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Net profit plunged 43% year-on-year, like a strong cold air mass directly blowing into Tesla's profit statement; on the same sounding chart, the automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits rebounded from 16.3% to 18.1%, and free cash flow turned positive to $1.531 billion — the temperature difference on both sides of the front has widened, with warm and moist air flowing in a low-level inversion.
Third-quarter revenue was $28.046 billion, nearly flat year-on-year, like a quasi-stationary front hanging overhead; net profit was $787 million, down about 43% year-on-year, corresponding to a strong convective cell sweeping through, with short-term heavy precipitation concentrated. Automotive business gross margin rose 1.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, equivalent to a narrowing of the low-level temperature dew point spread, lowering the convective trigger threshold; but the 43% net profit decline indicates intrusion of dry cold air in the mid-levels, suppressing precipitation efficiency. Energy storage deployment was 13.7 GWh with a segment gross margin of 33.1%, like abnormally high sea surface temperatures providing energy for subsequent convection; paid full self-driving customers exceeded 1.7 million, with driverless taxis and Cyber Taxis continuing to advance, multiple members of the path ensemble forecast beginning to converge but not yet fully overlapping. The market pressure gradient of the US stock proxy XEWY often precedes the financial report precipitation landing, and capital flow is like coastal station wind shear, where echo continuity is more important than single-point intensity.
Cold advection on the profit side and warm advection on the cash flow side converge in the frontal zone forming a "cold above, warm below" stratification, which most easily induces clear-air turbulence: surface visibility is still acceptable, but vertical wind shear is significant. High gross margin in energy storage acts as a dry warm cap, and automotive gross margin recovery is the boundary layer uplift; if net profit precipitation continues while cash flow high pressure does not subside, XEWY's radar echoes are more likely to show pulsed fluctuations rather than stable stratiform cloud precipitation. The duty desk is watching three key elements: whether the gross margin warm ridge can be maintained, whether free cash flow remains continuously positive, and whether the observation samples for energy storage and full self-driving are dense enough. Current sounding shows cold advection in the profit statement, warm advection in the cash flow statement, converging in the frontal zone, with low visibility and warning level not yet lifted.
My professional judgment: this is not a finished heavy rain event, but intermittent precipitation during frontal passage, with XEWY's radar echoes swinging north and south, and the shear line not yet closed. #TeslaQ3MarginRecovery $STX
In-depth analysis of Bond3, expected to start on November 10
Basic rule review: For every BTC staked, an equivalent value of STX equal to 5% of the BTC market cap must be locked simultaneously, with a lock-up period of 6 months. Rewards are paid in BTC, which remains on Bitcoin L1 without cross-chain packaging. The first two phases combined staked 735 BTC, with STX lock-up volume rising synchronously by 25%. Several well-known institutions have entered (21Shares, HashKey Cloud, etc.), and institutional participation willingness continues to rise.
Each staking phase expands the BTC staking scale compared to the previous one. For every additional BTC staked, a new STX lock-up demand is created, directly consuming circulating STX.
1. Directly brings STX buy pressure + lock-up consumption
If the third phase continues to expand, more institutions will buy STX on the market to meet the 5% matching requirement and lock it for half a year, directly reducing circulating supply. This is the core value capture logic of STX.
2. Track benchmark effect, strengthening the BTCFi leader narrative
Stacks is the native Bitcoin layer 2; BTC staking requires no bridging or BTC wrapping, and the principal always remains on Bitcoin layer 1, making it the safest solution favored by institutions. If the scale continues to exceed expectations in November, it will further consolidate its position in the track.
3. Institutional ecosystem continues to improve
Licensed custodians like Anchorage have completed integration, allowing more compliant institutions to participate directly in BTC staking. The medium- to long-term capital inflow expectation is very strong
The coin that dropped from 0.2371 to 0.0054 surged by 40% in the early morning, but the fee rate turned negative.
BILL is an old project for human-machine verification, launched in May, with a high of 0.2371 and a low of 0.0054 the day before yesterday, dropping 97.7% in over five months.
The early morning opening was 0.0058, the highest before 6 AM was 0.0075, 40% higher than the low two days ago, but it had fallen back 10% by 9 AM.
From 7 to 9 AM, the trading volume was 11.6 million, twice that of the early morning two hours, but the price fell instead of rising.
The turnover jumped from 2.8 million yesterday to 40 million, a fourteenfold increase; open interest is still less than 2 million, with a turnover twenty times the open interest in one day.
OKX only has BILL perpetual contracts, no spot pairs; the market is falling, but it’s the only one pulling up, and no announcement explaining this has been found.
I think the money pushing it up is not in this pool: the perpetual contract discount to the index is 0.16%, the fee rate stayed around the baseline for several days, and after the surge today it flipped to -1.44bp, so short sellers earn nearly 0.1% daily steadily.
A thin pool can be pushed up with little money; turnover twenty times open interest means the money just changed hands without staying, this is not accumulation but pure turnover.
Observing without chasing. If it stands back at 0.0075 and the fee rate turns positive, I admit I was wrong; if it breaks below 0.0054, it’s a second bottom test; I’ll wait until Sunday’s close.
Do you think this is a pump and dump, or real entry and turnover? I lean toward the former.
$BILL $BTC $ETH
#TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heard #BILL fee rate turned negative 📊 New Bull Markets Don't Bring Back Past Winners
Crypto market cap peaks are becoming increasingly fragmented across cycles. Capital doesn't simply return to previous leaders when the market recovers.
Instead, new narratives and projects compete for liquidity, leaving many former winners below their historical highs.Utility token all-time high market caps, 2021 to 2026 📊
2021: First utility wave
ADA $95B
DOT $54B
AVAX $32B
UNI $23B
LINK $23B
MATIC $21B
2022: Last highs, then collapse
LUNA $41B (then went to near zero)
NEAR $13B
2023: Rebuild
No large-cap utility token set a new record
2024: New narratives
TRX $38B
TON $20B
RENDER $5.3B
INJ $4.9B
TAO $4.8B
2025: Majors set records
ETH $597B
XRP $216B
BNB $191B
SOL $142B
SUI $16B
2026 so far: Revenue and privacy
ZEC $26B
HYPE $22B
XMR $15B🌃 Five holdings: two major coins, one public chain, one platform, one identity network
$BTC 82,355.8, up 0.51, ballast 📈 Asian session trading was scattered overnight, long-term chips hold a high proportion, short-term turnover is low, 82300 volatility narrowed. Futures basis is near flat, funds did not preemptively bet one-sided, grinding within the 82000 narrow range, direction awaits US stock market open and macro news
$ETH 2,433.95, up 1.70, high elasticity ⚡ Staking locks up part of the circulating supply, tradable volume is not large, buying pressure slightly increases elasticity noticeably more than BTC. After reclaiming 2400, no pullback overnight, whether 2400 can hold continuously is key to judging the quality of this catch-up rally
$SOL 105.62, up 1.41, active public chain 🔷 Circulating supply is small after staking lock-up, elasticity expands when the hotspot shifts to ecosystem applications. 105 currently has no independent catalyst, it is a normal beta follow of the market.
OKB 114.94, up 1.30, platform equity 🔴 Corresponds to fee discounts, new project lottery, and on-chain event qualifications, monthly burns circulating supply, not due to platform's own positive news.
$WLD Worldcoin, the identity network line 🌐 Establishes a unique global identity via iris scanning, WLD is the ecosystem governance and incentive token, account activity and identity registration progress affect circulating supply release. The narrative focuses on identity and data ownership in the AI era, with controversy centered on biometric data collection and privacy boundaries.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.Damn, one of ETH's biggest buyers is running out of steam, so who will take over now?
Tom Lee recently revealed that Bitmine already holds about 6 million ETH, accounting for 4.9% of the total supply, just 100,000 short of the 5% holding limit. According to him, once the limit is reached, they will stop buying.
Damn, this is exactly the awkward spot ETH is in right now. There’s such a big buyer continuously scooping up, yet the price still fell from above 2500 back down near 2400. When this buying pressure really stops, who will the market rely on then?
Moreover, even with capital flowing into the ETH spot ETF, the price hasn’t shown much improvement. Many are buying, but obviously many are selling too. I’m getting less and less patient with ETH’s rebound.
My plan is still to look for short opportunities on the rebound. If it can’t break through 2430–2450, I’ll consider light short positions with a stop loss at 2475, first targeting 2395, then 2360. If 2400 is directly broken, I won’t rush to chase; I’ll wait for a pullback confirmation before acting.
Of course, Bitmine stopping additional purchases doesn’t mean it will sell its existing holdings, so don’t confuse these two concepts. But a big buyer suddenly exiting new demand is definitely not good news for short-term sentiment.
I just want to ask, after buying 6 million ETH, and ETH still looking half-dead like this, after finishing the remaining 100,000, are they really expecting retail investors to carry the load?A fan of $UNITREE reached out to me before, shorted Unitree around 75, and got stuck.
Many friends still have the old impression of Unitree, thinking they can keep shorting blindly.
But Xi Jie noticed early on that the market has changed; with the conference and Q3 earnings expectations, the stock is very likely to rally. The strategy can no longer be just blindly shorting; it's time to prepare to switch to light long positions!
When the market hit the lowest point, Xi Jie immediately notified fans to exit. Everyone saw the subsequent movement, a strong rally from the low, reaching as high as 80.46!
If you had stubbornly held onto the short position, losses would only have grown bigger, and you might have been forced to cut losses at a high price during panic 💥💥
Those who followed the rhythm and took light long positions also secured good profits!After nearly 10 consecutive days of decline, SanDisk has already dropped to around 1316 in pre-market trading, leaving less than $100 room from the previous low of 1216. Continuing to short here is no longer cost-effective; the real focus should be on the "oversold + pre-earnings battle" window.
In the past month, SanDisk has retraced nearly 30%, but the fundamentals are not bad: last quarter revenue was $8.97 billion, gross margin 84.6%, Q1 guidance $10.3-10.8 billion, EPS $44-46. JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Nomura collectively voiced that concerns about storage decline are overblown and recommend buying on dips before earnings. The risk lies in the fact that this profit surge largely comes from price increases; if NAND prices soften, gross margin will be pressured before revenue.
From the market perspective, 1316 is very close to the previous low of 1216, and after continuous declines, the bearish momentum is waning. Tonight is more likely to see a corrective rebound after a low open: if 1300 holds, there is a chance to rebound to 1350-1370 intraday; if 1300 breaks down with volume, the downside targets are 1250 or even the previous low of 1216.
Short-term long: lightly test the 1300-1216 range with reduced volume and stabilize, stop loss at 1180, target 1350-1370. Short-term short: consider after resistance at 1350-1370 on rebound, stop loss at 1400, target 1300-1250. Earnings report lands on October 29, with historical post-earnings average volatility ±9.31%. Before that, bulls and bears will tug repeatedly; waiting for the right position is more important than guessing the direction.@懂币猫 This time there was no retraction on the bullish direction, but a fact was first acknowledged: the previous four-hour breakout has already failed, and the added positions should be exited when necessary. The overall direction remains unchanged, but that doesn't mean every added position is correct; continuing to hold low-level base positions doesn't mean that positions chased at high levels can be held through. This is the two-layer logic that needs to be unpacked most in the whole session. He said that the positions added yesterday and this morning did not make money and have been handled according to the original small-scale conditions. Trying to break out during consolidation will naturally result in floating profits being given back, fee losses, and slight losses. You can't turn positions originally used for trial and error into long-term holdings just because you want to wait for a big market move. First, look at $BTC. The opportunities in the past two days came from the four-hour downtrend line and a local triangle or wedge breakout. At that time, the discussion was to raise the stop-loss of the breakout position to around 82000. Then a strong retracement candlestick appeared, and the price returned to the original range. He believes this local structure has failed and redraws the chart instead of insisting on "already broken out." Therefore, around 82000 is the stop-loss logic for that breakout trade, not the bottom that the entire market can never fall below, nor the unified stop-loss price for all accounts. Those who did not enter at the same position but chased later will bear different drawdowns. He repeatedly reminds that if the entry is based on a small-scale breakout, then if the breakout fails, stop loss should be taken; do not rely on a larger timeframe bullish view to prolong the life of that position. However, he does not interpret this failure as the end of the entire rebound. In his judgment, the market is still in a larger consolidation range, the bottom This can never be a coincidence.
Someone created a new wallet yesterday and went long on oil.
Shortly after, news broke that the US and Israel are considering resuming attacks on Iran, which pushed oil prices up.
He now holds $450,000 in unrealized profits and is still holding.$TSLA Currently, Wall Street is highly divided on Tesla. Optimists are looking at the upcoming V13 version of full self-driving and the driverless taxi launch scheduled for October. This is Elon Musk's grand vision; once realized, Tesla will no longer just be a car seller but an AI mobility giant.
But why is the market underperforming? Because the short-term fundamentals don't meet institutional expectations. Although Q3 deliveries barely passed, everyone noticed it relied heavily on price cuts and promotions, severely compressing automotive gross margins. Compared to Nvidia's explosive real profits, Tesla's short-term financials are indeed "lean," causing many institutional funds to vote with their feet before the earnings report, selling off aggressively.
This is why I confidently entered a long position around 366.
First, this is called "bad news priced in advance." Institutions have long known about the margin decline and used sentiment to push the price down and shake out weak hands. By the time it reaches support levels, these negatives have actually been absorbed by the market.
Second, the price can't fall further. The 366 level is a strong previous support zone; when pushed down, it quickly rebounds, indicating funds are supporting the bottom.
Third, betting on October's expectations. No matter how poor the short-term performance is, as long as the Robotaxi launch event hasn't happened, the AI narrative remains. Capital always trades on expectations; after a deep drop, funds will enter early to position for upcoming positives.
This wave of returns is slightly low, so I'm stepping out for now, waiting for a better entry opportunity $XLM
Why doesn't it rise together with XRP despite being in the same sector?
In this morning's spot market snapshot, XLM's 24-hour price change was -0.81%, with a price range of 0.18027—0.18709 USDT.
XRP recorded a positive gain while XLM declined, reminding us that returns cannot be directly inferred from shared labels. Whether payment demand uses tokens and how long funds stay influence sustained buying pressure.
If the relative gap continues to widen, specific differences in business and supply should be identified; if there is no verifiable incremental growth, it is inappropriate to treat the sector narrative as a guarantee for a catch-up rally.$BTC J.P. Morgan calculates Bitcoin's long-term returns for the first time: an average of 20.9% per year, but compounded down to only 10%.
Where did the other half go? It was eaten by volatility.
Up 50% then down 50%: 100 → 150 → 75. Average return 0%, principal down 25%.
BTC's annualized volatility is about 55%, while the US stock market is about 18%. So the US stock forecast is barely discounted, but BTC's is cut in half.
Those using leverage need to account for this: leverage amplifies not only gains and losses but also this "volatility tax," and it amplifies faster than the leverage ratio.
How much remains in the long term depends not on the best year’s gains but on the worst year’s losses.
Not investment advice | Data: J.P. Morgan 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (reported by CoinDesk, Bitcoin.com, etc.) #摩根大通首次将比特币纳入长期收益预测 #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
OKX Who is the prophet, who can master the US stock market, the earnings leaderboard and overall rankings are waiting for you to sprint together and share the final grand prize
The first issue's post won the prize, continuing the good luck
Today we continue to study US stock Google. Currently, Google Cloud is in an explosive growth phase, with last quarter's revenue soaring 82% year-over-year to $24.8 billion. The external leasing of self-developed TPU clusters and the penetration of enterprise-level Gemini models make it not difficult for Google to beat market consensus in revenue and EPS
Google's biggest hidden risk lies in the repeated script of "better-than-expected earnings but stock price decline." Last quarter, Google also delivered revenue and profits far exceeding expectations, but due to a single quarter capital expenditure soaring to $44.9 billion, the company experienced its first quarterly negative free cash flow since 2004, and the stock price fell after the earnings report. This quarter, investors not only need to watch Google Cloud's growth rate but also whether TPU monetization can substantially boost the cloud business operating margin and bring free cash flow back on track
The market estimates there is over a 70% probability that Google's earnings report will beat expectations deBridge might be a cross-chain protocol that many people use without realizing it.
The Phantom wallet has integrated deBridge since around April 14, 2025, with cumulative stats as follows:
450,000 users;
1,018,493 orders, accounting for 17.5% of the total number of deBridge transactions since April 14;
$535.5 million in transaction volume, accounting for 3.7% of the total deBridge transaction volume since April 14.
With 17.5% of the transaction count and 3.7% of the transaction volume, it is evident that the Phantom wallet is a major source of ordinary retail users for deBridge.
deBridge, as a cross-chain infrastructure, is integrated into wallets like Phantom, OKX, and Bitget. A large number of retail users use deBridge for cross-chain transactions without being aware of it. $DBR #MetaQ3 revenue exceeds expectations, legal fees and AI expenses under pressure
The boss has something to say
Meta's Q3 earnings report was directly voted on by the market, with META down 4.35% and xMETA down 4.36%.
Revenue reached 64.6 billion, up 26% year-over-year, ad impressions increased by 10%, and unit price rose 14%, showing strong core business performance. However, operating profit dropped 37%, hit by a massive $9.89 billion legal expense. Even more alarming is the AI burn rate, with Q3 capital expenditure at 34.9 billion and free cash flow turning negative 2.12 billion; the full-year guidance is to spend between 135 to 145 billion. To raise funds, there is even a plan to introduce Class C shares with no voting rights.
I believe this is a typical example of the AI arms race backfiring. Profits are being devoured by both legal fees and AI infrastructure costs. No matter how profitable advertising is, it can't fill this bottomless pit. The market's patience for money burning without returns is decreasing, even giants have to fall.
The impact on crypto is indirect. Tech giants facing capital expenditure and cash flow pressure, if the AI narrative cools down overall and risk appetite contracts, Bitcoin will also be dragged down. But Bitcoin mainly depends on macro factors, oil prices, and the FOMC.
Yesterday, 83,000 was shorted all the way down, added on the rebound, and today it was taken down in a waterfall. Now watching if the 80,000 support level can hold; if not, expect a deeper pullback. Resistance is between 84,000 and 85,000. Do not chase the rise or kill the dip; set stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $BTC
Tesla and SpaceX didn't sell a single BTC in Q3, yet the price still slipped below 82,000, which is quite interesting.
The just-released financial reports show that Tesla and SpaceX did not reduce their Bitcoin holdings in Q3; Elon Musk's holdings remain unchanged. But BTC's current price is only 81,757, with a 24h high of 84,899, dropping over 2% from the opening at 83,575, hitting a low of 81,638. The big players aren't selling, yet the price is weak—so who exactly is offloading?
Looking outside the crypto market: Tesla's stock fell 5% pre-market, chip stocks declined, South Korea's KOSPI dropped over 4% intraday, and US stock market sentiment is terrible. BTC now seems to be moving with risk assets, less related to whether holders sell or not. But the futures side is strong: perpetual contract open interest is $24.95 billion at a high level, funding rate is still positive at 0.005%, and longs haven't withdrawn. Also, Kalshi just launched BTC-collateralized loans specifically for perpetual contract margin, with traditional capital still adding leverage in the futures market.
On one side, big players are hoarding coins and longs are holding firm with leverage; on the other, spot prices are dragged down by US stock market sentiment. It's a tug of war to see who will let go first.
So, where do you think this selling pressure is really coming from? Big players aren't selling, funding rates are positive, open interest is over 20 billion—under these conditions, will you keep your BTC long position tonight?
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $BTC This rebound looks difficult to sustain.
Initial jobless claims data released at 194,000, lower than both expectations and the previous value, confirming the labor market remains strong.
This data gives the Federal Reserve enough confidence to maintain high interest rates, dashing hopes for a near-term rate cut.
The high interest rate environment continues to drain liquidity, so funds naturally hesitate to flow into high-risk assets like crypto.
With macro bearish pressure overhead, the overall downtrend is already very clear.
Long positions are now in a passive state, trembling and watching, wondering if a V-shaped reversal can still come?
#With the October FOMC approaching, what uncertainties remain for the Fed pausing rate hikes? Employment is ridiculously good, so whose head is the interest rate hike knife hanging over?🔪
Tonight's initial jobless claims came in at only 194,000, below the expected 200,000 (previously 199,000 was revised to 200,000); continuing claims at 1.728 million slightly exceeded expectations. Employment is rock solid, adding another footnote to Washington's hawkish script.
$ETH dropped 2.64%, trading around 2405.
$BTC fell 2.15%, retreating near 81798.
$SOL declined 2.44%, hovering around 104.4.
This is bad news for the crypto world: the stronger employment is, the more firmly the interest rate hike boot lands📉. Across the network, $433 million liquidated in 24 hours, with longs accounting for over 60%, and over 100,000 people wiped out. Brent crude surged to 111.96, up 2.89%, while gold dropped 1.69%—the inflation chain is tightening, but safe-haven money isn't flowing into gold.
The large holders' long-short ratio dropped to 1.45, down 22.56% in a single day, indicating smart money is reducing longs; retail investors' long-short ratio rose 40%, with more bottom-fishers lining up. Large holders are exiting, retail is buying the dip—this combination always makes me bearish first. The area from 84900 to 85500 is the brightest minefield for short liquidations.
My framework is simple: if employment doesn't crack and oil prices don't fall, bets on rate hikes won't ease, and crypto remains against the wind. But if the 84900 area is pierced by a high-volume bullish candle, a short squeeze could directly push prices up to 87000—the profit and risk of shorts are two sides of the same coin.
Are you a short laughing, or a long holding on? Drop your position in the comments, let's see whose mindset breaks first tonight👇$APR is bearish before unlocking on 10-23. In the past 24 hours, long positions have been liquidated by $150,000, while short positions only $10,000; the ones losing money have consistently been the longs. The current price 0.02746 is not far from the intraday low of 0.02611. Within the 13.5% amplitude, every upward pull has been smashed back down. Contract open interest is only $10 million; with such a thin market, it cannot absorb a cliff-like surge in new supply. As long as those holding the chips hedge before unlocking, the pressure will be concentrated on the last day. We backtested large unlocks from 2024 to 2026; about three-quarters underperformed the market in the week before unlocking, with consistent directional samples before and after. The elevated high structure on the chart is from the previous market phase; now the moving averages are in a bearish alignment, and the supply event outweighs this old trend. The fee rate for all three phases is 0.0050%, just background information. Bullish reversal condition: reclaim and hold above 0.02964 before unlocking, invalidating the bearish view. After unlocking, with no stable direction, we will reassess based on the market then. Only two weeks left! The final battle before the ZEC NU7 upgrade
Market Snapshot
$ZEC is currently trading around 1,266, with a 24-hour increase of about +8.5%. Intraday, it once touched the 1,325–1,250 range, which is the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears.
Driving Logic: NU7 Upgrade Countdown
The core catalyst is the NU7 mainnet activation on November 5, which will reduce block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, and 60% of fees will go into reserves. However, caution is needed as approximately 22,263 ZEC (about $30 million) in the Sprout pool face a soft freeze due to the v4 transaction format being disabled. The migration window is only two weeks, and some tokens may be passively locked.
Contract Structure: Doubts on Rebound Quality
Open interest has dropped to 17.5M with shorts accounting for 1.1M. Short-term pressure has shifted back to the bulls. Funding rates are slightly positive, but chasing buy orders are not dominant.
My Strategy
The NU7 narrative is real, but the current rebound structure is a "expectation-driven, leverage contraction". If it holds above 1,266 and open interest continues to decline, this round of recovery judgment fails. Do not chase highs; wait for structural confirmation.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Major breakdown! Tesla is cutting the overall vehicle budget while pouring money into securing substrate production capacity; the underlying logic has changed!
Tesla's financial report shows budget cuts but also an 830 million investment to expand substrate production! The AI narrative has shifted tracks—don't be fooled by Tesla's earnings report yesterday!
Vehicle expenses have been cut, sales targets lowered, but at the same time, Tesla is heavily locking in Korean FC-BGA substrate capacity with a five-year long-term contract.
FC-BGA is an essential carrier for AI chips. Ibiden monopolizes 70% of the market, and capacity is tight. Nvidia is simultaneously investing heavily to expand production, aiming to increase capacity 2.5 times within three years. The giants are not just competing for goods but for the certainty of computing power deployment.
Key point: Tesla is no longer betting on car sales; its focus has shifted to the Dojo and Optimus underlying computing power supply chain.
Advice for the crypto AI coin community: this production line will not affect the BTC market in the short term; the production cycle is too late. But recognize that capital is now investing in AI underlying hardware, which is a solid backbone.
Most AI concept coins on the market are just riding the hype without real supply chain support, making it hard to sustain after the speculation.
#特斯拉Q3汽车毛利率回升，自由现金流转正 $TSLA Here's a true story for tonight, way more exciting than those Trump tariff news. A guy in Tianjin named Qian Zhimin ran an illegal fundraising scheme, took off to the UK with the money, converted the loot into 61,800 bitcoins, which have been locked up by the UK police ever since. Now the domestic prosecutors have applied for confiscation, Tianjin No. 2 Intermediate People's Court has filed the case, and they've given six months for the victims to come forward and claim their rights. Just think about the scale—tens of thousands of BTC, who wouldn't be envious hearing this? Previously, if no one claimed such seized criminal assets in the UK, half would go to the police and half to the Home Office—pure free loot. Now the UK Supreme Court has recognized Chinese law, basically changing this batch of coins from "unexpected income of the UK Treasury" to "recovery targets for Chinese victims." When I saw this, my first reaction wasn't bullish or bearish, but how many years this case has dragged on and whether the victims will live to see the outcome. On the market side, the price dropped 2% tonight to 81,793, volume nearly doubled the usual, but it doesn't matter—this kind of news affects judicial progress, not the candlestick chart. Some who are holding say they just broke even last night. I think, the coin won't rise just because you believe in it, everyone knows that, but it's hard to actually do. $BTC Starknet 93.5% approve researching detaching from Ethereum to create its own quantum-resistant L1.
On the day the vote started, $STRK surged 25% in a single day; today the results are out, and the market shows no reaction at all. What would be the amount today if you invested 500 yuan annually into the previous year's S&P champion?
Starting from 2013, with 500 USD.
There are only four rules:
① Buy the previous year's S&P 500 top performer every year
② Buy in full at the beginning of the year, sell at the end of the year
③ Add 500 USD each year
④ Each transaction has a 2 USD fee
From PHM, NFLX, to AMD, TSLA, NVDA, and then PLTR, SNDK.
This investment path has experienced major US stock market corrections, the COVID-19 pandemic, aggressive interest rate hikes, and the global AI wave.
I ran the asset evolution from 2013 to 2026 through AI.
Backtesting to October 2026, the principal of 7,000 USD grew to about 3.03 million USD, which is 137 times the amount of index investing over the same period (about 22,000 USD).Examine token economics and unlocking pressure. A reasonable inflation/deflation mechanism, a clear supply schedule, and team/investor lock-up arrangements are crucial. A large amount of tokens about to be unlocked can create selling pressure when the market is fragile. At the same time, check if there is real revenue inflow (such as fee buyback and burn), which is more convincing than a "roadmap story."
Liquidity and market cap stratification. Large-cap altcoins (ETH, SOL, etc.) have better depth and lower manipulation risk, suitable as satellite allocations; small and mid-cap coins require strict position control to ensure that even a 50% drop is within an acceptable range. Pay attention to relative strength against Bitcoin: only when Bitcoin dominance is stable or declining and most top altcoins outperform BTC is it a rotation signal. Avoid chasing highs at the peak of a single narrative. In the futures market, when prices go down but the holding costs still lean towards the long side, I usually don't rush to say "it's oversold." It's somewhat like when commodities pull back, the market weakens, but the optimistic expectations inside haven't completely faded; the two forces tug against each other, so it's worth taking a closer look.
At 8 PM Beijing time, $BTC was quoted at $81,723, down 2.11% in 24 hours, with a funding rate still at 0.0013% per hour; ETH and SOL fell 2.76% and 2.40% respectively during the same period, with positive funding rates as well. The fear and greed index was 68, in the greed zone. This set of market data comes from Hyperliquid perpetual contract public data.
My judgment is that this looks more like a pullback where optimistic sentiment hasn't fully cooled down, and it shouldn't be directly treated as panic liquidation. Prices falling while funding rates remain positive indicates that going long still requires paying holding costs; the index still being in the greed zone also doesn't support the idea that "everyone is scared." However, the funding rates of crypto perpetuals can't be interpreted the same way as traditional futures' basis; data from a single platform doesn't represent the entire market.
Among contracts with trading volumes over $20 million, LIT rose 8.40%, WLD fell 8.63%, showing clear divergence. I separate risk temperature and local strength/weakness, and don't judge overall warming just by a single gain leaderboard. Are there friends who also came from traditional markets? When you encounter a market where prices fall but funding rates remain positive, do you pay more attention to funding rate changes or sentiment indicators?#MetaQ3RevenueBeat
Q3 revenue: $64.60B (+26% YoY), beating $63.34B estimates.
EPS: $3.83 vs. $6.54 expected—but a $9.89B legal charge dragged results down. Adjusted EPS was $7.40.
The deeper signal: expenses surged 68%, operating margin fell from 40% to 20%, and free cash flow turned negative at -$2.12B.
My take: Meta’s ad engine remains powerful, but AI spending and rising costs are the real test. Watch Q4 guidance and capital expenditure—not revenue alone.
$META $xMETA $META revenue increased 26% year-over-year to 64.6 billion, EPS 7.40 better than the expected 6.54, but a one-time legal expense of 9.89 billion caused operating profit to decline 37% year-over-year.
Q3 capital expenditure was 34.9 billion, free cash flow turned negative, and there is a plan to issue non-voting Class C shares, with a pre-market drop of about 5%.
Assessment: "Strong revenue, heavy expenses," likely to close down on the first day.
#MetaQ3营收超预期，法律费用与AI支出承压 SOL has fallen from the high of 10-21 to the current 105.76, dropping more than 3 points.
Many people panic watching the drop and start wondering whether to exit at just a 3% decline. This way of thinking is flawed. Whether to exit during a pullback depends on the structure of the pullback.
What does structure mean? Three things: whether volume has shrunk, whether the drop was on heavy volume (indicating urgent selling), or on light volume (usually meaning no one is stepping in to buy, not active selling). Whether the rhythm is broken—dropping 3% in one day versus slowly grinding down 3% over three days; the former indicates panic, the latter is a shakeout. Whether support has been broken; the bottom on 10-18 was above 100, and there is still a 5-point buffer from there.
If any of these three show problems, then it’s time to reconsider. Looking only at the percentage drop is like carving a mark on a boat to find a sword—it’s pointless. A 3% drop is normal volatility in a choppy market, but near the end of a trend it could signal a reversal. Different market conditions mean percentages can’t be used as a fixed rule.
In this current pullback, after the high on 10-21, there have been two days of narrow consolidation with volume more than halved compared to the high day. The range between 106 and 105.5 is being ground back and forth without any single-day sharp plunge. This pattern is a shakeout, not a run for the exit.
Support is still holding below; the bottom on 10-18 has not been tested since. As long as it holds, the short-term resistance above does not change direction.
During pullbacks, don’t focus on the percentage drop, focus on the structure. The drop percentage is just a number; the structure determines where it goes next. $SOL $GRVT has a fatal structural flaw—the circulating supply is only 11.4%, with nearly 90% of the tokens still locked, and the holdings are extremely concentrated, with just a few wallets controlling the vast majority. This combination looks like a "light float, easy to pump" scenario, but in reality, it means "chips are concentrated in the hands of a few, and could be dumped at any time."
More critically, there is a large unlock at the end of November, releasing 73.63 million tokens at once, which is a considerable proportion of the circulating supply. This structural selling pressure is out in the open; if the price wants to go up, it first needs to see if these newly released chips agree. The sharper the short-term rise, the greater the subsequent selling pressure.
High-level stagnation and insufficient volume support mark the best entry point for shorts. After opening shorts, there was almost no resistance, and the price steadily declined to the bottom. This kind of short-selling trend in a low-circulation small coin is much more comfortable to ride than chasing longs.US initial jobless claims data released! 194,000 people, below the expected 200,000 and also below the previous 199,000.
Employment data continues to be strong, and the labor market remains tight. In crypto terms: expectations for rate cuts continue to cool down, and high interest rates will have to persist longer.
Employment resilience exceeds expectations, supporting the Federal Reserve in maintaining high interest rates, and the market's bets on short-term rate cuts have further declined. The US dollar and US Treasury yields are likely to be pushed higher, while crypto assets themselves are very sensitive to interest rates. In a high interest rate environment, funds prefer fixed income, reducing the attractiveness of risk assets.
Tonight's market should pay attention to this type of data as a macro signal that is somewhat bearish for $BTC and $ETH. Coupled with Tesla's earnings report that cut valuations and the collective pullback in South Korean chip stocks, risk assets are already weak, and this data adds another layer of pressure.
#特斯拉Q3汽车毛利率回升，自由现金流转正 $SOXL itself is a 3x leveraged product, and yet some people are still opening long contracts on it. This is no longer investing; it's gambling with your life!
SOXL is a 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF. When semiconductors pull back even slightly, it drops three times as much. Bulls stacking another layer of contract leverage on top are essentially playing leverage on leverage, and any slight disturbance can trigger immediate liquidation! Currently, the average cost for bulls is 96.7, and the price has already fallen below the cost line. Nearly 80% of bulls are losing money. Under these long positions, there is a string of liquidation prices lined up. If the manipulative sellers push down lightly, it will trigger a chain liquidation. Hurry and go short!Just saw a whale reshuffling their portfolio, really made me laugh.
This morning, they closed all 250 BTC long positions.
Average price 84599, made $560,000 profit, pocketed the gains.
Logically, after making money, they should take a break, right?
They didn’t.
They took that money and immediately added 5219 ETH long positions at an average price of 2502.
And the result?
ETH didn’t rally at all, currently priced at 2396.
The ETH longs they just added are now showing an unrealized loss of $2.52 million.
Bitcoin just tasted some sweetness, then immediately got beaten hard on Ethereum.
Now they hold 15,000 ETH longs, with the average price pushed up to 2601, and the overall unrealized loss keeps growing. Meanwhile, the ETH/BTC rate keeps dropping, down over 8% since the start of the month.
Made $560,000 but didn’t exit, instead trying to bottom-fish a weakening coin.
This move is no different from us retail traders "selling too early and rushing to chase another."
Do you think they can eventually break even on these 15,000 ETH?
The above is compiled from on-chain data and does not constitute any trading advice.
$BTC $ETH 表面看是OKB要复苏、X Layer要爆发，底下真正在动的其实是资金偏好换了口味。 你猜这波热闹里，谁在认真买单？ 我翻完那串叙事，第一反应不是兴奋，是有点想笑——OKX Ice被描述成"首个1:1锚定真实股票、保留股息和投票权"的加密协议，还挂着SEC创新豁免、TSV牌照、AMM池子拉华尔街做LP。听起来像把纽交所和Uniswap缝在一起，故事确实漂亮。但越漂亮的叙事，越要问一句：现在交易的是预期，还是已经落地的深度？ 关键细节在dealer豁免：只要用自有资金在TSV的AMM池里做市、满足披露和记录要求，就不用走传统做市商注册。这确实降低了Citadel、Virtu、Jane Street这类机构的入场门槛。逻辑链是通的——机构LP进来，X Layer的TVL抬升，OKB作为生态资产被重新定价。偏多路径很清楚：股票代币化是今年少数还能讲出增量资金的叙事，OKX把链、所、牌照三件事串起来，资金偏好从纯 meme 往"有现金流映射的资产"挪一挪，不是没可能。 但落差也在这里。叙事里全是"即将""或许""会变得更好"，而真正决定承接力的是池子开出来后的实际做市深度、股票代币的买卖价差、以Here's a fact:
$META and Tesla's earnings reports actually show decent numbers. Meta's revenue is 64.6 billion, EPS 3.83, both exceeding expectations, and the Q4 guidance midpoint is also above market consensus; Tesla's adjusted EPS is 0.48, free cash flow is 1.53 billion, also beating expectations.
But pre-market: Meta fell over 1%, Tesla dropped 5%, $IBM down 5.7%, Lam Research down 8.4%. Chip stocks fared worse—Nvidia down 2.3%, Intel down 4.9%, AMD down 4.1%, Micron down 3.4%, SanDisk down 3.9%.
The issue isn't "how the earnings performed," but "where the money was spent." Meta raised its full-year capital expenditure to $135 billion to $145 billion, while Tesla cut capital expenditure from over $25 billion to around $20 billion.
One is ramping up spending, the other is pulling back, but the market's reaction to both is selling—because the IBM CEO's comment hit a nerve: enterprise customers are questioning whether AI investments can deliver quantifiable returns.
When the U.S. stock market opens tonight, it won't be about who beats earnings expectations, but who can convince the market beyond "beating expectations" that the AI money being burned can be recouped. I haven't changed my U.S. stock positions and don't plan to add tonight.
Do you think this AI stock correction is a buying opportunity, or a signal that the capital expenditure narrative is starting to loosen? $SNDK 12-hour full market bearish bias, all three major assets under simultaneous pressure
$BTC 81830 (-2.82%)｜Shorts 52.09%
$ETH 2403.68 (-2.99%)｜Shorts 52.67%
$SOL 104.43 (-2.57%)｜Shorts 53.61% (highest)
The short positions for all three exceed half, indicating a consistent release of short-term bearish sentiment. SOL faces the heaviest selling pressure, ETH leads with the deepest decline.
But the key is the degree: short positions are all between 52%–54%, indicating a mild bearish bias, far from extreme crowding (which is usually 65%+). This means a large number of long positions remain intact, and a spike and rebound could sweep shorts before dropping again at any time.
Conclusion: The trend of bearish bias holds, but avoid full position exposure, maintain good defense, and wait for a rebound to provide a better entry point for shorting than chasing now. #10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Last night, Musk's two companies released earnings reports, basically saying: Tesla is bleeding, SpaceX is printing money, but the two are going to merge.
Let's look at the data first, the comparison is painfully stark.
$TSLA: Q3 revenue was 28.05 billion, almost zero growth year-over-year; operating profit was only 718 million, a 56% plunge year-over-year. Auto revenue dropped 3%, and energy storage business was far below expectations. But strangely, gross margin rose to 19.6%, free cash flow unexpectedly turned positive at 1.53 billion, and capital expenditures were cut to 4.73 billion. Profit collapsed on one side, cash remained stable on the other, market opinions diverged greatly, and after-hours trading fell more than 3% after the earnings report.
$SPCX: Q3 revenue was 14.575 billion, a 161% year-over-year surge; net profit was 4.4 billion, compared to a loss of 1.05 billion in the same period last year. The scariest part is the AI business (super intelligence) revenue of 7.56 billion, an 830% year-over-year jump, surpassing Starlink for the first time as the largest revenue source. JPMorgan directly raised the target price from $240 to $500.
My view:
Tesla is currently using profits from car sales to fund the AI and robotics transformation.
But note, Musk said the merger requires 50% approval from all Tesla shareholders, a very high threshold. This is just an "exploration" phase, don't take it as a done deal to chase.
My habit is: those who chase the news often end up being the last to benefit. #SpaceX业绩大增，与特斯拉合并能否推进？ The circulating supply accounts for only about 23% of the total supply. How should we view the valuation of $HYPE?
Discussions about HYPE's valuation inevitably revolve around the huge gap between circulating market cap and FDV. The circulating market cap is $17.53 billion, while the FDV is $75.29 billion, a difference of about 4.3 times, meaning nearly 80% of the tokens have not yet entered circulation. The release of this supply is a function of time, not a probabilistic event.
Relying solely on circulating market cap for horizontal comparison will systematically underestimate future dilution pressure. A more rigorous evaluation framework is to compare the release curve with the revenue curve: if the circulating supply doubles in the coming years while protocol revenue grows in tandem, dilution can be absorbed by fundamentals; if revenue stagnates while tokens continue to be released, the price per unit will face structural pressure.
Hyperliquid's revenue capability ranks among the top in the same sector, which is the core argument supporting the FDV, but the strength of this support depends on the sustainability of the revenue. The conclusion is clear: circulating market cap measures current pricing, FDV measures future counterparties. For low-circulation-ratio assets like $HYPE, the latter should carry more reference weight.$BCH
The pullback exceeds BTC, has the rotation of established assets paused?
In this morning's spot market snapshot, BCH's 24-hour change was -2.06%, with a price range of 278.9—290.7 USDT.
BTC is close to sideways while BCH is pulling back, indicating that rotation does not necessarily continue just because the overall market is stable. Payment use cases and short-term trading demand are driven differently; daily fund flows cannot be explained by long-term use cases.
If the overall market stabilizes but BCH continues to lose relative advantage, short-term catch-up expectations should be withdrawn; if the relative price stops falling and there is continuous support, then observe whether an independent trend is re-established.Core DAO Official Nodes Fully Withdrawn! Is "Decentralization" Just a Facade?
Core DAO officially announced the gradual withdrawal of its official block-producing validation nodes, fully transferring block production rights to independent validators. The official narrative is a gradual move towards decentralization. However, given the reward loophole incident on 8.31, the market finds it hard to interpret this purely as positive news.
Initially, the official nodes served as a temporary stabilizing fallback role. Now that they are exiting, on the surface, the bookkeeping rights are handed over to the community; but the core risk remains unchanged: the validator pool size is still relatively small, constituting a small-circle coordinated consensus rather than a permissionless, decentralized proof-of-work consensus like Bitcoin. The previous successful hard forks essentially relied on a few validators synchronizing collectively and cooperating with the project team, with weak autonomous veto power.
On one hand, the withdrawal of official nodes is a gesture towards decentralization; on the other hand, the scars in the token economy remain: ghost token sell pressure, reward contract security vulnerabilities, and unresolved doubts about highly centralized governance.
Node withdrawal does not automatically mean decentralization. If independent validators still align closely with the project team's will, merely replacing the executing entities while following unified decisions, decentralization easily becomes a marketing slogan. Whether this move is a step towards decentering or just a post-incident reputation repair depends on whether truly independent validators emerge who dare to oppose the DAO's opinions.444 million tokens unlocked monthly, no matter how much the price rises, someone will absorb it — but what they absorb is selling pressure. $IOST perpetual 10x short, floating profit +411.40%.
IOST has a maximum supply of 90 billion, with about 36 billion in circulation, and monthly unlocks continuously release chips. In September, 70 million old tokens were burned to improve the short-term scarcity narrative, but relative to the unlock volume, it’s still a drop in the bucket; the long-term supply inflation structure remains unchanged.
This decline is exactly the supply logic overpowering the narrative logic: the v4.0.0 upgrade brought an emotional pulse, with trading volume expanding sixfold, but the speed of capital realization outpaced the narrative fermentation speed, causing the price to return to the pre-upgrade range.
Looking ahead, the previous low at 0.000526 is the last line of defense; breaking below it opens new downside space. If the rebound cannot break through the opening range with volume, it remains a weak rebound. Before supply pressure is resolved, 10x long positions should not be stubborn, and short positions should be taken profit in batches. $BTC $ETH
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $TSLA After reviewing this earnings report, my judgment is: the core business has stabilized, market expectations have improved, and several industries will be directly affected.
First is the energy storage and power equipment sectors; the data in this earnings report highlights this area. The gross margin of large-scale energy storage business exceeded 33%, and the installed capacity of energy storage increased simultaneously, which will directly benefit domestic upstream and downstream companies involved in energy storage integration and inverters.
Second, the autonomous driving and robotics-related industry chain will also receive positive momentum. The usage proportion of FSD continues to rise, the Robotaxi project is progressing steadily, and the Optimus humanoid robot has entered trial production. Sub-segments such as intelligent driving chips, sensors, and reducers will attract capital attention in the short term.
Regarding the market, short-term and medium-to-long-term perspectives should be judged separately. In the short term, the vehicle business gross margin has rebounded to around 18%, and operating cash flow has turned positive, providing fundamental support for the stock price. There is a significant chance for the stock price to rise during the earnings release phase. However, I personally remain cautious as net profit still declined year-over-year, and the company will need to invest heavily in capital expenditures going forward. Funds that previously bet early on the earnings momentum may have the need to sell and realize profits, so after a short-term surge, there is a high probability of entering a period of volatility and adjustment.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ The entire market is red, $LIT has risen 23% in a week, but I won’t chase it for now.
At 0:00 Beijing time today, this 4-hour candle saw LIT jump from 3.47 directly to 3.98, with trading volume several times the usual.
It hasn’t hit a new high since, currently around 3.69, down more than 7% from the peak.
There are two catalysts.
Delphi Digital’s 10/20 report grouped Lighter with Robinhood and Hyperliquid, calling it the “clearest second choice.”
The founder also said they plan to apply to the CFTC for trading and clearing licenses in November.
But the license application is only planned, not yet submitted, let alone approved.
Half of the team and investors’ tokens will start unlocking monthly at the end of January next year, about 13.5 million tokens in the first month.
I think this counter-trend rise is mainly because the overall market is weak, and funds are clustering into a few strong coins; the story hasn’t been realized yet.
Chasing in at 3.7 now doesn’t feel very worthwhile.
I’ll first watch if the 3.62 level, tested twice on the 4-hour chart today, can hold; if it holds, then see if it can reclaim 3.9.
If the 4-hour closes below 3.45, which is the start of this rise, this judgment fails.
Do you think LIT will first return to 3.9 this week, or drop back to 3.45?
$LIT $HYPE $BTC
#Circle稳定币公链Arc上线 THE #TRADING DESKS ARE BUSY. THEIR POSITIONS ARE SHRINKING.
Crypto derivatives turnover: +19% to $226.6B.
Open interest: -2.46% to $141.8B.
Liquidations: +52% to $431.1M.
DeFi took a heavier hit:
$CRV -8.2% | $ENA -7.2%
This looks more like leverage being flushed than fresh conviction entering.
The signal to watch next: does open interest rebuild alongside price?
#DeFi #CRV #ENA #CryptoTesla's earnings report exploded but fell 3% after hours! Cutting expenses + slowing robots, has the market fully priced in the good news?
Tesla's Q3 cash flow turned positive, without the expected large consumption, but the stock price still fell about 3% after hours.
Key data highlights:
Revenue of $28.05 billion, adjusted EPS of $0.48, both exceeding market expectations (revenue $27.88 billion, EPS 0.43)
GAAP gross margin rose to 19.6%, an improvement of 1.6 percentage points year-over-year.
Free cash flow recorded +$1.53 billion, far better than the previous market estimate of about -$4.9 billion. The call revealed the full-year capital expenditure guidance was lowered to about $20 billion, and the humanoid robot Optimus development pace slowed.
After hours, the stock briefly surged, then quickly turned negative. Closed at 386.47 on October 21, after-hours around 373.63, down about 3.3%.
Personal view:
The hard data indeed exceeded expectations, representing a good news realization. But the current stock price is trading more on the Robotaxi and robot narrative.
Cutting expenses and slowing Optimus means delaying the high-growth story, so the market chooses to realize gains and exit first. No chasing highs for now, continue to watch.
If it can hold above 388.84 (previous high), then consider following a breakout;
If the daily line effectively breaks below 349.33 (previous low), abandon the bottom-fishing idea.
What do you guys think?
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ $ZEC
Buy more as it falls? This address has an unrealized profit of $22.94 million and still dares to add $9.08 million more to the ZEC long position
ZEC's movement tonight is quite interesting. The 24-hour high touched 1368, the low dropped to 1226, and now it’s hovering around 1260. Right at this sell-off moment, an on-chain address reversed and added nearly $9.08 million more to its long position, with total unrealized profits stacking up to $22.94 million.
If it were me, I would have taken profits on most of it already. This guy not only doesn’t take profits but adds to the position, clearly thinking it’s not over yet. But the market isn’t cooperating: perpetual positions total $150 million, the funding rate is positive at 0.01%, longs are still paying shorts, yet the price has retraced 8 points from the high.
This 24-hour volatility exceeds 11%, making ZEC one of the most volatile major coins right now. Adding to a profitable long like this is a bet—if you’re right, it’s faith; if you’re wrong, you give all the profits back, no middle ground.
Would you follow such a profitable long adding more? If you had $22.94 million in unrealized profits, would you take half off the table first or hold overnight betting on a new high? #ZEC #PrivacyCoin #FuturesTrading #CryptoReview
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Looking at the Q3 2026 earnings reports so far, my feeling is that in the US stock market, TSMC and ASML have firmly confirmed the AI demand, and the chip shortage continues; this sector has the strongest fundamentals. But Netflix's growth is starting to slow down, and although Meta's revenue is strong, it is aggressively spending on building AI, with profits being squeezed by legal fees and capital expenditures, indicating that tech giants have officially moved from the profit-making stage to the stage of burning money to secure the future.
The A-share market is even more extreme. Changxin Technology has pushed the DRAM cycle to the extreme, with net profit forecasts for the first three quarters soaring above 130 billion yuan, representing the most satisfying realization of the boom; CATL's volume is still surging, and energy storage is also strong, but profit growth is dropping rapidly, indicating that price wars and cost pressures have started to hurt profits.
From an investor's perspective on the upcoming trend, I personally think:
The semiconductor memory chain (especially DRAM) currently has the clearest logic, with both volume and price rising, and no turning point seen in the short term.
US tech stocks will focus more on spending efficiency next; Google's, Microsoft's, and Amazon's spending guidance next week will be critical. If they continue to ramp up spending wildly without clear returns, valuations will come under pressure.
Profit elasticity in consumer and some new energy sectors is declining, and the market will continue to differentiate, requiring selection of targets with real pricing power or those still in an uptrend.
Simply put, AI hardware is still in a high boom, while software and some consumer sectors are beginning to diverge. The upcoming market is likely not a broad rally but a continuation of the strong getting stronger and the weak being eliminated $BTC $ETH
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？ Alpenglow has launched, but SOL is cheaper than before the upgrade; I’m not chasing this wave of good news yet.
OKX SOL/USDT spot: The 1-hour candle before the upgrade closed at 106.76, the highest at 109.22 early this morning, and back to 104.23 at 8 PM.
OKX SOL perpetual positions are about 357 million USD, roughly 355 million before the upgrade, with leverage barely changed.
Around 10 PM Beijing time last night, Alpenglow took over consensus on the Solana mainnet, with a final confirmation target of about 150 milliseconds.
This is just the first phase, Votor; the second phase, Rotor, is not yet scheduled.
I think the upgrade is solid, but it doesn’t directly bring buying pressure; the date was already public, and after launch it feels more like a realization, plus the market is weak today.
Watching the 4-hour close: if it breaks below today’s low of 103.54, I’ll keep waiting; if it climbs back above 109.22, it means the market is starting to acknowledge it, and I’ll retract my judgment.
For a review of how the price moves after the good news lands, you can follow this account.
Do you think SOL’s short-term pullback is “selling the fact,” or is the upgrade’s positive impact underestimated by the market?
$SOL
#Solana迎Alpenglow升级，目标150毫秒确认