100 all morning, and the trading volume was less than 80% of usual. The price did drop, but no one really dumped. Now sitting on the couch watching the market, the price is touching around 80,600, and the volume is still half-dead, confirming what I said this morning — this kind of drop means no one is really selling, it's just that no one is buying.
What's interesting is the macro side. Previously, everyone hoped for rate cuts and a bad economy, because only when the economy is bad can there be easing. Now the economy is strong, and the Fed has the confidence to keep tightening. A good economy doesn't mean crypto is good; experienced traders have suffered losses from this before. $BTC #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
Although the market predicts a pause in rate hikes in October (over 80%), the crypto space's liquidity turning point still requires caution regarding four major variables:
💡 Secondary inflation pressure: Oil prices and service sector inflation remain sticky, making macro liquidity unlikely to ease in the short term.
💡 Hawkish Pause: If Powell hints at a rate hike in December, risk assets will face a secondary repricing shock.
💡 US Treasury yield squeeze: High risk-free rates continue to divert capital from the crypto market, putting altcoin liquidity under pressure.
💡 US stock/crypto correlation: Repeated rate hike expectations can easily trigger short-term high-leverage liquidation cascades.
💡 Trading approach: Don’t just focus on "whether there will be a hike in October"; pay attention to the tone of the press conference. If hawkish signals are released, guard against liquidity pullbacks in BTC and high-beta altcoins. $ETH $BTC