Orbit Post Sitemap
Why can a logic become unreliable once everyone agrees on it!
When I first started trading, I loved looking for "certainty": policy support, institutional entry, sector explosion, preferably with consensus across the entire network.
When everyone is bullish, it seems to mean you are on the right side.
Later I realized that trading profits don’t come from having the correct view, but from prices not yet fully reflecting that view.
I once chased a popular sector.
The logic was indeed sound: user growth, funding background, ecosystem narrative were all strong, and research reports clearly explained the positives. But by the time I bought in, early investors had already made several multiples, funding rates were high, contract positions crowded, and every subsequent positive news only caused a brief price spike.
The project didn’t immediately deteriorate, but the price started to fall because the market lacked not reasons, but buyers who came later and were willing to pay higher prices.
Consensus itself is not the risk; overpricing is. To judge an opportunity, you can’t just ask if the logic is correct, but also: how many people already believe it, how much capital has entered, and if the positive news is realized, who will continue to buy?
The best opportunities often don’t have zero consensus, but facts are improving while prices still carry doubt. When everyone can fluently repeat the same story, trading may have shifted from discovering value to fighting over the last chair.
Remember: good logic does not equal good price; when the correct answer is known by all, what really needs to be calculated is how much buying power has yet to enter.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Regarding the Q3 earnings report: profits are very likely to continue to increase significantly quarter-on-quarter, mainly driven by price hikes in traditional storage. HBM4 is a bonus factor, not a decisive variable; if Q3 HBM4 shipments exceed expectations and yield rates are good, the earnings report will surpass expectations; conversely, if delivery pace is slow, performance can still be supported by the resilience of ordinary storage prices.SK Hynix Q3 Preview and HBM4 Observation
SK Hynix is expected to announce its Q3 results around October 28. The market consensus forecasts an operating profit of approximately 76.96 trillion KRW, with a profit margin of about 78.4%, potentially marking a record sixth consecutive quarter. This figure represents a 5.6% downward revision from the consensus three months ago.
The main reason is that HBM4 shipments have fallen short of expectations for two consecutive quarters. Due to adjustments in NVIDIA Rubin's schedule and extended mass production tuning time, some capacity has shifted to general DRAM. Bernstein estimates show Samsung's Q3 HBM revenue at about $8.7 billion (up 33% quarter-on-quarter), SK Hynix at about $7.6 billion (up 11% quarter-on-quarter), with Samsung surpassing SK Hynix in HBM revenue for the first time. SK Hynix's share has dropped from 58% in Q1 to 50% in Q2.
Despite pressure on market share, rising prices for general DRAM and NAND continue to support overall profitability. The Q3 earnings report will focus on verifying the actual contribution of HBM4 and management's outlook for 2027.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Funds have shifted
$ZEC Why is it crazy? A whale openly added nearly ten million dollars at an average price of 1252 dollars, with unrealized gains exceeding twenty million; expectations for Grayscale ZEC Trust converting to spot ETF are fermenting, daily trading volume tripled. Even more hardcore is the NU7 upgrade confirmed to activate on November 5 — block time compressed from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, 60% of fees per block removed from circulation until 2031, a blatant model to reduce selling pressure.
But don’t chase the highs. Coinbase data shows ZEC has given back 10% of its weekly gains, a typical profit-taking before positive news lands. NU7 is a November 5 event; entering now is just carrying the whale who built a position at 1200 dollars.
$ETH Why is it weak? It broke below 2400, 1-hour ADX at 33.90 bearish, 2412-dollar sell orders concentrated at 98.8%, top five bid-ask depth ratio only 0.33. Below, 2360 is a short-term cover.
But bears shouldn’t be too confident yet. The Glamsterdam upgrade activates on October 26 on the Hoodi testnet, gas limit increasing from 60 million to 200 million, a 3.3x increase. Ethereum whales are best at stirring things up during upgrade windows; the current selling pressure might be price suppression to accumulate.
· Don’t blindly go long on ZEC; wait for a pullback to the 20-day moving average without breaking it before considering. Liquidity depth is poor; spikes can make you doubt reality.
Don’t catch the last baton in ZEC’s FOMO, nor throw away blood-stained chips in ETH’s panic. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Avoid going long or short on $UNITREE in the coming weeks as much as possible. I'm not trying to help anyone; I just really don't want to see so many people lose. This thing was originally used for arbitrage, basically a bunch of wealthy people have a private market elsewhere similar to the previous Snowball liquidation incident. Someone is shorting. For now, it's best to avoid shorting and just observe.[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Zuckerberg delivers the report card: revenue is up, but shareholders aren't smiling. Making money is like turning on a faucet, spending is like a fire hydrant—who wouldn't check their wallet first?
Pharaoh believes the market's concern is how long it will take for AI investments to pay off. Meta's Q3 revenue reached $64.6 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations; ad impressions grew 10%, and average ad prices rose 14%, proving their core business still performs.
On the other hand, quarterly capital expenditures hit $34.9 billion, with free cash flow negative $2.1 billion. The full-year capital expenditure guidance floor was raised from $130 billion to $135 billion, with the ceiling remaining at $145 billion. Shareholders were expecting dividends, but Zuckerberg says: hold on, I still need to buy computing power.
Don't blame all the profit pressure on AI; this quarter also included nearly $9.9 billion in litigation costs. The real focus should be whether future ad and AI revenues can sustainably cover these investments.
Regarding Bitcoin, Pharaoh judges the impact mainly through risk appetite transmission: if concerns over AI returns continue to drag down tech stocks, Bitcoin could also be affected; if subsequent performance proves the investments effective, sentiment may recover.
When watching the market, don't just focus on the six words "revenue beats expectations," also watch the cash flow. No matter how attractive the story, someone has to pay the bill; don't let contract positions pay for the giants' dreams. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #MetaQ3营收超预期，巨额AI投入引发担忧 To start with a cold splash of water, seeing someone open a short position, I as a short-seller won't automatically cheer. Core Trader 75 just opened a 25x leveraged $ETH short position, holding 56.85 ETH, with a notional value of about $136,700. My judgment is: what needs the most scrutiny in this trade is the margin for error; you can't take a large short position as direct evidence of a bearish outlook.
I have two concerns. First, roughly calculating with 25x leverage, the initial margin is only about 4% of the notional position. If the price rises about 4% against the position, losses could approach the initial margin, and actual liquidation depends on margin mode, maintenance margin, and other factors. Second, monitoring only shows the opening action, no stop loss or other positions; this short could be a directional bet or serve as a hedge. Judging a price drop solely based on one address misses part of the logic. If the market moves up, the most uncomfortable will be high-leverage shorts who left no margin and refuse to admit mistakes.
Of course, he might be right. If the price continues to fall and rebounds fail to sustain, I will increase my recognition of the short direction; but I evaluate correct direction and appropriate leverage separately. Regarding this 25x ETH short, do you stand long or short? State your reasons: do you value the opening direction more, or the ability to withstand adverse volatility?X Layer is offering $50,000 to incentivize trading, but the real test is still ahead
📊 X Layer recently launched a community-certified token trading competition, running from October 19 to 26, with a total prize pool of $50,000.
This is not the first time X Layer has used funds to incentivize ecosystem trading. In September, it also launched an RWA liquidity incentive program.
What I focus on is not how much the reward is, but whether the funds will stay after these activities end.
💰 For a public blockchain, short-term trading volume is not hard to stimulate. As long as the rewards are attractive enough, trading activity can quickly rise.
The challenge is whether users are willing to continue trading and liquidity providers are willing to stay on the chain after the rewards stop.
This is also an important criterion for me to judge the quality of X Layer's development.
🔍 What’s worth watching next is whether active addresses, DEX trading volume, and locked capital scale significantly decline after the event ends on October 26.
If the ecosystem remains active without rewards, that is the real change worth OKB holders’ attention.
$OKB
#XLayer #OKB #OKEx #OnChainData #PublicChainEcosystem#SK Hynix Q3 earnings report is coming, can HBM4 boost profitability? 🌆 Three updates on Friday afternoon: meme product retreat, gold and interest rates, interest-bearing also waiting on interest rates
$DOGE around 0.08, meme productization has receded 🐶
Bitwise's Dogecoin spot ETF product BWOW has been liquidated and closed, investors receive cash. This is a retreat of meme coin productization, institutions are losing interest in token products without cash flow. At 0.08, it has returned to pure community sentiment pricing, so don't expect an ETF narrative rally in the short term.
$XAUT around 4,131, gold is waiting for next Tuesday 🥇
Backed by physical gold bars reserves, redeemable 24/7, price anchored to spot gold. Before the 10/28 interest rate decision, the opportunity cost of holding gold follows interest rate expectations. Around 4131, there is neither a bet on rate cuts nor panic buying of gold; the direction depends on the statement.
$ENA around 0.1927, interest-bearing protocol also waiting on interest rates 🌬️
USDe generates yield through a collateral portfolio, with returns linked to short-term USD interest rates. Before the decision, the attractiveness of yield won't suddenly change; 0.1927 moves with risk appetite. Once the interest rate direction is clear, funds will reassess whether interest-bearing USD products are worth entering.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ $BTC $ETH With the October meeting approaching, the market's bet on a pause has exceeded 80%, but the September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, higher than the previous 3.4%. The inflation rebound means the risk of rate hikes has not disappeared. (The market is not afraid of rate hikes, it just prefers to wait first.) The real variable is in December. 1 If inflation remains high, the Federal Reserve may delay easing expectations; if employment weakens, it will limit the space for further tightening. A pause in October does not mean safety by the end of the year. The crypto market also has its own variables. On October 19, BTC once touched $82,830; on that day, BTC spot ETF net inflows were about $527 million, but ETH ETF net outflows were about $103 million, and SOL ETF also had net outflows of about $6.7 million. Funds did not flow synchronously to all coins. On the US stock side, if US Treasury yields fall, tech stocks may continue to recover; if rate hike expectations rebound, valuation pressure will return. What I pay more attention to is: whether the pause expectation can continue to cool down, and whether ETF funds can spread from BTC to ETH, XRP, and SOL. The Federal Reserve's decisions affect risk appetite, but real capital flows better test whether this rebound has staying power. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ SK海力士 is about to release its Q3 earnings report, and the entire market is focused on one key question: can the new generation HBM4 truly boost profits?
AI high-bandwidth memory is currently the most profitable business in the storage industry. In previous years, ordinary memory only yielded thin margins, but HBM4 is the core component of NVIDIA's new generation AI chips, with a high unit price and thick profits, making it crucial for raising gross margins.
However, HBM4 did not fully explode in Q3 this year. On one hand, NVIDIA's new platform was delayed, causing SK海力士's shipments to fall short of expectations; on the other hand, Samsung quickly caught up, significantly improving yield rates and capturing a considerable market share, narrowing SK海力士's leading advantage.
Therefore, this quarter's profits mainly relied on price increases in traditional storage and stable support from older HBM3 models. The large-scale profit release from HBM4 has not yet fully materialized.
Institutions predict that Q3 profits will still be good, even close to new highs, but with limited growth. The real performance breakout is expected in Q4 when HBM4 is officially delivered in volume and large-scale expansion occurs next year.
Summary: This earnings report is very likely to be stable and not poor, but HBM4 has not yet truly taken up the banner of profitability; its explosive potential is to be seen later. For AI, chip, and tech sectors, this earnings report also serves as a short-term sentiment indicator and will directly impact tech stock volatility. $SNDK $SKHYNIX #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Q3 high profitability is certain, but this is the dividend brought by the price increase of HBM3E+DRAM; HBM4 has not yet truly taken over as the main performance driver this quarter. Whether HBM4 can meet expectations depends on the Q4 shipment data and the delivery progress of Nvidia's Rubin chip, while Samsung's catch-up is the biggest variable.🔥 Expectations for the Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes are growing, but don’t rush to celebrate! For BTC, what truly impacts the market isn’t just whether the pause button is pressed this time, but where interest rates will head in the future.
📌 Currently, the market’s expectation for a pause has reached 92.8%, indicating that most traders have already prepared in advance. However, market expectations are not the final outcome; even if the decision meets expectations, prices may not continue to rise. Funds might position early or choose to take profits after the announcement.
📊 The latest US initial jobless claims dropped to 194,000, reflecting resilience in the labor market. However, single-week data cannot represent the entire economy, nor can it solely determine Fed policy. Subsequent inflation data, employment trends, and policy statements will all influence market judgment.
📉 On the other hand, the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen below 5%, providing some support to tech stocks and the crypto market. But as long as interest rates remain at restrictive levels, risk assets cannot fully escape macroeconomic pressure.
⚠️ What worries me most is not the pause itself, but the market interpreting the pause as a full dovish turn. If the Fed continues to emphasize inflation risks, BTC may still face volatility caused by expectation adjustments.
Brothers, are you more bullish on BTC now, or are you waiting until after the meeting to act? Remember, expectations can be referenced, but position sizing must be controlled by yourself! #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ [a16z even removed "Crypto"—Is crypto VC starting to find the sector too narrow?]
a16z renamed its flagship fund from a16z Crypto to a16z Frontier, clearly expanding into frontier areas like AI, robotics, and biotech, but the official statement also said it will continue investing in crypto projects.
What’s worth pondering about this shift is that capital is beginning to redraw boundaries. a16z’s fifth crypto fund raised $2.2 billion this year, less than the $4.5 billion fund in 2022; the scale decrease alone doesn’t prove institutions are bearish on crypto, but at least it shows the previous round’s huge fundraising enthusiasm has cooled.
Imran mentioned the migration of mining infrastructure and talent toward AI, which has practical logic: mining has accumulated experience in power, data centers, and computing operations, and these capabilities can be transferred, but that doesn’t mean all mining farms can transform without cost.
This is crypto capital broadening its hunting grounds, not announcing an exit. The real test for the industry is whether it can create products that make money without relying on token speculation like $BTC, $ETH, $SOL; going forward, where a16z’s new fund actually invests is more convincing than what name it changed to.🔥Before the FOMC meeting, what BTC needs to guard against most may not be a rate hike, but rather "after the pause, the market finds it’s not as dovish as expected!"
📈 The market currently prices in a 92.8% chance of a rate hike pause, which on the surface looks clearly positive. But when most people have already bet on the same outcome, the moment the announcement is made could actually mark the start of a new battle between bulls and bears. The realization of good news and short-term profit-taking could both cause an unexpected pullback.
🔍 Initial jobless claims in the US dropped to 194,000, showing the labor market remains resilient; meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 5%, providing some cushion for risk assets. Taken together, these signals suggest the market has some breathing room but still faces policy uncertainty.
⚡ Going forward, focus on three directions: whether the Fed’s statement continues to emphasize inflation risks, whether its stance on future rates leans hawkish, and whether BTC can hold key support after the news is released. Simply guessing the decision isn’t enough; how the price reacts is equally important.
🛡️ My choice is not to heavily bet on direction before the meeting, nor to chase highs just because of one positive factor. Waiting for volatility to release and trends to confirm before considering the next step usually gives more control.
Brothers, do you think this pause will become a catalyst for BTC’s rise, or will it turn into a realization of good news? Share your thoughts in the comments! Hope everyone can protect their principal and trade rationally. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ The core issue now is not how much interest rates have fallen, but when funds will leave safe-haven assets and return to risk markets.
US Treasury yields have plunged, so why hasn't BTC followed suit?
This round of yield decline is not due to improved risk appetite, but because funds are withdrawing from tech stocks and high-volatility assets, shifting to US Treasuries as a safe haven.
At the close of US stocks on October 22, the Nasdaq fell 2.60%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.21%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 6.7%. Safe-haven buying pushed the 10-year US Treasury yield down by more than 19 basis points in a single day, marking the largest one-day drop since March 2023.
Lower interest rates usually benefit risk assets, but this time the funds flowed into US Treasuries rather than tech stocks and the crypto market. Although yields fell, the market is still reducing risk exposure, so BTC did not rally.
BTC is currently around $81,800. First, watch if $81,000 can hold; only if it rebounds above $82,700 will the rally have a chance to continue.
ETH is currently around $2,405, with support at $2,370 and resistance between $2,435 and $2,450.
This time, don't rush to be bullish just because US Treasury yields have fallen. Yields dropped but BTC did not rise, indicating funds are still defensive. BTC must reclaim $82,800 to signal that risk appetite is beginning to recover. If it fails to do so, the short-term trend remains weak and volatile.This time the position increase is not to lower the cost basis; instead, it raised babala's ETH long average price from 2385 to 2396.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
Honestly, adding more longs at this level is somewhat bold.
$ETH just dipped to a low of 2358, then bounced back near 2407. My judgment is that there is still support above 2350, and the price reclaiming 2400 indicates the short-term trend hasn't completely broken down, so I chose to add back to the long position.
But this trade isn't exactly comfortable right now.
$BTC is currently only around 81800; although it rebounded from 80900, it hasn't reclaimed the previous breakdown zone. Meanwhile, on October 22, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $636 million, and the ETH spot ETF also had a net outflow of about $111 million, showing a clear shift to caution in capital flows.
Plus, the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27–28 means the market will likely continue to fluctuate around interest rate expectations.
So this time, my position increase is not a bet on ETH taking off immediately, but rather that the 2358 level won't be easily broken again.
The 2400 level and my 2396 average price are key short-term support zones. As long as the price stays above these, I will first look at 2440, and after a breakout, target 2470–2500.
But if it falls back below 2396, it means this recovery to 2400 is just a weak rebound; if it can't hold 2358 either, then I will need to reassess the logic behind this position increase.
babala's long position has already been increased, with an average price of 2396.
Knowing the capital situation isn't great but still adding to the position is indeed a bit stubborn. Hopefully, this time ETH won't perform like "just stood above 2400, then immediately fell back down."🔥 With 92.8% expecting a pause in rate hikes, does BTC have to rise? I don't think so! The real risk might be exactly when everyone thinks there's no suspense.
📊 As the October FOMC meeting approaches, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged. But the trading market never just speculates on the outcome; it also factors in the gap between the outcome and expectations. If the pause has already been fully priced in, profit-taking might occur when the announcement is officially made.
🌍 Additionally, the U.S. economy hasn't shown clear signs of slowing down, with the latest initial jobless claims dropping to 194,000, indicating the labor market remains resilient. Meanwhile, whether inflation pressure has truly eased is still a matter the Fed needs to weigh. We can't assume monetary policy will immediately turn accommodative just because rate hikes pause.
📉 The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling below 5% is a positive signal for risk assets, but that doesn't mean BTC will necessarily rise. What deserves more attention next is the Fed's stance on inflation in its statement and how the market reassesses the future path of interest rates.
🛡️ My approach is simple: don't bet on direction before the meeting; watch price reactions after the news. If BTC breaks through key resistance with volume, we can observe for continuation; if it rallies then falls back, be cautious of chasing gains and getting trapped.
Brothers, do you think this will be a bullish realization or will the bulls keep pushing? Feel free to leave your comments and discuss! #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Brothers, don't treat ETFs as the whole market
Although ETFs make it easier for traditional financial market funds
to allocate BTC📈
Bitcoin itself is traded 24/7
ETFs have their own trading hours and fund subscription/redemption mechanisms
So ETF data and Bitcoin prices
don't necessarily move in sync
Sometimes ETFs flow in, but the price still falls📉
Sometimes ETFs flow out, but the price can still rebound📈
The key is to look at the overall market buying and selling power
A Bitcoin rebound doesn't necessarily mean the bulls have won
It could just be that the shorts have withdrawn first
But if you want the rebound to turn into a real uptrend
You still have to see if new buying interest comes in
If this rebound is mainly driven by shorts taking profits
Then when the shorts have mostly covered, who will keep buying?
So to judge whether the rebound can continue
You can't just look at how much the price has risen
You also have to see if there is sustained capital demand for the rise $BTC 🚨Whale holding three short positions, surviving on funding fees!
$BTC $ETH $SOL
The combined unrealized loss of BTC, ETH, and SOL triple short positions is nearly 30 million U, with accumulated funding fees collected at 10.68 million U.
The position leverage is not extreme, the liquidation price is far away, no immediate risk of forced liquidation in the short term, mainly focusing on long-term funding fee earnings.
⚠️Key reminder:
As the market continues to rise, unrealized losses will keep expanding; funding fees may reverse at any time. This strategy is only suitable for very large capital; retail investors should not blindly follow and hold short positions!
⚠️For review and communication only, not trading advice
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Watching the market too much makes it hard to hold positions.
SOL dropped from 107.50 to 103, then rebounded to 104.63. Many people watched it all day these past two days, but the more they watched, the more anxious they became, and they lost positions they could have held.
There are only two useful times to watch the market closely: when the price is testing a key level, and when your position is close to the stop loss. The former is to see if the market will break through, the latter is to wait for a signal to confirm whether to exit.
Every small fluctuation, every 15-minute candle pullback looks like a reversal. Watching too long makes normal volatility seem like a risk signal. From a high of 104.85 down to 103.46, a swing of $1.39 is normal for SOL.
The period from 10 PM to midnight is indeed when direction is set, that’s when you should watch. At other times, the price hovers around 105, no key levels are tested, and the position is still far from stop loss, so watching won’t change anything.
Holding a $SOL long position with stop loss set below 102, now at 104.63, there’s still $2 room before stop loss. Watching all day at this time is just noise; it’s better to wait until the price nears 102 to watch closely.
Watching three times a day versus thirty times a day leads to completely different results.The probability of a rate hike pause in October has soared to 92.8%. On the surface, the market is celebrating wildly, but this is actually an extremely dangerous boiling frog trap. The real uncertainty is not whether there will be a hike in October, but the logic behind the US Treasury yield falling below 5% and how the Federal Reserve will set the tone for December.
But with no economic recession and inflation not crushed, why would the Federal Reserve cut rates? The current decline in the 10-year US Treasury yield does not mean the risk is gone; rather, funds are preemptively trading the peak of the rate hike cycle. The high interest rate environment remains, and as long as the Fed does not soften its stance in December, this mountain could crush risk assets at any time.
Looking at $BTC, it is now in a sideways consolidation after a dead cat bounce, propped up by expectations of a rate hike pause, but there is heavy overhead resistance, and ETF funds have not formed sustained net inflows. If the Fed insists that further hikes are still possible, this emotional rebound will collapse instantly, testing lower support levels.
Looking at $ETH, Ethereum remains the most fragile follower. ETFs continue to see outflows, the ecosystem has no new breakout points, and it falls fastest when the market softens. Don’t assume it has stabilized just because it is consolidating; once the funding dries up, the decline will definitely accelerate.
Looking at $XAUT, gold has recently rebounded following the drop in US Treasury yields, but there is a huge expectation gap here. If the Fed maintains high rates, the gold rebound will be short-lived. But if the market starts to truly price in that the economy cannot withstand high rates, central bank buying and safe-haven funds will immediately take over, leading to an independent rally. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ 🔥The logic behind BTC's rise may be changing! Many people in the market only focus on capital inflows but overlook a key question: how much selling pressure remains?
📊 If buying continues to increase but a large number of holders still choose to sell, the price may not immediately rise. Conversely, when selling willingness gradually declines, even without a sudden surge in buying, the supply-demand balance could drive more noticeable price changes.
🔍 Looking at some historical trends from the past two bull markets, the weakening of selling pressure may occur in two stages. After the first signal appears, the market may still experience declines, sideways movement, and repeated fluctuations; only when signs of further exhaustion of selling pressure appear in the second stage can the trend truly improve.
🚀 What’s special about this BTC cycle is that the first stage already saw a volume-driven rise, not fully replicating the previous pattern of a long bottoming phase followed by a concentrated breakout. Therefore, the subsequent trend deserves continuous tracking, but we cannot directly conclude that the second stage is complete based solely on historical experience.
🛡️ In practice, the focus remains on observing price structure, volume, and pullback support. If selling pressure weakens while the price breaks through and holds key resistance, the signal is more convincing; if support continues to fail, a reassessment is needed.
Brothers, do you think BTC is now at the prelude to a new market cycle, or does it still need time for confirmation? Share your thoughts in the comments! #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ OpenAI's reported move from a $1.4T to $1.25T pre-money target is notable because even a modest reset at that scale signals that capital is demanding clearer terms for compute-heavy growth. The round may still be enormous, but price discipline is becoming part of the story. Profitability and long-term capital needs remain unresolved.
#OpenAIValuationCut #France's government bond yields hit a 24-year high, will the bond market risk spill over?
"French government bonds surge to 5%, Bitcoin gives back $3,000"
The yield on France's 10-year government bonds broke through 5.14%, reaching a 24-year high, while Bitcoin dropped directly from $84,500 to $81,600, giving back nearly $3,000 in a single day.
France's public debt is approaching 119% of GDP. Overseas institutions selling French bonds were required to top up margin. After closed-door reconciliation at multinational trading desks, they had to first sell the most liquid Bitcoin positions to raise cash.
The latest coin price is narrowly holding around $81,700, and all eyes are on whether France's new budget proposal can pass the National Assembly next week. $BTC Big players are hyping $10,000, but 369 shorts are lining up to get slaughtered! $ZEC 1231 is just ridiculous
The house holds 97% of the chips watching you perform, yet you fantasize about toppling the house with just a few hundred U.
News and market: Gemini twins are aggressively pumping ZEC, shouting "Crypto Bitcoin" long-term target $10,000. But reality is harsh, the K-line has steadily dropped from 1367 to 1231. Plainly put: big players are responsible for the hype, the market is here to slap it down.
Funds and whales (retail trader profile): 95 million quietly exited in 15 days. The most absurd part is the chip concentration at 97%, retail investors basically hold nothing! 121 longs average at 1085, comfortably making 10 million; meanwhile, there are 369 shorts, triple the number, averaging 1252, all squeezed above 1250-1300 waiting to die.
Trading strategy (20% position, mainly long with some short):
Long: squeeze the shorts. Aggressive traders buy directly at 1231, conservative ones buy on pullback at 1200-1210, target 1260.
Short: guard against false breakouts. Aggressive traders short on resistance at 1260-1280, conservative ones chase after breaking below 1200, target 1150.
Personal view: Don’t be fooled by the $10,000 brainwash. With 97% of chips in the house’s hands and so many shorts packed in, the main force will likely push up to trigger a short squeeze and blow out the shorts. Chasing shorts now is just handing your head to the dog house. #MetaQ3营收超预期，巨额AI投入引发担忧 SOXL six hours from 77.99 pulled up to 87.40, up 11.8%, U.S. stocks haven't opened for a minute.
The market opens only at 21:30, triple-leveraged ETFs have no net asset value during the holiday to hedge, prices are entirely driven by Asian capital speculation — this spike at 77.99 and this 11.8% increase are not true closing prices, just shadows amplified by leverage.
Last night there was a real dump: at 22:00 a -7.07% drop from 93.57 to 85.33 (989,000 contracts), from 23:00 to 00:00 another 1.36 million contracts dumped down to 80.12 at 07:00, four bearish candles with 3 million contracts.
At 08:00 during the Asian session, 623,000 contracts pushed down to 77.99 then pulled back to 84.06, then gradually lifted stepwise 84.98→85.61→87.23, breaking above MA20 at 85.15, but volume was only 40% of the dump.
Short covering is not a reversal. Chasing highs means buying for the 21:30 open.
Close above 87.40 with volume (≥250,000) → buy on pullback at 87.0~87.2, stop loss 86.30, target 89.55, risk-reward 3.0.
Close below 84.30 with volume (≥250,000) → short on rebound at 84.8~85.2, stop loss 85.90, target 82.47, risk-reward 3.0.
$SOXL
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ From where to see?$SPCX Yesterday, there was a public short-selling signal at $155, and today it dropped to a low of $143.78! The target of $150 was taken down!
Brothers, I warned yesterday that with SPCX's positive news landing, don't rush to chase the upside! The news of Musk giving shares combined with earnings beating expectations had already been partially priced in earlier, and short-term funds might cash out profits anytime based on the news.
So I directly gave the idea: try a light short position around $155, with a target of $150!
How did the market move? The price fell steadily from the high, hitting a low of $143.78, even breaking below the $150 target!
Positive news doesn't mean the price will keep rising, and earnings beating expectations doesn't mean the price won't fall! What really matters is judging market expectations, the rhythm of funds cashing out, and the price level.First, consider the worst-case scenario: if the attention brought by influencer promotion fades, token holders may face a combination of cooling sentiment and potential selling pressure, rather than just a "endorsement fee" gossip. This is my risk assessment and does not mean it has already happened.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, kimchi is suspected to have received 1.35 billion $PUMP as a platform endorsement fee and removed Pump.fun from their personal profile two days later. During these two days, the platform's revenue dropped from $1.61 million to $1.35 million, about a 16% decrease; active addresses fell from 178,539 to 159,492, about an 11% decrease.
My judgment is that this looks more like a signal of an interest relationship that needs verification and should not be directly taken as negative price news. ⚠️ I will watch three risks: the nature of the endorsement fee is not yet confirmed, so speculation should not be treated as fact; revenue and active addresses declined simultaneously, but this does not necessarily mean the influencer's presence caused it; if the tokens have indeed been received, how they are handled afterward will add uncertainty, but receiving tokens does not equal selling them.
When I do risk control, I usually first write down the maximum loss I can bear, then judge whether the news changes my original assumptions, without replacing risk budgeting with the influencer's attitude. When encountering such questionable endorsement relationships and platform data decline, how much stop loss do you generally set for a single trade? Based on price proportion or on the account's bearable loss?【Leverage Check #1】Don't think XRP can't fall anymore; the number of longs on OKX is already 3.8 times the shorts.
This time analyzing XRP, look at three things:
① Number of people. The long-to-short account ratio for OKX XRP contracts was 3.26 at 1 PM yesterday, and 3.77 at 1 PM today. The price dropped from 1.40 back to 1.32, yet more people went long.
② Money. During the same period, OKX XRP contract open interest fell from $114 million to $111 million. More people but not more money, it looks more like small positions bottom-fishing, big money hasn't followed.
③ Funding rate. The funding rate is normally slightly long-biased, not extreme, indicating longs haven't been cornered yet.
Product people would be more cautious seeing this data: when users crowd overwhelmingly on one side, liquidity is often on the other side.
My judgment: XRP is weak in the short term, most likely first to sweep longs near the 10-20 low around 1.286.
Wrong line: If it reclaims the 10-22 high at 1.399, I admit I was wrong.
Which side are you on: Are the bottom-fishers right this time, or will they get swept again?
#韩国全北银行接入Ripple，XRP能否受益
$XRP ZEC fell 2.91% with liquidations of only 9.41 million, while BTC fell 1.07% with liquidations close to 100 million: what does this data contrast indicate?
24h total network liquidation data update. BTC liquidations at 96.93 million, ETH at 73.43 million, totaling about 170 million, accounting for 40%. ZEC's 2.91% drop far exceeds BTC's 1.07%, but liquidations are only 9.41 million, less than one-tenth of BTC's.
The main reason for concentrated liquidations in BTC and ETH is the large contract size base. Open interest and trading volume are much greater than other assets; larger contracts often generate higher absolute liquidation amounts, which does not equate to higher leverage risk. One must look at liquidation as a proportion of open interest.
ZEC liquidations at 9.41 million with a 2.91% drop. Shallow contract depth and small positions, or possibly due to lack of open interest data, can only be reasonably explained but not concluded. This cannot be used to infer "low selling pressure" or "easy rebound."
XAU liquidations at 18.56 million, SOXL at 14.33 million, with long positions absolutely dominant. These retracements synchronized with crypto or were disturbed by FOMC, requiring cross-verification with US Treasury and USD. SOL liquidations at 7.99 million with a relatively mild 0.39% drop.
ZEC's large drop but small liquidation amount reminds us: liquidation rankings reflect the scale of liquidated amounts, not the ranking of leverage risk. Follow-up tracking of ZEC's relative strength and changes in BTC and ETH liquidation concentration is needed.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #ETF单日流出超6亿美元，BTC价格能否企稳？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC BTC dominance hits highest since May, but that doesn't mean ETH will catch up
CoinDesk: BTC market cap dominance rose to 60% on October 21, the highest since May, while the Memecoin index dropped over 5% in a week.
Reported on October 23, about $435 million liquidated in 24 hours, with longs around $385 million.
$ETH is currently priced around 2402.6 on OKX, ETH/BTC at 0.02937, about 11% lower than 0.03294 on September 10.
I think this is not the "eve of a catch-up rally," but rather funds moving to hide in BTC:
The exchange rate has been declining steadily, with the low on October 18 at 0.02883, not far from now.
On October 21, it surged to 2526.4 but was pushed back down, indicating sellers remain above.
Observing without chasing.
If volume supports holding above 2526.4 (October 21 high), then consider a breakout.
If it falls below 2317 (October 14 low), it means the lower boundary of the consolidation zone is broken, so stay away.
Do you think next is more like ETH/BTC bottoming and rebounding, or breaking below 0.0288 first?
$ETH
#BTC dominance hits highest since May
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Brothers, the 30U target is rushing towards 300U, currently at 122U, the opportunity has come again, the opportunity has come again.
This time we have to seize it, Unitree Technology suddenly skyrocketed.
Honestly, watching this surge excites me greatly!
$UNITREE jumped straight from 74.2 to 88.38, a daily surge of over 14%, it really looks fierce. But why pull up precisely at this time?
Tomorrow is Unitree's earnings report meeting, this is clearly the main force rushing to induce a bull trap, filling expectations in advance, and once the earnings report lands, it will be their time to sell off.
Why am I so confident?
Just look at the fundamentals.
Unitree's revenue in the first half of 2026 grew by 48%, but net profit excluding non-recurring items actually dropped nearly 20%, the growth rate has clearly slowed down.
More importantly, over 30% of the profit is supported by government subsidies, the real profitability is not that strong.
And don't forget, Unitree's A-share IPO issue price was only 150.8 yuan, now the on-chain token price converted shows an extremely exaggerated premium.
Rushing to pull up before the earnings report, after the report the good news is fully priced in and turns into bad news, this script has played out countless times in the crypto world.
So my plan is very clear: do not chase the rally, wait for it to surge and then pull back.
In the 88 to 90 range, as long as it can't break through, I will enter short positions in batches.
Stop loss is set above 92, target first looks at 80, if it breaks down, it will head towards the previous low of 74.2
$BTC
$ETH
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Gao Ge Talks Crypto: 10-23 BTC Strategy Analysis
Enter short positions around BTC 81900-82700, stop loss at 83200, targets at 80800-79700-78800-76500-75000
Yesterday, BTC dropped steadily from 84875 down to 80888, hardly giving any decent rebound.
In this kind of market, the biggest fear isn’t the drop itself, but that after a long decline, a sudden bounce causes people to rush to call a bottom.
There is indeed a chance of a short-term rebound today, but as Gao Ge always says: a bounce after a deep drop doesn’t mean the bottom has been reached.
Currently, the number of short positions is 2.25 times the number of longs, clearly more people are bearish. Everyone thinks it should rebound here, so be even more cautious. Don’t rush to catch the falling knife before others have exited.
So no chasing today, wait for the rebound to provide an entry point.
If the price struggles to rise near 819, you can lightly try shorting; if the rebound reaches 827, then decide whether to add more.
Stop loss is set at 832. On the downside, watch 808 first, if broken then 797, and further attention to 788.
If volume supports a stable hold above 832, abandon this strategy immediately and don’t stubbornly bet against the market.
Don’t rush to bottom-fish just because it’s dropped a lot, and don’t rush to chase longs just because of a rebound.
How the market moves is decided by the market; when to act is up to you.
Follow the trend, not your emotions. The greatest confidence in trading never comes from predicting the market, but from strictly adhering to the principle of following the trend! Maintain steady rhythm, respect the trend, enforce strict risk control, avoid greed for short-term profits, don’t gamble on unexpected moves, and consistently execute your strategy — that is the core of long-term trading success!#With the October FOMC approaching, what are the variables around the Fed pausing rate hikes? The market is currently treating the "pause" as easing in trading, which is wrong. A pause just means no further increases; rates remain high, and funding costs have not dropped at all. The meeting on the 28th should focus on four things. The first is oil prices. WTI closed at $99, Brent rose 4% in one day—not because demand picked up, but because the US and Israel postponed their strike plans against Iran until after the November 3 midterm elections, with troop deployments completing in early November. When energy prices rise, inflation expectations become uncontrollable, pushing the door open for rate cuts. The second is employment and wages. This section determines whether the Fed dares to ease before inflation returns to target. The third is votes. Before the midterms, the White House needs low financing costs, while the Fed needs independence; their timelines differ. In financial terms: when political pressure is high, meeting language tends to be softer, but the real path of rates depends on data. The fourth is more interesting: the market is already tightening on behalf of the Fed. This wave in tech stocks—Nasdaq down 2.6%, Philadelphia Semiconductor down over 6%, Meta raising future spending commitments to $825 billion—means the financial environment has tightened itself. The market is doing the work for the Fed, so it doesn’t need to rush action. Historical comparison here: after the rate hike on December 19, 2018, the market forced the Fed to fully pivot by January 2019 within two months, directly removing "further gradual rate hikes" from the language.Bitcoin's total network hash rate has reached a nearly seven-month high.
However, publicly listed mining companies are shifting their machines towards AI.
The hash rate of large mining companies has dropped, but the total on-chain hash rate is actually higher.
This indicates that someone has taken over the idle mining machines.
Don't interpret it as "miners all running off to do AI."
Watch the next difficulty adjustment to see if it will rise again. #ETF单日流出超6亿美元，BTC价格能否企稳？
$BTCSOL pushed up, almost, then pulled back, the third day in a row.
On 10-22, after breaking out at 109.17, it steadily declined to 102.93 (at 00:00 today, volume peaked at 630,000 contracts). After sweeping the lowest point, it stopped dropping; from 01:00 to 07:00, volume decreased from 380,000 to 90,000, hovering between 103.0 and 104.0 for seven hours, with neither buyers nor sellers in a hurry.
At 08:00 during the Asian session, volume returned to 180,000~280,000, with the center of gravity rising step by step from 104.0 to 104.6 to 104.5. The current price is 104.64, standing 0.60 above the MA20 at 104.06. However, the three attempts to push above 104.7/104.8/104.6 are each lower than the last, and the 105.2 bar with 540,000 contracts distributing supply still looms overhead.
Standing above the moving average but unable to rise further is most dangerous for premature positioning.
Close above 104.80 with volume ≥ 200,000 → pull back to 104.5~104.65 long, stop loss at 104.20, targets at 105.24/105.70, risk-reward ratio 2.4.
Close below 103.79 with volume ≥ 200,000 → short on rebound to 104.0~104.15, stop loss at 104.55, targets at 103.20, break to watch 102.93, risk-reward ratio 2.1.
No trades between 103.79 and 104.80.
$SOL
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)My judgment: This news tends to weaken the market sentiment of Pump.fun; influencer endorsements cannot sustain the trend. According to Lookonchain monitoring, kimchi removed Pump.fun from their personal profile two days later; the suspected endorsement fee received is 1.35 billion $PUMP, but the endorsement fee claim has not been confirmed.
My first principle for trend analysis is to look at the data, not who shouts the loudest. In the past two days, platform revenue dropped from $1.61 million to $1.35 million, about a 16% decrease; active addresses fell from 178,539 to 159,492, about an 11% decrease. Both indicators declined simultaneously, which carries more weight than whether the platform name is in the profile.
Second, do not mistake coincidence for causation. We cannot conclude that the revenue decline was caused by removing the platform name from the profile. My view is that these current data will weaken market confidence in the platform's popularity but are insufficient to confirm a long-term downturn.
Third, wait for persistence; do not rush to conclusions. If subsequent revenue and active addresses continue to decline, then the persuasive power of influencer promotion will be weaker—this is my speculation, not a confirmed outcome.
Trend is the best friend; I would rather be slower than replace trend judgment with endorsement rumors. Facing this news, what methods are you using now to judge the trend: continuous tracking of revenue and active addresses, or combining with price trends for confirmation?1. Can the trading business continue? #Can Robinhood's trading business growth continue? First, the conclusion: I think it can continue. Robinhood's trading business has now significantly diversified, enhancing its resilience to economic cycles. Trading remains the core, but the structure has shifted from relying on cryptocurrency to a more balanced multi-driven model: Q2 2026 trading revenue was $776M (up 44% year-over-year), still the largest segment and the fastest growing. Breakdown (Q2 2026): Prediction markets have become a new growth engine, offsetting the decline in crypto revenue. The company now has 13 business lines with annualized revenue exceeding $100 million. Other revenues (including Gold subscriptions, Trump Accounts, etc.) grew 54% year-over-year to $143M; net interest income grew 9% to $389M despite a declining interest rate environment, benefiting from asset scale expansion. Operational support data (as of end of August 2026): Funded Customers: 28.6M (about +7% year-over-year) Total Platform Assets: approximately $384B LTM net deposit growth about 24% Gold subscription users continue rapid growth (Q2 reached 4.8M, up 39% year-over-year) The trading business no longer solely depends on crypto/retail speculation during market booms but is driven by options, prediction markets, subscription models, interest income, and product diversification (AI trading agents, weekend trading, RobThe US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of about $635.6 million on October 22, the largest single-day redemption since the end of June. The total inflow for the previous three days was about $1.07 billion, with IBIT withdrawing about $254.1 million in a single day and FBTC about $217.5 million, accounting for the majority. CoinGecko spot BTC was about $81,717 (snapshot around 14:08 Beijing time).
It looks more like synchronized selling after a price pullback, rather than institutions turning bearish in advance. The day before, there was a large net purchase, and the next day it turned into a net sale. The opposing view would say that from October 19 to 22, there was still a net inflow of about $440 million over four days, so one day's numbers do not indicate a change in direction.
If the outflow approaches zero again within five trading days, or if the ETF turns positive and the price stabilizes above $82,000, this wave can be considered a retracement; otherwise, reduce positions according to risk preference first.
$BTC
#Bitcoin #ETFBanks are also starting to eye the "money waiting to buy the dip."
SoFi launched SOFIE yesterday, each representing a $1 bank deposit, with an announced annual yield of 4.40%, and the interest rate will fluctuate.
When you want to buy crypto, you can first exchange 1:1 into SoFiUSD, then buy crypto within the app or transfer to supported external wallets. Depositing money to earn interest, buying crypto, and on-chain transfers are now integrated into the same process.
But don't confuse the two: deposits corresponding to SOFIE enjoy FDIC deposit insurance within applicable rules and limits; once converted to SoFiUSD stablecoin, that protection no longer applies. Currently, the product is being rolled out in batches to SoFi Crypto members.
I find this direction quite interesting. When the market is good, platforms compete for your trading fees; when you’re holding cash and watching, banks want to keep that balance.
Even "holding dollars for a while" has become a business everyone is competing for. Intel's volume difference between selling and buying is too large.
Last night, during the US stock session, four bearish candles cut 88.96 down to 84.60: 21:00 thirty-seven thousand, 22:00 thirty-three thousand, 00:00 sixteen thousand, 04:00 twenty-five thousand. After the 04:00 close, no one cared; from 05:00 to 07:00, volume shrank to just over ten thousand, hovering around 84.5.
At 08:00 in the Asian session, a candle with volume 14,810 dipped to 84.07 then pulled back to 86.31, with a long lower shadow of 0.85 — someone bought at the lowest point. Then for six hours, volume shrank and price moved sideways between 85.43 and 87.53, closing candles progressively higher. The current price is 87.18, above the MA20 at 86.69.
But the buying volume is only one-third of the selling volume. This is called an oversold correction, not a reversal. There are still more than seven hours until the US market opens at 21:30; the lines drawn during the Asian session don’t count.
If a 1H candle closes with volume ≥12,000 above 87.53 → buy on pullback at 87.0~87.2, stop loss at 86.55, target 88.24, breakout target 89.34, risk-reward ratio 2.1.
If a candle closes with volume ≥15,000 breaking below 85.43 → short on rebound at 85.8~86.1, stop loss at 86.60, target 84.60, breakout target 84.07, risk-reward ratio 2.0.
Avoid trading in between.
$INTC
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)Discussion volume dropped by more than 60% in a week, has $HYPE entered a cooling-off period?
The discussion volume of a coin dropped by more than 60% in a week, yet the price remained flat. This is worth pondering. On October 14, HYPE's discussion volume was about 5.9 million, but by October 21 it had fallen to only 2.07 million, while the price basically stayed the same over those seven days. Based on past experience, when the hype fades, the price usually falls along with it. This time it didn’t happen, which suggests that those shouting slogans and the actual holders might not be the same group.
There is a significant amount of noise in the discussion volume; when the market is hot, short-term traders and onlookers are all vocal; when the market cools, these people leave first. The price not weakening accordingly means the chips haven’t loosened, and selling pressure is limited. This looks more like an emotional cleansing: the restless attention has left, leaving holders who have judgment about the platform itself. Of course, another possibility must be acknowledged — attention is shifting, market hotspots are rotating, and eyeballs are drawn to other themes. What’s the difference? Look at the market after the cooldown.
If the discussion volume stabilizes at a low level and the price consolidates or even shifts upward, that’s a healthy cooldown; if the discussion volume continues to shrink and trading dries up, then beware of marginalization. Current data leans toward the former: the hype has cooled, but the foundation remains. For HYPE, the cooling-off period may not be a bad thing; with less noise, it’s easier to see who is swimming naked.Observation approach for switching between high and low capital.
$BTC holds support, $DOGE represents meme sentiment, AVAX represents mid-cap public chains.
Meme coins are crazy while public chains remain stagnant, indicating that capital only dares to play with light tokens and is reluctant to engage in long-term mainline investments.company could make the story richer, but it might also make it harder for shareholders to diversify risk.
This point is easily overshadowed by the imagination of a “super tech conglomerate.” Cars, satellite communications, rockets, and AI seem to belong to different industries and sound naturally complementary, but if they all rely on large-scale investment and continuous financing, changes in capital costs may not be offset by each other.ETFs are "selectively retreating," and whales are "switching positions and defecting"
Looking at the deeper structure of capital flows, this is the most divisive part.
A research report from DWF Labs points out a harsh pattern: since the launch of the US spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, in eight sell-offs with declines of 15% or more, seven saw net outflows from ETFs.
This is not a coincidence. It is a structural pattern.
ETF money is not "long-term allocation." At least a large part of it is not. It flows in during rallies and flows out during declines. It accelerates both the upswing and the downswing.
The actions of on-chain whales are even clearer. An anonymous whale sold 410 BTC on Hyperliquid, cashing out $34.16 million, then bought 14,341 ETH. Another institutional-level address sold a total of 837.8 BTC, switching positions to buy 27,500 ETH at an average price of $2,534.
In the past week, the Bitcoin spot ETF saw net outflows of about $681 million, and the Ethereum ETF saw net outflows of $542 million. $BTC $ETH $SOL #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ #MetaQ3营收超预期，巨额AI投入引发担忧 #存储芯片股再度下跌，AI投资回报担忧加剧 Why are memory chip stocks falling again and again? Pharaoh directly said, don't just look at the green market screen; this time it's the "AI investment return" blame that has finally hit the memory sector. First, let's see how badly they fell. Micron Technology closed down 5.86% on October 22, with the stock price dropping to around $860, retreating more than 30% from the June high. SanDisk was even worse, having dropped nearly 6% in a single day previously. In South Korea, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics plunged 24.3% and 17.8% respectively over the past week, marking their largest weekly declines since 2008. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen for eight consecutive trading days, setting the longest losing streak since 2008. Why the crash? Three things exploded simultaneously. First, hedge funds are frantically withdrawing. Goldman Sachs data shows that from October 8 to 14, hedge funds net sold global AI stocks for five consecutive trading days, wiping out all cumulative net purchases since early 2025 within one week. AI trading is too crowded; once someone runs first, a stampede follows. Second, the returns on AI capital expenditures are being questioned. Broadcom CEO Hock Tan directly warned that compared to chip or power shortages, funding issues might become a bigger challenge for AI expansion. Some bonds from CoreWeave have already surged to about 15% yield, and the market is starting to worry whether companies borrowing money to build AI infrastructure can repay it. Third, ChangXin's technological catch-up stirred up a hornet's nest. ChangXin announced that its 4F² architecture DRAM will launch DDR5 by the end of the year.In investing, the most important factor is the purchase price. As long as the fundamentals remain sound, the lower you buy, the greater the margin of safety. The probability of subsequent gains is high, and the risk-reward ratio and odds are also favorable. This principle applies universally—whether in the crypto space, stocks, precious metals, or commodities—there is no difference.
At the end of 2020, I wanted to speculate in real estate, hoping to earn money that outpaces inflation. China's real estate market had already taken off since 2015, with many properties doubling in value, clearly benefiting many. The area where I bought a new home had also doubled in value within just five years. For such a large market cap asset to double in that time was remarkable. At such a time, when I rushed in to buy, I naturally became the "chopped chives" who took the risk.
At the end of 2020, housing prices were so high that both the probability of further gains and the risk-reward ratio were extremely poor. Unfortunately, I didn’t understand investing back then, was a bit vain and pretentious, and lived under others’ expectations. I jumped into a deep pit and am still paying off the debt.
All my successful investments were bought at low prices. I bought Bitcoin at $8,000 in 2020 and sold at $54,000 in 2021. I bought Bitcoin again at $18,000 in 2022 and sold it in batches between $110,000 and $120,000 in 2025. I increasingly feel that investing, regardless of the market, follows the same logic. Buy low enough, survive when others fail, and you will most likely achieve great victory and return triumphant.